2026 年 2 月 8 日 总量研究 ——2026 年 2 月 8 日利率债观察 要点 7D OMO 降息的预期在升温 1、7D OMO 降息的预期在升温 近段时间，市场中对 7D OMO 降息的预期有所升温。这主要是不少投资者"判 断"2 月 4 日 3M 买断式逆回购的边际中标利率已降至 1.4%。鉴于当前 7D OMO 利率也为 1.4%，而 3M 和 7D 的央行资金利率之间通常会有一定的期限利差， 因此一些投资者认为本次 3M 买断式逆回购利率的下行将倒逼 7D OMO 降息。 实际上，买断式逆回购和 MLF 操作采用的是固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中 标的方式，边际中标利率由市场化形成，不具有政策利率的属性。人民银行加大 流动性投放力度，买断式逆回购和 MLF 的量给得足一些，那么自然其边际中标 利率就容易低一些。所以，买断式逆回购边际中标利率的下降与 7D OMO 降息 之间并无必然的联系，或至少说是没有直接的联系。 进一步讲，买断式逆回购和 MLF 操作数量的确定在主观上是为了调控 CD 等货 币市场利率，在客观上又会影响到工具本身的边际中标利率。因此，对于大多数 投资者而言，关注可以实时获 ...

Core Insights - The report introduces a "Five-Dimensional Industry Comparison Framework" that integrates multiple factors affecting stock price performance, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive analysis rather than relying on a single indicator [3][9] - Historical backtesting from 2016 to February 2025 shows that industries with higher scores in this framework tend to perform better, with annualized returns for the top scoring group at 11.8% compared to -10.5% for the lowest scoring group [21][23] - The report suggests a focus on growth sectors for February, particularly in high valuation industries such as electronics, power equipment, machinery, non-ferrous metals, communications, and computers [3][34] Five-Dimensional Industry Comparison Framework - The framework consists of five dimensions: market style, fundamentals, liquidity, trading, and valuation, with subjective judgments applied to market style, liquidity, and valuation [9][12] - The scoring process involves adjusting weights based on market conditions, with equal weighting during non-earnings seasons and increased emphasis on fundamentals during earnings seasons [8][30] February Market Outlook - The report anticipates a growth-oriented market style for February, with expectations of net inflows from public funds and a focus on high valuation sectors [3][34] - Key industries identified for investment include electronics, power equipment, machinery, non-ferrous metals, communications, and computers, which are expected to benefit from favorable market conditions [34][35] Industry Recommendations - **Electronics and Communications**: Companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and ShenNan Circuit are highlighted for their strong positions in AI-related markets and expected growth in demand for high-end products [36] - **Power Equipment**: Firms such as Shenghong Co. and Yangguang Electric are recommended due to their potential benefits from overseas storage and AI power sectors [40] - **High-End Manufacturing**: Companies like Anpeilong and Jingjin Equipment are noted for their advancements in robotics and AI applications, with significant growth potential [42] - **Non-Ferrous Metals**: Companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum are expected to benefit from rising copper prices and strategic stockpiling initiatives [46][47] - **Computers**: Firms such as Hikvision and Kingsoft are recognized for their strong AI capabilities and market positioning, with expectations for sustained growth [49][50]

Quantitative Models and Factors Summary Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model Name: Volume Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses volume signals to determine market timing[12] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model evaluates the volume timing signals for major indices as of February 6, 2026, and maintains a cautious view[24] - **Model Evaluation**: The model is currently signaling a cautious outlook for all major indices[24] Model Name: Momentum Sentiment Indicator - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses the number of stocks with positive returns within an index to gauge market sentiment[24] - **Model Construction Process**: - Calculate the proportion of stocks in the CSI 300 index with positive returns over the past N days - The formula is: $ \text{CSI 300 Index N-day Upward Stock Proportion} = \frac{\text{Number of stocks with positive returns in the past N days}}{\text{Total number of stocks in the index}} $[24] - **Model Evaluation**: The indicator can quickly capture upward opportunities but may miss out on gains during sustained market exuberance and has limitations in predicting downturns[25] Model Name: Moving Average Sentiment Indicator - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses the eight moving average system to determine the trend state of the CSI 300 index[32] - **Model Construction Process**: - Calculate the eight moving average values for the CSI 300 index closing prices with parameters 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233 - Assign values to the moving average indicator based on the moving average interval values - The formula is: $ \text{Indicator Value} = \begin{cases} -1 & \text{if interval value is 1/2/3} \\ 0 & \text{if interval