Overall Research - In December, A-shares showed a general increase, with the ChiNext Index rising by 6.3% and the Sci-Tech 50 Index increasing by 1.4%. The defense, communication, and non-ferrous metal sectors performed well, while financial real estate and consumer sectors lagged behind [1][7] - The Hong Kong stock market experienced volatility in December, influenced by expectations of US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and fluctuations in US stocks. The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.2%, while the Hang Seng Technology Index dropped by 1.8% [1][10] A-share Insights - The A-share market is expected to experience a steady upward trend, supported by ongoing policy initiatives and increased capital inflows. Historically, a "spring rally" occurs almost every year in the A-share market, with 13 out of 14 years since 2012 (excluding 2022) witnessing such rallies [2][15] - The central economic work conference emphasized a "more proactive fiscal policy" and "moderately loose monetary policy," which is expected to provide a solid foundation for economic growth and capital market prosperity [2][15][16] - The report suggests focusing on growth and consumer sectors, particularly TMT and advanced manufacturing, which have historically shown greater elasticity during spring rallies. The consumer sector, currently underperforming, may attract "missed opportunity" funds [2][17][18] Hong Kong Insights - The Hong Kong market is anticipated to continue its upward trend due to domestic policy support and a weaker US dollar. Despite recent gains, overall valuations remain low, indicating high long-term investment value [3][20] - A "barbell" strategy is recommended, focusing on technology growth and high-dividend stocks. Key areas include self-sufficiency, chips, and high-end manufacturing, as well as stable dividend sectors like telecommunications and utilities [3][20] Stock Recommendations - For January 2026, the A-share stock selection includes: - Sunlord Electronics, Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, SMIC, PetroChina, Sinopec, Haier Smart Home, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Zijin Mining, and Shanghai Lingang [2][22] - The recommended Hong Kong stocks for January 2026 are: - Alibaba-W, Tencent Holdings, SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Yujian, and Goldwind Technology [2][26]

【金工】市场仍将震荡上行——金融工程市场跟踪周报 20251229 上周 A 股延续震荡上涨，主要宽基指数量能皆有修复。资金面方面，周度融资增加额 环比上期大幅增长，股票型 ETF 资金净流入 363.41 亿元，资金表现积极。从近期市 场表现来看，12 月中央经济工作会议召开之后市场交易情绪有所提振，资金面表现 持续改善，为市场进一步上行奠定基础。风格方面，短线基本面因子表现持续占优， 后续或仍将延续。中长线看好"红利+科技"配置主线。 行业研究 2025 年 12 月 30 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【债券】年末再看产业债市场——信用债动态跟踪 在剔除 Wind 和 YY 口径城投债后，产业债累计发行 7440 只，规模合计 8.60 万亿元， 涵盖 29 个申万一级行业，共计 16 个行业全年发行规模突破 1000 亿，其中公用事业、 非银金融、交通运输等行业发行规模居前。 【房地产】【光大地产】核心城市楼市成交高频跟踪 20251229(增持) 截至 2025 年 12 月 28 日， 20 城新房：累计成交 77.4 万套(-16.5%)；北京 3.9 万套 (-21%)、上海 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report conducts a comprehensive analysis of the primary and secondary markets of industrial bonds in 2025, as well as a financial analysis of different industries, aiming to provide investors with a reference for investment decisions [1][34][61] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Primary Market - As of December 26, 2025, a total of 15,700 narrow - caliber credit bonds have been issued in 2025, with a total scale of 13.91 trillion yuan. After excluding urban investment bonds, 7,440 industrial bonds have been issued, with a total scale of 8.60 trillion yuan, covering 29 Shenwan primary industries [1][10] - 16 industries have an annual issuance scale exceeding 100 billion yuan, with the top - ranked industries in terms of issuance scale being public utilities (1.95 trillion yuan/1,060 bonds), non - bank finance (1.38 trillion yuan/1,407 bonds), and transportation (1.00 trillion yuan/805 bonds) [1][13] - In terms of bond types, medium - term notes, short - term financing bills, and corporate bonds have relatively high issuance amounts, accounting for 41.3%, 34.6%, and 23.0% respectively. Among special varieties, the annual issuance scale of science and technology innovation bonds accounts for over 20%, and that of green bonds