Group 1: Retail Data Overview - In June 2025, U.S. retail sales increased by 0.6% month-on-month, surpassing the expected 0.1% and rebounding from a previous decline of 0.9%[2] - Core retail sales (excluding automobiles and gasoline) rose by 0.5%, exceeding the forecast of 0.3% and improving from a revised previous value of -0.2%[2] - Key sectors showing strong performance included grocery stores (+1.8%), automobiles (+1.2%), building materials (+0.9%), and clothing (+0.9%)[11] Group 2: Economic Implications - Despite the positive retail data, the resilience of the U.S. economy is questioned due to potential tariff impacts and inflation adjustments[4] - The actual retail sales growth, adjusted for inflation (CPI increase of 0.3%), was only 0.3% in June, indicating limited consumer strength[4][9] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious approach, with a 97.4% probability of no rate cut in July and a likelihood of two rate cuts in the second half of 2025[5][15]

分析师点评 市场数据 行业研究 【零售】大促前置影响 6 月表现，黄金零售短期承压——2025 年 6 月社消零售数据 点评(买入) 2025 年 6 月社会消费品零售总额为 4.23 万亿元，同比增长 4.8%（wind 市场一致预 期为 5.56%），增速比 5 月下降 1.6 个百分点。增速环比有所下滑，主要由于去年同 期基数较高以及大促前置周期拉长，更多消费需求被提前释放所致。从细分品类看， 必选品增速环比均有所下降；可选品中金银珠宝类受金价高位震荡压制需求影响，增 速环比下降；同时国补相关品类仍然保持增长，但增速环比有所放缓。风险提示：宏 观经济增速和居民收入增速未达预期，地产后周期影响部分细分行业收入增速，渠道 变革大势对现有商业模式冲击高于预期。 2025 年 7 月 18 日 晨会速递 【基化】COFs：高性能结晶性多孔高分子材料，新能源等领域应用前景可期—— COFs 行业动态报告(增持) COFs 是一类具有精确可调孔道和表面功能的新型多孔晶体材料，其凭借独特的分子 设计性和优异性能，在能源存储、环境治理、生物医药等领域展现出广阔应用前景， 我们持续看好 COFs 材料未来发展前景。建议关 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Buy" [6] Core Viewpoints - In June 2025, the total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 4.23 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points compared to May [1] - The retail sales of gold and jewelry increased by 6.1% year-on-year in June, but the growth rate decreased by 15.7 percentage points compared to May [3] - The retail sales of household appliances grew by 32.4% year-on-year in June, although the growth rate fell by 20.6 percentage points from May [4] - The overall retail sales growth in June was impacted by a high base from the previous year and the elongation of the promotional cycle, leading to a release of consumer demand in advance [5] Summary by Relevant Sections Social Consumer Goods Retail - The total retail sales for June 2025 were 4.23 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8% [1] - The retail sales for the first half of 2025 reached 24.55 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0% [1] Consumer Price Index (CPI) - The CPI in June 2025 showed a year-on-year growth of 0.1%, improving from a -0.1% in May [1] Retail Categories Performance - Grocery and food retail sales grew by 8.7% year-on-year in June, while beverage sales declined by 4.4% [1] - Textile and clothing retail sales increased by 1.9% year-on-year, while cosmetics sales fell by 2.3% [2] - The retail sales of gold and jewelry increased by 6.1% year-on-year, but the growth rate decreased significantly [3] - Household appliances saw a substantial growth of 32.4% year-on-year, despite a decline in growth rate [4]

2025 年 7 月 17 日 行业研究 ——COFs 行业动态报告 要点 COFs 结构设计持续精进，合成方法革新推动产业化突破。共价有机框架材料 （COFs）是一类由有机分子通过共价键连接形成的结晶性多孔高分子材料， 具有规则有序的纳米孔道、高比表面积和优异的热化学稳定性。作为多孔有机 框架材料（POFs）的重要分支，COFs 可分为二维（类石墨结构）和三维（类 金刚石结构）两类，其结构可通过有机单体精准调控，兼具轻质、高孔隙率和 功能可设计性等优势。这类材料通过溶剂热法、离子热法等合成，在催化、储 能、生物医药等领域展现出应用潜力，其强共价键网络结构使其能耐受 500-600℃高温并保持稳定性。COFs 的发展代表了多孔材料从无机到有机、 从无序到有序的演进趋势。 COFs 跨领域应用加速落地，新能源与生命科学领域释放增长潜能。共价有机 框架材料（COFs）以其独特的可设计晶体结构和卓越的理化性能，正在多个 领域引发技术革命。这种材料通过分子级别的精准组装，实现了孔径、表面化 学性质和电子结构的自由调控，展现出传统多孔材料难以企及的性能优势。1） 在新能源领域，COFs 作为高效电极材料，显著提升了电池 ...

