笔者在上一次的评论中指出，预计于2028年1月举行的台湾大选，无论结果如何都将是两岸关系 发展进程中的关键转折点。那么，为了应对这次大选可能的结果，两岸各方都在做哪些准备呢？ 试分析如下： 对于以赖清德为首的岛内"台独"势力高层而言，预计他们这两年反复筹备和演练的，一个是防"斩 首"，一个是备逃生。 美国特朗普政府强行控制委内瑞拉总统马杜罗一事，对岛内"台独"势力产生了强烈的冲击。岛内 蓝营高层、蓝营媒体一直在密集讨论此事，并反复分析、揣测大陆会不会效仿美国。1月12日的台 湾《联合报》以社论的方式，指出"大陆在内蒙古朱日和基地的复制'总统府'，也和（美国）三角 洲部队对马杜罗安全屋的演练如出一辙，任谁都无法对共军图谋掉以轻心"。反观绿营高层和绿营 媒体，对此事鲜少提及与评论，但是，此事对绿营高层及赖清德本人造成的冲击和震撼，一定是远 远高于蓝营的。因此，台湾的防卫部门、警卫部门大概率会安排一些针对性的训练和演练，届时台 湾媒体或许会透露一些信息。 至于"台独"高层的逃生通道，笔者在之前的评论中已经分析过，无非"一南一北"两条路线，往南 逃往菲律宾，往北逃往日本。北逃的路线已经开始筹备，南逃的路线还处在设想（ ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate industry is transitioning from a phase of large-scale expansion to a new stage focused on optimizing existing assets, enhancing property services, and developing the rental market, indicating significant future growth potential [1][17]. Group 1: Historical Context and Current Trends - The real estate sector in China has undergone profound adjustments over the past five years, moving from a high-leverage, high-turnover development model to a more sustainable approach [2]. - From 2000 to 2013, the average annual growth rate of real estate development investment was 24%, making it a pillar of China's economic development and creating over 70 million jobs [2]. - The proportion of real estate investment in GDP has decreased from 14.9% in 2014 to an expected 6.67% by Q3 2025, with a negative average growth rate of -10% from 2022 to 2024 [2][3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The current real estate market in China has shifted from a state of housing shortage to a balance, with a focus on quality rather than quantity [8]. - The development model for real estate companies is evolving from a manufacturing-like approach to an integrated model of product, service, and operation [8]. - The potential for commercial real estate is significant, with the expectation that its contribution to the real estate sector could rise, generating an annual industry volume of 423 billion yuan (approximately 60.4 billion USD) if its share increases to 5% [10]. Group 3: Financial Instruments and Policy Support - The expansion of REITs in China is underway, with 78 publicly listed infrastructure REITs and a total issuance scale of approximately 220 billion yuan, covering various asset classes [15]. - The development of real estate finance, particularly through REITs, is crucial for creating a healthy cycle of investment and management in commercial real estate [15]. - The central economic work conference in 2025 emphasized stabilizing the real estate market and implementing policies to promote healthy and stable industry development [17].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by input method applications in the era of AI, highlighting user frustrations with accuracy and excessive advertisements, despite significant investments from major tech companies in enhancing these tools [2][4][14]. Group 1: User Experience Issues - Users are increasingly dissatisfied with input methods, reporting issues such as inaccurate word predictions and excessive advertisements, which detract from the overall user experience [2][4]. - A specific case is mentioned where a long-time user of Sogou Input Method uninstalled the app due to frequent incorrect suggestions, indicating a decline in basic functionality despite advanced AI features [4]. - Complaints about the voice recognition capabilities of input methods have also surfaced, with users noting that corrections often take longer than typing the text directly [4]. Group 2: AI Integration and Competition - Major input method providers, including Sogou, Baidu, and iFlytek, are engaged in a competitive race to integrate advanced AI capabilities into their products, aiming to enhance user experience and functionality [2][8][9]. - The input method market is characterized by a concentrated structure, with leading companies holding a combined market share of 84.4% as of July 2025, indicating a competitive landscape [8]. - Input methods are evolving from simple typing tools to becoming the primary interface for AI interactions, with companies aiming to position their products as essential gateways to AI capabilities [9][10]. Group 3: Commercialization and Privacy Concerns - Input methods face challenges in monetization, struggling with a "high traffic, low value" dilemma, which complicates their ability to generate revenue despite having a large user base [15][16]. - Privacy concerns are paramount, as input methods have been criticized for collecting unnecessary personal information, leading to regulatory scrutiny and the need for companies to adapt their data collection practices [16]. - Companies are implementing features that allow users to choose between different modes of data collection, balancing functionality with privacy protection [16]. Group 4: Future Directions - The future of input methods is seen as a shift towards becoming intelligent agents that can understand user intent and context, moving beyond basic text input to more complex interactions [12]. - Companies are exploring multi-modal input methods that incorporate voice, text, and images, which require sophisticated algorithms and technology to manage effectively [17].

