Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry [5] Core Insights - The global semiconductor sales are expected to continue growing in 2025, driven by demand from AI computing, data centers, and smart driving applications. The global semiconductor sales for January to October 2025 are projected to be approximately $612.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.9%, with China's semiconductor sales at about $169.4 billion, up 12.5% [1][22] - The global semiconductor market size is forecasted to reach $700.9 billion in 2025, reflecting an 11.2% year-on-year growth, with the Asia-Pacific region's market size expected to be around $370.6 billion, growing by 9.8% [1][22] - The expansion of wafer production capacity is accelerating, particularly in advanced processes, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% from 2024 to 2028 for global 12-inch wafer monthly capacity, expected to reach 11.1 million pieces by 2028 [2][26] - The demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) is increasing due to data centers and AI processors, with the global semiconductor materials market expected to reach approximately $70 billion in 2025, a 6% increase year-on-year [3][30] - The advanced process requires higher performance parameters for electronic chemicals, leading to a concentration of industry competition towards leading suppliers capable of meeting these demands [4][32] Summary by Sections Semiconductor Market - AI demand is driving global semiconductor sales growth, with projections for 2025 indicating a significant increase in both global and Chinese markets [1][22] - The semiconductor market is expected to grow to $700.9 billion in 2025, with a further increase to $760.7 billion in 2026 [1][22] Wafer Production Capacity - The global semiconductor wafer production capacity is set to expand significantly, particularly in advanced processes, with a CAGR of 14% for 7nm and below processes from 2024 to 2028 [2][26] Semiconductor Materials - The global semiconductor materials market is projected to grow to $70 billion in 2025, with a notable increase in China's market size to approximately 174.1 billion yuan, reflecting a 21.1% year-on-year growth [3][30] Electronic Chemicals - The advanced semiconductor processes require higher purity and stability in electronic chemicals, leading to a competitive landscape favoring top suppliers with technological and scale advantages [4][32] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in semiconductor materials, particularly those with strong technological capabilities and deep ties to downstream wafer manufacturers [34]

2025 年 12 月 20 日 总量研究 二级市场价格跌幅较大，市场交投热情环比下降 ——REITs 周度观察（20251215-20251219） 要点 1、 二级市场 2025 年 12 月 15 日-2025 年 12 月 19 日（以下简称"本周"），我国已上市公 募 REITs 二级市场价格整体呈现逐日持续下跌的态势：加权 REITs 指数的本周 回报率为-2.74%。与其他主流大类资产相比，回报率由高至低排序分别为：可 转债>黄金>美股>纯债>A 股>原油>REITs。 从项目属性来看，本周产权类和特许经营权类 REITs 均有所下跌：产权类 REITs 回报率为-2.05%；特许经营权类 REITs 回报率为-3.83%。 从底层资产类型来看，本周各类 REITs 均有所下跌，其中，生态环保类 REITs 跌幅最小。本周回报率排名前三的底层资产类型分别为生态环保类、仓储物流类 和园区类。 从单只 REIT 层面来看，排除本周上市的华夏安博仓储 REIT 后，有 2 只 REITs 上涨，有 75 只 REITs 下跌。涨跌幅方面，本周有所上涨的分别是华安外高桥 REIT 和博时津开产园 REI ...

