Market Performance - Developed markets outperformed last week, with MSCI Global index unchanged at +0.0%, MSCI Developed Markets up +0.2%, and MSCI Emerging Markets down -1.5% [1] - In the bond market, long-term rates in Japan increased while U.S. rates decreased [1] - In commodities, silver saw significant gains while soybean prices dropped [1] - The Chinese stock market saw gains in essential consumption, finance, and energy materials, while U.S. stocks in consumer discretionary and technology performed well [1] Trading Sentiment - There was a significant increase in trading volume for U.S. and European stock indices, while Hong Kong and A-shares saw weaker trading volumes [1] - Investor sentiment in Hong Kong decreased and is at historically low levels, while U.S. investor sentiment increased and is at historically high levels [1] - Volatility decreased for Hong Kong, European, and U.S. stocks, while Japanese stocks experienced an increase in volatility [1] - Overall valuation for developed markets rose compared to the previous week, while emerging markets saw a decline in valuation [1] Earnings Expectations - Hong Kong's earnings expectations were slightly revised upward, with the Hang Seng Index's 2025 EPS forecast adjusted from 2064 to 2065 [2] - U.S. earnings expectations remained stable, with the S&P 500 Index's 2025 EPS forecast at 273 [2] - European earnings expectations also remained stable, with the Eurozone STOXX 50 Index's 2025 EPS forecast unchanged at 330 [2] Economic Expectations - Economic sentiment in major markets declined to varying degrees last week [2] - The Citigroup U.S. Economic Surprise Index decreased, influenced by the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on future rate cuts, lower inflation data, and disappointing employment figures [2] - The European Economic Surprise Index also saw a slight decline due to falling consumer confidence and geopolitical tensions [2] - The Citigroup China Economic Surprise Index dropped, affected by disappointing macro data and tightening external conditions [2] Capital Flows - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance on rate cuts for 2026 was noted, with expectations of approximately two rate cuts remaining unchanged from the previous week [3] - Dollar liquidity tightened last week, with the SOFR-OIS spread widening [3] - Global micro liquidity saw significant inflows into China, the U.S., Japan, India, and South Korea, while flexible foreign capital flowed into Hong Kong stocks [3]

Macro Analysis - The US GDP growth rate for Q3 2025 is 4.3%, exceeding expectations of 3.3% and the previous value of 3.8%, indicating strong economic resilience [3] - Key drivers of this resilience include robust personal consumption, increased public spending, and enhanced export contributions [3] - Personal consumption is supported by the wealth effect from capital markets, with major stock indices reaching historical highs in Q3 2025 [3] - Government spending, particularly in defense, and investments in companies like Intel have also contributed to economic strength [3] - A recovery in global economic activity has boosted US exports, aided by trade agreements that have reduced or eliminated tariffs [3] K-Shaped Recovery - The US economy exhibits a "K" shaped recovery, characterized by income and consumption disparities [4] - Income inequality has been exacerbated by policies affecting the job market, leading to higher unemployment rates among minority groups [4] - Large enterprises are faring better than small businesses, as indicated by the S&P Global Composite PMI remaining above the neutral line, while the NFIB small business optimism index has declined [4] - Investment and growth disparities are evident, with strong performance in private non-residential investments, particularly in equipment and intellectual property, while construction investment growth has slowed [4] Future Economic Outlook - The US government shutdown from October 1 to November 12, 2025, is expected to impact Q4 2025 economic performance, but resilience is anticipated in 2026 [5] - The shutdown will reduce government procurement and investment activities, affecting economic performance directly and indirectly [5] - A recovery in Q1 2026 is likely due to pent-up demand and continued strength in consumption and new economic investments [5] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates 2-3 times in 2026, despite a strong economy, due to structural weaknesses in the labor market [5] Globalization of Chinese Enterprises - Chinese enterprises are entering an accelerated phase of globalization, driven