Group 1: Core Insights - The mechanical equipment index experienced a decline of -1.09% during the period from December 15 to December 19, 2025 [1] - In November 2025, the embodied intelligence sector achieved 35 financing deals, with nearly half exceeding 100 million [1] - Tesla's Robotaxi has begun testing without a safety driver, indicating significant advancements in embodied intelligence technology [1] Group 2: Industry Developments - The U.S. government, under Trump's administration, has outlined a vision for space policy aimed at ensuring American leadership in space exploration and commercial activities [2] - The Long March 12 rocket successfully launched from Hainan, marking a significant milestone in China's commercial space endeavors [2] - In October 2025, China's engineering machinery export trade reached $4.844 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.07%, with exports at $4.668 billion, up 1.29% [3] - November 2025 saw continued high growth in the export volumes of major engineering machinery products, including excavators and loaders, with excavator exports rising by 18.8% year-on-year [3]

Core Viewpoint - The media industry is at a critical juncture with the accelerated development of AI applications and an upward cycle in the entertainment sector, with expectations for strong performance in 2025 and continued strength in 2026 due to product and policy resonance [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Performance - The media index has seen a maximum increase of over 40% within the year, with the gaming sector leading the gains [1]. - The media index recorded its lowest point on January 13 and its highest on September 25, with a maximum decline of 6.42% and a maximum increase of 42.24%, resulting in an overall increase of over 50% from the lowest to the highest point [1]. - The gaming index exhibited the most remarkable performance with a maximum increase of 98.45%, while the film and cinema index benefited from the 2025 Spring Festival, achieving a maximum increase close to 50% [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the media industry maintained steady total operating revenue, with a nearly 40% year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to shareholders [1]. - The gaming sector's net profit attributable to shareholders grew nearly 90% year-on-year in the same period, serving as the main driver for the industry's growth [1]. Group 3: AI and Entertainment Trends - The rapid development of AI applications and the upward cycle of the entertainment industry represent a golden period, with AI now elevated to a national strategic level following the August 2025 issuance of the "Artificial Intelligence +" action plan by the State Council [2]. - Domestic IPs like "Nezha" and "Black Myth: Wukong" have gained popularity not only in China but also globally, showcasing the strong vitality of entertainment content forms born during the internet era [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The launch of multiple new games in 2025 has shown high traffic and revenue, which is expected to enhance the performance of related companies, with similar trends anticipated to continue into 2026 [3]. - The implementation of new regulations in the film and television sector, including adjustments to policies like "costume drama ratio" and "one drama, two stars," is expected to lead to a reversal in both policy and performance for the entertainment industry [3]. - The company recommends focusing on sectors such as gaming, film, AI applications, and IP due to the upward trend in the cultural and entertainment sector [4].

2 道合 国泰海通证券 | 研究所 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 2026年金属行业宏观产业背景和未来发展趋 势是怎样的? 持续看好金属行业的 上行周期 李 HE S 国泰海通研究所 金属和金属新材料行业首席分析师 登记编号: S0880519080003 直播看点 法律声明 本公众订阅号(微信号 GTHT RESEARCH )为国泰海通证券股份有限公司(以下简称"国泰海通证券") 研 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the acceleration of AI large model technology iteration led by Doubao, with Zhipu AI and MiniMax driving the capitalization process of large models [1][2] - The approval of L3 level autonomous driving marks a new phase of conditional commercialization in China [3] - Domestic GPU companies are actively pursuing public listings to support their technological development and market expansion [4] Group 1: AI Large Model Development - Doubao large model 1.8 and Seedance 1.5 Pro were released by Huoshan Engine, achieving significant technological breakthroughs and reducing enterprise usage costs through innovative business models [2] - Zhipu AI and MiniMax have passed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange listing hearing, expected to debut in early 2026, providing a quantifiable secondary market valuation benchmark for the large model industry [2] Group 2: Autonomous Driving Progress - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued L3 level autonomous driving vehicle permits, indicating a shift from testing to conditional commercialization [3] - Specific models from Chang'an and BAIC Arcfox are allowed to operate on designated routes with speed limits of 50 km/h and 80 km/h respectively, with the vehicle manufacturer being responsible during normal operation [3] Group 3: GPU Companies and Capitalization - Domestic GPU companies are intensively pursuing capital markets, with TianShu Zhixin planning to raise $300 to $400 million through a Hong Kong listing [4] - Other companies like Biran Technology and Kunlun Chip Technology are also advancing their listing processes to secure long-term funding for advanced chip development and capacity expansion [4]

