2025 年 12 月 19 日 晨会速递 | | 商品市场 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘 | 涨跌% | | SHFESHFE 黄金 | 980.50 | 0.08 | | SHFESHFE 燃油 | 2439 | 0.99 | | SHFESHFE 铜 | 92600 | -0.24 | | SHFESHFE 锌 | 23030 | 0.26 | | SHFESHFE 铝 | 21955 | 0.18 | | SHFESHFE 镍 | 113940 | 0.12 | 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【宏观】2026 年特朗普将如何启动住房改革？——解构美国系列第十五篇 12 月 18 日，特朗普宣布将推进激进的住房改革计划。展望看，住房改革或沿着降低 房贷成本、激活供给市场、降息三条路径，目前已提出延长住房抵押贷款年限、可转 移的抵押贷款，以及宣布国家紧急状态释放联邦土地用于住房建设等思路。但考虑到 国会、司法的限制，以及大幅降息或使 30 年期国债利率的期限溢价进一步走高，上 述政策对房地产市场的传导作用或依然有限。 公司研究 【食饮】激励加码增强势能，注重经营利润表现— ...

分析师：周欣平 执业证书编号：S0930525070005 010-57378026 zhouxinping@ebscn.com 相关研报 2025 年 12 月 18 日 总量研究 2026 年特朗普将如何启动住房改革？ ——解构美国系列第十五篇 作者 分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 特朗普释放和解信号，中国掌握谈判主导权 ——《大国博弈》系列第八十三篇（2025- 04-27） 美元指数突破 100 后，强势美元将维持多 久？——解构美国系列第十四篇（2025-11- 06） 减税法案顺利落地，可以对冲关税压力吗？ ——解构美国系列第十三篇（2025-07-04） 近期美债收益率为何再次上行？——解构美 国系列第十二篇（2025-05-16） 关税互搏，中美经济韧性谁更强？——《大 国博弈》系列第八十二篇（2025-04-10） 特朗普升级全球关税战，对华后续军棋推演 ——《大国博弈》系列第八十一篇（2025- 04-03） 减税法案或是美国经济预期转折点——解构 美国系列第十一篇（2025-03-26） 美国政 ...

2025 年 12 月 18 日 公司研究 激励加码增强势能，注重经营利润表现 ——盐津铺子（002847.SZ）限制性股票激励计划（草案）点评 要点 事件：盐津铺子发布 2025 年限制性股票激励计划（草案），此次股票激励计划 涉及 300 万股，占当前公司股本总额的 1.10%，本次激励计划为一次性授予， 不设预留权益。授予对象共计 157 人，包含公司副总经理兰波/杨林广/黄敏胜（分 别为 8/8/5 万股）、董事会秘书张杨（3 万股）、职工董事汤云峰（1 万股）及 核心技术（业务）人员（152 人，合计 275 万股）。授予价格为 35.18 元/股， 是 12 月 16 日股票交易均价 70.36 元的 50%。此次激励计划进一步增加激励人 员范围，提升骨干人员整体积极性。 着重利润端考核，设立分梯度目标。本次股票激励计划考核年度涉及 2026-2028 年。考核要求分为公司层面及个人层面：1）公司层面要求为：考核目标分为目 标值和触发值，触发值为目标值的 90%。实际达成净利润不低于目标值，对应 行权比例为 100%，达成净利润处于[触发值，目标值）区间，行权比例为 80%， 低于触发值则不行权。 ...

2025 年 12 月 18 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【宏观】税收增速回落，基金性收支均回升——2025 年 11 月财政数据点评 11 月份财政数据需关注以下三点：其一，税收增速从高位回落，非税表现边际好转， 而支出端则明显加力，基建与就业相关预算支出改善幅度较大；其二，地方债务结存 限额下达并用于补充地方政府综合财力后，政府性基金收支均改善；其三，年内新增 专项债供给基本收官，有利于稳定基建投资。风险提示：政策落地不及预期，重大项 目开工不及预期。 【宏观】政府停摆扰动就业，不足以支撑 1 月降息——2025 年 11 月美国非农数据点 评 11 月美国失业率超预期上行至 4.6%，或是政府停摆带来的"技术性"扰动，停摆期 间大量联邦雇员强制休假，被计入失业人口，暂时推高失业率，随政府重新开门，失 业率有望回落。从结构看，政府部门就业走弱，私营部门仍有韧性，其中 11 月商品 生产部门新增就业 1.9 万人，为 2025 年 5 月以来的最高值。从降息角度看，尽管失 业率超预期抬升，但美联储短期内或维持谨慎降息的节奏不变。 公司研究 【互联网传媒】出海社交龙头，聚焦"灌木丛"产品矩阵 ...

