文 / 张向东 中国 "家族成员参与管理"的家族企业数量，超过了 5100 万家，占全部民营企业的 90% 以上。 如果以 "家族成员担任董事长或总经理"为标准，家族企业占比达 85% 以上，总数超过了 4800 万 家。 从创业到守业，企业家该如何保卫财富安全？在穿透式监管下，企业家如何建立 "业"与"家"之间的 防火墙？家族传承，"传权"和"传利"该如何平衡？绝对控股的实控人为什么不能把上市公司当成"自 己的公司"？ 2025 年 10 月 30 日，北京大学光华管理学院《研究简报》第 335 期发布了上述数据。这份简报 的标题为《民营企业代际传承高峰期可能引发的经济社会风险及对策建议》。 《研究简报》指出， 中国民营企业面临大规模代际传承。未来 30 年，中国将有 84 万亿民营财富 移交下一代。 《研究简报》援引全国工商联调研及波士顿咨询公司数据称，中国百强家族企业创始人 2025 年平 均年龄已达 66 岁，其中 26% 年龄在 70 岁以上。截至 2025 年 1 月， A 股上市公司 5338 位 在职董事长中， 2622 位年龄在 50~59 岁（占比 49% ）， 1429 人年龄在 60~ ...

Macro and Financial - China's foreign exchange reserves increased for the sixth consecutive month, reaching $339.91 billion by the end of January 2026, up by $41.2 billion or 1.23% from December 2025. Gold reserves also rose for 15 months, totaling 7.419 million ounces, with a month-on-month increase of 40,000 ounces [2] - The State Council is exploring policies to promote effective investment, focusing on major projects in infrastructure, urban renewal, public services, and emerging industries [3] - The People's Bank of China and eight other departments reiterated the ban on virtual currency activities, classifying them as illegal financial activities within the country [4] - A new document was released to cultivate data circulation service institutions, aiming to enhance the marketization and value of data elements [5] Capital Market - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced strict regulations on the issuance of asset-backed securities tokens based on domestic assets overseas [10] - The domestic ETF market has become the largest in Asia, with a market size of approximately $860 billion by the end of 2025, surpassing Japan. The net inflow of funds into ETFs exceeded 1.16 trillion yuan, with bond ETFs attracting 552.7 billion yuan [11] - A joint effort by five departments targets illegal "agent rights protection" activities on social media platforms, particularly in short videos and live streaming [12] - Gold and silver prices have shown significant volatility, deviating from stability, with major mining companies experiencing drastic stock price changes [13][14] - The European Commission has initiated an investigation into Chinese company Goldwind Technology under the Foreign Subsidies Regulation, raising concerns about trade barriers [15][16] Business and Industry - The Ministry of Commerce is developing a "1+N" policy system to foster new growth points in service consumption, with specific support policies for various sectors [20] - Nationwide implementation of direct payment of maternity allowances to individuals has been achieved, with efforts to include more workers in the maternity insurance coverage [21] - Hainan province is launching a "zero tariff" policy for daily consumer goods, with the first five duty-free stores set to open [22] - Kuaishou has been fined 119 million yuan for issues related to inappropriate content on its platform and has committed to rectifying the situation [23] - Elon Musk emphasized the importance of energy production and capacity over traditional currency in future economic frameworks [24] - China's commercial space sector is expected to enter a phase of high-frequency launches by 2026, following successful tests of reusable spacecraft technology [24] - Nvidia's CEO expressed optimism about AI development, indicating that demand for AI infrastructure will remain strong in the coming years [25]

