2025 年 9 月 14 日 行业研究 社融遇拐点，货币见活化 ——2025 年 8 月份金融数据点评 银行业 买入（维持） 作者 分析师：王一峰 执业证书编号：S0930519050002 010-57378038 wangyf@ebscn.com 分析师：赵晨阳 执业证书编号：S0930524070005 010-57378030 zhaochenyang@ebscn.com 行业与沪深 300 指数对比图 资料来源：Wind 相关研报 信贷扩张季节性回落，存款资金入市节奏提速 —— 2025 年 7 月份金融数据点评 信用活动季节性走强——2025 年 6 月份金融数据 点评 信用扩张走向量价平衡——2025 年 5 月份金融数 据点评 如何看待 4 月社融与信贷"大劈叉"？——2025 年 4 月份金融数据点评 贷款投放超预期，关注需求修复持续性——2025 年 3 月份金融数据点评 年末贷款增长拖累因素增多——2024 年 11 月份金 融数据点评 要点 事件： 2025 年 9 月 12 日，央行公布了 8 月金融统计数据，数据显示： （3）新增人民币贷款 5900 亿，同比少增 3100 亿， ...

2025 年 9 月 14 日 行业研究 消费电子旺季来临，关注国产 OLED 材料放量 ——基础化工行业周报（20250908-20250912） 要点 iPhone 17 系列发布，2025H2 消费电子销售旺季开启。北京时间 9 月 10 日 凌晨，苹果公司召开 2025 年秋季新品发布会，正式推出 iPhone17、 iPhoneAir、iPhone17Pro 与 iPhone17ProMax 四款机型，全系配备 6.3- 6.9 英寸 OLED 全面屏，支持 ProMotion 自适应刷新率技术，显示效果全面 升级。此前，华为 Mate XTs 非凡大师机型已于 9 月 4 日亮相，小米等主流 厂商也将在后续陆续发布旗舰新品，标志着 2025 年下半年消费电子市场全 面进入新品集中发布期，有望激发换机需求，拉动全球智能手机出货回暖。 柔性 OLED 渗透率稳步提升，国产 OLED 面板生产商市场份额进一步增长。 2025 年上半年，尽管全球宏观经济仍存不确定性，智能手机显示面板市场总 体实现温和增长。群智咨询数据显示，2025H1 全球智能手机面板出货量约 10.9 亿片（Open Cell 口径） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In August 2025, there was a month - on - month double increase in credit and social financing. The new RMB loans were 0.59 trillion yuan, 0.64 trillion yuan more than the previous month, and the increment of social financing scale was 2.57 trillion yuan, 1.44 trillion yuan more than the previous month. The year - on - year growth rate of M2 balance at the end of August 2025 remained at 8.8%, a high in the past about 20 months [1]. - In the long run, the credit growth rate is likely to decline, related to China's economic growth rate change and the increase of the proportion of direct financing. In the medium and short term, the credit growth reading is likely to decline due to factors such as the replacement of local government implicit debts, which is beneficial to economic growth [3]. - The trend of the bill market interest rate can reflect the credit growth situation. The bill market interest rate has both capital and credit attributes. The trend of the bill market interest rate in the second half of this month may indicate that banks controlled the credit investment intensity during this period [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Credit and Social Financing Growth - In August 2025, there was a month - on - month double increase in credit and social financing, and the year - on - year growth rate of M2 balance remained at a high level, marking a successful end to the recent credit control work [1]. - The "double increase" is largely due to the earlier issuance rhythm and increased intensity of government bonds. In the first 8 months of this year, the government bond financing in the social financing caliber was 10.28 trillion yuan, 4.64 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2]. - When analyzing the scale of funds provided by the financial system to the real economy, it is advisable to use the more comprehensive social financing scale indicator, especially at the current stage of large - scale debt resolution by local governments [2]. Credit Growth Trend - In the long run, the credit growth rate is likely to decline, related to China's economic growth rate change and the increase of the proportion of direct financing. In the medium and short term, the credit growth reading is likely to decline due to factors such as the replacement of local government implicit debts, which is beneficial to economic growth [3]. - It is recommended to focus on broader financial aggregate indicators such as social financing during this period. The replacement of implicit debts has a basically neutral direct impact on the overall social financing [3]. Relationship between Bill Market Interest Rate and Credit Growth - The bill market interest rate has both capital and credit attributes. The trend of the bill market interest rate in the second half of the month can better reflect the bank's orientation in adjusting the credit scale. The slight increase in the bill market interest rate in the second half of this month may indicate that banks controlled the credit investment intensity [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [6][4]. Core Views - The company demonstrates strong profitability and a high dividend policy, with a 2024 dividend payout ratio reaching 90.92%, corresponding to a current dividend yield of 6.06% [3][4]. - The company is recognized as a leader in the silicon iron industry, with its circular industrial chain synergy gradually becoming evident [4]. Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 11.825 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.83%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 989 million yuan, down 1.82% year-on-year [1]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw operating revenue of 6.222 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.27%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.05% [1]. - The company's silicon iron production in the first half of 2025 was 792,800 tons, an increase of 6.85% year-on-year, with a gross profit per ton of 772 yuan, up 51.93% year-on-year [2]. - The company’s caustic soda production was 363,200 tons, with a gross profit per ton of 1,669 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 47.11% [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down by 18.90% and 22.61% to 2.055 billion yuan and 2.266 billion yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 set at 2.485 billion yuan [4][5]. - The report provides a detailed financial summary, indicating a projected revenue decline in 2025, followed by a slight recovery in subsequent years [5][19]. Dividend Policy - The company has consistently maintained a high dividend policy from 2020 to 2024, with total cash dividends amounting to 16.79 billion yuan in 2024 [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5]. Core Views - The company has