一年一度陆家嘴论坛前夕，橡树资本联合创始人和联席董事长霍华德·马克斯 在 接受 中国基 金报记者 独家采访时表示，债券市场投资者不喜欢关税政策造成的混乱，预计关税政策模糊 性难以消退。他认为，投资者适度降低对美国资产的配置是合理的。 霍华德·马克斯： 因为事态持续变化，所以它不可能完全消化。当我们说市场"已经定 价"时，指的是市场对关税最终结果的定价。但现实是，没有人能够准确预测六个月 以及 两 年后的关税政策。既然如此，市场怎么可能做到完全定价呢？事实上，关税政策刚刚宣布 时，股票和债券市场的反应都非常负面，随后股市却反弹。这是否意味着关税的影响已经被 市场忽略？还是说市场认为这些影响最终会是良性的？我们无法轻易下结论。 中国基金报： 美国股市在所谓的"大解放日"之后反弹。有人认为，这说明"美国例外论"并未 彻底衰落。一方面，美国仍然拥有强大的创新能力 ； 另一方面，它拥有"七巨头"这样盈利能 力极强的公司。你怎么看"美国例外论"？ 霍华德·马克斯： 谈论"美国例外论"彻底衰落可能并不恰当。过去80 年 到100年间，美国在 全球的卓越地位是由多方面因素共同造就的。创新能力是其中之一，还包括自由市场机制、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of the Hong Kong stock market has been driven by five key sectors: healthcare, technology, consumer, dividends, and finance, forming a "Five Flowers" pattern. The narrowing of the AH premium index indicates a significant reduction in the discount of H-shares relative to A-shares, with some leading stocks even showing a premium for H-shares [1][4][10]. Group 1: Sector Performance - The five sectors have shown remarkable performance due to substantial net inflows from southbound funds, with over 690 billion HKD net purchases in 2023, accounting for 85% of the total net purchases in 2024 [4]. - The top-performing ETFs in the market are predominantly focused on Hong Kong healthcare themes, with returns exceeding 40% since the beginning of the year [4][6]. - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange has seen a significant increase in revenue and net profit, reaching record highs in Q1, driven by the performance of quality companies going public in Hong Kong [4]. Group 2: Fund Performance - Actively managed public funds with significant exposure to Hong Kong stocks, particularly in innovative pharmaceuticals, have reported outstanding returns, with some funds achieving over 98% returns [5][6]. - Funds focusing on new consumer stocks have also performed well, with returns exceeding 60% for certain funds during the same period [6]. Group 3: Drivers of Growth - The sectors driving the "Five Flowers" pattern can be categorized into three types: 1. Performance-driven sectors (technology and consumer) benefiting from AI industry growth and changing consumer habits [8]. 2. Valuation-driven sectors (healthcare) experiencing upward movement due to improved performance and favorable policies [8]. 3. Valuation recovery sectors (dividends and finance) seeing price increases primarily due to valuation adjustments rather than significant earnings growth [8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The current market trends are attributed more to value recovery than short-term capital speculation, with expectations for continued performance in the technology and consumer sectors [10]. - The long-term investment value of Chinese equity assets is highlighted, with a focus on sectors like semiconductors and AI as key areas for future growth [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The telecommunications industry is entering a stable development phase, facing growth challenges. Huawei's Vice Chairman Xu Zhijun emphasizes the need for operators to identify growth opportunities and paths tailored to their unique environments and competition [1]. Group 1: Growth Opportunities - The demand for high-value users is increasing, particularly among specific user groups such as delivery riders and live streamers. The number of global delivery riders is projected to grow from 30 million in 2020 to 70 million by 2024, and expected to reach 160 million by 2030, representing 5% of the global workforce. Their average monthly usage (MOU) is four times that of regular users, with data consumption twice as high and ARPU 1.6 times greater [2]. - The live streaming industry is also experiencing significant growth, with the number of global streamers increasing from 10 million in 2022 to 50 million by 2024, and projected to reach 130 million by 2030, accounting for 4% of the global workforce. Live streamers consume five times more data than regular users, with an average monthly data usage of 100GB in China, and an ARPU four times higher than that of regular users [2]. Group 2: Emerging Business Scenarios - New business scenarios such as esports, smart glasses, and high-speed rail office environments are emerging, showcasing demands for real-time and on-demand services. Operators that capitalize on these opportunities are demonstrating significant growth advantages [3]. Group 3: Video Consumption Potential - Short videos account for approximately 50% of mobile traffic globally, yet the supply and consumption of high-definition (HD) video remain unresolved. Xu Zhijun suggests that a systematic approach is needed to stimulate HD video consumption, highlighting that 1080P video can increase traffic by five times compared to 360P. If users watch 50 hours of 1080P content monthly, their data consumption could reach 31.5GB, while the average monthly data usage in China is only 18.2GB, indicating substantial potential [5]. - Currently, only 22% of mobile video traffic in major Chinese cities consists of 1080P or higher quality. The limitations are attributed to bandwidth costs for OTT platforms and high power consumption of HD playback devices. Xu recommends that operators rationalize internet bandwidth pricing to encourage OTT providers to increase HD content supply, while device manufacturers should innovate to reduce bandwidth costs and power consumption [5]. Group 4: Smart Connected Vehicles - By 2025, 30% of passenger cars in China are expected to feature 5G connectivity, increasing to 95% by 2030. The industry must seize the growth opportunities presented by smart connected vehicles. Xu identifies high 5G IPR costs and T-Box cost sensitivity as key barriers for automotive manufacturers [7]. - He advocates for the GSMA to help control 5G IPR costs and emphasizes the need for healthy competition among operators to avoid price wars that diminish value. Xu also stresses the importance of independent operation for cabin and vehicle connectivity, with B2C models for cabin connections and B2B models for T-Box connections [7]. Group 5: FTTR Technology - FTTR technology is proving valuable for high-end home users, enhancing ARPU and operator revenue. By 2025, FTTR users in China are projected to reach 75 million, while only about 500,000 users exist outside China, indicating significant growth potential [9]. - There are over 500 million individual businesses globally with urgent demands for high-speed, stable, and low-latency networks. If operators can leverage FTTR to meet these needs, it will open up new growth avenues [9].

