Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Insights - The company is a leading domestic power semiconductor manufacturer, advancing in both medium and low-voltage MOSFETs and high-voltage IGBTs. It has four main product platforms, with SGT MOS, Trench MOS, IGBT, and SJ MOS contributing to revenue in the first half of 2024 [4][6] - The company is positioned to benefit from the recovery in industry demand, with expected revenue growth rates of 25.91%, 24.48%, and 22.81% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [6] - The company has established a strong supply chain with upstream wafer foundries and downstream packaging and testing capabilities, creating a robust competitive advantage [5][6] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, founded in 2013, specializes in the research, design, and sales of MOSFETs and IGBTs, with a comprehensive product range covering voltages from 12V to 1700V [29] - It has a significant market share in the domestic MOSFET market, which is the largest globally, and is actively expanding into emerging applications such as AI and electric vehicles [4][29] Product Platforms - The company has four main product platforms: SGT MOS, Trench MOS, IGBT, and SJ MOS, with SGT MOS being the fastest-growing and most profitable [39] - The revenue contribution from SGT MOS is expected to be 41.44% in the first half of 2024, while Trench MOS, IGBT, and SJ MOS contribute 29.30%, 16.20%, and 11.78% respectively [39] Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenues of 18.59 billion, 23.14 billion, and 28.42 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, with net profits of 4.60 billion, 5.81 billion, and 7.32 billion yuan respectively [6][7] - The gross margin is expected to improve, with a projected gross margin of 35.87% in 2024 [7] Market Position and Strategy - The company is deeply integrated with upstream wafer foundries and has established a virtual IDM model, enhancing its competitive moat [5][6] - It is focusing on expanding its presence in high-growth sectors such as renewable energy, AI servers, and electric vehicles, which are expected to drive future growth [45]

财经要闻 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 晨会纪要 联系人：陈伟业，cwy@longone.com.cn 风险提示：全球经济持续萎靡，国际地缘政治局势紧张，铝矿短期供应减少。 市场表现： 光伏板块 晨 会 纪 要 ➢ 3.美国第三季度GDP上修至3.1%，消费者支出和出口走强 2. 财经新闻 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 1.1.这边风景独好，看好国内铝业持续成长——铝行业深度报 告 联系人：付天赋，ftfu@longone.com.cn 晨会纪要 1）硅料：价格略涨。根据上下游企业 12 月排产情况，多晶硅排产有下调预期，供应量 有望回落至 10 万吨左右，硅片排产则有上调预期，月度供需关系趋于缓和。预计 12 月多晶 硅有望达到供需平衡状态。部分一二线企业试探性报价上涨，但目前真实成交还未达成，市 场仍持观望态度。2）硅片：价格略涨。本周观察，硅片端供需关系修复，总体库存快速下 降，本周库存落在 22-24 GW，环比显著下降，连带引起当前价格的反弹。3）电池片：价 格维稳。本周电池开工方面暂无变化，但出货量有所下行，厂家开始 ...

行 业 研 究 商 贸 零 售 行 业 简 评 姚星辰 S0630523010001 yxc@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 任晓帆 S0630522070001 rxf@longone.com.cn 联系人 吴康辉 wkh@longone.com.cn 联系人 陈涛 cht@longone.com.cn 申万行业指数:商贸零售(0745) 沪深300 [table_invest] 标配 [Table_NewTitle] 11月社零延续弱复苏，品类同比分化 ——11月社零报告专题 ➢ 2024年11月社零同比增长3.0%。2024年11月社会消费品零售总额43763亿元，同比增长 3.0%，低于wind一致预期（+4.6%），主要受"双十一"网购启动时间提前的影响，部分 商品销售分流至10月份。1）在农村居民收入较快增长、县域商业体系建设不断推进下， 乡村市场销售增速持续快于城镇。城镇：11月消费品零售额37596亿元，同比增长2.9%， 增速较上月环比下降1.8个百分点。乡村：11月消费品零售额6167亿元，同比增速为3.2%， 增速较上月下降1.7个百分点。2）分渠道来看，线上消费增速快于线下消 ...

