Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the green methanol industry, but it highlights significant growth potential and investment opportunities in the sector. Core Insights - The global scale of green and low-carbon methanol projects is rapidly increasing, with a total planned capacity of 56.3 million tons by November 2025. GENA Solutions estimates that actual global green methanol capacity could reach between 6 to 13 million tons by 2030, with securing purchase agreements and financing for construction being the main challenges for project realization [5][14][25]. - Biomass methanol technology's gasification stage is critical, as its technical level and operational stability directly impact project feasibility and economics. Balancing costs and carbon utilization rates based on raw material characteristics is essential for project success. Electrolytic methanol technology is mature and synergizes well with renewable energy, but high costs of water electrolysis and complex system integration hinder large-scale promotion, making the reduction of electricity costs a priority [5][31][49]. - A complete core loop of resources, technology, and customers is essential for green methanol projects from planning to production. In the context of high costs for green methanol, finding end customers willing to pay a green premium and signing long-term purchase agreements to secure future cash flows is crucial for stable commercial operations [5][64]. Summary by Sections 1. Green Methanol Capacity Scale Steadily Increases - The production methods for methanol include natural gas (dominant globally), coal (high domestic share in China), and green methanol (biomass or electrolytic, lower carbon emissions but higher costs). The future trend focuses on "carbon neutrality," with renewable electricity and biomass routes accelerating towards mainstream production after cost reductions [8][19]. 2. Biomass Methanol: Gasification is Key, Cost Reduction and Efficiency Improvement are Directions - Gasification is the core process for biomass methanol production, involving four key steps: pretreatment, gasification, gas purification and adjustment, and methanol synthesis and purification. The efficiency of gasification directly affects project production efficiency and unit costs [31][74]. 3. Electrolytic Methanol: Cost Reduction is the Top Priority - Electrolytic methanol technology typically captures CO2 from biomass power plant emissions and combines it with hydrogen produced from renewable energy through electrolysis. While the technology is mature and synergizes well with renewable energy, high costs associated with hydrogen production and carbon capture present significant challenges for large-scale promotion [49][58]. 4. From Planning to Production: Resources, Technology, and Customers are Indispensable - The Northeast region of China is a key area for green methanol projects, supported by abundant biomass, wind, and water resources. Local government policies further accelerate industry clustering, creating a dual policy dividend of "national subsidies + local matching" [64][79]. 5. Investment Recommendations - Companies that have preemptively laid out green methanol manufacturing and have products certified (e.g., RED, ISCC) are highlighted as key investment targets, including JinFeng Technology, China Tianying, Jilin Electric Power, and others [5][64].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the machinery industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment returns over the next 6-12 months [1]. Core Insights - Domestic demand for excavators continues to grow, with November 2025 sales reaching 20,027 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%. Domestic sales accounted for 9,842 units, up 9.1% year-on-year. For the first 11 months of 2025, total excavator sales were 212,162 units, reflecting a 16.7% increase, with domestic sales at 108,187 units, up 18.6% [3][4]. - The report highlights a significant recovery in non-excavator machinery categories, with loader sales in November 2025 increasing by 29.4%, motor grader sales up 24.7%, and truck crane sales rising by 25.8% [3][4]. - The ongoing replacement cycle in the machinery sector is expected to drive sales growth, with an estimated compound annual growth rate of around 30% for replacement demand in the coming years [4]. - Positive fiscal policies are anticipated to stimulate infrastructure investment, ensuring sustained mid-term demand for machinery [5]. - Export performance remains strong, with excavator exports in November 2025 reaching 10,185 units, a year-on-year increase of 18.8%, and total export value for the first 11 months of 2025 at $53.76 billion, up 12.4% [6]. - The electric loader segment shows remarkable growth, with sales in November 2025 reaching 2,935 units, a 192.0% increase year-on-year, and an electricization rate of 25.7% [7]. - The commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project is expected to further boost machinery demand, with projected equipment needs estimated between 120 billion to 180 billion RMB [9]. Summary by Sections Domestic Sales Performance - November 2025 excavator sales reached 20,027 units, with domestic sales at 9,842 units, marking a 9.1% increase year-on-year [3][14]. - Loader sales in November increased by 32.1%, with domestic sales up 29.4% [14]. Export Performance - Excavator exports in November 2025 totaled 10,185 units, reflecting an 18.8% year-on-year increase [6][14]. - The total export value for machinery in November was $5.23 billion, a 16.6% increase [6]. Future Growth Drivers - The report emphasizes the importance of ongoing fiscal policies to support infrastructure investment, which is expected to drive machinery demand [5]. - The electricization trend in machinery is highlighted, with significant growth in electric loader sales and an increasing electricization rate [7]. Key Companies Recommended - The report recommends several leading manufacturers, including SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, LiuGong, Shantui, and China Longgong, as well as component manufacturers like Hengli Hydraulic [10].