accounts for 4% [16] - The scale of industrial bonds issued by central and local state - owned enterprises accounts for over 90%, and the issuers' credit ratings are mainly concentrated at the AAA level. Geographically, Beijing has the largest issuance scale, followed by Guangdong, Shanghai, and Jiangsu [20] - In terms of issuance term, the issuance scale of industrial bonds with a term of 1 year or less is the largest, accounting for 35.7%, followed by 1 - 3 years (35.1%) and 3 - 5 years (19.8%) [28] - In terms of issuance interest rate, the proportion of industrial bonds with a coupon rate of 2% or less is the highest, reaching 57%, followed by 2% - 3% (40%), and the average annual issuance coupon rate is 2.15% [31] 2. Secondary Market 2.1 Trend Review - Since the beginning of the year, affected by policies, funds, and market preferences, the yield of credit bonds has experienced two rounds of first rising and then falling, showing an M - shaped trend, which can be divided into four stages [34] - From the beginning of the year to mid - March, the yield rose rapidly, and the credit spread widened to the highest level of the year. From late March to early July, the yield declined continuously, and the credit spread narrowed. From mid - July to the end of September, the yield rose again, and the credit spread widened. From October to now, the yield has declined fluctuantly, and the credit spread first narrowed and then widened [34][35][36] 2.2 Overview of Outstanding Industrial Bonds - As of December 26, 2025, there are 13,625 outstanding industrial bonds in the narrow - caliber credit bond market, with a total scale of 15.39 trillion yuan, covering 29 Shenwan primary industries [39] - The public utilities and non - bank finance industries have an outstanding industrial bond scale of over 2 trillion yuan, significantly leading other industries. The issuers of outstanding industrial bonds are mainly concentrated in high - grade central and local state - owned enterprises [39][41] - The weighted average remaining term of outstanding industrial bonds is 3.08 years. Industries with a longer weighted average remaining term include comprehensive, communication, and coal, while industries with a shorter term include media, light manufacturing, and national defense and military industry [46][49] - In terms of implicit ratings, AA(2) and AA - rated industrial bonds account for 25% in total, ranking first, followed by AA+ (24%) and AAA (19%) [52] - Taking AAA - rated industrial bonds as an example, industries such as real estate, coal, and pharmaceutical biology have relatively high spreads, with certain yield - mining potential [58] 3. Industry - Specific Financial Analysis 3.1 Profitability - In the first three quarters of 2025, the total revenue of industrial bond issuers reached 53.88 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.50%. Among the 29 industries, 11 industries achieved year - on - year positive growth in total revenue, with machinery and equipment and computer industries leading in revenue growth [62] - The total net profit of industrial bond issuers reached 2.43 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.32%. 16 industries achieved year - on - year positive growth in total net profit, with textile and apparel and steel industries leading in growth [62] - The non - bank finance industry has a net profit margin of over 30%, far higher than other industries, followed by environmental protection and public utilities industries, with a net profit margin of over 10% [62] 3.2 Debt Situation - As of the end of the third quarter of 2025, industries such as building decoration and real estate have relatively high debt pressure, with an asset - liability ratio of over 70%, while industries such as national defense and military industry and media have relatively low debt pressure, with an asset - liability ratio of less than 50% [64] - The total interest - bearing debt of industrial bonds reached 86.35 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.58%. Only 4 industries, including communication, textile and apparel, electronics, and real estate, saw a year - on - year decrease in total interest - bearing debt [64] - Industries such as non - bank finance, public