泡泡玛特港股盘中一度暴跌9%，为逾一个月最大跌幅，股价承压之际，做空力量持续集聚。据标普全球数据，截至上周四，泡泡玛特的卖空 股份已升至流通股的6.3%，创2023年8月以来最高水平。分析预计，泡泡玛特本季度美国销售增速将放缓至500%以下，此前预测增长 1200%。 光大证券国际策略师Kenny Ng表示，投资者对泡泡玛特销售势头放缓存在担忧，同时卖方的一些谨慎观点也打压了股价。 从增长1200%降至不足500%？美国销售增速或大幅放缓 美国市场表现成为焦点，此前泡泡玛特在三季度财报中披露美国销售同比增长超1200%，令投资者对海外扩张充满期待。 但最新迹象显示增长动能正在减弱。伯恩斯坦驻香港亚洲消费股分析师Melinda Hu指出，股价疲软"很可能是受11月份北美线下销售趋势下 滑推动"，她预计公司本季度美国销售增速将放缓至500%以下。 晨星分析师Jeff Zhang警告，潜在的美国销售疲软可能削弱市场对泡泡玛特增长的信心，海外销售势头此前一直是投资者紧密追踪的关键指 标。 泡泡玛特股价周一遭遇重挫，投资者对这家潮玩制造商在美国市场的增长势头产生疑虑。在公司此前公布美国市场超预期增长后，市场正密 切关注 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reaffirms that AI-driven investment demand will continue to grow, leading to an expansion in the credit market, with total investment-grade bond issuance expected to surge to $2.25 trillion, while credit spreads will only widen modestly [1][3]. Group 1: AI Investment and Credit Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley predicts that U.S. investment-grade bond issuance will reach $2.25 trillion in 2026, a 25% year-over-year increase, with net issuance expected to hit $1 trillion, reflecting a 60% year-over-year growth [7]. - The firm believes that credit markets will be the primary funding channel for the next wave of AI investments, which are expected to be relatively insensitive to macroeconomic conditions such as interest rates and economic growth [4]. - There is a divergence in client feedback regarding the growth expectations from AI capital expenditures, with some questioning why higher growth is not anticipated [5]. Group 2: Factors Stabilizing Credit Spreads - Morgan Stanley argues that several factors will help stabilize credit spreads despite the anticipated surge in bond issuance, including a majority of AI-related issuances coming from high-quality issuers (AA-AAA rated) [8]. - Continued policy easing, with expectations of three more rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, is also seen as a stabilizing factor [9]. - The firm anticipates a mild economic re-acceleration and ongoing demand from yield-seeking investors will further anchor credit spreads [9]. Group 3: Central Bank Policy Divergence - The Federal Reserve's policy path remains a focal point of market debate, with Morgan Stanley expecting a rate cut in December, despite mixed signals from the labor market [10]. - The firm also predicts that the European Central Bank will implement two additional rate cuts by 2026, contradicting the ECB's president's assertion that the anti-inflation process has ended [10]. Group 4: Yield Curve Dynamics - Morgan Stanley defines 2026 as a "transition year" for global interest rates, moving from synchronized tightening to asynchronous normalization, with a consensus on the yield curve maintaining a range-bound pattern [11]. - There is ongoing debate regarding the nature of the yield curve steepening, whether it will be driven by falling rates (bull steepening) or rising long-term rates (bear steepening) [11].

