国泰海通证券 | 研究所 葡 12-5 国泰海通证券2025消费品年会 2025年 9月2日-3日 上海 · 金茂君悦大酒店 联席首席分析 联席首席分 织服装 在线上游戏即时 7越田 杜服 家用电器 以用相 *议程内容更新于2025年8月25日15:40 9月2日上午 · 主会场 | 09:00-09:10 开场致辞 | | | --- | --- | | | 陈忠义 - 国泰海通证券副总裁、研究与机构业务委 | | | 员会总裁、政策和产业研究院院长 | | 09:10-09:40 | 长寿时代消费趋势 | | | 张教授-复旦大学人口研究所所长 | | 09:40-10:10 | 国货美妆如何逆袭? | | | 舒总-美妆商业评论主理人 | | 10:10-10:40 | 功能性保健品时代 | | | 杨总-仙乐健康董事 | | 10:40-11:10 | 超市调改解读与展望 | | | 知名超市专家 | | 11:10-12:00 | 圆桌论坛 | | | 新消费时代 | | | 警 猛-研究所所长助理、消费组长、食品饮料/美护 | | | 首席分析师 | | | 新消费持续高景气,强政策推动大机会 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article outlines the agenda for the upcoming research framework training hosted by Guotai Junan Securities, focusing on various sectors including advanced manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, and technology [12]. Group 1: Event Schedule - The training sessions are scheduled for August 18, 19, 25, and 26, from 9:00 AM to 5:40 PM [8]. - The agenda includes a variety of research topics such as non-metallic building materials, non-ferrous metals, public utilities, steel, construction engineering, and more [9][10]. Group 2: Research Topics - On August 25, the focus will be on cyclical sectors, including non-metallic building materials and steel research [9]. - On August 26, the sessions will cover pharmaceuticals, technology, and advanced manufacturing, with specific topics like biomedicine and overseas technology research [10]. Group 3: Additional Information - The training aims to provide insights and foster collaboration for future value creation [12]. - The content is intended for clients of Guotai Junan Securities' research services, emphasizing the importance of appropriate access to the information provided [13].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of major engineering projects in stabilizing and promoting the real estate market, as highlighted in the State Council meeting on August 18 [3] - The government aims to enhance the effectiveness of macro policies, respond to market concerns, and stabilize market expectations through targeted measures [3] - There is a focus on increasing effective investment and promoting private investment, alongside the construction of a unified national market to leverage market dividends [3] Group 2 - The State Council issued guidelines for the construction and operation of existing PPP projects, advocating for a classified and graded approach to project management [4] - The guidelines stress the importance of ensuring the smooth construction of ongoing projects and prioritizing those with certain returns, while also addressing slow-moving projects through optimization [4] - Financial institutions are encouraged to support ongoing projects in a market-oriented and lawful manner [4] Group 3 - For operational projects, the article highlights the need for legal compliance in payment and enhanced project operation supervision to achieve cost reduction and efficiency [5] - Local governments are urged to manage government expenditure responsibilities according to contracts and to utilize various funding sources for PPP project costs [5] - The article encourages equal communication and mutual benefits among social capital, financial institutions, and government entities to optimize project implementation [5] Group 4 - The State Council approved the overall plan for the "Three North" project, which aims to integrate ecological protection and economic development [6] - The plan emphasizes the need for coordinated planning and the implementation of supportive policies to foster local industries [6]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the growing demand for switch chips driven by the expansion of AI chip Scale up clusters, with significant opportunities for domestic manufacturers in the high-speed chip market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - The total scale of China's switch chips is projected to reach 257 billion, 356 billion, and 475 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 61%, 39%, and 33% [1]. - The current low domestic production rate of switch chips, especially in the high-end market, presents a substantial opportunity for domestic manufacturers to increase market share as they continue to make breakthroughs in high-speed rates [1]. Group 2: Technological Developments - The evolution of large language models (LLMs) is leading to the development of various strategies such as data parallelism and tensor parallelism to address the challenges of model size, necessitating high bandwidth and low latency networks [1]. - The Scale up network's bandwidth significantly exceeds that of Scale out networks, making it the preferred technical solution in the industry [1]. Group 3: Domestic Innovations - Domestic AI companies are launching their own super-node products equipped with Scale up switch nodes to enhance communication efficiency [2]. - Companies like Huawei, Baidu, and ZTE are developing super-node solutions that support high interconnectivity, with ZTE's super-node server achieving GPU communication bandwidth of 400GB/s to 1.6T/s [2]. Group 4: Protocol Landscape - In the Scale up switch domain, Ethernet, PCIe, and private protocols (such as NVLink and UB) are expected to coexist, while Ethernet is likely to dominate the Scale out domain due to its open ecosystem and cost advantages [3].

