花旗认为，AI基础设施投资正急剧加速，将2026年AI资本开支上调至4900亿美元。与2000年互联网泡沫的关键区别在于，本轮投资有真实的企业级需 求作为"出口"进行价值验证。英伟达与OpenAI等巨额合作项目，以及AI算力需求呈指数级增长，驱动了投资狂潮。 花旗在周二的最新研报中表示，随着生成式人工智能需求持续超过供给，以及谷歌产品迭代加速，该行上调了对谷歌2026年及之后的资本开支预测。 花旗预计，谷歌2026年资本开支将达到约1110亿美元，高于2025年的860亿美元。根据最新测算，2024至2029年的资本开支复合年增长率（CAGR） 将达26%。 花旗认为，这一增长背后是谷歌人工智能产品和服务在核心搜索和云业务中的更大规模应用。目前，Gemini的token使用量持续飙升，已突破每月1万 亿次，比今年4月翻了一番。谷歌云（GCP）客户数量季度环比增长28%，积压订单加速增长，Gemini也正驱动更多谷歌核心产品。 花旗指出，谷歌的资本开支正推动更快的产品开发周期，这将为公司带来持续增长。 尽管搜索领域竞争依然激烈，但花旗认为谷歌执行力更强，因此 维持"买入"评级，目标价280美元。 谷歌母公司Al ...

Core Insights - OpenAI has launched an instant checkout feature allowing users to purchase items directly within ChatGPT conversations, in collaboration with Etsy and Shopify, targeting U.S. users [1][2][7] - The feature is expected to create new sales channels for the e-commerce industry and provide OpenAI with alternative revenue streams beyond traditional subscription models [4][7] E-commerce Impact - Over one million Shopify merchants, including well-known brands like Glossier and SKIMS, will join the platform, enhancing the product offerings available through ChatGPT [2][12] - Etsy's stock surged nearly 16% and Shopify's stock rose over 6% following the announcement, indicating positive market sentiment towards the collaboration [5][12] User Experience - The instant checkout feature is available to ChatGPT Plus, Pro, and free users, allowing seamless purchases without redirecting to external websites [3][10] - OpenAI will charge fees for transactions completed through ChatGPT, but these fees will not affect the purchase price for users [3][12] Future Developments - OpenAI plans to introduce a multi-item shopping cart feature and expand the geographic coverage of the instant checkout functionality [4][12] - The technology framework for this feature is developed in partnership with Stripe, which also supports payment processing for ChatGPT subscriptions [13][14] Market Potential - ChatGPT's user base exceeded 7 million weekly active users in August, with a significant portion of inquiries related to shopping and consumption, highlighting the potential for converting user engagement into commercial transactions [9][8] - The integration of ChatGPT into e-commerce platforms like Etsy and Shopify provides a new channel to reach a vast pool of potential consumers [15][16]

随着金价突破历史新高，美国财政部2.615亿盎司的黄金储备价值已超1万亿美元，但其官方账面价值 仍固定在1973年的每盎司42.22美元（约110亿美元）。若按市价重估，将为美国财政部释放约9900 亿美元资金。在政府面临债务上限约束的背景下，这笔资金无疑颇具诱惑力。 随着金价飙升并刷新历史新高，美国财政部持有的黄金储备市场价值已首次突破1万亿美元大关。 周一，金价一度突破每盎司3824.5美元，今年累计涨幅高达45%，推动了美国这笔全球最大黄金储备 的价值攀升。涨势背后，是投资者在贸易战、地缘政治紧张局势以及对美国潜在政府融资危机的日益 担忧中寻求安全庇护。此外，黄金交易所交易基金（ETF）的持续资金流入和美联储重启降息周期也 为金价上涨提供了强劲动力。 不过， 美国政府资产负债表上的黄金官方价值仍固定在110亿美元出头，这一估值基于国会1973年设 定的每盎司42.22美元价格。 两者之间的巨大差距意味着美国黄金储备的市场价值是账面价值的 90多 倍。 若按当前市价重估黄金储备， 将为美国财政部释放约9900亿美元资金 。今年早些时候，美国财政部 长贝森特的一句即兴评论曾引发市场猜测，认为美国政府可能将其 ...

