Investment Rating - The report recommends "Buy" for Microsoft and "Watch" for Google, Amazon, and Meta [7] Core Insights - The AI narrative among US tech giants has shifted multiple times since 2025, with Google showing strong stock performance while Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon have faced consolidation [3] - Despite strong Q3 2025 earnings validating AI demand, stock performance has diverged due to concerns over long-term AI investment returns and macroeconomic risks [3] - The cloud computing sector continues to show robust growth, with significant increases in revenue and order backlogs across major players [4][24] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - Google has outperformed, while Meta and Microsoft have seen stock price consolidation [10] - The valuation of Google has improved significantly, while Meta and Microsoft have returned to mean valuations [11] 2. Industry Overview - Strong cyclical business growth driven by AI demand, with optimistic capital expenditure guidance for 2026 [18] - Q3 2025 earnings for tech giants exceeded expectations, with a positive outlook for Q4 [19] 3. Q3 2025 Earnings Analysis - Google’s advertising revenue reached $74.18 billion, up 12.7% YoY, driven by strong search and YouTube ad performance [20] - Amazon's e-commerce segment saw a decline in operating margin due to one-time costs, but AI-driven products are expected to generate significant future revenue [21] - Cloud revenue from Microsoft, Google, and Amazon exceeded expectations, confirming strong AI computing demand [24][25] 4. Capital Expenditure Insights - Microsoft’s capital expenditure for Q1 FY26 was $34.9 billion, up 74.5% YoY, with significant increases in AI capacity expected [31] - Google raised its 2025 capital expenditure guidance to $91-93 billion, reflecting ongoing investments in technology infrastructure [32] - Amazon's capital expenditure is projected to reach $125 billion in 2025, with ongoing capacity constraints primarily in power supply [32] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report highlights the strong cash flow and cost control capabilities of tech giants, providing a safety net for earnings [6] - AI computing demand is expected to continue growing, although the commercial viability of downstream AI applications remains to be fully realized [6]

- **Quantitative factors tracked** - Single factor performance: In the CSI 300 stock pool, the best-performing factors this week include PE TTM inverse (3.05%), PE factor (2.30%), and PB factor (2.06%) [12][13] - In the CSI 500 stock pool, the best-performing factors include PE TTM inverse (2.71%), PB factor (2.07%), and PE factor (1.74%) [14][15] - In the liquidity 1500 stock pool, the best-performing factors include PE TTM inverse (1.74%), PE factor (1.68%), and PB factor (1.34%) [16][17] - **Sector-specific factor performance** - Fundamental factors such as net asset growth rate, net profit growth rate, per-share net asset factor, and per-share operating profit TTM factor achieved positive returns in the oil and petrochemical sector [21][22] - Valuation factors like BP factor performed well across most industries [21][22] - Residual volatility factor and liquidity factor showed significant positive returns in the comprehensive industry [21][22] - **Factor classification and market trends** - Broad market factor performance: Valuation factors achieved positive returns of 0.40%, while market capitalization factors and non-linear market capitalization factors recorded negative returns of -0.72% and -0.40%, respectively, indicating a small-cap style market trend [18][20] - Momentum factor and Beta factor recorded negative returns of -0.79% and -0.43%, respectively, reflecting a reversal effect in the market [18][20] - **Quantitative portfolio tracking** - PB-ROE-50 portfolio: This week, the portfolio achieved excess returns of 1.00% in the CSI 500 stock pool, 0.48% in the CSI 800 stock pool, and -2.00% in the broad market stock pool [23][24] - Institutional research portfolio: The public fund research stock selection strategy achieved excess returns of 0.00% relative to the CSI 800, while the private fund research tracking strategy recorded excess returns of -1.96% relative to the CSI 800 [25][26] - Block trading portfolio: Constructed based on the principle of "high transaction volume, low volatility," this portfolio achieved excess returns of 1.08% relative to the CSI All Share Index this week [29][30] - Private placement portfolio: Built around the event-driven strategy of targeted placements, this portfolio achieved excess returns of 1.93% relative to the CSI All Share Index this week [35][36] - **Performance metrics of quantitative portfolios** - PB-ROE-50 portfolio: Weekly excess return of 1.00% in CSI 500, 0.48% in CSI 800, and -2.00% in the broad market [24] - Institutional research portfolio: Weekly excess return of 0.00% for public fund research stock selection and -1.96% for private fund research tracking [26] - Block trading portfolio: Weekly excess return of 1.08% [30] - Private placement portfolio: Weekly excess return of 1.93% [36]

