2025 年 12 月 28 日 公司研究 签署 4.24 亿美元哈萨克斯坦管道项目 EPC 合同，积极拓展海外市场 ——中油工程（600339.SH）公告点评 要点 事件：公司发布《关于子公司中标项目签署合同的公告》，公司子公司管道局工 程公司与中信建设有限责任公司组成的联合体，与哈萨克斯坦国家石油天然气化 工公司（KMG PetroChem）就哈萨克斯坦阿特劳州单走廊乙烷丙烷干线管道 EPC 项目签署 EPC 承包合同，合同金额 4.24 亿美元。 点评： 项目合同额 4.24 亿美元，有利于中亚地区市场拓展。哈萨克斯坦乙烷丙烷管道 项目为 EPC 总承包模式，主要工作范围包括建设管径 406.4mm、长度 209.4 公 里和管径 323.8mm、长度 208.1 公里的乙烷干线管道以及管径 219.1mm、长 度 5.5 公里的丙烷连接管线，项目合同额 4.24 亿美元。业主方 KMG PetroChem 是哈萨克斯坦国家石油天然气公司（KazMunayGas）全资子公司。合同签署体 现了哈国油对公司项目总承包建设能力的认可，有利于公司在中亚地区油气储运 工程业务市场的进一步巩固和拓展。 市场开拓有序 ...

2025 年 12 月 28 日 远期固态电池等提供锂新的动能需求。固态电池因其高能量密度和安全性被视为 下一代技术方向。据鑫椤资讯预测：2025年固态电池出货量约5.1Gwh，2030 年达到近80GWh，2025-2030年复合增速64%；2035年达456GWh，2025-2035 年复合增速53%。其中半固态电池2024年已经进入量产出货，全固态电池目前 主要在实验室验证阶段，预计2027年开始Gwh出货。国内较多企业开始积极布 局固态电池。根据雅保公告，全固态电池度电耗锂量有望达到近2kg/KWh,较现 有锂电体系翻倍，有望进一步拉动锂需求量。 投资建议：建议关注矿端增量较大的天华新能、盛新锂能、大中矿业、国城矿业、 藏格矿业、盐湖股份、雅化集团、赣锋锂业、天齐锂业等。 风险提示：下游需求不及预期；新国内外政策以及地缘政治不确定因素等。 行业研究 正极减产挺价有望助力锂价传导，储能需求预期提振改善供需格局 ——碳酸锂行业动态点评 要点 事件： 2025 年 12 月 25 日，湖南裕能、德方纳米、万润新能相继发布部分产线 减产检修公告：其中湖南裕能预计检修时间 1 个月，减少正极材料产品 1.5-3 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the positive outlook for strategic metals investment opportunities due to favorable supply-demand dynamics and resource nationalism [3][5][11]. Market Review: Strategic Metals Lead Nonferrous - From the beginning of the year until December 18, 2025, the nonferrous metals sector has risen by 78.53%, ranking second among all industries. Strategic metals have shown significant gains, with tungsten up 136.7%, cobalt up 69.1%, and rare earth permanent magnets up 56.7% [7]. Cobalt: Supply Tightening from Congo (DRC) - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has implemented an export quota system for cobalt, leading to a projected supply-demand imbalance of -7.5/-3.3/-3.3 million tons for 2025-2027. The DRC's export ban and subsequent quota system are expected to keep cobalt prices elevated [3][14][16]. Rare Earths: Supply Expectations Tightening - The rare earth sector is experiencing tightening supply due to strategic export controls and a lack of public quota announcements. The price of light rare earths has seen fluctuations, with a peak price of 64.30 million yuan/ton for praseodymium and neodymium oxides in August 2025, followed by a decline [22][26][46]. Tungsten: Continued Supply-Demand Gap - The tungsten market is facing a supply squeeze due to mining restrictions and declining ore grades. Demand remains stable, supported by applications in military and photovoltaic sectors, suggesting that tungsten prices are likely to rise [3][5]. Tin: Supply Tightness and AI Demand Growth - The resumption of tin production in Myanmar is slow, with significant delays expected. However, the rapid development of AI is emerging as a new growth driver for tin demand [3][5]. Antimony: Export Recovery Expected - The suspension of export restrictions to the U.S. is anticipated to boost China's antimony exports, which currently account for 36% of its production. The lifting of these restrictions is expected to enhance export volumes significantly [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies benefiting from the tightening supply of strategic metals, including Huayou Cobalt, China Rare Earth, and Xiamen Tungsten. Specific recommendations include companies with significant cobalt production quotas in the DRC and those involved in rare earth processing [5][3].

