2025 年 9 月 15 日 行业研究 8 月，一二线城市新房价格环比小幅下跌，但降幅较上月已收窄，三线城市价格 环比下跌、降幅略有扩大；一二三线城市新房价格同比均小幅下降，且降幅较上 月均有收窄。前期上海、北京等城市陆续出台了当地房地产市场宽松政策，助力 当地市场止跌回稳，且均有一定成效；在 8 月房价数据中，一线城市表现最为坚 挺。期待宽松政策效力逐渐体现到基本面中，带动地产链需求回暖。 国家发改委与多国达成多份合作文件，其中包括共建"一带一路"相关规划。 8 月 30 日至 9 月 4 日，习近平主席出席 2025 年上海合作组织峰会、中国人民 抗日战争暨世界反法西斯战争胜利 80 周年纪念活动，并同与会外方领导人举行 系列活动。期间，国家发展改革委同有关国家达成 30 余份合作文件。重点包括： 共建"一带一路"方面，同哈萨克斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦等签署关于共建"一带一 路"合作规划，同古巴签署"一带一路"合作重点项目和任务清单的谅解备忘录， 同巴基斯坦签署关于中巴经济走廊合作对接的谅解备忘录。 8 月新房价格降幅总体收窄，发改委签署"一带一路"相关合作规划 ——建材、建筑及基建公募 REITs 周报（9 ...

总量研究 固定资产投资累计同比增速延续回落态势 2025 年 9 月 15 日 ——2025 年 8 月经济数据点评兼债市观点 要点 事件： 2025 年 9 月 15 日，国家统计局公布 2025 年 8 月经济数据：1）8 月规模以上 工业增加值同比增长 5.2%，前值为 5.7%；2）1-8 月固定资产投资累计同比增 长 0.5%，前值为 1.6%；3）8 月社会消费品零售总额同比增长 3.4%，前值为 3.7%。 点评： 工业生产放缓，"反内卷"政策对实际经济的影响显现。8 月规模以上工业增加 值同比增长 5.2%，涨幅较 7 月下降 0.5 个百分点，连续 2 个月增速下降。从环 比看，2025 年 8 月份规模以上工业增加值环比增长 0.37%，低于 2023 年、2024 年同期增速。对照数据来看，在"反内卷"背景下，工业企业生产端增速有所放 缓。 年内固定资产投资累计同比增速持续回落，8 月基建投资当月同比增速下降明 显。年内固定资产累计同比增速持续回落，8 月延续了这一态势；从结构上来说， 房地产地产投资持续偏弱，制造业和基建投资则从年初的高位回落，当月同比增 速已连续两个月为负值。 社消环 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives Conant Optical a "Buy" rating for its initial coverage [5]. Core Viewpoints - Conant Optical is a leading manufacturer of resin lenses in China, with a strong global presence and a focus on AI glasses business development [1][4]. - The company is expected to benefit from the growing demand for both traditional and smart eyewear, driven by increasing near-sightedness and aging populations [2][4]. - Conant's competitive advantages include high refractive index technology and a C2M (Customer-to-Manufacturer) customization model, which enhance its market position [3][4]. Company Overview - Conant Optical was established in 1996 and is headquartered in Shanghai, with production bases in Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Japan [1]. - The company ranks first among Chinese resin lens manufacturers by production volume and fifth globally by sales revenue [1][37]. - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue of 2.06 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 17.1% [1][6]. Market Trends - The eyewear market is experiencing a volume and price increase due to rising near-sightedness and presbyopia rates, as well as growing functional demands [2][38]. - In China, the per capita purchase of lenses is expected to rise from 8.6 pairs per 100 people in 2019 to 10.0 pairs in 2024, with spending increasing from 21.2 RMB to 27.1 RMB per person [2][49]. - The global lens manufacturing market is projected to grow to 8.2 billion USD by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 5.8% from 2024 to 2029 [2][50]. Business Segments - Conant's revenue is derived from three main segments: standard lenses (44%), functional lenses (37%), and customized lenses (19%) for 2024 [1][20]. - The functional lens segment is expected to see significant growth, with a 32.4% increase in revenue compared to the previous year [20]. Technological Advantages - The company has developed a high refractive index lens technology, being the first in China to mass-produce 1.74 refractive index resin lenses [3][61]. - Conant's C2M model allows for 24-hour customization and delivery, enhancing operational efficiency and customer satisfaction [3][64]. AI Glasses Market - The global smart glasses market is witnessing rapid growth, with a 116.1% year-on-year increase in shipments in China [4][72]. - Conant is positioned to capitalize on this trend due to its advanced optical technologies and partnerships with leading consumer electronics companies [4][70]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 566 million RMB, 712 million RMB, and 876 million RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5][6]. - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 34x, 27x, and 22x, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [5][6].

