以下文章来源于中美聚焦 ，作者绮蝶 作者：绮蝶 本周末，美国总统特朗普下令对伊朗三处核设施福尔多（Fordo）、纳坦兹（Natanz）和伊斯法罕 （Esfahan）进行了轰炸，并宣称行动"取得辉煌胜利"，伊朗核设施已被"彻底摧毁"。 这场行动标 志着美国首次对伊朗进行直接军事打击，进一步升级了以色列和伊朗6月中旬以来的军事冲突。 与此 同时，特朗普通过社交媒体和全国讲话强调，伊朗必须同意结束和以色列的冲突，实现和平，如果伊 朗不能实现和平，美国会继续攻击。这体现了特朗普通过军事极限施压促使对手让步的理念。 这场针对伊朗的军事行动也再次凸显了特朗普决策的反复无常，之前几天他已明确宣布两周内暂缓对 伊朗实施军事打击。以反战纲领竞选成功的特朗普如今转变态度，无视MAGA人士意见突然决定空 袭伊朗，让国内外盟友感到恐慌。美官员透露第三艘美国航母即将部署至以色列附近。一向反战的特 朗普内阁成员也被边缘化，国外盟友通过外交渠道也很难获得美国确切的信息。 特朗普模糊且前后 矛盾的表态也表明，美国在缺乏明确战略或被情报误导的情况下已经卷入了另一场高风险的海外军事 冲突。 01 轰炸伊朗凸显特朗普的"不确定性" 特朗普此次绕过 ...

Core Viewpoint - The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran has raised market fears, leading to an increase in Brent crude oil prices, which have risen by 18% since June 10, reaching a nearly five-month high of $79.04 per barrel [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Oil Prices - The Strait of Hormuz is a critical passage for oil transport, with 2024 oil flow expected to average 20 million barrels per day, accounting for about 20% of global oil liquid consumption [1]. - The announcement of potential closure has led to a rebound in oil prices, indicating a possible end to the oil and gas super cycle that began in October 2020 [2][4]. - Brent crude oil prices are projected to average $79.82 per barrel in 2024, with a narrow fluctuation expected throughout the year [3]. Group 2: Domestic Implications - Rising oil prices will increase the cost of imported crude for domestic refineries, leading to a further decline in refinery operating rates, which have already dropped below 80% [2]. - The average operating rate in the petrochemical refining industry is around 75%, with independent refineries operating below 60% [2]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Trading Opportunities - The current volatility in oil prices presents trading opportunities for futures market participants, despite being unfavorable for spot market players due to unclear market trends [2][4]. - Analysts suggest that if the Strait is closed, oil prices could potentially reach $100 per barrel; otherwise, prices may stabilize around $75 [4]. Group 4: Geopolitical Context - The geopolitical situation in the region remains tense, with the potential closure of the Strait serving as a negotiation tool rather than a definitive action, historically leading to limited actual closures [4]. - The Chinese government emphasizes the importance of maintaining stability in the Persian Gulf region for global economic development [5].

