以下文章来源于IN咖 ，作者聪明投资者 IN咖 . 多视角关注优秀投资人和企业家 "现在，所有跨国大型药企在审视全球创新格局时，已经开始把上海视作与波士顿、圣地亚哥等传统创新中心并 列的'新核心'来看待。" 6月25日放出的Good company播客节目，挪威主权财富基金掌门人尼古拉·坦根（Nicolai Tangen）邀请了全球创 新药巨头诺华（Novartis）首席执行官万思瀚（Vasant Narasimhan），共同探讨制药业的技术拐点、AI驱动的新 药发现，以及欧洲与中国在全球医药版图中的角色变迁。 作为市值约 2330亿美元的纯创新药龙头，诺华稳居全球药企第一梯队。 万思瀚受过医生训练，曾在发展中国家一线抗击结核病和疟疾，后来一路走到全球最大医药公司之一的掌门 人位置。 自 2018年万思瀚接棒以来，公司剥离爱尔康与山德士等非核心资产后，核心估值从约2100亿美元提升至 当下水平；若将已分拆业务重新计入，总体价值约翻至3300亿美元区间。 据坦根介绍， 挪威主权财富基金持有诺华约 2.3%的股份，市值超过50亿美元 。 谈到备受关注的 AI 在创新药研发中的运用， 万思瀚直言： "真正的问题是， ...

Core Viewpoint - Value investing is about purchasing securities or assets at prices below their actual value, often summarized as "buying for 50 cents what is worth a dollar" [1][25][26] - Investors must balance multiple objectives, including generating returns, long-term capital growth, and risk management, while maintaining liquidity to respond to future needs [5][6] - The future cash flow of a business is the most critical factor in investment decisions [1][15] Group 1: Value Investing Principles - Value investors must become excellent business analysts, especially in the digital age where information is readily available [1][52][55] - The principles of value investing remain applicable despite market changes over the past 90 years, emphasizing the importance of fundamental analysis [7][8] - Market inefficiencies create opportunities for value investors to buy undervalued securities when prices deviate from intrinsic value [16][20][29] Group 2: Market Behavior and Investor Psychology - Stock price fluctuations can be both a challenge and an opportunity, as they often reflect market sentiment rather than the underlying business performance [16][18][20] - Investors must resist the tendency to overreact to price increases while selling off during price declines, which can lead to missed opportunities [33][34][35] - Behavioral biases can significantly impact investment decisions, leading to inefficiencies in the market [29][30][37] Group 3: Valuation Techniques - Valuation is both an art and a science, requiring a combination of analytical skills and subjective judgment [41][51] - Investors should use multiple methods to assess a company's value, including discounted cash flow analysis and market multiples [42][44] - The quality of future cash flows is paramount, and investors must consider the sustainability and sources of growth when evaluating potential investments [46][60][63] Group 4: Management and Corporate Governance - The skills and motivations of a company's management team are crucial for determining shareholder returns, and past actions are often the best predictor of future behavior [50][51] - Investors must be cautious when investing in companies where management may prioritize their interests over those of shareholders [51] - Engaging with underperforming companies can present opportunities for activist investors to unlock value through management changes [51]

在充满变量的当下，《证券分析》提出了哪些可以超越时代变迁的普适性原理？ "在我看来，主要有 3 点。" 重阳投资创始人、 首席投资官 裘国根在为《证券分析》新版推荐序中写道： 股权思维、逆向思维和风险思维 。 这位有着近30年投资实践、经历多轮牛熊的私募教父级人物，对于格雷厄姆投资思想的形成有深刻的理解，在他看来，" 作为股灾的亲历者，对安全边际的 重视成为格雷厄姆构建理论体系时的第一性考量因素。" 所以也就有了美国经济进入高速成长之后，巴菲特芒格在价值投资上的进化——从"捡烟蒂"到 以合理的价格投资优质的公司。 而在中国市场做价值投资，裘国根也不教条。早在多年前，他就提出了一个极具中国特色的方法论，"价值投资接力法"。 他认为，中国市场结构复杂、风格多变、投资者行为短期化特征显著，不能机械套用"长期持有"策略，而应借鉴耶鲁投资模式中对估值安全边际与流动性的 高度重视，在动态环境中进行策略调整与资产切换。 裘国根曾 说，"在中国进行价值投资的有效方法是'接力法'。即投资标的达到预期收益后不要简单机械地长期持有，而是通过'接力'的方式换成另一个安全 边际更大的投资标的。" 这种"赚上半场的钱，而不是下半场的钱， ...