Core Viewpoint - The "Donggao Hot 1" well breaks the traditional pattern of geothermal resources in China, which is characterized by "strong in the west, weak in the east," and provides a new path for energy diversification in Dongying, while also serving as a practical example for alleviating structural energy contradictions at the national level [1][3]. Geothermal Resource Development - The "Donggao Hot 1" well, located in Dongying, Shandong Province, reaches a depth of 4002.17 meters with a bottom temperature of 162℃ and a wellhead water temperature of 138℃, producing a flow rate of 101.3 cubic meters per hour [2][3]. - The well's breakthrough is based on a geological survey covering approximately 4000 square kilometers and introduces a new theory of "sedimentary basin potential mountain hydrothermal type" for high-temperature geothermal formation [5][6]. Technical Innovations - To address the "hot but no flow" issue, the Shandong Geological and Mineral Exploration Bureau developed a "high-temperature acid fracturing technology" that enhances the flow capacity of geothermal reservoirs by 12 times and increases wellhead temperature by 18℃ [6]. - The principle of "balanced extraction and reinjection, taking heat without depleting water" is emphasized to ensure sustainable geothermal resource development [7][8]. Economic Benefits - The use of geothermal heating in agricultural settings, such as the Shandong Shuangfu Flower Company, has significantly reduced heating costs from 40 yuan per square meter to 15 yuan per square meter, saving approximately 5 million yuan annually [10][11]. - The "Donggao Hot 1" well is estimated to release 679,000 GJ of heat annually, equivalent to about 27,000 tons of standard coal, with potential applications in electricity generation and industrial steam production, contributing to a projected annual economic benefit of around 450 million yuan [12][13]. Future Potential - The geological conditions in regions like Dezhou and Binzhou in Shandong are believed to have similar potential for discovering deep high-temperature geothermal resources, which could further activate the geothermal economy on a larger scale [13].

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry is collectively reflecting on the past years of intense competition, termed "involution," and is advocating for a shift towards a more sustainable competitive landscape that emphasizes technology, quality, brand, and user experience rather than just cost and price [2]. Group 1: Involution and Industry Reflection - The automotive industry consensus in 2025 recognizes that endless low-price competition erodes profits and stifles innovation, leading to a narrow path that does not foster long-term competitiveness [2]. - Major automotive leaders, including those from FAW Group and BAIC Group, have publicly denounced "involution" and emphasized the need for fair competition and healthy industry development [2]. - Geely's chairman highlighted a pivotal moment in 2007 when the company decided to abandon low-price competition, marking a significant turning point in its development [2]. Group 2: Safety as a Priority - Safety has emerged as a critical topic in the automotive industry, especially following several high-profile electric vehicle accidents in 2025 [4]. - Companies like Chery and GAC have established stringent safety standards that exceed national regulations, with GAC introducing a comprehensive safety guarantee policy [4]. - Geely has expanded its safety focus to include data, software, and ecological safety, reflecting a broader understanding of safety beyond just physical vehicle safety [4]. Group 3: Openness and Collaboration - The automotive industry is shifting from a competitive mindset to one of collaboration across the supply chain, with companies forming partnerships with tech firms and other sectors [6][7]. - SAIC Group has articulated a strategy of "equal rights-driven advancement," listing numerous partners across various technological fields, indicating a move towards a more integrated ecosystem [6]. - Chery's initiative to collaborate with top global universities aims to create a platform for