launched a restricted stock incentive plan for 2025, targeting 174 key management personnel with a total of 6 million shares, representing approximately 1.46% of the total share capital as of the announcement date, at a grant price of 7.29 CNY per share [1][2]. - The unlocking ratios for the restricted stock plan for the years 2025 to 2027 are set at 40%, 30%, and 30%, respectively, with specific revenue and net profit targets for each year [2]. - The company is focusing on expanding into new sectors such as oil and gas and power generation while continuing to deepen its presence in the electric grid sector [3]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 266 million CNY in 2025, 316 million CNY in 2026, and 359 million CNY in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 19.32%, 18.81%, and 13.50% [4][3]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 4.327 billion CNY in 2025 to 6.039 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 19.99% to 17.27% [4][3]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a leading player in the industrial MRO sector, leveraging its expertise in the electric grid to penetrate new strategic industries [3]. - The incentive plan is designed to retain core talent and enhance employee motivation, which is crucial for the company's long-term sustainable growth [3].

Inflation Data Summary - In August, the U.S. CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year, up from 2.7% in the previous month, aligning with market expectations[2] - The seasonally adjusted CPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month, compared to 0.2% previously, slightly exceeding the market forecast of 0.3%[2] - Core CPI remained stable at 3.1% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, consistent with the previous month[2] Inflation Drivers - The increase in CPI was primarily driven by rising prices in food, energy, and housing[3] - Food prices rose by 0.5% month-on-month, with beef prices significantly increasing by 2.7%[4] - Energy prices saw a month-on-month increase of 0.7%, recovering from a decline of 1.1% in the previous month[4] Market Expectations and Fed Policy - The current inflation trend suggests a controlled environment for further interest rate cuts, with a 25 basis point cut expected in September[3] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point cut in October have risen to 82.1%, up from 73.9% the previous day[7] - The probability of another 25 basis point cut in December is at 75.4%, increasing from 68.1%[7]

Market Overview - The current bull market is primarily driven by liquidity, with TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) expected to be the main focus in the mid-term [2] - If the market transitions to a fundamental-driven phase, advanced manufacturing will be a key area to watch, followed by real estate in the later stages [2] Industry Research Electronics - In Q2 2025, the electronics industry saw a total net profit of 136.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 34% [3] - The top three sub-industries in terms of net profit growth were AI supply chain (174.7 billion yuan, +87%), PCB (70.0 billion yuan, +68%), and NVIDIA supply chain (128.6 billion yuan, +67%) [3] Semiconductor Materials - The rapid growth in AI demand is driving the semiconductor materials market, with significant growth in sectors like photoresists and wet electronic chemicals [4] - In H1 2025, listed companies in this sector reported revenue and profit growth, indicating a positive outlook for the semiconductor materials industry [4] Company Research China National Materials Technology - In H1 2025, the company experienced rapid growth across its three main businesses: wind turbine blades, fiberglass, and lithium membranes, benefiting from high demand in the wind power sector [5] - The company is well-positioned in the specialty fabric market, with significant sales contributions expected from new projects [5] Antong Oilfield Services - In H1 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.9%, and a net profit of 170 million yuan, up 55.9% [7] - The oil service market is recovering, and the company's new business model is anticipated to create additional growth opportunities [7] XCMG Machinery - In H1 2025, the company achieved an 8.0% year-on-year revenue growth and a 16.6% increase in net profit [8] - Despite challenges in the mining machinery sector, the company’s profitability is improving, and there is significant growth potential in overseas markets [8] Zoomlion Heavy Industry - In H1 2025, the company reported revenue of 24.85 billion yuan, a 1.3% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 2.76 billion yuan, up 20.8% [9] - The company has substantial potential in emerging businesses and overseas exports, maintaining a positive growth outlook [9] Copper Peak Electronics - In H1 2025, the company achieved a net profit of 31 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 39.6% [10] - The company is a leading producer of film capacitors and polypropylene film materials, with strong growth prospects driven by demand in the renewable energy sector [10] Apple Inc. - Following the recent product launch, the market sentiment around Apple has improved, with a focus on new product shipments and AI strategy as key growth drivers [11] - The projected net profits for Apple from FY2025 to FY2027 are 110.5 billion, 115.5 billion, and 119.4 billion USD respectively [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company has shown steady revenue growth and significant improvement in profitability in the first half of 2025, with a revenue of 728 million yuan, up 13.88% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 58 million yuan, up 25.54% year-on-year [2] - The company benefits from an integrated industrial chain advantage, being one of the few companies that produce both film and capacitor