01 涨跌速览 本周 股市场整体承压运行，主要指数普遍收跌，结构性分化特征进一步加剧。 数据显示，全市场 41 个主要指数中仅有 2 个实现周度上涨，其余指数 不同程度下行。科创 50 、创业板指跌幅居前，大盘价值风格相对稳健，小微盘股跌势有所放缓，而中盘股成为本轮调整的重点区域。 从市场整体表现看，本周并未出现系统性恐慌性下跌，但风险偏好持续回落，节前资金谨慎特征显著。 行业层面，本周 A 股延续明显轮动特征。 日常消费、工业等防御性和早周期板块表现相对占优，成为资金阶段性避险的重要方向；与此同时，信息技 术、材料等前期涨幅较大的成长板块出现明显回调，科技与资源类板块调整压力集中释放。 个股层面，周涨幅居前的标的以超跌小盘股和部分消费防御类个股为主 ；而周跌幅榜中，贵金属、科技板块个股集中回调，此前高估值、高弹性方向的 去风险过程仍在延续。 户 外 缩量缓跌、情绪筑底, 节前市场进入防守与观望阶段 行业轮动:消费防御领涨, 成长板块深度回调体调整 本周A股行业轮动日常消费、工业等防御性与早周期板 块领涨,信息技术、材料等前期热门成长板块大幅回调。 行业周涨跌幅 (%) 2026.02.02 - 2026.0 ...

Market Overview - The three major indices in A-shares experienced slight declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.25% to 4065 points, the Shenzhen Component down 0.33%, and the ChiNext down 0.73% [2] - The total market turnover was 2.16 trillion yuan, a decrease of 308 billion yuan from the previous trading day, with over 2700 stocks rising [2] Sector Performance - The oil and gas, chemical, and mining sectors showed strong performance, with multiple stocks such as Tongyuan Petroleum and Junyou Co. hitting the daily limit [4] - The chemical sector saw an overall increase of 1.45%, with core sub-industries like basic chemicals and diversified chemicals leading the gains [16] - The basic chemical sector had a net inflow of over 156.73 billion yuan, while the power equipment sector saw a net inflow exceeding 203.54 billion yuan [6] Fund Flow Analysis - Main funds shifted away from defense, media, and food and beverage sectors, moving towards power equipment and basic chemicals [5] - The chemical industry ETF saw significant inflows, with a total of 14.49 billion yuan in net inflows over the past 15 days, indicating strong market confidence in the sector [20] Stock Highlights - Hunan Gold and Data Port were among the top gainers, with net inflows of nearly 29 billion yuan and over 20 billion yuan, respectively [10] - Stocks like Hunan Rihua and Zhejiang Wenlian saw significant outflows, with declines of 7.63% and 9.79% [10] Market Sentiment - The market is currently in a "trial period," with a high number of first-day limit-up stocks but lacking a unified logic, indicating rapid rotation of funds [14] - The strong performance of the chemical sector is attributed to a combination of rising product prices, supply-side contraction, and demand from emerging sectors, suggesting a fundamental recovery rather than mere speculation [17]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the stock market and investment strategies, emphasizing the risks associated with high market valuations and the importance of cautious investment approaches for ordinary investors [2][24]. Group 1: Market Conditions and Investment Strategies - "Banking Screw" has completely suspended the subscription of stock-related fund advisory portfolios, indicating a belief that the current stock market is relatively high, with potential volatility risks of 20-30% for new investors [2][24]. - Ordinary investors are advised to consider low-volatility dividend index funds as a more suitable entry point due to their relative stability compared to high-volatility sectors like the Sci-Tech Board and Growth Enterprise Market [4][12]. - The article highlights the importance of understanding market cycles, suggesting that in a bull market's later stages, investors should be cautious and consider dividend strategies, while growth stocks may be more suitable during bear market recovery phases [18][19]. Group 2: Investor Behavior and Fund Performance - A significant portion of fund investors have experienced losses despite overall fund profitability, with 37% of investors losing money even in a bull market as of September 2025 [9][10]. - The primary reasons for investor losses include chasing market trends and frequent trading, which lead to higher transaction costs and lower average returns [10][11]. - The article notes that the growth of dividend funds has been accelerated by declining interest rates, making their cash flow more attractive compared to traditional savings [13][14]. Group 3: Key Signals for 2026 - Two critical signals for 2026 include the Federal Reserve's interest rate cycle and the recovery of corporate earnings, which could significantly impact market conditions [5][30]. - The article emphasizes the need to monitor the recovery of earnings growth to historical averages, as this could provide a positive push for the overall market [37][38]. - The potential tightening of global liquidity due to the end of the Fed's rate-cutting cycle is highlighted as a risk factor that could affect previously high-performing assets [33][34].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "Spring Festival Effect" in the A-share market, emphasizing that it is not merely about price increases or decreases, but rather about market rhythm and style shifts during this period [3][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - Historical data from 2015 to 2025 indicates that the A-share market exhibits systematic and quantifiable characteristics around the Spring Festival, particularly in overall trends and style rotations [5]. - Pre-festival, market sentiment is generally stable, with the average increase of the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 Index being approximately 0.62% and 0.77% respectively in the last five trading days before the festival, and an upward probability of about 63.6% [6][11]. - Post-festival, the market often enters a sustained upward phase, with the average increase of major indices turning positive within the first ten trading days after the festival, showing an upward probability of 72.7% for the Shanghai Composite Index and 81.8% for the CSI 1000 Index [11][12]. Group 2: Style Rotation - There is a clear rotation in market style before and after the Spring Festival. Before the festival, larger-cap stocks tend to outperform due to lower trading activity and higher certainty in earnings, as indicated by the better performance of the CSI 300 Index compared to the CSI 1000 Index [13][15]. - After the festival, the market sees a significant reversal in style, with the CSI 1000 Index showing an average increase of 2.47% in the first five trading days post-festival, outperforming the CSI 300 Index, which only saw a marginal increase of 0.01% [15][16]. - This shift indicates a return of funds and an increase in risk appetite, with investors favoring smaller-cap growth stocks that are more sensitive to liquidity [15][20]. Group 3: Future Market Predictions - For the 2026 Spring Festival, the report suggests a high probability of a phase of market recovery post-festival, driven by valuation levels, policy expectations, and capital inflows, although the path may be more complex than in previous years [18][19]. - The rotation logic of preferring defensive large-cap stocks before the festival and more elastic assets afterward remains relevant, with a focus on sectors that align with current policy support for technological innovation and new production capabilities [20][21]. - Key sectors to watch post-festival include artificial intelligence, high-end manufacturing, and renewable energy, which are expected to benefit from strong policy drivers and high industry growth [21][22].