by the need to occupy high-value segments of the global supply chain [9] - The transition from a GDP-driven growth model to a GNI-driven model emphasizes innovation and accelerated globalization [9] - China's trade competitiveness has improved significantly, particularly in capital and technology-intensive sectors, with exports exceeding expectations since 2025 [10] - Chinese companies are shifting from product exports to a more integrated approach involving capacity, branding, and distribution [10] Capital Expenditure Trends - A global upturn in industrial and infrastructure capital expenditure is expected, driven by easing monetary policies and increased demand in emerging markets [11] - Southeast Asian countries are experiencing rapid industrialization and urbanization, leading to significant demand for power and infrastructure [11] - Developed markets are also seeing a surge in demand for energy infrastructure updates due to green transitions and AI-driven needs [11] - The resilience of overseas demand for Chinese products is projected to exceed market expectations in 2026 [11] Industry Recommendations - Recommended sectors include power equipment, machinery, automotive, new materials, innovative pharmaceuticals, and gaming [12] - Emerging market industrialization is expected to drive demand for power and infrastructure, while developed markets will continue to update energy infrastructure [12] - High-value components are recommended due to China's technological and cost advantages, with a focus on communication equipment and automotive parts [12] - The urbanization in emerging markets is anticipated to create new demand for consumer products, enhancing the global presence of Chinese cultural and service sectors [12]

Core Viewpoint - Chinese enterprises are entering a new era of globalization, focusing on high-end segments of the global value chain, driven by the need for economic transformation and high-quality development [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The trend of Chinese companies going global is characterized by a systematic approach, moving from product exports to a model that includes "capacity + brand + channel" [2]. - China's trade competitiveness has significantly improved, especially in capital and technology-intensive sectors such as power equipment, engineering machinery, and motorcycles, with notable gains in passenger vehicles, machine tools, new materials, optical communications, and medical devices [2]. - The overseas gross profit margins of non-financial listed Chinese companies have surpassed domestic margins in the first half of 2023, indicating a shift towards higher value-added segments [2]. Group 2: Global Economic Context - The global industrial and infrastructure capital expenditure is entering an upward cycle, with emerging markets accelerating their capital spending due to previous high-interest rate constraints [3]. - Southeast Asian countries, with GDP per capita between $3,000 and $10,000, are experiencing explosive demand for electricity, infrastructure, production equipment, and durable consumer goods [3]. - Developed markets are also seeing a surge in demand for energy infrastructure updates driven by green transitions and AI-related needs, which is expected to boost demand for Chinese power equipment [3]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Recommended sectors include power equipment, machinery, automotive, new materials, innovative pharmaceuticals, and gaming, driven by industrialization in emerging markets and infrastructure updates in developed countries [4]. - High-value components are highlighted due to China's significant technological and cost advantages, with recommendations for communication equipment, automotive parts, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new materials [4]. - Consumer exports are expected to grow due to urbanization in emerging markets and the enhancement of China's cultural soft power, with recommendations for motorcycles, passenger vehicles, and gaming content [4].

