Group 1 - The core logic of technology investment is based on "first principles," emphasizing that the performance of AI systems is determined by the shortest supply chain segments rather than the most powerful components [2] - The investment strategy focuses on identifying bottleneck segments in the supply chain, particularly in storage, as demand for storage is expected to grow significantly due to the increasing size of AI models and their requirements [4][12] - The investment approach is characterized by a shift from macro capacity considerations to micro-level KPIs and contract details, highlighting the importance of operational efficiency and management practices in the supply chain [5][6] Group 2 - The storage sector is identified as a critical bottleneck in the AI supply chain, with demand growth outpacing that of GPUs, driven by the evolution of multi-modal models and increased data throughput [8][11] - The supply constraints in the storage market are attributed to high capital expenditure requirements and technological barriers, making it difficult for new capacity to meet the surging demand [14][16] - The expected structural changes in the storage market indicate that by 2026, over half of storage procurement will come from AI data centers, with a significant shift towards customized and long-term contracts [15][16] Group 3 - The investment philosophy emphasizes the importance of understanding industry dynamics and avoiding speculative behaviors based on price movements, advocating for a focus on fundamental industry truths [7][12] - The narrative economy is highlighted as a significant factor influencing asset pricing, where trends and narratives can drive valuations faster than actual earnings growth [27][28] - The competitive landscape in the AI sector is evolving, with companies like Google and Nvidia driving demand for optical devices and storage, indicating a shift in value distribution within the supply chain [23][29]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding risk, market cycles, and investor psychology in making investment decisions, highlighting that successful investing is not just about buying good assets but buying them at the right price [5][25][39]. Group 1: Understanding Risk - Risk is defined not as price volatility but as the probability of negative outcomes, emphasizing that true risk lies in uncertainty rather than price fluctuations [7][29][67]. - The experience of significant losses in the past has led to a strong aversion to risk, reinforcing the idea that investment success is more about the price paid than the quality of the asset [23][25]. - Investors should be cautious of relying solely on mathematical indicators to assess risk, as they may not capture the true nature of potential losses [8][26]. Group 2: Market Environment and Interest Rates - The long-term decline in interest rates over the past 40 years has significantly influenced asset valuations, making investments appear more attractive as borrowing costs decrease [42][44]. - Lower interest rates create a "double dividend" for investors using leverage, as both asset values increase and borrowing costs decrease, leading to inflated returns that may not reflect true investment acumen [46][49]. - The current market environment is characterized by high valuations, suggesting a need for a cautious and rational investment approach rather than an overly optimistic one [85][86]. Group 3: Investor Psychology and Market Cycles - Market prices often deviate significantly from intrinsic values due to investor sentiment, which swings between extreme optimism and pessimism [75][78]. - The article discusses the importance of recognizing when market sentiment is overly optimistic, as seen in the rapid price increases following a period of extreme pessimism in 2022 [82][84]. - A rational investment strategy involves understanding the relationship between price and intrinsic value, and making decisions based on market psychology rather than following the crowd [77][79].

Core Viewpoint - Long-term investors must adhere to disciplined strategies and rules to navigate the current volatile global landscape, as emphasized by Nicolai Tangen, CEO of Norway's sovereign wealth fund, which manages over $1.9 trillion in assets [2][3]. Investment Strategy - The fund maintains a 70% allocation in equities and 30% in bonds, with some investments in real estate and renewable energy [3][18]. - The fund employs a pre-set mechanism for automatic rebalancing during market volatility, selling bonds and buying stocks, which has contributed to a compound annual return of 6%-7% over the past 30 years [2][20][38]. AI and Technology - Tangen highlights the importance of AI in amplifying inequality, with countries and companies that embrace AI rapidly distancing themselves from those that do not [3][42]. - Within the fund, 100% of employees use large model tools, and 65% are involved in code enhancement, indicating that technology is now central to the organization [3][50]. Asset Management Philosophy - Asset management is viewed as an apprenticeship industry, where gaining experience and credibility is crucial before managing funds independently [4][14]. - The fund's investment philosophy is close to index-based, with strategic adjustments made by specialized teams across various sectors [22][23]. Climate and Ethical Considerations - The fund advocates for clear "net-zero" pathways from companies and engages in constructive dialogue rather than aggressive activism [28][29]. - Climate risk is considered a financial risk, with the fund recognizing its systemic implications on investments and the broader economy [26][27]. Geopolitical Awareness - Tangen notes the importance of diversification and a long-term perspective in response to geopolitical changes, emphasizing that tactical adjustments based on political events are often unreliable [36][37]. - The fund does not adjust its investment strategy based on geopolitical shifts but focuses on the fundamentals of the companies it invests in [39][40]. Future of Work and AI - AI is expected to replace many white-collar jobs, enhancing efficiency in sectors like accounting and law, and will significantly impact asset management by reducing trading costs and improving analysis [55]. - The emergence of humanoid robots is anticipated in the near future, which will take over mundane tasks, further changing the nature of work [53].

