Core Viewpoint - The A-share non-ferrous metal market has shown a comprehensive strengthening trend since 2026, with the non-ferrous metal index rising by 24.31%, significantly outperforming the broader market. Precious metals (silver, gold) and minor metals (tungsten, tin) have performed particularly well, with price increases notably higher than industrial metals (lead, aluminum) [2][6]. Market Overview - The report titled "Comprehensive Analysis of the Non-Ferrous Metal Industry" systematically reviews the current non-ferrous metal market from multiple dimensions, including macro strategic environment, industry chain dynamics, competitive landscape, and industry trends, providing a reference for market decision-makers [2]. Price and Production Changes - Certain metals have entered an upward price channel, indicating a structural increase rather than a comprehensive recovery. The industry is transitioning from a low point to recovery, with a clear differentiation between strong and weak products [6][10]. - Global major metal varieties face significant supply constraints due to declining resource grades, insufficient capital expenditure, and geopolitical disturbances. Export restrictions from resource-rich countries are tightening, impacting the industry's international trade dynamics [10]. Demand Resilience - Emerging sectors such as new energy vehicles, energy storage, and AI computing centers are becoming core drivers of demand. For instance, China's new energy vehicle sales are projected to reach 16.49 million units in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 28.17%, boosting demand for copper, aluminum, and rare earths [11][22]. Market Price Support - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for China's non-ferrous metal manufacturing is expected to rise to 117.200 in 2025, up from 113.200 in 2024, indicating robust industry demand [12]. Policy Environment - The policy environment is shifting from "cyclical adjustment" to "strategic resource management," accelerating industry upgrades. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has outlined plans for the non-ferrous metal industry to achieve an average annual growth of around 5% in value added from 2025 to 2026 [13][16]. Industry Integration and Technological Support - Policies encourage mergers and acquisitions among large smelting enterprises and support the technological research and industrial application of high-end new materials like magnesium alloys and tungsten [14]. Resource Recycling - The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is pushing for greener production of high-energy-consuming metals. By the end of 2025, 30% of the electrolytic aluminum industry's capacity is expected to meet benchmark energy efficiency levels [15]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape in the industrial metals sector is stable, with leading companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum Company maintaining strong positions through global resource layouts and price elasticity [43][44]. - In the energy metals sector, companies like Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium are leading with a dual drive of resources and technology, while Huayou Cobalt leads in the nickel sector with a collaborative model [47][48]. Long-term Trends - The non-ferrous metal industry is expected to maintain a structurally tight balance in supply and demand, with resource-constrained metals remaining tight in the long term. However, the supply-demand gap will exhibit differentiation across varieties and phases, indicating significant structural opportunities rather than systemic trends [54][55].

文 / 刘思嘉 1 月 26 日，现货 黄金 和期货黄金价格携手冲破 5000 美元 / 盎司关口，同步刷新历史最高纪录。伦敦金现价格 更是 于盘中突破 5 1 00 美元 / 盎司关口 。 自 2026 年初以来，国际金价已连续突破 4500 美元至 5000 美元间的多个重要整数关口，呈现出强劲且 具有 持续性的上涨态势。 | 伦敦金现 | | | SPTAUUSDOZ | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 5105.730 +117.560 +2.36% | | | | | | IDC USD 14:49:13 | | | | / . . + | | 家 | 5106.150 | | | | | 三 | 5105.730 | | | | | 总量 | 0 | 现手 | | 0 | | 得意N | | 开盘 | | 4988.170 | | 最高 | 5110.260 | 最低 | 4988.170 | | | 均价 | | 振幅 | | 2.45% | | 外盘 | 0 | 内盤 | | O | | 昨结 | 4988.170 | 脂收 | 4988.170 | | ...

