2025 年 12 月 23 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 行业研究 【建材】推动投资止跌回稳，着力扩大有效投资——建材、建筑及基建公募 REITs 半 月报（11 月 29 日-12 月 19 日）(买入) 基建投资下滑，个别细分领域保持较快增长。中央经济工作会议中提出推动投资止跌 回稳；"十五五"期间我国投资仍将保持一定增量，但将更加注重投资效益，重视项 目质量及项目落地，重大工程仍将是传统基建领域的重点。当前我们建议关注：新材 料方向：中国巨石，国恩股份，濮耐股份，科达制造，宏润建设（布局机器人业务）， 洁美科技。基建地产链方向：中国建筑、东方雨虹、海螺水泥。 【房地产】1-11 月百城宅地成交建面同比-15%，成交楼面均价同比+9%——土地市 场月度跟踪报告（2025 年 11 月）(增持) | | A 股市场 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘 | 涨跌% | | 上证综指 | 3917.36 | 0.69 | | 沪深 300 | 4611.62 | 0.95 | | 深证成指 | 13332.73 | 1.47 | | 中小板指 | 8083.6 | 1.60 | ...

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors related to quantitative finance[1][2][3]

2025 年 12 月 22 日 行业研究 1-11 月百城宅地成交建面同比-15%，成交楼面均价同比+9% ——土地市场月度跟踪报告（2025 年 11 月） 要点 2025 年 1-11 月，百城宅地成交建面同比-15%，成交楼面均价同比+9%。 2025 年 1-11 月，百城成交住宅类用地建面为 2.21 亿平，累计同比-15.1%；成 交楼面均价为 6,295 元/平方米，累计同比+9.4%。分能级城市来看，1-11 月， 一线城市：供应住宅类用地建面为 1,041 万平，累计同比-29.6%；成交建面 778 万平，累计同比-28.7%；成交楼面均价为 39,283 元/平方米，累计同比+29.5%。 二线城市：供应住宅类用地建面为 1.37 亿平，累计同比-1.8%；成交建面 9,273 万平，累计同比+4.4%；成交楼面均价为 6,986 元/平方米，累计同比+4.2%。 三线城市：供应住宅类用地建面为 2.01 亿平，累计同比-23.6%；成交建面 1.21 亿平，累计同比-24.9%；成交楼面均价为 3,635 元/平方米，累计同比+2.0%。 2025 年 1-11 月，新增土储价值排名 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [4][5]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the activation of "medical insurance" through AI in healthcare, suggesting a focus on investment opportunities in related sectors such as home medical devices, offline health check-ups, and pharmaceutical retail [2][21][23]. - The report highlights the importance of clinical value in the pharmaceutical sector, advocating for investments in innovative drug chains and medical devices, particularly in light of evolving domestic and international policies [3][26][27]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The A-share pharmaceutical and biotechnology index fell by 0.14%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.14 percentage points, while outperforming the ChiNext index by 1.39 percentage points, ranking 22nd among 31 sub-industries [1][10][16]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Healthcare Index decreased by 1.77%, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 0.19 percentage points [1][10]. R&D Progress - Recent developments include the NDA application for SSGJ-608 by Sanofi, clinical application advancements for vaccines by CanSino and Shiyao Group, and ongoing clinical trials for various drugs by Heng Rui and CanOya [1][31]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on three categories of companies: 1. AI + Home Medical Devices, recommending companies like Yuyue Medical and Sinocare [23][25]. 2. AI + Offline Health Check-ups, with a focus on Meinian Health, which has significant data resources for AI model calibration [23][25]. 3. AI + Pharmaceutical Retail, highlighting Alibaba Health and Shuyu Pingmin as key players [23][25]. Key Company Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for several companies, recommending "Buy" for companies like Innovent Biologics, Yifan Biologics, and Mindray Medical [4][28]. Important Company Announcements - Recent announcements include various clinical trial approvals and strategic partnerships among key players in the pharmaceutical sector, indicating ongoing innovation and development [30][31]. Financial Data Updates - Basic medical insurance revenue reached 2,108.6 billion yuan in the first nine months of 2025, with a monthly income of 227.6 billion yuan in September, reflecting a 15.9% month-on-month increase [34]. - The pharmaceutical manufacturing industry reported a year-on-year revenue decline of 2.90% for the first ten months of 2025, indicating challenges in the sector [49]. Regulatory and Market Trends - The report notes a structural shift in domestic policies favoring innovative drugs and highlights the increasing global demand for pharmaceuticals driven by aging populations [27][26].

