Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising popularity of low-volatility fixed income plus (multi-asset) funds among investors due to market fluctuations and structural changes, highlighting the emergence of fund managers specializing in this area who aim for higher returns than traditional fixed income products [1][4]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - Feng Fan, a unique fixed income plus fund manager at Yinhua Fund, has demonstrated the new trend of applying quantitative methods in managing fixed income plus products, with her fund outperforming the CSI 300 Index in most years over the past five years [4][6]. - Feng Fan's investment framework emphasizes a top-down approach, focusing on overall portfolio management and risk-return characteristics before asset allocation, which she refers to as "portfolio management + quantitative methods" [14][15]. - The importance of the overall portfolio is prioritized over individual asset classes, ensuring that asset allocation serves the portfolio's objectives rather than jeopardizing it [15][16]. Group 2: Tactical Asset Allocation - Feng Fan's tactical asset allocation principles include matching asset allocation with the macro environment rather than making predictions about future economic changes, believing that understanding the present is more reliable than forecasting [18][19]. - She advocates for utilizing the multi-asset and multi-strategy features of fixed income plus products to achieve higher risk-adjusted returns, adjusting equity exposure based on the risk-return ratio of stocks and convertible bonds [20]. - Feng Fan also employs a contrarian approach to tactical asset allocation, taking advantage of extreme market pessimism to make opportunistic investments while maintaining strict control over drawdowns [21][22]. Group 3: Risk Management - A significant aspect of Feng Fan's fund management is drawdown management, which is divided into pre-, during, and post-event phases, with specific targets set for maximum drawdown based on expected annual returns [25][26]. - During the management period, dynamic adjustments are made based on the win rate and odds of the asset allocation, with a focus on reducing correlations among factors to manage drawdowns effectively [26][27]. - Post-event management involves assessing portfolio volatility and implementing risk warning mechanisms to reduce exposure when drawdown targets are breached, ensuring a disciplined risk control approach [26][27].

Core Viewpoint - The current AI infrastructure investment by major tech companies is significantly underestimated, with potential implications for future depreciation costs and a looming supply-demand imbalance that could lead to a price war by 2027 [1][3]. Group 1: Capital Expenditure Trends - Major players like Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle are projected to have capital expenditures as a percentage of sales reach 26% by 2027, nearing the peak of 32% seen during the internet bubble [2]. - The actual scale of investment is likely underestimated due to the increasing use of off-balance-sheet financing tools like leasing, which accelerates data center expansion without fully reflecting in traditional capital expenditure figures [2][5]. - Microsoft and Oracle are expected to see their capital expenditure to sales ratios rise significantly, with Microsoft projected to increase from 28% to 38% and Oracle from 41% to 58% by fiscal year 2026 [8]. Group 2: Depreciation Costs and Future Implications - Analysts at Bank of America highlight that the market is underestimating future depreciation expenses, with a projected shortfall of nearly $16.4 billion in depreciation costs for Google, Amazon, and Meta by 2027 [16][18]. - The trend of increasing capital expenditures will lead to accelerated depreciation and amortization (D&A) expenses starting in 2026, as these companies ramp up their investments [16][18]. - The lifespan of AI-related assets, such as GPUs, is shorter than traditional servers, with effective lifespans potentially only three to five years, which could further increase depreciation costs [20][21]. Group 3: Supply-Demand Dynamics and Pricing Strategies - There is a risk of overcapacity in the AI infrastructure market, with supply potentially exceeding demand by 2027, leading to aggressive pricing strategies among major tech firms to maintain utilization rates [25][30]. - The increasing similarity in performance among large language models may further commoditize infrastructure services, exacerbating pricing pressures [26]. - Major companies like Meta are investing heavily in new data centers, with significant projects expected to come online between 2026 and 2029, indicating a continued push for capacity expansion [28].

