2025 年 9 月 7 日 行业研究 美国 9 月降息概率升至 100%，黄铜棒 8 月开工率创近 6 年同期新低 ——铜行业周报（20250901-20250905） 要点 本周小结：美国 9 月降息概率升至 100%，供需边际向好，铜价有望 2025Q4 走 强。截至 2025 年 9 月 5 日，SHFE 铜收盘价 80140 元/吨，环比 8 月 29 日+0.92%； LME 铜收盘价 9898 美元/吨，环比 8 月 29 日-0.05%。（1）宏观：美国 8 月非 农就业数据不及预期，市场预计 9 月降息概率升至 100%，美元指数偏弱。（2） 供需：此前美国铜关税导致的库存搬运已进入尾声，LME 和 COMEX 累库有望逐 步结束。矿端、废铜后续仍维持紧张，8 月电解铜产量环比微降，随着电网、空 调需求 Q4 环比回升以及贸易冲突逐步消化，铜价后续有望上行。 库存：国内铜社库环比+10.6%，LME 铜库存环比-0.6%。（1）国内港口铜精矿 库存：截至 2025 年 9 月 5 日，国内主流港口铜精矿库存 68.8 万吨，环比上周 -3.1%。（2）全球电解铜库存：截至 2025 年 9 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market performed poorly this week, with most broad indices declining, while only the ChiNext index rose. The growth style of large-cap stocks outperformed, while small-cap growth and large-cap value stocks saw significant declines. In terms of sectors, the power equipment, comprehensive, and non-ferrous metals industries performed well, while defense, computers, and non-bank financials lagged behind [1][16][18] - The recent adjustment in the A-share market is primarily attributed to profit-taking pressure, with the Shanghai Composite Index and the Sci-Tech 50 dropping by 3.0% and 4.7% respectively from August 26 to September 4. Approximately 81% of stocks declined during this period, with 55% of stocks falling more than 5% [2][20][24] - The current market valuation is at a relatively high level compared to historical standards, leading to increased market volatility. The Shanghai Composite Index's valuation is at a high level since 2010, and profit-taking pressure is expected to persist in the short term [2][30][31] Group 2 - The market style is expected to rotate between growth and balanced styles in September, with a focus on sectors such as power equipment, communication, computers, electronics, automobiles, and media. The "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to improve the supply side of the economy, and attention should be paid to whether there will be continued demand-side support [4][60][64] - The five-dimensional industry comparison framework has been established to analyze industry performance based on market style, fundamentals, liquidity, trading, and valuation. In September, the focus will be on sectors like power equipment, communication, computers, electronics, automobiles, and media, regardless of whether the market style is balanced or growth [62][63][64]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Add" [6] Core Insights - In 2025, the real estate market is expected to benefit from the implementation of a series of real estate policies, leading to a stabilization in high-energy core cities and promoting urban renewal and structural optimization [4][116] - The top 50 real estate companies saw a 36.3% year-on-year increase in new land reserve value, totaling 625.9 billion yuan from January to August 2025, while the area of new land reserves decreased by 2% [2][81] - The core 30 cities experienced a 3.4% year-on-year increase in total land area transactions from January to August 2025, with a total transaction value of 731.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 32.1% increase [3][97] Summary by Sections 1. Land Supply and Demand Situation - From January to July 2025, the transaction area of residential land in 100 cities increased by 0.3% year-on-year, while the supply of residential land decreased by 16.8% [21][11] - In July 2025, the supply of residential land in first-tier cities decreased by 76.8% year-on-year, while the transaction area decreased by 41.4% [29][39] 2. Land Transaction Prices - The average transaction price of residential land in 100 cities increased by 23.7% year-on-year from January to July 2025, reaching 7,391 yuan per square meter [55][66] - In July 2025, the average transaction price in first-tier cities was 39,229 yuan per square meter, reflecting a 37.5% year-on-year increase [66][55] 3. Top 50 Real Estate Companies' Land Acquisition - The top 50 real estate companies added land reserves valued at 295 billion yuan in August 2025, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.8% [81][86] - The leading companies in land reserve value from January to August 2025 were China Overseas Land & Investment (66.4 billion yuan), Greentown China (61.5 billion yuan), and Poly Developments (52.8 billion yuan) [2][89] 4. Core 30 Cities Land Transaction Situation - In August 2025, the core 30 cities saw a 42.1% year-on-year decrease in total land transaction area, with 607 million square meters transacted [95][4] - The overall premium rate for land transactions in the core 30 cities was 6.3% in August 2025, an increase of 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [95][114] 5. Investment Recommendations - Focus on stable leading companies with high product reputation and continuous sales ranking improvement, such as Poly Developments and China Merchants Shekou [5][117] - Look for companies with rich stock resources and strong operational brand competitiveness, such as China Resources Land and Shanghai Lingang [5][117] - Anticipate long-term growth in the property service industry, recommending companies like China Merchants Jinling and Greentown Service [5][117]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][3]. Core Viewpoints - The company achieved a revenue of 1.515 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 23.95%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 