Group 1: Core Insights - The food and beverage sector, particularly the liquor segment, has been undergoing adjustments since 2021, with the white liquor sector experiencing significant changes since May 2025, leading to a market sentiment shift [5][7][40] - The white liquor industry is expected to continue its adjustment phase into 2026, with a focus on left-side allocation opportunities as the sector's average dividend yield is around 3.5% and the price-to-earnings ratio is below 20 times [5][40] - The beer industry is shifting towards scenario-based expansion, with a focus on non-consumption channels and cross-category growth as the market matures [5][56][74] Group 2: White Liquor Sector - The white liquor sector has faced a negative revenue growth rate of 4.9% in Q2 2025, with a further decline of 18.4% in Q3 2025, indicating a significant pressure release in the industry [13][19] - Major brands like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye have reported declining revenues, with Moutai's TTM revenue at 178.6 billion and a growth rate of 8.1%, while Wuliangye's revenue has decreased by 10% from its peak [20][23] - The next high-end liquor brands are also experiencing substantial revenue drops, with brands like Jiu Gui Jiu and She De Jiu Ye seeing declines of 77% and 36% respectively from their peak revenues [27][32] Group 3: Consumer Goods Sector - The consumer goods sector, particularly in beer, is witnessing a slowdown in the high-end market, with companies focusing on expanding their distribution channels and product categories to seek growth [5][56] - The condiment market is facing weak demand in the B-end restaurant sector, while the C-end is showing a clear trend towards health and convenience, with companies like Yihai International focusing on high dividend yields and overseas market expansion [5][80][90] - The dairy sector is seeing a gradual improvement in sales, particularly in low-temperature products, with companies like Yili and New Dairy focusing on enhancing their operational performance [92][94]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report focuses on the weekly observation of credit bonds from November 3, 2025, to November 7, 2025. It shows that the issuance volume of industrial bonds increased, while that of urban investment bonds and financial bonds decreased. The overall credit spread of the industry declined, and the total trading volume of credit bonds decreased [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Primary Market 3.1.1 Issuance Statistics - From November 3 to 7, 2025, a total of 334 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 363.403 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 7.66% [1][10]. - Industrial bonds: 162 were issued, with a scale of 176.92 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 5.36%, accounting for 48.68% of the total credit bond issuance scale [1][10]. - Urban investment bonds: 145 were issued, with a scale of 101.213 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 20.60%, accounting for 27.85% of the total credit bond issuance scale [1][10]. - Financial bonds: 27 were issued, with a scale of 85.27 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 13.12%, accounting for 23.46% of the total credit bond issuance scale [1][10]. - The average issuance term of credit bonds was 3.01 years. The average issuance terms of industrial bonds, urban investment bonds, and financial bonds were 2.93 years, 3.19 years, and 2.55 years respectively [1][13]. - The average issuance coupon rate of credit bonds was 2.18%. The average issuance coupon rates of industrial bonds, urban investment bonds, and financial bonds were 2.15%, 2.25%, and 1.96% respectively [2][17]. 3.1.2 Cancellation of Issuance Statistics One credit bond was cancelled for issuance during the week [3][22]. 3.2 Secondary Market 3.2.1 Credit Spread Tracking - Overall, the industry credit spread declined this week. Among Shenwan primary industries, the largest decline in AAA - rated industry credit spread was in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, down 6.1BP; the largest increase in AA + - rated industry credit spread was in steel, up 0.8BP, and the largest decline was in textile and clothing, down 30.4BP; the largest decline in AA - rated industry credit spread was in mining, down 6.6BP [3][23]. - For urban investment bonds by region, the largest decline in AAA - rated credit spread was in Guizhou, down 9.1BP; the largest increase in AA + - rated credit spread was in Tianjin, up 0.9BP, and the largest decline was in Yunnan, down 23.9BP; the largest decline in AA - rated credit spread was in Chongqing, down 11.6BP [3][26]. 3.2.2 Trading Volume Statistics - The total trading volume of credit bonds was 129.1166 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 17.33%. The top three in trading volume were corporate bonds, commercial bank bonds, and medium - term notes [3][27]. - Commercial bank bonds: The trading volume was 36.1397 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 21.28%, accounting for 27.99% of the total credit bond trading volume [3][27]. - Corporate bonds: The trading volume was 44.9388 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 6.83%, accounting for 34.80% of the total credit bond trading volume [3][27]. - Medium - term notes: The trading volume was 28.9413 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 26.27%, accounting for 22.41% of the total credit bond trading volume [3][27]. 