Macro Analysis - The inflation data in the US showed a rebound in June, driven by rising oil prices and the increasing impact of tariffs on goods inflation, with expectations that the CPI year-on-year high may exceed 3% in the second half of the year [2] Bond Market - In the first half of 2025, all adjusted convertible bonds had their ratings downgraded, with a decrease in the number of downgrades compared to the previous year; the majority of these bonds were rated AA- or below, with a focus on private enterprises in the basic chemical and computer industries [3] Industry Research Medical Industry - The disposable glove industry is expected to see a price turning point in the third quarter, with a focus on the overseas capacity release of leading domestic companies; as demand grows and costs are controlled, domestic companies are likely to gain global market share [4] Construction and Engineering - The solid-state battery sector is experiencing rapid development, with specific materials like silicon-carbon anodes and high-nickel cathodes likely to benefit; recommended companies include China National Materials, Puyang Refractories, and China Communications Construction [5] Company Research High-end Manufacturing - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 105-120 million yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a significant improvement; the increase is attributed to higher product deliveries and a favorable industry outlook [6] Electronics - The company plans to acquire a 30% stake in Rainbow Optoelectronics, further solidifying its position in the panel industry; profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downwards due to high depreciation costs, but the outlook remains positive due to recovering market conditions [7] Overseas TMT - Qualcomm is positioned as a leader in wireless communication chips, with expectations to maintain its market share in high-end smartphone SoCs and expand in PC and autonomous driving SoCs; the company is also exploring AI-related markets [8]

2025 年 7 月 16 日 要点 事件：近期，美国总统特朗普宣称将从 8 月 1 日起对 14 个国家的进口产品征收 关税，其中包括对马来西亚征收 25%的关税。 点评： 行业研究 三季度有望迎来价格拐点，关注国产龙头海外产能释放 ——一次性手套行业跟踪报告 25Q2 价格低点基本确立，关税或助推丁腈手套价格提升。2024 年 9 月 13 日， 美国对外贸易办公室确定大幅度上调部分中国产品的进口关税，其中一次性医疗 级丁腈手套关税上调至 50%，并于 2025 年 1 月 1 日正式实施；叠加 25 年 2 月 以来特朗普多次签署行政令提升对华关税，英科医疗等国内头部厂商已经开始逐 步将销售转移至非美市场。考虑到国内企业在非美市场竞争激烈，一次性医用级 丁腈手套 2025 年二季度价格约在 15~16 美元/箱，若美国对马来西亚加征关税， 或引起马来西亚厂商生产的手套价格上涨，我们预计涨价趋势或传导至国内厂 商，后续手套价格有望逐步回升，带动盈利能力提升。 市场格局分层明显，供应端中小厂商逐步出清。随着全球一次性手套产能向中国 转移叠加新冠疫情回落，国内企业通过产能扩张迅速成长为全球一次性医用级丁 腈手 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Solid-state batteries drive the demand for upstream materials related to silicon-carbon anodes and high-nickel cathodes. They represent the ultimate direction of "0-1" new technology progress in lithium batteries, and the market trend is often catalyzed by industrial technology advancement events. The market is expected to reach a scale of over RMB 100 billion by 2030, with the solid-state battery industry scale potentially reaching RMB 180 billion [4][11]. - As of Thursday (July 10, 2025), the total inventory of the glass industry was 57.34 million weight boxes, a month-on-month decrease of 1.66%; the inventory days were about 28.76 days, a month-on-month decrease of 0.65 days. The production was 12.78 million weight boxes, and the production and sales rate was 107.6%. The inventory has been decreasing for three consecutive weeks, exceeding expectations. It is predicted that glass prices are expected to rise seasonally when the peak season arrives in mid-to-late September, and the stock prices of glass leaders are also expected to rise [4]. - Current investment suggestions include focusing on Honglu Steel Structure, Sinoma Science & Technology, Punan Co., Ltd., Hainan Huatie, Beixin Building Materials, China National Chemical Engineering Co., Ltd., China State Construction Engineering Corporation, Shanghai Harbor, and Keda Industrial Group [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Special Topic: The Prosperous Development of Solid-state Batteries, and Related Targets of Silicon-carbon Anodes and High-nickel Cathode Materials May Benefit - **Solid-state battery industry chain**: Solid-state batteries are the ultimate direction of new technology progress in lithium batteries. From 2026 - 2028 is