2025 年 9 月 15 日 总量研究 动量因子占上风，公募调研选股组合表现佳 ——量化组合跟踪周报 20250915 要点 量化市场跟踪 大类因子表现：上周（2025.09.08-2025.09.12，下同）beta 因子、动量因子和 规模因子获得明显正收益（0.70%、0.46%和 0.16%），市场动量效应显著，大 市值风格占优；其余因子表现一般。 单因子表现：沪深 300 股票池中，上周表现较好的因子有 5 日反转(3.11%)、早 盘收益因子(2.31%)、对数市值因子(2.24%),表现较差的因子有单季度营业利润 同比增长率(-1.80%)、下行波动率占比(-1.96%)、营业利润率 TTM(-2.27%)。 中证 500 股票池中，上周表现较好的因子有市销率 TTM 倒数(1.60%)、标准化 预期外收入(1.55%)、5 日反转(0.65%),表现较差的因子有 5 日平均换手率 (-1.97%)、成交量的 5 日指数移动平均(-2.06%)、6 日成交金额的移动平均值 (-3.19%)。 流动性 1500 股票池中，上周表现较好的因子有市销率 TTM 倒数(2.75%)、标准 化预期外盈利( ...

2025 年 9 月 15 日 总量研究 深化财税体制改革：赋能"十五五"高质量发展的制度基石 ——《财政洞悉》系列第九篇 要点 核心观点："十五五"时期的财税体制改革，既是破解当前财政紧约束的必由之 路，更是推进国家治理现代化的长远之策。通过预算制度革新释放资源潜力、税 制优化调节分配格局、央地关系重构激发治理活力、债务全口径管理扩大财政效 能，这一系列改革将为中国式现代化注入强劲动能。 "十四五"成果：财税体制改革的现实基础。2021 年 3 月 13 日公布的《中华 人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十四个五年规划和 2035 年远景目标纲要》提 出要建立现代财税体制，主要有两个方面的内涵：加快建立现代财政制度、完善 现代税收制度。经过四年半左右的时间，回顾来看，"十四五"期间财税体制改 革在预算制度改革、税收制度改革、理顺央地关系等方面均取得进展，但仍面临 财政收入增长乏力、支出刚性约束、地方债务压力等深层矛盾。 "十五五"期间，财税体制改革的核心方向。把握"十五五"规划中财税体制改 革可能方向的两个思路：其一，党的二十届三中全会通过《中共中央关于进一步 全面深化改革 推进中国式现代化的决定》，提出"深化 ...

- The report primarily focuses on the performance of various fund types, including equity funds, bond funds, and ESG funds, during the week of September 8-12, 2025[1][2][3] - TMT-themed funds demonstrated the most significant net value growth among industry-themed funds, with a weekly increase of 4.63%[2][39] - Passive index funds, particularly those focused on TMT themes like chips and electronics, also showed strong performance, with median weekly returns of 1.91%[2][44] - The report highlights the issuance of 23 new green bonds during the week, with a total issuance scale of 172.02 billion yuan, emphasizing the steady development of the domestic green bond market[4][72][76] - ESG funds, categorized into themes like "low carbon," "carbon neutrality," and "social responsibility," showed varied performance, with green and low-carbon funds leading in weekly returns[4][78][83]

2025 年 9 月 15 日 行业研究 电解铝价格创年内新高水平，铁矿石价格创近 6 个月以来新高 ——金属周期品高频数据周报（2025.9.8-9.14） 要点 流动性：伦敦金现价格创历史新高水平。（1）BCI 中小企业融资环境指数 2025 年 8 月值为 46.37，环比上月+0.61%；（2）M1 和 M2 增速差与上证 指数存在较强的正向相关性：M1 和 M2 增速差在 2025 年 8 月为-2.8 个百分 点，环比+0.4 个百分点；（3）本周伦敦金现价格为 3643 美元/盎司。 基建和地产链条：8 月下旬重点企业粗钢旬度日均产量环比-7.94%。（1） 本周价格变动：螺纹-1.53%、水泥价格指数-0.57%、橡胶-1.00%、焦炭 -3.40%、焦煤-0.93%、铁矿+0.38%；（2）本周全国高炉产能利用率、水 泥、沥青、全钢胎开工率环比分别 +4.39pct 、 +8.00pct 、 -1.8pct 、 +5.81pct；（3）8 月下旬重点企业粗钢旬度日均产量环比-7.94%。 地产竣工链条：钛白粉、平板玻璃毛利润处于低位水平。本周钛白粉、玻璃 的价格环比分别+0.39%、+0.0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a continuous increase in the prices of various metals, particularly electrolytic cobalt and polysilicon, while lithium concentrate prices have seen a decline. This indicates a mixed outlook for different segments within the new materials industry [1][2][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Non-Ferrous Metals - Electrolytic cobalt price is at 271,000 CNY/ton, up 3.0% week-on-week, with a price ratio of electrolytic cobalt to cobalt powder at 0.87, up 1.4% [1][10]. - Lithium concentrate (Li2O 5%) price is at 700 USD/ton, down 3.58% week-on-week [1]. - The price of lithium iron phosphate and 523-type cathode materials is stable at 343,000 CNY/ton and 1,147,000 CNY/ton, respectively [1]. Photovoltaic New Materials - Polysilicon price is at 6.45 USD/kg, up 4.0% week-on-week, indicating a recovery in the solar materials market [2]. - EVA price remains stable at 10,800 CNY/ton, reflecting a low position since 2013 [2]. Nuclear Power New Materials - Uranium price is at 59.58 USD/lb, up 4.0% week-on-week, indicating a positive trend in nuclear materials [2]. Consumer Electronics New Materials - The price of cobalt tetroxide is at 214,200 CNY/ton, up 0.56% week-on-week, while lithium cobalt oxide price remains stable at 175.0 CNY/kg [3]. - Silicon carbide price is stable at 5,300 CNY/ton, reflecting steady demand in the electronics sector [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the metal new materials sector, particularly lithium and cobalt, due to price increases and supply disruptions. Companies like Salt Lake Co., Zangge Mining, and Huayou Cobalt are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [4].