continuous innovation, moving beyond mere technology acquisition [7]. Group 4: Smart and Electric Transformation - The consensus among automotive companies is that electrification is a baseline requirement, while smart technology will determine competitive positioning in the industry [9]. - Companies like BYD and NIO are making significant investments in smart technology, with NIO announcing the production of advanced driving chips and operating systems [9]. - The evolution of vehicles into "mobile smart terminals" signifies a fundamental shift in the automotive value proposition, integrating technology and business models [9]. Group 5: Global Expansion - The export of Chinese automobiles has become a crucial factor for future success, with companies like BYD and Dongfeng accelerating their global strategies [12][13]. - The shift from mere product export to a comprehensive value chain export strategy is evident, as companies aim to establish sustainable competitive advantages in international markets [12]. - Chery's global strategy emphasizes becoming an integral part of local markets, highlighting the importance of localized operations and community engagement [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation of pig farming enterprises from passive risk management to active risk management through the establishment of professional futures teams and refined hedging operations in response to ongoing price pressures in the pig market [2][4]. Group 1: Market Overview - In 2025, the pig market faced significant challenges, with average prices significantly lower than in 2023 and 2024, reaching a low of 11 yuan/kg in October, leading to deep industry losses [2][4]. - The average price of lean pigs in 2025 was 13.80 yuan/kg, with a downward trend observed throughout the year, particularly after mid-September when prices fell below the industry cost line [4]. - The overall pig farming industry has experienced four complete cycles of the "pig cycle" since 2006, with the current phase being the most painful "bottoming" stage of the fifth cycle [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - In 2025, the total pig output is expected to reach 747 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, with pork production exceeding 60 million tons for the first time [5]. - The average PSY (pigs weaned per sow per year) increased from 21 in 2024 to 26 in 2025, enhancing the supply capacity by 23.8% under the same breeding stock [5]. - Demand for pork is declining due to macroeconomic factors affecting consumer willingness, with traditional peak seasons seeing a 10%-15% year-on-year decrease in consumption [5]. Group 3: Financial Performance of Companies - Leading companies like Muyuan Foods reported a total sales volume of 77.981 million pigs in 2025, an increase of 6.379 million heads from 2024, but total sales revenue decreased by approximately 3.4 billion yuan due to lower average selling prices [6]. - The cost of pig farming is currently estimated to be between 12 and 13 yuan/kg, with top companies achieving lower costs through management advantages [4]. Group 4: Risk Management Strategies - Companies are increasingly adopting futures hedging as a critical strategy for risk management, moving away from traditional sales models that do not guarantee stable profits [8][9]. - Futures hedging has become a normalized part of operations, focusing on locking in profits rather than speculative trading [9][11]. - The implementation of futures contracts allows companies to stabilize their profits and manage risks effectively, as demonstrated by various companies' experiences in the market [10][12].

自2026年1月1日起，数字人民币钱包余额开始按照活期存款 计付利息。这一变化，于微观而言是账户重构，于宏观而言是 货币突围。 作者：欧阳晓红 封图：图虫创意 你的数字人民币（e-CNY）钱包，终于有了时间的味道。 自2026年1月1日起，数字人民币钱包余额开始按照活期存款计付利息。这一变化，于微观而言是 账户重构，于宏观而言是货币突围。 如果仍执着于"央行直接负债+100%准备金+不计息"，数字人民币则像一项支付工具试验。而在 数字经济时代，当数字人民币走向"存款化、计量框架升级、激励机制更一致"，它就更像一种能 够与经济增长、金融中介机制相适配的货币形态，某种程度上也被赋予了另一层深意——探索跨境 支付的中国方案。 告别零息 2025年12月29日，中国人民银行副行长陆磊在《金融时报》刊文《守正创新稳步发展数字人民 币》。文章披露，新一代数字人民币计量框架、管理体系、运行机制和生态体系将于2026年1月1 日正式启动实施。 文章中更关键的一句话是，这一制度安排在"双层架构"基础上，明确了客户在商业银行钱包中的 数字人民币是以账户为基础的商业银行负债，标志着数字人民币由现金型1.0版进入存款货币型数 字人民 ...