Core Insights - The upcoming "Triple Witching Day" on Friday is set to be the largest in history, with over $5 trillion in U.S. stock options and futures contracts expiring, which is expected to inject more uncertainty into market trends [1] - "Triple Witching Day" occurs on the third Friday of each quarter, when stock index futures, stock index options, and individual stock options all expire simultaneously [1] - Goldman Sachs options expert John Marshall estimates that over $5.3 trillion in nominal value of options will expire this Friday, including $3 trillion in S&P 500 index options and $935 billion in individual stock options [1] - The total nominal value of expiring options is equivalent to 8% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 index, marking the highest scale for September's "Triple Witching Day" in history [1] - According to options analysis firm SpotGamma, nearly 90% of the expiring positions are call options, and as these positions are closed, the long stock positions held by traders for hedging will be unwound, indicating a significant loss of market buying support [1] - For short-term market trends, Goldman Sachs predicts that the market's rebound momentum is likely to continue until the options expiration event is completed, which is typically associated with a "gamma squeeze" effect before expiration, followed by a pullback in the following week [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the successful launch of the new generation of the Zhiji LS6, highlighting its potential to disrupt the SUV market and establish Zhiji as a leader in the intelligent electric vehicle sector [2][4][20]. Group 1: Product Launch and Market Response - The new generation Zhiji LS6 received over 10,000 pre-orders within 27 minutes of its launch, indicating strong market demand [6][24]. - Prior to its launch, the LS6 had already accumulated over 50,000 pre-orders during the Chengdu Auto Show, showcasing significant consumer interest [2][6]. - The LS6 is positioned to become a top contender in the 200,000 to 300,000 yuan SUV market, potentially ranking among the top three [2][24]. Group 2: Strategic Positioning and Technology - The LS6 employs a "Davis Double Hit" strategy, creating a strong experiential loop that alleviates consumer anxiety and drives sales [4][20]. - The vehicle features the "Hengxing Super Range Extender" technology, which aims to address charging anxiety by providing a comprehensive solution for users [9][12]. - Zhiji's "Lingxi Digital Chassis 2.0" is designed to outperform competitors in driving control and safety, leveraging advanced electronic architecture for continuous OTA updates [16][19]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Consumer Insights - The article notes that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has stagnated, with many consumers still favoring traditional fuel vehicles due to practical concerns [8][12]. - The LS6 targets the pain points of potential electric vehicle buyers, such as charging infrastructure and performance anxiety, positioning itself as a solution that combines the benefits of electric and range-extended vehicles [12][25]. - The pricing strategy of the LS6, starting at 197,900 yuan, is seen as a competitive move to attract consumers in a highly contested market segment [22][24]. Group 4: Brand Evolution and Future Outlook - Since its establishment in 2020, Zhiji has aimed to position itself as a luxury brand within the SAIC Group, with aspirations to rival Tesla [21][29]. - The successful launch of the LS6 is viewed as a pivotal moment for Zhiji, potentially transforming it from a new player to a leader in the intelligent electric vehicle market [27][34]. - The article emphasizes that the LS6's success is not just a standalone achievement but a reflection of the SAIC Group's long-term technological investments and strategic planning [28][34].

关于优化调整本市个人住房房产税试点有关政策的通知 各区财政局、国家税务总局上海市各区税务局，市财政监督局，国家税务总局上海市税务局各税务分 局： （二）在本市新购且属于家庭第二套及以上住房的，合并计算的家庭全部住房面积（指住房建筑面 积，下同）人均不超过60平方米（即免税住房面积，含60平方米）的，新购的住房暂免征收房产 税；人均超过60平方米的，对属新购住房超出部分的面积，按暂行办法的规定计算征收房产税。 二、持有本市居住证但不满3年的购房人，其上述住房先按暂行办法的规定计算征收房产税，待持有 本市居住证满3年并在本市工作生活的，其符合第一条规定的免税住房和面积在本市居住证持证期间 已征收的房产税，可予退还。 三、 以上政策自2025年1月1日起执行。 购房人已购应税住房符合上述暂免征收规定的，可向应税 住房所在地税务机关申报，并重新办理房产税纳税信息的申报、认定，对所属期在2025年1月1日以 后多征收的税款可予退还。 上海市财政局 国家税务总局上海市税务局 2025年9月16日 为更好满足居民刚性住房需求和多样化改善性住房需求，促进本市房地产市场平稳健康发展，根据 《上海市人民政府关于印发〈上海市开展对 ...

