宁波高发（603788.SH）：受益汽车 电动智能化趋势，公司强成本控制、 高效率将持续领先 公司为汽车变速操纵控制系统龙头企业。成立于 1999 年，实控人为钱氏家族， 主营产品包括汽车变速操纵系统总成、电子油门踏板和汽车拉索等三大类， 2023 年营收占比分别为 51%/18%/18%。公司客户充分覆盖吉利、比亚迪、长 城、长安、赛力斯、奇瑞等几十家国内头部主机厂。 电动化/智能化趋势带动电子换挡器/油门踏板产品需求增长。电子电气架构革 新推动汽车电子产品在整车中的渗透率不断提升。线控换挡系统可与自动驾驶 控制系统中自适应巡航系统、驾驶模式控制系统等结合。公司主营产品电子换 挡器、电子油门踏板等受益新能源电动化和智能化的趋势，在新能源渗透率持 续提升的背景下，产品份额有望保持增长。 自主品牌配套份额大幅领先同业，有望发力合资与海外市场。2024 年我国自 主品牌乘用车销量 1,385 万辆，同比+23%，占比 60%。公司产品主要配套自 主品牌，自主品牌销量占比持续提升带动公司电子换挡器与电子油门踏板产品 出货量增长，2023 年公司乘用车电子油门踏板市占率 26%，基于自主品牌乘 用车销量测算公司占自主 ...

越秀交通基建（01052.HK）：平临高速将增厚 25 年业绩，收费权摊销略高于预期 2025 年 3 月 17 日 强烈推荐/维持 越秀交通基建 公司报告 事件：公司发布 24 年年报，全年实现收入 38.7 亿元，同比下降 2.5%，其中路 费收入 37.9 亿元，同比下降 1.4%。归母净利润 6.57 亿元，同比下降 14.2%， 公司业绩符合预期。 极端天气和部分路段的路网分流导致报告期收入端有所下降：24 年公司路费收 入下降的原因主要系：1. 我国中东部地区受 24 年春节前后大范围雨雪低温冰冻 天气影响；2. 报告期节假日免费通行天数较 23 年多 3 天；3. 部分项目受路网分 流影响。 路网分流方面，具体到各个路产：1. 公司核心路产广州北二环高速收入同比下降 6.2%，主要系 23 年 10 月开始与北二环高速相连的从浦高速开通，导致部分车 流行驶路径缩短；2. 湖北汉蔡高速收入同比下降 8.3%，除了极端天气影响外， 23 年平行路段封闭施工导致基数较高也是 24 年收入下降的因素；3. 湖北汉鄂高 速和大广南高速收入分别同比增长 58.1%和下降 11.9%，主要系武黄高速封闭施 工 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a projected PE of 19.8x for 2024, 15.9x for 2025, and 12.9x for 2026, indicating a positive outlook for the company's performance [11]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the automotive electronic shifting and throttle control systems, benefiting from the trends of electrification and intelligence in the automotive industry. Its strong cost control and high efficiency are expected to maintain its competitive edge [1][4]. - The company has a significant market share in the domestic automotive market, particularly with independent brands, and is poised to expand into joint ventures and overseas markets [2][4]. - The company's financial health is robust, with stable cash flow and increasing dividends, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [3][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 1999, specializes in automotive shifting control systems, electronic throttle pedals, and cables, with a revenue distribution of 51% from shifting systems, 18% from electronic throttle pedals, and 18% from cables in 2023 [1][16]. - It has a strong customer base, including major domestic manufacturers like Geely, BYD, and Great Wall [1][16]. Product Demand and Market Position - The demand for electronic shifting systems and throttle pedals is increasing due to the trends of electrification and automation in vehicles. The penetration of automotive electronics is expected to rise significantly, with the company poised to capture a growing market share [1][42]. - The company has a competitive advantage in supplying independent brands, with an estimated market share of nearly 50% in this segment, and is expanding its reach to joint venture and overseas markets [2][4]. Financial Performance and Efficiency - The company has demonstrated excellent cost control and operational efficiency, with a management expense ratio approximately 10 percentage points lower than industry peers. Its inventory turnover and fixed asset turnover rates are consistently above industry averages [3][4]. - The company has maintained a stable cash flow, with an average net inflow of 150 million yuan annually since its listing, and a cash dividend payout ratio consistently above 70% [3][4]. Profit Forecast and Investment Value - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 1.49 billion yuan, 1.73 billion yuan, and 2.03 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 18.0%, 16.2%, and 16.9% [4][12]. - The projected net profit for the same years is 201 million yuan, 250 million yuan, and 309 million yuan, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [4][12].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [4][27] Core Insights - In February, new home prices in first-tier cities increased month-on-month, while second-hand home prices across all city tiers continued to decline [1][3] - The year-on-year decline in new and second-hand home prices across various city tiers has narrowed [2][3] Summary by Sections Month-on-Month Price Changes - In February, the new residential sales price index for 70 large and medium-sized cities showed a month-on-month growth rate of -0.1%, unchanged from the previous value [1] - The new residential sales price index for first-tier cities increased by 0.1%, with Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou showing month-on-month growth rates of 0.1%, 0.2%, 0.4%, and -0.2% respectively [1] - The second-hand residential price index for 70 cities decreased by 0.3%, consistent with the previous value [1] Year-on-Year Price Changes - The year-on-year growth rate for the new residential sales price index across 70 cities was -5.2%, an improvement from -5.4% [2] - The first-tier cities' new residential sales price index year-on-year growth rate was -3.0%, compared to -3.4% previously [2] - The second-hand residential price index for 70 cities showed a year-on-year decline of -7.5%, slightly better than -7.8% previously [2] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that various policy tools working in tandem are expected to stabilize the real estate market gradually [3] - Short-term focus should be on valuation recovery opportunities due to policy easing, while long-term focus should be on leading companies with core city resources and real estate operational capabilities [3] - Recommended companies include Poly Developments, China Resources Land, China Merchants Shekou, Greentown China, and Yuexiu Property [3]

