Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance [3][6]. Core Insights - The company, Kingboard Laminates (1888.HK), is a leading manufacturer of copper-clad laminates with a vertically integrated supply chain, maintaining a global market share of 14.4% in 2024, the highest in the industry [2][3]. - The demand for copper-clad laminates is expected to grow due to the robust expansion of the PCB industry, driven by applications in AI servers, consumer electronics, automotive electronics, and communication devices [1][41]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from rising copper prices and a tight supply environment, which are expected to enhance both pricing and profitability [2][3]. Company Overview - Kingboard Laminates was established in 1988 and has evolved into a major player in the copper-clad laminate market, with over 60 factories globally and a strong presence in South China and East China [1][16]. - The company specializes in various types of copper-clad laminates, including FR-4 epoxy glass fiber laminates, which are crucial for mainstream markets such as computers and communications [2][25]. Market Position - The copper-clad laminate market is characterized by high concentration, with the top four manufacturers holding approximately 50% of the market share, indicating significant barriers to entry and strong pricing power for established players [2][70]. - The report highlights that the company has a strong bargaining power due to its diversified customer base, with the top five customers accounting for less than 30% of total sales [2][3]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of HKD 2.17 billion, HKD 3.95 billion, and HKD 4.84 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 64%, 82%, and 22% [3][5]. - The report indicates that the company's stock is currently undervalued compared to its peers, with projected P/E ratios of 27x, 15x, and 12x for the years 2025 to 2027 [3][5]. Industry Analysis - The PCB industry is expected to see a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.2% from 2024 to 2029, with the total market value projected to reach USD 94.66 billion by 2029 [1][44]. - The demand for high-frequency and high-speed copper-clad laminates is increasing, particularly in the AI server sector, which requires advanced materials to support higher data transmission rates [2][67].

CPI Analysis - In January 2026, the CPI year-on-year growth rate dropped to +0.2%, down from +0.8% in the previous month, and below the market expectation of +0.4%[2] - The food prices decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, compared to an increase of 1.1% in the previous month, contributing to a decline of 0.32 percentage points in CPI[4] - The core CPI year-on-year growth rate fell to +0.8%, down from +1.2% in the previous month, influenced by the Spring Festival timing[5] PPI Analysis - The PPI month-on-month growth rate increased to +0.4% in January 2026, up from +0.2% in the previous month, marking the fourth consecutive month of increase[6] - The year-on-year PPI decline narrowed to -1.4%, a reduction of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month[6] - The prices in the non-ferrous metal mining sector rose by 5.7% month-on-month, driven by international price increases[6] Market Outlook - The upward trend in CPI is expected to continue, supported by rising raw material prices affecting durable consumer goods[3] - The central government's focus on regulating pig production capacity is anticipated to lead to a moderate improvement in pork prices in the second half of the year, supporting CPI readings[3] - The PPI is projected to turn positive year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, influenced by global commodity price increases and domestic policy adjustments[11]

2026 年 2 月 11 日 总量研究 如何解读 2025 年四季度货币政策执行报告？ ——2025Q4 货币政策执行报告学习体会 作者 分析师：王佳雯 执业证书编号：S0930524010001 021-52523870 wangjiawen@ebscn.com 分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 要点 事件：2026 年 2 月 10 日，中国人民银行发布《2025 年第四季度中国货币政策 执行报告》。 核心观点： 2025Q4 货政报告中，央行肯定了国内经济工作成果和物价回升的积极变化， 对 2026 年国内经济增长较为乐观。货币政策基调不变，提出要稳定短端利率， 可能顺应推出相应政策工具；降息更需要"择时"，但应关注汇率持续升值对 货币政策调节的影响；重申货币政策和财政政策的协同配合，关注到"大资 管"行业内部资金流动产生的摩擦，流动性总体无忧，利好国内股债市场。 一、如何解读 2025 年四季度货币政策执行报告？ 国内宏观方面：2025 年经济工作圆满完成，物价运行呈现积极变化。《2025 年第四季度货币政策 ...

Investment Rating - Steel industry: Maintain "Overweight" rating [6] - Non-ferrous industry: Maintain "Overweight" rating [6] Core Insights - The report highlights the potential for increased dividend payouts in the steel and aluminum sectors, driven by three main factors: the inclusion of market value management in assessments, significant insurance capital entering the market, and a gradual decline in capital expenditures within the steel and aluminum industries [3][5][29]. Summary by Sections Dividend Potential Analysis - The report identifies that only 8 companies in the steel and aluminum sectors currently have dividend yields above 3%, with notable companies including Youfa Group (6.90%), Ordos (4.62%), and Baosteel (4.18%) [2][22]. - A total of 14 companies in the steel and aluminum sectors meet the criteria for strong dividend potential, which includes having a high ratio of undistributed profits to total market value, sufficient cash reserves, and a debt ratio below 60% [4][32]. Factors Supporting Dividend Increases - The inclusion of market value management in the assessment of central enterprises is expected to accelerate the realization of dividend potential, as it encourages companies to enhance their market performance and return value to investors through increased cash dividends [3][25]. - The influx of insurance capital into the market is pushing for a revaluation of dividend-paying assets, as high dividend strategies become a core choice for insurance companies seeking stable returns [3][27]. - Capital expenditures in the steel and aluminum industries are anticipated to decline as the steel industry's ultra-low emission upgrades conclude and aluminum production approaches capacity limits, which may lead to higher future dividend payouts [3][30]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with high undistributed profits, ample cash reserves, and low debt ratios, specifically highlighting Huazhong Steel, Baosteel, and Jiuli Special Materials as key investment opportunities, while suggesting to keep an eye on China Aluminum [5][34].