贵金属板块今日表现疲软，湖南白银等多股跌停，多股大跌。 光伏设备板块今日继续调整。光伏、 CPO、煤炭等板块跌幅居前。 全市场超 1600只个股上涨，全天成交额超2.1万亿元。市场情绪较前日弱化明显。 2月5日，A股三大指数全天低位窄幅震荡，截至收盘，沪指跌0.64%，深证成指跌1.44%，创业板指跌1.55%。 盘面上，银行板块逆势上涨，厦门银行涨停。 午后，零售板块异动拉升，茂业商业、三江购物涨停。此外，林业、医疗美容、日用化工等板块涨幅居 前。 2月5日，主力资金主要流入传媒、银行、食品饮料等板块，而电力设备、有色金属等遭遇显著抛售。 | | | •主力资金流入TOP5 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 代码 | 证券简称 | 涨跌幅(%) | 主力净流入额(亿元) | | 801760.SI | 传媒(申万) | 0.11 | 62.52 | | 801780.SI | 银行(申万) | 1.57 | 55.02 | | 801120.SI | 食品饮料(申万) | 1.31 | 54.92 | | 801150.SI | 医药生物(申万) | 0.18 | 31 51 ...

2月4日，市场探底回升，沪指重返4100点，深成指翻红，此前一度跌超1%，创业板指午后跌幅收窄。截至收盘，沪指涨0.85%，深成指涨0.21%， 创业板指跌0.4%。 盘面上，市场热点快速轮动，全市场超 3200只个股上涨。从板块来看，煤炭概念掀起涨停潮 ，十余只成分股涨停，陕西黑猫、兖矿能源、中煤能源涨 停。太空光伏概念爆发，中来股份20cm涨停，国晟科技2连板。机场航运概念走强，中国东航、华夏航空涨停。 下跌方面， AI应用、贵金属、算力硬件等板块跌幅居前。 其中AI应用概念集体下挫，引力传媒、天地在线跌停，值得买、世纪恒通等多股大跌。 沪深两市成交额 2.48万亿，较上一个交易日缩量633亿。个股方面，中际旭创成交额超290亿元居首，新易盛成交额237亿元，宁德时代、航天发展、 贵州茅台、信维通信、蓝色光标等成交额靠前。 2 月 4 日， A 股市场呈现分化走势，上证指数上涨 0.85% ，报 4102.2 点；深证成指上涨 0.21% ，创业板指下跌 0.40% 。 主力资金流入前五的板块中，电力设备板块获得显著增持， 主力净流入资金超 200 亿元。 煤炭板块 上涨 7.58% 表现突出 ， 获主力 ...

