和国泰基金多资产配置部投资总监曾辉聊了整整一个下午后，我们首先感受到的，是他对多资产这个细分行业过 去和未来的思考与热情。 其次，亲身感受到了他对风险的态度。 访谈这天指数跌破 3900 点，访谈期间他出去了 2 次，去执行刚性风控来控制组合的最大回撤。他对回撤似乎 非常敏感。 我们还感受到了他对寻找多资产配置新出路的坚持。 过去几年，公募 FOF 给投资人的真实的体感并不算太好，看上去什么都配了一点，但市场调整时该跌的都没少 跌，反之该涨时弹性又不足。 多资产配置目前被很多人曲解为"拼盘生意"，但曾辉肯定地说这未来是一个集大成的技术活，尤其是一个团队协 作下的顶尖技术活。 据 Choice 数据统计，曾辉在管产品共 6 只。截至三季度末，其权益代表产品国泰优选领航一年，近一年收益 52.59% ， 业绩同类第 1 ；曾辉管理的国泰瑞悦 3 个月持有债券 FOF 近一年收益率 4.98% ，同类排名第 2 。 | 产品名称 | 投资类型 | | | 任职日期 近一年收益 银河排名 当前权益中枢 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国泰瑞悦3个月持有债券(FO ...

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected departure of Todd Combs from Berkshire Hathaway marks a significant transition in the company's leadership, particularly in its insurance sector, where he has made notable contributions to GEICO's turnaround and operational efficiency [4][5][6]. Group 1: Leadership Changes - Todd Combs has resigned from Berkshire Hathaway to join JPMorgan Chase as a special advisor to CEO Jamie Dimon, after serving as CEO of GEICO since 2020 [5][7]. - Combs' departure was announced in a press release on December 8, which also included other leadership appointments within Berkshire's non-insurance and insurance businesses [4][6]. Group 2: Contributions to GEICO - Under Combs' leadership, GEICO experienced significant profitability growth and operational reforms, which were highlighted in Warren Buffett's shareholder letter earlier this year [6]. - Buffett praised Combs for his efforts in revitalizing GEICO, referring to it as a "gem" that required polishing, and noted the impressive progress expected in 2024 [6]. Group 3: Future Plans at JPMorgan Chase - At JPMorgan, Combs will initially manage a $10 billion investment plan, which is expected to grow to $1.5 trillion aimed at promoting economic growth and enhancing safety [7]. - The investment plan will include an external advisory committee featuring prominent figures such as Jeff Bezos and Michael Dell [8]. Group 4: Combs' Background and Philosophy - Todd Combs joined Berkshire Hathaway in 2010 and has been recognized for his investment acumen and leadership qualities, having been a protégé of both Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger [5][6][36]. - His investment philosophy emphasizes the importance of curiosity and perseverance, which he believes are essential for long-term success in investing [10].

Core Viewpoint - Vanke's bond extension has led to a significant drop in bond prices, marking the first time in its history that such an extension has occurred, raising concerns about the company's financial stability and creditworthiness [3][4]. Group 1: Bond Market Reaction - Vanke's bond "22 Vanke MTN004," with a face value of 3% and a scale of 2 billion, has had its principal and interest payments postponed by one year, causing a collective plunge in Vanke's bonds [3]. - Following the announcement, several Vanke bonds experienced a single-day drop exceeding 20%, triggering temporary trading suspensions, with prices plummeting from around 90 yuan to approximately 20 yuan [4]. - Standard & Poor's downgraded Vanke's credit rating from "BB+" to "CCC-" due to the company's rising debt, which stood at approximately 320 billion yuan as of Q3 2023, alongside pressures from declining profits [4]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Market Dynamics - Investors initially perceived Vanke's bonds as stable investments but were suddenly confronted with the complexities of real estate cycles, local finances, policy directions, and credit support structures [5]. - The situation reflects a broader theme discussed by investor Howard Marks, highlighting the disconnect between perceived safety and actual risk in the market [5][6]. - The current market sentiment is characterized by a shaky optimism, with investors feeling compelled to remain in the market due to fear of missing out (FOMO) [11][12]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Risk Management - In the context of private credit markets, Marks emphasizes the importance of maintaining rigorous credit standards amidst a trend of lowered investment criteria by others [33][34]. - The discussion includes the potential for high-yield bonds and private credit to outperform cash, with current liquidity credit yields around 7%, though net returns may be lower after accounting for management fees and default risks [19][27]. - Marks warns that the increasing number of active private credit managers may limit the potential for excess returns, suggesting that the market is becoming more efficient [31][32].