2025 年 12 月 26 日 策略研究 A 股牛市见顶三重预警框架 ——解密牛市系列之五 要点 历史来看，牛市见顶是多重因素共同作用的结果 从历史市场运行规律来看，牛市见顶绝非单一因素偶然触发的结果，而是多重因素 长期积累、相互交织并形成合力后的必然趋势。具体而言，导致牛市见顶的核心因 素可归纳为三大类，分别是政策与外部环境类因素、基本面类因素以及市场交易类 因素。其中，政策收紧或外部风险冲击是重要的前置影响变量，基本面回落是趋势 反转的核心验证变量，而交易信号则是见顶的最终确认变量。 牛市见顶的三类预警信号 政策边际收紧与外部风险是牛市见顶的核心预警信号之一。具体来看，2005-2007 年牛市见顶的预警信号包括内部政策收紧（多次提准、上调印花税）与外部次贷危 机的共振冲击；2013-2015 年牛市见顶的预警信号包括杠杆资金调控政策收紧（严 查场外配资、规范融资融券）；2016-2018 年牛市见顶的预警信号包括金融去杠杆 政策（资管新规征求意见稿、规范投融资行为）与外部贸易摩擦、全球流动性收紧； 2019-2021 年牛市见顶预警信号包括行业针对性政策（房地产调控、平台经济反 垄断、校外培训监管）与 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the biomedical sector [4] Core Insights - The brain-computer interface (BCI) industry is at a critical stage of policy support, rapid technological iteration, and accelerated commercialization, with a global market approaching $10 billion [3][9] - The industry is driven by both policy and technology, with significant investments from major countries, including approximately $4.5 billion from the U.S. BRAIN Initiative and hundreds of billions in China [1][51] - The medical application of BCI technology is the most mature segment, focusing on neurorehabilitation, functional replacement, and disease treatment, with a dual growth curve emerging from medical and consumer applications [2][45] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - BCI is defined as a technology that creates a communication channel between the brain and external devices, enabling direct information exchange [16] - BCI can be categorized into invasive, semi-invasive, and non-invasive types, each with distinct applications in medical rehabilitation, consumer interaction, and military use [17][19] - The global BCI market is projected to grow from $1.2 billion in 2019 to approximately $7.63 billion by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 13% [24] Policy Guidance - Major countries have launched BCI-related initiatives, with the U.S. and EU leading in funding and research efforts [52][53] - China's "Brain Plan" aims to enhance brain science and BCI technology, with significant funding expected in the coming years [54][57] Clinical Applications - The medical sector is the primary focus for BCI applications, with significant demand driven by conditions such as stroke and disabilities [45][48] - Clinical trials for BCI products are accelerating globally, with notable advancements in both invasive and non-invasive technologies [3][19] Industry Progress - The report highlights the competitive landscape, noting that while foreign companies like Neuralink and Synchron have a head start, domestic firms are making significant strides in key areas such as flexible electrodes and real-time language decoding [2][4][30] - The BCI industry is characterized by a complex supply chain, with upstream components like electrodes and chips, midstream product supply, and downstream applications across various sectors [30][33] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on companies with strong technological barriers and clinical application capabilities, particularly in the medical sector, which is the most developed area for BCI commercialization [3][9] - Specific companies to watch include medical scene integrators and leaders in invasive/semi-invasive technologies, such as Xiangyu Medical, Weisi Medical, and Brain Tiger Technology [3][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Sinopec Engineering (2386.HK) [4][6] Core Insights - The acquisition of East China Pipeline Design Institute enhances the company's pipeline transportation business qualifications, expected to improve overall competitiveness [2] - The company has seen rapid growth in new contracts, with a total of 913 billion yuan signed in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.4% [3] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the modernization of China's industrial system and the high-quality development of the petrochemical industry, particularly in the Middle East market [3] Summary by Sections Acquisition and Business Expansion - The company announced the acquisition of 100% equity in East China Pipeline Design Institute for 191 million yuan, which will strengthen its integrated EPC service capabilities from design to procurement and construction [1][2] - The East China Pipeline Design Institute, established in 1993, has a projected net profit of 10.48 million yuan for 2024 and a net asset value of 168 million yuan as of August 31, 2025 [2] Market Growth and Contract Acquisition - The company has accelerated its market expansion, achieving a 24.4% year-on-year increase in new contracts, with domestic contracts growing by 16.3% and overseas contracts by 38.6% [3] - The total uncompleted contract amount reached 2,155 billion yuan, a 24.8% increase year-on-year, indicating strong future revenue potential [3] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be 2.595 billion, 2.760 billion, and 2.902 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.59, 0.63, and 0.66 yuan per share [4] - The company is expected to maintain a low valuation with high dividend value, supported by its resource advantages from Sinopec Group [4]

2025 年 12 月 26 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 行业研究 【公用事业】广东 26 年综合上网电价同比基本持平，符合市场预期——碳中和领域 动态跟踪（一百六十七）(买入) | | 股指期货 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘 | 涨跌% | | IF2601 | 4632.00 | 0.27 | | IF2602 | 4618.60 | 0.27 | | IF2603 | 4610.60 | 0.32 | | IF2606 | 4561.80 | 0.36 | | | 商品市场 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘 | 涨跌% | | SHFESHFE 黄金 | 1008.76 | -0.58 | | SHFESHFE 燃油 | 2489 | 0.36 | | SHFESHFE 铜 | 96210 | 0.11 | | SHFESHFE 锌 | 23065 | -0.71 | | SHFESHFE 铝 | 22275 | -0.25 | | SHFESHFE 镍 | 125410 | -2.02 | | | 海外市场 | | | --- | - ...

2025 年 12 月 25 日 行业研究 广东 26 年综合上网电价同比基本持平，符合市场预期 ——碳中和领域动态跟踪（一百六十七） 要点 事件：广东省 2026 年度电力交易结果落地。 火电电量电价接近下浮 20%水平，绿电综合电价高于机制电价 成交均价 372.14 厘/千瓦时，同比-5.03%，基本为市场参考价下浮 20%水平。 其中年度双边协商交易电价 372.14 厘/千瓦时，同比-5.03%，成交电量占年度 交易总成交量的 99.87%。绿电双边协商交易电价 372.21 厘/千瓦时，叠加环境 溢价 4.93 厘/千瓦时，对应综合电价为 377.14 厘/千瓦时，同比-3.88%；但高于 机制电价 360 厘/千瓦时。2026 年绿电交易量较 2025 年同比+17.74%（2026 年交易量为 47.79 亿千瓦时，2025 年为 40.59 亿千瓦时）。 容量电价预计同比提升 0.016 元/千瓦时，综合上网电价预计同比基本持平 2026 年 1 月起，广东煤电容量补贴由之前 100 元/千瓦的容量电价提升至每年 165 元/千瓦，参考广东省 2024 年火电利用小时数 3950 小时，对应 ...

