报告来源 报告导读： 在数字化浪潮中，数据中心作为数字经济的关键基础设施，正经历着深刻变 革。 AI 的蓬勃发展为数据中心带来前所未有的机遇，行业订单呈现出显著的拐点特征，开 启了新一轮的增长周期。 若参考字节、阿里巴巴、腾讯的资本开支规划及对 AI 投入的景气度判断，我们预计未来三年国内的头部 互联网厂商资本开支将维持高位，预计带来至少 7GW 的 IT 电力新增需求，而现有第三方 IDC 储备规模 不到 5GW ，这为相关企业提供了广阔的发展空间。 从需求端来看， AI 已成为算力规模增长的核心驱动力。根据中国信息通信研究院《综合算力评价报 告》， 2023 年底全球算力总规模达 910EFLOPS （ FP32 ），我国智算规模同比增长超 70% ，增长 势头强劲。全球数据中心核心 IT 电力需求预计从 2023 年的 49GW 增至 2026 年的 96GW ，其中新建 智算中心驱动的电力需求占增量的 85% 。海外云厂商如亚马逊、谷歌、 META 、微软等， 2025Q1 资 本开支持续高增，且对 2025 全年保持乐观预期，大量资金将投入 AI 和技术升级领域。国内互联网厂商 也进入 AI 加速投 ...

更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 法律声明 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The consumer market is experiencing a divergence in performance, with passenger car retail sales exceeding expectations, while tourism demand continues to rise, and movie box office revenues showing a decline. Manufacturing activity is improving, but construction demand remains weak, leading to price increases in steel and coal due to anti-involution expectations [1]. Group 1: Consumer Market - Passenger car retail sales showed a significant increase in June, with a year-on-year growth of 18.3%, surpassing previous expectations, although dealer inventory pressure is slightly rising, indicating uncertainty in the sustainability of this growth [2]. - Real estate sales are declining, with a 25.9% year-on-year decrease in transaction area across 30 major cities, and a more pronounced drop in first, second, and third-tier cities [2]. - Service consumption is mixed, with tourism demand increasing, reflected in a 1.6% month-on-month rise in the tourism consumption price index in Hainan, while movie box office revenues fell by 39.1% year-on-year, indicating a shift from positive to negative growth [2]. Group 2: Manufacturing Sector - The construction sector is facing weak demand, impacting building activity, while anti-involution policies are expected to enhance the exit of outdated capacities, leading to a rebound in steel prices despite weak demand [3]. - Manufacturing activity is improving, with increased operating rates in the automotive and chemical industries, and a rise in asphalt production, suggesting resilience in infrastructure construction demand [3]. - Resource prices are affected by seasonal temperature increases leading to higher coal consumption, with coal prices continuing to rise amid tightening supply expectations [3]. Group 3: Transportation and Logistics - Passenger transport demand is on the rise, with a 3.8% month-on-month increase in the migration scale index and a 1.6% increase in domestic flight operations week-on-week, indicating a recovery in travel activity [4]. - Freight logistics are also showing growth, with a 0.2% increase in highway truck traffic and a 1.5% increase in railway freight volume week-on-week, alongside a year-on-year growth of 15.9% in postal express collection [4]. - Maritime transport prices are recovering, with slight fluctuations in domestic port cargo and container throughput, indicating ongoing activity in the shipping sector [4].

