Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Factor Performance Tracking Single Factor Performance - Factors with the best performance in the CSI 300 stock pool this week include the standard deviation of 5-day trading volume (2.12%), the proportion of downside volatility (1.78%), and the 5-day exponential moving average of trading volume (1.35%) [1][12] - Factors with the worst performance in the CSI 300 stock pool this week include the 5-day reversal (-3.60%), single-quarter total asset gross profit margin (-3.43%), and single-quarter ROA (-3.38%) [1][12] - Factors with the best performance in the CSI 500 stock pool this week include the inverse of the P/E ratio TTM (3.99%), the proportion of downside volatility (3.80%), and the P/E ratio factor (3.17%) [14] - Factors with the worst performance in the CSI 500 stock pool this week include the 5-day reversal (-1.95%), 5-day average turnover rate (-1.17%), and the 5-day exponential moving average of trading volume (-1.15%) [14] - Factors with the best performance in the liquidity 1500 stock pool this week include the correlation between intraday volatility and trading volume (2.27%), the proportion of downside volatility (1.80%), and the P/B ratio factor (1.51%) [16] - Factors with the worst performance in the liquidity 1500 stock pool this week include single-quarter EPS (-1.36%), standardized unexpected income (-1.29%), and the 5-day reversal (-1.25%) [16] Major Factor Performance - In the overall market stock pool this week, the momentum factor achieved a positive return of 0.43%, indicating a momentum effect in the market [18] - The Beta factor, market capitalization factor, and non-linear market capitalization factor achieved negative returns of -1.50%, -0.91%, and -0.54%, respectively, indicating a small-cap style in the market [18] Industry Factor Performance - This week, fundamental factors showed varied performance across industries. The net asset growth rate factor, net profit growth rate factor, net asset per share factor, and operating profit per share TTM factor consistently achieved positive returns in the non-bank financial industry [22] - Among valuation factors, the BP factor and EP factor consistently achieved positive returns in the home appliances, comprehensive, and non-bank financial industries [22] - The residual volatility factor and liquidity factor showed significant positive returns in the coal industry [22] - In terms of market capitalization style, the food and beverage, beauty care, and banking industries showed a significant large-cap style this week [22] Factor Backtesting Results CSI 300 Stock Pool - Standard deviation of 5-day trading volume: 2.12% (1 week), 3.52% (1 month), 8.21% (1 year), 19.07% (10 years) [13] - Proportion of downside volatility: 1.78% (1 week), 0.41% (1 month), -5.44% (1 year), 25.57% (10 years) [13] - 5-day exponential moving average of trading volume: 1.35% (1 week), 1.19% (1 month), 3.70% (1 year), 5.13% (10 years) [13] CSI 500 Stock Pool - Inverse of P/E ratio TTM: 3.99% (1 week), 4.80% (1 month), -5.74% (1 year), 48.40% (10 years) [15] - Proportion of downside volatility: 3.80% (1 week), 1.56% (1 month), -3.09% (1 year), 107.51% (10 years) [15] - P/E ratio factor: 3.17% (1 week), 2.58% (1 month), -4.94% (1 year), 26.11% (10 years) [15] Liquidity 1500 Stock Pool - Correlation between intraday volatility and trading volume: 2.27% (1 week), 3.18% (1 month), 2.59% (1 year), 152.82% (10 years) [17] - Proportion of downside volatility: 1.80% (1 week), 2.97% (1 month), 5.48% (1 year), 114.63% (10 years) [17] - P/B ratio factor: 1.51% (1 week), 3.69% (1 month), -5.28% (1 year), 74.59% (10 years) [17] Portfolio Tracking PB-ROE-50 Portfolio Performance - This week, the PB-ROE-50 portfolio achieved positive excess returns in the CSI 500 stock pool: 0.15% [24] - In the CSI 800 stock pool, the PB-ROE-50 portfolio achieved excess returns of -1.50% [24] - In the overall market stock pool, the PB-ROE-50 