东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 分析师推荐 【东兴非银】证券行业：学习两会精神，行业监管改革稳步推进 （20250314） 事件：3 月 11 日，中国证监会党委召开扩大会议，深入学习习近平总书记在 全国两会期间的重要讲话精神和全国两会精神，研究部署资本市场贯彻落实 具体举措。 点评：会议指出要紧扣防风险、强监管、促高质量发展的工作主线，加快推 进新一轮资本市场改革开放，不断筑牢股市健康发展的根基。具体举措包括： 1.全力巩固市场回稳向好势头。强化上市公司增强回报投资者的意识和能力， 更大力度推动中长期资金入市指导意见及实施方案落实落地，加强战略性力 量储备和稳市机制建设，坚决守住风险底线； 2.在支持科技创新和新质生产力发展上持续加力。增强制度包容性、适应性， 支持优质未盈利科技企业发行上市，稳妥恢复科创板第五套标准适用，尽快 推出具有示范意义的典型案例，更好促进科技创新和产业创新融合发展； 3.进一步全面深化资本市场改革。以深化投融资综合改革为牵引，全面启动 实施新一轮资本市场改革，推动各项改革举措平稳落地，取得可感可及的改 革成果； 4.坚定扩大资本市场高水平制度型开放。研究制定资本市场对外开放总体规 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the index is expected to break through strongly, with consumer sectors becoming the core drivers of growth, replacing the previous focus on technology sectors [1][2] - The introduction of the "Consumption Promotion Special Action Plan" marks a significant turning point for consumer recovery, driven primarily by policy rather than economic recovery [2][7] - The report suggests that the consumer sector is currently in a mid-term bottoming phase, with substantial investment opportunities as policies begin to take effect [2][19] Policy and Economic Environment - The "Consumption Promotion Special Action Plan" outlines 30 key tasks across eight areas aimed at boosting domestic demand and enhancing consumer capacity [7][8] - The plan addresses critical issues affecting consumption, including income growth for urban and rural residents, service quality improvements, and the removal of restrictive measures [7][8] - The report indicates that the overall economic environment is gradually stabilizing, with expectations for consumer demand recovery improving due to recent policy announcements [8][19] Sector Performance and Investment Recommendations - The report highlights a shift towards consumer stocks, suggesting that even if short-term performance does not improve rapidly, market expectations can change, leading to valuation adjustments [2][19] - Specific recommendations include focusing on consumer sectors such as liquor and seasoning products, with companies like Kweichow Moutai and Yanjin Jvquan being highlighted for their potential [19] - The report also notes that the financial sector is expected to perform well during the annual report period, suggesting a balanced investment approach between consumer and cyclical stocks [2][19] Market Trends - The report indicates that the A-share market is experiencing a slow bull trend, with increased opportunities for rotation among sectors as the focus shifts back to fundamentals [13][14] - The consumer sector is expected to benefit from a gradual recovery in economic conditions, with the potential for significant upside as policies are implemented [19][20] - The report notes that the food and beverage sector is showing signs of recovery, with specific sub-sectors like white liquor and snacks being recommended for investment [19][20]

Macro - The government has set a GDP target of 5% for 2025, with a fiscal deficit rate of 4% and a CPI target of 2%, all aligning with market expectations [3][15][23] - The fiscal policy remains focused on increasing efforts, with a significant rise in the fiscal deficit rate by 1 percentage point, and an increase in the issuance of special bonds to maintain banking system stability [3][16] - The emphasis on consumption has notably increased, with the term "consumption" appearing 28 times in the government work report, up from 16 times the previous year [3][17] A-Share Strategy - The index is expected to break through strongly, with consumer stocks taking the lead over technology stocks, driven by policy catalysts [4][20] - The "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption" outlines 30 key tasks across eight areas, indicating a comprehensive approach to stimulate consumption [4][20] - The market is shifting towards value, with a focus on consumer and cyclical stocks, while maintaining attention on the technology sector as a long-term investment direction [4][20][21] Bond Market - The government work report's economic targets are in line with market expectations, with local special bond issuance set at 4.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 500 billion yuan from 2024 [9][23] - The bond market is expected to remain in a weak oscillation, with short-term interest rates showing investment value while long-term rates are anticipated to fluctuate within a range [9][25] Banking Sector - The banking sector is projected to maintain stable asset growth under positive fiscal policies, with net interest margin pressure being manageable [10][28] - The market is seeing a shift towards growth, cycle, consumption, and finance, with banks offering low valuations and stable high dividend attributes [10][27] Real Estate - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with new and second-hand home transactions recovering, particularly in second-hand homes [11][30] - Various policy tools are expected to work together to gradually stabilize the real estate market, with a focus on leading companies with core city resources [11][30] Non-Banking Financials - The securities market remains active, with significant trading volumes and a positive outlook for technology-driven growth in the sector [12][32] - The insurance sector is expected to face slower growth in 2025 compared to 2024, but the recovery of the equity market may alleviate some pressures [13][33]