Core Viewpoint - The securities industry is expected to experience a recovery in performance and valuation in the second half of 2025, driven by multiple positive factors despite recent market underperformance [2][5]. Group 1: Industry Performance and Outlook - As of June 18, 2025, the A-share securities index has declined by 7.51% since the beginning of the year, but the industry's fundamentals continue to improve, with active trading in the A-share market and ongoing capital market reforms [5]. - Citic Securities projects a 17.3% year-on-year growth in net profit for the securities industry in 2025, with an annualized ROE expected to rise to 6% [6]. - Huatai Securities highlights that the implementation of new policies will foster a market environment conducive to long-term investment, benefiting the growth of securities firms [6]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Three investment themes are recommended for the securities sector: firms expected to achieve high growth in mid-2025 with low valuations, leading comprehensive securities firms with balanced business structures, and firms with potential for mergers and acquisitions [3][7]. - Citic Securities suggests focusing on firms that are likely to see significant performance improvements in brokerage and investment trading, as well as those involved in ongoing mergers and acquisitions [8]. Group 3: Industry Transformation - The current securities industry is undergoing significant transformation, with a focus on enhancing trading capabilities, exploring cross-border asset allocation, and increasing investment in client-driven services [9]. - The "Public Fund High-Quality Development Action Plan" is expected to promote high-quality expansion in the industry and favor the differentiated development of fund companies, particularly benefiting leading public securities firms [9].