Core Insights - Global technology investment enthusiasm remains high in 2025, but there is a structural differentiation characterized by "strong computing power, weak applications" [3] - Major global tech giants are significantly increasing capital expenditures, benefiting upstream computing chips and supporting hardware, while the computer/software sector faces three pressures: 1) Software companies' performance growth is overall lower than that of the computing chain; 2) Software company valuations are not cheap compared to hardware; 3) Concerns about "large models consuming software" continue to grow [3] - By Q3 2025, domestic public funds are underweight in the computer sector by 1.7 percentage points [10] Market Review: AI Applications' Concerns and Breakthroughs - The performance of the computer/software sector in both China and the US has been weak, with software and service-focused indices significantly underperforming hardware and semiconductor indices [5] - As of December 12, 2025, the A-share computer index has risen by 15.15%, lagging behind the 49.16% increase in the ChiNext index and the 45.90% increase in the electronic index [5] - In the US market, the IGV software index has only increased by 7.84%, underperforming the 22.52% rise in the Nasdaq Composite and the 39.75% increase in the SOXX semiconductor index [5] Opportunities in Chinese AI Applications 1. Deepening Industrial Applications - China possesses the world's only complete industrial system, providing high-value real-world data, application scenarios, and energy supply, which will foster diverse agent forms [27] - The construction of a modern industrial system is prioritized in the "14th Five-Year Plan," with expectations for intensive policy support for "Artificial Intelligence+" during this period [39] 2. Expanding Overseas - AI application teams in China can leverage "extreme efficiency + global pricing" arbitrage, with the engineer dividend in China continuing to expand [3] - Many computer companies prioritize overseas strategies, with overseas revenue growth generally outpacing domestic growth [64] 3. Reconstructing Edge AI - Internet giants and AI startups are actively exploring edge forms in the AI era, integrating deeply with existing consumer electronics and developing new AI-native hardware [3] - The shipment volume of related products is expected to have high growth potential as hardware and algorithms mature [3] Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies with industry know-how and data for industrial empowerment, such as Hikvision, Dahua Technology, and Han's Laser [3] - Prioritize AI application companies with high overseas revenue proportions, including Foxit Software and Kingsoft Office [3] - Pay attention to AI hardware brands and algorithm vendors benefiting from the emergence of blockbuster products, such as Rainbow Soft and iFlytek [3]

2025 年 12 月 20 日 总量研究 市场小市值风格显著，估值因子表现良好 ——量化组合跟踪周报 20251220 要点 量化市场跟踪 大类因子表现：本周全市场股票池中，估值因子和盈利因子分别获取正收益 0.27%、0.25%；市值因子、非线性市值因子分别获取负收益-0.91%、-0.51%， 市场表现为小市值风格；残差波动率因子获取负收益-0.44%；其余风格因子表 现一般。 单因子表现：沪深 300 股票池中，本周表现较好的因子有单季度 ROE 同比 (2.31%)、单季度 ROE (1.81%)、市盈率因子 (1.51%)。表现较差的因子有总资 产 增 长 率(-1.28%)、单 季 度 营 业 利 润 同 比 增 长 率 (-0.83%)、净 利 润 断 层 (-0.36%)。 中证 500 股票池中，本周表现较好的因子有市净率因子(1.78%)、标准化预期外 收入(1.74%)、经营现金流比率 (1.28%)。表现较差的因子有单季度净利润同比 增长率(-1.19%)、单季度营业利润同比增长率(-1.06%)、单季度 ROA 同比 (-0.98%)。 流动性 1500 股票池中，本周表现较好的因 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown signs of recovery this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising due to favorable policy implementation and improved market sentiment. The Shanghai 50 Index performed the best with a gain of 0.3%, while the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index saw a decline of 3.0%. The overall valuation of the entire A-share market is at the 85.7 percentile since 2010 [1][11][12] - The retail, non-bank financial, and beauty care sectors performed relatively well this week, with respective gains of 6.7%, 2.9%, and 2.9%. In contrast, the electronics, power equipment, and machinery sectors lagged behind, with declines of 3.3%, 3.1%, and 1.6% [1][13][19] Group 2 - Historically, the A-share market experiences a "spring rally" almost every year, driven by factors such as abundant liquidity at the year's end and optimistic policy expectations. Since 2012, there have been 13 instances of this rally, excluding 2022 [2][19] - Key catalysts for the spring rally include adjustments in monetary policy by the central bank, the release of important economic data, and significant meetings. These