112 million yuan, up 5.83% year-on-year [1][2]. - The traditional energy-saving and environmental protection business has shown steady growth, while the electronic new materials segment, particularly the target materials business, has made significant breakthroughs [2]. - The subsidiary, Zhaoheng Technology, is expected to see promising developments in the military industry, with a focus on stealth materials and carbon fiber composite materials [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of 99 million yuan, reversing from negative to positive [1]. - The energy-saving heat exchange equipment segment generated 543 million yuan in revenue, a growth of 11.90%, while the water treatment business saw a revenue increase of 41.56% to 228 million yuan [2]. Business Segments - The electronic new materials segment, including target materials and ultra-high temperature special materials, achieved a revenue of 408 million yuan, marking a 49.44% increase [2]. - The stealth materials and products are anticipated to become a new growth driver for the company, with significant advancements in the development of low-indium and indium-free high-efficiency target materials for the photovoltaic sector [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for the company is set at 220 million yuan for 2025, 280 million yuan for 2026, and 341 million yuan for 2027 [3]. - The company is positioned as a platform-type new materials company, with multiple business areas contributing to growth momentum [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 873 million yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.02%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 32.31% to 48 million yuan [1] - The company is actively advancing its globalization strategy, with overseas business accounting for 47.50% of total revenue, a year-on-year increase of 45.53% [3] - The company has achieved an integrated industrial layout of "glass deep processing equipment and products," positioning itself as a leader in the glass deep processing sector [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the non-metallic building materials segment generated revenue of 306 million yuan, down 10.34% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 20.38%, a decrease of 9.37 percentage points [2] - The specialized equipment segment achieved revenue of 567 million yuan, up 21.42% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 29.75%, an increase of 1.24 percentage points [2] - The company’s fourth-generation high-end glass tempering equipment has achieved two industry-firsts in smart integration, laying a solid foundation for future intelligent development [2] Global Expansion - The company’s products are sold in over 110 countries and regions, with more than 80% coverage in Belt and Road countries and regions [3] - The report highlights that the overseas market expansion has become a core driver of the company's performance growth [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 and 2026 to be 104 million yuan and 122 million yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 144 million yuan [3] - The company is positioned as a leader in the glass deep processing field, maintaining a "Buy" rating [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Overweight" for the basic chemical industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The refrigerant industry is experiencing a sustained upward trend in demand, with leading companies showing significant profit growth in H1 2025. The production quotas for second-generation fluorinated refrigerants will be further reduced, and third-generation refrigerants will be subject to production quotas, tightening supply. This, combined with a steady recovery in downstream demand, is optimizing the supply-demand dynamics in the refrigerant market [1][2] - The price of refrigerants has been rising, leading to substantial increases in profitability for major companies. For instance, in H1 2025, the net profits of major domestic refrigerant companies such as Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., Yonghe Co., and Dongyue Group increased by 146.97%, 159.22%, 140.80%, and 153.28% respectively [1] - The price differences for third-generation refrigerants have significantly increased, with R32 prices rising by 15.24% since early July 2025 and 40.70% since the beginning of the year. The price difference for R32 reached 42,761 yuan/ton, reflecting a 19.68% increase since early July and a 66.79% increase since the beginning of the year [2] - Leading refrigerant companies are accelerating their entry into the liquid cooling sector, driven by tightening environmental regulations and increasing demand for AI computing power. Companies like Juhua Co. and Sanmei Co. are investing in high-value-added liquid cooling technologies, which are expected to benefit from the growing AI computing needs and domestic substitution opportunities [3][4] - The liquid cooling technology market is projected to grow significantly, with global market sizes expected to reach 4.5 billion USD in 2025 and 19.4 billion USD by 2032, representing a CAGR of 23% from 2025 to 2032 [4] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The refrigerant industry is in a high prosperity cycle, with major companies reporting strong performance due to supply constraints and rising