面对高估值，华尔街正形成新的共识，认为应抛弃传统的市盈率认知。分析师指出，标普500指数的估值中枢已结构性上移，是由于美国经济衰退减少、 向技术或服务业转型、利润稳定性提高等多重因素支撑。当前高估值视或为"新常态"，而非期待其回归"逝去的时代"。 越来越多华尔街分析师建议，投资者或许应该抛开对传统市盈率的固有认知。美国银行的策略师上周就表达了类似观点， 认为应将当前的高估值视 为"新常态"，而非期待其均值回归到"逝去的时代"。 分析师指出，标普500指数的估值中枢已结构性上移，是由于美国经济衰退减少、向技术或服务业 转型、利润稳定性提高等多重因素支撑。 这呼应了资深华尔街策略师Jim Paulsen近期的分析。Paulsen的分析显示， 标普500指数的估值中枢在过去几十年持续上移，他认为这削弱了将当前人 工智能狂潮与上世纪90年代末互联网泡沫直接类比的悲观论调。 这一转变引出了两个核心问题：投资者应如何判断一个持续移动的估值目标？它是否会继续以相似的速度进入"未知领域"？这场关于估值范式的辩论， 正深刻影响着投资者对未来市场回报的预期。 估值中枢的结构性上移 数据显示，美国股市的估值范围在本世纪已发生显著飞 ...

Core Viewpoint - Major AI companies like Google DeepMind, Meta, and Nvidia are shifting their R&D focus towards "world models" to gain an edge in the race towards machine "superintelligence" [1][3][7] Group 1: Market Potential - The potential market size for "world models" is estimated to be as high as $100 trillion, encompassing sectors such as autonomous driving, robotics, and manufacturing [1][3][4] Group 2: Technological Developments - Recent advancements in "world models" have been highlighted by various AI companies, with Google DeepMind releasing Genie 3, which generates video frame by frame, allowing for scalable AI training without real-world consequences [5] - Meta is training its V-JEPA model using raw video content to mimic children's passive learning through observation, with ongoing tests on robots [5] - Nvidia's CEO has stated that the next major growth phase for the company will come from "physical AI," leveraging its Omniverse platform for simulations to support expansion into robotics [5] Group 3: Applications and Innovations - "World models" are being applied in the entertainment industry, with startups like World Labs developing models that generate 3D environments from single images, and Runway creating game scenes that better understand physical laws [6] Group 4: Industry Challenges - The shift towards "world models" is driven by the perception that large language models (LLMs) are reaching their performance ceiling, with significant investments from major companies [7][8] - Despite the promising outlook, building these models requires vast amounts of physical world data and computational power, which remains a significant technical challenge [9] - Experts believe that achieving human-level intelligence in machines driven by next-generation AI systems may still take up to a decade [9]

当地 时间 2 0 2 5 年 9 月 2 9 日 清早 ， Genmab 官宣 将 收购 Merus N.V. （ 以下简称 为 " Merus " ） 。 根据协议，Genmab 将 以每股97.00美元的现金收购Merus的全部股份， 交易价值 约80亿美元 。这是 Genmab自成立以来最大的一笔收购（ 去年收购普方生物总价为18 亿美元） 。 图片来源 ： Genmab 官网 Merus最早创立于2003年，总部位于荷兰 ， 核心 资产 是 一 款 EGFR / LGR5双抗 —— petosemtamab （ M C L A - 1 5 8 ） 。 2 0 2 5 年 A S C O 上 ， Merus公布 了 petosemtamab 联合 K 药 对比 K 药 单药 一线 治 疗 局部晚期头颈部鳞状细胞癌 （HNSCC） 的 I I 期 临床数据 。 具体 来看 ， 这项 I I 期 研 究 共 纳入 4 5 名 局部 晚期 HNSCC 患者 。 最 终 4 3 名 可 评估 患者 数据 显示 ， 联合 用药 组 经实体瘤反应评估标准 的 总体缓解率 （ O R R ） 达 6 3 % （27 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report by analyst Guo Mingqi indicates a downward adjustment of approximately 20% in the shipment target for the Xiaomi 17 series, originally set at 10 million units, primarily due to the strong performance of Apple's iPhone 17 standard model in the Chinese market [1][3][5]. Group 1: Shipment Adjustments - The total shipment target for the Xiaomi 17 series has been revised down to potentially below 8 million units, compared to the 15 series' approximately 8 million units [3][4]. - Initially, Xiaomi expected the standard model to account for 50-55% of total sales, but actual sales have only reached about 15-20% [4]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The strong sales of the iPhone 17 standard model in China have been a key factor in the downward revision of Xiaomi's shipment targets [5]. - Xiaomi's CEO Lei Jun had previously claimed that the Xiaomi 17 series would surpass the iPhone 17 in many aspects, indicating a direct competition strategy [5][16]. Group 3: Market Reaction - Following the report, Xiaomi's stock in Hong Kong fell by 2.6% [7]. - Despite the shipment target adjustment, Xiaomi remains optimistic about the sales performance of the Xiaomi 17 series, with record-breaking sales reported shortly after launch [12][13]. Group 4: Long-term Strategy - Lei Jun emphasized that Xiaomi is transitioning from an opportunity-driven internet company to a mission-driven technology company, planning to invest 200 billion yuan in R&D over the next five years to compete with and potentially surpass Apple [8][10]. - Guo Mingqi also highlighted that Xiaomi will face dual pressure from both Apple and Huawei in the mid-to-high-end market by 2026 [11].