products, which allows it to meet diverse customer needs [3] - The market for ultra-thin film materials in the renewable energy sector is expected to grow, driven by technological advancements and national policies, which will also boost the demand for capacitor films [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 25H1, the company achieved a revenue of 728 million yuan, with a gross margin of 26.16%, an increase of 1.63 percentage points year-on-year [2] - In 25Q2, the revenue was 363 million yuan, with a net profit of 31 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 39.60% [2] - The electronic-grade film materials segment generated 294 million yuan in revenue, up 15.47% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 30.17% [2] Market Outlook - The demand for film capacitors is expected to grow, which will drive the continuous growth of the capacitor film market [3] - The report highlights the potential for new market increments in the capacitor film industry due to the maturation of composite current collector application technologies [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report adjusts the net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 121 million yuan and 146 million yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 169 million yuan [4] - The company is positioned as a leading domestic manufacturer of film capacitors and polypropylene film materials, with a sustained growth outlook in the renewable energy sector [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has achieved revenue growth across its three main businesses, with a significant increase in special fabric production capacity [1] - In H1 2025, the company reported total revenue of 13.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1 billion yuan, up 115% [5] - The wind turbine blade business saw revenue of 5.2 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 84%, with sales volume reaching 15 GW, up 103% [6] - The fiberglass business reported a revenue of 4.35 billion yuan, a 13% increase, with a net profit of 560 million yuan, up 262% [7] - The lithium membrane business achieved revenue of 930 million yuan, a 22% increase, with sales volume growing by 60% [9] Summary by Sections Wind Power Blade Business - Revenue reached 5.2 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a net profit of 370 million yuan, reflecting a 258% increase year-on-year [6] - The company is expanding its production capacity both domestically and internationally, with new projects in Xinjiang, Shantou, and Brazil [6] Fiberglass Business - The company sold 673,000 tons of fiberglass products, generating 4.35 billion yuan in revenue, with a gross margin of 26% [7] - The company is advancing in the special fabric sector, with significant R&D and production capabilities, including low-expansion and ultra-low-loss fabrics [7][8] Lithium Membrane Business - Revenue from the lithium battery separator business was 930 million yuan, with a sales volume of 1.3 billion square meters [9] - The company has established seven production bases across China and is progressing with an overseas base in Hungary [9] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report projects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 2.05 billion yuan, 2.3 billion yuan, and 2.58 billion yuan respectively, with significant growth expected in the special fabric sector [10] - The company is expected to maintain a strong market position with new projects enhancing its revenue and profit streams [10]

Investment Rating - The electronic industry is rated as "Buy" [5] Core Insights - In Q2 2025, the electronic industry saw a significant increase in net profit, with a total of 652 companies reporting a net profit of 136.82 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 35% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 34% [11][12] - The top three sub-industries in terms of year-on-year net profit growth are AI supply chain (174.7 billion yuan, +87%), PCB (70.0 billion yuan, +68%), and Nvidia supply chain (128.6 billion yuan, +67%) [11][12] - The semiconductor-MEMS, PCB materials, digital GPU and CPU, consumer electronics metal and structural parts, and semiconductor-analog sub-industries also experienced rapid growth in net profit [13] Summary by Sections Sub-industry Performance - The top five sub-industries by net profit growth in Q2 2025 are: 1. Semiconductor-MEMS: 1.33 million yuan, +2784% 2. PCB materials: 0.65 million yuan, +1259% 3. Digital GPU and CPU: 12.02 million yuan, +736% 4. Consumer electronics metal and structural parts: 2.79 million yuan, +138% 5. Semiconductor-analog: 3.45 million yuan, +117% [13][14] Major Companies in the Industry - The top five companies in the electronic industry by net profit in Q2 2025 are: 1. Industrial Fulian: 68.83 billion yuan, +51% 2. SMIC: 9.44 billion yuan, -17% 3. Cambricon: 6.83 billion yuan, turning profitable 4. Haiguang Information: 6.96 billion yuan, +23% 5. Luxshare Precision: 36.01 billion yuan, +23% [17][18] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the following areas for investment: 1. Optical modules/DCI/CPO: Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Guangku Technology 2. Servers: Industrial Fulian 3. PCB/CCL: Shengyi Technology, Shenzhen South Circuit, Pengding Holdings 4. Upstream PCB: Xinqi Microelectronics 5. Power supplies: Magmi, Oulu Tong 6. Domestic computing power: Cambricon, Haiguang Information, Lanke Technology 7. Robotics: Lingyi Intelligent Manufacturing, Zhenyu Technology 8. Semiconductors: AISC customization: Xinyuan Technology, Aojie Technology; Silicon carbide: Sanan Optoelectronics; Analog: Chengdu Huami; Components: Fuchuang Precision; FAB: Huahong Semiconductor/Hua Hong Company (A/H), SMIC (A/H); Materials: Dinglong Co., Ltd., Tongcheng New Materials; Storage: Baiwei Storage, Zhaoyi Innovation, Beijing Junzheng [4]