2025 年 9 月 18 日 公司研究 水泥业务量价承压，化工板块盈利有待改善 ——青松建化（600425.SH）跟踪点评报告 要点 事件：青松建化发布 2025 年中报。25H1，公司实现收入/归母净利润/扣非净利 润 17.7/1.1/1.0 亿元，同比-14%/-49%/-43%。25Q2，公司实现收入/归母净利 润/扣非净利润 13/1.7/1.6 亿元，同比分别-15%/-28%/-18%。 点评： 水泥业务：量价齐跌，毛利率下降。 25H1，公司水泥业务实现收入 12.4 亿元，毛利润 3.5 亿元，毛利率 28.5%。根 据公司中报信息，25H1 公司水泥主业销量下滑，水泥售价较上年同期有所降低， 主营业务毛利率下降。25H1，新疆区域水泥产量 0.19 亿吨，同比+5%；参考 2023-2024 年，新疆区域水泥产量增速分别为+25%、-5%，公司水泥销量增速 分别为+36%、+1%，均高于区域水泥产量增速。价格方面，25H1，新疆的南疆 区域各主要城市水泥价格相对平稳，同比大致持平，阿克苏、喀什等地同比略高 于上年同期，25Q3 延续平稳走势。 行业层面，2025 年新疆区域重点工业行业能 ...

2025 年 9 月 18 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【宏观】为什么 8 月美国消费出现反弹？——2025 年 8 月美国零售数据点评 随着特朗普贸易谈判推进，美国关税单边大幅上涨的风险已经收敛，关税对消费者信 心冲击最大的阶段已经度过，美国消费者信心指数已较二季度的低点回暖，8 月零售 数据的企稳在"意料之中"。考虑到消费占美国 GDP 近七成，消费企稳意味着美国 经济难以失速，美国经济"最危险"的时间或已过去,本轮降息周期更偏向"预防式" 降息。 | | A 股市场 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘 | 涨跌% | | 上证综指 | 3876.34 | 0.37 | | 沪深 300 | 4551.02 | 0.61 | | 深证成指 | 13215.46 | 1.16 | | 中小板指 | 8042.44 | 0.99 | | 创业板指 | 3147.35 | 1.95 | | | 股指期货 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘 | 涨跌% | | IF2509 | 4553.20 | 0.80 | | IF2510 | 4541. ...

加拿大料减息 0.25 厘 加元偏弱 ---- 2025 年 9 月 17 日大公報 https://www.takungpao.com/finance/236135/2025/0917/1122877.html 美国通胀增长符合经济学家预期。美国上周公布8月消费者物价指数(CPI)按年升2. 9%, 期内, 核心通胀则按年升3.1%, 两者均符合市场预期。 事实上，今个星期环球市场将迎来超级议息周，加拿大央行、美联储、英伦银行及日本央 行将先后举行议息会议。现时市场预计加拿大央行及美联储将减息0.25厘，唯早前有大行预计 美联储不排除减息半厘。英伦银行及日本央行料将维持利率不变。 加拿大央行7月议息会议宣布将利率维持在2.75厘水平不变，结果符合市场预期，亦是该 行连续第4次按兵不动，而7月议息会议纪录显示，官员曾讨论过减息选项，但最终决定维持利 率不变。彭博利率期货最新显示，交易员预计加拿大央行今个月将减息0.25厘，相信与国内姜 缩的经济及就业环境转差有关。加拿大第二季度经济增长低于市场预期，第二季国内生产总值 (GDP) 出现近两年来首次萎缩,按年下挫1.6%,逊于市场预期的0.6%跌幅,为新冠疫情以 ...