2025 年 3 月 17 日 强烈推荐/维持 越秀交通基建 公司报告 事件：公司发布 24 年年报，全年实现收入 38.7 亿元，同比下降 2.5%，其中路 费收入 37.9 亿元，同比下降 1.4%。归母净利润 6.57 亿元，同比下降 14.2%， 公司业绩符合预期。 越秀交通基建（01052.HK）：平临高速将增厚 25 年业绩，收费权摊销略高于预期 极端天气和部分路段的路网分流导致报告期收入端有所下降：24 年公司路费收 入下降的原因主要系：1. 我国中东部地区受 24 年春节前后大范围雨雪低温冰冻 天气影响；2. 报告期节假日免费通行天数较 23 年多 3 天；3. 部分项目受路网分 流影响。 路网分流方面，具体到各个路产：1. 公司核心路产广州北二环高速收入同比下降 6.2%，主要系 23 年 10 月开始与北二环高速相连的从浦高速开通，导致部分车 流行驶路径缩短；2. 湖北汉蔡高速收入同比下降 8.3%，除了极端天气影响外， 23 年平行路段封闭施工导致基数较高也是 24 年收入下降的因素；3. 湖北汉鄂高 速和大广南高速收入分别同比增长 58.1%和下降 11.9%，主要系武黄高速封闭施 工 ...