the critical stage for the mass production of all-solid-state batteries with different technical routes, among which the sulfide route is expected to be mass-produced first in 2026. After 2029, the lithium battery industry will enter the structural adjustment stage of maturity. It is predicted that the market space of all-solid-state batteries will reach over RMB 100 billion in 2030, and the industrial scale of solid-state batteries is expected to reach RMB 180 billion [4][11]. - **Silicon-carbon anode**: Silicon-carbon composites are breaking through the physical limit of traditional graphite anodes. To solve the problems of silicon anode materials such as capacity attenuation and volume expansion during charge and discharge, researchers use the silicon-carbon composite method. Beijing Lier invested in Lianchuang Lithium Energy to layout the silicon-carbon anode field. Lianchuang Lithium Energy is expected to start production by the end of this year and achieve significant revenue and profit scale in 2026 [12][20]. - **High-nickel cathode**: With the development of the solid-state battery industry, the application of high-nickel and ultra-high-nickel materials is being accelerated, and the demand for high-nickel ternary materials will continue to grow. Many domestic material enterprises are actively deploying high-nickel materials, and some leading manufacturers have achieved shipments of high-nickel ternary products to solid-state battery enterprises. Some material manufacturers are also increasing nickel production capacity and targeting Indonesia [21]. - **Punan Co., Ltd.**: The company's efficient precipitant products have been recognized by many wet metallurgy customers and achieved batch supply. The increasing demand for high-nickel ternary cathode materials in solid-state batteries is expected to drive the demand for active magnesium oxide, a precipitant used in upstream wet nickel extraction, and the company's related business may benefit [23]. 3.2. Earnings Forecast and Valuation of Main Covered Companies No specific content provided in the text, only the table title is mentioned. 3.3. Weekly Market Review - **Building and building materials industry**: The text provides the weekly and year-to-date rise and fall rankings of the building and building materials industries, as well as the weekly market review of infrastructure public REITs, including closing prices, 52 - week highs and lows, and various rise and fall data [37][38][39]. 3.4. Aggregate Data Tracking - **Real estate data**: It includes cumulative year-on-year data of real estate new construction, construction, completion, and sales areas, land transaction data, real estate transaction data, social financing data, infrastructure investment growth rate, and new contract signing situations of eight major construction central enterprises [42][51][60]. - **Special bond issuance**: It shows the monthly and cumulative issuance amounts of new special bonds and replacement special bonds [89]. 3.5. High-frequency Data Tracking - **Cement data**: It includes the national PO42.5 cement average price, East China regional cement price trend, cement coal price difference index, cement capacity utilization rate, and cement production monthly year-on-year growth rate [100][104][107]. - **Float glass data**: It includes glass spot price, glass futures price, glass inventory, and glass daily melting volume [106][109][114]. - **Photovoltaic glass data**: It includes 2mm photovoltaic glass price, photovoltaic glass inventory, and soda ash price [113][115][118]. - **Glass fiber data**: It includes the prices of various types of glass fiber yarns and glass fiber inventory [120][122][133]. - **Carbon fiber data**: It includes carbon fiber average price, carbon fiber raw silk price, carbon fiber inventory, carbon fiber production, carbon fiber start - up rate, and carbon fiber gross profit margin [128][130][142]. - **Magnesia and alumina prices**: It includes the ex - factory tax - included price of large crystalline fused magnesia and alumina price [144][145][147]. - **Upstream raw material prices**: It includes the prices of asphalt, waste paper, PVC, and HDPE [150][152][154]. - **Physical work volume data**: It includes high - machine rental rate, excavator working hours, and asphalt average start - up rate [156][157][163].