3.2.3 Actively Traded Bonds This Week The report selects the top 20 urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds in terms of trading volume this week for investors' reference, providing details such as security codes, abbreviations, trading volumes, yields, and issuers [29][30][31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - From November 3 - 7, 2025, the secondary - market prices of China's listed public REITs showed a fluctuating downward trend, with a weighted REITs index return rate of - 0.48%. Compared with other major asset classes, REITs' performance was average. The return rate ranking from high to low was: convertible bonds > crude oil > A - shares > pure bonds > gold > REITs > US stocks. The secondary - market price trends of equity - type and franchise - type REITs diverged, and municipal facility - type REITs had the largest increase. In terms of single - REIT performance, there were 33 rising, 1 flat, and 42 falling REITs (excluding the newly - listed one). The trading volume, turnover rate, net inflow of main funds, and large - scale trading volume also showed differentiation among different REITs. In the primary market, a new REIT was listed, and the status of two REIT products was updated [1][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Secondary Market 3.1.1 Price Trends - **At the major asset level**: From November 3 - 7, 2025, the secondary - market prices of China's listed public REITs showed a fluctuating downward trend. The closing and total return indices of China Securities REITs and the weighted REITs index all had negative returns. Compared with other major asset classes, REITs' return rate was - 0.48%, ranking behind convertible bonds, crude oil, A - shares, etc. [11] - **At the underlying asset level**: The price trends of equity - type and franchise - type REITs diverged. Equity - type REITs declined with a return rate of - 0.86%, while franchise - type REITs rose with a return rate of 0.39%. Among different underlying asset types, municipal facility - type REITs had the largest increase, with a return rate of 2.25%. The top three in terms of return rate were municipal facility - type, ecological and environmental protection - type, and consumer - type REITs [17][19]. - **At the single - REIT level**: Excluding the newly - listed REIT, there were 33 rising, 1 flat, and 42 falling REITs. The top three in terms of increase were China AMC JINMAO Commercial REIT, Zheshang Expressway REIT, and Guotai Junan Jinan Energy Heating REIT, with increases of 4.42%, 2.37%, and 2.25% respectively. The top three in terms of decline were GF Chengdu Gaotou Industrial Park REIT, CICC Liandong Science and Technology Innovation REIT, and E Fund Guangzhou Development District High - tech Industrial Park REIT, with declines of 9.44%, 8.43%, and 7.01% respectively [23]. 3.1.2 Trading Volume and Turnover Rate - **At the underlying asset level**: The trading volume of public REITs this week was 2.88 billion yuan, and the new infrastructure - type REITs had the highest average daily turnover rate. The top three in terms of trading volume were park infrastructure - type, transportation infrastructure - type, and affordable rental housing - type REITs, with trading volumes of 684 million, 507 million, and 442 million yuan respectively. The top three in terms of average daily turnover rate were new infrastructure - type, affordable rental housing - type, and park infrastructure - type REITs, with rates of 0.86%, 0.83%, and 0.80% respectively [25]. - **At the single - REIT level**: The trading volume and turnover rate of single REITs continued to show differentiation. The top three in terms of trading volume were China AMC Hefei High - tech REIT, China AMC CR Land Youchao REIT, and Soochow Industrial Park REIT. The top three in terms of trading amount were China AMC Hefei High - tech REIT, China AMC CCCC REIT, and China AMC CCOF Commercial REIT. The top three in terms of turnover rate were CSC Shenyang International Software Park REIT, China AMC CCOF Commercial REIT, and China AMC Hefei High - tech REIT [28]. 3.1.3 Net Inflow of Main Funds and Large - scale Trading - **Net inflow of main funds**: The total net inflow of main funds this week was 38.36 million yuan, and the market trading enthusiasm decreased compared with last week. Among different underlying asset REITs, the top three in terms of net inflow were consumer infrastructure - type, park infrastructure - type, and new infrastructure - type REITs. Among single REITs, the top three were China AMC CCOF Commercial REIT, China AMC CR Land Commercial REIT, and China AMC CR Land Youchao REIT [31]. - **Large - scale trading**: The total large - scale trading amount this week was 240.26 million yuan, a decrease compared with last week. There were large - scale trading transactions on 5 trading days, and the highest single - day trading amount was on November 3, 2025. The top three in terms of large - scale trading amount were Southern Runze Technology Data Center REIT, China Merchants Expressway REIT, and Huatai Baowan Logistics REIT [32]. 3.2 Primary Market - **Listed projects**: As of October 31, 2025, there were 77 public REITs in China, with a total issuance scale of 19.9301 billion yuan. The transportation infrastructure - type had the largest issuance scale, followed by the park infrastructure - type. This week, CSC Shenyang International Software Park REIT was listed on November 6, 2025, and its asset type was park infrastructure [38][39]. - **Pending - listing projects**: There were 17 REITs in the pending - listing state, including 10 initial - offering REITs and 7 REITs pending for expansion. This week, the project status of "Shanxi Securities Jinzhong Public Investment Ruiyang Heating Closed - end Infrastructure Securities Investment Fund (Initial Offering)" was updated to "Feedback Received", and that of "E Fund Guangxi Beitou Expressway Closed - end Infrastructure Securities Investment Fund (Initial Offering)" was updated to "Accepted" [42].