分析师点评 市场数据 2025 年 12 月 25 日 晨会速递 总量研究 【宏观】黄金权重下调，需要担忧么？——《光大投资时钟》第二十八篇 近期市场担忧明年 1 月彭博商品指数再平衡或带来黄金集中抛售，引发技术性调整。 但历史上看 2024 年和 2025 年也曾经出现类似情况，但对市场并未造成冲击。一方 面，指数调整涉及到的资金体量并不大，对市场流动性影响有限；另一方面，部分参 与者可能会提前预判甚至"抢跑"。考虑到明年 1 月金价上升势头或延续，市场成交 量或较为活跃，指数再平衡带来的技术性抛压影响相对有限。 【宏观】关税扰动边际消退，美国经济增速回升——2025 年三季度美国经济数据点 评 美国 2025 年三季度 GDP 环比增速回升，主要来自"抢进口"效应减弱、对美采购增 加下的净出口贡献，消费在关税扰动消退后也开始修复。其中，个人消费与净出口分 别拉动 GDP 增速 2.4 个、1.6 个百分点。从降息角度看，受政府停摆影响，四季度美 国 GDP 增速或再次承压，但基数效应下，明年一季度美国经济数据或显著上行，美 联储在 2026 年一季度暂缓降息的概率较大。 【债券】商业银行大幅增持利率债—— ...

Group 1: Market Concerns - The upcoming rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index in January 2026 may lead to a concentrated sell-off of gold, causing technical adjustments[2] - Historical adjustments in 2024 and 2025 due to rising gold prices did not significantly impact the market[2] - The adjustment involves a relatively small fund size of $6.5 billion, which is limited compared to the average daily trading volume of over $400 billion in the gold market[2][14] Group 2: Index Rebalancing Details - The Bloomberg Commodity Index aims for diversity and balance, with annual adjustments based on trading volume and global market value[3] - The target weight for gold in 2026 is set at 14.9%, down from an actual weight of 20.88%, indicating a reduction of approximately 6 percentage points[9][14] - The rebalancing process will occur over five trading days, allowing for a smooth transition without significant market disruption[2][14] Group 3: Price Trends and Influences - Gold prices are expected to continue rising in January 2026, driven by potential interest rate cuts and increased demand for safe-haven assets due to government shutdown risks[20] - Historical data shows that during previous rebalancing periods, gold prices remained relatively stable despite adjustments in weight[8][12]

2025 年 12 月 24 日 行业研究 六氟博弈长单涨价，看好锂电材料反弹 ——碳中和领域动态追踪（一百六十六） 要点 从周期角度来看，价格与盈利仍处于向上阶段。临近材料厂与下游电池厂谈定 26Q1 长协的关键时期，长协定价从较长周期变化为月度谈价或者 M-1 价格联动 机制，反映上游供需紧张程度与上下游议价能力差异的矛盾，材料环节当前的投 资回收期仍较长，难以刺激扩产以匹配下游需求增速。复盘 6F 公司历史 PB， 相关公司股价仍有向上弹性。 需求向好预期下，锂电材料各环节均有供需改善趋势。锂电投资逻辑主要博弈长 单价格和国内储能 2026 年排产需求预期，考量供需缺口的变化趋势，只要需求 趋势仍在，供需缺口就难以弥合，锂电供需好转、震荡向上趋势确立。供给端， 关注供给变数较大的锂矿及盈利尚不支持扩产隔膜、铜铝箔的投资机会，推荐排 序：碳酸锂>6F>铝箔>隔膜>铜箔>负极，6F/VC 供需关系取决于龙头扩产节奏与 挺价博弈，但由于较高的辨识度使其仍成为锂电涨价首选配置方向。 投资建议：后续需关注锂电材料谈价落地情况、锂电排产、26Q1 需求的持续性。 建议关注锂电及储能龙头、供需改善带来涨价弹性更大的材 ...