Core Viewpoint - The stablecoin market has experienced significant growth, increasing from $20 billion in 2020 to over $250 billion currently, with a projected potential supply of $1.6 trillion to $3.7 trillion by 2030, according to Citigroup [1][6]. Group 1: Market Trends and Changes - The rise of stablecoins has been a notable change in the global digital asset market, with the total stablecoin market exceeding $250 billion, marking an 11-fold increase from $20 billion in 2020 [3][6]. - Stablecoins are increasingly being used as intermediaries in cryptocurrency transactions, accounting for over 90% of trading volume [4]. - The tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) is rapidly developing, with traditional financial institutions beginning to engage in this area, indicating a growing interest from general investors [4]. Group 2: Challenges and Unresolved Issues - There are multiple unresolved questions in the stablecoin sector, including whether stablecoins should be based on centralized or decentralized systems, and their classification as payment tools or investment assets [6][7]. - Governance issues surrounding stablecoins, such as credit control of issuing institutions and consumer protection, are critical challenges that need to be addressed [7]. Group 3: Regulatory Perspectives - The development of stablecoins requires a balance between risk management and innovation support, with regulatory frameworks needing to adapt to changing market conditions [10]. - The introduction of the Stablecoin Regulation in Hong Kong, effective from August 1, 2025, aims to provide a testing ground for non-USD stablecoins, such as those pegged to the Hong Kong dollar or Renminbi [9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The future of stablecoins may see a resurgence of dollarization, with the U.S. dollar currently dominating the stablecoin market, holding about 90% market share [9]. - The potential for stablecoins to reshape traditional payment systems and the challenges they pose to financial regulation are significant considerations for future developments in this space [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of investment strategies in the Chinese pharmaceutical industry, highlighting the shift from speculative investments to long-term, operational involvement in companies, particularly through the experiences of Woming Investment and its founder Zhang Yingjie [1][3][5]. Group 1: Company Evolution - Woming Investment was founded in 2015, coinciding with significant reforms in China's pharmaceutical industry, marking it as the "Year of Innovation" in Chinese medicine [2][5]. - The company initially focused on Pre-IPO investments but later recognized the limitations of this approach, leading to a broader investment strategy that includes angel investments, venture capital, growth stage, Pre-IPO, and mergers and acquisitions [6][10]. - A pivotal investment was in Push Pharmaceutical, which faced challenges that prompted Zhang Yingjie to transition from a financial investor to an operational leader, ultimately becoming the chairman [11][12][13]. Group 2: Investment Strategy Shift - The investment philosophy evolved from a focus on quick returns to a commitment to long-term operational involvement, emphasizing the importance of improving company fundamentals rather than merely seeking capital gains [9][13][18]. - The team at Woming Investment now prioritizes operational excellence and sustainable growth over immediate financial returns, reflecting a broader trend in the investment landscape [14][19]. - The company has engaged in significant projects, such as the acquisition of Xinjiang Tianshan Snow Lotus Pharmaceutical, focusing on research and development rather than rushing to market [14][20]. Group 3: Industry Insights - The Chinese biopharmaceutical sector has seen substantial investment, with over 1.23 trillion yuan raised for innovative drugs from 2015 to 2024, and the number of listed pharmaceutical companies has significantly increased [5][20]. - The article notes a shift in the investment environment, with a growing recognition that the rapid growth of the past may not be sustainable, leading to a more cautious approach among investors [19][20]. - Despite challenges, the article concludes that the pharmaceutical industry remains a promising sector, driven by innovation and the potential for long-term returns [20][21].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rise and fall of "parallel exports" of Chinese cars, highlighting the shift from a booming market to a challenging environment due to increased competition and regulatory changes [1][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The parallel export market for Chinese cars saw significant growth, particularly during the period from 2022 to mid-2023, driven by the demand created by the absence of major international car manufacturers in Russia due to the Ukraine conflict [2][5]. - The influx of new players into the market led to increased competition, resulting in profit margins being squeezed from several thousand dollars per vehicle to just a few hundred yuan [5][6]. - By 2023, the export volume of Chinese used cars reached 275,000 units, a 294% increase year-on-year, with projections for 2024 exceeding 400,000 units [6]. Group 2: Regulatory Changes - Starting in the second half of 2023, Russia implemented restrictive measures that severely impacted the parallel export model, including a law requiring the payment of previously avoided taxes on vehicles imported through the Eurasian Economic Union [6][9]. - These regulatory changes forced exporters to shift their focus from the lucrative Russian market to smaller markets like Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, which significantly reduced the potential for profit [6][9]. Group 3: Industry Transformation - Many players in the parallel export market are now seeking to transition to more sustainable business models, with some aiming to become authorized distributors for car manufacturers or shifting to parts supply and repair services [11]. - The article emphasizes the potential for pure used car exports to become a new growth area, as this segment requires specialized knowledge and offers less competition compared to new car exports [12][13]. - The market is expected to evolve from a price-driven model to one focused on service quality and professional expertise, providing opportunities for well-prepared teams to establish a foothold [12].