events provide new operational logic and upward momentum for the market [2][19][20] Group 3 - During the "spring rally" period from 2012 to 2025 (excluding 2022), major broad indices like the CSI 1000 and ChiNext Index had average gains of 21.0% and 20.7%, respectively. The TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors also performed well, with average gains of 22.2% and 21.3% during the same period [3][21][24] - Specific industries such as computers, non-ferrous metals, and machinery showed strong performance during the "spring rally," with average gains of 24.7%, 23.9%, and 22.7%, respectively [21][26] Group 4 - The 2026 cross-year market is expected to begin, with policies likely to continue supporting growth and various funds expected to flow into the market. This week, a strong market rally may indicate the start of this cross-year trend, particularly following a period of lackluster performance [4][29][30] - The central economic work conference has outlined a focus on maintaining a stable economic environment and promoting domestic demand, which is expected to bolster market confidence and attract long-term capital inflows [28][30] Group 5 - The growth and consumption sectors are highlighted for investment focus, with TMT and advanced manufacturing historically showing greater elasticity during the "spring rally." The current market environment suggests that the consumption sector may also attract attention due to its relatively low performance this year [5][35][42] - The consumption sector has lagged in performance this year, making it a potential target for "missed opportunity" funds. Recent performance indicates that sectors like retail and beauty care are beginning to show stronger gains [5][42][45]

2025 年 12 月 20 日 总量研究 信用债发行量环比下降，各行业信用利差涨跌互现 ——信用债周度观察（20251215-20251219） 要点 1、 一级市场 注：本篇报告的信用债口径包括定向工具、短期融资券、公司债、金融债（不含 同业存单和政金债）、中期票据、企业债。 2025 年 12 月 15 日至 12 月 19 日（以下简称"本周"），信用债共发行 347 只，发行规模总计 3705.49 亿元，环比减少 19.36%。 发行规模方面，本周，产业债共发行 170 只，发行规模达 1633.10 亿元，环比 减少 12.44%,占本周信用债发行总规模的比例为 44.07%；城投债共发行 138 只， 发行规模达 879.59 亿元，环比减少 0.96%,占本周信用债发行总规模的比例为 23.74%；金融债共发行 39 只，发行规模达 1192.80 亿元，环比减少 35.24%, 占本周信用债发行总规模的比例为 32.19%。 发行期限方面，本周信用债整体的平均发行期限为 2.63 年，其中，产业债平均 发行期限为 2.38 年、城投债平均发行期限为 3.14 年、金融债平均发行期限为 1. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "No Rating" status for the company [5] Core Insights - Domestic business is progressing steadily while international business is experiencing rapid growth. The subsidiary Lombard is expected to turn profitable this year. The company's gross margin is anticipated to recover to over 70% for the year, driven by improved production efficiency and a domestic raw material utilization rate exceeding 85% [1] - In Q3 2025, revenue grew by 64.68% year-on-year, primarily due to a low base effect from the previous year. However, profit declined year-on-year mainly due to product price adjustments. The overseas business has become a significant growth driver, with revenue growth exceeding 65% in the first three quarters, accounting for 18% of total revenue, and an overall gross margin of 50% for international operations [1] - The R&D pipeline is progressing steadily, with several key products expected to be launched soon. The Hector thoracic aortic multi-branch stent system has successfully completed its first clinical implantation in November, and other products are on track for approval within the next year [2] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company is a leader in the domestic aortic and peripheral intervention fields. Revenue in Q3 2025 achieved high growth from a low base, with ongoing expansion in overseas and peripheral businesses. The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downwards to 633 million and 705 million yuan respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 848 million yuan. The net profit growth rates for 2025 to 2027 are projected at 26.0%, 11.4%, and 20.3% respectively. The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of approximately 16 times for 2026 [3][4]

2025 年 12 月 19 日 总量研究 如何看待"失真"的美国通胀数据？ ——2025 年 11 月美国 CPI 数据点评 作者 分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 分析师：刘星辰 执业证书编号：S0930522030001 021-52523880 liuxc@ebscn.com 相关研报 美国通胀温和上涨，为后续降息打开空间— — 2025 年 8 月美国 CPI 数 据 点 评 （2025-09-12） 关税传导可控，降息预期升温——2025 年 7 月美国 CPI 数据点评（2025-08-13） 关税影响逐步显性化——2025 年 6 月美国 CPI 数据点评（2025-07-16） 美国通胀压力何时显现？——2025年5月美 国 CPI 数据点评（2025-06-12） 美国通胀继续回落，关税冲击尚待显现—— 2025 年 4 月美国 CPI 数 据 点 评 （2025-05-14） 高关税如何影响美国通胀？——2025年3月 美国 CPI 数据点评（2025-04-11） 美国通胀超预期回落，未来降息节 ...

