证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 12 28 年 月 日 建筑材料 关注需求托底及反内卷政策后续落地情况 2025 年 12 月 22 日至 12 月 26 日建筑材料板块（SW）上涨 3.64%，其 中水泥（SW）上涨 1.21%，玻璃制造（SW）上涨 5.04%，玻纤制造（SW） 上涨 10.06%，装修建材（SW）上涨 1.90%，本周建材板块相对沪深 300 超额收益+2.65%。本期建筑材料板块（SW）资金净流入额为-5.30 亿元。 【周数据总结和观点】 本周北京市优化调整住房限购政策，放宽非京籍家庭购房条件并支持多子 女家庭住房需求，本周国家发改委发表《大力推动传统产业优化提升》， 指出"十五五五时期期，材材料行业深深化给侧结结性改改，，持持给需 结协同发力，增加高端产能给侧，确保总量规模适度、给需基本平衡、产 品结性升级。根据 wind 统计，2025 年 11 月地方政府债总发行量 9126.91 亿元，发行金额环比 2025 年 10 月增长 62.8%，同比 2024 年 11 月下降 30.5%。截至目前，2025 年一般债发行规模 2.60 万亿元，同比 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the food and beverage industry [7]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the liquor industry is expected to see a full risk release by 2025, with a dual improvement in supply and demand anticipated in 2026. Short-term sales are expected to improve, particularly during the Spring Festival, while medium-term recovery in sales, pricing, and financial reports is also expected [2][4]. - The report highlights the impact of the EU's anti-subsidy measures, which are likely to accelerate domestic replacements in deep processing, particularly in the dairy sector. This is expected to create opportunities in the food sector as companies prepare for the Spring Festival [4][8]. - The beer sector is experiencing a slight decline in major markets like China and the US, but global beer consumption is projected to grow by 0.5% in 2024, indicating a potential for recovery [3]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - The report discusses the proactive measures taken by leading liquor companies to optimize supply and enhance sales channels. Notable companies like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye are focusing on product structure and market innovation [2]. - The report suggests that companies such as Luzhou Laojiao and Yanghe Brewery are well-positioned for short-term recovery due to supply improvements and strong brand positioning [2]. Beer and Beverage Sector - Global beer consumption is projected to reach approximately 19.41 billion liters in 2024, with a slight increase despite declines in major markets [3]. - The establishment of a subsidiary in Thailand by Xiangpiaopiao is noted as a strategic move to enhance overseas business development [3]. Food Sector - The report indicates that the EU's anti-subsidy measures on dairy products will likely benefit domestic producers, particularly in the context of the upcoming Spring Festival [4][8]. - Companies like Yili and Anjoy Foods are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of the market expansion driven by these policy changes [8].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 12 28 年 月 日 环保 政策定标强规范，环境监测迎量质齐升 环保监管新规接连出台，监测与治理龙头双线受益。1、生态环境部就《生 活垃圾填埋场开挖治理污染防治技术指南》征求意见，指南要求生活垃圾 填埋场在开挖治理的全流程中，必须遵循统一的技术规范，严格控制渗滤 液、恶臭气体等二次污染，并执行严格的监测与台账管理，其目的是为了 填补行业技术空白、规范操作以保障治理过程的绿色与安全。推荐关注固 废治理、环境监测等细分领域龙头标的，如高能环境、聚光科技等。2、两 部门联合发布《检验检测机构资质认定生态环境监测机构评审补充要求 （2025 年）》，政策要求生态环境监测机构必须建立防数据造假制度、配 备具备防篡改功能的专用仪器、使用全流程信息管理系统，并对监测人员 数量、专业资质及数据终身责任作出严格规定，其根本目的是确保监测数 据的准确、客观、真实和全程可追溯，以根治数据造假问题、提升环境监 测公信力。此政策直接利好于生态环境监测行业本身，推动其向专业化、 规范化升级。推荐关注皖仪科技、聚光科技等标的。 当周碳交易行情：本周（12.22-12.26） ...