utilities, and social services have a relatively high proportion of interest - bearing debt to total liabilities, over 70%, while industries such as automobile and national defense and military industry have a relatively low proportion, less than 45%, with relatively low debt - repayment pressure [64] 3.3 Debt - Repayment Ability - As of the end of the third quarter of 2025, industries with strong short - term debt - repayment ability include textile and apparel, national defense and military industry, media, and light manufacturing, with a coverage ratio of monetary funds to short - term debt of over 100%, while industries such as non - bank finance, steel, and petroleum and petrochemical have relatively weak short - term debt - repayment ability, with a coverage ratio of less than 50% [66] 3.4 Cash Flow Situation - In the first three quarters of 2025, the net inflow of operating cash flow of industrial bond issuers increased by 18.40% year - on - year. Among the industries with positive operating cash flow, 12 industries, including comprehensive and real estate, achieved year - on - year positive growth [68] - The net inflow of financing cash flow of industrial bond issuers increased by 145.37% year - on - year. Among the industries with positive financing cash flow, 6 industries, including electronics and environmental protection, achieved year - on - year positive growth [68] - The net outflow of investment cash flow of industrial bond issuers increased by 14.33% year - on - year, with an overall increase in investment expenditure. All 29 industries had a net outflow of investment cash flow, and 19 industries, including comprehensive and computer, saw an increase in investment expenditure [68]

一周观点 总量研究 上周观点 | 领域 | 一周观点 | 分析师 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 政策有望持续发力，叠加各类资金有望积极流入，市场有望震荡上行。一方面，历史来看，A | | | | 股市场中几乎每年都存在"春季躁动"行情；另一方面，经济增长有望保持在合理区间，进一 | | | 策略 | 步夯实资本市场繁荣发展的基础。此外，政策红利释放，有望提振市场信心，进一步吸引各类 | 张宇生 | | | 资金积极流入。行业配置方面，结合往年规律及当前市场环境，关注成长及消费板块；主题方 | | | | 面，可逢低关注商业航天概念。 | | | | 上周黄金价格上涨，国内权益市场指数震荡下行，创业板指明显回调；行业主题基金表现来看， | | | 金工 | 金融地产主题基金表现占优，TMT 主题基金净值回调。国内市场新成立基金 40 只，合计发行 | 祁嫣然 | | | 份额为 183.21 亿份。股票型 ETF 资金逆势大幅流入，各类宽基 ETF 资金均受到加仓，被动资 | | | | 金主要加仓方向为大盘宽基 ETF、港股 ETF、TMT 主题 ETF。 | | | | 上周 A 股整 ...

- The report discusses a **volume-timing model** for broad-based indices, which provides signals based on market volume trends. As of December 26, 2025, the model indicates a "cautious" view for the SSE 50 index, while other indices such as SSE Composite, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, ChiNext, and Beijing 50 show "bullish" signals[2][23][24] - A **momentum sentiment indicator** is introduced, which calculates the proportion of stocks in the CSI 300 index with positive returns over a specific period (N days). The formula is: $ \text{CSI 300 N-day Upward Proportion} = \frac{\text{Number of CSI 300 stocks with positive returns in the past N days}}{\text{Total number of CSI 300 stocks}} $ This indicator is effective in capturing upward opportunities but has limitations in avoiding risks during market downturns. Recently, the indicator's value has been around 71%[24][25][28] - A **moving average sentiment indicator** is also discussed, which uses eight moving averages (8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233) to assess market trends. The indicator assigns values based on the number of moving averages above or below the current price. When the number of moving averages above the price exceeds five, the market is considered bullish. This indicator currently shows that the CSI 300 index is in a positive sentiment zone[30][33][36] - The report evaluates **cross-sectional volatility** and **time-series volatility** as measures of alpha generation potential. Cross-sectional volatility for CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stocks shows mixed trends, with CSI 500 experiencing an increase, indicating a better short-term alpha environment. Time-series volatility for all three indices has decreased recently, suggesting a weaker short-term alpha environment[41][42][43] - A **fund clustering degree indicator** is used to monitor the degree of fund concentration. This is measured by the standard deviation of cross-sectional returns of clustered funds. A lower standard deviation indicates higher clustering. Recently, the clustering degree has slightly increased, and both clustered funds and stocks have shown higher excess returns over the past week[83][85][87]

