Core Insights - The July CPI data indicates that the transmission of tariffs on core goods inflation remains slow, reinforcing market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September [1][2] - The current market's expectation of three rate cuts by the Fed this year may be overly optimistic, as immigration and tariff policies will continue to impact inflation in the second half of the year [3] Inflation Data - In July, the US CPI year-on-year was 2.7% (previous value 2.7%, market expectation 2.8%). The core CPI increased by 0.2 percentage points to 3.1% year-on-year [1] - The month-on-month CPI growth rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 0.2% (market expectation 0.2%), while the core CPI month-on-month was 0.3% (previous value 0.2%), aligning with market expectations [1] Core Goods and Services - The increase in transportation goods inflation in July was a major support for core goods, particularly the significant rebound in the used car segment [2] - Tariff-sensitive goods showed a decline in month-on-month growth rates, with furniture, clothing, and leisure goods maintaining positive growth but at a slower pace compared to June [2] - Medical services and transportation were the main drivers of core services, with strong performance in dental services and airline ticket prices, likely influenced by a rebound in travel demand [2] Federal Reserve Outlook - The July CPI data suggests that the slow transmission of tariffs and stable service demand may lead to a "soft landing" scenario rather than a recession, impacting market expectations for Fed rate cuts [2] - The upcoming employment data for August and the Jackson Hole central bank conference will be critical events for observing the Fed's monetary policy decisions [3]

Macro Analysis - The core viewpoint of the article is that the transmission of tariffs remains slow, leading to an increased expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][4] - In July, the US CPI year-on-year was 2.7%, unchanged from the previous value, while the core CPI rose by 0.2 percentage points to 3.1% [3] - The month-on-month CPI growth rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 0.2%, while the core CPI month-on-month was 0.3%, aligning with market expectations [3] - Food and energy inflation showed a month-on-month decline, with core services being the main driver for the core CPI's month-on-month increase [3] Core Goods and Services - The month-on-month growth rate of tariff-sensitive core goods has declined, with transportation goods inflation being a major support for core goods [3] - The significant rebound in the used car segment contributed to this growth, while tariff-sensitive items like furniture, clothing, and leisure goods saw a decrease in growth rates compared to June [3] - Medical services, particularly dental services, and transportation services, especially airfares, were strong performers in July, driven by a recovery in travel demand [3] Federal Reserve Outlook - The July CPI data indicates that tariff transmission is still slow, and service demand has not shown a significant slowdown, reinforcing market expectations for a September interest rate cut [4] - The persistent core service inflation suggests that the market is trading on a "soft landing" rather than a "recession" scenario, leading to a decline in short-term US Treasury yields [4] - The article suggests that the market's expectation of three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year may be overly optimistic due to potential disruptions from upcoming employment data and the sticky nature of core service inflation [4] Financial Engineering - The article discusses the decomposition of the enhanced CSI 300 index into internal and external components, with internal stocks showing lower tracking error and relative drawdown but also weaker excess returns [7] - The external component provides greater return elasticity, and the study indicates that a multi-factor model based on fundamentals and momentum indicators is more effective for the CSI 300 index [8] - Backtesting results show that the enhanced strategy can achieve an annualized excess return of at least 10% since 2016, with an information ratio above 2.0 [8]

Core Insights - The article discusses the use of a multi-factor model suitable for the CSI 300 index constituents, combined with a small-cap high-growth satellite strategy, to enhance the performance of the CSI 300 enhanced strategy [1][2] - Since 2016, the CSI 300 enhanced strategy has achieved an annualized excess return of 12.6% with a tracking error of 5.2% under a satellite allocation of 30% domestic and 10% foreign [1][2] Summary by Sections - **Performance Analysis**: The CSI 300 enhanced strategy has shown an annualized excess return of at least 10% since 2016, with an information ratio exceeding 2.0. The internal component of the strategy has lower tracking error and relative drawdown, while the external component offers greater return elasticity but with higher tracking error and drawdown [1][2] - **Model Construction**: The multi-factor model is constructed based on fundamental and momentum indicators, which has demonstrated better stock selection robustness compared to the all-A multi-factor model [1] - **Satellite Strategy**: The external component can be replaced with small-cap high-growth or GARP strategies. The optimal satellite allocation depends on the risk-return preference, with the most extreme case showing an annualized excess return of 17.5% when fully utilizing satellite strategies [2]

