在杨德龙看来， 短期市场的冲击难以避免，而中长期的表现更取决于这些科技股能否兑现业绩、能 否实现投资者的预期。 短期市场受到外部因素影响出现调整，通过减仓避险能够防止市场出现较大 幅度回落，而市场大的趋势并没有改变。 这轮慢牛长牛行情背后有深刻的逻辑，在居民储蓄大转移 的背景之下，这轮牛市仍然有望延续较长时间。即使从去年924行情启动算起，这轮行情也可能只是 在上半场。 此前美国参议院连续第7次未能通过旨在结束停摆的预算提案。截至目前，两党尚未展现出谈判取得 实际性进展的迹象。美国政府停摆时隔7年再次发生，对于美国就业、经济增长都形成了影响。 杨德 龙认为， 这使得市场预期美联储在10月份降息的概率提高到98%。对于美联储来说，当前提振就业 相比控制通胀是更重要的任务，预计12月份美联储还会继续降息。在利空消息的影响之下，黄金价 格在避险资金的推动下继续上涨，而比特币等风险资产出现暴跌，导致无数人爆仓。 " 美股的大跌对于A股和港股下周的走势也会形成负面影响，特别是下周一市场开盘可能会形成比较 大的冲击。 " 杨德龙表示。 他认为， 当前A股和港股市场已经形成了牛市的走势。在国庆节之后首个交易日，大盘一度突破 ...

不管有无准备，我们都必须面对大变局。何谓大变局，是不是可以说， 大变局就是全球竞争格局发 生重大变化。 其中，比较根本的是美国的变化，因为美国的变化对全球有重要影响，对中国的发展 有特别重要的影响。中国走上和平发展、改革开放之路，离不开在冷战终结前后中美关系从对抗转趋 缓和，中国抓住了当时全球变局带来的历史机遇。 1978年10月，中美两国还没有建交，时任北京大学校长周培源受命带队中国科协代表团与美国国家 科学基金会达成关于派遣留学生的11项口头谅解。1978年年底，首批中国留美学生抵达美国。 1979年1月，这份口头谅解协议在邓小平访美时正式签署。1979年7月，中美在北京达成双方互享 贸易最惠国待遇协议，两国市场互相开放。虽然还需要年度审议，但不论经过多少风风雨雨，中美贸 易互惠协议一直延续，直到2000年，美国国会通过对中国的永久正常贸易关系议案，此后中国也正 式加入世贸组织。1992年10月，华晨中国（CBA）在纽交所挂牌，发行500万普通股，每股招股价 16美元，被超额认购85倍，募资7000多万美元，上市首日该股股价劲升25%。我翻看过那份招股 书，封面上用小字披露风险，包括公司所在国度曾发生过" ...