2026 年 2 月 11 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【宏观】"安全"的溢价：地缘政治如何重塑全球利率曲线？——《光大投资时钟》 系列第二十九篇 地缘政治正通过"安全"溢价深刻重塑全球利率曲线，超长端利率的上行本质是财政 扩张服务于国家安全的结构性变化，而非简单的周期性波动。高通胀下推行的财政扩 张，大幅削弱了传统意义上债券的避险属性。在美国中期选举之前，特朗普带来的宏 观叙事仍将主导资产价格波动，人民币计价资产已经显现出"避风港"属性。风险提 示：地缘危机升级超预期；美国经济超预期走弱并引发风险偏好下行；美国对关键矿 产加征关税政策调整；海外巨头 AI 资本开支低于预期。 【海外策略】恒生科技：战略配置区间已至，逆势布局正当时——港股策略观点更新 当前恒生科技指数已形成"超卖估值洼地 + 资金逆势抢筹 + AI 基本面向上 + 回购 加码在即"的四重底部特征，短期情绪扰动充分释放，风险收益比显著优化，是中长 期战略配置的黄金窗口。优先配置恒生科技 ETF，兼具互联网龙头、AI 应用、算力等 全板块标的，个股配置方向：优先配置"AI+平台"双主线龙头标的，聚焦商业化落 地快、现金流稳健、估 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kingsoft Corporation (3888.HK) [5] Core Insights - Kingsoft is expected to experience a structural differentiation in its performance, with gaming business under pressure while office software shows strong growth driven by AI and digital transformation [1][3] - The gaming revenue is projected to decline by 29% year-on-year in 4Q25, while the office business is anticipated to grow by 15% year-on-year in the same period [2][3] - The company has a strong cash position and significant undervaluation of its core equity holdings, providing a safety net against short-term performance fluctuations [1] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - For 4Q25, Kingsoft's revenue is expected to be 2.6 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 5% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9% [1] - The operating profit margin is projected to improve to 19% quarter-on-quarter, aligning with an annual operating profit margin of approximately 19% for 2025 [1] Gaming Business Outlook - The gaming segment is forecasted to see a revenue drop of 27% year-on-year for 2025, totaling 3.8 billion RMB [2] - The new game "Goose Duck" is expected to drive recovery in 2026, having shown strong user engagement with 5 million new users on its first day of public testing [2] Office Business Performance - The office software segment is expected to benefit from the deepening of digital transformation in government and enterprises, with WPS Office achieving 669 million monthly active devices [3] - The integration of AI features is anticipated to enhance user engagement and conversion rates, contributing to sustained revenue growth [3] Valuation and Financial Metrics - The report revises the net profit forecast for 2025 to 1.29 billion RMB, down from a previous estimate of 2.07 billion RMB, while introducing a 2027 net profit forecast of 1.6 billion RMB [4] - The company is seen to have a high safety margin due to its robust cash reserves and significant equity undervaluation, suggesting potential for performance rebound post-2026 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company plans to raise up to 1 billion yuan to establish itself as a leader in the PEEK full industry chain, driven by increasing demand for PEEK materials in various sectors [6][8] - The company has announced a three-year shareholder return plan, committing to cash dividends of at least 10% of distributable profits annually, with higher ratios depending on the company's development stage and capital expenditure needs [9] - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are estimated at 79 million, 85 million, and 100 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.45, 0.49, and 0.57 yuan per share [10] Summary by Sections Fundraising and Project Development - The company intends to issue shares to raise up to 1 billion yuan for projects including an annual production of 8,100 tons of high-performance resins and composites, and 5,000 tons of monomers, with total investments of 9.61 billion yuan and 3.48 billion yuan respectively [6][7] - The company will also establish a high-performance composite materials innovation center with an investment of 60 million yuan [6] Strategic Partnerships - The company plans to sign an investment agreement with the Nanjing Jiangbei New Materials Technology Park to support the construction of integrated projects for high-performance resins and composites [7] Market Outlook - The PEEK material market is expected to experience rapid growth due to its superior properties and increasing applications in electronics, aerospace, automotive, and medical fields [8] - The company has established a strong reputation and customer base, including partnerships with renowned chemical groups, positioning it well for future growth [8] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 435 million yuan in 2023 to 591 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 13.25% [11] - The company’s net profit margin is expected to stabilize around 17% by 2027, reflecting improved operational efficiency [16]