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [4][6]. Core Insights - The Gansu liquor market is approaching a scale of nearly 100 billion yuan, with local brands holding a significant market share. The consumption upgrade is ongoing, with the mainstream price point for general liquor around 100 yuan and business banquets primarily at 150-200 yuan. Gansu's economic development, driven by investment attraction, supports this upgrade [1][21]. - Jinwei Liquor, located in the "Jiangnan of Longshan," has a long-standing brand history and has initiated a "second entrepreneurship" since 2018. The company aims for long-term growth through stable management and employee profit-sharing plans [2][49]. - The company is optimizing its product structure, with a significant increase in the revenue share of products priced above 100 yuan, expected to reach 71% by 2024. The company is also expanding its market presence in surrounding provinces while maintaining a strong foothold in Gansu [3][65]. Summary by Sections Gansu Liquor Market - The Gansu liquor market is estimated to be around 100 billion yuan, with local brands dominating the market. The consumption upgrade is evident as the mainstream price point is transitioning from around 100 yuan to 200 yuan [1][21]. - Local liquor brands account for over 70% of the market share, with Jinwei holding approximately 20% and continuing to increase its share [1][38]. Jinwei Liquor Overview - Jinwei Liquor has a rich history and is recognized as a leading brand in Gansu. The company has undergone significant changes since its establishment, including a successful listing in 2016 and a shift in control back to the original parent group in 2022 [2][49]. - The management team is experienced and stable, with a focus on long-term performance and employee engagement through profit-sharing mechanisms [2][57]. Product and Market Strategy - The company is focusing on upgrading its product structure, with a notable increase in high-end product offerings. The revenue from products priced above 100 yuan is projected to grow significantly [3][65]. - Jinwei is pursuing a national expansion strategy while deepening its presence in Gansu, particularly in the eastern and central regions where it has established strong brand recognition [3][65]. Financial Projections and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 30.2 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11% since its listing. The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 3.76 billion, 4.09 billion, and 4.43 billion yuan, respectively [4][6]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 28, 25, and 23 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to industry peers [4][6].

2025 年 12 月 27 日 总量研究 盈利承压，分化加剧 ——2025 年 11 月工业企业盈利数据点评 作者 分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 分析师：刘星辰 执业证书编号：S0930522030001 021-52523880 liuxc@ebscn.com 相关研报 10 月盈利增速再次转负，需要担心吗？—— 2025 年 10 月工业企业盈利数据点评 （2025-11-27） 利润率改善驱动企业利润加速修复——2025 年9月工业企业盈利数据点评（2025-10-27） 8 月工业企业利润缘何高增？——2025 年 8 月工业企业盈利数据点评（2025-09-27） 工业企业盈利增速将继续改善——2024 年 11 月工业企业盈利数据点评（2024-12-27） 工业企业盈利或迎来曙光——2024 年 10 月 工业企业盈利数据点评（2024-11-27） "反内卷"推动制造业盈利好转——2025 年 7 月工业企业盈利数据点评（2025-08-27） 企业利润继续承压，亟待"反内卷"政策提 振——202 ...