2024年底，光伏产品出口退税曾调降过一次。2025年中开始 业内流传光伏出口退税将全面取消，最终在2026年落定。 作者：潘俊田 封图：图虫创意 1月8日，财政部、国家税务总局发布《关于调整光伏等产品出口退税政策的公告》（下称"公 告"），宣布自2026年4月1日起，取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税，自2026年4月1日起至2026 年12月31日，将电池产品的增值税出口退税率由9%下调至6%；2027年1月1日起，取消电池产 品增值税出口退税。公告还附录了光伏等产品249项、电池产品22项。 出口退税是指在国际贸易中，对已经报关离境的产品，由税务机关将它在出口前再生产和流通环节 中已征收的增值税和消费税返还给出口企业的一种制度。出口越多，企业拿到的出口退税越多。 2024年底，光伏产品出口退税曾调降过一次。2025年中开始业内流传光伏出口退税将全面取消， 最终在2026年落定。 有业内人士向记者表示，取消出口退税会推动光伏产品价格上涨。从这方面来讲，全面取消出口退 税可以加速光伏行业的优胜劣汰和产能出清，推动光伏向更高价值、更先进技术的产品升级方向迈 进；同时还能大幅避免"内卷"外溢，有效提升中国产品的品牌形 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant disparity between the pension levels of farmers and urban retirees, emphasizing the recent adjustments in the contribution limits for rural pensions aimed at improving the financial security of farmers in retirement [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Pension Disparity - In 2023, the average monthly pension for urban retirees was 3162 yuan, while for farmers it was only 214 yuan, a difference of 14.8 times [2]. Recent Changes in Contribution Limits - Several provinces, including Yunnan, Anhui, Guizhou, and Liaoning, announced increases in the maximum contribution limits for rural pensions, with Yunnan's limit reaching 10,000 yuan per year, the highest in the country [2][15]. - The new contribution limits are designed to encourage higher personal contributions, which can significantly enhance future pension benefits [7][10]. Structure of Rural Pensions - Rural pensions consist of a basic pension funded by government subsidies and a personal account pension based on individual contributions. The contribution limits set a cap on how much individuals can contribute annually [2][3]. - The increase in contribution limits is closely tied to the goal of raising the average pension level for farmers, addressing the long-standing issue of low pension benefits [7][8]. Factors Influencing Contribution Choices - Many residents still prefer to contribute at lower levels due to immediate financial constraints, despite the potential long-term benefits of higher contributions [18][21]. - Experts suggest that improving current income levels and increasing awareness about the pension system could encourage more individuals to opt for higher contribution tiers [3][21]. Government Policy and Future Outlook - The adjustments in contribution limits align with government policies aimed at enhancing social security and addressing the needs of an aging population [13][16]. - There is a likelihood that more provinces will follow suit in raising contribution limits, as many still have room for adjustments based on local economic conditions [16].

Core Viewpoint - The case of pet poisoning in Beijing highlights the intersection of animal rights and public safety, emphasizing the need for legal accountability in cases involving harm to pets and the broader implications for community safety [22][23][24]. Group 1: Incident Overview - The poisoning incident occurred on September 14, 2022, resulting in the death of multiple pets, including a dog named Papi, owned by the victim Li Yihan [4][5]. - The toxic substance used was identified as sodium fluoroacetate, a highly toxic rodenticide, which led to the death of 11 animals in the community [8][9]. - The perpetrator, Zhang Mouhua, was sentenced to four years in prison for the crime of "placing dangerous substances," marking a significant legal precedent in Beijing [3][22]. Group 2: Legal Proceedings - The case transitioned from a civil to a criminal matter after the toxicology results confirmed intentional poisoning, leading to a criminal investigation [5][6]. - Li Yihan filed a civil lawsuit alongside the criminal proceedings to seek compensation for the loss of her pet and to ensure her participation in the trial [14][15]. - The trial faced multiple delays, with the final verdict being postponed nine times, reflecting the complexities and public interest surrounding the case [16][23]. Group 3: Public Reaction and Implications - The case has sparked widespread public discourse on animal rights and public safety, with many viewing it as a catalyst for potential changes in animal protection laws [23][24]. - The ruling has been interpreted as a recognition of the value of animal life and the responsibilities of pet owners, while also addressing the dangers posed by irresponsible behavior in public spaces [26][27]. - The case has drawn attention to the emotional and financial aspects of pet ownership, highlighting the challenges in legally quantifying the value of pets beyond market prices [19][20].