Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders of 40.54% for the first three quarters of 2025, reaching 1.81 billion yuan, with a revenue increase of 8.75% to 7.97 billion yuan [1]. - The company is actively expanding its production capacity in the southwestern and Fujian regions, focusing on high-end products to meet the growing demand in sectors such as semiconductors and biomedicine [2]. - The company has a diverse customer base across traditional and emerging industries, enhancing its brand effect and market presence [3]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted upwards, with expected net profits of 2.52 billion yuan (up 23.4%), 3.00 billion yuan (up 29.7%), and 3.74 billion yuan respectively [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.57%, and a net profit of 0.63 billion yuan, reflecting a 16.88% increase year-on-year [1]. - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was reported at 36.23%, an increase of 5.1 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The company has effectively controlled costs, with a decrease in various expense ratios compared to the previous year [1]. Capacity Expansion and Market Strategy - The company is enhancing its production capabilities with the largest liquid air separation gas production line in the southwestern region and is expanding its production bases in locations such as Meishan and Jintang [2]. - The focus on high-purity electronic gases, medical gases, and rare gases positions the company to cater to the increasing demands of high-end markets [2]. Customer Base and Industry Position - The company's clients span various sectors, including metallurgy, chemicals, military, healthcare, and emerging industries like photovoltaics and new materials, which strengthens its market position [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [6]. Core Insights - The company has shown continuous improvement in performance, with a significant reduction in losses year-on-year, primarily due to declining costs and an increase in gross profit margin [2][3]. - The company is focusing on expanding its capacity in the epoxy industry chain and advancing into the new energy and medical materials markets, which is expected to boost future performance [3]. - The anticipated recovery in downstream demand, driven by infrastructure projects and supportive national policies, is expected to positively impact the company's performance [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.158 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 0.07 billion yuan, an improvement of 1.27 billion yuan year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.116 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.9% year-on-year but an increase of 1.6% quarter-on-quarter [1]. Gross Margin and Cost Management - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 5.36%, an increase of 3.73 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting effective cost management [2]. Capacity Expansion and Market Position - The company is the largest supplier of epoxy ethane-derived green low-carbon fine chemical materials in China, with significant production capacities in place and ongoing projects aimed at expanding its market reach [3]. - As of the first half of 2025, the company has ongoing projects to increase its production capacity, which is expected to enhance its performance once operational [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downward due to lower-than-expected recovery in downstream demand, with projected net profits of 0.05 billion yuan (down 86%), 0.40 billion yuan (down 15%), and 0.50 billion yuan (down 13%) respectively [3]. - Despite the adjustments, the company is still viewed positively for its strategic positioning in the epoxy ethane industry chain and potential growth in new materials [3].

2025 年 11 月 3 日 公司研究 特瑞普利单抗销售放量，研发持续推进 ——君实生物(688180.SH、1877.HK)2025 年三季报点评 要点 事件：公司发布 2025 年三季报，前三季度实现收入 18.06 亿元，同比增长 42.06%；归母净利润亏损 5.96 亿元，同比减亏 3.31 亿元；扣非归母净利润亏 损 6.70 亿元，同比减亏。其中 Q3 单季度收入 6.37 亿元，同比增长 31.40%； 归母净利润亏损 1.83 亿元；扣非归母净利润亏损 1.91 亿元。 点评： 特瑞普利单抗持续放量。公司核心产品特瑞普利单抗 25 年前三季度国内市场实 现销售收入约 14.95 亿元，同比增长约 40%。特瑞普利单抗的持续放量得益于 其不断扩大的适应症范围和全球商业化布局。2025 年三季度，特瑞普利单抗用 于一线治疗 HER2 表达尿路上皮癌的新适应症上市申请获得国家药监局受理。特 瑞普利单抗已在中国内地获批 12 项适应症，其中 10 项被纳入国家医保目录， 并在美国、欧盟等超过 40 个国家和地区获批上市。 研发投入持续强劲，管线推进有序。