Group 1: Key Recommendations - The launch of OpenAI's Sora Turbo marks a significant transformation in video generation models, reshaping the film creation process and indicating a recovery in demand within the electronics sector [7][8] - The introduction of Google's Android XR, in collaboration with Samsung, represents a major step towards practical applications of AI, AR, and VR technologies, potentially unlocking new AI capabilities at the edge [9] - The electronics industry is experiencing a mild recovery, with investment opportunities identified in AIOT, AI-driven technologies, device materials, and consumer electronics [10] Group 2: Battery and Energy Storage Industry - The production and sales of electric vehicles (EVs) reached new highs, with November 2024 figures showing a year-on-year increase of 45.8% in production and 47.4% in sales, driven by policies supporting vehicle upgrades and new product iterations [13] - The battery sector is undergoing orderly adjustments in supply, with stable pricing observed across various materials, including lithium salts and electrolytes [14] - The energy storage market remains robust, with significant growth in new installations, particularly in grid-side applications, while commercial storage development has lagged due to tightening policies [15][16] Group 3: Food and Beverage Industry - The food and beverage sector saw a 2.01% increase, outperforming the broader market, with pre-processed food experiencing the highest growth at 12.03% [18] - The central government's focus on expanding domestic demand is expected to positively impact the food and beverage sector, with a potential turning point in fundamentals anticipated for the coming year [18] - The liquor market is stabilizing, with major brands actively managing inventory and adjusting strategies to enhance sales performance [19] Group 4: Market Overview - The A-share market showed a mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.62%, while the semiconductor sector led gains with a 3.61% increase [30][32] - The overall market sentiment is improving, with a notable increase in net inflows into several sectors, indicating a potential shift in investor confidence [31] - Key market data reflects a slight decrease in financing balances and stable interest rates, suggesting a cautious but steady economic environment [36]

Group 1: Food and Beverage Industry - The food and beverage sector saw a 2.01% increase last week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.02 percentage points, ranking 7th among 31 sectors [12] - Sub-sectors experienced gains, with processed food leading at 12.03%. Top performers included Huifa Food (+60.97%), Panda Dairy (+49.38%), and Hai Xin Food (+33.82%) [12] - The central economic work conference emphasized boosting consumption and investment efficiency, positioning domestic demand expansion as a top priority for the coming year, which is expected to improve the sector's fundamentals [12] Group 2: Alcoholic Beverages - The liquor sector is stabilizing, with a focus on year-end sales performance. Major companies are expected to manage inventory actively, with cautious growth projections for 2025 [13] - Moutai's price increased slightly, with the current price at 2210 yuan, reflecting a weekly rise of 10 yuan. Other brands like Wuliangye and Guojiao 1573 maintained stable prices [13] - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with leading companies gaining market share and stable performance, suggesting a focus on high-end and regional leaders [13] Group 3: Beer Industry - The beer sector is experiencing cost improvements, with barley prices down 14% year-on-year, enhancing profitability. The demand is expected to recover due to policy stimuli [14] - Leading companies are effectively reducing inventory, anticipating improved sales in the coming year. The long-term trend remains towards premiumization [14] Group 4: Snacks and Food Supply Chain - The snack sector is diversifying channels, with growth driven by membership stores and new e-commerce platforms. Strong demand is expected during the year-end stocking season [15] - The restaurant supply chain is poised to benefit from policy incentives, with a focus on cost control amid rising operational costs [15] - The dairy sector is seeing improved demand driven by policy support, with a focus on high-end products and direct-to-consumer channels [15] Group 5: Renewable Energy Industry - The photovoltaic equipment sector declined by 4.59%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.59 percentage points, while the wind power equipment sector fell by 0.83% [19] - The silicon material prices are slightly rising, with expectations of supply adjustments leading to a balanced market by December [20] - Wind power projects are accelerating, with significant bidding activity reported, indicating a robust demand outlook for the sector [22][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Perform" rating for the aluminum industry, indicating a cautious optimism about its growth potential in the domestic market [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights the concentrated distribution of global aluminum ore reserves, primarily located in Australia, Brazil, and Guinea, with Guinea's reserves accounting for approximately 25% of the total [3][4]. - China's aluminum smelting capacity is robust, with the country producing nearly 60% of the world's primary aluminum in 2023, achieving a self-sufficiency level in production [4][59]. - The report emphasizes the correlation between aluminum consumption and macroeconomic indicators, particularly GDP growth, with a noted lag in the growth rate of the secondary industry compared to aluminum consumption [4][59]. Summary by Sections 1. Global Aluminum Ore Distribution - Global bauxite reserves are concentrated in a few countries, with Guinea holding about 7.4 billion tons, representing 25% of the total reserves [28]. - Major aluminum-producing countries include Australia, China, and Guinea, which together account for approximately 70% of global production [3][30]. - The production from key mines has been declining, with Guinea's advantages becoming more pronounced [4][48]. 