portfolio achieved excess returns of -2.52% [24] Institutional Research Portfolio Tracking - This week, the public fund research stock selection strategy and private fund research tracking strategy achieved negative excess returns relative to the CSI 800: -0.94% and -4.83%, respectively [26] Block Trade Portfolio Tracking - This week, the block trade portfolio achieved positive excess returns relative to the CSI All Share Index: 1.56% [30] Private Placement Portfolio Tracking - This week, the private placement portfolio achieved positive excess returns relative to the CSI All Share Index: 1.86% [36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - In the week from October 13 to October 17, 2025, both the convertible bond and equity markets experienced significant adjustments. The convertible bond market underperformed the equity market. In the long - term, convertible bonds remain relatively high - quality assets due to the pattern where demand exceeds supply, but the current valuation level is generally high, so structural optimization is needed [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情 - From October 13 to October 17, 2025 (5 trading days), the CSI Convertible Bond Index fell by 2.3% (0% last week), and the CSI All - Share Index dropped by 3.5% (-0.3% last week). Since the beginning of 2025, the CSI Convertible Bond Index has risen by 14.4%, and the CSI All - Share Index has increased by 19.0%. The convertible bond market underperformed the equity market [1]. - By rating, high - rated bonds (AA + and above), medium - rated bonds (AA), and low - rated bonds (AA - and below) fell by 1.73%, 3.41%, and 3.51% respectively this week, with high - rated bonds having the smallest decline [1]. - By convertible bond size, large - scale convertible bonds (bond balance > 5 billion yuan), medium - scale convertible bonds (balance between 500 million and 5 billion yuan), and small - scale convertible bonds (balance < 500 million yuan) fell by 1.01%, 2.80%, and 3.98% respectively this week, with large - scale convertible bonds having the smallest decline [1]. - By conversion parity, ultra - high - parity bonds (conversion value > 130 yuan), high - parity bonds (conversion value between 110 and 130 yuan), medium - parity bonds (conversion value between 90 and 110 yuan), low - parity bonds (conversion value between 70 and 90 yuan), and ultra - low - parity bonds (conversion value < 70 yuan) fell by 7.32%, 3.15%, 2.44%, 1.96%, and 1.33% respectively this week, with ultra - high - parity bonds having the largest decline [2]. Convertible Bond Price, Parity, and Conversion Premium Rate - As of October 17, 2025, there were 413 outstanding convertible bonds (420 at the end of last week), with a balance of 566.693 billion yuan (587.832 billion yuan at the end of last week). The average convertible bond price was 130.61 yuan (132.67 yuan at the end of last week), with a percentile of 98.0%. The average convertible bond parity was 103.82 yuan (105.35 yuan at the end of last week), with a percentile of 93.4%. The average conversion premium rate was 27.7% (27.6% at the end of last week), with a percentile of 56.5%. The conversion premium rate of medium - parity convertible bonds (conversion value between 90 and 110 yuan) was 28.8%, higher than the median (20.4%) of medium - parity convertible bonds since 2018 [3]. Convertible Bond Performance and Allocation Direction - In the long - term, convertible bonds are still relatively high - quality assets due to the pattern where demand exceeds supply. However, the current valuation level is generally high, so structural optimization is needed [4]. Convertible Bond Increase Situation - The top 15 convertible bonds in terms of increase this week include Huicheng Convertible Bond, Tongguang Convertible Bond, Liugong Convertible Bond 2, etc. For example, Huicheng Convertible Bond had a convertible bond increase of 20.93% and a underlying stock increase of 20.08% [24].