value is 4/5/6} \\ 1 & \text{if interval value is 7/8/9} \end{cases} $[32] - **Model Evaluation**: The recent CSI 300 index is in a non-prosperous sentiment interval[32] Model Backtesting Results Volume Timing Model - **Signal**: Cautious for all major indices[24] Momentum Sentiment Indicator - **Current Value**: The indicator is above 60%, indicating high market sentiment[25] Moving Average Sentiment Indicator - **Current Value**: The CSI 300 index is in a non-prosperous sentiment interval[32] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor Name: Cross-sectional Volatility - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor measures the cross-sectional volatility of index constituent stocks to assess the Alpha environment[36] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the cross-sectional volatility for the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index constituent stocks - The formula is: $ \text{Cross-sectional Volatility} = \sqrt{\frac{1}{N-1} \sum_{i=1}^{N} (R_i - \bar{R})^2} $ where $ R_i $ is the return of stock i, and $ \bar{R} $ is the average return[37] - **Factor Evaluation**: The short-term Alpha environment has deteriorated, but the quarterly view shows a good Alpha environment for the CSI 300 and CSI 1000 indices[36] Factor Name: Time-series Volatility - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor measures the time-series volatility of index constituent stocks to assess the Alpha environment[37] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the time-series volatility for the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index constituent stocks - The formula is: $ \text{Time-series Volatility} = \sqrt{\frac{1}{T-1} \sum_{t=1}^{T} (R_t - \bar{R})^2} $ where $ R_t $ is the return at time t, and $ \bar{R} $ is the average return[40] - **Factor Evaluation**: The recent week shows an improvement in the Alpha environment for all indices[37] Factor Backtesting Results Cross-sectional Volatility - **CSI 300**: - Last quarter average: 2.17% - Last quarter percentile (2 years): 70.99% - Last quarter percentile (1 year): 74.07% - Last quarter percentile (6 months): 65.64%[37] - **CSI 500**: - Last quarter average: 2.48% - Last quarter percentile (2 years): 48.41% - Last quarter percentile (1 year): 53.97% - Last quarter percentile (6 months): 56.35%[37] - **CSI 1000**: - Last quarter average: 2.63% - Last quarter percentile (2 years): 66.53% - Last quarter percentile (1 year): 68.92% - Last quarter percentile (6 months): 66.14%[37] Time-series Volatility - **CSI 300**: - Last quarter average: 0.96% - Last quarter percentile (2 years): 58.02% - Last quarter percentile (1 year): 60.91% - Last quarter percentile (6 months): 47.94%[40] - **CSI 500**: - Last quarter average: 1.27% - Last quarter percentile (2 years): 50.00% - Last quarter percentile (1 year): 57.94% - Last quarter percentile (6 months): 60.32%[40] - **CSI 1000**: - Last quarter average: 1.22% - Last quarter percentile (2 years): 63.35% - Last quarter percentile (1 year): 71.31% - Last quarter percentile (6 months): 66.93%[40]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The overall issuance volume of credit bonds decreased month - on - month, and the credit spreads of various industries showed mixed trends [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market 3.1.1 Issuance Statistics - From February 2nd to February 6th, 2026, a total of 432 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 399.332 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 15.10% [11] - Industrial bonds: 184 were issued, with a scale of 166.015 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 30.88%, accounting for 41.57% of the total credit bond issuance [11] - Urban investment bonds: 210 were issued, with a scale of 141.497 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 19.61%, accounting for 35.43% of the total [11] - Financial bonds: 38 were issued, with a scale of 91.820 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 17.94%, accounting for 22.99% of the total [11] - The average issuance term of credit bonds was 2.82 years, with industrial bonds at 2.29 years, urban investment bonds at 3.49 years, and financial bonds at 2.19 years [13] - The average issuance coupon rate of credit bonds was 2.13%, with industrial bonds at 2.03%, urban investment bonds at 2.25%, and financial bonds at 1.91% [17] 3.1.2 Cancellation of Issuance Statistics - Four credit bonds cancelled their issuance this week [22] 3.2 Secondary Market 3.2.1 Credit Spread Tracking - In Shenwan's first - level industries, the largest upward movement in AAA - rated industry credit spreads was in the food and beverage industry (2.2BP), and the largest downward movement was in the light manufacturing industry (1.2BP). For AA + - rated industries, the largest upward movement was in non - ferrous metals (5.6BP), and