Hartnett认为，当前美股科技股的信用债息差处于18年来的最低点，意味着AI泡沫尚未达到危险水平；美元贬值是驱动 本轮资产价格上涨的核心动力，一旦美元指数出现"无序"反弹并升破102的关键水平，可能导致"做空美元"的共识交易 被集中平仓。 AI泡沫行情到头了吗？美银认为尚未触及"危险水平"，市场目前真正的风险在于美元反弹。 尽管市场对潜在泡沫的讨论日渐升温，但美银策略师Michael Hartnett在其最新报告中指出， 科技股的信用债息差正处 于多年低点，这意味着由AI驱动的科技股涨势尚未达到危险水平。 Hartnett进一步警告称，投资者当前需要警惕的直接风险并非泡沫破裂，而是美元的意外走强，当前市场的最大软肋 是"做空美元"的共识交易。 一旦美元指数出现"无序"反弹并升破102的关键水平，可能会触发"风险规避"式的集体平 仓。 尽管如此，Hartnett认为，在通胀和利率走高的2020年代，大规模的政府债务和持续的货币贬值仍是长期趋势。这意 味着，虽然美元短期存在反弹风险，但其长期贬值的基础并未改变，这也是黄金等资产具备结构性支撑的原因。 信用债息差显示AI尚未形成信贷泡沫 这种全面的资金流入表明， ...

摩根大通发现，2025年上半年，全球资本支出实现了11%的年化增长，与此同时发达市场三季度的新增就业可能仅同比微增0.4%。在美国过去60年的经 济扩张周期中，这种资本支出加速与就业增长停滞并存的局面从未出现过。 沃尔玛CEO近日表态称，"AI将改变每一个工作岗位"，公司计划未来三年维持210万员工总数不变，但岗位构成将重大调整。 据追风交易台消息，摩根大通在其近日发布的研报中表示， 2025年上半年，全球资本支出实现了11%的年化增长，并且这一强劲势头在本季度得以延 续。与此形成鲜明对比的是，发达市场的劳动力需求"步履蹒跚"，三季度新增就业可能仅同比微增0.4%。 报告显示，针对这一现象，乐观的观点认为，这标志着新技术成功落地，生产力大幅提升，经济将迎来一场"无就业复苏"；而悲观的看法则警告，这可 能只是一个狭窄的、由科技驱动的资本开支泡沫，一旦破灭，叠加商业信心的普遍谨慎，恐将导致劳动力收入疲软，并最终引发全面的需求萎缩。 据摩根大通测算， 在企业设备支出方面，全球资本开支继2024年仅温和增长4%后，在2025年上半年飙升至10.2%的年化增长率， 且这一趋势是广泛 的，几乎所有地区的企业设备支出都出现 ...

Core Viewpoint - Genmab A/S is in advanced negotiations to acquire Merus NV, a Dutch biotechnology company focused on innovative cancer therapies, which could be announced in the coming days [1][26]. Group 1: Company Overview - Genmab, headquartered in Copenhagen, has a market capitalization of approximately $18.6 billion, while Merus has a market capitalization of about $5.2 billion [4][12]. - If completed, this acquisition would mark Genmab's largest transaction in its history, emphasizing its commitment to strengthening its oncology pipeline [12]. Group 2: Merus and Its Innovations - Merus has attracted interest from several large pharmaceutical companies due to its experimental cancer drug, petosemtamab, which has shown promising clinical trial data in significantly reducing tumors in head and neck cancer patients [9][10]. - The combination of petosemtamab with Merck's Keytruda has demonstrated better efficacy than existing standard therapies, enhancing investor confidence and boosting Merus's stock price [9][10]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - The acquisition of Merus could provide Genmab with a strategic advantage in the competitive immuno-oncology market, expanding its drug portfolio and increasing collaboration opportunities with pharmaceutical giants [12]. - This move reflects a broader trend in the biotechnology sector, where established companies actively seek mergers and acquisitions to acquire breakthrough technologies and promising drug candidates [12].