Core Viewpoint - JD.com is entering the hotel and travel sector, aiming to compete with existing OTA platforms like Ctrip and Meituan by leveraging its extensive user base and supply chain capabilities [4][7][10]. Group 1: JD.com's Strategy in the Hotel and Travel Sector - JD.com has launched the "JD Hotel PLUS Membership Plan," offering hotel merchants up to three years of zero commission [5]. - The "JD Travel" service has been promoted to a primary entry point on the JD app, indicating a strategic push into local lifestyle services [6]. - The company plans to adopt a high-quality, subsidy-driven model similar to its approach in the food delivery sector, aiming to attract new users through competitive pricing [8][9]. Group 2: Financial Implications and Market Position - JD.com's new business operations, including food delivery, have resulted in a significant increase in operating losses, with the loss rate rising from 13.8% to 23.1% in Q1 [9]. - The hotel and travel sector is seen as a high-margin opportunity, with Ctrip's gross margin at 80.32% and Meituan's hotel business profit margin at 38.5% [10][11]. - JD.com aims to reduce costs in the hotel and travel industry to 20% of current levels, enhancing its competitive edge [11]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Ctrip has reported a net revenue of approximately 138 billion yuan in Q1 2023, reflecting a 16% year-on-year growth, positioning it as a strong competitor in the market [13]. - Ctrip's stable gross margin of around 80% is attributed to its strong relationships with high-star hotels, which JD.com will need to navigate [15][16]. - The recent partnership between Meituan and Marriott International highlights the competitive dynamics, with Meituan leveraging its young user base to enhance hotel bookings [18][19]. Group 4: Leadership and Future Directions - JD.com's founder, Liu Qiangdong, has returned to a more active role, emphasizing the importance of innovation and strategic direction for the company [20][24]. - The company is exploring new business models in food delivery that differ from Meituan's, focusing on safety and cost-effectiveness [21]. - JD.com is also looking to expand its international business, particularly in stablecoin projects to reduce cross-border payment costs significantly [21][24].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China announced the promotion of RMB foreign exchange futures trading, indicating the maturity of the domestic market for this financial product, driven by the increasing demand for currency risk management tools due to the internationalization of the RMB and rising cross-border capital flows [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Policy and Market Development - The introduction of RMB foreign exchange futures is expected to fill the gap in the domestic market, enhancing the structure and depth of the foreign exchange market [2][3]. - The current foreign exchange derivatives market in China includes forward contracts, swaps, currency swaps, and options, which have aligned with international standards, but the addition of futures will mark a new phase in market development [2][4]. Group 2: Risk Management and Corporate Needs - There is a significant increase in the demand for currency risk hedging among enterprises, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises, highlighting the urgent need for precise risk management tools [2][3]. - Exchange rate fluctuations pose a core external variable affecting the operational performance of domestic enterprises, especially in cross-border trade, where time lags between contract signing and payment expose firms to exchange rate risks [3][4]. Group 3: Impact on Financial Market Competitiveness - The introduction of standardized, centrally traded derivatives like foreign exchange futures is expected to enhance the international competitiveness of China's foreign exchange market, attracting more international investors and increasing market liquidity [4]. - The development of a comprehensive ecosystem for currency risk management involving foreign trade enterprises, financial institutions, and futures operating institutions will accelerate as the foreign exchange futures market matures [4].