Market Overview - The A-share market is expected to experience a "spring rally," driven by central bank policy adjustments and significant economic data releases, with a potential upward trend in 2026[2] - The market showed a strong upward movement last week, indicating the possible start of the 2026 cross-year market rally[2] Investment Strategies - Analysts recommend focusing on growth and consumer sectors based on historical patterns and current market conditions[2] - The market's large-cap style outperformed, suggesting a transition from a liquidity-driven market to one driven by fundamentals[2] Fund Flows - A total of 28 new funds were established last week, with a combined issuance of 18.218 billion units[2] - Stock-type ETFs experienced slight outflows, primarily from TMT, financial real estate, and ChiNext theme ETFs, while broad-based ETFs saw significant inflows[2] Bond Market Insights - The total issuance of industrial bonds reached 163.31 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.44% week-on-week, accounting for 44.07% of the total credit bond issuance[2] - The REITs market saw a decline, with the weighted REITs index returning -2.74% last week, ranking lower than other major asset classes[2] Economic Data - November's economic indicators showed a further decline, with industrial production growth slowing down year-on-year, while fixed asset investment's cumulative year-on-year decline expanded[2] - The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose to 4.6% in November, attributed to government shutdown impacts, but is expected to decrease as the government reopens[2] Sector Recommendations - In the petrochemical sector, companies like CNOOC and China Oilfield Services are recommended due to their high growth potential in offshore oil and gas exploration[5] - The semiconductor materials industry is expected to expand due to increased demand for high-purity materials driven by AI computing and data center construction[5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Overweight" for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [5] Core Insights - The price spread between hot-rolled and rebar steel is at its lowest level in six years [3] - The liquidity indicators show that gold prices have reached a new high since November 2025, with the current price at 4341 USD/oz [10] - The construction and real estate sectors are experiencing a decline in high furnace capacity utilization, which has been below last year's levels for three consecutive weeks [23] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquidity - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for November 2025 is 52.50, up 0.17% month-on-month [10] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference is -3.1 percentage points, down 1.10 percentage points month-on-month [19] - The current London gold spot price is 4341 USD/oz, reflecting a 0.97% increase from the previous week [10] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The national high furnace capacity utilization rate is 85%, down 1.0 percentage points month-on-month [9] - The cumulative year-on-year decline in national real estate new construction area for January to November 2025 is -20.50% [23] - The cumulative year-on-year decline in national commodity housing sales area for January to November 2025 is -7.80% [23] Price Movements - The price of rebar is currently 3320 CNY/ton, reflecting a 2.15% increase [9] - The price of titanium dioxide is 13000 CNY/ton, with a gross profit of -1795 CNY/ton [78] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 21840 CNY/ton, down 1.04% month-on-month [9] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in November 2025 is 47.60%, up 1.7 percentage points month-on-month [3] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping prices is 1124.73 points, reflecting a 0.60% increase [3] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate is 76.50%, up 0.80 percentage points month-on-month [3] Valuation Metrics - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.28%, while the chemical sector showed the best performance with a 2.58% increase [4] - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the Shanghai Composite is currently at 0.51, with a historical high of 0.82 [4] - The report suggests that the steel sector's supply may be reasonably constrained, leading to a potential recovery in profitability to historical average levels [4]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The unexpected decline in the US CPI for November is attributed to statistical "distortion" due to government shutdown disruptions, with a shorter data collection period and promotional season affecting price statistics [1] - The market's reaction to this "distorted" data is limited, with a high probability of maintaining interest rate pauses at 72.3% until further data is released in December [1] Group 2: Market Strategy - Historical trends indicate a "spring rally" in the A-share market, driven by monetary policy adjustments and significant economic data releases, suggesting a potential upward market movement [2] - The recent strong market performance may signal the beginning of the 2026 cross-year rally, with a focus on growth and consumer sectors for industry allocation [2] Group 3: Bond Market Observations - The secondary market for publicly listed REITs has seen a continuous decline, with a weighted REITs index return of -2.74% for the week [3] - The issuance of credit bonds has decreased, with industrial bonds accounting for 44.07% of the total issuance, reflecting a 12.44% week-on-week decline [4] Group 4: Industry Research - Computer Sector - The global tech investment enthusiasm remains strong, with a structural differentiation between "strong computing power" and "weak applications," suggesting a focus on AI applications in 2026 [7] - Three main investment lines are recommended: industry empowerment, overseas application, and edge AI, highlighting companies with strong industry know-how and high overseas revenue [7] Group 5: Non-Banking Sector Insights - In a low-interest-rate environment, equity assets have become crucial for insurance companies to enhance investment returns, with a record high of 9.3% equity asset ratio among five listed insurers [8] - The proposed regulatory framework aims to improve asset-liability management in insurance companies, enhancing long-term operational resilience [9] Group 6: Energy Sector Developments - In November, power generation increased by 2.7% year-on-year, with improvements in nuclear, solar, and wind energy growth rates [10] - The storage and hydrogen sectors are expected to see continued investment opportunities, driven by ongoing demand and new project launches [11] Group 7: Metal Industry Analysis - The copper market is expected to see price increases, supported by a tight supply-demand balance and rising commercial net long positions [12] - Investment recommendations include companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum, with a focus on potential risks from economic conditions and supply releases [12] Group 8: Chemical Industry Insights - The semiconductor materials sector is experiencing accelerated growth due to AI and data center demands, with a focus on high-purity materials [14] - Companies with technological advantages and strong customer ties in high-end materials are recommended for investment [14] Group 9: Medical Sector Developments - Ant Group's AI health assistant has rapidly gained popularity, transforming healthcare management through a digitalized approach [15] - Investment focus includes AI and home medical devices, offline health check-ups, and pharmaceutical retail [15] Group 10: Company-Specific Research - Taihe Co., Ltd. is recognized for its leading technology and capacity in core products, with significant profit growth expected from new product registrations [16] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 4.55 billion, 5.64 billion, and 6.83 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with a target price of 33.67 yuan [16] Group 11: Media Sector Insights - The advertising demand from internet clients remains strong, with potential revenue growth from new business initiatives [17] - Profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been slightly adjusted downwards, reflecting cautious optimism amid macroeconomic conditions [17] Group 12: TMT Sector Developments - Xiaomi's long-term AI strategy emphasizes substantial R&D investments, indicating a commitment to sustainable growth in AI applications [18] - The company is projected to achieve non-IFRS net profits of 426 billion, 438 billion, and 510 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [18] Group 13: Medical Device Sector Insights - The company is a leader in the interventional field, with significant revenue growth from overseas and peripheral products [19] - Profit forecasts have been adjusted due to potential policy impacts, with expected net profits of 6.33 billion, 7.05 billion, and 8.48 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [19]