上周（2025年12月15日-2025年12月19日），新疆、河南、广西、黑龙江、西藏、云南6个省市共发行25只地方债，规模共计400.37亿元。其中新增一般 债59.62亿元，新增专项债292.58亿元、再融资债券48.16亿元。 上周地方债发行利差为21.09BP，较前一周（2025年12月8日-2025年12月12日）的17.70BP有所抬升。 2026年新增地方债供给高峰或将在二三季度，特殊再融资债发行有望前置。 由于春节前难以形成实物工作量，新增地方债发行或从3月开始放量，第二批额 度下发后各省集中发行，发行高峰或在二三季度；两万亿特殊再融资债发行或将前置，同时关注后续地方债用于政府欠款偿还的政策"工具箱"。 风险提示：基本面变化、政策不及预期、数据统计存在遗漏或偏差。 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy showed resilience in Q3 2025, driven by strong personal consumption, increased public spending, and enhanced export contributions, despite exhibiting a "K"-shaped divergence in income, business performance, and economic sectors [1][2]. Economic Performance - The annualized quarter-on-quarter GDP growth rate for Q3 2025 was 4.3%, surpassing expectations of 3.3% and the previous value of 3.8%, indicating overall economic resilience [2]. - Key drivers of this resilience included: - Strong personal consumption supported by the wealth effect from capital markets, with major stock indices reaching historical highs [2]. - Increased government consumption and investment, particularly in defense spending and investments in companies like Intel, alongside a significant rise in the borrowing plan by the U.S. Treasury [2]. - A rebound in global economic activity that boosted U.S. exports, aided by trade agreements that reduced or eliminated tariffs [2]. "K"-Shaped Divergence - The economy displayed a pronounced "K"-shaped divergence characterized by: - Income disparity leading to consumption differences, exacerbated by immigration policies affecting employment rates among minority groups [3]. - A split in business performance, where large enterprises maintained a positive outlook while small businesses showed relative weakness, as indicated by the S&P Global Composite PMI and NFIB optimism index [3]. - A divergence in investment and growth between new and old economies, with strong performance in private non-residential investments, particularly in equipment and intellectual property, while construction investment growth declined [3]. Future Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to face short-term impacts from the government shutdown in Q4 2025, but overall resilience is anticipated to remain strong into 2026 [4]. - The shutdown is expected to have direct effects on government procurement and investment activities, as well as indirect impacts on income and industry approvals [4]. - A recovery is likely in Q1 2026 due to delayed demand release, sustained consumer spending, and new economic investments, alongside easing trade tensions and global economic recovery [4]. - The forecast remains for the Federal Reserve to implement 2-3 rate cuts in 2026, despite the strong economic performance, due to structural weaknesses in the labor market and potential changes in Fed leadership [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a mixed economic outlook, with continued price increases in technology hardware and rising metal demand driven by emerging technologies, alongside expectations of monetary easing leading to higher non-ferrous metal prices. Meanwhile, domestic demand shows marginal improvement in service consumption, but the real estate and durable goods sectors remain under pressure [1]. Group 1: Economic Trends - The global AI infrastructure is driving demand in the electronics supply chain, leading to significant price increases in high-end memory chips, with DRAM prices for DDR4 and DDR5 reaching $56.9 and $26.7 respectively, reflecting increases of 12.1% and 1.8% [3]. - The service consumption sector shows signs of marginal improvement, with Shanghai Disneyland's crowd index increasing by 11.2% week-on-week and 56.2% year-on-year, and the Hainan tourism price index rising by 0.9% [2]. - The central economic work conference emphasizes the implementation of actions to boost consumption, suggesting potential unexpected policy space for consumption on both supply and demand sides by 2026 [1]. Group 2: Real Estate and Durable Goods - The real estate market remains weak, with a 21.5% year-on-year decline in transaction volume across 30 major cities, particularly in first and second-tier cities where declines are 36.3% and 23.2% respectively [2]. - Sales pressure in durable goods is evident, with average daily retail sales of passenger cars down 17% year-on-year, and domestic sales of household air conditioners dropping by 39.8% [2]. Group 3: Manufacturing and Resource Prices - The manufacturing sector maintains stable operating rates, with construction demand continuing to face challenges, leading to low price fluctuations in steel and building materials [3]. - Coal prices have significantly decreased, while international metal prices have surged due to expectations of interest rate cuts following a lower-than-expected U.S. CPI [3]. Group 4: Transportation and Logistics - Passenger transport demand shows a slight increase, with domestic and international flight operations up by 1.0% and 1.5% respectively, although long-distance travel demand has decreased [4]. - In freight logistics, there is a slight fluctuation in demand, with highway truck traffic increasing by 2.0% while railway freight volume decreased by 2.0% [4].