截至 2025 年三季度末，公司货币资金及交 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company’s A-shares and H-shares [4][6] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 18.83 billion CNY in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.9%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.72 billion CNY, up 10.9%, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items reached 2.61 billion CNY, marking a significant increase of 30.9% [1][4] - The company's gross margin improved to 32.4%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin slightly decreased to 15.3%, down 0.7 percentage points [1] - The rail transit equipment business showed stable growth, with revenue reaching 10.31 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%. The company maintained a stable market share in the bidding for train sets and locomotives, which is expected to support the annual performance [2] - The emerging equipment business experienced rapid development, with revenue of 8.43 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.3%. The company made significant progress in IGBT chip technology and is expanding its production capacity in power semiconductors [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 6.62 billion CNY, a 9.6% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.05 billion CNY, up 7.7% [1] - The company’s projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 4.30 billion CNY, 4.81 billion CNY, and 5.35 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.17 CNY, 3.54 CNY, and 3.94 CNY [4][5] Revenue Breakdown - The rail transit equipment segment generated 10.31 billion CNY in revenue, with specific contributions from various sub-segments: electrical equipment (8.08 billion CNY), engineering machinery (0.90 billion CNY), communication signals (0.76 billion CNY), and other equipment (0.57 billion CNY) [2] - The emerging equipment segment's revenue was 8.43 billion CNY, with notable growth in basic components (3.84 billion CNY), electric drive systems for new energy vehicles (1.87 billion CNY), and renewable energy generation (1.59 billion CNY) [3] Profitability and Valuation - The company’s projected P/E ratios for A-shares are 23, 19, 16, 15, and 13 for the years 2023 to 2027, respectively [5][11] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 8.42% in 2023 to 10.45% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [11]

- The report indicates that the market's Alpha environment has improved, with increased cross-sectional volatility in major broad-based indices[1][12] - The volume timing signals for major broad-based indices as of October 31, 2025, suggest a bullish outlook[2][24] - The cross-sectional volatility of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index components has increased over the past week, indicating a better short-term Alpha environment[34][42] - The time-series volatility of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index components has also increased over the past week, suggesting an improved Alpha environment[42][45] - The moving average sentiment indicator shows that the CSI 300 index is in a positive sentiment range in the short term[32][36] - The momentum sentiment indicator, which uses a double smoothing method with different window periods, shows that the fast line is below the slow line, indicating a cautious market attitude[28][29] - The CSI 300 index's rising stock count ratio sentiment indicator is around 62%, indicating a mixed market sentiment[26][27] - The report highlights the importance of the "dividend + technology" theme, with dividends potentially having an advantage in terms of volatility[12][13] - The report tracks the net inflows of southbound funds, which amounted to HKD 274.91 billion for the week[3][72] - The report also monitors the ETF market, noting a net inflow of RMB 189.58 billion for equity ETFs during the week[3][77]

Core Insights - The convertible bond market is expected to continue its upward trend in 2026, supported by low interest rates, strong demand, and a contraction in supply, despite the current high price levels of convertible bonds [6][27][28] - The report emphasizes the importance of selective investment in high-growth sectors, particularly in the artificial intelligence (AI) industry chain, which is anticipated to drive significant market demand [6][29][30] Market Review - From the beginning of 2025 to October 20, the A-share market and the convertible bond market both experienced increases, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index rising by 18.00% [11] - The volatility of the CSI Convertible Bond Index was lower than that of other indices, with an average daily volatility of 0.63% and an annualized volatility of 9.95% [12] - The report highlights a notable divergence in the performance of different types of convertible bonds, with those priced below 130 yuan showing varying degrees of increase [15][18] Convertible Bond Outlook - The report forecasts a more complex external environment in 2026, but the foundation for stable economic growth is being solidified, supported by proactive fiscal and monetary policies [25][26] - The supply-demand imbalance in the convertible bond market is expected to become more pronounced, necessitating greater selectivity in bond selection [27] - The report anticipates that the market will continue to experience structural differentiation and increased volatility, particularly as smaller-cap convertible bonds gain market share [27][28] Focus on AI Industry Chain - The AI industry chain is identified as a key area for investment, with significant growth drivers stemming from increased capital expenditure by major tech companies [29] - Specific sectors within the AI industry, such as AI servers, optical modules, and liquid cooling technologies, are highlighted as having strong growth potential due to rising demand and supportive policies [31][32] - The report suggests prioritizing investments in convertible bonds linked to companies with high relevance to the AI sector, emphasizing the importance of technical barriers and revenue contributions from AI-related businesses [30][31]

