证券研究报告——煤炭行业周报 短期回落无需过多担心 中长期煤炭板块不悲观 【2024.12.09-2024.12.15】 核心观点 行业评级：看好 发布日期：2024.12.17 -30.00 -20.00 -10.00 0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 2023-07-072023-08-072023-09-072023-10-072023-11-072023-12-072024-01-072024-02-072024-03-072024-04-072024-05-072024-06-072024-07-072024-08-072024-09-072024-10-072024-11-072024-12-07 沪深300 煤炭指数 数据来源：Wind 大同证券 大同证券研究中心 分析师：景剑文 执业证书编号：S0770523090001 邮箱：jingjw@dtsbc.com.cn 地址：山西太原长治路 111 号山 西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址:http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 煤炭行情走势图 ◆ 动力煤短期价格回落，冬季需求平稳无需过多担心。近 ...

Market Overview - On December 16, 2024, the three major indices showed a mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index remaining flat, while the Shenzhen and ChiNext indices experienced declines [4][5][6] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3386.33 points, down by 0.16%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.30% to 10573.92 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.51% to 2201.53 points [8][9][10] - The total trading volume across both markets was approximately 1.7 trillion yuan [10] Sector Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the top performers included Social Services (+1.98%), Retail (+1.87%), and Utilities (+1.56%), while the worst performers were Construction Materials (-2.24%), Electronics (-1.78%), and Computers (-1.59%) [12][22] - The overall market saw 1,766 stocks rise, 131 remain flat, and 3,475 decline, indicating a challenging trading environment [19] Key News - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has mandated brokerages to conduct self-inspections regarding margin trading, client transactions, and investment banking operations, aiming to identify and rectify weak management areas [15] - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 11-12 has drawn significant attention, with discussions focusing on boosting consumption and the economic outlook for 2024 [15] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has emphasized the importance of maintaining market stability and enhancing the adaptability of the issuance and listing system [15]

Economic Outlook - The central economic work conference held on December 11, 2024, acknowledged the internal and external challenges facing the economy and proposed measures such as dual monetary and fiscal easing to boost consumption[1] - The expected fiscal deficit rate is around 4%, with special bonds projected at CNY 4.5 trillion and additional special treasury bonds estimated at CNY 2 trillion[1] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy has shifted from "prudent" to "moderately loose" for the first time in 14 years, with explicit mentions of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions[1] - In 2024, two reserve requirement ratio cuts of 100 basis points and two OMO rate cuts of 40 basis points are anticipated, along with two MLF rate cuts of 60 basis points[1] Stock Market Stability - The conference emphasized the importance of stabilizing the stock market and proposed innovative financial tools to facilitate long-term capital inflow[1] - The central bank has already introduced swap facilities and repo buyback loans to stabilize the stock market, with expectations for a more substantial stabilization fund in 2025[1] Investment Opportunities - The focus on expanding domestic demand highlights new opportunities in consumer sectors, particularly in 3C electronics and scenario-driven consumption[2] - The "Artificial Intelligence+" initiative is expected to drive high-quality development and create significant investment opportunities in technology sectors[2] Industry Reforms - The conference indicated a commitment to reform state-owned enterprises and promote private sector growth, which may yield short-term investment opportunities in state-owned enterprises[2] - The emphasis on addressing "involution" in overcapacity industries suggests potential rebounds in sectors like photovoltaics[2]

Policy Insights - The Central Political Bureau's meeting on December 9, 2024, set a more proactive tone for economic growth policies in 2025, exceeding market expectations[3] - The anticipated fiscal deficit rate is around 4%, with special bonds totaling CNY 4.5 trillion and additional special treasury bonds expected to reach CNY 2 trillion[3] - Monetary policy has shifted from "prudent" to "moderately loose," marking the first such change in 14 years, which is expected to provide strong liquidity support for economic growth in 2025[3] Consumption and Demand - The emphasis on boosting consumption has been elevated, with policies aimed at significantly increasing domestic demand, contrasting with last year's focus on technology innovation[3] - The government plans to expand the scope of the "old for new" consumption policy and may introduce additional measures such as direct cash transfers to stimulate consumer spending[3] Market Stability - The stock and real estate markets are expected to stabilize, supported by a combination of loose monetary policy and proactive fiscal measures, leading to a potential "slow bull" market for A-shares in 2025[3] - Recent data indicates a recovery in the real estate market, with sales showing signs of improvement following the easing of restrictions and lower mortgage rates[3] Risk Management - The meeting highlighted the importance of addressing external shocks and managing risks in key areas such as local debt and real estate, particularly in light of pressures from U.S. policies[3] - The government aims to stabilize market expectations and enhance economic vitality through a series of policy measures designed to mitigate risks and promote sustained economic recovery[5]