本周值得看： 上周从宝藏库里面精译整理了一篇大部头，是Baillie Gifford传奇基金经理詹姆斯·安德森在2019年亲笔 撰写的一篇雄文——《格雷厄姆还是增长？》（Graham or Growth?） 1.8万字，看得酣畅淋漓。希望你跟我一样很喜欢。 点击阅读： 1.8万字｜柏基"传奇基金经理"詹姆斯·安德森2019年深度撰文：如何看待高成长与经典价值 还有一篇反响很好的转载文，缘起于两位投资圈的好友不约而同分享了风和基金创始人胡猛在北大价值 投资课堂上的交流。 1、 下阶段A股主要矛盾是基本面！中泰资管姜诚近期交流：知识要挑难的学，投资决策要挑简单的做 2、 明年投资要降低预期！景林高云程最新交流回答12个高关注问题 3、 中国资产已重回全球投资者布局的舞台中心！大摩邢自强最新发声：2026年的政策基调大概率还是渐 进、温和的 4、 公募量化都在说的AI赋能，如何能真正穿越周期获取超额？ 5、 港股证券怎么又热了？ 看完记得 点击视频右下角头像 ， 关注【聪明投资者视频号】 ，带你看投资智慧的浓缩精华。 转载开白， 请联系小编微信【fanxiaocom】，添加备注 "转载+新媒体名+姓名" ，按顺序邀 ...

4、中国最强AI模型和公有云业务。在AI时代，想用AI，大部分企业必须用公有云； "像 2025年这样比较容易赚钱的年份不会太多，所以明年我觉得要降低预期。" "我的大概率判断是，中国会保持非常宽松的货币环境和流动性水平，这让股票市场中的优质公司的估值是比较稳定的。" "在做投资时，要把核心要素的权重放的足够大，就是买对好公司。剩下的都是次要条件、次要因素，权重很低。" "（产业板块的机会）未来半年到一年，在新能源（尤其是储能）和人工智能的应用（不管是软件还是与硬件结合）可能会出现一些机会。" 景林 资产管理合伙人、总经理高云程 ，近日在客户交流中回答了12个关注度很高的问题。 今年初高云程提出"MCGF"的投资线索，即"Make China Greater Future"。在半年度致持有人信中，他具象了这些线索的聚焦领域，主要包括： 1、大众娱乐社交平台，正在朝AIagent快速迭代； 2、无论谁设计最先进的芯片，都需要请他来做，具备强定价权； 3、在美元长期趋势出现动摇的情况下，拥有稀缺金铜资源的企业； 5、运动，户外生活方式的品牌矩阵经营集团。公司的供应链和品牌运营能力在持续提升，肉眼可见的和对手拉开了 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses how AI empowerment in public quantitative funds can effectively navigate market cycles to achieve excess returns [2] Group 1: AI Empowerment in Quantitative Funds - AI technology is increasingly being integrated into public quantitative funds, enhancing their ability to analyze data and make investment decisions [2] - The article emphasizes the importance of adapting AI strategies to different market conditions to maintain performance [2] - Historical data shows that funds utilizing AI have outperformed traditional investment strategies during volatile periods [2] Group 2: Market Trends and Performance - Recent trends indicate a growing interest in AI-driven investment solutions, with significant capital inflows into these funds [2] - The performance metrics of AI-enabled funds demonstrate a consistent increase in returns, with some funds reporting up to a 20% higher return compared to their non-AI counterparts [2] - The article highlights the necessity for continuous innovation in AI algorithms to keep pace with changing market dynamics [2]

Core Viewpoint - Value investment is not limited to stocks; any asset that generates cash returns can be evaluated using value investment principles [12][18]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The main contradiction in the A-share market is the fundamentals, requiring attention to both short-term and long-term developments [18][20]. - The worst situation for A-share fundamentals has already passed, with the lowest point occurring in the second half of last year [19]. - Current A-share market valuation is not the primary issue, as the absolute level of valuation has not changed significantly despite fluctuations in stock prices [19][20]. Group 2: Investment Performance - The performance of investment products managed by Jiang Cheng has been relatively flat this year, with a year-to-date return of 8.15% for the Zhongtai Xingyuan fund [4][5]. - Despite a challenging third quarter, the cumulative returns of Jiang Cheng's products remain robust, with the Zhongtai Xingyuan fund still showing positive absolute returns [7][8]. Group 3: Sector Insights - In the banking sector, while profit growth is modest, the improvement in net interest margins is noteworthy, with most banks showing a halt in the decline of their margins [20][21]. - The real estate sector is under scrutiny, with a focus on the profitability of land acquired by major developers, which currently shows optimistic profit margins [23][30]. Group 4: AI Investment Perspective - A significant amount of research has been dedicated to artificial intelligence, with 95% of recent efforts focused on this area [10][25]. - The current market conditions for AI-related investments are uncertain, with concerns about whether the high valuations are justified [25][26]. Group 5: Investment Philosophy - The essence of value assessment is the present value of future cash returns, emphasizing the importance of sustainable competitive advantages and business models [13][15]. - Avoiding mistakes is prioritized over seeking correctness in investment decisions, highlighting a cautious approach to risk management [17][18].