the largest downward movement was in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (2.4BP). For AA - rated industries, the largest upward movement was in non - bank finance (1.8BP), and the largest downward movement was in the computer industry (6.3BP) [24] - In terms of urban investment bonds by region, for AAA - rated bonds, the largest upward movement was in Jilin (5.9BP), and the largest downward movement was in Inner Mongolia (2.1BP). For AA + - rated bonds, the largest upward movement was in Beijing (5.8BP), and the largest downward movement was in Fujian (2.7BP). For AA - rated bonds, the largest upward movement was in Guangxi (1.5BP), and the largest downward movement was in Yunnan (6.7BP) [26] - Coal credit spreads showed mixed trends, and steel credit spreads generally increased. For coal, AAA, AA +, and AA - rated credit spreads increased by 1.5BP, decreased by 0.9BP, and increased by 1.1BP respectively. For steel, AAA and AA + - rated credit spreads increased by 1.5BP and 5BP respectively [24] - Urban investment credit spreads of various levels showed mixed trends, and non - urban investment credit spreads generally increased. The three - level urban investment credit spreads increased by 0.1BP, decreased by 0.6BP, and decreased by 0.8BP respectively; the three - level non - urban investment credit spreads increased by 0.6BP, increased by 0.8BP, and remained flat respectively [24] - State - owned enterprise credit spreads showed mixed trends, and private enterprise credit spreads generally decreased. For central state - owned enterprises, the three - level credit spreads increased by 1.5BP, decreased by 0.7BP, and decreased by 0.9BP respectively; for local state - owned enterprises, the three - level credit spreads increased by 0.2BP, decreased by 0.2BP, and decreased by 1.4BP respectively; for AAA and AA + - rated private enterprises, credit spreads decreased by 0.4BP and 1BP respectively [25] 3.2.2 Trading Volume Statistics - The total trading volume of credit bonds was 147.0414 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 8.17%. The top three in terms of trading volume were commercial bank bonds, corporate bonds, and medium - term notes. Commercial bank bonds had a trading volume of 49.7061 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 8.95%, accounting for 33.80% of the total. Corporate bonds had a trading volume of 41.3421 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 9.23%, accounting for 28.12% of the total. Medium - term notes had a trading volume of 31.2069 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 7.75%, accounting for 21.22% of the total [27] 3.2.3 Actively Traded Bonds This Week - The report selects the top 20 urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds in terms of trading volume this week for investors' reference [29]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced fluctuations and adjustments, with major indices generally declining, particularly the ChiNext and CSI 500, while the Shanghai 50 and SME 100 saw smaller declines. The current valuation of the Sci-Tech 50 and Wind All A indices is relatively high, with their PE(TTM) percentile above 90% since 2010 as of February 6, 2026 [1][11][14] - The report highlights a positive outlook for the upcoming spring market, suggesting that favorable policies and fundamental factors may emerge in the coming months. However, a short-term correction is anticipated before the Spring Festival due to tightening liquidity and reduced trading enthusiasm among investors [3][25] - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining positions during the holiday period, as historical data indicates that the market tends to perform well in the 20 trading days following the Spring Festival [3][31] Group 2 - Key industries to focus on include electronics, power equipment, machinery, non-ferrous metals, communications, and computers, which are expected to show growth and independent prosperity in February. The report suggests that investors should pay attention to these sectors [4][34][35] - The report identifies short-term investment opportunities in the "price increase" theme, particularly in chemical raw materials and petroleum and petrochemical sectors, while recommending a mid-term strategy to accumulate positions in the metals sector after it stabilizes [4][35] - The report notes that the second-hand housing market in several key cities showed signs of recovery in January, with significant year-on-year increases in transaction volumes, indicating a potential rebound in the real estate sector [21][22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Insights - The company is positioned to benefit from the acceleration of domestic aircraft deliveries and the development opportunities in commercial aerospace, with significant projects and contracts in place [1][2] - The