Core Viewpoint - The market is pricing in a 95% probability of a rate cut in December, diminishing the significance of Fed Chair Powell's hawkish statements as he approaches a "lame duck" status [1][2][5] Group 1: Market Reactions and Predictions - If the market reacts "honestly" to a hawkish rate cut, it could lead to a liquidity reversal, weakening bonds and stocks while strengthening the dollar, putting pressure on tech and growth stocks [2][8] - Conversely, if the market ignores the Fed's hawkish signals, it may be driven by the "Hassett trade," leading to a steepening yield curve and a positive outlook for cyclical stocks, while the dollar may weaken [2][8] Group 2: Policy Coordination and Implications - The market may underestimate the degree of dovish coordination among the Treasury, the Fed, and the White House to achieve the "3-3-3 goal" (3% economic growth, 3% short-term yields, and 10-year Treasury yields in the 3% range) [2][3] - The upcoming appointment of a new Fed Chair, likely Kevin Hassett, is expected to reshape market expectations regarding monetary policy paths through unprecedented coordination between fiscal and monetary policies [3][10] Group 3: Key Figures and Their Roles - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin faces pressure as his fate is closely tied to the Fed's policy direction, with President Trump emphasizing the need for quick action on rate cuts [9][10] - Hassett is seen as a strong candidate for the Fed Chair position, with a commitment to lower rates and a unique ability to translate Trump's economic rhetoric into coherent policy [10][11] Group 4: Potential Risks and Reforms - There are concerns that aggressive rate cuts could lead to a loss of confidence in the Fed's commitment to controlling inflation, potentially resulting in a bond market sell-off [10] - Secretary Mnuchin has called for comprehensive reforms within the Fed, suggesting that future regional Fed presidents should have residency requirements to ensure better representation [11]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. is expected to close the year with a 3% real GDP growth despite the government shutdown, indicating optimism from the White House regarding the economic outlook [1][3][6]. Economic Growth - The U.S. economy has shown better-than-expected performance, with several quarters achieving 4% GDP growth [6]. - The Atlanta Federal Reserve's latest forecast indicates a 3.5% annualized GDP growth for the third quarter [7]. - The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a contraction of 0.6% in GDP year-on-year for Q1 2025, followed by a growth of 3.8% in Q2 [5]. Consumer Sentiment and Inflation - The holiday shopping season has been described as "very strong," yet consumer sentiment remains low, with the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index at 53.3, down 28% from the previous year [4][8]. - Recent inflation data shows a 3% year-on-year increase in consumer prices, with household food costs rising by 3.1% [8]. - There is a notable disparity between inflation concerns and consumer confidence, as consumer spending accounts for nearly 70% of U.S. GDP [8]. Government Response to Economic Concerns - The Treasury Secretary attributes consumer concerns about affordability to media reports and states that the government is addressing inflation issues left by the previous administration [9]. - The Secretary expressed confidence that the U.S. will "move towards prosperity" in the coming year [9].

Core Viewpoint - SpaceX's valuation has surged to $800 billion due to market optimism, with ARK's model predicting a potential valuation of $2.5 trillion by 2030, driven by the "flywheel effect" of Starlink cash flow supporting Starship iterations for Mars colonization [1][3][4]. Valuation Dynamics - SpaceX's current valuation of $800 billion represents a doubling from approximately $400 billion just seven months prior, surpassing OpenAI to become the highest-valued private company in the U.S. [3] - The management is considering an IPO in 2026, marking a potential path for the nearly 25-year-old company [3]. ARK's Long-term Predictions - ARK Investment Management's report suggests that if SpaceX's valuation starts from $350 billion in December 2024, investors could see a compound annual return of about 38% [3][5]. - The Monte Carlo simulation indicates a bullish scenario with a valuation of approximately $3.1 trillion and a bearish scenario at about $1.7 trillion by 2030 [3][6]. Model Logic and Flywheel Effect - The ARK model operates on a self-reinforcing "flywheel" logic, where cash generated from Starlink is reinvested into Starship technology, ultimately supporting Mars colonization efforts [13][4]. - The model's predictions are highly dependent on the rapid reusability of Starship and the