Group 1: Macro Analysis - The financial data for September shows stable performance, with expectations for credit demand to recover as policy financial tools are implemented and fiscal spending accelerates [2] - The significant year-on-year increase in household deposits indicates a slowdown in the "migration" of deposits, potentially linked to the decline in the stock market's "profit effect" [2] - The growth rates of M1 and M2 are showing a contrasting trend, reflecting the current liquidity conditions [2] Group 2: Company Research - Semiconductor Equipment - Shengmei Shanghai (688082.SH) has completed a private placement and continues to see high growth in orders for the first three quarters of 2025, with net profit forecasts of 1.476 billion, 1.829 billion, and 2.285 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 59x, 47x, and 38x [3] - Huafeng Measurement and Control (688200.SH) reported steady revenue growth in H1 2025, with significant increases in overseas sales, and net profit forecasts of 459 million, 605 million, and 763 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with PE ratios of 56x, 43x, and 34x [4] Group 3: Company Research - Beverage Industry - Mixue Group (2097.HK) is projected to achieve net profits of 5.690 billion, 6.694 billion, and 7.699 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 14.99, 17.63, and 20.28 yuan, leading to PE ratios of 27x, 23x, and 20x [5] - The company benefits from industrial capabilities and a cost structure that is improving due to economies of scale, reinforcing its competitive advantage in the sub-10 yuan price segment [5] - The establishment of a robust supply chain and the operational streamlining of its sub-brand Lucky Coffee are expected to continue attracting consumers through a "low price + explosive products" strategy [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company achieved robust revenue growth in the first half of 2025, with operating income reaching 534 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.99%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 196 million yuan, up 74.04% [2] - The global semiconductor industry stabilized and rebounded in the first half of 2025, providing a favorable environment for the company's performance, driven by its technological advantages in analog and mixed-signal testing [2][3] - The company is actively expanding its overseas market presence, with overseas revenue growing significantly by 141.71% to 58 million yuan in the first half of 2025, establishing a solid foundation for global development [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported operating income of 534 million yuan and net profit of 196 million yuan, reflecting strong growth rates of 40.99% and 74.04% respectively [2] - The company forecasts net profits of 459 million yuan for 2025, 605 million yuan for 2026, and 763 million yuan for 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 56x, 43x, and 34x [3][4] Market Strategy - The company adopts a dual-driven strategy focusing on both domestic and international markets, enhancing its brand's international influence and supply chain resilience [2][3] - The company has made significant progress in emerging markets such as Vietnam and India while deepening cooperation with traditional markets in Europe, Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia [3] Valuation Metrics - The report provides a summary of key financial metrics, including projected revenue growth rates of 30.47% for 2025 and 30.00% for 2026, alongside a projected EPS of 3.39 yuan for 2025 [4][10] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to increase from 12.03% in 2025 to 15.68% in 2027, indicating improving profitability [10]

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In September 2025, new social financing (社融) increased by CNY 3.53 trillion, a decrease of CNY 229.7 billion year-on-year, which was below market expectations[3] - The year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.7%, down from 8.8% in the previous month[1] - New RMB loans amounted to CNY 1.29 trillion, a decrease of CNY 300 billion year-on-year[4] Group 2: Loan and Deposit Trends - The increase in RMB loans in September was CNY 1.29 trillion, with a year-on-year decrease of CNY 3 billion, indicating weak credit growth[4] - Resident deposits increased by CNY 2.21 trillion, a decrease of CNY 1.53 trillion year-on-year, reflecting a slowdown in the "moving house" trend of deposits[5] - M1 growth rate was 7.2%, up 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, while M2 growth rate was 8.4%, down 0.4 percentage points[5] Group 3: Market Implications and Future Outlook - The high base effect from last year's government bond issuance continues to pressure social financing growth, with a risk of sustained pressure if no new fiscal policies are introduced[9] - The demand for credit is expected to recover with the implementation of policy financial tools and accelerated fiscal spending[14] - The significant increase in resident deposits in September may be linked to a slowdown in the "money-making effect" from the stock market's high volatility[14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company has seen a significant increase in its order backlog, reaching 9.072 billion yuan as of September 29, 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 34.10% [1]. - The semiconductor equipment demand in China remains strong, and the company is leveraging its technological advantages and market recognition to expand its market presence [1]. - The company successfully raised 4.482 billion yuan through a private placement of shares, which will primarily be used for R&D projects and working capital [2]. Summary by Sections Company Orders and Financials - As of September 29, 2025, the company's order backlog is 9.072 billion yuan, a 34.10% increase year-on-year [1]. - The company reported a net profit forecast of 1.476 billion yuan for 2025, with projections of 1.829 billion yuan for 2026 and 2.285 billion yuan for 2027 [3]. Product Development and Market Position - The company emphasizes product R&D, with new products contributing to continuous order growth [2]. - The successful validation of the self-developed high-temperature SPM equipment in March 2025 is expected to add significant value to next-generation semiconductor device manufacturing [2]. Financial Projections and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at 6.984 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 24.33% [4]. - The company is projected to maintain a P/E ratio of 59x for 2025, decreasing to 38x by 2027 [3][4].

