"4000"是今年一个很神奇的数字。 虽然比金价突破 4000美元/盎司晚了一点，上证指数也在前段时间站上了4000点，然后大家一起 在"4000"上下徘徊。 这样极致又震荡的市场环境，对持有人来说，钱包稳不住，心态就更稳不住了，很想找人说说话 …… 在本次《深夜食堂》的系列节目中，我们就遇到了一位 "高精度"输出的基金经理——国泰基金张容赫。 一方面可能因为他 自带幽默与好口才；另一方面，可能是因为他在投资中 "既要、又要、还要"的性格，看 得多、想得多。 他既要通过限制仓位、回撤、投资风格，构建一个客户持有体感不错的组合，又要重视各类持有人的差异化 诉求，还要兼顾排名目标。 因此在面对每个问题时，他一定是先理逻辑，再谈结论，甚至有时更多的是观察，而没有结论。 这与他的投资决策也很相似，先把边界画清楚，再在框架内追求 "能打的组合"。 在张容赫看来， "组合管理就是一个多约束下的结构优化问题"。 为了更清晰地白描这位难以一言概之的基金经理，在本期深夜食堂录制前， 我们与 张容赫 做了 一次 深入 访谈 。 （点此查看 《走近张容赫，更理解了"稳"是一种被低估的能力》 ） 此外，张容赫尤其重视持有人体验， " ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance and strategies of various "fixed income +" fund managers at GF Fund, highlighting their unique investment styles and the overall growth of the "fixed income +" fund sector amid a fluctuating market environment [2][3][41]. Group 1: Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index has entered a phase of fluctuation after surpassing 4000 points, driven by the technology market [2]. - Interest rates have been declining throughout the year, with new household deposits in August decreasing by 600 billion yuan compared to the same period last year [3]. Group 2: Fund Performance - Over 94% of "fixed income +" funds have achieved positive returns this year, with the total market size exceeding 2.7 trillion yuan, a 26% increase from the previous quarter [3]. - GF Fund has 50 "fixed income +" products reaching new net asset value highs, with seven products showing a net value growth rate exceeding 10% this year, ranking in the top ten among over 100 fund companies [3][4]. Group 3: Fund Manager Profiles - Zhang Qian, with 24 years of experience, manages eight funds, achieving a total return of 187.26% since taking over the GF Ju Xin fund in July 2013, with an annualized return of 8.95% [5][6]. - Zeng Gang, another experienced manager, focuses on balanced and flexible asset allocation, achieving a 10% return in the GF Ji Yu fund this year [12][13]. - Zhang Xue emphasizes macro analysis and asset timing, managing five funds with a focus on high-growth sectors like gold and Hong Kong stocks [20][24]. - Liu Zhi Hui, with 13 years of experience, has maintained positive returns in the GF Ji Yuan fund since its inception, with a total return of 48.70% [27][28]. - Yao Qiu prioritizes safety and valuation, managing six funds with a focus on stable returns and risk control [31][35]. - Wu Di employs quantitative strategies in managing three "fixed income +" products, focusing on credit and interest rate bonds [36][38]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - The "fixed income +" products at GF Fund feature a diverse range of strategies, including low-risk options, stable income through bonds, and aggressive strategies using stocks and convertible bonds [4][5]. - Fund managers utilize a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods to optimize asset allocation and enhance returns, adapting to market conditions [39][42]. - The investment framework at GF Fund is supported by a robust research team and a collaborative environment, allowing fund managers to leverage shared insights and strategies [41][43].