Retail Data Overview - In August 2025, U.S. retail sales increased by 0.6% month-on-month, surpassing the expected 0.2% and revised from a previous value of 0.5%[2] - Core retail sales (excluding automobiles and gasoline) rose by 0.7%, exceeding the forecast of 0.4% and revised from 0.3%[2] Market Reaction - Following the retail data release, the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq indices experienced slight declines of -0.27%, -0.13%, and -0.07% respectively[3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 1 basis point to 4.04%, while the 2-year yield decreased by 3 basis points to 3.51%[3] Economic Insights - The stabilization in consumer spending indicates that the most critical phase of consumer confidence disruption due to tariffs has passed, with the consumer confidence index rising to 58.2 in August from a low of 52.2 in Q2[4][9] - Consumer spending accounts for nearly 70% of U.S. GDP, suggesting that a stable consumption environment reduces the likelihood of an economic downturn[4][8] Consumption Trends - Non-durable goods, such as online retail (+2.0%), sports and hobbies (+0.8%), and clothing (+1.0%), showed strong performance, while durable goods like automobiles (+0.5%) and furniture (-0.3%) experienced a slowdown[6][11] - Service consumption, particularly in restaurants and bars, increased by 0.7%, indicating resilience in the service sector[12] Interest Rate Outlook - The current economic conditions suggest a "preventive" approach to interest rate cuts, with expectations for a 25 basis point reduction in September 2025 being the baseline scenario[10][14] - Market expectations indicate a 96.0% probability of a rate cut in September, with further cuts anticipated in October (74.8%) and December (69.8%)[14][23]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the continuous expansion of the public REITs market in the infrastructure sector, driven by the National Development and Reform Commission's notification to enhance the application process for infrastructure REITs [2] - The report highlights the significant growth in steel structure sales for Jinggong Steel Structure, with a year-on-year increase of 47% in 25H1, despite a challenging market environment [3] - The report notes the revenue growth potential for Tuobang Co., with a revised net profit forecast for 2025 and 2026, reflecting a decrease of 16% and 15% respectively, but maintains a positive long-term growth outlook [3] Industry Research - The infrastructure REITs market is expected to see accelerated expansion, particularly in the fundraising aspect, suggesting a focus on leading companies with substantial operational assets and strong fundraising intentions [2] - The report indicates that the public REITs market is likely to benefit from the government's push for a more streamlined application process, which could lead to increased market activity [2] Company Research - Jinggong Steel Structure's overseas new contract value nearly doubled year-on-year in 25H1, showcasing the company's resilience and improved operational quality, with a notable enhancement in cash flow metrics [3] - Tuobang Co. faces challenges in its digital energy business due to lower-than-expected downstream demand and competitive pressures affecting profit margins, leading to a downward revision in profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [3]

2025 年 9 月 16 日 行业研究 智平方达成 1000 台具身智能机器人战略合作，工程机械需求持续复苏 ——机械行业周报 2025 年第 37 周（2025.9.8-2025.9.14） 机械行业 买入（维持） 执业证书编号：S0930520080005 0755-23915357 huangshuaibin@ebscn.com 作者 分析师：黄帅斌 分析师：陈佳宁 执业证书编号：S0930512120001 021-52523851 chenjianing@ebscn.com 分析师：汲萌 执业证书编号：S0930524010002 021-52523859 jimeng@ebscn.com 分析师：李佳琦 执业证书编号：S0930524070006 021-52523836 lijiaqi@ebscn.com 分析师：庄晓波 执业证书编号：S0930524070018 0755-25310400 zhuangxiaobo@ebscn.com 分析师：夏天宇 执业证书编号：S0930525070006 021-52523805 xiatianyu@ebscn.com 行业与沪深 300 指数对比图 ...