证券研究报告——市场日报 2024.12.05 （预计发布时间：2024.12.06） 周四（12 月 05 日），三大指数早盘低开， 快速拉升翻红后再度翻绿，之后再度拉升后保 持震荡，午后行情回落，三大指数下行翻绿后 大同证券研究中心 尾盘上行翻红，全天宽幅震荡，小幅收红。截 分析师：景剑文 至收盘，上证指数（+0.12%）收报 3368.86 点， 执业证书编号：S0770523090001 深证成指（+0.29%）收报 10634.49 点，创业 板指（+0.36%）收报 2221.46 点。两市量能再 邮箱：jingjw@dtsbc.com.cn 度回落，跌破 1.5 万亿（数据来源：Wind）。 地址：山西太原长治路 111 号山西世贸中心 申万Ⅰ级行业多数上涨，传媒、社会服务、计 A 座 F12、F13 算机领涨，石油石化、综合、食品饮料领跌。 网址: http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 三大指数宽幅震荡 两市量能跌破 1.5 万亿 证券研究报告——市场日报 行情回顾 风险提示 量能持续收缩引发市场扰动 当日要闻 国家发改委：支持地方结合实际出台促进冰雪旅游消费举措 探索设立地方冰雪日 ...

Market Overview - The three major indices opened lower on December 5, 2024, but quickly rebounded before fluctuating throughout the day, ultimately closing slightly higher. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.12% to close at 3368.86 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.29% to 10634.49 points, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.36% to 2221.46 points [3][7][8]. Trading Volume - The trading volume in the two markets fell below 1.5 trillion yuan, indicating a decrease in market activity [10]. Sector Performance - Most sectors in the Shenwan first-level industry indices saw gains, with Media, Social Services, and Computer sectors leading the rise. Conversely, the Oil & Petrochemical, Comprehensive, and Food & Beverage sectors experienced declines [11][12][20]. Key News - The National Development and Reform Commission announced support for local initiatives to promote ice and snow tourism, including the establishment of local ice and snow days and special holidays [13]. - Regulatory adjustments were made to the stock repurchase financing guidelines, increasing the maximum financing ratio from 70% to 90% for stock repurchase loans [13]. - Bitcoin prices surged past $100,000, marking a 138% increase year-to-date, with a significant rise from $68,000 to $100,000 in just one month [13]. Index Performance - The performance of major indices on December 5, 2024, included: - Shanghai Composite Index: +0.12% - Shenzhen Component Index: +0.29% - CSI 300 Index: -0.23% - ChiNext Index: +0.36% - Sci-Tech 50 Index: +0.25% - North Star 50 Index: +0.94% [15][16]. Market Strength - The market showed a strong upward trend with 3,820 stocks rising, 145 remaining flat, and 1,403 declining. The proportion of rising stocks was 69.15% [17][18]. Capital Flow - The net inflow of capital in the Shenwan first-level industries on December 5, 2024, indicated significant interest in sectors such as Media and Non-Bank Financials, while sectors like Oil & Petrochemical and Food & Beverage saw net outflows [21][23].

Market Overview - The three major indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down by 0.42% at 3364.65 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 1.02% at 10604.01 points, and the ChiNext Index down by 1.43% at 2213.41 points [4][8][9][10]. - The total trading volume in the two markets slightly decreased but still exceeded 1.6 trillion yuan [11]. Sector Performance - Most sectors experienced declines, with coal, oil and petrochemicals, and household appliances leading the gains, while media, textiles and apparel, and beauty care sectors faced the largest declines [12][13]. - The top five performing sectors included coal (+2.19%), oil and petrochemicals (+1.01%), and household appliances (+0.74%), while the bottom five included media (-3.21%), textiles and apparel (-2.29%), and beauty care (-2.20%) [22]. Key News - A new regulation on non-bank interbank deposits was introduced, aimed at closing arbitrage loopholes and reducing banks' funding costs. This regulation took effect on December 1, 2024 [15]. - Hard technology has become a key focus for institutional strategies, with policies encouraging investment in small-cap companies with high R&D intensity [15]. - The U.S. government announced new export restrictions affecting over 140 Chinese companies, particularly in the semiconductor sector, prompting industry associations to call for caution in selecting U.S. chips [15].