Core Viewpoint - The humanoid robot industry is transitioning from a technological explosion to commercial validation, with significant developments expected by 2025 [1] Research Reports - The humanoid robot industry is entering the "1 to 100" phase, where manufacturers are tested on their ability to implement scenarios, and the hardware outsourcing model is emerging [1][29] - The market for tactile sensors is projected to reach a scale of 1 trillion yuan as humanoid robot production increases [5][7] - The bearing market is expected to see significant growth due to the rising demand from humanoid robots, with a focus on domestic replacement opportunities [9][10] Conference Reviews - Various forums and conferences have been held to discuss the advancements and confidence in the humanoid robot industry, highlighting the collaboration across multiple sectors [3] Deep Report Excerpts - Tactile sensors are crucial for the functionality of humanoid robots, with the market for these sensors expected to grow significantly as production scales up [5][7] - The bearing market is poised for growth, with domestic manufacturers focusing on replacing imported high-end bearings [9][10] - The development of dexterous hands is essential for humanoid robots, with a focus on reducing costs and enhancing functionality [14][15] Industry Trends - The tactile sensor market is projected to grow from $15.33 billion in 2024 to $35.59 billion by 2031, with a CAGR of 12.8% [7] - The global bearing market is expected to exceed $2430.3 billion by 2030, with significant opportunities for domestic manufacturers [10] - The 3C supply chain is well-positioned to enter the humanoid robot market, leveraging its rapid iteration and innovation capabilities [18][19] Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies that can produce dexterous hands and tactile sensors, as these components are critical for the commercial viability of humanoid robots [14][15] - The domestic bearing industry is encouraged to accelerate technological advancements to meet the growing demand from the humanoid robot sector [9][10] Market Outlook - The humanoid robot market is expected to see substantial growth, driven by advancements in technology and increasing production volumes [1][29] - The tactile sensor market could reach approximately 1.3 trillion yuan when humanoid robot production hits 100 million units [7] - The bearing market is projected to benefit from the increasing demand for high-end bearings in humanoid robots, with significant potential for domestic replacements [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The overall economic growth remains constrained, but improvements in emerging technologies and certain cyclical sectors are becoming increasingly evident [3] Group 1: Economic Overview - In Q2, the economy is characterized by "volume increase and weak prices," with improvements in exports and consumption but insufficient investment momentum [3] - As of July 16, 1531 companies have disclosed mid-year performance forecasts, with a positive forecast rate of 43.7%, lower than the past three years [3] - Estimated profit growth for the entire A-share market and non-financial A-shares in the first half of the year is 1.0% and 1.2%, respectively [3] Group 2: Sector Performance - The growth of new and old economies is increasingly divergent, with mid and downstream sectors performing better than upstream, particularly in high-tech industries like equipment manufacturing [3] - Industries such as technology hardware, resource products, and non-bank financials are experiencing rapid profit growth, with sectors like electronics, non-ferrous metals, and agriculture showing high growth forecasts [3] - Conversely, the real estate sector and consumer durables like automobiles and furniture are experiencing weaker growth [3] Group 3: Industrial Challenges - Industrial enterprises are facing challenges, with accounts receivable turnover declining and inventory turnover showing little improvement, indicating ongoing operational difficulties [4] - The overall gross profit margin for industrial enterprises is decreasing, leading to actual profits being weaker than reported profits [4] - Industries with noticeable improvements in turnover include military, non-ferrous metals, and agricultural products [4] Group 4: Emerging Technologies - Emerging technologies are the main area of improvement, particularly in globally competitive sectors where performance is accelerating due to domestic demand and export growth [5] - Industries benefiting from this trend include military, innovative pharmaceuticals, and media gaming, while AI capital expenditure is facing uncertainties [5] Group 5: Cyclical and Financial Sector Improvements - Certain cyclical products, such as rare earths and small metals, are seeing price increases, while sectors like steel and building materials are showing signs of performance improvement [6] - Non-bank financials are benefiting from capital market improvements, with active trading levels and a downward trend in risk-free interest rates contributing to high growth in brokerage and insurance sectors [6]