success of other key technologies [4][42]. Market Potential and Revenue Generation - The potential market size for Starlink is projected to generate around $300 billion in annual revenue by 2035, capturing about 15% of global communication spending [21]. - The average bandwidth is expected to reach approximately 130 million Gbps at maturity, with a breakeven point of about $0.20 per Mbps, significantly lower than current U.S. averages [19]. Satellite Performance and Cost Structure - Satellite performance is a critical input variable in the model, with the marginal cost structure indicating that as Starship reusability improves, satellite costs will increasingly dominate total costs [24][26]. - The transition from V1 to V2 Mini Optimized satellites shows adherence to Wright's Law, suggesting significant performance improvements [27]. Mars Colonization Plans - SpaceX's long-term goal includes establishing a human presence on Mars, with plans to utilize Optimus robots and other technologies for infrastructure development [35]. - The model anticipates that the value attributed to Mars-related activities will grow over time, although cash flows from these initiatives are expected to be more speculative compared to Starlink [35][39]. Risks and Limitations - The model incorporates 17 key independent variables, acknowledging that unexpected events, such as leadership changes or natural disasters, could significantly impact outcomes [42]. - Execution risks in the space industry, particularly regarding Starship's reusability and the timely development of infrastructure on Mars, are highlighted as critical factors influencing valuation [42].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the need for a coherent and focused global engagement strategy for the United States to maintain its status as the world's strongest and most influential nation [3][4][5] - It critiques past U.S. strategies post-Cold War for failing to align with core national interests and for misjudging the American public's willingness to bear global burdens [4][5] - The article highlights the importance of prioritizing core national interests in U.S. foreign policy, focusing on security, economic stability, and the protection of American values [7][10] Group 2 - The article outlines the core objectives of U.S. strategy, including the protection of national sovereignty, economic interests, and the well-being of its citizens [7][8] - It stresses the need for a resilient national infrastructure capable of withstanding various threats, including military attacks and foreign influence [8] - The article advocates for a strong military presence and advanced defense systems to safeguard U.S. interests and deter potential adversaries [8][9] Group 3 - The article discusses the importance of maintaining a robust economy as the foundation of U.S. power, emphasizing the need for a strong industrial base and innovative energy sector [8][9] - It highlights the necessity of protecting intellectual property and fostering technological advancements to sustain economic leadership [9] - The article calls for a focus on re-industrialization and energy independence to bolster economic resilience and reduce reliance on foreign sources [12][18] Group 4 - The article outlines the U.S. approach to foreign relations, advocating for a pragmatic and principle-driven diplomacy that prioritizes American interests [11][13] - It emphasizes the need for burden-sharing among allies and partners, particularly in defense spending and regional security responsibilities [14][15] - The article critiques the past U.S. approach to China, calling for a rebalancing of economic relations to ensure fairness and protect American economic independence [25][26] Group 5 - The article identifies the strategic importance of the Western Hemisphere, advocating for a return to Monroe Doctrine principles to safeguard U.S. interests in the region [16][18] - It discusses the need for a proactive stance against foreign adversaries in the Western Hemisphere, emphasizing cooperation with regional allies to combat illegal immigration and drug trafficking [19][20] - The article highlights the importance of economic partnerships and investment opportunities in the region to strengthen U.S. influence and counter external threats [22][23]

Trump's Security Strategy Focuses on Profit, Not Spreading Democracy 特朗普总统上个月在白宫发表讲话。他领导的政府发布的《国家安全战略》描绘了一个美国利益远比以往任何 一届政府——甚至包括他第一任期内——所描述的要狭隘得多的世界。 汤姆·布伦纳为《纽约时报》撰稿 2025年12月5日更新于美国东部时间晚上7:29 拉丁美洲国家必须向美国公司授予无需竞标的合同。华盛顿对富裕的海湾君主国的"颐指气使"必 须停止。 从白宫的角度来看，世界是美国可以利用其强大力量赚钱的地方。 特朗普总统今年以来一直表明，如果他连任，将会优先考虑向实力较弱的国家施压，以使美国企 业受益。但周四晚些时候，他的政府发布了期待已久的美国全球国家安全目标更新，将这种以利 润为导向的做法确立为官方外交政策的核心要素。 这份名为《国家安全战略》的文件描绘了一个美国利益远比以往历届政府——甚至包括特朗普第 一任期内——所描述的更为狭隘的世界。美国作为全球自由力量的形象已不复存在，取而代之的 是一个专注于减少移民、同时避免对独裁政权进行评判，而是将其视为经济来源的国家。 "我们寻求与 ...