Core Insights - The report indicates a mixed performance in the market, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up by 0.44% at 3378.81 points, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index closed down by 0.40% and 0.44% respectively [8][9][10] - The trading volume in both markets exceeded 1.7 trillion yuan, indicating a high level of market activity [12] - The report highlights that over half of the Shenwan first-level industries experienced gains, with banking, public utilities, and construction leading the rise, while defense, media, and electronics sectors faced declines [14] Market Performance - The number of stocks that rose was 2,446, while 2,717 stocks fell, indicating a bearish sentiment overall [18] - The total trading volume was 1,602.74 million shares, with a total turnover of 17,159.08 billion yuan [18] Sector Performance - The banking sector saw a rise of 1.56%, public utilities increased by 1.38%, and construction rose by 1.37%, marking them as the top-performing sectors [21] - Conversely, the electronics sector fell by 1.02%, defense by 1.01%, and media by 0.98%, indicating weaker performance in these areas [21] Policy Developments - Recent policy measures from the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission and the National Development and Reform Commission aim to support central enterprises in establishing venture capital funds, focusing on early-stage, small, long-term, and hard technology investments [14]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the three major indices experienced a rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.13% to close at 3363.98 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 1.36% to 10756.55 points, and the ChiNext Index up by 1.42% to 2255.50 points, reflecting a strong market performance overall [6][8][9] - The report highlights that over 4500 stocks rose, indicating a broad-based market rally, with a trading volume exceeding 1.7 trillion yuan [13][10] - The manufacturing PMI for November was reported at 50.3%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, suggesting a modest acceleration in manufacturing expansion [14] Market Performance - The report details that 4,641 stocks rose, 69 remained flat, and 656 declined, with a significant 83.46% of stocks showing gains [18] - The total trading volume was recorded at 1.606 billion shares, with a total turnover of 17,867.13 billion yuan [18] Sector Performance - The report notes that the top-performing sectors included Comprehensive (up 4.91%), Retail (up 3.40%), and Automotive (up 3.09%), while the Banking sector saw a decline of 0.34% [21] - The report provides a detailed breakdown of sector performance, indicating that the Steel sector rose by 2.92%, and Beauty Care by 2.72%, while Food and Beverage increased by 0.74% [21] Fund Flow - The report indicates net inflows of capital into various sectors, with significant movements observed in sectors such as Steel, Coal, and Electricity [22]

Market Overview - On November 27, 2024, the three major indices opened lower but rebounded to close significantly higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 1% to surpass 3300 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index increased by over 2% [4][6][13] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3309.78 points, up 1.53%, the Shenzhen Component Index at 10566.10 points, up 2.25%, and the ChiNext Index at 2208.78 points, up 2.73% [8][10][12] - The total trading volume exceeded 1.4 trillion yuan, indicating a slight increase in market activity [11] Sector Performance - All major sectors showed positive performance, with the media, defense, and computer sectors leading the gains [12][13] - The top five performing sectors included Media (+3.96%), Defense (+3.40%), Computer (+3.28%), Electronics (+2.90%), and Retail (+2.49%) [21][22] - The bottom five sectors included Agriculture (+0.76%), Steel (+0.86%), and Automotive (+0.88%), indicating a mixed performance across different industries [21] Key Economic Indicators - A report from the National Bureau of Statistics indicated that profits of industrial enterprises above designated size fell by 4.3% year-on-year from January to October 2024, with a 10% decline in October alone [14] - The "Low-altitude Economy Development Trend Report" forecasts that by 2030, there will be 100,000 eVTOLs entering households or becoming airborne taxis, driven by advancements in technology and decreasing costs [14] Trading Data - The market saw 4,329 stocks rise, 126 remain flat, and 911 decline, with 109 stocks hitting the daily limit up and 25 hitting the limit down [18] - The total trading volume was 1.30677 billion shares, with a total turnover of 14,587.43 billion yuan [18]