2025 年 12 月 27 日 总量研究 二级市场价格有所修复，周度连续下跌行情暂缓 ——REITs 周度观察（20251222-20251226） 要点 1、 二级市场 2025 年 12 月 22 日-2025 年 12 月 26 日（以下简称"本周"），我国已上市公 募 REITs 二级市场价格整体波浪式修复，结束了连续 5 周的下跌行情：中证 REITs （收盘）和中证 REITs 全收益指数分别收于 783.86 和 1014.8，本周回报率分别 为 1.39%和 1.56%。与其他主流大类资产相比，回报率由高至低排序分别为： 黄金>原油>A 股>可转债>REITs>美股>纯债。 从项目属性来看，本周产权类和特许经营权类 REITs 的二级市场价格均有所上 涨，其中，产权类 REITs 回报率为 2.22%，特许经营权类 REITs 回报率为 1.19%。 从底层资产类型来看，本周保障房类 REITs 涨幅最大。本周回报率排名前三的底 层资产类型分别为保障房类、仓储物流类和园区类。 从单只 REIT 层面来看，有 67 只 REITs 上涨，有 11 只 REITs 下跌。涨跌幅方面， 涨幅排名前 ...

2025 年 12 月 27 日 总量研究 市场大市值风格占优，机构调研组合超额明显 ——量化组合跟踪周报 20251227 要点 量化市场跟踪 大类因子表现：本周（2025.12.22-2025.12.26，下同），beta 因子、规模因子、 非线性市值因子获得正收益（1.31%、0.62%和 0.58%），杠杆因子获得负收益 （-0.13%），市场大市值风格占优。 单因子表现：沪深 300 股票池中，本周表现较好的因子有早盘收益因子(2.16%)、 单季度净利润同比增长率(1.75%)、单季度 ROA 同比(1.68%),表现较差的因子有 大单净流入(-1.71%)、市净率因子(-1.83%)、下行波动率占比(-2.05%)。 中证 500 股票池中，本周表现较好的因子有单季度营业利润同比增长率(1.16%)、 单季度净利润同比增长率(1.11%)、标准化预期外盈利(1.08%),表现较差的因子 有市盈率因子(-2.74%)、总资产毛利率 TTM(-2.92%)、市净率因子(-2.95%)。 流动性 1500 股票池中，本周表现较好的因子有 5 日反转(3.33%)、单季度净利 润同比增长率(1.58%) ...