Core Viewpoint - The current market situation is seen as a short-term outcome rather than a starting or ending point, with a long-term bullish trend expected for the Chinese market driven by the country's comprehensive strength and economic transformation [2][96]. Group 1: Market Trends and Dynamics - The AI wave is just beginning, with similarities to the 1990s internet boom, but the current context is shaped by the US-China rivalry [2][51]. - The transition from old to new economic drivers is not fully reflected in economic data yet, but capital markets are showing a trend where new drivers are outperforming old ones [2][53]. - A new consumption wave centered on service consumption has started, indicating a stable total market with active new consumption [2][56]. Group 2: Investment Strategies and Recommendations - Investors should exercise patience and avoid chasing overheated segments, focusing instead on long-term fundamentals [4][110]. - The current market fluctuations are seen as a necessary phase that can lead to new opportunities, especially after the market digests existing divergences [14][16]. - The focus should be on identifying companies that can stand out in their respective industries rather than fixating on index levels [110]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The AI industry is expected to see significant growth, with hardware and applications being key areas of investment, particularly in intelligent terminals and AI-related services [43][49]. - Traditional sectors are also expected to experience a recovery, driven by improved competition and potential mergers and acquisitions [70][76]. - The "反内卷" (anti-involution) trend is likely to catalyze improvements in traditional industries, with sectors like chemicals and new energy showing promise [71][75]. Group 4: Geopolitical and Economic Context - The US-China relationship is anticipated to enter a relatively stable phase leading up to the US midterm elections, which may positively impact capital markets [82][84]. - Geopolitical tensions, while a source of short-term volatility, are not expected to derail the long-term bullish trend of the Chinese market [24][96]. - The market is likely to see a shift in foreign investment dynamics, with external capital returning as confidence in Chinese assets improves [87][88].

上周，是全球市场都在屏息关注的时间点。 而就在 10 月 28 日，毕盛投资（ APS ）三十周年庆典论坛上，一场主题为 《修昔底德之争——终场与新 局》 的巅峰对话，提供了另一个观察视角。 对谈双方是毕盛投资创始人王国辉，一位拥有 44 年亚洲股票投资经验、 27 年中国市场经验的投资老将； 以及新加坡外交学者马凯硕，他所著的《中国的选择》是许多专业投资人理解中美竞合的重要参考读物。 这是一场发生在特殊时点的对话，亦是一种更长期、跨视角的观察方式。《聪明投资者》将这场精彩交流的 部分内容整理分享，作为理解当下投资大背景的一个切面。 两位都不是中国人，却是中国发展的坚定乐观派。 "修昔底德陷阱"这一概念最早由哈佛教授格雷厄姆·艾利森提出，用以描述新兴大国与守成大国之间的结构 性冲突。 在 2019 年，王国辉就曾撰写《修昔底德熊市》备忘录，提出中美演化的四种情景。五年后的今天，这场对 话显得更为现实，也更具启发性。 王国辉从投资视角指出，美国在贸易、科技、金融等多维度的遏制已逐步显露疲态，而中国的结构性优势， 包括稀土、工程教育、供应链能力等，正在被市场重新定价。 马凯硕则从地缘格局的角度出发，强调美国"端到 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent phenomenon of "big players closing funds" in China's investment circle reflects a complex market sentiment, highlighting the need for investors to reassess risk, evaluate opportunities, and maintain rationality in uncertain times [2][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - On October 29, Ningquan Asset announced a suspension of new subscriptions for its products, followed by Ruiyuan Fund's similar announcement two days later, indicating a trend among prominent fund managers to exercise restraint [2]. - This trend has sparked speculation regarding its implications for market liquidity and valuation levels, as well as the managers' self-awareness regarding their strategies and cognitive boundaries [3]. Group 2: Decision-Making Framework - Howard Marks, co-founder of Oaktree Capital, emphasizes the importance of understanding one's own risk tolerance and willingness, categorizing investors into four types based on their financial capacity and risk appetite [5][6]. - Rational investors align their risk exposure with their circumstances, focusing on achieving their own goals rather than merely outperforming peers [8][9]. Group 3: Investment Objectives - The board members of the pension fund prioritize fulfilling pension payment commitments over short-term performance rankings, demonstrating a long-term focus on stability rather than relative performance [6][44]. - Marks argues that true success in investment is not about outperforming others but ensuring the ability to meet obligations, particularly in the context of pension funds [46][50]. Group 4: Risk Assessment - The discussion highlights that risk should not be equated with price volatility but rather with the probability of permanent loss, urging investors to differentiate between the two [8][60]. - The board's preference for normal market fluctuations over reliance on opaque strategies for excess returns indicates a mature understanding of risk management [38][41]. Group 5: Performance Evaluation - The pension fund board values achieving actuarial return assumptions as the primary performance metric, with relative performance against peers considered secondary [78][80]. - The importance of a comprehensive evaluation period that includes both favorable and unfavorable market conditions is emphasized, as it allows for a clearer assessment of investment capabilities [101][102].

