朗坤科技（301305）动态点评 紧握 UCO 稀缺筹码，产能扩张与价格 上行共驱成长 2026 年 01 月 27 日 【事项】 废弃油脂市场价格中枢窄幅推升。1 月 9 日-1 月 15 日，中国 SAF 原 料级别 UCO 完税到厂价格已升至 7500-7600 元/吨区间，中枢环比上 周抬升约50元/吨。下游产品方面，UCO基HVO现货均值录得2642.55 美元/吨，环比上涨 1.90%。SAF FOB FARAG 均值录得 2290.05 美 元/吨，环比下跌 1.33%，绝对价格攀升至 2310.25 美元/吨。 【评论】 UCO 供需逻辑清晰，其长期稀缺性已由基本面深度锁定。1）供给端： 理论潜力大，但规范收集量不足。餐厨废油来源包括地沟油、泔水油、 潲水油、煎炸老油等多种类别途径，必须经过除杂、酯化、提纯精制 等一系列处理工艺才能得到生物质燃料。2023 年我国食用油消费量约 3908 万吨，对应理论废弃油脂总量约 1100 万吨，然而受限于收集体 系、处理能力及非正规流向等因素，实际规范利用量仅约 300 万吨； 2）需求端：政策驱动有望为上游 UCO 需求带来高增长。据我们测算， 以欧盟 ...

公 司 研 究 / 纺 织 服 饰 / 证 券 研 究 报 新澳股份（603889）深度研究 宽带战略助力品类及海外扩张，毛价上 升周期或迎新机遇 2026 年 01 月 27 日 【投资要点】 挖掘价值 投资成长 增持（维持） 东方财富证券研究所 证券分析师：赵树理 证书编号：S1160524090003 联系人：金叶羽 相对指数表现 《25H1 业绩相对稳定，新产能陆续释放》 2025.08.31 《24 年羊绒表现亮眼，整体盈利能力稳 定》 2025.04.28 告 毛纺纱线龙头，羊毛及羊绒业务双驱动。公司深耕毛纺行业 30 余年， 前期以毛纺产品为主，2019 年后再切入羊绒纱线领域，目前主要产品 包括羊毛纱线、羊绒纱线及羊毛毛条，同时配套有改性、染整等完整 产业链。2019 年至今，公司借助可持续宽带战略与全球化布局，支撑 新成长，近年多个新产能项目陆续投产，后续仍有新产能待释放。2024 年公司营收/归母净利润分别 48.4/4.3 亿元，同比+9.1%/+6.0%， 2021-2024 年公司营收/归母净利润 CAGR 分别达+12.0%/+12.8%。 2025Q1-Q3 公司营收/归母净利润 ...

【A 股行业+主题 ETF】单周净流入微降但仍保持高位，投资者入市 积极性不减，参照 2025 年 6 月-10 月情况，个人投资者往往在市场赚 钱效应已经明确显现后加速流入。 策略周报 宽基 ETF 再流出近 4000 亿 ——ETF 周报 2026 年 1 月第 2 期 2026 年 01 月 27 日 【策略观点】 整体 ETF 资金流情况一览 【股票 ETF（不含跨境）】2026 年 1 月 19 日至 23 日（如无特别说 明，下同），净流出 3331.7 亿，较前一周变化为-1918.9 亿，自 1 月 14 日以来已累计净流出近 5000 亿。 【港股类 ETF】单周净流入超百亿，延续流入趋势。跨境行业+主题 ETF 单周净流入 73.6 亿元，较前一周略减少 30.6 亿元。 宽基/风格/行业/细分 ETF 资金流透视 【宽基】整体净流出达 3961.9 亿，其中挂钩沪深 300 指数的宽基 ETF 单周净流出超 2000 亿，中证 1000、上证 50、中证 A500，以及创业 板、科创板内宽基 ETF 均有不同程度流出。自 1 月 12 日以来，宽基 ETF 规模已下降 5530.5 亿元 ...

公 司 研 究 / 基 础 化 工 / 证 券 研 究 报 告 百龙创园（605016）动态点评 全年业绩亮眼，25Q4 环比加速 2026 年 01 月 26 日 【事项】 公司发布业绩快报：预计 2025 年实现营业总收入 13.79 亿元，同比 +19.75%；实现归母净利润 3.66 亿元，同比+48.94%；实现扣非归母 净利润 3.61 亿元，同比+55.87%。测算得 25Q4 分别实现营收 4.10 亿 元，同比+23.8%；实现归母净利润 1.01 亿元，同比+60.6%；实现扣 非归母净利润 1.01 亿元，同比+72.0%。 【评论】 挖掘价值 投资成长 相关研究 产品结构优化，利润弹性持续释放。公司膳食纤维系列产品中高毛利 的抗性糊精产品的销售占比进一步提升，带动了利润的增长。同时依 托公司研发技术，推进生产工艺技术改造，优化物料成本结构，降低 直接材料成本。"年产 30,000 吨可溶性膳食纤维项目"和"年产 15000 吨结晶糖项目"随着公司产品订单需求的增加，产能利用率进一步提 升。 品类景气度较优，产能瓶颈有所缓解。2025Q4 公司营收环比提速， 功能糖干燥扩产与综合提升项目 ...