company has increased its R&D investments and is focusing on high-quality, low-cost development in emerging sectors such as commercial aerospace and low-altitude economy, despite facing short-term profit pressures [3] Summary by Sections Aerospace and Commercial Opportunities - The domestic large aircraft delivery is expected to speed up, with 15 C919 aircraft projected to be delivered in 2025, an increase from 2024 [1] - The company has secured contracts for composite material components and tooling, including a 246.3 million yuan project with AVIC [1] - The company is actively involved in the manufacturing of composite parts for major domestic aircraft manufacturers, including components for the C919 and CJ-1000 engines [1] Satellite Communication and Emerging Markets - The company has completed key satellite communication products and is positioned as a core supplier for ground systems, which is expected to benefit from the growing demand in commercial aerospace [2] - The company plans to enhance its R&D efforts in integrated aerospace products and communication technologies to expand its product offerings [2] Financial Performance and Projections - The company anticipates a significant decline in net profit for 2025, projecting approximately 41 million yuan, a decrease of about 59.63% year-on-year due to increased R&D costs and customer budget cuts [3] - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 532 million yuan and 746 million yuan, respectively, with a new projection for 2027 at 1.018 billion yuan [4] - The expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 0.10 yuan, 0.32 yuan, and 0.46 yuan, respectively [4]

Group 1: Macro Insights - By 2025, China's outbound direct investment is expected to increase, with more small and medium-sized enterprises venturing abroad. The light manufacturing and home appliance sectors are projected to have a high proportion of overseas revenue [2] - Industries with high exposure to foreign markets, such as light manufacturing and automotive, are expected to perform better in terms of stock prices. The correlation between overseas gross margins and revenue structure indicates that rising overseas gross margins will drive business expansion [2] - Early-stage industries for going abroad include machinery, basic chemicals, and power equipment/home appliances, while industries accelerating their overseas expansion include electronics, light manufacturing, and automotive [2] Group 2: Company Research - Qualcomm's FY26Q1 performance met expectations, but the guidance for FY26Q2 fell short due to memory shortages and price increases negatively impacting downstream demand. The forecast for GAAP net profit for FY2026-2028 is $11.5 billion, $12.5 billion, and $13 billion, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 14X, 13X, and 12X [4] - Chao Hong Ji has focused on product research and innovation, transitioning from a channel-driven to a product-driven approach. The company is expected to achieve net profits of 483 million, 700 million, and 838 million yuan from 2025 to 2027, with EPS of 0.54, 0.79, and 0.94 yuan, respectively, and a target price of 16.77 yuan [5] - Yum China reported Q4 2025 revenue of $2.823 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9%, and operating profit of $187 million, up 25%. The same-store sales growth accelerated, and the company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2026-2027 to $1.027 billion and $1.109 billion, respectively [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qualcomm (QCOM.O) [6] Core Insights - Qualcomm's FY26Q1 performance met expectations, but the guidance for FY26Q2 fell short due to adverse impacts from memory shortages and price increases affecting downstream demand [1] - FY26Q1 Non-GAAP revenue was $12.252 billion, a 5% year-over-year increase, with Non-GAAP net profit at $3.781 billion [1] - The guidance for FY26Q2 is projected Non-GAAP revenue of $10.2 to $11 billion, below the consensus estimate of $11.16 billion [1] Summary by Sections QCT Mobile Business - FY26Q1 mobile business revenue was $7.824 billion, up 3% year-over-year, driven by increased shipments of Snapdragon chips [2] - Qualcomm secured a 75% supply share for high-end smartphone chips for Samsung's upcoming series [2] - The guidance for FY26Q2 mobile revenue is approximately $6 billion, with expectations of growth being constrained by memory chip shortages [2] QCT IoT Business - FY26Q1 IoT revenue reached $1.688 billion, a 9% year-over-year increase, primarily due to higher shipments in edge networking and consumer products [3] - The company continues to expand into vertical applications in edge networking and industrial IoT, with new products launched at CES 2026 [3] - The PC segment saw the release of the Snapdragon X2 Plus chip, enhancing performance significantly [3] QCT Automotive Business - FY26Q1 