根据 wind 统计，2025 年 4 月地方政府债总发行量 6932.91 亿元，发行金 额同比 2024 年 4 月增长 101.6%，截至目前，2025 年一般债发行规模 0.65 万亿元，同比-0.04 万亿元，专项债发行规模 3.18 万亿元，同比+1.71 万亿元。化债下加码政府财政压力有望减轻，企业资产负债表也存在修复 的空间，市政工程类项目有望加快推进，市政管网及减隔震实物工作量有 望加快落地，关注龙泉股份、青龙管业、中国联塑、震安科技。玻璃需求 季节性环比改善，但供需仍有矛盾：2025 年后玻璃需求持续下滑，3 月以 来需求开始边际改善，但供需仍有矛盾，关注价格下行后的冷修。消费建 材持续推荐：消费建材受益二手房交易向好、消费刺激等政策，且具备长 期提升市占率的逻辑，估值弹性大，持续推荐北新建材、伟星新材，关注 三棵树、兔宝宝、东鹏控股、蒙娜丽莎。水泥错峰停产加强：水泥行业需 求仍在寻底过程中，但企业错峰停产力度加强，水泥价格围绕行业平均不 赚钱波动，关注成本优势定价的龙头海螺水泥、出海标的华新水泥。玻纤 底部已现，关注风电纱涨价：玻纤价格战结束，价格已触底回升，同时风 电招标量快速增长，2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Add" for the industry [3] Core Viewpoints - The rapid development of AI is driving operators to optimize their capital expenditures, with a clear trend towards structural optimization. Despite a decline in overall capital expenditures, investments in computing power are expected to grow or remain stable, indicating the operators' commitment to AI [1][21] - Cloud computing is experiencing a new growth curve catalyzed by AI, significantly enhancing its application potential. The roles of the three major operators in cloud infrastructure are being redefined as they deepen their investments in cloud construction [2][23] Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on the computing power sector, particularly in optical communication and related companies such as Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng. It also highlights the importance of operators like China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom in this space [8][14][31] Industry Trends - The report notes a significant slowdown in 5G user growth across the three major operators, with a total of approximately 1.2 billion 5G users. The average revenue per user (ARPU) is also declining, indicating intensified competition among operators [7][26] Operator Capital Expenditure - China Mobile plans to invest CNY 37.3 billion in computing power for 2025, accounting for 25% of its capital expenditures. China Telecom's computing power investment is projected to reach CNY 22 billion, a 22% increase year-on-year. China Unicom expects a 28% increase in computing power investment, exceeding CNY 18 billion [23][24][25] Market Performance - The report highlights that the optical communication index outperformed other segments within the communication sector, with a notable increase in stock prices for key players in the computing power industry [17][20] Key Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies within the computing power supply chain, including optical communication leaders and related technology firms, as they are expected to benefit from the ongoing AI wave [8][31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The current coal price adjustment has been ongoing for nearly four years since the historical peak in Q4 2021, with prices generally returning to pre-increase levels. The market is well aware of the price decline, indicating that the bottom may be near. It is essential to understand the industry's fundamental attributes and maintain confidence and determination [3]. - As of April 2025, Australian coal exports totaled 104 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.1%. The decline in exports is attributed to the shutdown of Australian coking coal production, which has led to rising prices [2][6]. - Domestic coal companies are increasingly facing losses, with over half (54.8%) reporting losses as of March 2025. This trend may lead to both passive and active production cuts as prices continue to decline [3]. Summary by Sections Coal Mining Exports - In the first four months of 2025, Australian coal exports decreased by 8.1% year-on-year, totaling 104 million tons. In April alone, exports were 26.53 million tons, down 3.7% year-on-year and 12.3% month-on-month [2]. Price Trends - As of May 16, 2025, coal prices showed mixed trends: Newcastle coal (6000K) was priced at $99.0 per ton (up 0.1%), while European ARA coal was at $94.5 per ton (down 2.6%) [3][35]. The report indicates that the coal price adjustment is nearing its end, with potential for recovery as production cuts may occur due to high overseas mining costs [3]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends several coal companies, including China Shenhua (601088.SH), Shaanxi Coal (601225.SH), and China Qinfa (00866.HK), all rated as "Buy." Other recommended stocks include China Coal Energy (601898.SH) and Xinjie Energy (601918.SH) [7]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the coal industry is at a critical stage of price exploration, with the potential for a rebound as the market adjusts to production cuts and changing demand dynamics [3].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 05 18 年 月 日 本周聚焦——各家银行拨备计提充足程度如何？ 一、三阶段占比及拨备计提比例 1、银行基于金融工具信用风险自初始确认后是否已显著增加或已发生信 用减值，将各笔业务划分入三个风险阶段，计提预期信用损失。 第一阶段：自初始确认后信用风险无显著增加的金融工具，需确认金融工 具未来 12 个月内的预期信用损失金额； 第二阶段：自初始确认后信用风险显著增加，但尚无客观减值证据的金融 工具，需确认金融工具在整个存续期内的预期信用损失金额； 第三阶段：在资产负债表日存在客观减值证据的金融工具，需确认金融工 具在整个存续期内的预期信用损失金额。 注 1：信用风险显著增加的标准可能包括：金融工具的违约概率上升是否 超过临界值、融资背景是否真实、逾期是否超过 30 天、是否涉及展期或 调整计息周期、是否出现重大信用风险事件以及其他表明信用风险显著增 加的情况。 