食品饮料行业专题研究 从溜溜果园看梅产品休闲零食行业发 展 2026 年 01 月 26 日 【投资要点】 梅产品/果类零食/果冻行业具有一定景气度且均较为分散，且三者具 有一定交集。2025-2029 年果冻/果类/梅产品行业规模 CAGR 分别为 13.0%/8.6%/13.2%。2024 年果类/梅产品行业 CR5（按零售额计，下 同）分别为 14.5%/14.6%，同期果冻行业 CR10 为 33.9%。天然果冻 具有健康属性，起量迅速且集中度高，2025-2029 年行业规模 CAGR 为 39.8%，且天然果冻行业集中度高，2024 年 CR3 为 97.3。2024 年 溜 溜 果 园 在 果 类 / 梅产品 / 天 然 果 冻 市 占 位 列 第 一 ， 分 别 为 4.9%/7.0%/45.7%。 溜溜果园是梅产品行业的休食领军者： 1） 公司概况：公司前身成立于 1999 年，深耕梅产品 20 余年，21- 24 年在青梅果类零食行业和西梅果类零食行业连续四年排名第一。 24/1H25 年公司收入为 16.2/9.6 亿元，同增 22.2%/ 24.9%，同期归母 净利润为 1.48/1. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [5] Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned to benefit from the booming demand for optical modules driven by AI and data center construction, with expected revenue growth from 2025 to 2027 [5] - The company has established a comprehensive global presence with multiple production and R&D bases, enhancing its competitive edge in both domestic and international markets [5] - The company has a strong self-research capability in core optical components, ensuring supply chain stability and cost advantages [5] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company is a pioneer in the optical electronics field, with three main business segments: intelligent manufacturing, connectivity, and sensing [13] - It has deep integration into the optical electronics industry, leveraging resources from Huazhong University of Science and Technology [13] 2. Company Governance - The company completed a separation reform in 2021, enhancing its market competitiveness and establishing a multi-level incentive system [17] - The management team has a strong background in the optical electronics industry, which aids in aligning with industry trends [19] 3. Company Performance - The company's revenue increased from 61.38 billion to 120.11 billion from 2020 to 2022, driven by the growth of 400G optical modules and products for new energy vehicles [25] - In 2025, the company expects to achieve revenues of 152.38 billion, 226.25 billion, and 298.97 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5] - The gross profit margin has improved, with a notable increase in net profit margin to 11.90% in the first three quarters of 2025 [27] 4. Market Demand and Product Development - The demand for optical modules is expected to surge due to the rapid growth of AI and data centers, with a significant increase in capital expenditure from major cloud service providers [5] - The company is focusing on high-end optical modules, with a complete product system that includes 1.6T optical modules, which are expected to gain market share [5] 5. Financial Forecast - The company forecasts a net profit of 18.49 billion, 25.82 billion, and 33.76 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating strong growth potential [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5]. Core Views - The company is positioned as the leading coal producer in Mongolia, with a strong geographical advantage near the Chinese market. It is diversifying beyond coal into gold and copper, which are expected to contribute significantly to future profits [5][13]. - The gold business, initiated with the BKH gold mine, is projected to generate over $100 million in net profit by 2026, marking a substantial second growth curve for the company [5][6]. - The copper business, through the acquisition of UCC, is seen as a long-term growth opportunity, with plans for feasibility studies on the White Hill copper deposit [5][6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is the largest private mining enterprise in Mongolia, primarily engaged in coal production and export, with ongoing diversification into gold and copper [13]. - It was the first Mongolian company to list on the international capital market, with significant assets located in the Tavan Tolgoi coalfield [13][15]. Coal Business - The company operates two major coal mines, UHG and BN, with substantial coal reserves of 340 million tons and 272 million tons respectively, primarily producing high-quality hard coking coal [24][25]. - In 2024, the company achieved a peak raw coal production of 16.34 million tons, with a significant increase in sales through competitive bidding [39][41]. - The average selling price of coal is influenced by domestic market trends, with recent prices at $106 and $121 per ton for 2023 and 2024 respectively [44]. Gold Business - The BKH gold mine commenced commercial production in September 2025, with expectations to reach full production of 85,000 ounces by 2027 [5][6]. - The low All-In Sustaining Cost (AISC) of the gold business positions it as a high-margin contributor to the company's overall profitability [5]. Copper Business - The acquisition of a 50.5% stake in UCC provides access to the White Hill copper-gold project, which contains approximately 185,000 tons of copper and 52,000 ounces of gold [5][6]. - The company plans to conduct feasibility studies on the copper deposit to further reduce reliance on coal [5]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of $0.93 million, $2.63 million, and $3.77 million for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a PE ratio of less than 7 for 2026 [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the construction materials sector, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [2] Core Views - A new round of urban renewal is beginning, which is expected to provide significant opportunities in the consumer building materials sector, effectively countering the decline in new housing market demand [8] - The report highlights that after a prolonged downturn in the real estate sector, profitability in various segments of the construction supply chain is starting to recover, particularly for leading companies that have undergone strategic adjustments [8] - The report emphasizes the potential for price increases in certain segments, such as waterproofing and coatings, as companies respond to improved market conditions [8] Summary by Sections Cement - The cement market is entering a seasonal downturn, with demand expected to decline. The average shipment rate for major regions has dropped to 29%, a decrease of approximately 10 percentage points [27][34] - The national average price for cement remains stable at around 353 RMB per ton, with minor fluctuations observed in specific regions [28][34] - The report suggests that after the Spring Festival, demand may recover as new key projects are expected to commence, potentially stabilizing prices [34] Glass - The glass market is also experiencing a decline in demand, with production capacity decreasing to approximately 14.95 million tons, the lowest in recent years [53] - The average price for float glass has increased slightly to 1,139 RMB per ton, with inventory levels decreasing [38] - The report indicates that the glass industry is facing profitability challenges, leading to accelerated production line cold repairs, which may help stabilize the market [53] Fiberglass - The fiberglass market is seeing stable pricing for both roving and electronic fabrics, with the price of 7628 electronic fabric currently at approximately 4.4-4.85 RMB per meter [55] - The report anticipates continued high demand for electronic fabrics, supported by structural adjustments and a shortage of high-end products [55] - Key recommendations include focusing on leading companies like China Jushi, with additional attention on International Composite Materials and Zhongcai Technology [55] Carbon Fiber - Carbon fiber prices are expected to remain stable in the short term, with the rapid development of commercial aerospace potentially driving new demand [55] - The report notes that the current price stability is a necessary step for increased market penetration, with significant growth expected in the aerospace sector [55] Consumer Building Materials - The report highlights the resilience of consumer building materials, with leading companies like Sanke Tree and Rabbit Baby showing strong growth potential as they emerge from profitability challenges [8] - The urban renewal initiative is expected to create substantial market opportunities, particularly for high-quality consumer building materials [8]