prices [1][5] - The report highlights the ongoing recovery in downstream demand, which is expected to further support price increases in the refrigerant market [2] Price Trends - The report tracks significant price increases for key refrigerants, with R32, R125, and R134a showing notable price growth in 2025 [2][18] - The price of R32 reached 60,500 yuan/ton, marking a 40.70% increase since the beginning of 2025 [2] Company Developments - Major companies are expanding their operations into the liquid cooling market, with Juhua Co. planning to produce 5,000 tons/year of cooling liquid and Sanmei Co. launching a 19,000 tons/year electronic-grade fluorinated liquid project [3][4] - The transition to liquid cooling technologies is seen as a strategic move to capture growth opportunities in the AI sector and to leverage existing technological advantages [3][4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, as of the end of August 2025, the balance of outstanding credit bonds in China was 30.35 trillion yuan. In August 2025, the issuance of credit bonds decreased month - on - month, with a net financing of 519.25 billion yuan [1][9]. - In August 2025, the trading volume and turnover rate of both urban investment bonds and industrial bonds decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the credit spreads of all levels of urban investment and industrial bonds widened compared with the previous month [2][36][40]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Credit Bond Issuance and Maturity 3.1.1 Credit Bond Issuance - As of the end of August 2025, the balance of outstanding credit bonds was 30.35 trillion yuan. From August 1 to August 31, 2025, the issuance of credit bonds was 1120.493 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 7.94%, with a total repayment of 1068.568 billion yuan and a net financing of 519.25 billion yuan [1][9]. - **Urban Investment Bonds**: As of the end of August 2025, the balance of outstanding urban investment bonds was 15.32 trillion yuan. In August 2025, the issuance was 499.695 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 19.14% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.48%, with a net financing of 11.21 billion yuan. Regionally, Jiangsu had the highest issuance, followed by Shandong, Zhejiang, and Chongqing. Ratings - wise, AA + and AAA - rated urban investment bonds accounted for a relatively high proportion [10][13][20]. - **Industrial Bonds**: As of the end of August 2025, the balance of outstanding industrial bonds was 15.03 trillion yuan. In August 2025, the issuance was 620.798 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 22.19% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.51%, with a net financing of 508.05 billion yuan. By industry, the utility sector had the highest issuance, and in terms of net financing, the utility and oil and petrochemical sectors had large negative net financing amounts [21][24][26]. 3.1.2 Credit Bond Maturity - **Urban Investment Bonds**: From September to December 2025, Jiangsu, Shandong, Zhejiang, and Sichuan had relatively large maturity scales of urban investment bonds [27]. - **Industrial Bonds**: From September to December 2025, the utility, non - banking finance, building decoration, transportation, and real estate sectors had relatively large maturity scales of credit bonds [32]. 3.2 Credit Bond Trading and Spreads 3.2.1 Credit Bond Trading - **Urban Investment Bonds**: In August 2025, the trading volume of urban investment bonds was 914.612 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 5.97%, showing both month - on - month and year - on - year decreases [36]. - **Industrial Bonds**: In August 2025, the trading volume of industrial bonds was 1268.887 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 8.44%, showing both month - on - month and year - on - year decreases [40]. 3.2.2 Credit Bond Spreads - **Urban Investment Bonds**: In August 2025, the credit spreads of all levels of urban investment bonds widened compared with the previous month. Regionally and by rating, different regions and ratings had different spread levels and changes [42][46]. - **Industrial Bonds**: In August 2025, the credit spreads of all levels of industrial bonds widened compared with the previous month. By industry and rating, different industries and ratings had different spread levels and changes [48][52].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an updated target price of 22.41 CNY, corresponding to an 18x PE for 2025E [3][6]. Core Insights - The company's 2Q25 performance exceeded expectations, with total revenue for 1H25 increasing by 6.2% year-on-year to 3.45 billion CNY, and net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 27.4% to 570 million CNY. The 2Q25 revenue grew by 11.0% year-on-year and 7.1% quarter-on-quarter to 1.78 billion CNY, while net profit surged by 44.9% year-on-year and 22.8% quarter-on-quarter to 320 million CNY. This strong performance is attributed to increased foreign exchange gains and scale effects [1][2]. - The gross margin for 1H25 improved by 0.6 percentage points to 29.3%, with a decrease in selling, general, and administrative expenses ratio by 0.1 percentage points to 11.8%. In 2Q25, the gross margin increased by 2.1 percentage points year-on-year and 1.0 percentage point quarter-on-quarter to 29.7%, while the selling, general, and administrative expenses ratio decreased by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year and increased by 0.