Core Viewpoint - Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) is facing unprecedented market challenges due to a sudden shift in its financing strategy, which has raised concerns about the sustainability of the Bitcoin treasury model [3][6]. Group 1: Financing Strategy and Market Impact - Strategy initially planned to raise funds through preferred stock to purchase Bitcoin but only raised $47 million, significantly below expectations [6][8]. - To compensate for the shortfall, the company restarted its common stock issuance plan, contradicting previous commitments to limit dilution, which has negatively impacted investor confidence [6][9]. - The stock price of Strategy has dropped 16.8% in August, erasing much of the premium it previously enjoyed relative to its Bitcoin holdings [4][6]. Group 2: Treasury Model Challenges - The Bitcoin treasury model, once seen as an innovative case on Wall Street, is now under scrutiny as Strategy's premium advantage collapses, raising questions about the sustainability of this model [7][10]. - Over 100 companies have emulated Strategy's model, collectively holding approximately $108 billion in Bitcoin, which represents 4.7% of the total supply [7][10]. - The market's confidence in the treasury model is wavering, as evidenced by the decline in the multiple of Bitcoin holdings (mNAV) to 1.57, despite Bitcoin's strong market performance [9][10]. Group 3: Broader Industry Implications - Nearly one-third of publicly traded companies that have incorporated Bitcoin into their balance sheets now trade below the value of their reserves, indicating widespread pressure on Bitcoin treasury firms [10][11]. - The rise of spot Bitcoin ETFs poses a challenge to treasury companies, as these funds provide exposure to Bitcoin without the risks associated with corporate governance, leverage, or dilution [10][11]. - Attention is shifting towards other digital assets like Ethereum and Solana, with over $19 billion invested in Ethereum-focused treasuries, suggesting a diversification trend in the digital asset space [11][12].

Group 1 - Historical data indicates that September is the worst-performing month for European and American stock markets, with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq traditionally recording their largest declines of the year during this month [1][4][5] - Despite a strong performance in August, investors are bracing for a historically "infamous" month [5] Group 2 - The European market shows significant divergence, with banking stocks leading gains while media stocks lag behind [6] - The banking sector in Europe has been the biggest winner, reaching its highest level since the 2008 financial crisis due to positive earnings reports and ongoing merger rumors [7] - Deutsche Bank has performed exceptionally well, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 100% [8] - Conversely, media stocks have suffered over an 8% decline in the past two months, primarily due to concerns over the impact of AI [9] Group 3 - Institutional views on the market outlook are divided between optimistic and cautious perspectives [10] - Optimists believe the bull market will continue, supported by economic soft landing, robust corporate earnings, and lower interest rates [11] - Cautious analysts express concerns about the economic outlook, noting increasing pressures despite signs of resilience in the U.S. economy [11]

本周，库克已提起诉讼以阻止罢免，在周五华盛顿特区联邦地区法院的初步辩论结束后，她是否仍在任以及能否在9月会议上投票，依然悬而未决。 分析指出，如果法庭裁定可以解雇库克，她的缺席将可能使理事会在特朗普任命者和拜登任命者（包括鲍威尔）之间形成三对三的均势。这可能会让试图判断未来 利率走向的投资者感到困惑：究竟是鲍威尔，还是不断壮大的特朗普阵营，将控制货币政策？ 就在美联储准备进行年内可能首次降息的前几周，一场前所未有的政治风暴正冲击着这家百年央行。 这场风暴的中心是特朗普本周采取的行动——他以抵押贷款欺诈的指控为由，试图解雇美联储理事丽莎·库克（Lisa Cook）。这是美联储成立111年 来，首次有总统试图罢免一位在任理事。 特朗普这一史无前例的举动，让市场几乎确定的9月降息前景变得复杂。 主席鲍威尔此前已暗示可能在9月16日至17日的会议上降息，以应对走弱的劳动力市场。尽管市场普遍预期利率将从4.25%-4.5%的目标区间下调25个 基点，但这一决议能在多大范围获得支持，以及后续政策如何演变，都已被蒙上了阴影。 这场权力斗争的走向，将直接决定美联储理事会的构成，进而影响未来几个月乃至更长时期的政策天平。 联储 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley suggests that despite BYD's ongoing expansion and strong overseas growth, the expected benefits such as higher average selling prices, favorable exchange rate gains, and larger scale effects did not materialize in the second quarter profit statement, indicating potential "one-time" or "concentrated accrual" negative factors [1][3][4] Financial Performance - BYD's revenue surpassed Tesla for the first time in the first half of the year, but gross margin decreased from 18.78% in the same period last year to 18.01%, with a significant drop of 3.8 percentage points in the second quarter to 16.3% [3][5] - The net profit for the second quarter was 6.4 billion yuan, down 31% quarter-on-quarter and 30% year-on-year, significantly below Morgan Stanley's previous forecast of 10 billion yuan [5] - The single-vehicle profit dropped from 8,800 yuan in the first quarter to 4,800 yuan in the second quarter, marking a nearly 50% decline [3][5] Factors Affecting Profitability - Three main factors are identified as contributing to the pressure on profit margins: 1. Dealer rebates: To stimulate sales, BYD provided rebates on most vehicles sold in China, directly impacting single-vehicle profits [5][6] 2. Rising costs: The introduction of the "Heavenly Eye" advanced intelligent driving system increased manufacturing costs, which were not fully offset by the resulting sales increase [6][7] 3. Price competition: Ongoing price wars in the domestic market led to further price cuts by BYD since late April, exerting direct pressure on profit margins [7][8] Overseas Growth and Profit Discrepancy - Analysts are puzzled by the disconnect between strong overseas sales growth and overall weak profits, as BYD's new car registrations in Europe tripled year-on-year, surpassing Tesla [8] - The expected benefits from overseas growth, such as higher average selling prices and favorable exchange rates, did not reflect in the second quarter's profit statement, creating a profitability "mystery" [8] - There is speculation about undisclosed one-time factors or whether the company chose to absorb negative costs in the second quarter to prepare for larger cost reductions in the third quarter [8] Market Outlook - The uncertainty surrounding BYD's financial performance may provide reasons for market skeptics, while potential catalysts to reassure investors could include seasonal sales rebounds, new model launches around the Chengdu Auto Show, and the actual recovery of overseas business profits [8] - BYD's stock price has corrected 27% from its peak this year but remains up 29% year-to-date, indicating ongoing tension between short-sellers and bulls in the market [8]