Core Viewpoint - The report anticipates that convertible bonds with positive performance in Q2 2025 will be concentrated in high-end manufacturing sectors such as communication, electronics, military, automotive parts, transportation equipment, industrial control equipment, energy equipment, and electric power equipment, as well as in non-ferrous and basic chemical industries benefiting from price increases [1]. Group 1: Industry Performance Insights - The profit growth in the non-ferrous metal mining industry is expected to reach 41.7% year-on-year, driven by rising prices and increased production and sales of metals like gold, copper, zinc, and silver [2]. - The railway, shipbuilding, aerospace, and other transportation equipment manufacturing sectors are projected to see a profit increase of 56% year-on-year, benefiting from global shipping recovery and significant orders for LNG carriers and container ships [2]. - The computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing sectors, along with electrical machinery and general equipment manufacturing, are expected to maintain double-digit profit growth due to high demand for AI hardware, smart terminals, and industrial control equipment [2]. - The agricultural and sideline food processing industry is anticipated to experience a profit growth rate of 38.2%, primarily due to the demand for high-value-added products like prepared dishes and health foods [2]. Group 2: Company-Specific Performance - Among the companies that have disclosed their H1 2025 performance forecasts, 272 companies are expected to achieve a non-net profit growth of over 30% in Q2 2025, mainly in the basic chemicals, electric power equipment and new energy, machinery, electronics, and automotive sectors [3]. - In the basic chemicals sector, companies are expected to benefit from price increases in phosphates, pesticides, and refrigerants [3]. - The electric power equipment and new energy sector's high-performing companies are expected to benefit from increased overseas photovoltaic storage orders, domestic ultra-high voltage and smart grid construction, and rising domestic orders for new energy vehicles and military products [3]. - The machinery sector's growth is driven by high demand for industrial mother machines, semiconductor equipment, energy equipment, shipbuilding, and rail transit equipment [3]. - The electronics sector's growth is attributed to increased investment in AI computing power, accelerated domestic substitution of semiconductor equipment and materials, and growth in consumer electronics and smart terminal shipments [3]. - The automotive sector is expected to see high growth due to increased sales of domestic new energy vehicles and accelerated exports of commercial vehicles and automotive parts [3]. Group 3: Performance Forecast Adjustments - A list of 13 convertible bond targets has been identified, which have seen their average net profit forecasts raised by over 5% in the past three months, with more than three forecasting institutions involved, indicating potential marginal improvements in performance [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the future policy direction for the real estate sector will focus on achieving the goal of "stopping the decline and stabilizing" the market, with a shift in housing policy from quantity to quality and exploring stock opportunities on the supply side to stabilize quality blue-chip companies and maintain the industry's fundamentals [1][2]. Summary by Sections Policy Direction - The central urban work conference highlighted that urbanization in China is transitioning from a rapid growth phase to a stable development phase, with urban development shifting from large-scale expansion to improving the quality and efficiency of existing stock [2]. - The meeting outlined seven key tasks for urban work, which align with the top-level design addressing "urban diseases" discussed in the 2015 urban work conference [2]. Investment Recommendations - The company maintains an "overweight" rating, anticipating that the fourth quarter of this year will face high baseline challenges. It is expected that policies will focus on storage and urban renewal in the third quarter to alleviate fundamental pressures and strive to achieve the goal of stabilization [1]. - A significant gap of 236 million square meters exists between sales and completions in 2024, indicating a potential recovery in completions in the second half of the year [1]. Focus Areas - The conference emphasized the need for high-quality urban renewal and the establishment of a new model for real estate development, which includes enhancing quality in new projects and updating existing stock [3]. - The topic of urban village and dilapidated housing renovation was reiterated, with expectations for increased project volume by 2025 and a focus on the pace of issuing policy-supported loans (PSL) [3]. - National land storage plans for the first half of 2025 are projected to reach 475.9 billion yuan, while special bond issuance is only 96.1 billion yuan, indicating a need for accelerated issuance by local governments [3].