Macro Analysis - The core CPI has risen to +1.0% year-on-year due to increases in gold prices and durable goods, but overall CPI remains negative due to the drag from pork prices [2] - CPI is expected to turn positive in Q4 as the high base effect from the previous year dissipates [2] - PPI's year-on-year decline continues to narrow, influenced by the high base effect and the promotion of "anti-involution" [2] Credit Market Insights - In September 2025, new RMB loans increased by 700 billion, marking the second consecutive month of growth [3] - The credit growth indicates a potential upward trend for Q4, suggesting that the market is preparing for increased lending activity [3] Bond Market Overview - The overall CPI showed slight improvement in September, with core CPI rising for five consecutive months [4] - PPI remained flat month-on-month, with a decline in manufacturing prices [4] - The bond market outlook is optimistic due to a relatively loose funding environment, with a target yield for 10Y government bonds set at 1.7% [4] Banking Sector Analysis - In September, the intensity of loan issuance showed a seasonal rebound, with new social financing at 3.53 trillion, down 0.1 percentage points year-on-year to 8.7% [6] - The M1 money supply continues to rebound, while M2 shows a slight decline due to a high base effect, indicating an increase in monetary activity [6] Company Research: Xinhan New Materials - Xinhan New Materials focuses on the R&D, production, and sales of aromatic ketone products, with projected net profits of 79 million, 85 million, and 100 million RMB for 2025-2027 [7] - The company is expected to experience high growth due to new capacity coming online, leading to an "overweight" rating [7] Company Research: Xiaocaiyuan - Xiaocaiyuan is a leading brand in the affordable dining sector, aligning with consumer trends for quality and price [8] - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 750 million, 922 million, and 1.132 billion RMB, with corresponding EPS of 0.64, 0.78, and 0.96 RMB [8] - The company is rated "overweight" due to its supply chain advantages and potential for margin improvement [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The CPI showed a slight improvement in September 2025, with limited improvement in both year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates. The core CPI's year - on - year increase has been expanding for five consecutive months. The PPI's month - on - month growth rate remained flat for two consecutive months, and the processing industry's prices decreased month - on - month. The PPI's year - on - year growth rate may be at the bottom and on the rise, but there is obvious structural differentiation [2][7]. - Regarding interest - rate bonds, since August 2025, the yield curve of treasury bonds has steepened, with short - term yields being stable and long - term yields rising significantly. The current bond market should be viewed more optimistically, and the duration selection can be from short to long, maintaining the view that the fluctuation center of the 10Y treasury bond yield is 1.7%. For convertible bonds, although they are relatively high - quality assets in the long run, they are currently in a high - level valuation compression stage and require more attention to structure [3][19][28]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Event - On October 15, 2025, the National Bureau of Statistics released the CPI and PPI data for September 2025. The CPI decreased by 0.3% year - on - year (previous value: - 0.4%), the core CPI increased by 1.0% year - on - year (previous value: 0.9%), and the PPI decreased by 2.3% year - on - year (previous value: - 2.9%) [1][6]. 3.2 Comment 3.2.1 CPI - In September 2025, the CPI's year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates improved to some extent compared with the previous month, but the improvement was limited. The month - on - month growth rate was within the seasonal fluctuation range [7]. - Structurally, food prices improved month - on - month (with a month - on - month growth rate of 0.7%, up from 0.5% last month), energy and service prices decreased month - on - month (energy prices decreased by 0.8% month - on - month, and service prices decreased by 0.3% month - on - month), and the core CPI's year - on - year increase continued to expand [8]. 3.2.2 PPI - In September 2025, the PPI's year - on - year decline narrowed, and the month - on - month growth rate remained flat for two consecutive months. Among the production materials, the year - on - year decline of the mining, raw materials, and processing industries all narrowed, but the processing industry's prices decreased month - on - month [13][14]. - Looking forward, with the continuous implementation of the "anti - involution" policy, the PPI's year - on - year growth rate may be at the bottom and on the rise, but there is obvious structural differentiation, and the price increase of upstream mining has not been effectively transmitted to the mid - and downstream industrial products [17]. 