本周 推荐阅读 本周放了一篇聪投在2025年做的一场私募人物深度访谈。非常喜欢的一个女性基金经理——毕盛投资 张清。私募当中跟她资历差不多的女性基金经理，大约就是景林资产的蒋彤。 入行快30年，无比热爱投资。交流过程就是满满的感染力。 点击阅读： 要站在变化的一边！70岁"木头姐"兴奋盘点2026大机会：现在就是黄金时间 其他值得看 1、 持续把简单的事做对！"超级投资者"沃尔特·施洛斯的一生 但她基本没有对外曝光过，而且管理全球头部主权基金的账户，所以可以谈的空间很多，但能放出来的 内容很有限。 我们还是尽可能把重点原汁原味发出来，是mark，也是持续跟踪的起点。 点击阅读： 对话毕盛张清：管理全球头部主权基金账户是一种什么体验 同样是女性投资管理人的"木头姐"，她的观点常常因为过于星辰大海和乐观，比较有争议。 就像"木头姐"自己说的，ARK的研究更加偏投行和一级市场的视角，那些产业端早期的创意和思想在二 级市场的角度听来是有点距离的。 当我们看到一个70岁的投资人，仍然以几乎"创业者般的热情"去追踪、研究、并试图理解最前沿的科技 趋势……她的很多判断未必都被市场认同，但她对"变化正在发生"的敏感，以及把资 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that AI is still in its early stages and has a long way to go, despite the current hype cycle surrounding it [5][6] - The capital expenditure in the technology and telecommunications sectors is approaching the highs seen during the last bubble, but unlike the past, GPUs are in high demand and being actively consumed [6][7] - The current investment cycle is likened to historical infrastructure waves, with potential capital expenditure reaching 12% of GDP, driven by productivity improvements [8][9] Group 1: AI Infrastructure and Market Dynamics - AI infrastructure spending has increased 2.5 times since the emergence of ChatGPT, with projections suggesting it could reach $1.4 trillion annually by 2030 [12][13] - The software market is expected to grow significantly, with potential growth rates of 19% in bear markets and up to 54% in bull markets, compared to the historical average of 14% [13][14] - The article suggests that many successful software companies are not yet publicly listed, indicating a potential for significant growth in the private market [14] Group 2: Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Trends - Bitcoin is expected to become a significant store of value, especially in the context of a generational wealth transfer over the next 5 to 15 years [20] - The total market for stablecoins has surpassed $300 billion, indicating a shift in how cryptocurrencies are utilized in financial systems [20] - The article posits that Bitcoin's supply growth rate is lower than that of gold, positioning it as both a risk asset and a hedge against inflation [18][19] Group 3: Technological Innovations and Their Impact - The integration of biotechnology and AI is expected to revolutionize healthcare, significantly reducing drug development costs from $2.4 billion to approximately $700 million over the next four years [24][25] - The emergence of reusable rockets and space data centers is creating new industries and job opportunities, highlighting the dual development of new worlds in space and digital realms [27][28] - The article discusses the potential of autonomous vehicles and logistics automation to drastically reduce delivery costs, with projections indicating a 90% reduction in delivery expenses through drone technology [34][35] Group 4: Entrepreneurial Opportunities and Market Changes - The current environment is seen as a prime opportunity for entrepreneurship, with AI tools enabling individuals to identify unmet market needs and develop solutions [21][22] - The article highlights the importance of being on the right side of technological changes, suggesting that traditional industries may consolidate into a few dominant players [16][17] - The overall sentiment is that innovation is accelerating, and the barriers to entry for new companies are decreasing, fostering a vibrant entrepreneurial landscape [39][40]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the investment philosophy and strategies of Zhang Qing, a prominent female fund manager with nearly 20 years of experience, emphasizing her focus on fundamental analysis and long-term value creation in investment decisions [2][3][4]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - Zhang Qing's investment approach is characterized by a deep understanding of business models and a focus on long-term value, aiming to calculate risks and potential returns meticulously [6][8]. - She emphasizes the importance of "growth alpha" and prefers to make contrarian investments when mispricing occurs in the market [8][27]. - The investment philosophy is rooted in a rigorous fundamental analysis framework, which has been effective over time and across market cycles [3][10]. Group 2: Experience