9月19日，有消息称，知名连锁餐饮品牌云海肴联合创始人、董事长赵晗因突发心梗，经医治无效在 9月18日于昆明同仁医院病逝，年仅40岁。 据赵晗家属发布的讣告显示，遗体告别仪式定于9月20日11时在昆明市殡仪馆"慎远厅"举行。 澎湃新闻致电昆明市殡仪馆之后，证实了上述消息属实。 公开资料显示，赵晗毕业于中国人民大学国学院，2009年与堂哥吕志韬、好友朱海琴等共同创立云 海肴，将云南菜带出云南，发展为全国知名的餐饮品牌。他致力于传承云南美食文化，推动云南食材 产业发展，曾获"兴滇人才奖"等荣誉。 来源：澎湃新闻 记者 李晓青 ⭐星标华尔街见闻，好内容不错过 ⭐ 本文不构成个人投资建议，不代表 平台 观点，市场有风险，投资需谨慎，请独立判断和决策。 觉得好看，请点"在看" ...

Core Viewpoint - The market rebounded after digesting the complex signals from the Federal Reserve, interpreting its actions as the beginning of a rate-cutting cycle, which supported risk assets [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index rose by 31.61 points, or 0.48%, closing at 6631.96, surpassing its previous record high of 6615.28 set on September 15 [3] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 124.10 points, or 0.27%, closing at 46142.42, breaking its previous record high from September 11 [4] - The Nasdaq Composite index rose by 209.399 points, or 0.94%, closing at 22470.725, reaching a new closing high [5] - The Nasdaq 100 index increased by 231.207 points, or 0.95%, closing at 24454.894, also achieving a new closing high [6] - The chip index rebounded over 3%, with Nvidia rising by 3.5% and Intel soaring nearly 23%, marking its largest increase since 1987 [7] Group 2: Intel and Nvidia Collaboration - Nvidia announced a $5 billion investment in Intel, leading to a significant surge in Intel's stock price and a strong performance in the chip sector [1][8] - Nvidia will purchase Intel shares at $23.28 each, a discount of about 6.5% from the previous closing price, with Intel's market capitalization around $1160 billion [9] - This partnership aims to integrate Nvidia's graphics processing technology into Intel's next-generation PC chips and provide processor support for Nvidia's data center products [9][12] - The collaboration is seen as a significant shift in the competitive landscape of the computing industry, with Nvidia's CEO highlighting the historical nature of this partnership [12] Group 3: Strategic Importance for Intel - The investment from Nvidia is crucial for Intel, which has struggled in the high-performance chip market and has been unable to independently fund advanced process research and development [11] - Intel has recently received support from the U.S. government and strategic investments from SoftBank, further solidifying its financial position [11] - Under the leadership of new CEO Lip-Bu Tan, Intel is adopting a more open strategy, actively seeking partnerships and opening its factory capacity to external companies [13]

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's decision to cut interest rates, despite the absence of clear recession signals, represents a high-risk policy gamble aimed at demonstrating the Fed's independence and fulfilling its dual mandate [2][9]. Economic Context - Powell faces unprecedented political opposition and economic uncertainty as his term nears its end, making current policy decisions more complex and risky than ever before [2][3]. - The decision to lower rates is largely influenced by significant slowdowns in the labor market, with average job growth for August revised down from 150,000 to 29,000, indicating substantial underlying weakness [4]. Political Pressure - The Fed is navigating extraordinary challenges to its traditional independence while addressing issues like slowing growth and persistent inflation, complicating policy decisions [3][6]. - Powell has managed to maintain consensus within the Fed despite differing views on the economic outlook and significant political pressure [6][8]. Future Outlook - The Fed's interest rate predictions reveal potential for ongoing contentious debates, with some members believing no further rate cuts are necessary this year, while others advocate for additional cuts [8]. - Powell acknowledges the dual risks of labor market weakness and stubborn inflation, indicating that there are no risk-free paths forward [8]. Historical Context - The article outlines three potential outcomes of Powell's policy gamble, referencing historical precedents where early rate cuts either led to successful economic soft landings or contributed to prolonged inflationary pressures [11][12]. - Past instances of rate cuts in 1990, 2001, and 2007 failed to prevent recessions, highlighting the limitations of monetary policy [12].