Policy Differences - High City emphasizes "responsible active fiscal policy" with increased support for strategic industries like semiconductors, AI, and defense, contrasting with Abe's focus on long-term growth through deregulation and corporate governance reform[2] - High City's monetary policy is more cautious due to high inflation, making it difficult to replicate Abe's strong intervention in the central bank[2] - Abe's policies aimed at breaking deflation through aggressive monetary easing, while High City seeks to align monetary policy with fiscal expansion[12] Current Macroeconomic Environment - Japan's debt sustainability remains manageable, with domestic investors holding 88.1% of government bonds, reducing default risk[17] - Consumer confidence is expected to improve as real wages rise and the stock market wealth effect enhances household balance sheets, with leverage ratios nearing pre-pandemic levels[3] - Manufacturing investment is entering a favorable phase, supported by inventory replenishment cycles and fiscal policy backing, with corporate profit margins at high levels[3] Currency and Stock Market Outlook - The Japanese yen is expected to experience oscillating upward movement due to the normalization of monetary policy and the Fed's ongoing rate cuts, which will support yen appreciation[4] - The Nikkei 225 index has risen by 31.4% year-to-date as of October 31, 2025, with about half of this increase driven by expectations of High City's policies[4] - Future market performance will depend on the effectiveness of policy implementation, with external demand potentially weakened by a stronger yen impacting export competitiveness[4] Risks - Uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies could lead to fluctuations in overseas demand, while global geopolitical conflicts may exceed expectations[5]

- The report tracks industry prosperity signals for sectors such as coal, livestock farming, steel, structural materials, and fuel refining based on recent industry operating indicators[9] - **Coal Industry Model**: The model estimates monthly revenue and profit growth rates for the coal industry based on changes in price factors and production capacity factors. The pricing mechanism is determined by the last price index of the previous month, which sets the sales price for the following month[10][14] - **Livestock Farming Factor**: The "outbound coefficient method" is used to calculate the supply-demand gap for pigs six months in advance. The formula is: $ \text{Outbound Coefficient} = \frac{\text{Single Quarter Pig Outbound}}{\text{Breeding Sow Inventory lag6m}} $ $ \text{6-month Potential Production Capacity} = \text{t-month Breeding Sow Inventory} \times (\text{t+6-month Last Year Outbound Coefficient}) $ $ \text{6-month Potential Pig Demand} = \text{t+6-month Last Year Single Quarter Pig Outbound} $ This method effectively identifies pig price upward cycles[15][16] - **Steel Industry Model**: Monthly profit growth and per-ton profit are predicted using a model that incorporates comprehensive steel prices and cost indicators such as iron ore, coke, pulverized coal, and scrap steel[18] - **Structural Materials and Construction Engineering Model**: Profit changes in the glass and cement manufacturing industries are tracked using price and cost indicators. Configuration signals are designed based on profitability changes. Manufacturing prosperity and real estate sales data are analyzed to assess the likelihood of infrastructure investment expectations[25] - **Fuel Refining and Oil Services Model**: Industry profit growth and cracking spreads are calculated using changes in fuel oil prices and crude oil prices. Configuration signals are designed based on oil prices, cracking spreads, and new drilling changes[27] Backtesting Results - **Coal Industry**: Profit growth is predicted to continue declining in November 2025 due to coal prices being lower than the previous year[14] - **Livestock Farming Factor**: The breeding sow inventory at the end of September 2025 was 40.35 million heads, slightly down month-on-month. The potential pig supply for Q1 2026 is estimated at 19.347 million heads, with demand forecasted at 19.476 million heads, indicating a slightly tight supply-demand balance[17] - **Steel Industry**: Profit growth for October 2025 is predicted to be negative. The rolling 12-month PMI average decreased