Group 1: Furniture Industry - The furniture industry is experiencing a recovery supported by the demand from the existing housing market and the ongoing "old-for-new" national subsidy policy [1] - Leading companies possess comprehensive channel layouts, stronger brand power, and mature marketing systems, while smaller firms may face "traffic bottlenecks," amplifying the advantages of top players [1] Group 2: Personal Care Industry - The demand in the personal care sector is relatively inelastic, with companies focusing on product innovation and precise consumer targeting, while the integration of online and offline channels is becoming a trend [1] Group 3: Export Chain - Starting from Q4 2024, the performance of the export chain will be affected by a weakening low base effect, with internal growth becoming more significant, depending on downstream industry demand and the company's efforts in category, channel, and customer expansion [1] - Increased tariff disruptions are expected, benefiting companies with overseas production capacity, leading to further excess revenue performance [1] Group 4: Two-Wheeled Vehicles - The "old-for-new" policy is being intensified, and major automotive companies are set to launch significant new products in early 2025, with inventory replenishment at the channel level to meet peak season demand, resulting in an upward trend in performance [1] - In the medium to long term, the competitive advantages of leading brands are expected to expand due to new national standards and manufacturing capacity constraints, leading to a continued concentration in the market [1] Group 5: Millet and Stationery - The millet market has a broad outlook, with traditional stationery moving towards cultural and creative products, while the pan-entertainment toy market is expected to grow faster due to its entertainment and interactivity [2] Group 6: Smart Glasses - The smart glasses industry is witnessing an explosion in trends, with major manufacturers accelerating the integration of products with AI models, and the first generation of products has been released, with others expected to launch by 2025 [2] Group 7: Paper Industry - A turning point in cost has been confirmed, with a positive outlook for the profitability of specialty paper compared to bulk paper, as profitability is expected to improve starting Q4 2024 [2] - Price increases for paper are anticipated, with pulp prices peaking in Q1 2025, leading to improved profit margins [2] Group 8: Packaging Industry - The packaging industry is currently stable, with an expected improvement in profitability driven by optimized market structure, as capital expenditure is slowing down and companies focus on efficiency and shareholder returns [2] - As the industry enters a competitive phase in the existing market, mergers and acquisitions among leading companies are accelerating, which may lead to an upward shift in the overall profitability of the industry [2]

Core Insights - The article discusses the rise in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June, which increased by 2.7% year-on-year, up from 2.4% in the previous month and slightly above the market expectation of 2.6% [1] - Core CPI also saw a year-on-year increase of 0.1 percentage points to 2.9%, aligning with market expectations, while the month-on-month CPI growth rose by 0.2 percentage points to 0.3%, matching market expectations [1] - The increase in energy prices is identified as the main driver behind the rise in inflation for June [1] Tariff Impact - The article notes that the impact of tariffs on core goods is beginning to manifest, although the overall effect remains moderate [1] - Specific categories such as clothing, furniture, sports equipment, and audio-visual products showed significant month-on-month price increases, while the inflation for automobiles and pharmaceuticals remained weak [1] Core Services - In June, inflation in core services, particularly in medical and transportation services, showed strong performance, with a notable increase in airfares [2] - The housing component saw a slight decrease in month-on-month growth, primarily due to a significant drop in hotel accommodation prices, while rent inflation remained stable [2] Outlook - The article suggests that inflation is expected to rise moderately, with the Federal Reserve likely to maintain a wait-and-see approach [2] - It is indicated that the current price reductions by exporters are not yet significant, and the tariff costs are mainly borne by U.S. importers [2] - As existing inventories are gradually consumed, the pressure from tariffs is anticipated to shift from importers to consumers, potentially leading to further increases in CPI in July [2]

Core Viewpoint - The global tin market is experiencing a decline in ore grade and rising cost levels, while macroeconomic conditions are improving and demand expectations are positive, leading to a tightening supply situation that enhances the pricing power of mining companies. The central price of tin is expected to rise, suggesting investment in leading companies with quality resources [1][2]. Supply Dynamics - Global tin ore grades are declining, and the cost structure is shifting upwards. According to ITA, the complete cost of tin mining was approximately $25,581 per ton in 2022 and is projected to rise to $33,800 per ton by 2027. The recovery of mines in Myanmar is slow due to a 30% export tax on tin, and political instability in parts of Africa and South America may further disrupt supply. Overall, global tin production is expected to reach 300,000 tons by 2025, a 2% increase year-on-year, while total supply is projected at 380,000 tons, also a 2% increase [2][3]. Demand Trends - The downstream sector, particularly tin solder, which accounts for about 56% of consumption, is expected to see increased demand due to advancements in AI and the recovery of consumer electronics. The global semiconductor cycle is stabilizing, which will likely boost solder demand. Additionally, the photovoltaic sector's impact on overall tin demand is limited, as it only represents about 20% of solder production. A projected supply gap of 8,300 tons in refined tin by 2025 highlights the growing supply-demand imbalance [3]. Macroeconomic Environment - The global monetary environment is becoming more accommodative, with the U.S. PCE inflation rate recorded at 2.34% in May 2025, moving closer to the 2% target. Although employment data shows some risks, market expectations suggest potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September 2025, which would benefit asset prices. The overall liquidity in the market is expected to improve, positively influencing raw material prices [4].