automotive revenue was $1.101 billion, a 15% year-over-year increase, attributed to higher shipments of vehicles equipped with Qualcomm's smart cockpit technology [4] - Qualcomm signed a long-term supply agreement with Volkswagen Group, expanding its supply to brands like Audi and Porsche [4] - The company is collaborating with CARIAD and Bosch to develop autonomous driving systems [4] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts GAAP net profits of $11.5 billion, $12.5 billion, and $13 billion for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 respectively, with growth rates of 107.7%, 8.4%, and 4.2% [4] - The current price corresponds to FY2026-2028 P/E ratios of 14X, 13X, and 12X [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yum China (9987.HK) [1] Core Insights - The company reported Q4 2025 revenue of $2.823 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9% (or 7% excluding foreign currency effects), and operating profit of $187 million, up 25% (or 23% excluding foreign currency effects) [5][6] - Same-store sales growth accelerated in Q4 2025, with system sales up 7% year-on-year, and same-store sales up 3% [6] - The company plans to exceed 20,000 stores by 2026, with a net addition of over 1,900 stores, accelerating from 2025 [7] Revenue Performance - Q4 2025 same-store sales growth was driven by KFC and Pizza Hut, with KFC's same-store sales up 3% and Pizza Hut's up 1% [6] - The company expects continued growth in same-store revenue and system sales in 2026, projecting high single-digit growth [6] Store Expansion - In Q4 2025, the company added 587 new stores, bringing the total to 18,101 [7] - The company achieved a net addition of 1,706 stores in 2025, meeting its target of 1,600-1,800 new stores [7] Profitability Improvement - Q4 2025 restaurant profit margin improved to 13.0%, up 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The core operating profit for Q4 2025 was $185 million, a 23% increase year-on-year, driven by operational efficiency and favorable commodity prices [8] New Business Developments - The company made significant progress in new business initiatives, including the expansion of KFC Coffee and KPRO, which contributed to sales growth [9] - New product offerings, such as KFC's spicy chicken and Pizza Hut's handmade thin-crust pizza, attracted younger consumers and drove sales [9] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report raises the net profit forecast for 2026-2027 to $1.027 billion and $1.109 billion, respectively, with an EPS of $2.90 for 2026 [10] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 17x for 2026, indicating strong growth potential for the leading Western fast-food company [10]

Group 1: Current Trends in Overseas Investment - In 2025, China's total outward direct investment is projected to reach $174.38 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%[13] - Non-financial outward direct investment is expected to be $145.66 billion, growing by 1.3% year-on-year, with the number of companies engaging in overseas investment increasing by 21.4%[13] - The export growth of intermediate and capital goods is notably high, while consumer goods have entered negative growth since April 2025[13] Group 2: Industry Performance in Overseas Revenue - In the first half of 2025, the highest overseas revenue shares are seen in light manufacturing (35.4%) and home appliances (34.4%) among 31 A-share industries[21] - The electronics and machinery sectors show significant year-on-year growth in overseas revenue, with telecommunications at 33.4% and non-bank financial services at 32.9%[21] - Private enterprises are increasingly active in overseas markets, with a 14.1% year-on-year increase in overseas revenue, compared to a 3.5% decline for state-owned enterprises[32] Group 3: Profitability and Margins - The average overseas gross margin for listed companies is 29.2%, compared to 24.7% for domestic operations, indicating a higher profitability in international markets[33] - Industries such as computers (51.6%), pharmaceuticals (45.2%), and beauty care (36.3%) exhibit high overseas gross margins, while sectors like real estate (7.7%) and steel (8.7%) show lower margins[33] - The average overseas gross margin increased by 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, contributing to the expansion of overseas business scales[34] Group 4: Regional Investment Trends - Investment in ASEAN remains active, with 190 investment announcements in 2025, primarily targeting Thailand, Singapore, and Vietnam[39] - In Latin America, investments are focused on the automotive and machinery sectors, particularly in Mexico, to leverage tariff advantages under the USMCA[43] - Investment in Europe is shifting towards second-tier countries like Hungary and Serbia, with a focus on machinery, automotive, and electrical equipment sectors[45]