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 12 26 年 月 日 量化分析报告 攻守兼备，穿越周期——华夏中证 A500ETF 基金投资价值分析 中证 A500 是适合作为风险分散的配置资产 1）中证 A500 指数未来一年预期收益为 12.9%。我们对各分项进行预 测并加总得到：未来一年中证 A500 预期收益为 12.9%，其中盈利预计有 较强支撑，贡献 8.7%的收益，估值项预测仍有 3%的上涨空间。 中证 500ESG 基准指数和中证 500 指数基日以来累计收益分别为 3.96% 和 2.42%，ESG 负面剔除后的指数超额收益显著，且年化波动率更低。 3）指数成分股：大市值、高流动性。中证 A500 指数前十大成分股龙头集 中度高，新经济与传统经济均衡配置，充分体现 A500 指数"大盘蓝筹 + 行业龙头"的编制特征。从中证 A500 指数成分股中信一级行业分布来看， 主要集中在电子、电力设备及新能源、银行、有色金属、医药等行业。中 证 A500 指数成分股在行业龙头、陆股通重仓、核心资产、基金重仓、成 交主力等概念的暴露较高，具备较好的市场流动性和较高的机构认可度。 华夏中 ...

证券研究报告 | 固定收益点评 gszqdatemark 2025 12 26 年 月 日 固定收益点评 如何看待银行承接长债指标压力，如何缓解？ 11 月中下旬以来，长债尤其是超长债大幅调整，银行可能是背后重要的抛 售力量，这与银行年末面临的久期指标约束有关。明年银行的相关指标能 否缓解，银行还有多少增配空间，本文对此展开研究。 近年来，由于银行负债端降久期、资产端拉久期，银行资负久期错配问题 加剧，部分国有行银行账簿利率风险指标或逼近监管上限。由于 2024 年 叫停"手工补息"、2025-2026 年高息定存集中到期、以及挂牌存款利率 持续下调，银行负债端整体缩久期、降成本。同时，政府债发行期限结构 不断拉长，国股行作为政府债的重要承接力量，预计资产端久期将会拉长。 这导致银行资产负债久期错配的问题加剧，2024 年，农业银行（-14.31%）、 工商银行（-14.71%）、建设银行（-14.73%）的ΔEVE/一级资本净额接 近-15%的监管上限。 当前银行账簿利率风险适用 2017 年发布的监管指引标准，2026 年大概 率将迎来调整。2016 年，巴塞尔银行监管委员会发布了关于银行账簿利 率风险的 ...

2026年 度 策略： 在下一个台阶等政策，结构和分化是主旋律 分析师 金晶 分析师 周卓君 执业证书编号：S0680522030001 执业证书编号：S0680523070006 邮箱：jinjing3@gszq.com 邮箱：zhouzhuojun@gszq.com 分析师 肖依依 分析师 夏陶 执业证书编号：S0680523080005 执业证书编号：S0680524070006 邮箱：xiaoyiyi3664@gszq.com 邮箱：xiatao@gszq.com 证券研究报告|年度策略 2025 12 25 年 月 日 打造极致专业与效率 目录 2025年基本面回顾 2025年政策回顾 2 2026年统计局指标预测 3 商业回顾与展望 4 5 2026年展望与投资建议 2 1 目录 1. 2025基本面回顾 销售总量尚未企稳，拿地热度前高后低 3 1、销售：新房+二手房成交总量尚未企稳 2、拿地：土地成交在低基数上继续萎缩，土地财政承压 3、库存：狭义库存仍在高位，相对库存去化周期创新高 4、房企：强者优势延续，困难房企压力未缓 1.1销售：2025年新房成交继续收缩，销售额已回落至2015年水平 ...