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has introduced the "Science and Technology Innovation Board Growth Layer" to enhance the inclusivity and adaptability of the system for high-quality technology enterprises, particularly those that are currently unprofitable [1][2]. Group 1: Establishment of the Growth Layer - The Growth Layer is designed to serve technology companies that have significant technological breakthroughs, broad commercial prospects, and substantial ongoing R&D investments, which are currently unprofitable [2]. - Both existing unprofitable companies and newly listed unprofitable companies will be included in the Growth Layer [2]. Group 2: Regulatory Mechanisms - The Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) has established mechanisms focusing on three main areas: implementation standards and procedures, risk disclosure enhancement, and improvement of information disclosure quality [3][4][5]. - The rules specify the criteria for companies to enter or exit the Growth Layer, ensuring that existing listed companies are not adversely affected [4]. - Companies in the Growth Layer will have their stocks or depositary receipts marked with a special identifier "U," and investors must sign a risk disclosure document when investing in newly registered companies [5]. Group 3: Expansion of the Fifth Set of Standards - The expansion of the Fifth Set of Standards will support companies in emerging fields such as artificial intelligence, commercial aerospace, and low-altitude economy, which are crucial for future industrial growth [8]. - The Fifth Set of Standards is aimed at high-quality enterprises that have significant technological advantages and large market potential, with a focus on those that have achieved preliminary results [8]. Group 4: Pre-Review Mechanism for IPO Applications - The introduction of a pre-review mechanism for IPO applications allows qualified technology companies to have their application documents reviewed by the SSE before formal submission, enhancing the quality and efficiency of the application process [9][10]. - This mechanism is similar to practices in mature overseas markets, which have been well-received by technology companies seeking a more favorable listing environment [9][10]. Group 5: Ongoing Oversight and Disclosure Requirements - The SSE will maintain strict standards for the review process, ensuring that the quality of the review and the rights of investors are protected, regardless of whether a company has undergone pre-review [11]. - Companies are still required to fulfill all information disclosure obligations, including disclosing inquiries and responses from the pre-review phase when they formally submit their IPO applications [10][11].

基金市场又迎来重磅新品！ 在6月18日举行的2025陆家嘴论坛上，中国证监会主席吴清表示，今天，证监会将批复全国 首批2只数据中心REITs注册，下一步将继续支持科技企业利用知识产权、数据资产等新型资 产开展资产证券化、REITs等融资，进一步盘活科技创新领域存量资产。 中国证监会和交易所官网显示，南方万国数据中心REIT、南方润泽科技REIT日前双双获批。 业内人士表示，首批数据中心公募REITs获批，是在国家大力推进新基建与数字经济发展的背 景下，资本市场服务实体经济的又一创新实践。 首批数据中心REITs获批 此次获批的南方润泽科技REIT以全国领先的综合算力中心领域的科技公司——润泽智算科技 集团旗下国际信息云聚核港（ICFZ）A-18数据中心项目为底层资产，项目位于全国一体化算 力网络京津冀国家枢纽节点的核心地带，是支撑区域数字经济高质量发展的重要基础设施。 业内人士表示，南方润泽科技REIT实现了对存量优质资产的有效盘活，打通了民营科技企业 创新融资渠道，有望进一步助力数字中国建设、培育新质生产力、推动民营经济高质量发 展。 REITs市场迎来新品种，首批2只数据中心REITs正式获批，沪深交易所 ...

美东时间 6 月 18 日周三，美国三大股指涨跌不一，美联储维持利率不变。投资者担忧美国 可能更直接军事介入以色列与伊朗的交火。伊朗最高领袖表示，美国军事干预将招致无法挽 回的后果。 稳定币第一股 Circle 涨近 34% ，创 6 月 5 日美国 IPO 以来最大单日涨幅。 WTI 收于每桶 75 美元上方，创下 1 月以来的最高收盘价。 美联储维持利率不变 截至收盘，道指跌 0.1% ，报 42171.66 点；标普 500 指数跌 0.03% ，报 5980.87 点； 纳指涨 0.13% ，报 19546.27 点。 （图片来源：东方财富APP，统计截至2025/6/18，不作投资推荐） 美联储公布 6 月利率决议，将基准利率维持在 4.25% ～ 4.50% 不变，连续第四次会议按兵 不动，符合市场预期。 美联储表示，前景的不确定性已减弱，但仍然处于较高水平。美联储将 2025 年 GDP 预估 下调至 1.4% ，将通胀预期上调至 3% 。 根据美联储的点阵图预测， 2025 年预计实施两次降息，共 50 个基点 ，这与三月份的预期 相符。然而， 2026 年降息幅度将仅为 25 个基点，之前预 ...