Core Viewpoint - The military industry is expected to perform well in the long term due to increasing geopolitical tensions and the need for enhanced national defense capabilities [3]. Group 1: Military Industry Performance - The defense and military industry index rose by 5.24% from August 4 to August 8, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.13 percentage points [1]. - The U.S. Navy plans to invest in a 3D printing facility in Guam to shorten maintenance cycles [1]. - Japan is expanding its military influence through initiatives like the "Sword of Protection" [1]. - South Korea is upgrading its joint operational systems with the U.S. [1]. - Australian Navy's new frigates will adopt a "Japanese solution" [1]. Group 2: International Military Exercises - On August 3, a joint naval exercise between China and Russia commenced, focusing on real combat scenarios including joint maneuvering and defense operations [2]. - The exercise, named "Maritime Joint-2025," concluded successfully on August 5, with all planned maritime tasks completed [2]. Group 3: Geopolitical Trends - The shift in U.S. and allied defense strategies towards the Indo-Pacific region is expected to escalate tensions around China [3]. - Increased defense spending is deemed essential to safeguard peace and achieve military goals by 2027, coinciding with the centenary of the military establishment [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation of the macroeconomic analysis framework, highlighting the reallocation of global assets, changes in wealth distribution, and the rebalancing of major power dynamics in the current economic landscape [10][11]. Group 1: New Macro Framework - The "New Macro" framework represents a significant change in the analysis of macroeconomic conditions, reflecting the author's ten years of research experience [11]. - The framework emphasizes the decline of "trust" in global trade and currency systems, indicating a shift in economic relationships [11]. Group 2: Global Asset Repricing - The series of discussions includes topics on the evolution of currency as a "recording tool" and the historical context of monetary evolution [12]. - Insights into the potential space for gold as an investment and the fragile balance of dollar credit are also explored [12][13]. Group 3: Wealth Allocation Migration - The discussions cover the transition of household savings from "returning home" to "moving again," indicating changing patterns in wealth allocation [13]. - The impact of low interest rates on asset allocation strategies for both domestic and overseas residents is analyzed [13][14]. Group 4: Rebalancing of Major Powers - The analysis includes models for assessing U.S. Treasury rates and their implications for asset allocation [15]. - The independence of the Federal Reserve and its decision-making logic regarding interest rate cuts are examined [15]. - The article also discusses the risks associated with new tax cuts in the U.S. and the certainty of Chinese manufacturing in the current economic climate [15].

Core Viewpoint - The article outlines a series of research topics and events scheduled from August 11 to September 2, focusing on various aspects of technology, particularly AI and its impact on different industries, including finance and software [5]. Group 1: AI and Technology Trends - The research series includes discussions on how AI is reshaping enterprise service software and upgrading business models [5]. - There is a focus on the demand for AI computing power in China, indicating a growing market for AI technologies [5]. - The article highlights the historical development and future prospects of computing, emphasizing the importance of technological evolution [5]. Group 2: Industry Opportunities - The article discusses the significant development opportunities in cross-border payments, suggesting a transformative phase for the industry [5]. - It mentions the rise of domestic AI computing leaders, such as Haiguang Information, indicating potential investment opportunities in the sector [5]. - The research series also covers the investment opportunities arising from the digital transformation of enterprises, driven by AI applications [5]. Group 3: Global Perspectives - The article includes insights into the technology policies of the United States towards China, which could impact the tech landscape [5]. - It discusses the global competition among major tech companies in the AI healthcare sector, highlighting potential investment avenues [5]. - The series also addresses the current state and future of quantum technology, indicating its relevance in the broader tech ecosystem [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent shift in global risk appetite driven by expectations of a change in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, leading to a rebound in major stock indices and significant movements in commodities and currencies [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Major stock indices globally experienced a rebound, with the Russian RTS index leading gains due to anticipated meetings between US and Russian leaders [2]. - In developed markets, US stocks saw a comprehensive recovery, with the Nasdaq rising by 3.9%, S&P 500 by 2.4%, and Dow Jones by 1.3% [2]. - Emerging markets also showed strong performance, particularly the Russian RTS which increased by 7.9%, and Vietnam's Ho Chi Minh index which surged by 6.0% [2]. Group 2: Bond Market - The Chinese bond market exhibited a "bull steepening" trend, with the yield curve shifting downward and the 10Y-2Y spread widening [3]. - In contrast, the US bond market showed a "bear flattening" characteristic, with the yield curve moving upward and a near 90% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [3]. Group 3: Commodities and Currencies - Oil prices faced downward pressure due to OPEC+'s decision to significantly increase production in September, reversing previous cuts and alleviating supply concerns [3]. - The British pound strengthened despite the Bank of England's cautious rate cut, as inflation rates rebounded to 3.6% in May and June [3].