2025 年 12 月 17 日 总量研究 税收增速回落，基金性收支均回升 ——2025 年 11 月财政数据点评 作者 分析师：王佳雯 执业证书编号：S0930524010001 021-52523870 wangjiawen@ebscn.com 分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 要点 事件：2025 年 1-11 月，全国一般公共预算收入累计同比增速为+0.8%，前值 为+0.8%；一般公共预算支出累计同比增速为+1.4%，前值为+2.0%。政府性基 金预算收入累计同比增速为-4.9%，前值为-2.8%；政府性基金预算支出累计同 比增速为+13.7%，前值为+15.4%。 核心观点： 11 月份财政数据需关注以下三点：其一，税收增速从高位回落，非税表现边际 好转，而支出端则明显加力，基建与就业相关预算支出改善幅度较大；其二， 地方债务结存限额下达并用于补充地方政府综合财力后，政府性基金收支均改 善；其三，年内新增专项债供给基本收官，有利于稳定基建投资。 一、一般公共预算：税收与非税"跷跷板" 财政收入维持增长。11 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 14.5, compared to the current price of HKD 10.54 [4][6]. Core Insights - The company, Chi Zi Cheng Technology, is a leading global social entertainment platform from China, focusing on diverse social experiences for users from various cultural backgrounds, primarily in the Middle East and North Africa [1][15]. - The company has achieved significant revenue growth, with a 40% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, reaching RMB 3.181 billion, and a net profit of RMB 489 million, corresponding to a net profit margin of 15.4% [1][25]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Chi Zi Cheng Technology has transitioned from a tool-based application to a diversified social product matrix, focusing on global social entertainment [15][16]. - The company has established a strong localized operational team with around 800 members across more than 20 countries, implementing a "China-led, local-driven" collaborative model [2][19]. Social Business Strategy - The company's core social business, which is expected to account for over 70% of total revenue by 2024, employs a "bush" product matrix strategy, including products like MICO, YoHo, TopTop, and SUGO [2][35]. - The company has successfully integrated acquisitions, such as Blue City Brothers, to enhance its presence in the diverse social market, with Blue City's MAU reaching approximately 7.45 million [2][3]. Innovative Business Growth - The company is developing a second growth curve through innovative businesses, including premium mobile games and social e-commerce, with the flagship game "Alice's Dream: MergeGames" showing over 60% revenue growth in 2024 [3][4]. - The social e-commerce segment is expanding, with acquisitions enhancing user demographics and engagement [3][4]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 69.0 billion, 84.1 billion, and 97.0 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits of RMB 9.5 billion, 12.4 billion, and 14.9 billion, reflecting growth rates of 97.0%, 31.3%, and 19.7% [4][5]. - The report highlights the company's strong localization strategy and successful "product + country" replication strategy, positioning it well in emerging social entertainment markets [4][5].