在声明中，寒武纪还提醒广大投资者，称公司相关事项均以公开披露信息为准，请各位投资者提高信 息辨别能力，不传播、不采信来源不明或未经核实的虚假信息。此外，对于任何捏造、散布传播不实 信息的行为，公司表示将保留追究相关人员法律责任的权利。 值得注意的是，作为国产AI芯片龙头，寒武纪近期业绩预告对外释放出积极信号。根据业绩预告显 示，寒武纪2025年预计营收在60亿元至70亿元之间，同比增长幅度高达410.87%至496.02%；预 计净利润为18.5亿元至21.5亿元，成功实现扭亏为盈。 ad 2月3日，寒武纪官方微信公众号"寒武纪科技"对外发布了严正声明。在该声明中，寒武纪表示， 公 司关注到今日网络传播的关于公司近期组织小范围交流等信息为不实信息，公司近期从未组织任何小 范围交流，没有出具过任何年度、季度营业收入指引数据，相关信息请以公司公开披露的信息为准。 公司目前研发进展顺利，经营稳步推进。 寒武纪解释称，业绩大幅增长主要得益于人工智能行业算力需求的持续提升，公司积极推动AI应用 场景落地，带动营业收入实现同比大幅增长。 ...

Market Overview - On February 3, A-shares experienced a slight opening followed by a decline, but rebounded significantly in the afternoon, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.29%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.19%, and the ChiNext Index by 1.86% [2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was approximately 2.54 trillion yuan, a decrease of about 40.5 billion yuan compared to the previous day [3] Market Sentiment - Market sentiment was strong, with 4.9158 million new A-share accounts opened in January 2026, a month-on-month increase of 89% and a year-on-year increase of 213% compared to January 2025 [5] Sector Performance - High-end manufacturing and technology sectors, including electric equipment, defense, and machinery, saw active capital inflows, while traditional sectors like non-ferrous metals, non-bank financials, and banks experienced capital outflows [6] - The electric equipment sector led with a net capital inflow of 26.748 billion yuan, followed by defense with 17.106 billion yuan and machinery with 15.730 billion yuan [8] - In contrast, the non-ferrous metals sector had a net outflow of 4.542 billion yuan despite a 3.25% increase in the sector index [10] Stock Highlights - Notable stocks with significant capital inflows included Aerospace Development with a net inflow of 4.314 billion yuan, Zhejiang Wenlian with 3.556 billion yuan, and Huasheng Tiancai with 3.079 billion yuan [12] - Conversely, stocks with major capital outflows included Xingye Yinxin with a net outflow of 3.313 billion yuan and Caiwu Jiyuan with 2.765 billion yuan [14] Market Trends - A total of 83 stocks hit the daily limit up, indicating a clear market theme with structural differentiation, focusing on "new quality productivity" sectors such as photovoltaic, energy storage, and low-altitude economy [15] - The market's focus has shifted from previous "AI computing power" to a systematic layout in "new quality productivity" areas, driven by "hard technology + state-owned enterprise reform" [15] - The space and photovoltaic sectors saw a surge in interest, with over 30 stocks hitting the limit up due to rumors of a merger between SpaceX and xAI [15] Technical Analysis - The market showed a variety of limit-up stocks, with most being first-time limit-ups, indicating a cautious investor sentiment despite a recovery in short-term emotions [19] - The gold and silver markets experienced significant rebounds, with spot gold rising above $4,850 per ounce and spot silver increasing by over 8% [22] - The rebound in precious metals is attributed to a combination of market sentiment recovery, liquidity replenishment, and long-term fundamental support [23]