张明系中国社会科学院金融研究所副所长、国家金融与发展实验室副主任、中国首席经济学家论坛理 事 近日，中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所副所长张明在 中国宏观经济论坛 上重点围绕稳经济、 稳楼市、应对债务问题等分享了他的看法。 张明首先表示，当前需要高度重视债务问题。 费雪提出的"债务-通货紧缩"理论指出，债务负担过 高，会损害微观主体的资产负债表，家庭会减少消费、企业会减少投资，进而加剧物价下行；物价下 行又会带动实际利率提升，导致债务负担进一步放大，由此形成恶性循环。因此，打破低物价循环很 重要的在于降低债务，修复微观主体的资产负债表。 张明表示，对于中国而言，要走出当前低物价循环， 第一，要推动债务置换和债务重组。 近几年， 在中央政府的批准下，地方省级政府通过发行债券来置换低层级政府的债务，这是债务置换；另外， 还可以考虑对本金进行削减，即债务重组。 第二，推动房地产市场止跌回稳，是应对当前债务问题 的重要举措。第三，需要补充资本金，帮助微观主体修复资产负债表。 建设，包括反对上市公司造假、反对关联交易、推动长期投资者入市、提高上市公司质量、鼓励上市 公司分红等。同时还要推动中国宏观经济基本面的回升向好 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the persistent low inflation and deflationary pressures in China's economy, highlighting the need for targeted macroeconomic policies to address the underlying issues of insufficient effective demand and overcapacity [4][5][6]. Demand Analysis - Insufficient effective demand is primarily characterized by a lack of consumption demand with purchasing power, which is influenced by stagnant or declining income levels [5]. - The main source of household income is wage income, which has been negatively impacted by high youth unemployment rates and declining job quality [5]. - The decline in real estate prices has worsened household balance sheets, leading to increased savings rates and suppressed consumption [5][6]. Investment Demand - Investment demand is weak, reflected in reduced corporate investments and declining local government investment capabilities [6]. - Corporate revenue has been declining due to market sluggishness and increased competition, leading to lower investment demand [6]. - Local governments face fiscal constraints due to reduced land sales and related tax revenues, further limiting their investment capacity [6]. Supply Analysis - The current overcapacity issue is exacerbated by the "involution" phenomenon, which reflects a lack of effective market clearing mechanisms [6][7]. - The failure of the price clearing mechanism has resulted in persistent overcapacity, as firms are not incentivized to exit the market despite losses [7][9]. Policy Recommendations - To stabilize prices, it is essential to stabilize income, which hinges on employment and corporate stability [7]. - The focus of fiscal policy should shift from "heavy investment" to "heavy consumption," emphasizing direct support for consumer spending [7]. - Stabilizing the real estate market is crucial, as its decline negatively impacts the balance sheets of households, businesses, and local governments [8]. - Addressing the "involution" issue requires reconstructing market clearing mechanisms to ensure that supply and demand can adjust effectively [9][10]. Structural Reforms - Structural reforms are necessary to enhance the market exit mechanisms for inefficient firms, particularly state-owned enterprises [10]. - The alignment of fiscal powers and responsibilities at the local government level is critical to prevent the maintenance of inefficient capacities [10]. - Introducing competition policies across various sectors will ensure equal access and exit for all market participants [10].

Core Viewpoints - The current international situation is characterized by "four certainties" and "three uncertainties," impacting global capital flows and presenting structural challenges to the Chinese economy [2] - Domestic issues such as weak demand, structural overcapacity, deflationary pressures, and unstable expectations remain significant [3][4][5] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Infrastructure investment growth has declined, with fixed asset investment from January to August showing a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 0.5%, and infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) down 2.0% [3] - The real estate market continues to face challenges, with national commercial housing sales area in August down 11% year-on-year, and real estate investment from January to August down 12.9% [4] - Credit growth is notably weak, with July seeing a reduction of 500 billion yuan in credit, marking the first decline since July 2005, and the total new credit for January to August at 1.34 trillion yuan, the lowest in five years [5] Group 2: Policy Recommendations - It is recommended to advance next year's government investment quotas to stimulate demand, with a proposed early release of 1.5-2 trillion yuan in local government bonds [6] - Monetary policy should continue to signal positivity, with suggestions for a 0.5% reserve requirement ratio cut and a 0.2% interest rate reduction [6] - The establishment of a "dynamic adjustment" mechanism for structural tools is advised to enhance efficiency and prevent fund idling [7] Group 3: Capital Market Support - Lowering the operational thresholds for capital market support tools is suggested, including reducing the interest rate for stock repurchase loans from 1.75% to 1.5% [8] - The recommendation includes expanding the range of institutions eligible for liquidity support and increasing the scale of the central financial company's assets to stabilize the capital market [8] Group 4: Real Estate and Housing Policies - A reduction in mortgage rates and optimization of housing tax policies are recommended, particularly in major cities, to stimulate housing demand [9][10] - The "white list" credit arrangement is currently at approximately 8.5 trillion yuan, which is about 60% of the existing development loan balance, indicating a need for increased credit support for real estate companies [10] Group 5: Consumer and Trade Support - An additional 1 billion yuan for consumer goods replacement subsidies is proposed, along with measures to enhance service consumption and lower re-loan rates [11][12] - Strengthening financial and fiscal support for foreign trade, including the establishment of emergency funds for affected enterprises, is recommended [13][14]

