Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of adhering to the guidelines set forth by the Securities and Futures Investor Suitability Management Measures, particularly for clients of Guotai Junan Securities [2] - It highlights that the content is exclusively for signed clients of Guotai Junan Securities Research Services, ensuring quality and risk control [2] - The article expresses gratitude for the understanding and cooperation of readers who may not be signed clients, indicating a focus on maintaining service quality [2] Group 2 - There are no additional relevant points regarding companies or industries in the provided content [3]

法律声明 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to experience a correction in the upcoming week due to various technical and quantitative indicators suggesting a weakening market sentiment [1][2]. Market Analysis - The liquidity shock indicator for the CSI 300 index was recorded at 1.71, indicating that current market liquidity is 1.71 times higher than the average level over the past year [2]. - The PUT-CALL ratio for the SSE 50 ETF options increased to 0.80, reflecting a growing caution among investors regarding the short-term performance of the SSE 50 ETF [2]. - The five-day average turnover rates for the SSE Composite Index and Wind All A Index were 1.07% and 1.65%, respectively, indicating a decrease in trading activity [2]. Macroeconomic Factors - The onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates experienced slight declines of -0.08% and -0.1% respectively [2]. - New RMB loans in June amounted to 22,400 billion, exceeding the consensus forecast of 18,447.29 billion and the previous value of 6,200 billion [2]. - The broad money supply (M2) grew by 8.3% year-on-year, surpassing both the consensus forecast of 8.08% and the previous value of 7.9% [2]. Technical Analysis - The Wind All A Index remains above the SAR point, but the index and SAR point are now closely aligned [2]. - The moving average strength index is currently at 253, placing it in the 93.8 percentile since 2021 [2]. - The sentiment model score is 1 out of 5, indicating a decrease in market sentiment, while the trend model signal is positive and the weighted model signal is negative [2]. Performance Overview - For the week of July 14-18, the SSE 50 Index rose by 0.28%, the CSI 300 Index increased by 1.09%, the CSI 500 Index gained 1.2%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 3.17% [3]. - The overall market PE (TTM) stands at 20.4 times, which is at the 65.3 percentile since 2005 [3]. Factor Crowding Observation - The small-cap factor crowding is at a high level with a score of 1.07, while the low valuation factor crowding is at 0.36 [3]. - The industry crowding levels are relatively high in banking, comprehensive, non-ferrous metals, steel, and non-bank financial sectors, with notable increases in steel and pharmaceutical industries [3].

Group 1: Tariff Measures and Economic Impact - Tariff measures in the U.S. saw a high start but began to cool down after April 9, leading to market perceptions of TACO [2] - Actual tariff revenue growth from January to May was 6.5%, significantly lower than the theoretical increase of 14.5%, due to China's strategies to reduce high-tariff imports and ineffective implementation of tariffs on Mexico and Canada [3][4] - The economic impact of tariffs was lower than expected, with stable export volumes from China and low inflation in the U.S. despite tariffs, attributed to lower effective tax rates and weak demand in the automotive market [5] Group 2: Mid-Year Earnings Preview - The overall economic growth remains constrained, with a pre-announcement rate of 43.7% for mid-year earnings, lower than the past three years, indicating a weak profit growth of 1.0% for the entire A-share market [8] - Emerging technology sectors are showing signs of improvement, particularly in high-tech industries like equipment manufacturing, while traditional sectors are lagging [9][10] - Certain cyclical industries, such as rare metals and chemicals, are experiencing price increases, and some sectors are showing signs of recovery in earnings due to capacity reductions [10] Group 3: Hong Kong Market Analysis - The Hong Kong stock market outperformed globally in the first half of the year but has shown weakness since late June, influenced by U.S. tariff policies and currency fluctuations [13][14] - Current market heat in Hong Kong is at historical mid-levels, with technology and financial sectors showing lower heat compared to A-shares, while healthcare and consumer sectors are performing better [14] - Positive factors are accumulating for the Hong Kong market, suggesting a potential outperformance against A-shares in the second half of the year, driven by consumption policies and foreign capital inflows [15]

本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 法律声明 重要提醒 ...