3.3 Bond Market Viewpoint 3.3.1 Interest - rate Bonds - Since August 2025, the yield of treasury bonds has shown obvious differentiation, with short - term yields being stable and long - term yields rising significantly. Since the end of September, the yield spread between 10Y and 1Y treasury bonds has narrowed, while the spread between 30Y and 10Y treasury bonds has widened. Currently, the capital market is relatively loose, and the bond market should be viewed more optimistically, with the duration selection from short to long, and the fluctuation center of the 10Y treasury bond yield is maintained at 1.7% [19][22]. 3.3.2 Convertible Bonds - As of October 14, 2025, the CSI Convertible Bond Index had a return of + 15.7% since the beginning of the year. Currently, the valuation quantiles of convertible bonds are close to or exceed historical highs, so an oscillatory pattern is inevitable. In the long run, convertible bonds are relatively high - quality assets, but at present, more attention should be paid to the structure [28].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The new RMB loan data in September 2025 reflects both the "form" and "trend" of current credit growth. The credit growth in September was "holding back", and the credit growth in the fourth quarter is "accumulating strength". The overall situation of credit and the economy is improving [1][2][3]. - The improvement in the "trend" is not only reflected in credit data but also in other monetary - financial and economic operation data, indicating that the economic situation is gradually getting better [3]. 3) Summary of Related Sections Credit's "Form" and "Trend" - **Form**: In September 2025, it was the second consecutive month of month - on - month increase in credit, and the increase widened from 64 billion yuan in the previous month to 70 billion yuan. The year - on - year decrease also narrowed compared to the previous month [1]. - **Trend**: - **September's credit "holding back"**: The rise in the 3M national - share transfer discount rate at the end of September shows that if financial institutions had not restricted credit, the credit data would have been higher [2]. - **Fourth - quarter credit "accumulating strength"**: The 50 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments started to be put into use at the end of September, which will boost credit demand. The impact of implicit debt replacement on credit growth in the fourth quarter of this year is weaker than that in the same period last year, so the year - on - year credit growth in the fourth quarter is likely to improve compared to the third quarter [3]. Other Data Indicating the Positive "Trend" - **Monetary - financial data**: In late September, M1 increased by 7.2% year - on - year, with the growth rate rising for five consecutive months [3]. - **Economic operation data**: In September, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, rising for the second consecutive month; the PPI year - on - year growth rate was - 2.3%, also rising for the second consecutive month and increasing by 1.3 percentage points from the annual low in July [3]. Stock Market and Economic Outlook Since May, the Shanghai Composite Index has been rising, reaching 3912.21 points at the close on the day of the report. The economic situation is improving, and investors' expectations and confidence have changed significantly [4].

CPI Analysis - In September 2025, the CPI year-on-year decreased by 0.3%, a slight improvement from the previous month's -0.4% and better than the market expectation of -0.1%[2] - The core CPI rose to 1.0% year-on-year, up from 0.9% in the previous month, driven by increases in prices of gold and durable goods[3] - Food prices continued to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.4%, primarily due to falling pork prices, which dropped by 0.7% month-on-month[4] PPI Analysis - The PPI year-on-year decline narrowed to 2.3% in September from 2.9% in August, slightly better than the market expectation of -2.4%[2] - The PPI remained stable month-on-month at 0% for two consecutive months, indicating a stabilization after previous declines[6] - Key sectors such as coal, steel, and photovoltaic industries showed price stabilization, contributing to the reduced PPI decline[6] Future Outlook - CPI is expected to turn positive in the fourth quarter as the impact of last year's high base fades and food price pressures diminish[8] - The PPI is anticipated to continue its upward trend, but the improvement may be limited due to weakening demand and ongoing international oil price declines[8] - The seasonal demand for pork may support prices, potentially leading to a price turning point by mid-next year if breeding stock continues to decrease[8]