6月18日，证监会主席吴清在2025年陆家嘴论坛上官宣， 更好发挥科创板改革"试验田"作用，加力 推出进一步深化改革的"1+6"政策组合拳。 文/李悦 科创成长层 亮相 、 第五套 上市 标准 重启 ， 资本市场支持科技创新的顶层设计再获关键突破！ 其中，"1"是核心引擎，是指在科创板设置科创成长层，并且重启未盈利企业适用科创板第五套标准 上市；"6"是在科创板创新推出包括对于适用科创板第五套标准的企业，试点引入资深专业机构投资 者制度等6项改革措施。 "设置科创成长层这一举措具有非常重要的意义。"清华大学国家金融研究院院长、清华大学五道口 金融学院副院长田轩表示，成长层突破了过去对于拟融资企业规模、盈利等方面的要求与限制，不仅 能够根据科创企业轻资产、高研发投入、未来收益不确定性大等特点，为科技创新型企业提供更为精 准的融资平台。 在前海开源基金首席经济学家、基金经理杨德龙看来，加力推出进一步深化改革的"1+6"政策措 施，有利于加大资本市场对科技创新企业的支持，从而有助于发展优质新生产力。 01 解密"科创成长层" 值得一提的是， 此次 在科创板设置科创成长层，是继"科技十六条""科创板八条""并购六条" ...

Core Viewpoint - The innovative drug sector has experienced a significant surge in the capital market, with the CSI Innovative Drug Industry Index rising by 21.99% and the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Innovative Drug Industry Index increasing by 41.51% as of June 13 [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current surge in the innovative drug market began with the "924" policy window last year, which established a "policy bottom" for A-shares [2] - The turning point for the innovative drug sector occurred in March this year, driven by three main factors: strong earnings reports from innovative drug and CXO companies, the undervaluation of Chinese innovative drug firms compared to international peers, and the comparative advantage of the pharmaceutical sector in A-shares [3] - The optimization of the industry structure and the reversal of the fundamental situation are key reasons for the return of funds to the pharmaceutical sector [4] Group 2: Industry Outlook - The current valuation of the innovative drug sector is around the 40th percentile historically, indicating it is relatively inexpensive [6] - The innovative drug sector has transitioned from a speculative phase to a stage focused on research and development, with a significant increase in the share of Chinese innovative drugs in global transactions [6] - The CXO sector is expected to continue its growth due to strong ties with innovative drug companies and increasing demand for CXO services [8] Group 3: Investment Strategies - The complexity of accurately valuing innovative drug companies makes it challenging for investors, as it requires estimating future revenues from existing drugs and assessing the value of drugs in various clinical stages [9] - Investors interested in the innovative drug sector are encouraged to consider ETFs or index funds as a practical way to navigate the high research barriers [10] - Personal investors should focus on risk matching, valuation changes, and long-term planning to effectively manage their investment in the innovative drug sector [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the Israel-Iran conflict, on international oil and gold prices, highlighting the potential for price fluctuations due to supply concerns and market sentiment [1][2]. Oil Market Analysis - Since the onset of the Israel-Iran conflict on June 13, international oil prices have risen, with Brent crude oil prices increasing by over 9% [2]. - Concerns regarding oil supply stem from Iran's current production of approximately 3.4 million barrels per day and an export volume of about 1.5 million barrels per day, predominantly to China [2]. - The potential for conflict escalation raises fears of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20 million barrels of oil are transported daily, accounting for 75% of oil transport in the region [2]. - Despite these concerns, the global oil supply situation remains manageable, with OPEC in a production increase cycle and an estimated 4-5 million barrels per day of idle capacity available [2][3]. - Long-term projections suggest that international oil prices may stabilize around $65 per barrel, influenced by inflationary pressures in the U.S. and geopolitical dynamics [3][4]. Gold Market Analysis - International gold prices have surged due to the heightened tensions in the Middle East, currently hovering around $3,400 per ounce [5]. - Over the past month, gold prices have rebounded from below $3,200 per ounce, with a potential challenge to the previous high of $3,500 per ounce [5]. - The increase in gold prices is attributed to rising risk aversion amid geopolitical instability and a declining U.S. dollar index, which enhances the valuation of dollar-denominated gold [5]. - Long-term trends indicate that gold prices are influenced by the global monetary system, central bank policies, and inflation expectations, with potential for prices to reach $3,700-$3,800 per ounce if they surpass the $3,500 mark [6].