高盛称，推动经济"重新加速"的因素包括：宽松金融环境、财政刺激预期、AI资本支出及消费者基础稳固。这将对美联储货币政策路 径产生重要影响，关键在于新任美联储主席是否会在经济健康时降息至中性水平以下，以及能否在必要时加息应对过热。 9月28日，高盛分析师Cosimo Codacci-Pisanelli和Rikin Shah在最新报告中称，美国经济面临重新加速的风险正在上升， 这一预期 建立在劳动力市场韧性、财政刺激预期以及宽松金融环境等多重利好因素基础之上。 该行分析师认为，当前美国经济在多项指标上表现强劲，本周公布的首次申请失业救济人数数据令人鼓舞，而高盛全球投资研究部 门预计第三季度美国GDP增长率将达到健康的2.6%（环比年化率）。 这为明年上半年的增长提供了有力支撑。 据高盛称，其美国宏观经济意外指数（US MAP surprise index）近期大幅飙升，本周的初请失业金人数也令人鼓舞。该行全球投资 研究部（GIR）预计，美国第三季度GDP环比年化增长率将达到2.6%的健康水平。 报告列举了推动这一风险的关键因素： 宽松的金融条件： 风险资产的良好表现、美联储未来的降息预期以及美元走弱，共同营造了宽 ...

沃尔玛CEO直言"AI将改变每一个工作岗位，这一点非常明确"，公司计划未来三年维持210万员工总 数不变，但岗位构成将重大调整。沃尔玛已在高层会议中全面评估AI对员工队伍的影响，通过仓库自 动化削减部分岗位，同时新增AI相关职位。 私营雇主沃尔玛正面临AI带来的劳动力变革挑战。该公司高管明确表示，AI技术将淘汰部分工作岗位 并重塑整个员工队伍，这标志着大型企业对AI就业影响态度的重大转变。 9月26日，据报道，沃尔玛首席执行官Doug McMillon本周发表了迄今为止大公司CEO关于AI对就业 影响最直接的评估之一。他表示： "AI将改变每一个工作岗位，这一点非常明确。也许世界上存在AI不会改变的工作，但我想不出来。" 作为应对策略， 沃尔玛计划在未来三年保持约210万全球员工的总体规模不变 。该公司首席人事官 Donna Morris表示，虽 然员工总数保持稳定，但岗位构成将发生重大变化 。 这一表态反映了企业领导者讨论AI技术人力成本方式的快速转变。包括福特、摩根大通和亚马逊在内 的多家公司已开始直接预测AI相关的裁员，并建议其他雇主为员工队伍变化做好准备。 全面审视AI对岗位的冲击 报道称，沃尔玛高管 ...

Core Points - The meeting between President Trump and the four congressional leaders is crucial for budget negotiations as the government funding deadline approaches on September 30 [2][4] - The healthcare policy has become a central issue causing a stalemate between the two parties, with Trump insisting that Democrats must abandon their demands related to healthcare subsidies [5][6] - The threat of a government shutdown poses uncertainty for financial markets and economic activities, potentially affecting consumer spending and economic confidence [7][8] Group 1: Meeting Details - President Trump will meet with Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer, House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries, House Speaker Mike Johnson, and Senate Majority Leader John Thune on September 29 [2][3] - This meeting is the first formal negotiation between Trump and Democratic leaders before the funding deadline [2][4] - The urgency of the meeting highlights the critical nature of budget negotiations as the deadline approaches [3] Group 2: Political Stalemate - Democrats are determined to avoid a government shutdown and address the Republican healthcare crisis, emphasizing the urgency of reaching a bipartisan spending agreement [5] - Republican leaders maintain that the short-term funding bill should not include additional policy provisions, further complicating negotiations [6] Group 3: Economic Implications - A government shutdown could lead to unpaid leave for hundreds of thousands of federal employees and the closure of non-essential services, impacting economic data releases [8] - Trump's prediction of a high likelihood of a government shutdown has heightened market concerns regarding the political deadlock in Washington [8]

