[Table_Reportdate] 2024年12月27日 博迈科 沪深300 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 吴骏燕 S0630517120001 wjyan@longone.com.cn 联系人 花雨欣 hyx@longone.com.cn [Table_QuotePic] -33% -22% -12% -1% 10% 21% 32% 43% 23-12 24-03 24-06 24-09 ——公司深度报告 ➢ FPSO引领海工市场，博迈科持续发力走向高端：近年来全球海洋油气勘探开发投资大幅 增加。FPSO作为海上浮式生产储卸油装置，当前订单数量已逐渐恢复，租赁模式和标准 化装置的应用一定程度减弱短期油价变动对于FPSO投资积极性的影响，FPSO未来投资 将更趋于稳定性和长期性，SinorigOffshore预计2024年-2028年全球将新增48艘FPSO订 单，市场呈现高景气。博迈科作为全球FPSO上部模块重要建造 ...

证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 | --- | --- | |-------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | | | 正文目录 | | | | | | 1. 重点推荐 | | | 1.1. 央企市值管理强化，偿二代二期延长一年过渡期――非银金融行业周报 | | | ( 20241216-20241222 ) . | | | 1.2. 年末乘用车市场维持高景气，蔚来发布全新品牌 firefly 萤火虫――汽车行业 | | | 周报（2024/12/16-2024/12/22 ） | | | 1.3. 装备制造业有效拉动工业生产，铁路固定资产投资同比增长 -- 机械设备行 | | | 业周报（ 20241216-20241222 ） . | 2. 财经新闻 3. A 股市场评述 晨 会 纪 要 [Table_Report] [Table_Reportdate] 2024年12月25日 [晨会纪要 Ta ...

晨 会 纪 要 [table_main] 重点推荐 ➢ 1.央行平价缩量续作MLF。 | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | 正文目录 | | | 1. 重点推荐 | | | 1.1. 安徽合力( 600761 ): 全产业链国产叉车龙头进军全球市场――公司深度报告 …… | | | 1.2. 五粮液经销商大会定调积极，微信小店增加新场景――食品饮料行业周报 | | | ( 2024/12/16-2024/12/22 ) | | 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 1.重点推荐 叉车全球市场广阔，海外巨头份额较大。叉车全球销量保持稳定增长态势，2013-2023 年叉车的销售量从 98.88 万台上升至 210.15 万台，年复合增长率达 7.83%。2023 年丰田、 凯傲、永恒力占据行业前三，共占主要市场份额达 50%以上。国外龙头起步较早，市场占有 率较高。全球成规模公司收入 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Anhui Heli (600761) as it is considered a leading domestic forklift manufacturer with a comprehensive industry chain [4][17]. Core Viewpoints - Anhui Heli is a state-owned enterprise and a leader in the forklift industry, actively promoting globalization. The company has a strong presence in the global market with over 300 overseas agents covering more than 150 countries [16][28]. - The global forklift market is expanding, with significant shares held by overseas giants. The report highlights the increasing competitiveness of domestic manufacturers like Anhui Heli, which is narrowing the gap with international leaders [9][126]. - The company is expected to benefit from trends in electrification and automation, with a focus on lithium battery technology and intelligent logistics solutions [93][143]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Anhui Heli has been a key player in the forklift industry since its establishment in 1958, with a comprehensive product range covering various tonnage levels and types [28][29]. - The company has optimized its supply chain and production capabilities, establishing multiple manufacturing bases across China [29]. Market Analysis - The global forklift market has shown stable growth, with sales increasing from 988,800 units in 2013 to 2,101,500 units in 2023, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 7.83% [33][110]. - The domestic forklift market is also growing, with sales rising from 138,900 units in 2009 to 1,173,800 units in 2023, achieving a compound annual growth rate of 16.47% [76][87]. Financial Performance - In 2023, Anhui Heli achieved a revenue of 17.471 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.47%, with a net profit of 1.278 billion yuan, up 41.36% [48][67]. - The company forecasts net profits of 1.415 billion yuan, 1.587 billion yuan, and 1.866 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11.53, 10.28, and 8.74 [17][165]. Strategic Initiatives - Anhui Heli is focusing on expanding its global footprint and enhancing its product offerings through technological innovation, particularly in electric and intelligent forklifts [93][148]. - The company is also investing in key projects to bolster its competitive edge, including the construction of new manufacturing facilities and the development of high-end components [69][70]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued growth in Anhui Heli's sales and profitability, driven by the global demand for forklifts and the company's strategic initiatives in electrification and automation [17][165]. - The company is well-positioned to capture a larger share of the global market as it enhances its brand recognition and operational efficiency [9][126].

[晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20241224 ➢ 1.字节豆包视觉理解模型发布，美光科技数据中心业务增长强劲——电子行业周报 （2024/12/16-2024/12/22） ➢ 4.以旧换新推进顺利，储能低价行持延续——电池及储能行业周报（2024/12/16- 2024/12/22） 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 4. 市场数据 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 电子板块观点：字节跳动豆包大模型全面升级，并发布豆包视觉理解模型，千 tokens 输入价格仅为 3 厘，为行业价格的 15%；美光科技 2025 财年第一财季营收同比增长 84.1%， 数据中心收入同比增长超过 400%，环比增幅达 40%以上，其中 HBM 收入实现连续两个季 度环比翻倍增长，但下季展望低于市场预期；当前电子行业需求处于温和复苏阶段，建议关 注 AIOT、AI 驱动、设备材料、消费电子周期筑底板块四大投资主线。 [Table_Report] [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 方霁 S0630523060001 fangji@ ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Neutral" indicating that the industry index is expected to fluctuate within -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [97]. Core Insights - NIO has officially launched the ET9, a smart electric flagship model priced at 788,000 yuan, featuring advanced perception hardware and a fully controlled intelligent chassis. Additionally, NIO introduced a new brand, Firefly, targeting the high-end small car market with a pre-sale price of 148,800 yuan for its first model [4][86]. - Geely's new model, Galaxy Starship 7 EM-i, has achieved over 10,000 deliveries within 13 days of its launch, with a significant monthly sales increase of 121% in November [11][62]. - The retail sales of passenger cars in December are expected to grow by 15% year-on-year, supported by the continuation of trade-in policies and increased local subsidies [49][55]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Highlights - NIO's new brand Firefly aims to expand into the high-end small car market, with a product matrix targeting various price segments [4][86]. - Geely's Galaxy Starship 7 EM-i has shown strong market performance, indicating a shift towards electric vehicles [11][62]. 2. Industry Data Tracking - According to the China Passenger Car Association, retail sales of passenger cars reached 1.083 million units in the first half of December, a year-on-year increase of 34% [14][55]. - The retail sales of new energy vehicles during the same period reached 536,000 units, reflecting a 71% year-on-year growth [14][55]. 3. Market Performance - The automotive sector overall saw a decline of 1.05% this week, with specific segments such as passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles experiencing varied performance [87]. - The automotive parts sector showed mixed results, with some sub-segments like body accessories and chassis systems facing declines [87]. 4. New Model Tracking - New models launched include Chery's iCAR V23 and other vehicles, indicating ongoing innovation in the market [92]. - The introduction of new models is expected to drive sales growth, particularly in the electric vehicle segment [50][62]. 5. Industry Dynamics - The competitive landscape in the automotive industry is intensifying, with companies focusing on innovation and market expansion [20][78]. - The establishment of new manufacturing facilities, such as Yutong's electric commercial vehicle factory in Qatar, highlights the industry's growth and international expansion efforts [95].

Investment Rating - The report rates the market index as "Overweight" and the industry index as "Overweight" [20][26] Core Insights - The trend of domestic substitution continues, with fixed asset investment in specific sectors showing bright spots. National statistics indicate that from January to November 2024, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 3.3% year-on-year, with manufacturing investment contributing 68.1% to total investment growth, up 2.5 percentage points from the previous month. High-tech manufacturing investment grew by 8.2% year-on-year, with aerospace and communication equipment manufacturing investments increasing by 35.4% and 8.8%, respectively [1][39] - The rail transit equipment industry is expected to maintain a favorable outlook, with companies such as CRRC Corporation, China Railway Signal & Communication Corp, and Jin Chuang Group being highlighted for potential investment opportunities [2] Summary by Sections Macro Data - The equipment manufacturing sector plays a crucial role in supporting industrial production, with a year-on-year increase of 7.6% in the added value of large-scale equipment manufacturing in November 2024. The automotive and electronics sectors contributed 32.6% to the overall industrial growth. The policy effects of equipment updates are becoming evident, with significant growth in various equipment manufacturing sectors [31][63] Rail Transit Equipment - The rail sector has seen record passenger volumes, with over 4 billion passengers transported from January to November 2024, and fixed asset investment in railways reaching 711.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.1%. The total operating mileage of railways has surpassed 160,000 kilometers, with high-speed rail accounting for over 46,000 kilometers [27][40] Engineering Machinery - Major companies like SANY and XCMG showcased their innovations at the Shanghai Bauma Exhibition, focusing on electric and intelligent machinery solutions. SANY presented its E-MOVE fully electric excavator and various electric products tailored for mining operations, while XCMG emphasized its comprehensive solutions for tunnel construction and green mining equipment [67][68]