美版"花呗" affirm holdings 公布第四财季财报，营收和利润超出预期，周五股价飙升10.59%。 数据显示，该公司Q4营收同比增长33%至8.76亿美元，好于市场预期的8.37亿美元;净利润为 6920万美元，上年同期则亏损4510万美元;每股收益为20美分，也好于市场预期的11美分。 第四财季商品交易总额(GMV)同比增长43%，达到104亿美元。 该公司在致股东的信中表示： "这种持续的执行使得Affirm在2025财年第四季度实现了营业利润， 完全符合我们一年前所承诺的时间表。" Affirm预计2026财年第一季度营收将在8.55亿美元至8.85亿美元之间，而商品交易总额将在101 亿美元至104亿美元之间。 截至周五美股收盘，Affirm股价年内已上涨超40%，超过了 纳斯达克 指数12%的涨幅。 Affirm于2021年上市，目前在电子商务领域面临着日益激烈的竞争。该公司与 亚马逊 和 shopify 建立了合作关系，但另一个合作伙伴 沃尔玛 最近转向了竞争对手Klarna，后者预计 将很快上市。 去年，Affirm还宣布与 苹果 达成协议。 德意志银行宣布将美国金融科技公司Affi ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming annual benchmark revision of non-farm payroll (NFP) data by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is expected to reveal a significant downward adjustment of 550,000 to 800,000 jobs, which may impact market confidence in the U.S. labor market and prompt the Federal Reserve to consider a substantial interest rate cut of 50 basis points, similar to actions taken in September of the previous year [2][5]. Group 1: Reasons for Data Overestimation - The primary reasons for the overestimation of employment data include the flawed "birth-death model" used by BLS, which inaccurately estimates job creation from new businesses without relying on actual business registration or tax data [3][4]. - A significant reduction in illegal immigration has also contributed to the overestimation, as the labor supply has been affected, leading to a decrease in the actual need for new jobs [8]. - Historical trends indicate that original employment data is often revised downward during economic slowdowns, a pattern observed since 1979 [10]. Group 2: Additional Indicators of Data Issues - Seasonal adjustment models may misinterpret genuine trends as seasonal fluctuations, leading to delayed corrections in employment data [9]. - ADP data has raised questions about BLS's overestimation of job growth in the healthcare sector, suggesting that the actual growth is not as robust as reported by BLS [11]. - Household surveys may be overestimating population and employment growth, with current models potentially overstating U.S. population growth by about 1 million, which could lead to an overestimation of employment growth by approximately 50,000 jobs per month [12].

据《华尔街日报》报道，这款晶片目前处于测试阶段，由中国企业代工生产，有别于阿里巴巴此前委托台 积电生产的AI处理器。 美国科技巨头英伟达在华销售持续受阻之际，美国媒体报道称，中国科技巨头阿里巴巴已研发一款新型晶片，比 以往版本更具通用性，可支持更广泛的人工智能（AI）推理任务。 H20是英伟达依据美国对华技术出口管制要求，特供中国市场的低配版AI晶片。美国特朗普政府曾在今年4 月叫停H20晶片对华出口，后于7月重启，随后以安全风险为由，要求企业暂缓采购相关晶片。 彭博社8月中引述知情者称，有关部门敦促本土企业避免使用H20晶片，尤其是跟政府相关的用途。 另一方面，阿里巴巴星期五（8月9日）公布的财报显示，得益于强劲的AI需求，公司云计算业务在4月至6 月的营收同比增长26%，超出市场预期。 阿里巴巴集团首席执行官吴泳铭说："面向未来，我们将围绕大消费和AI+云两大战略重心继续坚定投入， 把握历史机遇，实现长期增长。" 随着AI在中国加速普及，推理运算需求正急剧增长。知情者透露，阿里巴巴这款新晶片正是为推理任务设 计，而这类运算通常无需依赖最先进的晶片。 业内人士指出，距离生产出可与最先进美国晶片相媲美的产品仍 ...

