本周 推荐阅读 父亲节快乐的日子。本周付费专栏有上新。 2008年春天，84岁的查理·芒格回到他的母校加州理工做了一场100分钟的交流。这场对话并不广为人 知。 跟他同台对话的是当时72岁的物理学家汤姆·（Tom Tombrello），芒格自己亲自挑选的对话搭子。跟芒 格一样，汤布雷洛也是个多元学科的"杂家"，听《拉美莫尔的露琪亚》歌剧能听出一个特别怪的音色， 那是来自于本杰明·富兰克林发明的 "玻璃琴"。 4、 22年前25万美金拍下"巴菲特午餐"，绿光资本艾因霍恩：市场失灵了，现在的价值投资者有点像恐 龙…… 看完记得 点击视频右下角头像 ， 关注【聪明投资者视频号】 ，带你看投资智慧的浓缩精华。 转载开白， 请联系小编微信【fanxiaocom】，添加备注 "转载+新媒体名+姓名" ，按顺序邀请加入媒体转载群 商务合作， 请添加聪明牛牛【微信congmingtzz1/ 手机13262200706 】，添加备注 "合作+机构名+姓名 " 具体 商议 1、 说什么大实话！"盈利王"城堡投资创始人肯·格里芬最新对话谈关税、美债及"大而美法案"…… 2、 为什么泡泡玛特没遇上真正的对手？王宁2023年一场精彩的 ...

Core Viewpoint - David Einhorn, founder of Greenlight Capital, expresses concerns about market inefficiencies and the challenges faced by value investors in a market dominated by passive funds and algorithmic trading [1][3][13]. Group 1: Market Environment and Challenges - The market structure has changed, making it difficult for traditional value investors to find undervalued stocks [1][13]. - Einhorn notes that the dominance of passive funds and algorithmic trading has weakened the environment for value investing, as many investors are no longer focused on finding undervalued assets [3][15]. - The current market is primarily driven by three types of participants: index funds, algorithmic traders, and retail investors, which has shifted the focus away from fundamental analysis [15][16]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Greenlight Capital focuses on buying undervalued companies and shorting overvalued stocks, maintaining a core belief in value investing despite market challenges [12][17]. - Einhorn emphasizes that even if a company's price does not recover, it may still be worth investing in if it can provide reasonable returns through dividends or buybacks [3][18]. - The firm has historically achieved an annualized return of approximately 13% since its inception, although it faced significant challenges post-2015 [2][24]. Group 3: Personal Insights and Experiences - Einhorn has a deep respect for Warren Buffett and has attempted to emulate some of his investment strategies, including the use of insurance float for capital [4][5]. - He highlights the importance of adapting to changing market conditions and acknowledges that the firm has had to reassess its strategies in light of recent market dynamics [7][72]. - Einhorn's investment philosophy is shaped by his experiences and the belief that acknowledging mistakes is crucial for long-term success [74][96].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution and success of Pop Mart under the leadership of founder Wang Ning, emphasizing the company's unique position in the market and its innovative approach to the "trendy toy" industry, which has seen significant growth and transformation over the years [4][9][57]. Group 1: Company Overview - Pop Mart's market capitalization has increased significantly, rising from approximately HKD 28 billion to a peak of 12 times its value in less than two years [4]. - Wang Ning, at 35 years old in 2023, has been recognized as a leading entrepreneur, reflecting on his journey from opening the first store in 2008 to establishing Pop Mart as a major player in the industry [8][9]. - The company has successfully transformed the perception of toys, targeting not just children but also adults, thereby creating a substantial market demand [9][10]. Group 2: Business Model and Strategy - Pop Mart operates with a clear focus on transparency in its business practices, continuously analyzing what products sell best and how to market them effectively [10][19]. - The company has identified two main barriers to entry in the industry: soft barriers related to the scarcity of talented artists and hard barriers concerning operational management and attention to detail [21][29]. - Wang Ning emphasizes the importance of respecting time and operational management, stating that successful businesses must focus on the minutiae of daily operations [31][33]. Group 3: Market Insights - The article highlights the dual nature of consumer behavior, where both satisfaction and a sense of identity play crucial roles in purchasing decisions [12][18]. - Pop Mart's success is attributed to its ability to create a cultural ecosystem around its IP (intellectual property), which has expanded into various forms of media and experiences [43][45]. - The company has shifted its focus from merely trendy toys to a broader market of "happiness," indicating a strategic pivot towards creating experiences that resonate with consumers on a deeper emotional level [55][57]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Pop Mart is actively pursuing globalization and diversification of its business model, aiming to increase its international revenue significantly [57][59]. - The company has reported over 100% growth in overseas markets annually, with plans to expand its presence in the U.S. and other international markets [59][60]. - Wang Ning believes that the company's journey is just beginning, with ample opportunities for growth and expansion in the global market [60].