month-on-month, maintaining a neutral configuration view for the steel industry[23] - **Structural Materials and Construction Engineering**: Flat glass profitability continued to grow year-on-year in October 2025, maintaining a positive signal for the glass industry. Cement industry profits turned negative year-on-year in October 2025, with no positive signals from new housing starts, maintaining a neutral view. Manufacturing PMI and real estate sales data suggest potential infrastructure investment expectations, leading to a positive signal for the construction decoration industry[26] - **Fuel Refining and Oil Services**: Fuel refining industry profits are predicted to grow slightly year-on-year in October 2025. Oil prices were lower than the previous year, maintaining a neutral view for the fuel refining and oil services industries[34][35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [6] Core Insights - Tungsten concentrate prices have reached a record high since 2012, indicating strong demand and potential investment opportunities in this segment [2][11] - The steel sector is expected to recover to historical profit levels due to government policies aimed at phasing out outdated production capacity [4][22] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquidity - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for October 2025 is at 52.41, up 10.15% month-on-month [12][18] - M1 and M2 growth rate differences show a positive correlation with the Shanghai Composite Index, with the difference at -1.2 percentage points in September 2025, improving by 1.6 percentage points [12][18] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The steel PMI index for October is at 47.6%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points month-on-month [22][43] - Key commodity prices have shown varied movements, with rebar prices up 0.63% and cement price index up 0.23% [1][22] Industrial Products Chain - The national PMI new orders index for October is at 48.80%, down 0.9 percentage points month-on-month [2] - Major commodity prices include cold-rolled steel unchanged, copper up 1.22%, and aluminum up 0.80% [2] Exports Chain - The new export orders PMI for October is at 45.90%, down 1.9 percentage points month-on-month [4] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates is at 1021.39 points, up 2.89% [4] Valuation Metrics - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.43%, with the shipping sector performing best at +3.95% [4] - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the broader market is currently at 0.53, with historical highs reaching 0.82 [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the steel sector's profitability is likely to recover to historical averages, and the PB ratio for steel stocks is expected to improve accordingly [4][22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Insights - The company achieved record high revenue in Q3 2025, with total revenue for the first three quarters reaching 3.387 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.16%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 220 million yuan, up 41.53% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company's gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 20.47%, a decrease of 0.81 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin improved to 6.58%, an increase of 0.69 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company is a leader in the domestic AI server power supply market, benefiting from the domestic production wave, with strong growth momentum and high profitability [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.267 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.00% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.81%. The net profit for Q3 was 88 million yuan, up 25.15% year-on-year and 4.54% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The company's operating expenses have been optimized, with sales expense ratio, management expense ratio, and R&D expense ratio at 2.28%, 3.41%, and 6.22%, respectively, showing year-on-year changes of -0.38 percentage points, -0.72 percentage points, and +0.51 percentage points [2]. Product and Market Position - The company’s core products include high-power server power supplies, which are positioned at the forefront of the domestic market and comparable to international high-end levels. The company has established strong relationships with major domestic server manufacturers [3]. - The company is actively expanding its overseas business, having set up teams in Taiwan and the United States to penetrate global markets [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for the company is set at 340 million yuan, 457 million yuan, and 578 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4]. - The report provides a detailed financial outlook, including projected revenue growth rates and profit margins, indicating a robust growth trajectory [11][13].