Core Viewpoint - The construction boom of AI data centers is driving a significant increase in electricity demand, leading to rising electricity prices and creating a dual challenge of "power scarcity" and "community opposition" in the U.S. [1][3][5] Group 1: Electricity Price Surge - The capacity price in the PJM interconnection has skyrocketed from $2.2 billion in the 2023/2024 delivery year to $16.1 billion in the 2026/2027 delivery year [7] - Capacity prices in the PJM "rest of market" region surged from $29 per megawatt-day in the 2024/2025 delivery year to $269 per megawatt-day in the 2025/2026 delivery year, marking an increase of over five times within a year [7][8] - This price surge has resulted in average electricity bills for residents in the PJM region increasing by 18% to 25% [8][10] Group 2: Community and Regulatory Response - At least 12 states in the U.S. are considering new policies to ensure data centers bear the costs of their electricity consumption to avoid passing these costs onto consumers [3][11] - Local policymakers are under pressure to create special rate structures that internalize the costs associated with data centers, indicating a shift in policy focus [11][12] - Community opposition, driven by concerns over rising electricity costs, water resource consumption, and noise pollution, is becoming a significant barrier to data center projects [13][14] Group 3: Energy Solutions - Solar and energy storage technologies accounted for 80% of the new electricity generation capacity in the U.S. in 2024, making them key solutions for meeting the rising electricity demand [4][16] - Natural gas is expected to play a crucial role in providing stable power in the short term, while nuclear energy is viewed as a long-term solution beyond the 2030s [18][19] - Major tech companies like Microsoft, Amazon, and Google are exploring agreements with nuclear energy firms to directly supply power to their data centers [19]

英伟达通过庞大现金流塑造AI生态系统，在数据中心融资困难时充当"最后担保人"角色。这种疯狂投资源于两大驱动力：巨额现金储备和对技术突破可 能绕过其芯片的深层恐惧，试图将关键参与者深度绑定。 在AI时代，英伟达不再只是卖芯片的公司，而正在变成一位操控资金流、影响技术方向、稳定产业生态的"央行式"存在。 9月27日，科技媒体The Information发布了一篇深度报道，详细分析了英伟达公司及其CEO黄仁勋在AI经济中扮演的独特角色，揭示了英伟达如何通过 大规模投资和战略布局，逐步成为AI领域的"政府"般存在。 文章通过深入调研和采访多位业内人士，包括英伟达高管和知情人士，展现了这家芯片巨头如何运用其庞大的现金流来塑造整个AI生态系统。报道指 出， 英伟达的投资策略已经超越了传统的商业合作范畴，开始具备了类似政府调控经济的特征。 文章认为，英伟达的投资规模和覆盖范围已经达到了前所未有的程度。从数据中心建设到AI模型开发，从初创公司孵化到大型项目融资，英伟达的触角 几乎遍及AI产业的每个角落。 这种全方位的参与使得它在AI经济中获得了类似"央行"的地位和影响力。 文章特别强调了英伟达疯狂投资背后的驱动因素——对未 ...

摩根大通认为，季节性疲软、股市反弹幅度过大、市场长期没有回调、散户情绪过热以及美联储宽松预期已被市场消化等因素可能为市场带来短期下行压 力，但从现在到年底，美股进一步上涨的可能性依然大于下跌，有望在11月前加速升至7000点，年底前的任何回调都值得抄底。 摩根大通发布最新展望，认为尽管标普500指数有望在年底前冲击7000点大关，但投资者在享受这轮潜在涨势前，需警惕一系列可能导致市场短期回调 的下行风险。 近日，摩根大通市场情报（Market Intel）团队在其报告中指出， 美股在下周可能经历温和的进一步下行，但此后将进入"决胜时刻"（gametime）， 并有望在11月前加速升至7000点。 分析师Jonathan Schlegel指出，季节性疲软、股市反弹幅度过大、市场长期没有回调、散户情绪过热以及美联储宽松预期已被市场消化等因素的担 忧，都可能为市场带来短期下行压力。 摩根大通团队详细列举了可能引发市场短期回调的五大关键风险，投资者需要密切关注： 不过，报告同时补充表示，从现在到年底，美股进一步上涨的可能性依然大于下跌。该团队维持其"战术性看涨"观点，并建议投资者抄底任何在年底前 出现的回调。 五大短 ...

Core Viewpoint - Aging power grids in Europe and North America have become critical bottlenecks for AI development and energy security, necessitating urgent upgrades to meet rising demands [1][3][4] Group 1: Aging Infrastructure - The average operational lifespan of European power grids is 50 years, while North American grids average 40 years, indicating that many are nearing the end of their designed operational life [3][4] - Nine out of thirteen U.S. electricity markets are already experiencing tight supply conditions, with projections indicating that nearly all will face similar pressures by 2030 [5][6] Group 2: AI and Energy Security - The rapid development of AI is placing power grids at the center of energy security, as data centers, which are crucial for AI infrastructure, require significant electricity [6][7] - The interdependence of the power grid, AI, and national defense makes upgrading the grid a national security priority, transforming it into a strategic issue rather than just an infrastructure concern [6][7] Group 3: Copper Demand Surge - The demand for copper is expected to surge due to the need for power grid upgrades, with projections indicating that by 2030, approximately 60% of global copper demand growth will be driven by electricity infrastructure [7][8] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the price of copper will rise to $10,750 per ton by 2027, supported by the anticipated increase in demand from power grid and infrastructure projects [8]