Export Performance - In October 2025, China's exports totaled $305.35 billion, a year-on-year decline of 1.1%, significantly lower than the expected increase of 3.2%[2] - The decline in export growth is attributed to a high base effect from the previous year and calendar effects, with one less working day in October 2025 compared to October 2024[4] - Major contributors to export growth included integrated circuits and automobiles, while labor-intensive products saw a negative contribution, with a 14.8% year-on-year decline in seven key labor-intensive products[14] Import Trends - Imports in October 2025 reached $215.28 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 1.0%, below the expected 4.1%[2] - The decline in export growth negatively impacted the import of related raw materials and intermediate goods, with semiconductor imports showing strong demand, growing by 29.6%[20] - The import price of major commodities increased, with iron ore and copper prices rising by 8.8% and 22.2% respectively[20] Trade Balance - The trade surplus for October 2025 was $90.07 billion, slightly down from the previous month's surplus of $90.45 billion[2] - The combined export share from the US, EU, and ASEAN accounted for 43.3% of total exports, while Latin America and Africa contributed 13.7%[5] Future Outlook - The export growth for the remaining two months of the year is expected to be influenced by high base effects, but the overall positive export trend is anticipated to continue[24] - Emerging markets, particularly in Africa and Latin America, are expected to support export growth, with manufacturing PMIs in these regions remaining in the expansion zone[24] - A potential easing of trade tensions with the US, including a reduction in tariffs on certain products, may lead to a marginal recovery in exports to the US[24]

Group 1 - The foundation of a long-term bull market requires not only liquidity improvement but also robust fundamental enhancements, with historical data showing that the longer the time cycle, the stronger the correlation between market performance and fundamentals [3][7][11] - The current bull market has significant room for growth, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing a performance close to previous structural bull markets, yet still having considerable upside compared to comprehensive bull markets from 2005-2007 and 2013-2015 [5][6] - The policy environment provides critical turning points for expected improvements, with historical instances indicating that key policy announcements often coincide with the onset of bull markets [15][18] Group 2 - In 2026, price changes are expected to be a major driver of profitability, with projections indicating that A-share earnings growth will gradually recover to around 10%, particularly in the non-financial sector [40][53] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" provides a significant policy foundation for economic and industrial development, with expectations for positive market performance in the opening year of the plan [112][114] - The structural highlights in profitability are anticipated to emerge from sectors such as AI, semiconductors, and advanced manufacturing, which are expected to continue their upward trajectory [56][61] Group 3 - Resident funds are the most crucial source of capital for the A-share market, with a notable trend of "deposit migration" observed, indicating a sustained flow of funds into the equity market [63][67] - High-risk preference funds have been the primary incremental source of capital in the current bull market, similar to trends seen in 2015, while medium-risk preference funds are expected to become significant contributors in the next phase [70][91] - The importance of ETF investments is expected to increase, with passive equity funds showing better performance and gaining traction among investors [96][100]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected investment return that will outperform the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [5][13]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.944 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.69%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 888 million yuan, also up by 14.58% year-on-year [1]. - The company is focusing on its core business and actively expanding its market presence, particularly in the new energy sector, which has led to a steady increase in sales revenue and market share in areas such as electric vehicles, photovoltaics, and energy storage [2]. - The company emphasizes shareholder returns, having distributed a cash dividend of 20 yuan per 10 shares in the first half of 2025, totaling 450 million yuan, which accounts for 43.31% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the year [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.445 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.31% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.52%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 318 million yuan, up 8.69% year-on-year and 4.31% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2025 was 32.88%, a decrease of 1.23 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 22.53%, a slight decrease of 0.01 percentage points [1]. - The company has a comprehensive product range that meets the demands of various industries, including industrial control, smart grids, and household appliances [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for the company has been adjusted downwards due to delays in wind and solar construction and a slowdown in the automotive electronics sector. The net profit estimates for 2025 and 2026 are now 1.308 billion yuan and 1.601 billion yuan, respectively [3]. - The estimated price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025-2027 are projected to be 20X, 16X, and 14X, respectively, reflecting the company's position as a leader in the film capacitor market with significant growth potential [3].