事件： 政府停摆扰动就业，不足以支撑 1 月降息 ——2025 年 11 月美国非农数据点评 要点 2025 年 12 月 17 日 总量研究 2025 年 12 月 16 日，美国劳工部公布 2025 年 11 月非农数据：新增非农就业 6.4 万人，预期 5.0 万人，10 月为-10.5 万人；失业率 4.6%，预期 4.4%；平均 时薪同比升 3.5%，预期升 3.6%。 核心观点： 新增非农就业高于预期，商品生产、专业和商业服务业、教育和保健业表现较好。 （一）专业和商业服务业、教育和保健业：专业和商业服务业中，11 月临时工 服务新增就业从 10 月的-1.3 万人升至-0.5 万人，反映兼职市场需求较高。此外， 随着冬季来临，医疗服务需求也保持稳健。（二）建筑业：随着美联储在 9 月重 启降息，美国房贷利率已呈现下行趋势，拉动相关地产需求，11 月建筑业新增 就业 2.8 万人，是生产部门主要贡献项。 劳动参与率与失业率同步抬升。 2025 年 11 月劳动参与率录得 62.5%，高于 9 月的 62.4%，青年群体就业意愿 回升。从失业人口看，11 月失业人口增加了 22.8 万人，驱动 11 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives the company an "Accumulate" rating for the first time [6][14]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading domestic player in cardiac electrophysiology, providing a comprehensive three-dimensional cardiac electrophysiology solution, with strong technical barriers and a complete product matrix [4][14]. - The domestic electrophysiology market is experiencing rapid growth, driven by favorable policies and increasing demand for innovative technologies, with the company positioned to capture significant market share [2][3]. Company Overview - The company, established in 2010, focuses on innovative medical devices for electrophysiology intervention and ablation therapy, becoming the first domestic manufacturer to offer a complete solution in this field [21]. - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with no single shareholder holding more than 10%, ensuring balanced governance [24][27]. Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve revenue of 413 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 25.51%, and a net profit of 52 million yuan, with a staggering growth of 815.36% [5][14]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.13, 0.18, and 0.26 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 187, 131, and 88 [4][5]. Market Dynamics - The domestic electrophysiology market is expected to grow significantly, with the market share of foreign brands decreasing from 93% in 2020 to 72% in 2024, indicating a strong trend towards domestic substitution [2][3]. - The company has successfully participated in multiple provincial procurement programs, demonstrating its clinical recognition and market competitiveness [2][3]. Product Development - The company has a comprehensive product line covering two-dimensional and three-dimensional systems, with several products filling domestic gaps and matching foreign competitors in performance [3][4]. - The company is actively developing new products in emerging fields such as pulse ablation and renal artery treatment, enhancing its growth potential [3][12]. Profitability Forecast - The company’s revenue from catheter products is expected to grow at rates of 16.00%, 28.00%, and 27.00% from 2025 to 2027, driven by increased market penetration and procurement benefits [10]. - The gross margin is anticipated to stabilize above 60% starting in 2025, following the launch of high-margin new products [11].

Macro Insights - The internal economic momentum is weakening, and the policy window is gradually approaching, with a focus on stabilizing consumption and investment through counter-cyclical policies [2] - The "pig cycle" investment paradigm is shifting, with supply reduction in the pig industry driven by profit losses and policy adjustments, but the elasticity of pig prices is expected to be weaker than in previous cycles [3] - The healthcare negotiations in the U.S. are becoming a political tool, with significant implications for the capital markets, as budget agreements remain unresolved [4] Bond Market Analysis - Major economic indicators have further declined, with industrial production growth slowing year-on-year, while fixed asset investment shows an expanding decline [6] - The bond market is currently experiencing a relatively loose funding environment, and investors are advised to adopt a gradually optimistic outlook, with a forecast for the 10-year government bond yield to stabilize around 1.75% [6][5] Real Estate Sector - In the real estate market, new home transactions in 20 cities totaled 735,000 units, down 14.8%, with significant declines in cities like Beijing and Shenzhen [7] - The second-hand housing market showed a slight increase in transactions, with a total of 725,000 units sold, indicating a mixed performance across major cities [7] Company Research - Zhaoli Pharmaceutical is set to acquire a range of trace element injection assets, which will enhance its product structure and leverage synergies, with a favorable market outlook for these products [9] - The acquisition is expected to significantly boost the company's revenue and profit, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at 655 million, 836 million, and 1.063 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 18, 14, and 11 times [9]

2025 年 12 月 15 日 总量研究 经济内生动能回落，政策窗口期逐步临近 ——2025 年 11 月经济数据点评 作者 分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 相关研报 消费边际好转，投资维持低迷——2025 年 10 月经济数据点评（2025-11-14） 如何解读三季度经济数据？——2025 年三 季度经济数据点评（2025-10-20） 经济不确定性加大，逆周期政策有望加码— —2025 年 8 月经济数据点评（2025-09-16） 如何看待7月经济增速的回落？——2025年 7 月经济数据点评（2025-08-15） 如何理解当前经济形势？——2025年6月经 济数据点评（2025-07-15） 经济供需关系有所改善——2025年5月经济 数据点评（2025-06-16） 经济顶住压力，实现稳定增长——2025 年 4 月经济数据点评（2025-05-19） 如何看待超预期的一季度经济？——2025 年 3 月经济数据点评（2025-04-16） 政策持续显效，经济顺利开局——2025 年 1-2 月经济数 ...