第二轮机制电价竞价或容易低于第一轮。 1 、 12 月 15 日江西第二批增量机制电：风电电量 1.354 亿度，电价 0.365 元 / 度（首批为 0.375 元 / 度）； 光伏电量 7.499 亿度，电价 0.379 元 / 度（首批为 0.330 元 / 度），第二批电价较第一批下降。 2 、江苏本年调度用电最高负荷 1.44 亿千瓦， YOY+6.06% （ 10 月 YOY+6.06% ）。 3 、吉林 26 年机制电价：风电 0.25 ，光伏 0.33 ，吉林风电过剩相对更多一些。 11 月火电增速再现负增长。 国家统计局： 11 月份，规上工业发电量 7792 亿度， YOY+2.7% （ 10 月 +7.9% ） ， YOY11 月 /10 月 ： 火 -4.2%/7.3% ， 水 +17.1%/+28% ， 核 +4.7%/+4.2% ， 风 +22%/-12% ， 光 +23%/+6% 。 1-11 月 份 ， 规 上 工 业 发 电 量 88567 亿 度 ， YOY+2.4% （ 1-10 月 YOY+2.3% ）。 2025 年 1-11 月份全国固定资产投资同比 -2.6% ， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the release of the "Insurance Company Asset-Liability Management Measures (Draft for Comments)" by the National Financial Supervision and Administration, which aims to systematically regulate asset-liability management for insurance companies in the context of the new accounting standards to be fully implemented by 2026 [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections Regulatory Changes - The new regulations require insurance companies to establish independent asset-liability management departments to ensure accountability and independence in their operations [1]. - A clear regulatory and monitoring indicator system has been established, setting minimum regulatory standards for property and life insurance companies, with key indicators' evaluation periods extended to 3-5 years to promote long-term stable operations in the industry [1]. Impact on Insurance Companies - Currently, most major listed insurance companies have effective duration gaps that are either within or close to the regulatory requirements, indicating that the new regulations are unlikely to significantly impact existing equity asset allocation strategies [1]. Market Outlook - The non-bank sector remains undervalued, and there are optimistic views on the potential for both valuation and performance increases in brokerage firms due to reforms in the investment sector [1]. - The insurance sector is seen as having investment opportunities due to expected valuation increases driven by stabilized interest rates [1].

Group 1: siRNA Drug Development - The core viewpoint is that siRNA drugs are transitioning from rare diseases to common diseases, driven by technological upgrades and product approvals, marking a new era in targeted therapy [3][4] - siRNA drugs are characterized by strong target expansion capabilities, robust research extensibility, long-lasting effects, and low likelihood of developing resistance, making them a focus for domestic pharmaceutical companies [3][4] - Since 2016, with advancements in the GalNac delivery system and fully modified applications, siRNA drugs have entered a rapid development phase, validating their value in rare diseases and gradually moving towards common disease research [3][4] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Opportunities - The market for small nucleic acid drugs is heating up, with multinational corporations (MNCs) actively engaging in business development (BD) transactions, indicating a sustained interest in this field [4] - Chinese companies are expected to shine in this area due to their engineering advantages, particularly in chemical synthesis, allowing for rapid iteration on leading technologies [4] - The commercialization process of siRNA drugs is focused on common diseases with clear biological mechanisms, where early movers are likely to gain significant commercial benefits [5] Group 3: Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The efficiency and specificity of the GalNac delivery system present opportunities for breakthroughs in liver-targeted therapies and the exploration of previously challenging drug targets [5] - The industry is witnessing a shift towards addressing common diseases, with a focus on new disease areas and advancements in extrahaptic delivery systems [5] - The overall sentiment in the pharmaceutical sector is optimistic, with expectations of significant developments in the siRNA drug space, particularly in large indications such as cardiovascular diseases and chronic hepatitis B [3][4][5]

过去一周（ 12 月 15 日 -12 月 19 日）， A 股市场走出了一波"先抑后扬"的震荡行情。 周一、周二市场连续调整，沪指一度下探至 3815 点附近，周三 市场强势反弹，周四至周五则震荡上涨。全周来看，上证指数微涨 0.03% ，但其余股指多数下跌。分行业来看， 大消费板块（如零售、免税、海南自贸区概 念）在政策利好带动下强势崛起，而前期热门的科技成长赛道（如电子、电力设备）则出现回调。市场成交保持相对活跃，日均成交额约 1.76 万亿元。 可转债市场逆势上涨，估值继续修复。 中证转债指数全周累计上涨 0.48% ，转债等权指数小幅上涨 0.60% ，涨幅小于转债正股等权指数（上涨 1.39% ）。转债市场各类指数呈现普涨，高价低溢价率转债和小盘转债表现相对占优，转债大盘指数表现相对落后。转债平价中位数上涨 1.08% 至 100.67 元，而 转债价格中位数上涨 0.75% 至 131.77 元，转股溢价率中位数拉升 0.63pct 至 33.34% 。 预计 12 月剩余时间，转债市场将维持震荡整固，为后续反弹蓄力，展望 2026 年 1 月，有望逐步转向跨年行情预热阶段。 从政策端来看，中央 ...