资建议： 预测公司 2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为 0.2/2.7/3.6 亿元， 同比-67%/+1469/+32%，EPS 分别为 0.08/1.31/1.73 元，当前股价对应 PE 分别为 234/15/11 倍，首次覆盖给予"买入"评级。 证券研究报告 | 首次覆盖报告 gszqdatemark 2025 12 25 年 月 日 苏文电能（300982.SZ） 执配网 EPCOS 牛耳，绘光储充一体蓝海 稀缺的配网 EPCOS 一站式服务商，中长期受益新型电力系统建设。公司 通过 1 个云平台，E（（询设设）） P（（能能造）） C（（装集成）） O（（ 资运营）和 S（（件信息））5 项专业能力，布局变电站 光伏 /风电 储能 充电桩 数字能源 电网 6 类业务板块，服务工厂企业 产业园区 公共 事业 商办中心 住宅小区 成团企业 能能电网七大用户场景。基于一 站式服务能力，公司具备快速响应速度和交付能力，在行业内技术实力突 出，口碑与知名度较高。公司当前市占率不足 1%，在国内新型电力系统 建设持续推进，配电网 资空间持续打开之际，公司作为稀缺的 EPCOS 一 站式电能服务商有望持续） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the electricity industry [1] Core Insights - In November, the total electricity consumption in China increased by 6.2% year-on-year, with a cumulative electricity consumption of 94,602 billion kilowatt-hours from January to November, reflecting a 5.2% year-on-year growth [2][9] - The growth in electricity consumption was primarily driven by the tertiary industry and urban-rural residential electricity usage, with significant contributions from the charging and battery swapping services, as well as the information transmission, software, and IT services sectors [3][15] - Electricity production in November showed steady growth, with notable increases in wind and solar energy output [4][25] Summary by Sections Electricity Consumption - In November, the national total electricity consumption reached 8,356 billion kilowatt-hours, marking a 6.2% year-on-year increase [2][9] - The first industry saw a stable growth in electricity demand, with November's consumption increasing by 7.9% year-on-year, and a cumulative growth of 10.3% from January to November [3][15] - The second industry's electricity consumption growth slowed, with a 4.4% year-on-year increase in November and a cumulative growth of 3.7% [3][15] - The third industry exhibited strong growth, with a 10.3% year-on-year increase in November, driven by significant contributions from the charging services and IT sectors [3][15] Electricity Production - In November, the industrial electricity production was 7,792 billion kilowatt-hours, reflecting a 2.7% year-on-year increase, with an average daily production of 25.97 billion kilowatt-hours [4][25] - The report highlights a shift in the production mix, with industrial coal-fired electricity experiencing a decline of 4.2%, while hydropower grew by 17.1%, and both nuclear and solar power saw accelerated growth [4][28] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend coal-fired power leaders and companies with stable electricity prices and coal-electricity integration, such as Huaneng International, Huadian International, and Datang Power [4][47] - It also recommends attention to wind and solar sectors, including Xintian Green Energy and Longyuan Power, as well as gas sector leaders like Chengran and New Hope Energy [4][47]

证券研究报告 | 首次覆盖报告 gszqdatemark 2025 12 24 年 月 日 敏实集团（00425.HK） 电池盒放量驱动业绩高增，机器人等新兴赛道打开长期成长空间 全球汽车外饰与车身结构部件领先企业，业务布局兼具深度与广度。敏实 集团深耕行业三十余年，核心业务涵盖金属饰条、塑件、铝件及新能源汽 车电池盒四大产品线。作为全球化供应商，公司的业务布局广泛，服务宝 马、奔驰、特斯拉、比亚迪等 70 余家国内外头部车企，海外收入占比从 2021 年 41%提升至 2025H1 的 65%，全球化战略推进效果显著。业务结 构持续优化，电池盒业务作为重点发展的业务，2025H1 营收占比达 27%， 跃升为第一大收入来源；铝件产品受益于汽车轻量化趋势，2020 到 2024 年营收 CAGR 为 12%，毛利率维持 30%以上。同时受益于产能利用率提 升和成本管控，公司的营收和净利润均实现较快增长。 外饰件业务稳健贡献，电池盒与结构件已成增长引擎。敏实传统业务地位 稳固，金属饰条、塑件、铝件产品类别丰富，业绩持续增长。公司凭借轻 量化与智能化双重升级打开价值空间：铝合金外饰件渗透率持续提升，相 关产品逐步 ...

Group 1: Livestock Industry - The pig industry is currently in a phase of deep losses, with supply contraction expected to continue into the first half of 2026, leading to a significant reduction in production capacity. The average pig price for 2025 is projected to be below the cost line, with quarterly estimates of 15.5 CNY/kg, 13.5 CNY/kg, 16.4 CNY/kg, and 17.7 CNY/kg, resulting in an annual average of approximately 13.4 CNY/kg [11][25][26] - The white chicken market is experiencing a cautious outlook, with a projected supply growth of less than 5% for 2026. The decline in the sales of commodity broiler chicks indicates a more conservative price expectation within the industry [30][35] - The yellow chicken sector remains stable, with production capacity not significantly affected. The prices are expected to follow trends in other protein sources, with a focus on seasonal price increases [39] - The beef market is anticipated to see a price increase due to a clear reduction in both domestic and international supply. The wholesale price of beef has been rising, reaching 66.21 CNY/kg in December, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.1% [42][70] Group 2: Agricultural Inputs and Other Sectors - The feed industry is showing signs of recovery, with a 6.6% year-on-year increase in feed production for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating improved demand from the livestock sector [71][76] - The edible mushroom sector is witnessing a rebound, particularly with the reversal of the predicament faced by enoki mushrooms and the potential growth of new products like Cordyceps [3][80] - The pet industry continues to thrive, with a notable trend towards high-end domestic products, as evidenced by the performance of brands like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. [4][63] - The natural sweetener market is expected to grow as consumer awareness of sugar reduction increases, with companies like Bailong Chuangyuan and Baolingbao positioned to benefit from this trend [4][71]