Core Viewpoint - The current policy-making approach in the U.S. is deemed highly irrational, with significant misalignment in resource allocation and economic strategy [38][41][49]. Group 1: Tail Risk and Market Dynamics - Investors' understanding of tail risks has deteriorated, leading to a more distorted pricing of these risks in the current market environment [5][9][10]. - Tail risk hedging strategies can be effective in extreme scenarios, outperforming other hedging methods [5][6][22]. - The market's short-term fluctuations are influenced more by capital flows between different asset classes rather than fundamental economic changes [15][16]. Group 2: Economic and Fiscal Concerns - The U.S. faces structural issues, including a growing fiscal deficit exacerbated by high interest rates, which complicates maintaining economic stability [17][18][19]. - The trend of increasing debt in developed economies is counterproductive, as wealthier nations tend to experience slower economic growth [17][19]. - The reliance on external labor is critical for the U.S. economy, and cutting off this supply could lead to significant operational challenges [50][51][53]. Group 3: Dollar and Gold as Reserve Assets - The dollar is increasingly viewed as an unreliable store of value, with central banks diversifying their reserves into gold [29][25][26]. - The rise in gold prices reflects a growing skepticism about the dollar's reliability, particularly after geopolitical tensions [25][29]. Group 4: Policy Misalignment and Consequences - Current U.S. tariffs and trade policies are seen as detrimental, effectively acting as a consumption tax that disproportionately affects lower-income individuals [45][46]. - The use of tariffs lacks coherent logic and strategic thinking, leading to inefficient resource allocation [38][41][44]. - The potential benefits of artificial intelligence in boosting productivity are viewed skeptically, as they do not address immediate economic challenges [46][48].

" 我们过去赚到了超额收益，很大程度上得益于我们的耐心和不同视角 。 " " 对于价值投资者来说，有时候核心竞争力恰恰体现在耐心 ——不出手的耐心。 " 上周姜诚做了一场公开交流，是他的定期动作。 很喜欢听他的分享，因为不管短期还是长期，你翻看他的持仓、业绩以及历史言论，总是一致感很强。 今年姜诚业绩有点 "平平无奇"， 管理的几只产品 跑赢了大盘，只是 在 今年以来的市 场环境中 很不 打眼。 而翻看前十大重仓，基本没什么变化，仍然是一些看似不太与时俱进的传统公司，组合一半以上分布在 银行、化工、建筑、地产四大行业中，前三大 "爱股"中国建筑、太阳纸业、华鲁恒升一直拿的稳稳 的。 | 产品名称 | 基金经理 | 投资类型 | 任职日期 | 今年以来回报 | 任职回报 | 年化回报 | 合计规模(亿元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 中泰元和价值精选混合A | 姜诚 | 偏股混合型基金 | 2023/2/17 | 4.88% | 6.40% | 2.68% | 9.16 | | 中泰红利价值一年持有混合发起 | 姜诚、王桃 | 偏股 ...

点击阅读： 比我们想象还要震撼！"硅谷创投教父"霍夫曼深度剖析：当前的硅谷投资与科技趋势 在评论区回复你对本文有关的观点、想法，获得点赞数最多的三位读者将获此福利！ 本周有个重磅福利！ 2025年8月1日诺亚方舟将在新加坡举办"全球华人财富管理和传承峰会"，9点至17 点，量子基金创始人 吉姆·罗杰斯、"黑天鹅"之父、《反脆弱》作者纳西姆·尼古拉斯·塔勒布、新加坡国立大学李光耀公共政 策学院院长兼李嘉诚经济学教授柯成兴将先后登场分享。 我们帮聪友们争取了三张 价值2166元/位 的参会通行证 （不含交通、住宿、签证等相关费用），直通亲 临峰会现场。在新加坡或者届时正好在新加坡的聪友，这个机会不容错过。 本周 推荐阅读 and，其实阅读这篇文章本身就是最大福利，这是今年以来听过最有获得感的演讲之一，满满都是硅谷 科技的干货。强推！ 其他值得看 3、 对话中泰资管徐志敏：投资是一系列取舍的组合，我们经常会低估专注带来的价值 看完记得 点击视频右下角头像 ， 关注【聪明投资者视频号】 ，带你看投资智慧的浓缩精华。 转载开白， 请联系小编微信【fanxiaocom】，添加备注 "转载+新媒体名+姓名" ，按顺序邀请加 ...