Macro and Financial - The Chinese economy is projected to grow by 5% in 2025, reaching a GDP of 140.19 trillion yuan, with a 4.5% growth in Q4 [6] - A comprehensive policy package to promote domestic demand has been launched, focusing on expanding private investment and boosting consumer spending, including a 500 billion yuan special guarantee plan for private investment [7][8] - The People's Bank of China indicates there is still room for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in 2026 [9] - The first Loan Prime Rate (LPR) of 2026 remains unchanged at 3.0% for one year and 3.5% for five years, with potential for future reductions [10] - Major banks have announced the implementation of new personal consumption loan subsidy policies, extending the policy period to December 31, 2026 [11] - New measures to support urban renewal have been introduced, focusing on enhancing planning adaptability and optimizing transitional support policies [12] Capital Market - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has released guidelines for public fund performance benchmarks, effective March 1, 2026, aimed at shifting the industry focus from scale to investor returns [16][17] - The CSRC has issued its first penalty of 2026, imposing a fine of 5.11 billion yuan on an individual for manipulating stock prices [18] - Shanghai has introduced 18 measures to enhance the trading capacity of non-ferrous metal commodities, aiming to improve global resource allocation and pricing influence [19] - The global metal market has seen significant price increases, with gold and silver reaching their highest weekly gains since 2020, and silver prices surpassing 100 dollars per ounce [20][21] - A significant amount of 50 trillion yuan in term deposits is set to mature in 2026, with a high retention rate expected [22] Business and Industry - Nvidia's founder Jensen Huang has made a visit to China, marking his first trip in 2026 [27] - The first A-share IPO of 2026 has been accepted, with Suir Technology aiming to raise 6 billion yuan for AI chip development [28] - The commercial aerospace leader, China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, has completed its IPO counseling [29] - Beijing has issued measures to encourage mergers and acquisitions among satellite data companies to enhance the industry chain [31]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market this week (January 19 to January 23, 2026) showed a clear trend of "small and mid-cap stocks leading, while large-cap blue chips faced pressure," driven by technology and resource sectors [2][5]. Market Performance - The small-cap indices, such as the CSI 2000 and CSI 500, recorded significant gains of 4.04% and 4.34% respectively, while the STAR 50 index rose by 2.62%. In contrast, large-cap indices like the SSE 50 and CSI 300 fell by 1.54% and 0.62% respectively, indicating a notable divergence in index performance [2][6]. - Year-to-date, the STAR 50 and CSI 500 indices have both increased by over 15%, highlighting the strong performance of growth sectors since the beginning of the year [9][10]. Sector Analysis - The resource and energy sectors emerged as the standout performers this week, with the materials sector leading with a weekly gain of 6.36%. Precious metals and mining stocks surged by 19.00%, reflecting strong capital inflows driven by inflation expectations [2][14]. - Conversely, the financial, consumer staples, and healthcare sectors underperformed, with the financial sector declining by 2.05%, primarily due to weakness in banks and insurance stocks [2][14]. Trading Volume and Market Sentiment - The average daily trading volume for the week was approximately 2.80 trillion yuan, with a peak of over 3.1 trillion yuan on January 23, indicating robust liquidity and active trading driven by policy expectations and thematic rotations [3][19]. - The number of stocks hitting the daily limit up increased to 122 on Friday, marking a weekly high, and the margin trading showed a positive trend with net purchases exceeding 15 billion yuan over two days [3][38]. Capital Flow - Despite a net outflow of approximately 12.445 billion yuan for the week, there was a notable recovery in capital flow towards the end of the week, with net inflows exceeding 3 billion yuan on Friday [27][28]. - Key sectors attracting significant capital inflows included finance, photovoltaic equipment, semiconductors, and electrical equipment, while sectors like industrials and consumer discretionary saw outflows [31][32]. Upcoming Events - Investors should pay attention to the upcoming earnings forecasts, with 117 companies expected to announce their 2025 performance, particularly in the aerospace, defense, and electrical equipment sectors [3][42]. - Next week will also see the subscription of three new stocks and the unlocking of over 631 million shares, which could impact market dynamics [3][42].