以下文章来源于粤开志恒宏观 ，作者罗志恒 01 我国居民工作时间偏长、闲暇时间较短，存在假期"休不够""休不好""休不到"三大问题 当前，我国劳动者每年依法可享受每周2天的休息日共104天、13天公共假期、5到15天的带薪年假 （需工作满一年），休息休假时长共122-132天，约占全年时间的1/3。由于产假、育儿假、学生 寒暑假以及妇女节、儿童节等只针对部分群体而非所有劳动者，因此本文不做详细讨论。 我国劳动者现在享受的假期，是经历了76年的制度改革才形成的，背后有诸多试错和探索，也凝结 了不少集体智慧，有些制度安排甚至一度走在发达国家之前。例如，我国1995年就开始正式推行双 休制，而韩国到2004年才开始。但是，我国休息休假制度发展至今也暴露出一些问题，造成居民工 作时间较长、闲暇时间较短的现状，以至于开始制约我国消费潜力的释放。 工作时间方面，根据国家统计局数据，2023年全国企业就业人员周平均工作时间约49小时，粗略估 计年工作时长约2500小时。而OECD统计数据显示，38个成员国就业人员年工作时长均值为1717 小时，传统制造强国德国、日本分别为1301小时和1637小时，发展中国家墨西哥为232 ...

Core Viewpoint - Leshan Commercial Bank has demonstrated steady growth and optimization of key indicators in its operations, maintaining its position as a leading city commercial bank in Sichuan, with total assets reaching 215.5 billion as of June 2025, following its entry into the "200 billion club" in 2024 [1] Compliance Management - The bank has enhanced its internal control and compliance systems, leading to improved risk management and operational efficiency. It ranked 505th in the "2025 World’s Top 1000 Banks" by The Banker, rising 68 places from 2024, and has maintained an AA+ credit rating for three consecutive years [2] Risk Management - Leshan Commercial Bank has focused on maintaining asset quality while expanding its loan portfolio, implementing a comprehensive risk management mechanism that includes risk identification, assessment, response, and monitoring [3] Legal Rights Protection - The bank actively combats debt evasion to protect the interests of depositors and shareholders, collaborating with legal authorities to ensure the enforcement of financial obligations and maintain a healthy financial ecosystem [4] Strict Governance - The bank has strengthened its governance and compliance oversight, establishing a robust supervisory system that integrates various compliance functions to support high-quality development [5] Financial Innovation - In response to market trends, the bank is transitioning towards a light capital model, focusing on enhancing middle business operations and capital efficiency, while leveraging digital transformation to improve operational processes [6] Community Financial Support - As a state-controlled bank, Leshan Commercial Bank has prioritized financial services that support local economic development, optimizing risk management while expanding its lending capabilities across multiple cities in Sichuan [7] Tourism and Cultural Financing - The bank integrates financial services with tourism development, providing tailored financial solutions to support the local economy and enhance the region's appeal as a global tourist destination [8]

今年国庆中秋叠加八天"超级黄金周"，从历年数据看，人员出行规模持续走高并呈现 出行 方式分 化，旅游市场在稳定增长中进一步释放长线需求，餐饮消费在 中秋 团圆与文旅带动下延续升级态 势，电影档期亦在多类型影片加持下蓄势待发 ...... 全国消费市场有望迎来新一轮高峰。 和讯财经研 究院基于历史数据和领先数据指标，带您前瞻今年黄金周出行、消费、楼市、股市等市场热点。 01 出行：全国人员流动将呈现量增+出行方式分化新特征 | | 客运量，万人次 | 日均，万人次 | 比 2023 年同期日均增长 | 比 2019 年同期日均增长 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁路 | 13125.1 | 1875 | 6.3% | 27.5% | | 水路 | 980.1 | 140 | 10.0% | -27.5% | | 民航 | 1609.6 | 229.9 | 11.1% | 22% | | 公路 | 184616 | 26373.7 | 3.7% | 23.3% | | 自驾 | 158541 | 22648.7 | 3.8% | 55.8% | | 营业客运 | 2607 ...