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 11.9%. The improvement in gross margin is mainly due to lower raw material costs, scale effects, and internal cost optimization [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2025E, the company is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.226 billion CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 30.46%. The revenue for 2025E is projected to be 7.829 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 16.06% [4][11]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2025E is estimated at 1.24 CNY, with a return on equity (ROE) of 13.37% [4][13]. Business Development - The company is advancing its global manufacturing network, with the second phase of the Mexico plant entering production, focusing on components for new energy vehicles. The Malaysia plant has also commenced production of aluminum and zinc alloy components, aiming to serve Southeast Asian markets and provide strategic support for the US and European aftermarket [2]. - The company is making progress in its robotics business, including the acquisition of a 71% stake in Zhuoerbo (Ningbo) Precision Electromechanical Co., which is expected to enhance its automotive micro-motor technology and extend into the robotics field [2]. Valuation Metrics - The report projects a steady increase in revenue and net profit over the next few years, with a P/E ratio decreasing from 18 in 2023 to 11 in 2027, indicating an attractive valuation as the company grows [4][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][15]. Core Views - The company is entering an AI-driven innovation cycle in consumer electronics, with significant growth in automotive communication business [2][3]. - The company achieved a revenue of 124.5 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.18%, and a net profit of 6.644 billion yuan, up 23.13% year-on-year [1]. - The company is expanding its product lines and customer base in the automotive sector, focusing on key areas such as intelligent cockpit and driving assistance systems, which is expected to drive significant growth [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 62.715 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.51%, and a net profit of 3.601 billion yuan, up 23.09% year-on-year [1]. - The company forecasts a net profit of 4.246 to 4.699 billion yuan for Q3 2025, indicating a year-on-year growth of 15.41% to 27.74% [1]. Business Segments - The consumer electronics segment generated revenue of 97.799 billion yuan in H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.32% [2]. - The communication interconnect products and precision components business achieved revenue of 11.098 billion yuan in H1 2025, a significant increase of 48.65% year-on-year [2]. - The automotive interconnect products and precision components business saw revenue of 8.658 billion yuan in H1 2025, marking an impressive year-on-year growth of 82.07% [3]. Profitability and Valuation - The report adjusts the net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 16.675 billion yuan and 20.434 billion yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 25.118 billion yuan [3]. - The current market valuation corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19X for 2025, 15X for 2026, and 12X for 2027 [3].

Investment Rating - The report downgrades the investment rating of the company to "Accumulate" due to performance pressure and increased market competition [3][4]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 1.005 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.78%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 91.33% to 16 million yuan [1]. - The revenue from micro-inverter and monitoring equipment fell by 40.42% to 446 million yuan in H1 2025, with a gross margin of 47.60%, down 5.62 percentage points [2]. - The energy storage systems revenue grew by 37.05% to 188 million yuan in H1 2025, although the gross margin decreased by 5.22 percentage points to 11.80% [2]. - The company continues to enhance its R&D capabilities, with R&D expenses increasing by 36.61% to 166 million yuan, accounting for 16.48% of revenue [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported a total revenue of 1.005 billion yuan, with a net profit of 16 million yuan, reflecting a significant decline compared to the previous year [1]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenues of 669 million yuan, a 16.14% increase year-on-year, but net profit still fell by 77.87% [1]. Product Performance - The micro-inverter segment faced challenges, with a revenue drop of 40.42% in H1 2025, while the energy storage segment showed resilience with a 37.05% revenue increase [2]. - The company launched new energy storage products, including the HoyUltra2 and HPCS2500, aimed at addressing safety and profitability issues in commercial storage systems [2]. R&D and Future Outlook - The company is focusing on expanding its R&D team and increasing investment in research, with R&D expenses rising significantly [3]. - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised downwards, with expected net profits of 228 million yuan, 359 million yuan, and 476 million yuan respectively, reflecting a reduction of 50%, 42%, and 38% [3].