Core Viewpoint - Tesla CEO Elon Musk discussed the plan to launch solar AI satellites in space, highlighting that solar panels in space are five times more efficient than those on Earth due to continuous sunlight and minimal atmospheric interference [2] Industry Growth - The global commercial space industry is experiencing explosive growth, with space energy technology becoming a core driver for the aerospace industry's upgrade [3] - On January 23, the A-share photovoltaic industry chain surged, with the Wind photovoltaic index rising by 7.87%. Several stocks hit the daily limit, including Laplace, Aotwei, and JinkoSolar [3] Space Photovoltaics - The space photovoltaic sector led the market, with multiple stocks like Maiwei and Junda hitting the daily limit. The rise was primarily driven by the commercial space sector [4] - Many domestic photovoltaic companies have deeply engaged in the space photovoltaic field, covering the entire supply chain from battery technology to system integration, with some achieving product delivery and commercial validation in orbit [4] Technological Advancements - Companies like Dongfang Risen and Shanghai Port have achieved actual delivery of space products, focusing on the development and industrialization of "perovskite + P-type HJT battery stacking technology" [5] - Dongfang Risen's P-type ultra-thin HJT battery has a stable thickness of 50-70μm, featuring lightweight, high power-to-weight ratio, flexibility, and strong radiation resistance [5] Strategic Collaborations - Shanghai Port successfully verified its perovskite battery in orbit with satellites, marking it as one of the first cases globally [6] - Junda plans to raise approximately HKD 411 million, with 45% allocated for space photovoltaic battery R&D and production, focusing on perovskite/silicon stacked batteries [6] Market Outlook - The P-type ultra-thin HJT is expected to become the mainstream transition solution for low Earth orbit satellites in the next three years, while perovskite/silicon stacked batteries are projected to achieve over 30% efficiency by 2028-2030 [7] - Long-term, perovskite stacked batteries may become the only viable solution for GW-level space data centers and solar power stations, with potential demand exceeding 800 GW [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the growing importance of "fixed income +" funds in the current volatile A-share market, highlighting their ability to provide a stable foundation through bond investments while seeking additional returns through equity or diversified strategies [4][5]. Group 1: Market Context - The A-share market has experienced significant fluctuations from 2021 to 2024, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping from 3600 points to 2600 points, leading to a decrease in investors' risk appetite [5]. - The demand for stability in asset allocation has become a central theme, as traditional low-risk products fail to meet inflation rates, creating a gap that "fixed income +" funds can fill [5]. Group 2: Performance of Fixed Income + Funds - The BoShi HengLe Bond Fund, established on April 8, 2022, has shown a cumulative return of 20.62% by September 30, 2025, outperforming its benchmark of 17.27%, demonstrating the adaptability of the "fixed income +" strategy [6]. - The fund's assets increased from 1.6 million shares to 89.6 million shares, and the number of holders grew from 306 to 104,966, indicating strong investor confidence in its stable performance [7]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The "fixed income +" strategy is based on a dual approach of "fixed income foundation + flexible enhancement," focusing on long-term returns rather than short-term market trends [9][10]. - The strategy emphasizes a high allocation to bonds for interest income while selectively capturing market opportunities through equity investments and other strategies [9]. Group 4: Platform Strength - BoShi Fund manages approximately 1.7 trillion yuan in assets across 400 public funds, showcasing its market recognition and resource advantages [12]. - The research team covers various fields, including macro analysis and credit ratings, supported by a robust system that aids in investment decision-making [12]. Group 5: Product Matrix - BoShi has developed a comprehensive product matrix that caters to different risk appetites, ranging from low-risk bond-focused products to higher-risk equity-inclusive offerings [13]. - The performance of BoShi's funds has consistently ranked in the top 10% of their categories, reflecting the effectiveness of the "fixed income +" strategy [14]. Group 6: Long-term Value - As the market approaches year-end, the adaptability and long-term value of "fixed income +" funds become increasingly evident, particularly in managing volatility and ensuring stable returns [16]. - Investors are encouraged to focus on risk-return matching rather than short-term market trends to enhance long-term value [17].