2. China's Aluminum Production and Consumption - In 2023, China's primary aluminum production reached approximately 41.67 million tons, accounting for about 59% of global output, with a significant increase since 2000 [59]. - China's electrolytic aluminum consumption is projected to be around 43.26 million tons in 2023, representing over 60% of global consumption [59][60]. - The self-sufficiency rate for electrolytic aluminum in China is high, with domestic production meeting 96.2% of consumption needs [60]. 3. Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The report notes that the aluminum price dynamics are closely linked to macroeconomic indicators, with manufacturing PMI and CPI effectively reflecting aluminum price trends [4][59]. - The export of aluminum products from China to the Middle East has been increasing, with significant growth in vehicle parts and aluminum products [6][59]. - The profitability of leading aluminum companies in China has remained stable, with a trend of increasing net profit margins despite fluctuations in aluminum prices [5][59].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a focus on high-quality development under strong regulation and risk prevention frameworks, with an emphasis on optimizing product design and enhancing channel value [4][23]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the non-bank financial sector is currently at a historically low valuation, presenting significant investment opportunities. It suggests focusing on pure life insurance stocks with greater elasticity to equity markets and large comprehensive insurance companies with clear competitive advantages [4][5]. Summary by Sections Insurance Premium Data - For the first eleven months of 2024, the cumulative premium growth rates for life insurance companies are as follows: Ping An Life (+8.8%), China Life (+4.8%), PICC Life (+5.5%), Taikang Life (+2.2%), and New China Life (+2.1%). In the property insurance sector, the growth rates are: Taikang Property (+7.0%), Ping An Property (+6.8%), and PICC Property (+5.1%) [6][8]. Monthly Premium Performance - In November 2024, the monthly premium growth rates for life insurance were: New China Life (+10.5%), China Life (+4.2%), PICC Life (+1.9%), Ping An Life (-1.5%), and Taikang Life (-2.2%). For property insurance, the monthly growth rates were: PICC Property (+9.2%), Ping An Property (+9.8%), and Taikang Property (+3.1%) [3][6][8]. Market Trends and Insights - The report notes that the life insurance sector is shifting focus towards the 2025 "opening red" strategy, characterized by a predominance of dividend insurance products, innovative payment methods, and improved product value due to regulatory changes [4][5][6]. Key Growth Drivers - The growth in property insurance is supported by a strong performance in auto sales, with November auto sales growth reaching 16.6%, which positively impacts auto insurance premiums. Non-auto insurance segments, particularly health and liability insurance, also show robust growth [3][6]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the non-bank financial sector will benefit from policy support aimed at enhancing product design and channel efficiency, which is expected to drive future growth [4][5].

Key Recommendations - Electric vehicle production and sales reached new highs, and the energy storage market remains vibrant, indicating a positive outlook for the battery and energy storage industry. In November 2024, domestic new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.566 million and 1.512 million units, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 45.8% and 47.4% [11][12] - The battery sector experienced a slight decline of 1.72% during the week of December 9-15, 2024, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.72 percentage points [10][11] - The energy storage market saw a total installed capacity of 23.42 GW/58.86 GWh by the end of October 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 118% [13] Battery Sector Insights - The supply side of the industry is undergoing orderly adjustments, with prices stabilizing. Lithium carbonate prices are fluctuating due to ongoing negotiations between supply and demand [11] - The demand for lithium salt, anode materials, and electrolytes remains stable, with the market for separators also showing consistent demand [11][12] Energy Storage Sector Insights - The energy storage market continues to show high growth, with 11 new bidding projects and 15 winning projects reported in the week ending December 13, 2024. The total scale of the winning projects was 3.21 GW/22.52 GWh [13] - The commercial storage sector is lagging behind expectations, with new installations in this area showing a year-on-year decline of 46% [13] Electronic Industry Insights - OpenAI's launch of the Sora Turbo video model is expected to revolutionize video creation processes, enhancing efficiency and flexibility in the film and content creation industries [18][19] - Google's release of Android XR, in collaboration with Samsung, marks a significant step towards integrating AI, AR, and VR technologies, potentially unlocking new applications in edge AI [20] Economic Data Observations - In November 2024, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.0% year-on-year, while fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year growth of 3.3% [24][25] - The real estate sector showed signs of improvement, with the sales area of commercial housing turning positive for the first time since April 2023, indicating a potential recovery [26] Market Performance - The electronic sector outperformed the broader market, with the Shenwan Electronics Index rising by 0.22% while the CSI 300 Index fell by 1.01% [21] - The A-share market experienced a slight decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 0.16% [43][44]