东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 分析师推荐 【东兴策略】指数有望强势突破 消费迎来重要拐点（20250318） 指数有望强势突破。 我们上周重点强调了要重视消费，从周五指数全面上涨来看，大消费接替前 期大科技板块成为领涨核心。一方面政策催化是行情启动的催化剂，两会后 政策持续落地是我们看好消费的重要依据，从目前政策导向来看，中共中央 办公厅、国务院办公厅近日印发《提振消费专项行动方案》。行动方案部署 了 8 方面 30 项重点任务，包括城乡居民增收促进行动、消费能力保障支持 行动、服务消费提质惠民行动、大宗消费更新升级行动、消费品质提升行动、 消费环境改善提升行动、限制措施清理优化行动、完善支持政策。国家通过 综合性方案解决消费问题的态度是十分坚决的，启动消费不是依靠某个政策， 而是全方位综合性提出整体方案，无论是金融机构，还是上至部委，下至各 地区，都从自身角度出发推出刺激消费政策。从内蒙生育政策落地来看，未 来各地都有可能出台类似政策，要重视政策对生育刺激的后续效果，我们认 为，政策刺激力度还是比较大的。前期，我们一直强调大科技板块是最核心 板块，短期调整更多是交易层面的节奏问题，展望后市，大科技板块仍然 ...

食品饮料行业：生育政策加码， 利好国产婴配粉龙头企业 各地发放生育补贴有利于出生率的提升。3 月 13 日，内蒙古呼和浩特市卫 健委网站发布落实《关于促进人口集聚推动人口高质量发展的实施意见》 育儿补贴项目实施细则及服务流程：生育一孩一次性发放育儿补贴 1 万元， 生育二孩发放育儿补贴 5 万元，分 5 年发放，每年 1 万元，生育三孩及以 上的发放育儿补贴 10 万元，分 10 年发放，每年 1 万元。我们认为出生率 低是该市大额发放生育补贴的主要原因之一。与呼和浩特类似，湖北天门 市二孩补贴也较高，加上住房补贴达到 9.63 万元，三孩补贴达到 16.51 万 元。补贴推出后，2024 年天门市出生人口大涨 17%，8 年来首次由降转增， 因此较大力度的补贴将有效刺激出生率上升。2024 年，我国出生人口达到 954 万人，自 2017 年以来首次回升。这一变化主要得益于生育意愿的累 积释放、生育支持政策的逐步落实以及龙年生肖偏好等因素。今年为蛇年， 蛇通常被称为小龙，符合传统生肖偏好，我们认为天门及呼和浩特等城市 强有力的生育政策有望带动其他城市效仿从而带动今年乃至未来全国出生 率。 下线城市更为受益。 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that the index is expected to break through strongly, with consumer stocks taking the lead over the previously dominant technology sector. This shift is supported by ongoing policy catalysts, particularly the recent issuance of the "Consumption Promotion Special Action Plan" by the central government, which outlines 30 key tasks across eight areas to stimulate consumption [4][8]. - The report highlights that the comprehensive approach to stimulate consumption reflects a strong governmental commitment, indicating that various levels of government and financial institutions are expected to implement policies to boost consumer spending. The potential impact of local policies, such as those related to birth rates, is also noted as a significant factor for future consumption trends [4][5]. - The report suggests that while the technology sector remains a key focus, the current market sentiment is shifting towards value, with a notable rise in consumer stocks. The index is anticipated to experience a strong breakthrough, supported by the financial sector [4][9]. Group 2 - The report identifies a potential turning point for consumption, marking the introduction of the "Consumption Promotion Special Action Plan" as a significant milestone. It argues that the recovery of consumption will primarily be driven by policy rather than a swift economic rebound, indicating a gradual process ahead [5][9]. - The report advises investors to actively allocate resources towards the consumer sector, as it is expected to experience a slow bull market. Even if short-term performance does not improve rapidly, changes in market expectations could lead to earlier valuation adjustments [5][9]. - The report also suggests a balanced investment strategy, recommending a focus on consumer stocks and cyclical sectors, while highlighting the potential of the military industry, particularly in segments like drones and missiles, as areas of interest [5][9].