Macro Analysis - The recent rise of the US dollar index above 100 is attributed to increased internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve regarding potential rate cuts in December, alongside rising US Treasury yields supporting the dollar's strength [2] - The dollar is expected to remain volatile around the 100 mark in Q4, influenced by potential dovish signals from the new Fed chair and ongoing uncertainties regarding tariff judicial decisions and Japan's currency management [2] Industry Research - The carbon neutrality initiatives in China and the EU are expected to enhance domestic companies' revenue sources due to high carbon prices in Europe [5] - The global shipping industry is accelerating its decarbonization efforts, with the International Maritime Organization (IMO) promoting green fuel policies, leading to sustained high prices for green methanol amid rising demand and limited supply [5] - Hydrogen and ammonia methanol are emerging as significant directions for new energy consumption and applications in non-electric sectors, likely attracting more investments and driving the development of hydrogen production equipment and biomass gasification technologies [5] Company Research - For Yutong Optical (300790.SZ), the rapid advancement of products in new consumption and automotive sectors has led to an upward revision of net profit forecasts for 2025-2026 to 263 million and 402 million yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 452 million yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating [8] - For Maijie Technology (300319.SZ), Q3 2025 revenue reached 1.107 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.75%, while net profit slightly decreased by 1.11% year-on-year to 96 million yuan, with a "buy" rating maintained due to strong order volumes in various product lines [9] - Qualcomm (QCOM.O) exceeded expectations for FY2025, with net profit forecasts for FY2026-2027 set at 11.5 billion and 12.5 billion USD, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 108% and maintaining a "buy" rating [10] - Shanghai Fudan (1385.HK) reported significant year-on-year growth in revenue and profit for Q3 2025, with net profit forecasts adjusted to 530 million, 976 million, and 1.191 billion yuan for 2025-2027, maintaining a "buy" rating due to recovering demand in high-reliability and storage sectors [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qualcomm (QCOM.O) [6] Core Insights - Qualcomm's FY2025 performance exceeded expectations, driven by increased demand for high-end mobile SoCs and robust growth in automotive and IoT business segments [1][2][3][4] - The company reported Non-GAAP revenue of $44.141 billion for FY2025, a 13% year-over-year increase, surpassing Bloomberg consensus estimates of $43.690 billion [1] - For FY26Q1, Qualcomm's guidance also exceeded expectations, projecting Non-GAAP revenue between $11.8 billion and $12.6 billion, compared to the consensus estimate of $11.592 billion [1] Summary by Sections QCT Mobile Business - FY2025 mobile business revenue reached $27.793 billion, a 12% increase year-over-year, primarily due to rising demand for high-end Snapdragon chips from Android OEMs [2] - The launch of the Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen5 SoC is expected to enhance Qualcomm's market position, with Samsung's supply share projected to remain high at 75% [2] QCT IoT Business - FY2025 IoT revenue was $6.617 billion, reflecting a 22% year-over-year growth, driven by increased shipments in consumer, industrial, and edge network products [3] - The acquisition of Arduino is expected to strengthen Qualcomm's competitive edge in the edge AI sector [3] - New SoCs for high-end PCs and strong demand for XR and AI glasses are anticipated to contribute to future growth [3] QCT Automotive Business - FY2025 automotive revenue reached $3.957 billion, a significant 36% increase year-over-year, attributed to higher shipments of vehicles equipped with Qualcomm's smart cockpit technology [4] - The collaboration with BMW on the Snapdragon RidePilot system for L2+ driving assistance is being validated in over 60 countries, with plans for expansion [4] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts GAAP net profits of $11.5 billion for FY2026, $12.5 billion for FY2027, and $13 billion for FY2028, reflecting year-over-year growth rates of 108%, 8%, and 4% respectively [4] - Current price corresponds to FY2026-2028 P/E ratios of 17X, 15X, and 15X [4]