2008 年春天， 84 岁的查理 · 芒格回到他的母校加州理工，在杜布里奇杰出讲座上做了一场 100 分 钟的交流。 跟他同台对话的是当时 72 岁的物理学家汤姆 · （ Tom Tombrello ）。 这也是芒格自己亲自挑选的对话搭子，一名领导加州理工物理、数学与天文学系的学术带头人，同样的 直言不讳、机智幽默。 而且，汤布雷洛也是个多元学科的杂家，听《拉美莫尔的露琪亚》歌剧能听出一个特别怪的音色，那是 来自于本杰明 · 富兰克林发明的 " 玻璃琴 " 。 可以想想，这次交流就十分有趣了。不是单单的提问，是很有高手过招的默契和惺惺相惜。 "我在脑子里给各种人类蠢事都编了目录，成了我一生中最美妙的爱好之一。 你仔细想想，你见过几个不快乐的收藏家？不管是收集古董的，还是收集情人的，他们大多都挺开心。 而收集蠢事？那是快乐翻倍的妙事，便宜、管饱、随手就来。" 怎么说呢，如果你想听到芒格谈投资妙招，估计有点失望的，但如果想想，这些简单大道理恰恰是通往 成功投资的一条大道。 就像芒格对投资新手说的： " 最有用的，是学会用企业家的角度看问题。 意思就是，你得学着像老板那样思考：这套体系怎么才 能帮我挣钱？你一旦换 ...

以下文章来源于IN咖 ，作者聪明投资者 IN咖 . 多视角关注优秀投资人和企业家 " 我原本以为我们正迎来四年的高速增长和美国经济的强劲活力，但如今错失了太多机会。 " 美东时间 6 月 5 日举行 2025 年福布斯 " 异见者峰会 " 上， Citadel 创始人兼 CEO 肯 · 格里芬（ Ken Griffin ）参与了重磅对话，话题直指当下最棘手的三件事：关税风暴、美国债务危机以及 " 大而美法案 " 。 肯 · 格里芬创办的城堡投资（ Citadel ）目前管理的资产超过 660 亿美元。据 LCH Investments 统计， 城堡投资是史上盈利最高的对冲基金，截至 2024 年底，累计 回报约 830 亿美元，遥遥领先第二名 D.E. Shaw 的 672 亿美元，第三名的千禧年（ Millennium）则为 655亿美元。 同时，他旗下的做市巨头城堡证券更是承担了全美约四分之一的股票交易量。 去年 12 月，格里芬还曾对这届政府寄予厚望，期盼它能带来减税、去监管、鼓励增长的新气象，并高调宣 扬"美国已经开始对商业开放 " 。 如今再听他发言，语气早已转向：从关税政策到立法支出，他几乎句句都 ...

本周 推荐阅读 最近的川马口水战真是弹眼落睛。 好吧，忍不住又想起"看人非常全面"的芒格老爷子在2019年对话中对马斯克的评价，岂止是精辟，简直 就是准确预测。 稍稍感受一下。 问：说到电动车，你怎么看特斯拉？这家公司会成为这个领域的头号玩家吗？ 芒格： 它现在的地位，恐怕当初谁也没想到能这么高。马斯克这人，脑子够用，胆子也大，敢孤 注一掷。 聪明投资者，公众号：聪明投资者 芒格谈价值投资、比亚迪、特朗普和马斯克，超精彩的 21分钟（2019年） 其他值得看 1、 地平线为何获得Baillie Gifford青睐？创始人余凯与劳伦斯·伯恩斯最新对话：希望成为"机器人的微 软" 2、 高毅资产吴任昊的内部分享，从航空发动机行业看"超级刀架刀片模式" 3 、 达利欧最新发文谈美国债务危机逼近，再提当下配置黄金"可守可攻" 当然，像他这样的人，有时候能干出惊天动地的事儿，也可能会摔得特别快。 我说不准马斯克最后会走向哪一边，但我觉得他成功的可能性很大，失败的风险也不小，而他对 这种状况乐在其中。 4、 摩根大通掌门人对美国经济症结的犀利拆解 5、 来自海外自由现金流ETF的启示 看完记得 点击视频右下角头像 ， 关 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the investment potential in the aviation engine industry, likening it to a "super razor-and-blade" model where initial sales are low-margin, but long-term service and parts replacement generate significant profits [4][16][22]. Group 1: Investment Insights - The aviation engine industry operates under a "triple constraint" where it must achieve high power, low fuel consumption, and extreme reliability simultaneously, making it a unique and challenging sector [10][12]. - The industry is characterized by a long product lifecycle, with significant cash flow generated from after-market services and parts replacement over decades [29][42]. - The market often misprices long-term value due to short-term fluctuations, presenting opportunities for investors who can identify these discrepancies [6][44]. Group 2: Business Model and Competition - The "super razor-and-blade" model in aviation engines involves selling engines at low margins while profiting from high-margin maintenance and parts over time [16][20]. - The CFM56 engine serves as a prime example of this model, showcasing a lengthy development and delivery cycle that creates a substantial technological moat [17][19]. - The aviation engine market is dominated by a few players, and the industry's focus on safety and compliance creates high barriers to entry for new competitors [27][28]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The aviation industry has recently faced challenges due to supply chain disruptions, impacting the delivery of new aircraft and subsequently increasing demand for after-market services [41][42]. - The industry's reliance on a global supply chain means that any disruption can significantly affect production and service timelines, highlighting the importance of operational resilience [40][41]. - The article notes that while the aviation engine market is currently stable, the long-term outlook remains dependent on technological advancements and the ability to adapt to changing market conditions [37][39].