报告导读： 海外债高波动下的修复经验，对当前国内债市有何参考意义？ 债券市场高波动与反弹修复是固收研究核心议题。 近年来全球主要国债市场频繁经历剧烈波动，美债 2014 年闪崩、 2021 年快速波动以及日债 YCC 调整 期间的流动性恶化，均显示波动幅度更大、修复路径更复杂的新特征。从微观结构看，投资者结构差异、资金流动特征与做市商行为对波动放大与抑制产生重 要影响。从事件驱动与交易行为双维度剖析反弹触发机制，可以为当前市场研判提供参考。 债券市场高波动可分为三类：预期修正型 由数据超预期引发政策路径重定价，修复快速（数日至数周）， 2022 年美国通胀意外为典型案例； 政策拐点型 源于央行框架系统性转变，修复周期长（数月）， 2013 年缩减恐慌和日本 YCC 渐进调整体现渐进策略的稳定作用； 风险情绪型 由外生冲击触发，呈 V 型 或持续动荡， 2020 年疫情危机与 2022 年英国国债危机显示政策干预的决定性作用。 微观结构与投资者行为是理解波动 - 反弹机制的关键。 流动性层面，高波动期市场深度骤降、买卖价差扩大，做市商库存恢复与报价改善是反弹启动的前提 条件。投资者行为存在异质性：机构投资者初期 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - Global risk appetite is weak, with significant asset performance divergence observed. Developed markets show gains while emerging markets decline, with the UK FTSE 100 and Vietnam index leading in gains. Precious metals continue to perform strongly, with COMEX silver increasing by 9.4% in the week and over 120% year-to-date [3][4] - The correlation between A-shares and REITs has decreased, while the positive correlation between A-shares and Indian stocks has also marginally declined. The risk premium of the CSI 300 relative to 10Y Chinese government bonds has decreased, while the risk premium of the S&P 500 relative to 10Y US Treasuries has increased [3] Group 2: Equity Market Performance - The MSCI global index remained relatively flat, with developed markets outperforming emerging and Asian markets. The MSCI emerging and Asian indices fell by 1.5% and 1.9%, respectively. In the US, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq saw slight increases, while the Dow Jones and Russell 2000 declined [4] - A-shares experienced a slight decline, with the Wind All A index down by 0.2%. The Korean market also saw significant pullbacks, with the KOSPI down by 3.5% and KOSDAQ down by 2.4%. Conversely, Vietnam's Ho Chi Minh index rebounded by 3.5% after previous adjustments [4] Group 3: Bond Market Insights - The Chinese bond market shows a "bull steepening" trend, with the yield curve shifting downward and the 10Y-2Y yield spread widening. AAA-rated bond yields have generally decreased, while credit spreads have increased [5] - The US bond market also exhibits a "bull steepening" characteristic, with a similar downward shift in the yield curve. The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in January 2026 is currently at 22.1%, with anticipated cuts moved forward to March and July [5] Group 4: Commodity and Currency Trends - Commodity performance shows divergence between domestic and international markets, with the dollar index rising by 0.3%. The CRB commodity index fell by 1.1%, while the South China index increased by 0.1%. Eight out of thirteen major commodity futures recorded gains, with COMEX silver leading [5] - The US natural gas price rose by 33% from $3.36 to $4.48 per mmbtu, while European gas prices fell by 12%. The average gasoline crack spread in Singapore increased by 111% year-on-year [9][10] Group 5: Automotive Industry Developments - The National Market Supervision Administration has proposed a compliance guideline for automotive pricing, aiming to regulate pricing behaviors in the industry. This guideline is expected to mitigate price wars and improve profit margins for automakers and dealers [14][15] - The guideline emphasizes fair pricing strategies based on production costs and market demand, requiring clear rebate policies and respect for dealer pricing autonomy. This is anticipated to enhance the pricing ecosystem within the automotive supply chain [14][15]

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector has confirmed its cyclical bottom in Q2 2025, with a reversal in supply-demand dynamics and sufficient release of downward risks [1]. Group 1: Coal Price Dynamics - The core driver of coal price trends is the supply-demand structure, with the current price drop having limited room for further decline, expected to bottom out at 680-700 RMB/ton [1]. - In November, coal prices are projected to rebound to over 800 RMB/ton, with imports slightly increasing by 5.9% to 44 million tons, while domestic supply is expected to recover to 430 million tons, although still down year-on-year [1]. Group 2: Seasonal Demand and Supply - As of December 19, 2025, the price of Q5500 coal at Huanghua Port is 721 RMB/ton, down 42 RMB/ton (-5.5%) from the previous week, indicating a stable domestic supply and reduced imports [2]. - The demand for coking coal is expected to improve significantly during the off-season, with the average daily iron output showing a slight decrease, suggesting that demand may remain strong [2]. Group 3: Industry Review - As of December 19, 2025, the price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1700 RMB/ton, up 50 RMB/ton (3.0%), while the inventory of coking coal across three ports is 2.797 million tons, down 7.1% [3]. - The offshore price of Q5500 coal at Newcastle, Australia, has decreased by 3 USD/ton (-3.8%), with domestic coal being 19 RMB/ton cheaper than imported coal [3].