食品饮料行业：市场预期逐渐改变， 关注短期估值修复行情 事件：近日，中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发《提振消费专项行动方案》， 并发出通知，部署 8 方面 30 项重点任务。 提振消费政策面持续催化。延续《政府工作报告》提出大力提振消费的政策部 署，16 日《提振消费专项行动方案》由中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发， 旨在全方位扩大国内需求，提升消费能力，优化消费环境。17 日介绍提振消 费有关情况的国务院新闻发布会将召开。预期接下来会有更为明确的政策陆续 出台。 《方案》针对性解决制约消费的突出矛盾问题。此次《方案》提出了七大行动， 包括：城乡居民增收促进行动、消费能力保障支持行动、服务消费提质惠民行 动、大宗消费更新升级行动、消费品质提升行动、消费环境改善提升行动、限 制措施清理优化行动。《方案》瞄准了消费能力、消费供给、消费环境、消费 领域的限制性政策等一系列影响消费的重要因素，提出了多项具体举措，进一 步推动消费潜力的释放。 经济逐渐磨底，政策提振有望改善市场预期。随着一系列刺激消费政策的出台， 以及近期经济数据显示经济进入磨底期，市场对消费需求复苏的预期有望得到 扭转。延续此前的研究观点，白酒价格与 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a projected PE of 19.8x/15.9x/12.9x for 2024-2026 [11]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading player in the automotive electronic shifting and throttle control systems, benefiting from the trends of electrification and intelligence in the automotive industry [4][42]. - The company has a strong cost control and efficiency, which will help maintain its competitive edge in the industry [4][42]. - The company is expected to achieve stable revenue growth driven by the increasing market share of domestic brands and expansion into joint ventures and overseas markets [4][42]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 1999, specializes in automotive shifting control systems, electronic throttle pedals, and cables, with a revenue distribution of 51% for shifting systems, 18% for electronic throttle pedals, and 18% for cables in 2023 [1][16]. - The company has a strong customer base, including major domestic manufacturers like Geely, BYD, and Great Wall [1][16]. Product Benefits from Industry Trends - The demand for electronic shifting systems and throttle pedals is increasing due to the trends of electrification and intelligence in vehicles, with the penetration rate of automotive electronics expected to approach 50% by 2030 [42][49]. - The company’s main products are well-positioned to benefit from the rising penetration of new energy vehicles [42][49]. Competitive Advantages - The company has a significant market share in the domestic brand sector, with nearly 50% of the supply share for electronic throttle pedals among domestic brands [2][56]. - The company has successfully expanded its customer base to include new energy vehicle manufacturers like Xiaomi and NIO, enhancing its growth potential in joint ventures and overseas markets [2][56]. Financial Performance - The company has demonstrated excellent cost control, with a management expense ratio approximately 10 percentage points lower than industry peers, and a stable inventory turnover rate [3][30]. - The company has maintained a strong cash flow, with an average annual net cash inflow of 150 million since its listing, and a cash dividend payout ratio consistently above 70% [3][30]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 1.49 billion, 1.73 billion, and 2.03 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 18.0%, 16.2%, and 16.9% [12][4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 200.81 million, 250.16 million, and 308.89 million for the same years, reflecting growth rates of 23.46%, 24.58%, and 23.48% [12][4].

新房与二手房成交延续回稳，二手房成交强于新房。 房管局数据： 29 城新房本周销售面积(03/08-03/14)为 288.5 万平，前值(03/01-03/07)为 289.5 万平。 29 城新房年内累计销售面积(1/1-03/14)同比增速为 9.71%，前值(1/1-03/07) 为 8.25%。当月累计销售面积同比增速为 22.86%，上个月整月为 44.57%。 13 城二手房本周销售面积(03/08-03/14)为 245.2 万平，前值(03/01-03/07)为 224.6 万平。 13 城二手房年内累计销售面积 (1/1-03/14)同比增速为 35.30%，前值 (1/1-03/07)为 34.00%。当月累计销售面积同比增速为 47.18%，上个月整月为 89.88%。 12 城 新 房 及 二 手 房 本 周 销 售 面 积 (03/08-03/14)为 368.2 万平，前值 (03/01-03/07)为 354.9 万平。 12 城新房及二手房合计年内累计销售面积(1/1-03/14)同比增速为 13.88%，前 值(1/1-03/07)为 11.66%。当月累计销售面积同比增速 ...

银行行业：政府债支撑社融提速 ——2 月社融金融数据点评 事件：3 月 14 日，中国人民银行发布 2025 年 2 月社融金融数据。 观点总结：1-2 月社融同比多增，存量社融增速升至 8.2%，主要贡献在于今年 政府债靠前发力。而实体贷款投放偏弱，一方面是 1 月储备项目大额投放有所 透支、2 月信贷需求较弱，另一方面，也有化债置换的影响。M1 增速环比放 缓，企业存款活化进程仍然偏慢，居民存款定期化延续。展望全年，在积极财 政政策和适度宽松的货币政策下，政府债有望维持高速扩张支撑社融增长；企 业、居民融资需求修复尚待观察，叠加隐债置换扰动，预计信贷增速低于社融。 点评： 1、社融：政府债支撑社融增速环比提升至 8.2%。1-2 月社融新增 9.29 万亿， 同比多增 1.32 万亿；政府债券为主要多增贡献，贷款增量同比基本持平。存 量社融同比+8.2%，环比提升 0.2pct。具体来看：（1）1-2 月社融口径人民币 贷款新增 5.87 万亿，同比多增 526 亿。2 月单月新增 0.65 万亿，同比少增 0.33 万亿；或与 2 月化债置换进程有所加快，1 月银行前置投放、储备项目有所透 支有关。（2 ...