6 月 4 日，桥水基金创始人瑞 · 达利欧在 X 上发布长文，介绍其新书《国家如何破产：大周期》的核 心观点。 这位全球宏观投资者用 50 年主权债投资经验，再次系统揭示国家如何走向债务危机：不是突然爆发， 而是一个可以量化、可监测的 " 大债务周期 " ，最终演变为系统性失控，正如他所比喻的 " 经济心脏 病发作 " 。 达利欧指出，美国当前财政收入约 5 万亿美元，支出却高达 7 万亿，债务总额逼近 30 万亿，未来十 年更可能升至 55 万亿。当利息支出挤压正常财政、国债需求下滑、央行被迫印钞时，整个货币体系就 将陷入 " 债务 — 通胀 — 再借债 " 的恶性螺旋。 这类机制曾反复出现在历史上，摧毁了英镑、荷兰盾等昔日的全球储备货币体系。 对于更多投资者而言，达利欧的建议一以贯之：在债务扩张、货币贬值的世界中，黄金、比特币等非政 府发行资产或将相对占优；同时，应关注那些财政稳健、地缘政治风险较低的国家市场，并减少对债务 类资产的依赖。 "我认为， 将一小部分资金配置在黄金中，不仅可以降低整个投资组合的风险，还很可能提升组合的长 期回报。 " 达利欧还强调，这场危机并非不可避免，但留给市场应对的时间窗 ...

"汽车正在从纯粹的机械设备，转变为某种像是'装上轮子的计算机'。" 点击阅读：《 巨头Baillie Gifford旗舰基金掌舵人的年度信：在不确定环境中，韧性并不是次要美德， 而是长期成功的核心…… 》 "没有哪个电动车市场像中国这样：极其拥挤，竞争激烈，但它也有望以良好的品质和极低的价格，引 领全球电动车行业。" 地平线是成立于 2015 年的中国 AI 芯片独角兽，专注于为自动驾驶、智能驾驶和通用机器人提供软硬 件一体化的计算平台。 2024 年 10 月 24 日，地平线登陆港股主板市场，成为港股当年最大科技 IPO 。今年 2 月底其股价 曾一度超 10 港元，目前最新市值近千亿港元。 2024 年公司收入 23.84 亿元，同比增长 53.6% ；授权及服务收入增长 70.9% ，毛利率高达 92% ，这意味着公司不仅在卖芯片，还在往更高附加值的软件授权、全栈解决方案转型。 Baillie Gifford 是地平线的主要机构投资者之一。早在私募融资阶段，该公司即已投资地平线，并在 IPO 中认购约 5.07 亿股，投资约 2.6 亿美元，成为最大基石投资者之一。截至 2025 年 4 月，贝利 · ...

其他值得看 他谈到了价值投资的恒久原则，还谈到对外贸易、特朗普、比亚迪、马斯克……充满了普世的胸怀和理 性开放的心态，也有令人叫绝的精准预见。 点击阅读： 芒格谈价值投资、比亚迪、特朗普和马斯克，超精彩的21分钟（2019年） 本周 推荐阅读 1、 巨头Baillie Gifford旗舰基金掌舵人的年度信：在不确定环境中，韧性并不是次要美德，而是长期 成功的核心…… 2019年2月14日，查理·芒格在每日期刊年度股东会结束后，接受了雅虎财经主编安迪·瑟沃（Andy Serwer）的简短采访。 2、 最近卖光美股！82岁吉姆·罗杰斯：我现在坐拥大量现金，策略上和巴菲特完全一样 时隔6年回头看这场针对时事话题的访谈，芒格总能用他标志性的机智与智慧，将讨论带回那些超越时 间的洞见。 太值得回味了！enjoy it～～ 4、 稳健工具箱里的自由现金流和红利，究竟该如何选择？ 看完记得 点击视频右下角头像 ， 关注【聪明投资者视频号】 ，带你看投资智慧的浓缩精华。 转载开白， 请联系小编微信【fanxiaocom】，添加备注 "转载+新媒体名+姓名" ，按顺序邀请加入媒体转载群 商务合作， 请添加聪明牛牛【微信cong ...