Group 1: Macro Insights - The US real estate market is currently in a "weak supply and demand" state, with expectations of a weak recovery by 2026 due to challenges in policy transmission and external risks [2] - Industrial profits in November continued to decline year-on-year, with only the midstream equipment sector showing stable growth, while upstream and downstream sectors weakened [3] - The A-share market has not shown clear signs of a bull market peak, indicating continued potential for market performance [4] Group 2: Market Strategies - The A-share market is expected to experience a spring rally supported by ongoing policy efforts and capital inflows, with a focus on growth and consumer sectors [5] - The REITs market has shown signs of price recovery after five weeks of decline, with notable returns compared to other asset classes [6] - Credit bond issuance increased by 15.42% week-on-week, indicating a positive trend in the credit market [7] Group 3: Industry Research - The green methanol sector is rapidly growing under the "carbon neutrality" initiative, with a focus on companies that have established a complete supply chain [10] - The engineering machinery industry is witnessing a recovery in domestic demand and accelerated overseas growth, with several key manufacturers recommended for investment [11] - Strategic metals are expected to see investment opportunities due to favorable supply-demand dynamics and resource nationalism [12] Group 4: Company Research - Sinopec Engineering's acquisition of the East China Pipeline Design Institute is expected to enhance its competitive edge in pipeline transportation [19] - China Oil Engineering has signed a $424 million EPC contract for a pipeline project in Kazakhstan, indicating its proactive expansion into overseas markets [20] - Jinhui Liquor is positioned to benefit from regional brand advantages and market expansion, with strong revenue and profit growth projections [21]

2025 年 12 月 28 日 行业研究 国家发改委强调对铜冶炼强化管理和优化布局 ——铜行业周报（20251222-20251226） 要点 期货：SHFE 铜活跃合约本周持仓环比+2%。截至 2025 年 12 月 26 日，SHFE 铜活跃合约持仓量 25.2 万手，环比上周+2.2%，持仓量处 1995 年至今 80%分 位数。截至 12 月 16 日，COMEX 非商业净多头持仓 6.5 万手，环比上周+3.8%， 持仓量处 1990 年以来 89%分位数。 本周小结：继续看好铜价上行。截至 2025 年 12 月 26 日，SHFE 铜收盘价 98720 元/吨，环比 12 月 19 日+5.95%；LME 铜收盘价 12133 美元/吨，环比 12 月 19 日+3.37%。（1）宏观：本周周内美元指数创 2025 年 11 月 21 日以来新低。（2） 供需：国家发改委 12 月 26 日发布《大力推动传统产业优化提升》，强调对氧 化铝、铜冶炼等产业强化管理和优化布局。线缆企业开工率本周下降，铜价大涨 对需求有压制，但展望 2026 年，供需依然偏紧，继续看好铜价上行。 库存：国内铜社库环比 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [5] Core Insights - The report highlights that hot-rolled inventory is at its highest level for the same period in five years, indicating potential supply chain pressures [41] - The liquidity environment is characterized by a historical high in gold prices, with the London gold spot price reaching $4,533 per ounce [11] - The report notes a decline in construction activity, with national real estate new starts down 20.50% year-on-year for the first 11 months of 2025 [20] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquidity - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for December 2025 is at 47.15, down 10.19% month-on-month [11] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -3.1 percentage points in November 2025, a decrease of 1.10 percentage points month-on-month [18] - The current London gold price is $4,533 per ounce, reflecting a 4.41% increase from the previous week [11] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Hot-rolled inventory is at the highest level for the same period in five years, with rebar prices down 1.20% this week [41] - The national high furnace capacity utilization rate is at 85%, unchanged from the previous week [10] - The cement price index has decreased by 0.49% this week, with a national cement utilization rate of 30.14%, down 0.9 percentage points [59] Industrial Chain - The national semi-steel tire operating rate is at 72.05%, up 0.66 percentage points week-on-week [2] - The price