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" in shaping China's economic development, focusing on high-quality growth and the well-being of the population [4][7] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" highlights two main pushes: achieving effective qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth, and promoting comprehensive human development and common prosperity for all [4][7] - The article outlines four key aspects of human-centered development in the "15th Five-Year Plan," including investing in human capital, aligning industry development with evolving consumer needs, urbanization as a means of optimizing resource allocation, and enhancing living standards to achieve common prosperity [5][6][7] Group 2 - The article discusses the integration of stock and incremental policies, emphasizing the need for a more proactive macroeconomic policy in 2026, which includes evaluating the consistency of various economic and non-economic policies [8][11] - It highlights the significant potential of existing fiscal deposits, which have fluctuated between -200 billion and +600 billion annually over the past two decades, with a notable increase in 2025, indicating underutilization of fiscal resources [9] - The article also points out the substantial policy space within state-owned assets, with total assets exceeding 400 trillion and liabilities around 260 trillion, suggesting that liquidity issues need to be addressed to activate these assets effectively [10] Group 3 - The article provides an analysis of the expected trend of the RMB exchange rate in 2026, with a general consensus on appreciation, but notes that this must be accompanied by policies to expand domestic demand [13][15] - It discusses the impact of geopolitical factors, particularly Sino-U.S. relations, on the undervaluation of the RMB, indicating that improving these relations could lead to a correction in the exchange rate [14][15] - The article concludes that the current exchange rate is primarily determined by market supply and demand, with geopolitical influences playing a significant role, and anticipates a favorable environment for RMB appreciation in 2026 [15]

Group 1 - The oil and petrochemical sector showed strong performance driven by multiple factors including rising refined oil prices, geopolitical risks boosting crude oil expectations, continuous capital inflow, and strong performance from leading stocks [2] - Leading stocks surged, with companies like Huibo Petroleum (002554.SZ) and Intercontinental Oil & Gas (600759.SH) hitting the daily limit, while others like Tongyuan Petroleum (300164.SZ) and Zhongman Petroleum (603619.SH) saw increases exceeding 5% [2] - The overall market sentiment was positive, with institutional capital showing increased willingness to allocate funds to the sector, leading to a net inflow of capital [3] Group 2 - The petrochemical ETF (159731) rose by 10%, with a total net inflow of 344 million yuan over the past 10 days, reaching a record high of 625 million yuan [3] - Major funds concentrated on refining chemicals and oil and gas extraction, with the sector rising 0.91% and a trading volume of 16.73 billion yuan [3] - Specific stock movements included Guangju Energy (000096.SZ) with the highest net inflow of 14.69 million yuan, while Shenke Co. (002278.SZ) experienced a significant net outflow of 51.44 million yuan [3] Group 3 - Analysts predict that the domestic gasoline price will rise to 7,380 yuan/ton by the end of January, reflecting a 0.82% increase, while diesel prices are expected to decrease to 6,080 yuan/ton, a 1.59% drop [4] - The recent adjustment in refined oil pricing mechanism led to an increase of 85 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel, which may enhance profit expectations for downstream refining companies [4] - Geopolitical disturbances have led to a recent increase in international crude oil prices, with WTI closing at $60.34/barrel and Brent at $64.92/barrel, reflecting short-term support from geopolitical and inventory data [5] Group 4 - The 2026 energy economic forecast suggests that fundamental changes in the international crude oil market will continue, with increased downward pressure on oil prices due to a loose supply-demand balance [6] - Projected average prices for Brent and WTI crude oil are expected to be between $53-$63/barrel and $49-$59/barrel, respectively [6]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced incremental monetary policy measures to support high-quality development of the real economy, focusing on structural "rate cuts" and the expansion of targeted tools to lower financing costs in key areas such as technology innovation, green low-carbon initiatives, and the private economy [2][3]. Group 1: Structural