6 月 18 日，橡树资本联合创始人霍华德 · 马克斯发布了最新备忘录《再谈放弃经济法则》，聚焦一个 近年在美国社会中频繁出现的趋势，即越来越多的政策都与基本的经济法则背道而行，往往出现荒唐的 局面。 霍华德列举了多个实例，包括对于房租价格的强行压低，以及加州火灾保险匪夷所思的症结点等等。 他反复强调，经济法则并不会因为我们不喜欢它们就失效，管控过度往往结果更糟。 在"解放日"关税带来的冲击过去两个月之后，这期备忘录对关税问题的讨论尤为集中。 霍华德认为，关税的本质，就是通过对外来商品加税，来保护本国工业免受冲击，而"政府无法不付代 价地要求所有东西都在本国制造"。 他直接写道： 最终结果是，消费者支付的价格比没有关税时高得多，而出口商品的国际竞争力反而下 降，因为本地厂商的成本太高，难以在全球市场中立足。 对于希望制造业回流美国的幻想主义，霍华德则引用了英国经济史学家尼尔 · 弗格森的话说， " 我们 无法回到 1950 年代，更别说 1910 年代。无论是社会结构还是经济结构，都已经无法逆转。" 霍华德还谈到美国民选官员是如何在实践中对经济法则视而不见的典型例子，在他看来，美国当前对赤 字、债务和社保体系 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformative impact of AI and robotics on the future of work and wealth distribution, emphasizing the need for investors to adapt to these changes and identify valuable investment opportunities in the AI sector [6][89]. Group 1: AI Trends and Investment Opportunities - The current AI wave is just beginning, with rapid growth and the emergence of thousands of new companies daily, although many may not survive beyond five years [8][13]. - Investment in AI is heavily concentrated in a few hot startups, with a stark divide in funding availability [3][24]. - The strategies of "open source" and "distillation" are reshaping the competitive landscape in AI, allowing smaller companies to innovate at lower costs [31][33]. - Investors should focus on small models and vertical AI that cater to specific industry needs, as these areas present significant growth potential [40][43]. Group 2: Evaluating AI Companies - Six key factors for assessing the investment value of AI companies include team quality, proprietary data, innovative business models, patent technology, network effects, and brand strength [36][39]. - Companies that can leverage proprietary data to create competitive advantages are more likely to attract investment [36][39]. Group 3: Robotics and AI Integration - The future direction of society is towards the integration of AI and robotics, with the potential for robots to perform traditional jobs at lower costs [81][89]. - As AI technology advances, the cost of humanoid robots may eventually match that of hiring human workers, leading to widespread adoption in various sectors [83][89]. - The development of AI agents capable of executing complex tasks will redefine job roles and the nature of work [48][50]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Challenges - The venture capital landscape has changed significantly, with a 60% reduction in funding compared to 2021, making it harder for new funds to raise capital [15][16]. - Many unicorn companies are experiencing valuation declines, and the exit timelines for investments are lengthening [16][17]. - Investors must be cautious of overvalued companies in the AI space, as not all will achieve the expected profitability [12][20]. Group 5: Future Implications - The article highlights the potential for AI to replace many traditional jobs, raising questions about the future of work and human identity [90][91]. - The ongoing advancements in AI and robotics will likely lead to a significant shift in wealth distribution, with those controlling these technologies gaining substantial economic power [6][89].

这是一篇，国内深度研究者、优秀投资人，研究、理解、学习"价值投资之父"格雷厄姆，天花板级别的文章 了。 2019年9月，聪明投资者邀请信璞投资归江做《证券分析》这本书的分享，亦是受湛庐文化所托。这本对于 绝大多数价值投资信徒都极其艰涩的教科版的书籍，我们想象不出还有第二人比归江更适合。 果然，现场的效果出人意料的好，上海中心朵云书院最大交流厅里很多人是站着听完两个多小时的。 2025年《证券分析》新版出版之际，归江在推荐序中写道： 格雷厄姆的《证券分析》为专业投资者立锚，《聪明投资者》为业余投资人解惑，《世界商品 和世界货币》《储备和稳定》为金融之稳定，百姓之安居乐业献策。 格翁极为推崇中国人发明的常平仓制度。他对平民百姓在天灾人祸面前的劫难和无奈，始终心 存悲悯。 通读格翁文章和人生，我所理解格雷厄姆及其门生所遵从的价值投资的精髓，可能是"来自平 民，服务大众"。相比于价值投资之术，致良知之道才是该书历久弥新的光芒所在。 归江从事投资20多年， 名起于任职 公募基金时期管理社保组合业绩优异。极低调 ，但业内认可度一直非常 高。 他创办的信璞投资则将价值投资做到极致，团队做大量公司历史研究和资料梳理，时间和心 ...

以下文章来源于IN咖 ，作者热爱学习的 IN咖 . 多视角关注优秀投资人和企业家 "想获得超额收益，绝不可能靠做那些显而易见的事。" 霍华德·马克斯上周接受The Motley Fool联合创始人及分析师团队直播对谈，交流了50多分钟。 提问者没有将问题聚焦在宏观经济以及政策的评价中，而是回到霍华德·马克斯的舒适区域，关于投资 的本质和常识。 霍华德坦言，真正重要的，永远是两件事： 你有没有买入能持续增长的公司？你借的钱，是不是借给 了能还的人？ 这番话，对今天的我们尤其有参考价值。当"创新药""潮玩""AI"等概念在不同市场反复掀起热潮时， 我们是否真正理解了自己在买什么、为什么买？ 尤其在港股这样估值极低、但不确定性极高的市场中，更需要分清：哪些是"被错杀"，哪些是"看上去 便宜但其实很贵"。 霍华德强调，真正出色的投资人，往往是那些"情绪冷静、不被新闻带节奏"的人。 他也引用了一句幸运饼干里的话："谨慎的人很少出错，但也写不出伟大的诗。"幽默之余，道理朴实深 刻。 参与提问的三位主持轮番上阵，从投资者心理误区、反人性行为机制，到团队选人标准、长期收益来 源……层层递进，霍华德也很耐心，娓娓道来。 他反反 ...