Core Viewpoint - The new U.S. National Security Strategy portrays Europe, rather than Russia, as the primary adversary, indicating a significant shift in U.S. foreign policy and potentially deepening divisions within the transatlantic alliance [1][2][6][7]. Summary by Sections U.S. National Security Strategy - The annual strategic document previously highlighted threats from Russia but now directs harsh criticism towards NATO allies in Europe, describing them as declining powers that have ceded sovereignty to the EU [2][6][10]. - The report warns that immigration could lead to the "civilizational extinction" of Europe, potentially transforming several NATO countries into nations dominated by "non-European" populations within two decades [7][10]. Critique of European Policies - The strategy criticizes the EU and other multinational organizations for undermining political freedom and sovereignty, accusing many European governments of subverting democratic processes without providing specific details [10][11]. - It emphasizes the need for Europe to correct its current trajectory and regain confidence, suggesting a paternalistic tone in its recommendations [10][11]. Shift in U.S.-Europe Relations - The document reflects a fundamental change in how the U.S. views its relationship with Europe, positioning the U.S. as an arbiter between Europe and Russia rather than a traditional ally against Russian threats [11][12]. - The strategy calls for an end to NATO's "ever-expanding alliance" and suggests a return to cooperation with Russia, which some analysts interpret as a strategy that undermines existing European structures [11][12]. European Response - European leaders are urged to reconsider their traditional transatlantic relationships in light of the new U.S. stance, with some experts suggesting that the document signals the end of the conventional alliance [7][8][12]. - The EU has rejected claims that it supports harmful immigration policies or undermines free speech, asserting that U.S. national security is closely tied to European security [12][14].

图片来源：Getty Images Donald Trump's bleak, incoherent foreign-policy strategy 这种盛气凌人的干预权被称为门罗主义的"特朗普推论"。这是对"罗斯福推论"的刻意致敬——1904年，西 奥多·罗斯福总统提出该推论，主张美国对西半球拥有类似宪兵的执法权。 所有这一切似乎必然会勾起人们对20世纪美国在该地区高压干预的愤怒回忆——从军事入侵、封锁，到中央 情报局支持的政变，再到冷战时期美国武装和训练犯有法外处决与酷刑罪行的独裁政权的安全协定。《国家 安全战略》中提到，将援助和贸易与拉美各国政府的合作挂钩，这表明美国认为，即便拉美各国心怀怨恨， 也会听从其指令。 2025年12月5日 你或许会认为，在特朗普的世界里，一份新的《国家安全战略》（NSS）并不算什么大事。唐纳德·特朗普第 一任期内的国家安全顾问约翰·博尔顿经常抱怨，他的老板根本没有任何战略可言。相反，这位总统行事全凭 冲动——而且不受太多简报的束缚。他的立场常常在几天内朝令夕改、前后矛盾。 尽管如此，这份新的《国家安全战略》仍具有重要意义。该文件离奇地在12月4日深夜至5日凌晨发布，将被 美 ...

Core Viewpoint - Arc'teryx, a high-end outdoor brand, is successfully expanding in China by appealing to affluent consumers who prefer high-quality, functional products over traditional luxury items, positioning itself between sports and luxury markets [4][10][24]. Group 1: Market Expansion and Strategy - Arc'teryx has opened a large flagship store in Nanjing West Road, Shanghai, attracting daily queues of customers [3][7]. - The brand's success in China contrasts with struggles faced by other luxury brands, as Chinese consumers shift towards high-value products [4][5]. - The company plans to open more stores globally, including a flagship in New York's Rockefeller Center [4][10]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Arc'teryx's revenue surged from $500 million in 2020 to over $2 billion, with Greater China accounting for 45% of total sales, up from 25% in 2020 [10]. - The company reported a 47% year-on-year sales increase in Greater China for the third quarter and has raised its revenue and profit forecasts for 2025 [10]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Trends - Outdoor activities like hiking and skiing are becoming popular in China, influencing consumer preferences for outdoor apparel [4][10]. - Arc'teryx's products are favored by consumers who may not engage in outdoor sports but seek stylish and functional clothing for everyday use [4][11]. Group 4: Brand Positioning and Identity - Arc'teryx's CEO, Stuart Haselden, emphasizes the brand's unique positioning that blends sports and luxury, which has contributed to its success in a challenging consumer environment [4][10][24]. - The brand's iconic Alpha SV jacket is priced at approximately 8,200 RMB (around $1,160), reflecting its premium market positioning [24]. Group 5: Challenges and Controversies - Despite a recent controversy over a sponsored fireworks event that sparked environmental concerns, Arc'teryx continues to experience growth in China [10][26]. - The company has acknowledged the backlash and committed to aligning its practices with its values to prevent future incidents [26][29].