值得注意的是，尽管标普500指数成分股公司第二季度营收同比增长4.8%，但经汇率调整后，销售增长速度有所放缓。尤其是中小型公司的实际营收出 现负增长。 从现在到年底，流动性风险的管理将成为美联储和投资者的重要关注点。7月的FOMC会议纪要提到，TGA（财政账户）重建可能会影响货币市场的波 动和资金状况。尤其是随着TGA重建和SLR（杠杆率规定）规则变化的交替，以及量化紧缩（QT）结束，这些都值得关注。 高盛认为，QT可能会在 10月结束，因为资金压力加剧。 欧洲市场：意大利和法国风险溢价缩小 高盛顶级交易员Mark Wilson指出，2025年夏季中国股市成为最意外亮点。中国股市表现超出预期，如今沪指破十年新高，散户融资近2015年峰值，成 交额连续12天超2万亿元创纪录。而从更长周期来看，中国股市的净多头仓位仍处于较低水平，5年区间仅处56分位。 高盛交易员Mark Wilson近日指出，回顾2025年迄今的表现，中国股市无疑是夏季最大的亮点之一。中国股市表现远超预期，成为市场中最出色的交易 机会之一。 Wilson提到，中国股市依然保持低估值，持仓比例偏低，而交易动能持续增强。这种市场状态本身可能推动股市 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent rally in the U.S. stock market is broadening beyond just the technology giants, with more sectors and companies participating in the upward trend [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF rose by 2.7% in August, marking its longest consecutive monthly gain since May 2021, achieving four months of increases [1][5]. - The S&P 500 index increased by 1.9% in August, also achieving its longest consecutive monthly gain since September 2024 [7]. - The Roundhill MAGS ETF, which bundles the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks, rose approximately 2% in August, achieving five consecutive months of gains, although at a slower pace [5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy shows resilience, with the Bureau of Economic Analysis reporting a second-quarter GDP annualized growth rate of 3.3%, exceeding many expectations [7]. - The strong employment market is identified as a core support for the overall economic resilience [7]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - Charles Schwab's Chief Investment Strategist, Liz Ann Sonders, noted that the participation rate among S&P 500 constituents is steadily increasing, indicating a less concentrated market rally [4]. - Northlight Asset Management's Chief Investment Officer, Chris Zaccarelli, expressed that despite September typically being a poor-performing month, there are no significant risks currently threatening the ongoing rally, suggesting potential buying opportunities if market volatility occurs [8].

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba is making significant investments in its instant e-commerce and AI sectors, leading to short-term profit erosion but aiming for long-term growth and market leadership [4][7][19] Capital Expenditure - The company reported a capital expenditure of 38 billion RMB for the quarter, a 57% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 2.2 times increase year-on-year [2][8] - A substantial investment of approximately 11 billion RMB is directed towards the instant e-commerce business, with expected losses reaching 22 billion RMB in the upcoming quarter [2][6] Impact on Profitability - The establishment of the China E-commerce Group (CEG) has resulted in a decline of 10 billion RMB in adjusted profit due to these investments [3][5] - The short-term profit erosion is a strategic choice to prioritize growth over immediate financial returns [4][19] Growth in Instant E-commerce - Instant e-commerce has shown promising initial returns, with daily order volume reaching 80 million in August, significantly narrowing the gap with market leader Meituan [10][12] - The instant e-commerce sector has positively impacted the core e-commerce business, leading to a 25% increase in monthly active buyers on the Taobao app [12][19] Future Projections - Alibaba aims for its instant e-commerce business to contribute approximately 1 trillion RMB in GMV by 2028, representing a potential 10% increase in its current e-commerce scale [17] - The management anticipates a 50% reduction in loss per order within the next two months through operational efficiency improvements [17] AI Investments - The company is also heavily investing in AI, with capital expenditures reflecting a strong belief in the future potential of this sector [8][19] - The robust demand for AI services is expected to drive accelerated growth in Alibaba Cloud's revenue [3][17] Market Sentiment - Analysts from Nomura emphasize the need for investors to assess the balance between short-term pain and long-term value in Alibaba's strategy [4][19] - The company's commitment to its strategic transformation is evident through its willingness to incur short-term losses for future growth opportunities [18][19]