2025 年 12 月 21 日 环保 买入（维持） 作者 分析师：殷中枢 执业证书编号：S0930518040004 010-58452071 yinzs@ebscn.com 分析师：郝骞 执业证书编号：S0930520050001 021-52523827 haoqian@ebscn.com 分析师：陈无忌 执业证书编号：S0930522070001 021-52523693 chenwuji@ebscn.com 电力设备新能源、环保 持续看好储能、氢氨醇板块投资机会 ——电新环保行业周报 20251221 电力设备新能源 买入（维持） 分析师：和霖 执业证书编号：S0930523070006 021-52523853 helin@ebscn.com 分析师：邓怡亮 执业证书编号：S0930525070003 021-52523802 dengyiliang@ebscn.com 行业与沪深 300 指数对比图 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 2024/12/19 2025/4/20 2025/8/20 2025/12/20 电力设备(申万) 环保(申万) 沪深300 资料来源：iFinD 要点 整 ...

2025 年 12 月 21 日 行业研究 COMEX 铜非商业净多头持仓处于 1990 年以来 87%分位数 ——铜行业周报（20251215-20251219） 要点 本周小结：继续看好铜价上行。截至 2025 年 12 月 19 日，SHFE 铜收盘价 93180 元/吨，环比 12 月 12 日-0.96%；LME 铜收盘价 11882 美元/吨，环比 12 月 12 日+2.85%。（1）宏观：美国 11 月失业率达 4.6%，2026 年 1 月降息概率环比 回升。（2）供需：据 SMM，中国冶炼厂与安托法加斯塔敲定 2026 年铜精矿 TC 长单 Benchmark 为 0 美元/吨（本周 TC 现货价为-44 美元/吨），铜冶炼厂利 润或好于预期。线缆企业开工率本周略有回升，Q4 电网旺季效应仍存；Q4 空调 排产同比下降，但环比改善；供需仍维持偏紧格局，继续看好铜价上行。 库存：国内铜社库环比+1.7%，LME 铜库存环比-3.3%。（1）港口铜精矿库存： 截至 2025 年 12 月 19 日，国内主流港口铜精矿库存 73.1 万吨，环比上周-4.3%。 （2）全球电解铜库存：截至 202 ...

2025 年 12 月 21 日 行业研究 完善资产负债监管框架，提升行业长期经营韧性 行业与沪深 300 指数对比图 ——《保险公司资产负债管理办法（征求意见稿）》点评 非银行金融 增持（维持） 作者 分析师：王一峰 执业证书编号：S0930519050002 010-57378038 wangyf@ebscn.com 分析师：黄怡婷 执业证书编号：S0930524070003 010-57378023 huangyiting@ebscn.com 资料来源：Wind 相关研报 股票风险因子差异化下调，推动险资进一步 发挥耐心资本优势——《关于调整保险公司 相 关 业 务 风 险 因 子 的 通 知 》 点 评 （2025-12-06） 长周期考核权重升至 70%，利好险资加大入 市力度——《进一步加强国有商业保险公司 长周期考核的通知》点评（2025-07-12） 保险权益投资空间拓宽，长期资金入市有望 提速——《关于调整保险资金权益类资产监 管比例有关事项的通知》点评（2025-04-09） 进一步明确长周期考核要求，提升中长期资 金入市力度——《关于推动中长期资金入市 工作的实施方案》点评（2025-0 ...