亚太市场，剧烈波动！ 6月19日早间，日本股市开盘后直线跳水，日经225指数盘中一度跌近1%；韩国股市也大幅波动，一度从上涨 0.8%跳水至下跌0.6%。另外，中国香港股市19日早盘也低开。其中，香港恒生指数开盘跌0.38%，恒生科技指 数跌0.52%。 隔夜，美联储将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%之间不变。美联储主席鲍威尔警告称，美国政府 的关税政策可能会加剧美国通胀水平，给美国经济带来压力。当天尾盘，美股三大指数出现跳水行情。 今日（6月19日），美股三大股指期货继续下跌，截至券商中国记者发稿，道指期货跌0.32%，纳指期货跌 0.47%，标普500指数期货跌0.38%。 此前，美国针对日本汽车行业征收25%的进口关税，这对日本制造业造成了沉重打击。因为日本作为出口导向 型国家，汽车出口在其经济增长中占据重要地位。去年，日本向美国出口了价值21万亿日元的商品，其中汽车 约占总额的28%。 关税谈判没有进展 日本、韩国股市下跌 6月19日，日本股市低开低走，日经225指数盘中一度跌近400点，最大跌幅接近1%。 （图片来源：东方财富APP，统计截至2025/6/19，不作投资推荐） 韩国股 ...

免责声明 以上观点来自相关机构，不代表天天基金的观点，不对观点的准确性和完整性做任何保证。 收益率数据仅供参考，过往业绩和走势风格不预示未来表现，不构成投资建议。转引的相关 戳阅读原文，立即填写问卷！ 分享、点赞、在看 顺手三连越来越有钱 为促进长期投资、价值投资、理性投资，诚邀您参加由中证金融研究院和西南财经大学中国 家庭金融调查与研究中心联合开展的 "投资者行为与储蓄投资转化研究"问卷调查。本问卷为 匿名填报，填写约需 10分钟。我们承诺，问卷数据仅用于科学研究及政策优化，不会泄露您 的个人信息。 填完问卷您将获得一份您个人投资行为的简要测评，作为您观察自身投资习惯 的参考。 只要完成问卷填写， 就可获得 随机微信红包 ！ （通过 数字验证和学历验证并完成问卷，弹 出二维码后领取即可） 长按下方二维码或点击底部阅读原文即可填写问卷。 长按下方二维码填写问卷 感谢您的参与，祝您健康愉快！ ...

Group 1 - The number of college graduates in China surpassed 10 million for the first time in 2022, reaching 10.76 million, and is expected to continue increasing, with the 2025 cohort projected to reach 12.22 million, an increase of 430,000 year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The average salary for urban non-private sector employees in 2024 is projected to be 124,110 yuan annually, or 10,343 yuan monthly, while for private sector employees, the average salary is 69,476 yuan annually, or 5,623 yuan monthly [2] - The nominal year-on-year growth rate for average salaries in urban non-private units is 2.8%, while for private units, it is 1.7%, both lower than recent growth levels [2] - In the non-private sector, the highest average salary in 2024 is in the information technology industry at 239,000 yuan per year, followed by the financial industry at 201,900 yuan per year, and the scientific and technical services industry at 175,400 yuan per year [2] - In the private sector, the financial industry has the highest average salary at 135,300 yuan per year, followed by the information technology industry at 123,200 yuan per year; both are the only two sectors with an average monthly salary exceeding 10,000 yuan last year [2]