➢ 行情回顾：上周非银指数下跌1.7%，相较沪深300超涨1.6pp，其中券商与保险指数呈现同 步下跌态势，分别为-1.46%和-2.23%，保险指数超跌明显。市场数据方面，上周市场股基 日均成交额17361亿元，环比上一周降低20.1%；两融余额1.89万亿元，环比上一周基本 持平；股票质押市值2.86万亿元，环比上一周降低2.5%。 行业周报 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------|----------|------------|----------|------------------|--------------|------------| | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 最新收盘价 | 周涨跌幅 | 周成交额（亿元） | A/H 溢价率 | A-PEV(25E) | | 601336.SH | 新华保险 | 49.64 | -0.5% | 38.53 | 130% | 0.52 | | 601628.SH | 中国人寿 | 41.43 | -1.7% | 24.48 | 208% | 0.79 | | 601319.SH | ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Bullish" with expectations of a significant increase in the market index over the next six months [51]. Core Insights - The domestic energy storage market is expected to maintain a favorable demand outlook, with a total of 43.74GW/149.71GWh of energy storage procurement completed from January to November [3]. - The report highlights the successful implementation of the vehicle replacement policy, which has positively impacted the industry’s overall sentiment [10]. - The report suggests focusing on companies like CATL and Shunfeng, which are positioned to benefit from the ongoing upgrades in the energy grid and the increasing demand for energy storage solutions [1][15]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Highlights - The battery sector is experiencing a steady increase in demand, with December's retail sales of new energy vehicles expected to reach 1.4 million units, indicating a penetration rate of approximately 51.9% [21]. - The energy storage sector is seeing a decline in system pricing, with the lowest bid for a 4-hour energy storage system dropping below 0.4 yuan/Wh [3]. - Companies like Shunfeng Electric have achieved a full industry chain layout in energy storage, enhancing their market position [11][15]. 2. Market Performance - The battery sector saw an overall decline of 1.99% in the week of December 16-22, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.85 percentage points [34]. - Major inflows were observed in companies such as Kehua Data and Xianlead Intelligent, while significant outflows were noted for CATL and Sungrow [34]. 3. Industry Data Tracking - The average winning bid for energy storage EPC projects was approximately 0.95 yuan/Wh, reflecting a 17.2% decrease week-on-week [28]. - The report indicates that the lithium salt prices are on a downward trend, with industrial-grade lithium carbonate priced at 71,900 yuan/ton, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.55% [13]. 4. Company News - Envision Energy secured a major storage order in South Africa, providing battery storage systems for three independent projects with a total capacity of 257MW/1028MWh [46]. - The report notes that companies like Dewei and Longyuan Power are actively expanding their energy storage capabilities through new projects and partnerships [48].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Market Weight" [16] Core Viewpoints - The beauty and personal care sector has shown a decline, with the Shenzheng 300 index down 0.14% and the Shenwan beauty and personal care index down 2.75%, underperforming the market by 2.61 percentage points, ranking nineteenth among all Shenwan first-level industries [18][28] - The introduction of the "Gift Giving" feature by WeChat Shop is expected to enhance e-commerce activity, particularly benefiting beauty products as gifting options [18] - The report highlights the approval of various medical devices and products, indicating ongoing innovation and regulatory progress within the industry [19][50] Market Performance - The top five gaining stocks in the sector this week were Reliable Co. (28.65%), Marubi (11.57%), Nobon (11.23%), Dengkang Oral (5.97%), and Shuiyang (4.22%) [2][18] - The top five losing stocks were ST Meigu (−12.17%), Jieya (−10.00%), Huaxi (−8.87%), Liangmian Needle (−8.15%), and Jiahen Home (−8.15%) [2][18] Company News - Aimeike has received a notice of acceptance for the registration of "Injectable Type A Botulinum Toxin" from the National Medical Products Administration, with the project delayed until December 31, 2025 [19] - Juzhi Biological's bone repair material has been approved as a Class III medical device, suitable for filling and repairing jawbone and alveolar bone defects [6][19] - Jiangsu Wuzhong has received medical device registration certificates for its recombinant collagen products [48] - Furuida's medical-grade recombinant type III humanized collagen raw materials have successfully completed main document registration [50] Industry Trends - The beauty and personal care industry is experiencing intensified competition, with domestic brands facing pressure from foreign brands [10] - The retail sales of cosmetics in November 2024 were 43.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.4%, with cumulative retail sales from January to November down 1.3% [34][51] - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong product capabilities and high consumer recognition, particularly in the context of the new channels provided by WeChat Shop [19]