注 2：对已发生减值的判定标准可能包括：金融资产逾期 90 天（不含）以 上、对发生财务困难的债务人作出正常情况不会作出的让步、债务人很可 能倒闭或进行其他财务重组、因发生重大财务困难，该 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the need for companies to strengthen their internal capabilities while actively seeking new growth avenues. It highlights three main investment themes in the liquor segment: leading brands, sustained dividends, and recovery beneficiaries [1]. - In the consumer goods sector, the focus is on identifying high-growth and strong recovery opportunities, with specific companies recommended for investment based on their growth potential and market positioning [1]. - The report notes that companies are actively exploring new growth curves while maintaining their operational advantages, reflecting a proactive approach to market changes [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections Liquor Segment - Leading brands such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu are expected to continue gaining market share. Companies like Yingjia Gongjiu and Jiansu's Jinshiyuan are highlighted for their high certainty in regional markets [1]. - Beneficiaries of recovery and increased risk appetite include Luzhou Laojiao, Shui Jing Fang, and others, indicating a diversified investment strategy [1]. Consumer Goods Segment - Companies like Salted Fish and Three Squirrels are identified for their high growth potential, while others like Qingdao Beer and Yili are expected to benefit from policy support and recovery improvements [1]. - The report mentions that major companies are launching new products to capture market trends, such as Unification Enterprises' new beverage flavors and Hai Tian's expansion into overseas markets [2][3]. Company-Specific Developments - Zhou Hei Ya is focusing on enhancing store efficiency and exploring new channels, including overseas markets, to create new growth opportunities [3]. - Hengshun Vinegar is strengthening brand marketing and expanding distribution channels, indicating a strategic approach to market penetration [3]. - Gu Yue Long Shan is expected to leverage brand value for price increases and innovate with new product lines, aligning with health trends [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Views - The domestic production of adiponitrile is accelerating, and the demand for civilian nylon is expected to be released, indicating a broad growth space in the future. Nylon 66, one of the most widely used nylon products, has a low application ratio in civilian yarns (13%), which could potentially replace the nylon 6 market if technological breakthroughs occur [1][12] - The company has successfully overcome significant technical barriers in adiponitrile production, making it the first project in China with independent intellectual property rights to produce adiponitrile on a large scale using the direct hydrogenation method [1][12] - The project is expected to benefit from the acceleration of domestic adiponitrile production and the increase in demand for civilian yarns [1][12] Summary by Sections Production Cost and Profitability - The estimated cost of producing adiponitrile is approximately 11,600 CNY per ton, with the main raw materials being butadiene, natural gas, and liquid ammonia [2][16] - The break-even price for the company's adiponitrile project is estimated at 17,700 CNY per ton at 150% capacity utilization and 19,000 CNY per ton at 100% capacity utilization [3][17] - The projected net profit for the company is expected to be 3.62 billion CNY at full capacity and 7.64 billion CNY after technical upgrades [3][19] Financial Projections - The company’s projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 6.4 billion, 7.3 billion, and 8.1 billion CNY, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.7%, 13.4%, and 11.2% [3][19] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 7.5, 6.6, and 6.0 times, respectively [3][19] Market Context - The global capacity for adiponitrile production is currently dominated by American companies, with significant reliance on imports. The domestic market is expected to shift towards local production to ensure supply chain security [1][12] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the increasing domestic demand and the potential for market share growth in the nylon 66 sector [1][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold [7]. Core Views - The easing of US-China tariffs is expected to positively impact metal demand, with a focus on the economic fundamentals following the tariff negotiations [1][2]. - Gold prices have fluctuated due to lower-than-expected US inflation and dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, indicating a potential for future price recovery depending on tariff negotiations [1][36]. - The copper market is cautious due to high tariff levels, but inventory reductions provide some support for prices [2]. - Aluminum prices are supported by low inventory levels and positive macro sentiment following substantial progress in US-China tariff talks [2]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices have been affected by a 2.3% year-on-year increase in the US CPI for April, which was lower than expected, leading to a decrease in gold prices [1]. - Powell's comments suggest a higher tolerance for inflation, which may lead to fluctuations in gold prices based on tariff negotiations [1][36]. Industrial Metals - Copper prices are under pressure due to ongoing tariff concerns, but a reduction in global copper inventory to 572,000 tons provides some support [2]. - Aluminum prices are buoyed by low inventory levels, with domestic social inventory dropping below 600,000 tons [2]. Energy Metals - Lithium prices have stabilized, with carbon lithium futures rising by 1.3% to 65,000 yuan/ton, while supply pressures are expected to persist [3]. - The lithium market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with a 9% decrease in carbon lithium production this week [3]. Key Companies to Watch - Recommended companies include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold, and others in the non-ferrous metals sector [1][2][3].