Macro Insights - The financial data for August shows a stable performance, with expectations for credit demand to recover due to the release of favorable effects from long-term special bonds and accelerated fiscal spending [2] - The US CPI for August rose to +2.9% year-on-year, indicating a moderate inflation increase, which may open up space for future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] Industry Strategy - The market is expected to favor growth and balanced sectors, with high valuation sectors like electric equipment, communication, computing, electronics, automotive, and media being highlighted for potential investment [4] - The stock market is anticipated to continue its upward trend, supported by reasonable valuations and new positive factors such as the potential start of a Federal Reserve rate cut cycle [5] Credit and Bond Market - In August, new RMB loans increased by 0.59 trillion yuan, and the social financing scale increased by 2.57 trillion yuan, indicating a month-on-month growth in both credit and social financing [9] - The issuance of credit bonds saw a significant increase, with 303 bonds issued totaling 372.67 billion yuan, a 123.89% increase from the previous period [10] Real Estate Market - In August, the transaction area of second-hand homes in first-tier cities showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, while the average transaction price decreased by 0.3% [20] - The report suggests focusing on structural opportunities in the real estate market, recommending companies like China Merchants Shekou and China Jinmao [20] Company Research - Longfor Group is experiencing short-term sales weakness, with a forecasted net profit of 6.22 billion yuan for 2025, maintaining an "overweight" rating [21] - Yuexiu Property is performing better than the market average, with an upward revision of net profit forecasts for 2025-2027, maintaining a "buy" rating [22] - Ordos, a leader in the silicon iron industry, is expected to maintain stable profits despite a downward revision of net profit forecasts due to energy consumption policies [23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the oil and gas industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The oil and gas industry has achieved significant exploration breakthroughs, with the oil service sector expected to benefit from the ongoing domestic reserve increase and production actions [10][11] - The "Three Barrel Oil" companies have significantly increased capital expenditures from 2020 to 2023, and are expected to maintain high levels in 2024 and 2025, which will benefit their affiliated oil service companies [11][12] - Global upstream capital expenditures are projected to decline slightly in 2025, but domestic investment is expected to remain high due to supportive policies [12] - The oil service sector's performance has improved, with major companies showing resilience in profitability despite falling oil prices [21][26] Summary by Sections Oil and Gas Breakthroughs - The Ministry of Natural Resources announced major breakthroughs in energy mineral exploration, including the discovery of 10 large oil fields and 19 large gas fields during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [10] - New geological reserves of over 300 billion cubic meters have been confirmed in the Ordos Basin alone, supporting stable oil production of 200 million tons and natural gas production exceeding 240 billion cubic meters [10][11] Capital Expenditure Trends - The "Three Barrel Oil" companies plan to invest approximately 210 billion, 72.9 billion, and 130 billion yuan in upstream capital expenditures for 2025, reflecting a 6% decrease from 2024 but still maintaining high levels [11][12] - Global upstream exploration and development spending is expected to be around 600 billion USD in 2025, a 4% year-on-year decline, with deepwater investments projected to decrease by 6% [12] Oil Service Sector Performance - In the first half of 2025, major oil service companies reported significant profit increases, with CNOOC Services' net profit rising by 23.3% and CNOOC Development's by 13.1% [21] - The gross profit margins of key oil service companies have improved, with CNOOC Services, CNOOC Engineering, and CNOOC Development showing increases compared to the previous year [21][26] International Competitiveness - The international competitiveness of domestic oil service companies is expected to improve, as their return on equity (ROE) has shown resilience compared to major international competitors [26] - The gross profit margins of domestic oil service companies have increased, while international competitors have experienced declines in their margins [26] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for the "Three Barrel Oil" companies and the oil service sector, as well as for leading companies in the refining and chemical sectors [5]