8 FI TF 15 F E 3 或用官文教育系列主 孙 越、张紫睿、汤志宇、吴宇 擎、杜 润 琛、孙 飞 帆 王 一 凡 、刘 玉 、唐 元 懋 、郑 子 勋 、顾 一 格 、王 宇 辰 +86-01053827720( 全球 )、+852-51089680( 中国香港 )、+886-277083288( 中国台湾 )； | 15:30-16:10 | 债券量化择时框架与因子筛选初步 | | --- | --- | | | 唐元懋 / 孙越 - 固定收益领域负责人 / 分析师 | | 16:20-17:00 | 突破新高,转债估值和机构行为 | | | 刘 玉 - 固定收益分析师 | | 17:10-17:50 | 穿越牛熊,转债择时和择券框架 | | | 顾一格 - 固定收益分析师 | | | 晚间 | | 19:30-20:10 | 公募 REIT:低息环境下的攻守之道 刘 玉 / 汤志宇 - 固定收益分析师 | | 20:20-21:00 | 南向通新政策、海外利率体系和债券资产 | | | 王一凡 - 固定收益分析师 | | 日本文日 | DECTOR | 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses a series of research methodology seminars held simultaneously in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen on August 15, focusing on various industries such as construction materials, real estate, steel, and transportation [3][6][7]. - The seminars cover topics including cyclical manufacturing research methods, urban cycle studies in real estate, and frameworks for analyzing the steel industry [6][7]. - Specific sessions include discussions on the cooling agent market cycle, petrochemical industry analysis, and the impact of market reforms in the electricity sector [7]. Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding financial cycles in real estate and the implications for investment strategies [7]. - It highlights the need for a comprehensive analysis of the construction materials sector and its consumption trends [7]. - The article also notes the significance of fiscal funding in exploring infrastructure trends and the potential for a super bull market in shipping [7].

Market Performance - Global markets rebounded last week, with MSCI Global up by 2.3%, MSCI Developed up by 2.4%, and MSCI Emerging up by 1.8% [1] - The Hong Kong cyclical sector led the gains, while US tech and consumer discretionary sectors performed well, and European financials and real estate showed strong performance [1] - US 10Y Treasury yields increased, and oil prices saw significant gains [1] Trading Sentiment - Trading volume increased in US and European markets, while Japanese and Korean markets saw a decrease [1] - Investor sentiment in Hong Kong decreased but remained at historical highs, while US investor sentiment increased and also reached historical highs [1] - Volatility decreased in Hong Kong, US, and European markets, while Japanese market volatility increased [1] - Overall valuations in developed and emerging markets improved compared to the previous week [1] Earnings Expectations - Earnings expectations were revised upward across major markets, with Japanese stocks showing the best performance in 2025 EPS expectations [2] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index 2025 EPS expectation was revised from 2192 to 2194 [2] - US S&P 500 Index 2025 EPS expectation was revised from 267 to 268 [2] - European STOXX 50 Index 2025 EPS expectation remained unchanged at 335 [2] Economic Expectations - China's economic expectations were marginally revised upward, influenced by positive policy sentiments and overseas technology developments [2] - The US and European economic surprise indices declined, affected by various geopolitical and economic factors [2] Capital Flows - Global macro liquidity expectations remained stable, with a slight increase in expectations for US Federal Reserve rate cuts following the non-farm payroll data [3] - As of August 8, market expectations indicated a 2.3 rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year, a decrease from the previous week [3] - There was a net inflow into Hong Kong stocks from the southbound trading, while foreign capital outflow from Hong Kong stocks was noted [3]