Core Viewpoint - Joby and Archer are leading companies in the global eVTOL industry, with their growth paths significantly influenced by the mature aviation ecosystem in the United States, making it challenging to replicate their success in the domestic market. However, key experiences from their development are valuable for domestic eVTOL operators and investors to study and learn from [1]. Global eVTOL Industry Development - From 2017 to 2024, the number of global eVTOL companies surged to over 400, with more than 1,000 concept models. Joby and Archer have raised over $5 billion through SPAC listings, marking the beginning of a high-speed development phase in the industry. Key factors for their growth include strong financing capabilities, support from industry stakeholders, progress in airworthiness certification, and a global commercial layout. Joby has raised a total of $2.7 billion, with shareholders including Toyota, SK Telecom, and Delta Airlines, and has over $900 million in cash and short-term investments as of Q1 2025. Joby has completed over 50% of the fourth phase of FAA airworthiness certification and is expanding its market presence in the US, UK, Japan, South Korea, and the UAE. Archer has raised $4.4 billion, backed by Stellantis, Boeing, and United Airlines, with cash reserves exceeding $1 billion as of Q1 2025. Archer's airworthiness progress closely follows Joby, and it plans to launch its "Launch Edition" in 2025, with initial customers in Abu Dhabi, Ethiopia, and Indonesia, while accelerating the mass production of its ARC factory and military collaborations to achieve commercialization quickly [2]. Domestic eVTOL Industry Comparison - Domestic eVTOL manufacturers can be categorized into four types: startup companies (founders typically have aviation backgrounds), traditional general aviation companies (aircraft manufacturers entering eVTOL development), automotive companies (automakers entering eVTOL development), and academic institutions (industry incubation based on university technology). There is a significant gap between domestic and international leading companies. The differences include: - Technological lag: International technologies have converged on tilt-rotor designs, with Joby being the only full tilt-rotor model, while domestic tilt-rotor designs are mostly semi-tilt-rotor. International companies predominantly use piloted modes, while domestic companies are pursuing a dual-track approach of "manned + unmanned," primarily focusing on unmanned operations. Transitioning from "scenic trial" to true "commercial aviation" for unmanned eVTOLs requires not only policy support but also a broad increase in social acceptance, which is approached with cautious optimism. - Resource endowment: Although domestic eVTOL companies are frequently raising funds, their overall scale is significantly smaller than that of international leaders like Joby and Archer. Most domestic companies are startups, characterized by "dispersed, shallow, and phased" industrial resource endowments, with relatively weak integration capabilities in the supply chain, except for automotive manufacturers [3]. Business Logic Divergence - Joby and Archer have rapidly certified and established global standards, while domestic companies primarily focus on CAAC certification. Global commercialization is closely tied to international airworthiness certification, and domestic eVTOL companies are still in the early stages of catching up to Joby and Archer. Key experiences from Joby and Archer's growth paths that are worth emulating for the domestic eVTOL industry include: - Strengthening vertical integration of the industry chain to build a "technology + manufacturing + scenario" collaborative ecosystem - Accelerating mutual recognition of international airworthiness standards - Gradually advancing multi-rotor, compound wing, and tilt-rotor routes - Promoting military-civilian integration [4].

报告导读： 长端合约（ T/TL ）价差倒挂后回正，反映预期与现实再统一，投机力量减 弱；短端合约（ TS/TF ）倒挂呈现常态化，宜聚焦基差套利与 IRR 正套机会。 从理论定价看，国债期货跨期价包括 CTD 券价差与基差之差两部分，其中后者可拆分为持有收益差和净 基差之差，具体而言： ① CTD 券净价之差：近远月合约最便宜可交割券（ CTD 券）的净价差异，受可 交割券范围切换影响，通常与行情无关。②持有收益差：反映资金成本与票息差的持有收益差异，主要受 资金利率预期驱动；③净基差之差：衡量两合约交割期权价值差异，实际交易中主要由市场情绪和行情预 期主导。净基差是扣除持有收益后的基差剩余部分，反映的是交割期权的价值。 长端国债期货合约（ T 、 TL ）跨期价差回正说明什么？ 2023 年以来， 长端国债期货跨期价差基本为 正值，但这一情况在 2024 年末至 2025 年初发生了变化， T 、 TL 合约跨期价差两次走向深度倒挂， 其中 2024 年 11 月中旬主因主力合约切换在即，多头力量集中体现在远月合约，而 2025 年 2 月则是 由于 "谨慎"现实与"乐观"预期的共存。但 2509 合约成 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current "anti-involution" movement differs significantly from the supply-side reforms of 2016, focusing on a "time-for-space" strategy rather than a one-size-fits-all approach, with a pragmatic impact on the coal industry, indicating a fundamental turning point [1][3]. Group 1: Anti-Involution Strategy - The "anti-involution" concept is central to the new round of supply-side reforms, aiming to regulate low-price disorderly competition and encourage companies to enhance product quality, rather than simply eliminating outdated production capacity [1][3]. - The essence of the "anti-involution" approach is to stabilize price bottoms by alleviating chaotic competition, contrasting with the more drastic measures of 2016 that had significant economic impacts [1][3]. Group 2: Coal Industry Insights - The coal industry is currently experiencing a significant downturn, with over 50% of coal enterprises reporting losses, particularly in coking coal, highlighting the need for more mines to reduce production under the "anti-involution" policy [3]. - Supply-side data indicates a noticeable decline in national production from April to May, driven by economic factors leading to spontaneous production cuts, alongside a contraction in imports, suggesting a stable yet decreasing total supply for the year [3]. - Demand-side observations show a recovery in electricity consumption growth rates, with residential electricity usage increasing by 7% and 9.6% in April and May, respectively, indicating a potential turning point for overall electricity demand growth [3].