指数有望强势突破 消费迎来重要拐点 2025 年 3 月 18 日 A 股策略 策略周报 | | | 周度观点： 指数有望强势突破。我们上周重点强调了要重视消费，从周五指数全面上涨来看，大消费接替前期大科技板块成为领涨 核心。一方面政策催化是行情启动的催化剂，两会后政策持续落地是我们看好消费的重要依据，从目前政策导向来看， 中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅近日印发《提振消费专项行动方案》。行动方案部署了 8 方面 30 项重点任务，包括城乡 居民增收促进行动、消费能力保障支持行动、服务消费提质惠民行动、大宗消费更新升级行动、消费品质提升行动、消 费环境改善提升行动、限制措施清理优化行动、完善支持政策。国家通过综合性方案解决消费问题的态度是十分坚决的， 启动消费不是依靠某个政策，而是全方位综合性提出整体方案，无论是金融机构，还是上至部委，下至各地区，都从自 身角度出发推出刺激消费政策。从内蒙生育政策落地来看，未来各地都有可能出台类似政策，要重视政策对生育刺激的 后续效果，我们认为，政策刺激力度还是比较大的。前期，我们一直强调大科技板块是最核心板块，短期调整更多是交 易层面的节奏问题，展望后市，大科技板块仍然是重点关 ...

东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 分析师推荐 【东兴电子】兴森科技（002436.SZ）：深耕 PCB 行业，受益于 AI+ 国产替代双轮驱动（20250317） 公司是国内 PCB 样板快件、批量板细分领域的龙头企业，股权结构稳定。 根据 Prismark 公布的 2023 年全球 PCB 前四十大供应商，公司位列第二十 九名。公司产品应用于通信、工控、轨道交通、医疗电子、计算机及外设、 半导体等领域，资源遍及全球三十多个国家和地区。公司股权结构稳定，各 子公司分工明确，协同合作。截至 2024 年三季度报，邱醒亚作为公司实际 控制人，占股 14.46%，为第一大股东。 公司围绕"PCB"与"半导体"两大核心业务，近年来 IC 封装基板营收占 比不断提升。公司半导体业务聚焦 IC 封装基板，国产化进程加快，产能有望 进一步提升。FCBGA 封装基板已通过多家客户认证、交付数款样品订单， 现已进入小批量量产阶段。公司 PCB 样板、小批量板保持总营收 75%以上 的占比，IC 封装基板在 2020-2023 年间营收占比不断提升，截至 2023 年已 占总营收的 15.32%。 公司在面临 2023 年 PCB ...

东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 分析师推荐 【东兴电子】兴森科技（002436.SZ）：深耕 PCB 行业，受益于 AI+ 国产替代双轮驱动（20250317） 公司是国内 PCB 样板快件、批量板细分领域的龙头企业，股权结构稳定。 根据 Prismark 公布的 2023 年全球 PCB 前四十大供应商，公司位列第二十 九名。公司产品应用于通信、工控、轨道交通、医疗电子、计算机及外设、 半导体等领域，资源遍及全球三十多个国家和地区。公司股权结构稳定，各 子公司分工明确，协同合作。截至 2024 年三季度报，邱醒亚作为公司实际 控制人，占股 14.46%，为第一大股东。 公司围绕"PCB"与"半导体"两大核心业务，近年来 IC 封装基板营收占 比不断提升。公司半导体业务聚焦 IC 封装基板，国产化进程加快，产能有望 进一步提升。FCBGA 封装基板已通过多家客户认证、交付数款样品订单， 现已进入小批量量产阶段。公司 PCB 样板、小批量板保持总营收 75%以上 的占比，IC 封装基板在 2020-2023 年间营收占比不断提升，截至 2023 年已 占总营收的 15.32%。 公司在面临 2023 年 PCB ...

越秀交通基建（01052.HK）：平临高速将增厚 25 年业绩，收费权摊销略高于预期 2025 年 3 月 17 日 强烈推荐/维持 越秀交通基建 公司报告 事件：公司发布 24 年年报，全年实现收入 38.7 亿元，同比下降 2.5%，其中路 费收入 37.9 亿元，同比下降 1.4%。归母净利润 6.57 亿元，同比下降 14.2%， 公司业绩符合预期。 极端天气和部分路段的路网分流导致报告期收入端有所下降：24 年公司路费收 入下降的原因主要系：1. 我国中东部地区受 24 年春节前后大范围雨雪低温冰冻 天气影响；2. 报告期节假日免费通行天数较 23 年多 3 天；3. 部分项目受路网分 流影响。 路网分流方面，具体到各个路产：1. 公司核心路产广州北二环高速收入同比下降 6.2%，主要系 23 年 10 月开始与北二环高速相连的从浦高速开通，导致部分车 流行驶路径缩短；2. 湖北汉蔡高速收入同比下降 8.3%，除了极端天气影响外， 23 年平行路段封闭施工导致基数较高也是 24 年收入下降的因素；3. 湖北汉鄂高 速和大广南高速收入分别同比增长 58.1%和下降 11.9%，主要系武黄高速封闭施 工 ...