Group 1 - DeepSeek launched the V3.1 model on August 21, which introduces the "UE8M0" innovation aimed at the next generation of domestic chip design. The upgrade includes a hybrid reasoning architecture, improved reasoning efficiency, and enhanced agent capabilities through post-training optimization. The "UE8M0" FP8 is specifically designed for upcoming domestic chips, optimizing core AI operations like matrix multiplication, which is crucial for building a self-sufficient AI ecosystem in China [5][6][7] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) is cautiously exploring a 24-hour trading mechanism and T+1 settlement cycle. The technology system is expected to support T+1 settlement by the end of this year, but implementation will depend on feedback from market participants. This initiative aims to enhance market efficiency and attract global trading participants, aligning with international trends [6][7] Group 3 - On August 22, the China Information Security Evaluation Center announced that three centralized database products passed the security evaluation. The products include those from China Mobile (Suzhou) Software Technology Co., Tianjin Shenzhou General Data Technology Co., and Shenzhen Computing Science Research Institute. The number of evaluated centralized databases decreased from six to three, indicating a rise in entry barriers for trusted databases, which may lead to increased market share concentration among leading vendors [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent dovish stance taken by Powell at the Jackson Hole central bank meeting, indicating a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, although the pace of cuts is expected to be slow due to inflation concerns [1][4]. Global Asset Performance - Major stock markets showed an upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 3.5%, the Hang Seng Index by 0.3%, and the S&P 500 by 0.3%. In contrast, the Nikkei 225 Index fell by 1.7% [2]. - Commodity prices exhibited mixed results, with IPE Brent crude oil futures increasing by 2.5%, the S&P-Goldman Commodity Index rising by 2.1%, and London gold increasing by 1.1%. The South China Commodity Index, however, decreased by 0.4% [2]. - The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds fell by 7 basis points to 4.26%, while the U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.12% to 97.72 [2]. U.S. Economic Overview - The manufacturing sector in the U.S. showed signs of recovery, with the Markit Manufacturing PMI for August exceeding market expectations. The services PMI slightly declined but remained at a relatively high level [3]. - Real estate sales and new construction have seen a rebound, with July's existing home sales volume increasing despite a decrease in prices. New housing starts showed a significant year-on-year increase, reaching the highest level since December 2023 [3]. - As of August 22, the 5-year inflation expectations in the U.S. rose to 2.48%, an increase of 6 basis points from the previous week, while the 10-year inflation expectations rose to 2.41%, up by 3 basis points [3]. European Economic Overview - The Eurozone's manufacturing PMI continued to rise in August, while the consumer confidence index for the 27 Eurozone countries saw a slight decline [4]. - Powell's dovish signals at the Jackson Hole meeting suggest a possible interest rate cut in September, alongside a revision of the long-term monetary policy strategy, moving away from a compensatory approach to a flexible inflation target [4].