Core Insights - The article highlights a video live event featuring prominent investment figures discussing the current investment landscape in China, emphasizing optimism despite external challenges [1][2]. Group 1: Event Overview - The event includes a welcome speech followed by a peak dialogue with Wang Guohui, founder of Bissonnette Investment, who has extensive experience in Asian and Chinese stock investments [1]. - The discussion will also feature Ma Kaishuo, an Indian diplomat and scholar, focusing on the academic theme of "Thucydides' Trap - The Endgame and New Order," providing insights into the broader investment context in China [1]. Group 2: Additional Content - The article mentions a roundtable discussion led by Wang Kangning, Chief Investment Officer of Bissonnette Investment, on the topic of "The Genesis and Revival of Chinese-style Innovation" [2]. - Other recommended readings include insights from notable investors and discussions on various investment strategies and market trends [4].

Core Viewpoint - Greenlight Capital's founder David Einhorn acknowledges the transformative potential of AI but expresses concerns about the underlying financials and sustainability of the current tech hype, emphasizing that profits are the true measure of valuation when the narrative fades [5][6][19]. AI Investment Analysis - Einhorn critiques the financial viability of the "Big Seven" tech companies (Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta, and Tesla), highlighting their significant capital expenditure needs and the limited growth potential in advertising and subscription markets [6][10][11]. - The projected capital expenditures for AI are staggering, with estimates suggesting that by 2030, global spending on data centers will reach $6.7 trillion, primarily for AI capabilities [10][11]. - Despite the hype, the current free cash flow generated by these companies is insufficient to cover their future AI investments, leading to potential reliance on debt financing [10][11][12]. Market Performance - In Q3 2025, Greenlight Capital reported a net return of -3.6%, underperforming the S&P 500, which rose by 8.1% during the same period [9][38]. - The fund's macro strategy contributed positively, while short positions significantly detracted from overall performance [38]. Investment Strategy - Einhorn maintains a bullish stance on gold as a hedge against high fiscal deficits and declining trust in fiat currencies, viewing it as a crucial asset in the current economic climate [7]. - A notable new position is in PG&E, a California utility company, which was undervalued following the wildfires, with Einhorn betting on state support for disaster management reforms [8][42]. Individual Stock Performance - The fund's long positions faced challenges, with Kyndryl Holdings dropping 28% and Lanxess declining 16%, while the macro environment remains uncertain for real estate investments [41][42]. - The decision to exit Teck Resources was made after achieving a 52% net internal rate of return, reflecting a strategic shift in response to market conditions [45]. Conclusion on AI and Investment Risks - Einhorn warns that the current AI investment landscape is fraught with risks, as many companies are overvalued and the true financial returns remain uncertain [19][32][34]. - The narrative surrounding AI may lead to significant capital destruction if the anticipated returns do not materialize, echoing past market bubbles [32][34].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant changes in the investment strategy of the Ruiyuan Growth Value Fund managed by Fu Pengbo, highlighting the reduction in holdings of certain stocks and the focus on sectors like technology and innovation-driven companies. Group 1: Stock Performance and Adjustments - Shenghong Technology's stock price has increased over six times this year, contributing significantly to Fu Pengbo's performance [2] - However, the latest quarterly report reveals that Fu Pengbo has reduced his holdings in Shenghong Technology by nearly 50% [3] - As of October 20, Fu Pengbo's fund participated in a private placement of Shenghong Technology, acquiring 806,400 shares at a total cost of 200 million yuan, representing 0.95% of the fund's net asset value [4] Group 2: Portfolio Composition Changes - New entrants to the top ten holdings of Ruiyuan Growth Value include Alibaba and Dongshan Precision, while Sanuo Biology and Maiwei Shares have exited [5] - Fu Pengbo's portfolio is now heavily weighted towards sectors such as internet technology, optical modules, PCB, chips, and innovative pharmaceuticals [5][7] - The top ten holdings' concentration has reached a historical high of 66.03%, driven by