报告导读： 2025 年上半年行业迎来风平浪静的半年，无风险时代确立，拉长久期将是接 下来的主旋律，相信未来。 确定性的刚性支出减少、确定性的行业信用风险下降，确立无风险时代。 上半年，地产开发投资额同比减 少 11.2% ，仅 4.7 万亿元，若保持这个减少幅度，全年将不足 9 万亿元的刚性支出，而且，这还是在因 为"好房子"标准带来的拿地超预期的情况下完成的。 那么，实际的支出下降更明显，竣工面积增速（ -14.8% ）可以作为参考。 需要注意的是，地产投资下降并不意味着投资失速，相反，这代表的是信用风 险的下降，而在实物开支方面，则有城市更新做对冲，预计全年城市更新的进展将提速，对冲地产开支的 减少。展望下半年，在不考虑拿地的情况下，仅以刚性支出来看，地产的支出压力将进一步下降，全行业 进入确定性的无风险时代。 销售不继续恶化是前提假设， 6 月有走差迹象，但考虑到需求侧政策仍然有发力空间，预计全年仍然是个 位数的缓幅下降。 相比于房企侧，需求侧是今年的政策发力点，目的是止跌回稳，同时，政策空间也更 大，例如当前按揭贷款利率仍然有下调的空间。然而需要注意的是，尽管上半年销售金额同比只下降了 5.5% ， ...

Core Viewpoint - Solid-state batteries represent the next generation of high-performance batteries, with short-term prospects for oxide semi-solid batteries and long-term potential for sulfide all-solid-state batteries, characterized by high material flexibility and high equipment certainty [1][8]. Group 1: Industry Progress and Market Outlook - The overseas development of solid-state batteries is progressing steadily, with product performance continuously improving. Battery manufacturers and automakers are collaborating on technology licensing, production line construction, and road testing, with mass production timelines set for 2026-2030 [4][12]. - Solid Power and Factorial Energy have entered vehicle testing phases, while QuantumScape and Samsung SDI have delivered samples, all targeting mass production between 2026 and 2030 [4][6]. - The solid-state battery market is expected to reach a shipment volume of 614.1 GWh by 2030, with a market size exceeding 250 billion yuan [14]. Group 2: Technological Developments - Solid-state batteries are characterized by high energy density and safety, with energy densities ranging from 301 to 560 Wh/kg for various products. For instance, Factorial Energy's Solstice battery supports a range of 1000 km and fast charging capabilities [6][14]. - The industry is witnessing a shift towards sulfide technology, with major players focusing on this route due to its potential advantages over existing technologies [8][24]. - The solid-state battery production process involves significant technological barriers, with new equipment expected to accelerate production as companies enter pilot testing phases [9][38]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Companies that are early in solid-state battery development and have experience in large-scale production are likely to benefit from the growing market [20][41]. - The solid-state battery sector is expected to attract significant investment, with government support and policy initiatives aimed at accelerating research and development [21][41]. - The collaboration between automakers and battery manufacturers is expected to drive commercial progress, with several companies already initiating vehicle testing and production plans [12][17].