Group 1 - The current Hong Kong stock market is in a phase of oscillation and correction, with the Hang Seng Technology Index dropping from a peak of around 6000 points in mid-January to 5346.2 points by February 6, marking a weekly decline of 6.51%, the largest in recent weeks [1] - The adjustment within the sector shows significant differentiation, with semiconductor and internet leaders experiencing larger declines, while new energy vehicles and home appliances showed relative resilience, indicating that funds are concentrating on quality core assets rather than exiting the market entirely [1][2] - The report emphasizes that the current market conditions represent a "golden layout window" for investors, characterized by oversold valuations, counter-cyclical capital inflows, and improving fundamentals [1][10] Group 2 - Southbound capital has shown a "buy the dip" behavior, with a net inflow of 560.7 billion HKD in the week of February 6, the highest weekly net inflow in three months, indicating strong confidence from domestic investors in the Hong Kong technology sector [2] - The concentration of capital flows has increased, with technology ETFs becoming key tools for domestic investors, reflecting a shift from traditional high-dividend sectors to technology growth sectors [2][3] - The report notes that the Hang Seng Technology Index's PE (TTM) is at 22.1 times, significantly below its historical average of 32.1 times and the global comparable technology indices, highlighting a valuation discount of over 35% [4] Group 3 - The report identifies four solid support dimensions for the Hang Seng Technology Index: technical, valuation, capital, and fundamental aspects, which collectively create a "margin of safety" for the sector [3] - The technical indicators show that the index is severely oversold, with a strong support level around 5400 points, which has not been effectively breached despite recent declines [3][4] - The fundamental outlook is bolstered by the sector's deep integration with the AI wave, with over 70% of the index's components related to AI, indicating strong growth potential as the industry transitions from R&D to commercialization [6][7] Group 4 - The report attributes the recent decline in the Hang Seng Technology Index to short-term emotional disturbances rather than a reversal of fundamental trends, driven by external tightening expectations, internal profit-taking, and unfounded rumors [7][8] - It emphasizes that the current market downturn is a valuable opportunity for investors to acquire quality assets, as the emotional "panic low" often represents a "golden buying point" [9][10] - The report suggests a strategy of "buying in batches and holding long-term," focusing on core stocks that are rapidly commercializing AI applications and have stable cash flows [9][10]

2026 年 2 月 10 日 总量研究 "安全"的溢价：地缘政治如何重塑全球利率曲线？ 核心观点：地缘政治正通过"安全"溢价深刻重塑全球利率曲线，超长端利率的 上行本质是财政扩张服务于国家安全的结构性变化，而非简单的周期性波动。高 通胀下推行的财政扩张，大幅削弱了传统意义上债券的避险属性。在美国中期选 举之前，特朗普带来的宏观叙事仍将主导资产价格波动，人民币计价资产已经显 现出"避风港"属性。 主要经济体超长端利率共振上行。全球超长端利率的同步攀升，并非简单的经济 周期驱动，而是地缘政治裂变下的结构性转向。特朗普就职后的"百日新政"引 发了市场对财政赤字无序扩张与关税冲突的担忧，驱动市场为远期通胀与主权信 用风险重定价。 期限溢价为"安全"进行定价。期限溢价正经历一场范式革命：国家安全、供应 链重塑与科技竞争等无限需求，取代了主权信用成为超长债定价的新锚点。美债 "武器化"事件暴露了储备资产"安全化"的浪潮，而竞争性财政扩张、再工业 化与资源囤积三大结构性因素，彻底颠覆了供需自发调节机制。 关注叙事被颠覆的可能。当前利率曲线的陡峭化，起始于 2025 年 1 月 20 日特 朗普就职这一政治事项，但政治动能 ...

2026 年 2 月 10 日 行业研究 【环保】特斯拉加码光伏扩产，中国光伏设备与辅材龙头企业有望受益——碳中和领 域动态追踪（一百七十二）(买入) 特斯拉计划在 2028 年底前在美国本土实现从原材料端起的 100GW 一体化光伏制造。 美国光伏产能的扩张离不开中国的设备和技术，光伏组件的生产制造亦离不开中国的 辅材供应链。建议关注双良节能、晶盛机电、连城数控、拉普拉斯、捷佳伟创、奥特 维、ST 京机、福斯特、聚和材料、帝科股份、永臻股份等。 【房地产】【光大地产】核心城市楼市成交高频跟踪 20260209(增持) 截至 2026 年 2 月 8 日(由于基数变动，年初同比数据波动性较大为正常情况)， 20 城新房：累计成交 5.6 万套(-13.7%)；北京 3013 套(+2%)、上海 8996 套(+16%)、深 圳 1858 套(-55%)；10 城二手房：累计成交 10.6 万套(+33.2%)；北京 1.8 万套(+37%)、 上海 2.9 万套(+45%)、深圳 6532 套(+27%)。 公司研究 【社服】川渝风味面馆龙头，加速全国布局——遇见小面（2408.HK）投资价值分析 报告(增持 ...