2025 年 12 月 27 日 总量研究 特朗普如何激活美国地产：现实与挑战 ——解构美国系列第十六篇 要点 核心观点： 为什么我们认为特朗普房改将难以提振美国房地产？在 2024 至 2025 年美联储 大幅降息背景下，由于房贷利率降幅有限，美国房地产市场并未迎来复苏周期， 仍呈现"供需两弱"状态。展望看，随着 2026 年美国中期选举临近，"特朗普 房改"呼之欲出，我们推测大致会沿着降低房贷成本、激活供给市场、降息三条 路径，但考虑到大幅降息难以有效传导至房贷利率，政策端亦受立法、司法等约 束，叠加关税风险溢价和建设周期滞后，房地产供需结构或难以在短期逆转，基 准判断是 2026 年美国房地产维持弱复苏状态。若想要美国地产周期出现明显复 苏，我们测算 5%左右的房贷利率或是美国地产周期的启动指标，若房贷利率降 至合意区间，对应的 10 年期美债利率或在 3.2%-3.3%左右。 在 2024 至 2025 年美联储大幅降息背景下，美国房地产市场并未迎来复苏周期， 仍呈现"供需两弱"状态。 需求端方面，受高房价、高房贷利率及可负担性危机影响，居民购房和按揭需求 持续走低，2025 年新房和成屋销售量低于 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - From December 22 to December 26, 2025, the issuance volume of credit bonds increased month - on - month, and the credit spreads of various industries showed mixed trends [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Primary Market 3.1.1 Issuance Statistics - During the week from December 22 to December 26, 2025, 267 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 427.702 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 15.42%. Among them, 117 industrial bonds were issued, with a scale of 219.258 billion yuan (a 34.26% month - on - month increase, accounting for 51.26% of the total); 110 urban investment bonds were issued, with a scale of 71.364 billion yuan (an 18.87% month - on - month decrease, accounting for 16.69% of the total); 40 financial bonds were issued, with a scale of 137.08 billion yuan (a 14.92% month - on - month increase, accounting for 32.05% of the total) [1][11] - The average issuance term of credit bonds this week was 2.74 years. The average issuance term of industrial bonds was 2.36 years, urban investment bonds was 3.25 years, and financial bonds was 2.35 years [1][14] - The average issuance coupon rate of credit bonds this week was 2.26%. The average issuance coupon rate of industrial bonds was 2.12%, urban investment bonds was 2.41%, and financial bonds was 2.23% [2][19] 3.1.2 Cancellation of Issuance Statistics - Five credit bonds were cancelled for issuance this week [2][23] 3.2 Secondary Market 3.2.1 Credit Spread Tracking - By industry, in the Shenwan primary industries, the largest upward movement of the AAA - rated industry credit spread was in the pharmaceutical and biological industry (up 5.1BP), and the largest downward movement was in the real estate industry (down 1.3BP); the largest upward movement of the AA + - rated industry credit spread was in the household appliances industry (up 6.4BP), and the largest downward movement was in the textile and clothing industry (down 9.8BP); the largest upward movement of the AA - rated industry credit spread was in the building materials industry (up 11BP), and the largest downward movement was in the commercial trade industry (down 1BP) [3] - By region for urban investment bonds, this week, the largest upward movement of the AAA - rated credit spread was in Gansu (up 8.7BP), and the largest downward movement was in Jilin (down 2.9BP); the largest upward movement of the AA + - rated credit spread was in Liaoning (up 6.7BP), and the largest downward movement was in Fujian (down 3.2BP); the largest upward movement of the AA - rated credit spread was in Jiangxi (up 4.5BP), and the largest downward movement was in Anhui (down 3.3BP) [3] 3.2.2 Trading Volume Statistics - The total trading volume of credit bonds was 1.782747 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 28.47%. The top three in terms of trading volume were commercial bank bonds, corporate bonds, and medium - term notes. Specifically, the trading volume of commercial bank bonds was 630.894 billion yuan (a 38.88% month - on - month increase, accounting for 35.39% of the total); the trading volume of corporate bonds was 521.309 billion yuan (a 15.93% month - on - month increase, accounting for 29.24% of the total); the trading volume of medium - term notes was 347.636 billion yuan (a 40.63% month - on - month increase, accounting for 19.50% of the total) [4][28] 3.2.3 Actively Traded Bonds This Week - According to DM client data, the top 20 urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds in terms of trading volume this week are provided for investors' reference [30]

2025 年 12 月 27 日 总量研究 本周继续上涨 ——可转债周报（2025 年 12 月 22 日至 2025 年 12 月 26 日） 要点 1、市场行情 本周（2025 年 12 月 22 日至 2025 年 12 月 26 日，共 5 个交易日）中证转债指 数涨跌幅为+1.64%（上周涨跌幅为+0.48%），中证全指变动为+2.78%（上周 涨跌幅为-0.18%）。2025 年以来中证转债涨跌幅为+18.98%，中证全指涨跌幅 为+25.00%。 分评级来看，债项评级高评级券（评级为 AAA）、中高评级券（评级为 AA+）、 中评级券（评级为 AA）、中低评级券（评级为 AA-）和低评级券（评级为 AA- 及以下）本周涨跌幅分别为+0.61%、+1.36%、+2.52%、+1.69%和+1.98%， 中评级券涨幅最高。 分转债规模看，大规模转债（债券余额大于 20 亿元）、中大规模转债（余额在 15 至 20 亿元之间）、中规模转债（余额在 10 至 15 亿元之间）、中小规模转 债（余额在 5 至 10 亿元之间）、小规模转债（余额小于 5 亿元）本周涨跌幅分 别为+1.06%、+0.62%、 ...