加力扩容扩维扩募，市场规模持续扩张可期 ——《关于进一步做好基础设施领域不动产投资信托基金（REITs）常态化申报推荐工作的通知》的点评 分析师：孙伟风 执业证书编号：S0930516110003 分析师：吴钰洁 执业证书编号：S0930523100001 2025年9月16日 证券研究报告 核心观点 进一步完善常态化申报机制，加力推进公募REITs扩容扩维。2025年9月12日，国家发改委发布《关于进一步做好基础设施领域不动产投资信托基金（REITs）常 态化申报推荐工作的通知》发改办投资〔2025〕782号（以下简称"782号文"），在《关于全面推动基础设施领域不动产投资信托基金（REITs）项目常态化发 行的通知》发布一年后，再次发布推进公募REITs常态化申报发行类文件，要求高度重视基础设施REITs申报工作，进一步完善常态化申报机制，加力推进公募 REITs市场扩容扩维。 25年以来项目上市节奏与去年同期差异不大，但需加快项目储备。截至25年9月12日，共有74只公募REITs首发上市，6只扩募上市，已有3只产品获沪深交易所 通过，13只产品获沪深交易所受理，1只产品已申报至上交所。25年以来获受理 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future investment returns [4][6]. Core Insights - The company, Topband Co., Ltd. (002139.SZ), is a leading global provider of intelligent control solutions, leveraging a comprehensive technology ecosystem that includes hardware development and cloud services [1]. - The company has shown continuous revenue growth, with a projected revenue of 10.501 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.78% [5]. - The net profit for 2024 is expected to reach 671 million yuan, reflecting a significant growth of 30.25% compared to the previous year [5]. Revenue and Profitability - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 5.502 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 9.70%, while the net profit was 330 million yuan, a decrease of 15.11% [1][4]. - The revenue from the smart automotive business in the first half of 2025 reached 260 million yuan, showing a robust growth of 86.03% [2]. - The robotics segment also experienced growth, with sales revenue of 277 million yuan in the first half of 2025, up 22.72% year-on-year [3]. Financial Forecasts - The financial projections indicate a steady increase in revenue and net profit over the next few years, with expected revenues of 11.768 billion yuan in 2025 and 13.725 billion yuan in 2026 [5][9]. - The net profit is forecasted to grow to 776 million yuan in 2025 and 945 million yuan in 2026, with corresponding growth rates of 15.62% and 21.69% respectively [5][9]. Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 36 in 2023 to 16 by 2027, indicating an improving valuation as earnings grow [11][12]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise from 8.2% in 2023 to 12.6% in 2027, reflecting enhanced profitability [11]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has established a global production base network across Asia, Europe, and America, enhancing its supply chain efficiency [1]. - Topband is focusing on innovation in the fields of digital energy, smart automotive, and robotics, positioning itself as a leader in these sectors [1][2][3].

2025 年 9 月 16 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【宏观】深化财税体制改革：赋能"十五五"高质量发展的制度基石——《财政洞悉》 系列第九篇 核心观点："十五五"时期的财税体制改革，既是破解当前财政紧约束的必由之路， 更是推进国家治理现代化的长远之策。通过预算制度革新释放资源潜力、税制优化调 节分配格局、央地关系重构激发治理活力、债务全口径管理扩大财政效能，这一系列 改革将为中国式现代化注入强劲动能。风险提示：政策落地不及预期；地方投资动能 不足；市场因突发事件产生意外波动。 【宏观】经济不确定性加大，逆周期政策有望加码——2025 年 8 月经济数据点评 8 月，生产、投资、消费同比增速皆下行，经济不确定性进一步加大。一方面，二季 度以来经济数据的回落，受到了异常高温、价格走低等因素拖累；但另一方面，"以 旧换新"相关品类销售同比增速在资金空窗期快速回落、地产销售同比跌幅扩大、制 造业投资整体低迷，也指向相关市场主体投资决策更趋谨慎，经济转型过程中新旧动 能接续不畅的问题。 【债券】固定资产投资累计同比增速延续回落态势——2025 年 8 月经济数据点评兼 债市观点 8 月工业生产放缓 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Insights - The company has shown a significant increase in average sales price while maintaining stable asset operations. The sales structure is focused on core cities, leading to a notable rise in sales price per square meter [2][3]. - The company achieved a contract sales amount of 136.8 billion yuan from January to August 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 12.0%, with a sales area of 5.12 million square meters, down 23.3% year-on-year [1][4]. - The asset operation segment has demonstrated robust growth, contributing significantly to performance and stable cash flow. The revenue from the asset operation segment reached 12.11 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.5% [3]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company recorded a contracted sales amount of 110.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.5% year-on-year, with a sales area of 4.12 million square meters, down 20.9% year-on-year. The average sales price was 26,800 yuan per square meter, up 11.9% year-on-year [2][4]. Land Acquisition - The company adhered to a "quantity in, quantity out" principle in land acquisition, focusing on first and second-tier cities. In the first half of 2025, the company invested 32.28 billion yuan in land, adding 1.48 million square meters to its land reserves, which now total 48.95 million square meters [2][3]. Asset Operations - As of June 30, 2025, the total building area of shopping centers was 11.85 million square meters, with 94 centers in operation. The retail sales reached 110.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.2%, with an operating profit margin of 65.9%, setting a new historical high [3]. Financial Health - The company maintained a cash reserve of 120.24 billion yuan as of June 2025, with a net interest-bearing debt ratio of 39.2%. The weighted average financing cost decreased by 32 basis points from the end of 2024 to 2.79%, maintaining the lowest level in the industry [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company's net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised down to 24.74 billion yuan, 25.27 billion yuan, and 25.53 billion yuan, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 8.5, 8.3, and 8.3 times for 2025-2027 [4][10].