and Background - Zhang Qing began her career in 1996 with a focus on fundamental analysis and was one of the earliest CFA charterholders in China [4][10]. - Her experience includes managing sovereign wealth fund accounts, making her one of the longest-serving female fund managers in this domain [3][21]. - The investment team at her firm has a strong emphasis on continuous learning and adapting to market changes, which has contributed to their long-term success [81][82]. Group 3: Market Insights and Trends - The article discusses the current market environment, highlighting the challenges and opportunities in sectors such as insurance and innovative pharmaceuticals [44][50]. - Zhang Qing notes that the insurance sector is currently undervalued due to market pessimism, but long-term fundamentals remain strong [45][49]. - In the innovative drug sector, there is a focus on companies with solid cash positions and promising clinical data, indicating a potential for significant returns as the market adjusts its expectations [50][51]. Group 4: Strategic Focus Areas - The investment strategy for 2026 is centered around two main themes: the growth driven by AI and new productive forces, and the continued opportunity in value stocks, particularly in the insurance sector [62][63]. - The firm is also exploring opportunities in sectors like semiconductors and renewable energy, which are expected to benefit from structural changes in the economy [58][60]. - Zhang Qing emphasizes the importance of understanding macroeconomic trends and government policies in shaping investment decisions [77][78].

沃尔特 ·施洛斯是美国最杰出的价值投资者之一，他被同门师兄、好友沃伦·巴菲特称为"超级投资者"。 1934年，施洛斯在华尔街找到了第一份工作——跑单员。他曾师从价值投资开山鼻祖本杰明·格雷厄姆， 1946年开始为老师工作，直到1955年自立门户，成立沃尔特 J· 施洛斯合伙人公司 。 巴菲特曾这样评价他："沃尔特知道如何识别那些售价远低于其价值的证券，这就是他所做的一切。他持有 的股票数量比我多得多，而且对企业的内在本质远没有我感兴趣。 我似乎对沃尔特没什么影响力，这正是 他的优点之一。 " 沃尔特 ·施洛斯说， "我们就是买便宜的股票，没别的。" "好生意我们也喜欢，不过我们不愿意花那么多钱买。问题是这个'好'究竟有多好呢？我可能会出错。干这行 能学会什么是谦卑，因为自己犯过错。" 在自己合伙公司的投资生涯中，施洛斯基本保持满仓运作，一般持股在 60-100只左右。他只关注买入超值 的股票，不太在意股市怎么走。 施洛斯终其一生的各种低调，生平细节并不多，感谢 J ason（微信公众号"标记X"）挖掘了这个宝藏资料。 The Memoirs of Walter J. Schloss: A Personal a ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of diversification in investment strategies, highlighting that a well-diversified portfolio can mitigate risks and enhance returns over time [2][4][11]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - The use of hedging techniques allows investors to maintain patience with undervalued stocks and reduce psychological fears in the market [3]. - Diversification is presented as a key strategy to avoid the pitfalls of concentrated investments, which can lead to significant losses if the selected stocks underperform [4][5]. - The article cites the example of investors who lost money by concentrating their investments in failing companies, underscoring the need for a diversified approach [5]. Group 2: Performance of FOF Products - As of January 23, 2026, the total net asset value of E Fund's FOF products reached 211.11 billion [5]. - All 62 FOF products under E Fund achieved positive returns by the end of 2025 [6]. - In 2025, seven out of the top ten performing public FOFs were from E Fund's "Advantage" series, indicating strong performance in a competitive market [7][8]. Group 3: Manager Insights - Zhang Haoran, a key fund manager at E Fund, emphasizes a deep understanding of underlying asset logic and focuses on macroeconomic, policy, and fundamental analyses to guide investment decisions [18][20]. - The investment strategy involves a core-satellite approach, balancing stable core positions with more flexible satellite investments to adapt to market changes [22][26]. - Zhang Haoran's management style prioritizes low turnover and effective risk diversification through a selection of fund managers with proven track records [19][20]. Group 4: Market Trends and Adjustments - The article notes that in 2024, 75% of E Fund's FOF products that had been established for over a year maintained positive returns, reflecting resilience in a recovering market [9]. - In 2023, only 55 FOF products across the market achieved positive returns, with E Fund being one of the top performers [9]. - The launch of the "Ruyi" series in 2025 saw significant fundraising success, with one fund