Investment Rating - The report rates the food and beverage industry as "Overweight" [2] Core Views - The food and beverage sector has shown a positive market performance, with a 2.01% increase last week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.02 percentage points [2] - The central economic work conference emphasizes the importance of boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand, which is expected to improve the sector's fundamentals in the coming year [2] - The beer segment is experiencing cost improvements and significant inventory reduction, with expectations for demand recovery in the coming year [1][3] - The white liquor sector is stabilizing, with major companies cautiously optimistic about sales performance towards the end of the year [3] - The snack food segment is benefiting from diversified sales channels, while the restaurant supply chain is expected to recover due to policy support [4] Summary by Sections Beer - The beer industry is seeing a notable reduction in inventory and improved profitability due to declining raw material costs, with imported barley prices down 14% year-on-year as of October [1] - The demand for beer is anticipated to gradually improve, particularly in on-premise consumption scenarios, supported by policy stimuli [1] - Long-term trends indicate a continued shift towards premiumization in the beer market, with a recommendation to focus on leading brands like Qingdao Beer [1] White Liquor - The white liquor sector is stabilizing, with major companies like Moutai and Wuliangye maintaining cautious growth targets for 2025 [3] - Recent price updates show slight increases in Moutai's prices, with the current price for scattered Moutai at 2210 yuan, reflecting a 10 yuan increase week-on-week [3] - The sector is expected to benefit from ongoing policy support, with a focus on year-end sales performance [3] Snacks and Restaurant Supply Chain - The snack food market is experiencing rapid growth due to the emergence of diverse sales channels, including membership supermarkets and new e-commerce platforms [4] - The restaurant supply chain is positioned to benefit from policy incentives aimed at stimulating consumption, with a focus on cost control amid rising operational challenges [4] Dairy Products - The dairy sector is witnessing improved demand driven by policy support, with a focus on high-end products and increasing acceptance of low-temperature dairy products [4] - Recommendations include monitoring companies that are upgrading their product structures and enhancing direct-to-consumer (DTC) channel penetration [4] Investment Recommendations - For the white liquor sector, focus on high-end brands and regional leaders such as Moutai and Wuliangye [5] - In the beer segment, attention is drawn to premium brands like Qingdao Beer [5] - The snack food sector highlights companies with strong growth potential like Yanjinpuzi and Gan Yuan Food [5] - The restaurant supply chain suggests investing in resilient and undervalued companies like Anji Food and Qianwei Central Kitchen [5] - In dairy, focus on companies that are upgrading their product offerings and expanding DTC channels [5]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the automotive industry, particularly in the new energy vehicle (NEV) segment, with a focus on growth opportunities driven by policy support and market demand [5][6]. Core Insights - The automotive sector is experiencing a high growth trajectory, with significant increases in retail and wholesale sales, particularly for passenger vehicles and NEVs. The report highlights that November saw retail sales of 2.423 million units, a year-on-year increase of 17%, and wholesale sales of 2.940 million units, up 15% year-on-year [6][51]. - The penetration rate of NEVs remains high, with retail sales reaching 1.268 million units in November, reflecting a 51% year-on-year increase. The report notes that the retail penetration rate for NEVs reached 52.3%, up 12 percentage points year-on-year [7][33]. - The report emphasizes the impact of the "old-for-new" vehicle replacement policy, which has contributed to sustained high growth in passenger vehicle retail sales. As of December 13, applications for vehicle scrapping and replacement subsidies exceeded 520,000 units [6][32]. Market Performance - The automotive sector outperformed the broader market, with the automotive index rising by 0.66% while the CSI 300 index fell by 1.01%. Among sub-sectors, passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, and automotive services showed positive performance [5][36]. - In the NEV segment, major domestic brands such as BYD, Geely, and Chery reported substantial year-on-year growth in retail sales, with BYD achieving 417,000 units sold, a 59% increase [6][58]. Industry Data Tracking - The report provides detailed sales data, indicating that the total automotive production in November was 3.437 million units, a 11% year-on-year increase, while sales reached 3.316 million units, up 12% year-on-year [60]. - The report also highlights inventory levels, with the comprehensive inventory coefficient for automotive dealers at 1.11, indicating a slight increase from the previous month [69]. New Model Tracking - The report mentions the upcoming launch of the Xiaomi YU7 SUV, expected to debut in mid-2024, which aims to strengthen Xiaomi's position in the mid-to-high-end market segment [8][34].