Core Viewpoint - Tether is seeking significant external funding, potentially reaching a valuation of $500 billion, which would solidify its position as one of the most valuable private companies globally [3][4]. Group 1: Investment Details - SoftBank and Ark Investment Management are in early discussions to invest in Tether, marking Tether's largest external financing attempt to date [3][4]. - Tether plans to raise between $15 billion to $20 billion by selling approximately 3% of its shares through a private placement [3][4]. Group 2: Company Background - Tether's primary product is USDT, a digital asset pegged to the US dollar, allowing users to transfer funds outside traditional banking systems [4]. - Tether has accumulated significant wealth by investing its reserve funds in cash-like assets, such as US Treasury bonds, and earning interest [4]. Group 3: Leadership and Valuation Impact - Tether is led by CEO Paolo Ardoino and co-founder Giancarlo Devasini, who is also the largest shareholder [5]. - If Tether's valuation reaches $500 billion, Devasini's stake could be valued at approximately $224 billion [5]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Ark Investment Management has previously invested in stablecoins, including Tether's main competitor, Circle Internet Group, which has a market cap of around $74 billion [5]. - Tether's market cap for user-held tokens is approximately $173.5 billion, significantly higher than Circle's [5].

瑞银分析师Joe Dickinson在研报中表示，考虑到大型制药公司未来五年已承诺的巨额投资，大多数企业可获得关税豁免，影响可能介于模糊和微不足 道之间。分析师预计，这一政策更多具有象征意义，旨在推动制药业回流美国，而非真正打击进口药品贸易。 特朗普周四晚间宣布对进口药品征收100%关税后，瑞银等投行纷纷告诉客户，这一政策的实际影响或将微乎其微。分析师指出，由于大型制药公司已 在美国投资数百亿美元建设生产设施，大多数企业可获得关税豁免。 当地时间9月25日，美国总统特朗普在其社交媒体"真实社交"宣布，自10月1日起，美国将对多类进口产品实施新一轮高额关税，其中对专利及品牌药品 加征100%关税。 大型药企已投资数百亿美元，影响可能微不足道 瑞银分析师Joe Dickinson在研报中表示，考虑到大型制药公司未来五年已承诺的巨额投资，市场对100%产品关税实际影响的预期可能仍然较低。 具体投资数据显示，阿斯利康承诺投资500亿美元，罗氏500亿美元，葛兰素史克300亿美元，诺华230亿美元，UCB 20亿美元，赛诺菲200亿美元。 Vontobel分析师Sibylle Bischofberger Frick指出 ...

Core Viewpoint - Electronic Arts (EA) is in talks for a potential privatization deal valued at approximately $50 billion, which could become the largest leveraged buyout in history, surpassing the previous record of $45 billion set in 2007 [3][13][14]. Group 1: Transaction Details - The deal is led by a consortium including Silver Lake Partners, Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund (PIF), and Jared Kushner's investment firm, with JPMorgan responsible for financing arrangements [4][5]. - If finalized, this transaction would not only be the largest of 2025 but also set a new record for leveraged buyouts [3][13]. - EA's stock surged nearly 15% to a historical high of $193.35, raising the company's market capitalization to approximately $48 billion following the news [5]. Group 2: Financial and Market Context - The gaming industry has faced a slowdown after a period of explosive growth during the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to significant job cuts across the sector, including at EA, which has conducted three major layoffs in 2023 [17]. - EA's performance has been volatile, with its latest football game, "EA Sports FC 25," underperforming, but recent reports indicate that the overall product portfolio has delivered better-than-expected results [18]. - The upcoming release of "Battlefield 6" on October 10 is highly anticipated, as it will compete directly with Microsoft's "Call of Duty" series in the shooting game market [19]. Group 3: Consortium Strength - Silver Lake Partners manages approximately $110 billion in assets and has existing investments in the gaming sector, including a stake in Unity Software, a major client of EA [7][8]. - The Saudi PIF holds about 10% of EA's shares and has been increasing its investment profile, including the establishment of the Savvy Gaming Division for gaming and esports acquisitions [9][10]. - Jared Kushner's Affinity Partners, founded in 2021, has received backing from investors including the PIF [12].