raising over 58 billion, marking it as the largest new fund in the fourth quarter [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the increasing popularity of multi-asset allocation strategies, particularly in the context of low volatility investments, as investors seek higher premiums for lower volatility assets amid market fluctuations [2]. Group 1: FOF Market Trends - 2025 is projected to be the "FOF Year," with issuance volumes nearing 2021 highs after three years of decline, particularly in Q4 with 42 new products and a fundraising scale of 45.2 billion [4]. - Among the new FOF products, 12 directly include "multi-asset allocation" in their names, indicating a significant trend towards diversified investment strategies [4]. - Low-volatility FOFs have shown outstanding performance, with bond-type FOFs and fixed-income + FOFs leading in issuance scale [4][5]. Group 2: Investment Strategy and Market Context - The launch of the "Fuguo Hengxin 3-Month Holding Period Mixed (ETF-FOF)" reflects a strategic response to the low-interest-rate environment, targeting low volatility through a diversified asset allocation [6][8]. - The article highlights that 50 trillion in fixed deposits are set to mature this year, alongside a structural interest rate cut by the central bank, indicating a shift towards a low-interest-rate era [7]. - Multi-asset allocation is presented as a solution for investors seeking stability and risk management in a low-yield environment, as single assets struggle to hedge against various risks [8][9]. Group 3: Performance Metrics and Investment Strategies - The performance benchmark for the "Fuguo Hengxin 3-Month Holding Period Mixed (ETF-FOF)" includes a mix of indices, with 50% allocated to the China Bond Composite Index, ensuring a clear and reasonable performance target [12][14]. - The strategy involves using bonds for stability while enhancing returns through A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and gold, aiming for a high cost-performance ratio [15][16]. - The investment approach includes duration timing for bonds, sector rotation for A-shares, and Smart Beta strategies for Hong Kong stocks, optimizing risk contributions across the portfolio [20]. Group 4: ETF-FOF Product Advantages - The "Fuguo Hengxin 3-Month Holding Period Mixed (ETF-FOF)" utilizes ETFs to provide a one-stop investment solution, characterized by lower fees, higher efficiency, and better risk diversification compared to traditional FOFs [23]. - The product is managed by an experienced team with a strong background in FOF management and ETF investment, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [24][30]. - The article notes that Fuguo's extensive ETF offerings and collaborative team structure contribute to the product's robust investment strategy [29].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that the U.S. midterm elections are a critical variable affecting global dynamics, particularly in relation to monetary policy and economic confidence [2][10][13] - The U.S. dollar is expected to weaken overall, but the rate of depreciation will slow compared to 2025 [23][31] - The current AI wave in the U.S. is compared to significant historical initiatives, indicating its potential impact on the economy and stock market [33][37] Group 2 - China's economic challenges from old growth drivers are diminishing, but structural issues remain, necessitating a focus on structural opportunities [42][50] - The real estate market is highlighted as a key area of concern, with the potential for stabilization and recovery in property values [44][48] - Investment opportunities in China are expected to arise from government guidance on wealth allocation, particularly in emerging sectors outlined in the 15th Five-Year Plan [50][52] Group 3 - The focus for investment in 2026 should be on stability rather than speculation, with an emphasis on company value rather than market hype [4][60] - The return of foreign capital, particularly through passive ETFs and active management funds, indicates a positive shift in investment sentiment towards China [61][63] - The restructuring of supply chains and industries presents new opportunities, especially in less prominent sectors like steel and chemicals [56][58]