Group 1: National Unified Market Construction - The construction of a national unified market has been elevated to a core economic strategy, emphasizing the need to eliminate market barriers and facilitate economic circulation[8] - The central economic work conference in 2025 highlighted the importance of deepening the construction of a unified market, marking a transition from framework establishment to systematic implementation[9] - The construction process has seen significant progress, with improvements in property rights protection, market access, fair competition, and social credit systems[9] Group 2: Key Areas and Policies - The modern service industry is expected to be a crucial driver in the unified market construction, with coastal regions likely to be the first to pilot reforms[1] - Tax incentives and government subsidies have been adjusted, primarily affecting key industries such as electronics, automotive, and pharmaceuticals, which may accelerate industry restructuring[1] - The establishment of a unified market will require reforms in the fiscal and tax systems, as well as optimization of local performance evaluation systems[1] Group 3: Economic Impact and Participation - The participation of different provinces in the unified market varies significantly, with coastal provinces showing higher engagement levels[1] - The share of external factors in total inputs is over 50% for resource-related and some high-tech manufacturing industries, indicating smoother domestic flow of factors[14] - Service industries show lower external factor input ratios, with public administration, accommodation, and comprehensive technical services at 7.23%, 11.54%, and 11.99% respectively, suggesting potential bottlenecks in factor circulation[14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the commercial aerospace and construction sectors, indicating a positive outlook for these industries [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that fixed asset investment (FAI) in 2025 is under pressure, with a total of 485,186 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 3.8%, which is a worsening of 1.2 percentage points compared to the previous 11 months [15]. - Infrastructure investment, excluding power and water supply sectors, decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, also reflecting a larger decline than earlier in the year [15]. - Real estate development investment reached 82,788 billion yuan in 2025, down 17.2% year-on-year, with new construction area dropping by 20.4% [15]. - The report emphasizes the potential for a rebound in the construction and real estate markets driven by supportive macro policies, particularly in urban renewal initiatives [16]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality cyclical stocks in the construction sector, particularly those benefiting from urban renewal policies and major infrastructure projects [16][19]. - Key companies such as China State Construction and China Energy Engineering reported year-on-year increases in new contracts, indicating a positive trend in capital expenditure among leading firms [16]. 2. Market Performance Review - The construction decoration index rose by 1.88%, outperforming the overall A-share index, which increased by 0.83% [14]. - Notable performers in the sector included chemical engineering (+10.70%) and steel structure (+7.71%) [14]. 3. Key Company Dynamics - Roman Holdings is projected to achieve a profit of 1.8-2 billion yuan in 2025, marking a turnaround from previous losses, driven by strong demand for computing power in major cities [19]. - The report also notes the increasing importance of satellite remote sensing applications in the commercial aerospace sector, with new policies aimed at developing a comprehensive resource utilization system [19]. 4. Financing and Debt Issuance - As of January 23, 2026, special bond net financing reached 1,704.9 billion yuan, with new issuances totaling 1,746 billion yuan, indicating a stable financing environment compared to previous years [20][21]. - The report highlights that city investment bonds have seen a net financing contraction of 219 billion yuan, with no special government bonds issued so far in 2026 [21].