significant price increases in key stocks [15] Group 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The technology sector has been a major investment theme this year, with the semiconductor and consumer electronics industries showing strong performance [10][9] - Fu Pengbo emphasizes the importance of selecting companies with core competitive advantages and strong governance, focusing on those likely to experience high growth due to favorable industry conditions [7][41] - The article notes that the current market environment has led to high valuations across many sectors, prompting a shift towards more selective stock picking based on fundamentals [27][30] Group 4: Specific Stock Insights - Shenghong Technology, a leader in the PCB industry, reported a revenue of 9.031 billion yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 86%, with net profit soaring by 366.89% [19] - Dongshan Precision, another PCB leader, has also seen significant increases in its stock price, with a P/E ratio of 109.02, indicating it is at a historical high [23] - Newisheng, focusing on optical modules, reported a revenue of 10.437 billion yuan, up 282.64%, and a net profit increase of 355.68% [26]

Core Insights - Tracy Britt Cool, a notable figure in Berkshire Hathaway, has been recognized by Warren Buffett for her problem-solving abilities and leadership skills [2][4] - After a decade at Berkshire, she founded Kanbrick, focusing on long-term investment and operational improvement in mid-sized companies, diverging from traditional private equity models [5][6] Group 1: Background and Career - Tracy Britt Cool joined Berkshire Hathaway in 2009 at the age of 25, after sending a self-recommendation letter to Buffett, which included produce from her family's farm [3] - During her tenure, she held various leadership roles, including CEO of Pampered Chef and Chairman of Benjamin Moore, where she was tasked with revitalizing struggling businesses [4] Group 2: Kanbrick and Investment Philosophy - Kanbrick, co-founded by Cool, emphasizes a partnership approach to long-term ownership, focusing on building systems, culture, and teams rather than a buy-fix-sell strategy [5][6] - Cool's approach is characterized by a focus on culture over capital, asserting that the health of a company's culture and the right people in the right positions are crucial for long-term success [7] Group 3: Operational Insights and Methodology - Cool highlights the importance of practical skills and daily operations, stating that long-termism is about structural capability rather than just a mindset [8] - She draws on Buffett's principles, advocating for integrity, passion, and continuous learning as essential traits for successful leadership and investment [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges of maintaining stability in investment amidst market volatility and emotional pressures, emphasizing that achieving "stability" is a complex and ongoing process rather than a one-time achievement [3][19]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The A-share market is experiencing fluctuations within the 3800-3900 point range, causing stress for investors as they navigate daily ups and downs [3]. - The article highlights the emotional turmoil investors face, with the need for stability becoming increasingly difficult in a volatile market environment [3][19]. Group 2: Investor Experiences - One investor shares their struggle with maintaining a steady investment approach while feeling pressured by peers who achieve higher returns through riskier investments, such as AI stocks [4][5]. - Another investor reflects on the overwhelming amount of information available, leading to excessive trading and ultimately lower returns compared to a more passive investment strategy [9]. - A different perspective reveals that what was perceived as stability in investment was actually a form of laziness, as the investor failed to adapt to changing market conditions and industry dynamics [11][13]. Group 3: Emotional and Psychological Factors - The article emphasizes that the desire to outperform others can lead to poor investment decisions and emotional distress, highlighting the importance of focusing on personal investment goals rather than comparisons with others [15][17]. - It suggests that true stability requires continuous learning and adaptation, rather than a static approach to investing [14][19]. Group 4: Conclusion and Future Insights - The article concludes by inviting readers to explore the concept of stability in investment further, with insights from a fund manager who emphasizes the importance of a disciplined approach and understanding human behavior in achieving stability [19][20].