在中国AI应用迎来爆发式增长的关键节点，腾讯和阿里巴巴这两大科技巨头正以截然不同的路径争夺AI时代的制高点，一个凭借微信生态在2C端AI应用领域独 领风骚，另一个则在企业级AI市场攻城略地。 腾讯在2025年全球数字生态峰会上全面展示其AI战略进展， 摩根士丹利分析师认为腾讯已成为2C端AI应用的最佳实践者 。公司云业务聚焦数字化和全球化两 大战略方向，AI投资在二季度已显现高投资回报率，推动营销收入增长20%，游戏业务增长22%。 摩根士丹利维持腾讯"增持"评级，目标价700港元。 分析师Gary Yu表示，腾讯凭借全套应用产品组合和强大的微信生态系统，在2C端AI应用领域表现突出。 云业务CEO汤道生在峰会上强调，"真正实用的AI应用将推动产业效率提升，而国际化将开拓新的增长可能性。" 高盛则在另一份报告中指出，受益于企业对大模型的加速采用和计算需求的持续强韧，以阿里巴巴为代表的全栈式云厂商正迎来新的增长机遇。 阿里凭借其领 先的模型能力、47%的中国公有云市场份额以及多样化的芯片供应，处于有利地位，并具备国际化扩张的空间。 基于对行业前景的乐观看法，高盛将阿里巴巴的目标价从163美元上调至179美元，维 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese stock market is experiencing a liquidity-driven bull market, with "re-inflation" expectations and AI autonomy development as key catalysts for the recent surge [2][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The bull market began in late January and has been supported by various factors, including the "DeepSeek moment," a private enterprise symposium, and easing trade tensions between China and the U.S. The CSI 300 index has surged 26% since its low in April, with a year-to-date increase of 15% [4]. - The market is witnessing a shift towards re-inflation trading, driven by expectations of improved pricing environments and supply-side rationalization policies. Since July 1, the 10-year government bond yield has risen by 16 basis points, indicating a rotation of funds from the bond market to the stock market [4]. Group 2: Institutional Investors - Contrary to the belief that retail investors are driving the market, institutional investors are playing a crucial role. Domestic public funds have significantly increased their stock exposure, with cash ratios in portfolios at a five-year low. Insurance companies have raised their stock holdings by 26% this year, and private fund management has grown from 5 trillion RMB to 5.9 trillion RMB [8][9]. - Foreign investors are also increasingly participating in the Chinese stock market, particularly in A-shares, with hedge funds recording the highest monthly inflow in recent years in August [8]. Group 3: Valuation and Sustainability - The sustainability of the bull market is supported by improving earnings, but further valuation-driven increases are not a necessary condition. Historical analysis shows that changes in price-to-earnings ratios have been the primary driver of returns during bull markets, contributing approximately 80% of realized gains [10][11]. - The current expected P/E ratios for MSCI China and CSI 300 are 13.5x and 14.7x, respectively, which are still below the historical bull market valuation limits of 15-20x [11]. Group 4: Future Potential - There is significant potential for incremental capital inflow into the Chinese stock market. Currently, household asset allocation is heavily skewed towards real estate (55%) and cash deposits (27%), with stocks (including public funds) only accounting for 11%. As the real estate market adjusts, trillions of RMB are expected to gradually shift towards the stock market [17]. - If the institutional holding ratio in A-shares increases to the average levels of emerging (50%) or developed markets (59%), it could lead to potential inflows of 14 trillion RMB or 30 trillion RMB, respectively [18]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - The company maintains an "overweight" stance on the Chinese stock market and supports a buy-on-dips strategy. Key investment themes include AI, anti-involution, and shareholder returns, with a continued positive outlook on sectors such as telecommunications, media and technology (TMT), consumer services, insurance, and materials [20].