Core Insights - Hong Kong is actively embracing the emerging financial landscape of stablecoins, with the first batch of stablecoin issuer license applications closing on September 30, 2025, and expected to be issued by early 2026, positioning Hong Kong to capture a share of the over $250 billion stablecoin market [3][7] - The opening of the stablecoin market in Hong Kong aims to attract global issuing institutions, enhance international financial competitiveness, and explore new pathways for the internationalization of the Renminbi [3][4] - The U.S. stablecoin market is experiencing significant developments, with Tether planning to sell a 3% stake for approximately $20 billion, potentially raising its valuation to $500 billion, and the introduction of a U.S. regulated dollar stablecoin [3][4] Summary by Sections Hong Kong Stablecoin Market - The first batch of stablecoin issuer licenses is expected to be issued in early 2026, with 77 institutions expressing interest or entering sandbox testing as of the end of August 2025 [7] - The implementation of the stablecoin regulation in Hong Kong provides a clear legal framework and regulatory guidance, enhancing investor protection and attracting global stablecoin issuers [7][8] U.S. Stablecoin Developments - The global stablecoin annual transaction volume surpassed $25 trillion by August 2025, exceeding the total transactions of Visa and Mastercard combined [4] - The U.S. government is actively promoting stablecoin development, partly due to increasing debt pressures, with the "Genius Act" signed into law to establish a federal "strategic Bitcoin reserve" and "national digital asset reserve" [5][4] Financial Implications and Risks - Stablecoins are viewed as a tool to alleviate U.S. debt pressure, with predictions that if the dollar stablecoin market reaches $2 trillion, it could become a significant buyer of U.S. Treasury bonds [5] - Concerns exist regarding the potential for stablecoins to disrupt the existing U.S. dollar-dominated international payment system and the challenges they pose to the internationalization of the Renminbi [5][11] Regulatory and Market Reactions - The market has seen significant price increases in stocks related to stablecoins, driven by clearer regulatory policies and the potential for blockchain technology to enhance cross-border payment efficiency [8] - Caution is advised regarding the speculative nature of stablecoins, as many investors may lack the necessary knowledge to assess the true value and risks associated with these assets [8][12] Recommendations for Stablecoin Development - The book "Stablecoins: Reshaping the Global Financial Order" suggests a gradual approach to developing offshore Renminbi stablecoins, starting with Hong Kong and expanding to free trade zones [6][11] - The need for a cautious approach to stablecoin implementation is emphasized, with a focus on pilot programs and risk management to prevent financial instability and fraud [6][10]

Core Viewpoint - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of investing in productive service industries, particularly in hard technology, as a means to foster high-tech enterprises and drive economic growth [2][3][4]. Summary by Sections Productive Service Industry - The productive service industry provides intermediate services to other sectors, indirectly promoting economic growth by enhancing production efficiency and resource allocation [2][3]. - This industry includes logistics, ICT services, financial services, R&D, human resources, and legal services, among others [2]. Economic Impact - The productive service industry is a key driver of innovation and profit in manufacturing, contributing significantly to GDP growth [3][4]. - In the U.S., the share of productive service industries in GDP increased from 10% in 1950 to 48% in 2023, while in China, it rose from 10% in 1980 to approximately 30% in 2024 [3][4]. Growth Rates - The average annual growth rate of the productive service industry from 2021 to 2023 was 12.1%, significantly outpacing the overall GDP growth rate of around 5% during the same period [4]. - This sector has been identified as crucial for local GDP growth, with a focus on high-tech industry development [4]. Unicorn Companies - Many unicorn companies are formed within the productive service industry, which is a major growth driver in the U.S. stock market, accounting for 30% of its total market value [5][6]. - Major tech companies like Apple and Microsoft are seen as chain-head enterprises in the productive service industry, leveraging their services to generate substantial profits [5][6]. Investment Recommendations - Investment funds should focus on five types of productive service enterprises: small and specialized firms, leading companies in the sector, hybrid firms like Haier, industrial internet platforms, and chain-head enterprises [8][9][10]. - Early, small, and long-term investments in these companies are recommended to foster the emergence of new trillion-dollar market cap companies in China [10].