"'9・24'政策转向最关键的意义在于，让资本市场和企业家的信心有所回升。" "过去10年大家对'美元资产一枝独秀'的认知，正逐渐进入去魅过程。" "2026年的政策基调大概率还是渐进、温和的；财政政策有望比2025年略加发力，但力度不会太大。" "我对'十五五'规划中这些'星辰大海'式的科技创新目标深信不疑，它们能让投资者在经济仍面临较大挑战的 背景下，找到新质生产力的亮点。不过需要反复强调的是 ，这些新质生产力无法完全抵消传统经济调整带 来的影响。" "展望2026年、2027年，打破通缩的进程绕不 开一个关键问题，即如何让房地产市场尽快止跌回稳。" "香港的经验已经证明，当按揭利率压低到与租金回报率接近时，房地产市场止跌回稳就不远了。" 以上是 摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛理事邢自强 在今天（ 12月3日）第十届智通 财经资本市场年会中分享的最新观点。 在本次交流的开始，邢自强便直言，在 过去的一年半里，中国资本市场 在政策、企业、资金的三重变化 下， 呈现出 了 新气象。 也因此，在全球多元化布局中，外资机构将目光重新投向中国是必然趋势。 展望 2026年，邢自强表示政策基调依然维 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving perspectives on growth and value investing, highlighting the need to reassess traditional investment principles in light of modern economic realities and the success of high-growth companies [5][6][25]. Group 1: Growth vs. Value Investing - James Anderson acknowledges a widening divide between growth and value investing, suggesting that traditional value metrics may not suffice in a changing economic landscape dominated by tech giants like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon [7][20]. - Despite the differences, Anderson emphasizes that both growth and value investing share common principles, such as the importance of honest long-term cash flow estimation and risk management [8][25]. - The article references the historical context of growth investing, noting a lack of comprehensive literature supporting long-term growth strategies compared to the extensive documentation of value investing [12][14]. Group 2: Case Studies of Companies - Microsoft serves as a prime example of a company that has achieved significant long-term growth, with revenue increasing from $60 billion in 2008 to $110 billion in 2018, showcasing a compound annual growth rate of 24% [22]. - Google, now Alphabet, also illustrates the potential for sustained growth, with revenue rising from $21.8 billion in 2008 to $136.8 billion in 2018 [23]. - The article contrasts Coca-Cola's stagnation in stock value over the past 20 years with Facebook's growth trajectory, suggesting that Facebook may align more closely with value investing principles despite its high valuation metrics [82][88]. Group 3: Economic Structural Changes - The article posits that the current economic environment is undergoing profound changes, necessitating a reevaluation of investment strategies that account for systemic transformations rather than relying solely on historical performance [44][46]. - It highlights the shift from asset-heavy to knowledge-based economies, where companies like Facebook and Google thrive due to network effects and scale advantages [71][73]. - The discussion includes the implications of these changes for future investment returns, suggesting that traditional metrics may not adequately capture the potential of companies operating in rapidly evolving sectors [41][60]. Group 4: Industry Examples - The automotive industry is examined, with General Motors and BMW representing traditional value stocks facing challenges, while Ferrari exemplifies a company achieving high margins and cash flow despite low sales volume [100][104][107]. - The article notes that the automotive sector is experiencing significant disruption, particularly with the rise of electric vehicles and changing consumer preferences, which complicates traditional valuation methods [96][98]. - The contrasting performance of companies within the automotive sector illustrates the broader theme of how different business models and market positions can lead to varying investment outcomes [100][106].

以下文章来源于苔藓花园播客 ，作者胡猛 苔藓花园播客 . 深度研究商业思维。 长期积累卓越公司的商业模式， 长期积累查理芒格的思维模型。 有两位投资圈的好友不约而同来分享了风和基金创始人胡猛在北大价值投资课堂上的交流。 他们说，很有意思，胡猛虽然在讲投机，其实底层认知跟价值投资殊途同归。 比如他说， "投资中 最重要的是诚实"。 " 投资是关于未来，人对未来的判断多数不靠谱。" " 要相信事实，以及变化的事实，要尊重事实，不要尊重你自己过去所谓的研究。" " 我们投资要脚踏实地，对每个企业做滚动研究，每个季报不要错过，每个季报是证明或者证伪你判断的机会，要珍惜这个机会。" "当市场都认为是存量经济，你就不要去这么想。不要轻易去下这自上而下的结论，要具体一个产业一个产业的去看。" "我们公司每一个基金经理，都必须对公司的商业模式、管理层、产品、市场、利润表有很深的分析。" 都是价值投资者非常熟悉的投资语境。 胡猛于2009年创办风和基金，总部位于新加坡，其管理的旗舰产品风和亚洲基金最新规模约65亿美元。 没有见过胡猛，看了交流实录，真真是几十年投资老法师的大实话，而且认知上非 常有共鸣点。 只是从自身管理的资金 ...