of tungsten concentrate has reached a new high since 2012, at 460,500 yuan per ton, up 6.35% from last week [2] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 22,060 yuan per ton, reflecting a 1.01% increase week-on-week [10] Price Relationships - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar has turned positive, with the current difference at 10 yuan per ton [3] - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is 4.02 this week [3] - The price of stainless steel hot-rolled and electrolytic nickel has a ratio of 0.10 [3] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in November is 47.60%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points month-on-month [3] - The CCFI composite index for container shipping rates is at 1,146.67 points, up 1.95% week-on-week [3] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate is at 75.30%, down 1.20 percentage points from the previous week [3] Valuation Metrics - The CSI 300 index increased by 1.95%, with the chemical sector performing best at +4.23% [4] - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the CSI 300 is currently at 0.50, with a historical high of 0.82 [4] - The report suggests that the steel sector's supply may be reasonably constrained, leading to potential recovery in profitability to historical average levels [4]

Investment Ratings - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both the power equipment and environmental protection sectors [1]. Core Views - The AIDC power/storage, lithium battery, and hydrogen-ammonia sectors are highlighted as key investment areas, with a focus on the North American AI chain and the ongoing demand for energy storage solutions [3]. - The lithium battery sector is experiencing a recovery due to supply chain adjustments and production cuts among phosphate lithium companies, which are expected to enhance pricing power [4]. - The hydrogen-ammonia sector is viewed positively due to supportive policies and market expectations, with significant investment potential anticipated [4]. Summary by Sections AIDC Power/Storage - North American AI chain is driving interest in AIDC power and storage, with liquid cooling technology opening new order opportunities [3]. - The outlook for overseas energy storage remains strong, particularly in the U.S., where electricity shortages continue to drive demand [6]. Lithium Batteries - Recent environmental assessments for lithium mines and production cuts among phosphate lithium companies are expected to stabilize prices and enhance negotiation power [4]. - The investment hierarchy for lithium materials is ranked as follows: lithium carbonate > hexafluorophosphate > aluminum foil > separator > copper foil > anode [4][19]. Hydrogen-Ammonia and Wind Power - The hydrogen-ammonia sector is expected to gain traction as a key application for renewable energy consumption, supported by favorable policies [4]. - Wind power installations are projected to grow significantly, with onshore wind capacity expected to increase by 9.68% year-on-year in 2024 [7]. Energy Storage - The domestic energy storage market is experiencing sustained growth, with significant installations reported in Inner Mongolia [6]. - Key projects include a 20GWh energy cell procurement by Ningde Times and various large-scale storage projects in Shanxi and Hebei [6]. Wind Power - The report notes a substantial increase in wind power installations, with a total of 82.50GW added in 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 59.42% [7]. Pricing Trends - The report indicates that the prices of key materials such as lithium carbonate and phosphoric iron lithium are experiencing fluctuations, with market dynamics affecting supply and demand [20][30].

2025 年 12 月 28 日 行业研究 25 年周期景气下行龙头优势明显，26 年继续看好行业龙头穿越周期 ——石油化工行业周报第 434 期（20251222—20251228） 要点 2025 年中信石油石化指数年度涨幅为 15.1%，跑输沪深 300 和万得全 A 指数。 回顾 2025 年全年，上半年石化行业股价受油价预期变动影响剧烈， 4 月随 着 OPEC+超预期增产，油价大幅下行，石油石化指数大幅下跌。下半年以来， 市场对 25 年油价的预期趋于一致，石油石化行业指数受益于国企改革、反内 卷等主题出现阶段性上涨行情，但整体涨幅仍落后于大盘指数。截至 2025 年 12 月 26 日，2025 年中信石油石化指数全年涨幅为 15.1%，相较于沪深 300 指数的超额收益率为-6.8%。 油价波动期股价韧性凸显，持续看好 "三桶油"及下属油服工程企业。2025 年前三季度，"三桶油"克服油价震荡下行、炼油毛利收窄、化工品需求恢复 缓慢等困难,实现了稳健的业绩和现金流。25H2，油价下行的不利影响逐渐减 弱，叠加三季度以来中国石油、中国石化、中国海油在油价下行期的投资价值 逐渐被市场认可，"三桶油 ...