Investment Rating - Maintain "Increase" rating for the agricultural sector [4] Core Views - The recent confirmation of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus in Brazilian commercial poultry may have limited impact if it does not affect imports from other states or lead to nationwide import suspensions [11][12] - The reliance on chicken imports from Brazil is low, with only 5.5% of chicken meat being imported, primarily consisting of chicken by-products [11] - The price of lean pork has decreased to 14.63 CNY/kg, down 0.7% from the previous week, while the average wholesale price of pork has increased by 1.6% to 20.94 CNY/kg [12][13] - White feather chicken prices have dropped to 7.4 CNY/kg, a decrease of 0.7%, and chicken product prices have also fallen by 0.4% to 8.86 CNY/kg [12][24] - The approval of genetically modified varieties is expected to enhance the growth potential of industry companies [12] - The agricultural sector has underperformed the market by 1.1 percentage points this week, with a slight increase of 0.05% [8][9] Summary by Sections Livestock Farming - The price of lean pork is currently 14.63 CNY/kg, down 0.7% from last week, with a focus on leading companies with cost-effectiveness such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [12][13] - The average price of white feather chicken is 7.4 CNY/kg, down 0.7%, and the average price of chicken products is 8.86 CNY/kg, down 0.4% [12][24] - The price of meat chicken chicks is 2.85 CNY each, down 2.1% from last week [12][22] Planting and Agricultural Products - The commercialization of genetically modified varieties is expected to begin following the public announcement period, with potential for significant growth in the sector [12] Breeding Support - The volatility in agricultural product prices is increasing, and leading feed companies are expected to replace smaller firms due to their advantages in procurement and scale [12]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [4]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a global leader in mica insulation materials, with a significant market share in the electric vehicle sector, driving high growth in performance [1][2]. - The acquisition of Diz Precision aims to position the company in the robotics sector, which is expected to have substantial growth potential [3]. - The company is expanding its product offerings and entering new markets, which will further solidify its competitive advantages [2][3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Founded in 2003, the company has over 20 years of experience in high-temperature insulation mica products, primarily serving the electric vehicle, home appliance, and cable industries [1]. - The company achieved a global market share of 4.4% in mica insulation materials in 2022, with a leading position in the electric vehicle sector, capturing 27% of the market share in 2022 [1]. Financial Performance - The company has experienced rapid growth, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 33% in revenue and 63% in net profit from 2020 to 2024 [1]. - The gross margin and net margin are expected to remain high, with projections of 35% and 20.3% respectively in 2024 [1]. Market Demand and Competitive Landscape - The mica market has a broad demand potential, with the global market for mica fire-resistant insulation materials in electric vehicles expected to reach 10.4 billion yuan by 2027, growing at a CAGR of 38% from 2023 to 2027 [2]. - The company has established strong technical and customer barriers, securing partnerships with top global automotive brands such as Tesla and Volkswagen [2]. Strategic Initiatives - The acquisition of 51% of Diz Precision is aimed at enhancing the company's capabilities in the robotics sector, which is anticipated to grow significantly [3]. - The company is also expanding its product range to include lightweight safety structural components and is exploring applications in energy storage and commercial vehicles [2]. Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 327 million yuan, 465 million yuan, and 637 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 42%, 42%, and 37% [4][5].

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a rating of "Increase" [5] Core Viewpoints - The C-REITs market shows a positive trend with a 1.39% increase in the C-REITs total return index for the week ending May 16, 2025, and an 11.25% increase year-to-date [1][2] - The report highlights strong performance in the consumer infrastructure and affordable housing sectors, while the ecological and environmental protection sectors experienced a pullback [3][11] - The report suggests that the low interest rate environment and ongoing macroeconomic recovery present investment opportunities in the REITs market, emphasizing the importance of timing in secondary market investments [4] Summary by Sections REITs Index Performance - The C-REITs total return index rose by 1.39% this week, closing at 1076.8 points, while the C-REITs closing index increased by 1.24%, closing at 859 points [1][9] - Year-to-date, the C-REITs total return index has increased by 11.25%, ranking second among various indices [2][9] REITs Secondary Market Performance - The total market capitalization of listed REITs is approximately 193.25 billion, with an average market cap of 3 billion per REIT [3][11] - A total of 52 REITs increased in value, with an average weekly increase of 1.84%, while 13 REITs decreased [11] REITs Valuation Performance - The internal rate of return (IRR) for listed REITs shows a range, with the top three being 11.3% for 华夏中国交建 REIT, 10.7% for 平安广州广河 REIT, and 9% for 中金安徽交控 REIT [4] - The price-to-net asset value (P/NAV) ratio for REITs is between 0.7 and 1.8, with the highest being 1.8 for 华夏北京保障房 REIT and 中金厦门安居 REIT [4]