国泰海通证券 | 研究所 国泰海通多行业联合系列电话会 卫星制造、元器件、分系统、总装、火箭发射、 运营应用、通信、算力、 导航、 遥感、地面站、深空算力硬件 卫星制造 专场 第一期:12月 13 日 20:00 及政策端迎来持续利好催 化,由此将对我国卫星产 业链带来哪些显著影响? 杨天吴 军工行业首席分析师 第四期: 12 月 22 日 20:00 专力 商业航天中增材制造(3d 打印) 技术应用情况分享。 刘绮斐 机械行业分析师 t the treat to the sere the sere the treation to the see the the serest to the serest to the treation to the treation to the see the start was and the see and the see and t EE) 张江 涂力磊 研究所所长助理、房地产研究首席分 析师、中小市值与创新股权研究联席 首席分析师 近期我国商业航天在产业 火箭发射专场 #-期: 12月14日20:00 我国商业航天发展有望进入快车道,由此将在火箭发射产业链带来哪 些 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the release of the "Insurance Company Asset-Liability Management Measures (Draft for Comments)" aimed at comprehensively regulating the asset-liability management system of insurance companies, emphasizing the need for long-term stable operations and maintaining a "buy" rating for the industry [1][5]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Framework - The new measures require insurance companies to establish a governance structure where the board of directors holds ultimate responsibility, with senior management leading directly and a dedicated asset-liability management department coordinating efforts [3]. - The measures specify policies and procedures for asset-liability management, including requirements for asset and liability analysis, product pricing management, asset allocation policies, and stress testing [3]. Regulatory and Monitoring Indicators - Regulatory indicators set minimum standards for asset-liability management, including coverage ratios for property insurance companies and effective duration gaps for life insurance companies [3]. - Monitoring indicators are designed to identify and warn against asset-liability mismatch risks, enhancing risk management levels [3]. Impact on Industry - The introduction of these measures is expected to benefit leading insurance companies that comply with stricter asset-liability management requirements, particularly in a declining interest rate environment and amidst accounting standard changes [4]. - The measures promote long-term stable operations by optimizing the calculation of indicators over a 3-5 year period, aligning with the regulatory focus on asset-liability matching [4].

Group 1: Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic factors, such as monetary policy, geopolitical tensions, and supply disruptions, in influencing metal prices, particularly in a tight supply-demand balance [1] - Industrial metals are expected to benefit from liquidity, traditional recovery, and AI demand, which are seen as three driving forces [1] Group 2: Precious Metals - Silver prices continue to rise, with last week's London spot silver price surpassing $66 per ounce, supported by ongoing inventory disruptions [1] - The outlook for gold remains positive, with expectations of increased central bank purchases and rising gold ETF holdings, alongside a weakening dollar index due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - Geopolitical risks from the Russia-Ukraine negotiations are noted as a short-term concern, while silver inventory shortages may lead to stronger price performance [1] Group 3: Copper - The copper market is experiencing increased supply vulnerability, with the 2026 copper long-term contract processing fees set at $0 per ton and $0 per pound, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of $21.25 per ton and 2.125 cents per pound [2] - Strong demand from AIDC and the power grid is expected to exacerbate copper supply vulnerabilities, leading to a potentially strong copper price [2] Group 4: Aluminum - Aluminum prices are supported by macroeconomic improvements, despite supply disruptions from South32's Mozal Aluminum due to unresolved power agreements, which may lead to production cuts [2] - The processing operating rate for aluminum continues to decline, currently at 61.5%, while alumina prices are under pressure due to high bauxite inventories [2] Group 5: Energy Metals - Lithium demand is showing signs of weakening, with rising production levels leading to decreased inventory depletion rates, while market uncertainties regarding the resumption of key mines in Jiangxi persist [3] - Cobalt prices remain high due to tight upstream raw material supplies, while downstream demand is cautious [3] - Rare earth prices have decreased, particularly for medium and heavy rare earths, while tin supply remains uncertain due to disruptions in Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Indonesia [3]