2025 年 12 月 19 日 行业研究 从"低频咨询"到"高频陪伴"，AI 医疗激活"医药险"全链路闭环 ——蚂蚁集团旗下 AI 健康助手"蚂蚁阿福"上线点评 要点 事件： 12 月 15 日，蚂蚁集团将原 AI 健康应用"AQ"正式更名为"蚂蚁阿福"。该产 品在发布后数日内下载量激增，12 月 16 日跃升至苹果应用商店总榜 Top 3， MAU（月活用户）突破 1500 万，位居国内 AI 健康管理类 APP 首位。蚂蚁阿福 接入了 500 多位国家级院士及名医的"AI 分身"，将原本稀缺的顶级专家资源 通过大模型转化为 24 小时在线的"平民化服务"。 点评： 流量入口的重定向，推动高频医疗健康交互。"阿福"通过 AI 降低了健康咨询 门槛，过去互联网医疗的痛点是"低频"，而"AI 陪伴"将医疗拉向了高频健 康管理，成为链接患者与药品、服务的入口。我们认为阿福 AI 陪伴模式有望显 著提升用户活跃度（DAU）与留存率。AI 能够在用户需求产生的早期阶段完成 精准识别与分流，为后端的高毛利药品销售及专业医疗服务实现高效导流。 赋能"医+药+险"全链路闭环。蚂蚁依托支付生态（医保电子凭证）、保险（好 医 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group (1810.HK) [5][7]. Core Insights - Xiaomi's AI strategy is characterized as a long-distance race rather than a sprint, with significant investments planned for the next five years, exceeding 200 billion RMB [5]. - The newly released Mimo-V2-Flash model demonstrates industry-leading performance with a lightweight design featuring 309 billion total parameters and 15 billion activation parameters, outperforming competitors in key metrics [2]. - Xiaomi has established the largest consumer hardware platform globally, with 1.8 billion connected devices, including 740 million active mobile users and over 1 billion IoT devices, which provides a robust foundation for AI technology deployment [3]. Summary by Sections AI Model Development - The Mimo-V2-Flash model achieves a 2.0 to 2.6 times increase in inference speed and has a throughput of 5000-15000 tokens per second, significantly enhancing efficiency and cost-effectiveness for large-scale AI applications [2]. - The model is fully open-sourced, with APIs and web experiences available, aiming to attract global developers and create a positive feedback loop for model iteration [2]. Hardware Ecosystem - Xiaomi's hardware ecosystem includes 1.8 billion connected devices, with a focus on personal, automotive, and home devices, which enhances the potential for AI technology applications [3]. Software Infrastructure - The upcoming release of the Pengpai OS 3 in August 2025 will enhance ecosystem collaboration, supporting over 60 applications and 70 scenarios, with a daily active user base of 410 million [4]. - The Vela lightweight system and MINT platform are designed to facilitate AI deployment across various devices, with over 100 open-source partners contributing to the ecosystem [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Xiaomi indicate a growth trajectory, with expected revenues of 270.97 billion RMB in 2023, increasing to 635.31 billion RMB by 2027, and Non-IFRS net profits projected to rise from 19.27 billion RMB in 2023 to 50.97 billion RMB in 2027 [6][26]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in Non-IFRS earnings per share, from 0.77 RMB in 2023 to 1.96 RMB in 2027, reflecting strong profitability growth [6][26].