Monetary Policy Tools - Structural monetary policy tools are designed to guide financial institutions' credit allocation, providing targeted support to specific sectors and industries, thereby reducing financing costs for enterprises [3][6]. - The recent rate cuts of 25 basis points for structural monetary policy tools aim to enhance incentives for financial institutions to support key areas and weak links, rather than simply lowering market interest rates [3][4]. - As of the first quarter of 2025, the balance of structural monetary policy tools was approximately 5.9 trillion yuan, which is relatively small compared to the total liabilities of commercial banks, indicating limited impact on overall funding costs [4][5]. Group 2: Support for Key Areas - The essence of China's structural monetary policy tools is to support weak links and key areas of the economy, such as small and micro enterprises, and to mitigate risks in the real estate sector [6][7]. - The PBOC has increased the quota for technology innovation and technical transformation loans to 1.2 trillion yuan, emphasizing support for high R&D investment private small and medium enterprises starting in 2026 [7][8]. Group 3: Policy Coordination and Effectiveness - The coordination between fiscal and monetary policies has strengthened, with structural monetary policy tools playing a crucial role in enhancing the effectiveness of fiscal measures [8][9]. - The introduction of new policy financial tools aims to stimulate consumption and emerging industries without increasing the deficit, while structural monetary policy rate cuts can incentivize commercial banks to provide matching loans [9][10]. - Future monetary policy may still have room for adjustments, including rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, depending on the timing and effectiveness of fiscal policy implementation [10].

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, China's economy demonstrated strong resilience despite external challenges, achieving a GDP of 140 trillion yuan with a growth rate of 5.0%, maintaining the target set at the beginning of the year [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Performance - The GDP growth rate for 2025 was 5.0%, consistent with the previous year, with quarterly growth rates of 5.4%, 5.2%, 4.8%, and 4.5% respectively, indicating a "high at the beginning and stable later" trend [3][6]. - Industrial production saw a 5.9% increase in added value, with high-tech and equipment manufacturing leading the growth, reflecting improved corporate confidence [6][9]. - The retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.7%, supported by policy initiatives and structural upgrades, with notable growth in service consumption and new consumption models [9][10]. Group 2: Export Dynamics - Exports exceeded expectations, with a 5.5% year-on-year increase, and December exports grew by 6.6%, indicating limited impact from U.S. tariffs [10][11]. - The export scale remained high, with monthly exports consistently above $300 billion, and a record high of $357.78 billion in December [10][11]. - The share of exports to the U.S. decreased from approximately 20.7% during Trump's first term to 9.55%, while exports to non-U.S. markets expanded significantly [10][11]. Group 3: Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment declined by 3.8% in 2025, primarily due to a 17.2% drop in real estate development investment and a 2.2% decrease in infrastructure investment [13][15]. - The eastern region experienced the most significant investment decline at 8.4%, while private investment saw a notable decrease of 6.4% [13][15]. - The overall contribution of final consumption, capital formation, and net exports to economic growth was 52.0%, 15.3%, and 32.7% respectively [13][15]. Group 4: Price Stability and Financial Market - The overall price level remained stable, with CPI unchanged year-on-year and PPI's decline narrowing, indicating effective macroeconomic policies [15][16]. - In December, CPI rose by 0.8% year-on-year, driven by seasonal increases in food prices and industrial consumer goods [16][17]. - The capital market became a vital channel for converting deposits into investments in the real economy, with direct financing increasing by 16.7 trillion yuan, accounting for 46.9% of social financing [20][21]. Group 5: Policy Recommendations for 2026 - The focus for 2026 includes stabilizing employment, enterprises, and market expectations while enhancing macroeconomic policy effectiveness [24][27]. - Recommendations include increasing support for the real estate market, enhancing service consumption financing, and addressing local fiscal challenges [27][29][30]. - Emphasis on optimizing the evaluation system for major economic provinces to encourage their role in national strategies and improve resource allocation [30].