消费级市场初露锋芒，工业级低空场景方兴未艾。 消费级市场方面，据智研咨询数据显示， 2024 年中国消费级无人机市场规模达 488.99 亿元，同比增长 20% 。依托无人机产业与消费市场的逐步成型，低空娱乐旅拍作为低空经济与文旅消费的融合创新，已在全国多地景区快速落地；亿航智能 EH216-S 无人 驾驶 eVTOL 载人航空器正式开启载人应用。工业级市场方面，据中商产业研究院数据显示， 2023 年中国工业无人机及其相关服务产业市场规模达 1134 亿元，相较于消费级低空市场展现出更高发展潜力。无人机巡检可大幅提高巡检效率与精度；采用"末端 + 支线"无人机航空物流模式，可为物流企业降低经 营成本 30% 以上；无人机将应急行动从被动响应转向主动防控，推动灾害防控能力的提升。 报告导读： 低空经济相关政策逐步细化，行业日渐走向成熟。随着行业规模不断扩大，布 局相关产业链的企业将率先受益，投资价值凸显。 投资建议： 我们认为，近年来低空经济相关政策逐步细化，行业日渐走向成熟。随着行业规模不断扩大，布局相关产业链的企业投资价值凸显： 1 ）整机企 业有望率先受益低空应用场景扩大； 2 ）整机上游材料与零部件企 ...

Group 1 - The article indicates that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy guidance and adjustments are trending towards a more accommodative stance, leading to significant market corrections in expectations regarding monetary policy and inflation [1] - The company maintains a tactical overweight view on A-shares due to factors such as capital market reforms, stable market liquidity, improved social attitudes and risk preferences, and optimized micro trading structures [1][2] - The outlook for U.S. equities is relatively optimistic, supported by economic resilience, corporate profitability, and marginal improvements in liquidity expectations [1][2] Group 2 - The article suggests that the tactical allocation view for U.S. Treasuries has been upgraded to benchmark due to the accommodative adjustments in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework, which is expected to benefit Treasury performance [2] - The company has also upgraded its tactical allocation view for government bonds to benchmark, anticipating that the central bank's monetary policy may take action to ensure stable liquidity in the interbank market [2] Group 3 - The article maintains a tactical benchmark view on gold, as the market's expectations for a more accommodative Federal Reserve policy are likely to lower the holding costs of gold, thus supporting its price performance [3]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the new management measures for rare earth mining and smelting separation is expected to significantly constrain supply, leading to a revaluation of smelting assets and further catalyzing the rare earth sector's market performance [1][2]. Supply Constraints - The new management measures allow only designated enterprises by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) and the Ministry of Natural Resources to conduct smelting separation, incorporating imported ores into regulation. This change may lead to the exit of some small and medium-sized smelting enterprises, resulting in substantial supply constraints [2][3]. - The processing fee for heavy rare earth minerals has surged from 0.15 million CNY per ton to 1.35 million CNY per ton since early August 2025. The theoretical net profit for smelting separation is estimated at around 14,000 CNY per ton, an increase of nearly 20,000 CNY per ton compared to the beginning of the year. This indicates a potential for further profit expansion and asset revaluation in the smelting sector [2][3]. Price Dynamics - The demand for rare earths is expected to remain strong as the peak season for electric vehicles approaches, with both domestic and international companies actively replenishing their inventories. The new management measures are anticipated to catalyze both supply and market sentiment, sustaining upward pressure on rare earth prices [3].

国泰海迪址芬 研究所 X 2025年前多年生生产 8月18、19、25、26日全天 9:00-17:40- 8月25日 (周 周期篇 刘 有色立版 联席首席分析 石油化工 煤炭开展 The Brun 女 公用事业 #分析 澳 Ein 学朋子 海 本 8 期货首席 画區館前 时间安排: 8月18、19、25、26日全天 9:00-17:40 | 8月25日周- | 周期篇 | | --- | --- | | 9:00-9:45 | 非金属类建材研究 | | 9:45-10:30 | 有色金属研究 | | 10:30-11:15 | 公用事业研究 | | 11:15-12:00 | 钢铁研究 | | 13:00-13:45 | 建筑工程研究 | | 13:45-14:30 | 基础化工研究 | | 14:30-15:15 | 交通运输研究 | | 15:15-16:00 | 煤炭开采研究 | | 16:00-16:45 | 石油化工研究 | | 16:45-17:30 | 房地产研究 | *表格更新于2025年8月7日 上海-黄浦区中山南路888号 . . . . . . 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服 ...