Investment Rating - The report gives Qualcomm an "Overweight" rating for the first time [5][15]. Core Views - Qualcomm is a global leader in wireless communication technology, with mobile chips as its core business. The company is expected to maintain its leading position in high-end smartphone SoC and smart cockpit SoC markets, while also expanding its presence in AI smart glasses and data center CPU businesses, which may become a second growth curve in the long term [5][15]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Qualcomm was founded in 1985 and went public in 1991. The company focuses on mobile, IoT, and automotive sectors, with mobile business accounting for 63.81% of total revenue in FY2024, generating $24.863 billion [1][38]. Technology and Patent Strategy - Qualcomm builds a strong patent moat through a combination of self-research and acquisitions, holding approximately 5,600 families of 5G SEP patents, ranking second globally. The technology licensing business is the second-largest source of revenue and profit, maintaining a pre-tax profit margin of over 60% for nearly a decade [2][43]. Business Growth Opportunities - The smartphone market is showing weak recovery, but IoT and automotive businesses are expected to create a second growth curve. In IoT, Qualcomm is enhancing its presence in PC and smart glasses markets, with a forecasted revenue growth of 20% in FY2025. In automotive, the company is expanding its share in smart cockpit and advanced driving chips, with projected revenue growth of 34% in FY2025 [3][12]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts Qualcomm's net profits for FY2025-2027 to be $10.819 billion, $11.506 billion, and $12.477 billion, respectively, with growth rates of 6.7%, 6.3%, and 8%. The current price corresponds to a PE of 16X, 15X, and 14X for FY2025-2027, which is below the average PE of comparable companies [5][6][14]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Qualcomm is positioned as a leader in the smartphone SoC market, holding a 59% market share in the high-end Android smartphone chip market in 2024. However, the company faces challenges from Apple's self-developed baseband chips, which are expected to significantly reduce Qualcomm's revenue from Apple by 2027 [1][4][11].

2025年7月16日 总量研究 关税影响逐步显性化 -2025 年 6 月美国 CPI 数据点评 要点 作者 事件: 分析师:高瑞东 1) 6 月美国 CPI 同比+2.7%, 前值+2.4%,市场预期+2.7%; 2) 季调后 CPI 环比 执业证书编号:S0930520120007 +0.3%,前值+0.1%，市场预期+0.3%; 3）核心 CPI 同比+2.9%,前值+2.8%,市 010-56513108 分析师:刘星辰 执业证书编号: S0930522030001 021-52523880 liuxc@ebscn.com 相关研报 场预期+3.0%;4) 季调后核心 CPI 环比+0.2%,前值+0.1%,市场预期+0.3%。 美国通胀继续回落,关税冲击尚待显现 -- 2025 年 4 月美国 CPI 数据点评 (2025-05-14) 高关税如何影响美国通胀? -- 2025年3月 美国 CPI 数据点评 (2025-04-11) 美国通胀超预期回落,未来降息节奏如何? -- 2025 年 2 月美国 CPI 数据点评 (2025-03-13) 美国 CPI 数据点评 (2025-02-13) 美 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [6]. Core Views - The company plans to acquire a 30% stake in Rainbow Optoelectronics, which will further solidify its leading position in the panel industry and enhance its competitive advantages [1]. - The repurchase of minority shareholder rights in Wuhan B17 is expected to boost the parent company's performance, increasing its equity stake from 47.14% to 58.36% [2]. - The company's depreciation is projected to peak in 2025, with a subsequent decline expected to provide significant profit elasticity [3]. - The report adjusts the net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to CNY 8.784 billion and CNY 12.471 billion, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 7% and 8% [3]. Summary by Sections Acquisition and Strategic Moves - The company intends to acquire a 30% stake in Rainbow Optoelectronics for approximately CNY 4.849 billion, which aligns with its strategic development goals and aims to enhance its industry influence [1]. Performance and Financial Projections - The repurchase of shares in Wuhan B17 is anticipated to positively impact the company's operational performance, with a focus on high-generation lines becoming a key growth driver [2]. - The company expects its depreciation to peak in 2025, with a gradual decline thereafter, which is expected to improve profitability [3]. - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are CNY 8.784 billion and CNY 12.471 billion, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at CNY 14.486 billion [3]. Financial Metrics - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from CNY 174.543 billion in 2023 to CNY 273.063 billion in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9.22% [5]. - The net profit is expected to recover significantly from CNY 2.547 billion in 2023 to CNY 14.486 billion in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [5]. - The report indicates a PE ratio decreasing from 60 in 2023 to 10 in 2027, suggesting an improving valuation as profitability increases [12].