从容不迫 行情回顾（11.10-11.14）: 中信钢铁指数报收 1,999.70 点，上涨 0.83%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 1.91pct， 位列 30 个中信一级板块涨跌幅榜第 17 位。 重点领域分析: 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 11 16 年 月 日 钢铁 投资策略:本周市场指数上波动不大，但风格高低切换比较明显，传统红利 板块走强，钢铁板块近期表现也不错，今年板块涨幅已经达到 30%以上， 在申万一级行业中排名第 7。而黑色商品价格继续窄幅震荡，商品与商品 股是两类不同的资产，如果以价格上涨作为买入依据，我们可以将很多产 品历史价格和股价耦合在一起，结论并不具备可复制性。我们在此前深度 报告以重置价值测算行业部分公司处于价值低估区，具备非常强的安全边 际。行业未来存在修复的机会（详见国盛证券华菱钢铁深度报告、南钢股 份深度报告、宝钢股份深度报告、新钢股份深度报告），市场印证了我们的 判断。10 月份经济数据本周出炉，总体经济较之前进一步放缓。由于今年 财政前置，前三季度政府债净发行量达到 11.46 万亿元，已经接近全年计 划的 85%，意味着四季度财政对经 ...

Economic Overview - In October, industrial added value increased by 4.9% year-on-year, down from 6.5% in the previous period[1] - Retail sales grew by 2.9% year-on-year, slightly lower than the previous value of 3.0%[1] - From January to October, fixed asset investment decreased by 1.7%, compared to a decrease of 0.5% previously[1] External Demand - October export growth significantly declined, marking the lowest level since March due to base disturbances and falling export prices[2] - The decline in external demand is exacerbated by the misalignment of new consumer electronics product launches[3] Internal Demand - Real estate investment fell by 14.7% year-on-year, worsening from a previous decline of 13.9%[1] - Infrastructure investment showed a slight increase of 1.5%, down from 3.3% previously, while narrow infrastructure investment fell by 0.1%[1] Investment Trends - Manufacturing investment decreased by 2.7% year-on-year, down from 4.0% previously, with October showing a significant drop of 6.7%[1] - The overall investment landscape indicates a broad decline across real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing sectors[3] Consumption Patterns - Consumer spending continues to decline, with retail sales growth at 2.9%, marking five consecutive months of decline[5] - The impact of the "trade-in" policy is diminishing, particularly in sectors like home appliances and automobiles[5] Policy Outlook - Achieving the annual GDP growth target of 5% is deemed feasible, with a required growth rate of 4.4% in Q4[4] - Short-term policies are expected to intensify, focusing on accelerating existing measures and preparing for next year's economic layout[4] Employment Situation - The urban survey unemployment rate slightly decreased to 5.1%, down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous value[44] Risks - Potential risks include changes in policy strength, overseas economic conditions, and geopolitical conflicts, which could lead to unexpected outcomes[8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report explores investment opportunities in the Hong Kong bond market under the expansion of the "Southbound Connect." It analyzes the market conditions of Chinese dollar-denominated bonds and Dim Sum bonds, and points out potential investment opportunities based on factors such as interest rates, exchange rates, and credit risks [2]. Summary by Directory I. Bond "Southbound Connect" Introduction - Launched on September 24, 2021, it allows domestic investors to invest in bonds traded in the Hong Kong bond market through a connected mechanism [9]. - Initially, it only supported spot bond trading and later gradually introduced repo trading. In 2025, measures were announced to expand trading currencies and extend trading hours [10]. - Regulatory authorities have defined the current participants and trading counterparties. The scope of participants is expected to expand to include non-bank institutions such as securities firms, insurance companies, and asset management companies [11]. II. "Southbound Connect" Investment Target Situation Hong Kong Bond Market Situation - The Hong Kong bond market consists of three main segments: Hong Kong dollar, offshore RMB, and G3 currency markets. As of the end of 2024, the outstanding amounts of Hong Kong dollar bonds, offshore RMB bonds, and G3 currency bonds were 195.5 billion, 173.2 billion, and 565.6 billion US dollars respectively, with G3 currency bonds dominating the market [24]. - From 2015 to 2024, the total size of the Hong Kong bond market showed a significant upward trend, reaching HK$2.83 trillion in 2024. The Exchange Fund and the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government are the cornerstones of the market, and overseas issuers and local statutory bodies have also contributed to its growth [26]. Hong Kong Chinese Dollar-Denominated Bond Market Status - Affected by factors such as the US dollar interest rate hike, rising overseas financing costs, and changes in the credit environment, the issuance volume of Chinese dollar-denominated bonds in Hong Kong has declined significantly since 2022, with negative net financing in the past three years [32]. - As of October 30, 2025, the outstanding amount of Chinese dollar-denominated bonds traded on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and CMU was 361.5 billion US dollars, with 1,180 bonds. They are mainly concentrated in industries such as finance and energy, with coupon rates mostly between 3% - 5% and maturities mostly over 3 years [37][40]. Dim Sum Bond Market Status - The issuance volume and net financing of Dim Sum bonds have increased significantly since 2022, reflecting the promotion of RMB internationalization and the expansion of the "Southbound Connect" [43]. - As of October 29, 2025, the outstanding amount of Dim Sum bonds traded on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and CMU was 1.5666 trillion RMB, with 1,266 bonds. They are mainly concentrated in industries such as finance, real estate, and consumption, with coupon rates mostly between 3% - 5% and maturities mostly between 1 - 3 years [48][50]. III. Investment Opportunities in Chinese Dollar-Denominated Bonds - The benchmark interest rate for Chinese dollar-denominated bonds is US Treasury bonds. In the first three quarters of 2025, US Treasury bond yields fluctuated and declined in the third quarter. It is expected to remain volatile at a low level in the future [55]. - Investment-grade Chinese dollar-denominated bonds have declined with US Treasury bonds this year, and the spread has narrowed to a low level since 2024. High-yield bonds have fluctuated, and the spread is at a high percentile [57]. - Due to the continuous advancement of debt resolution policies, the spread of overseas Chinese dollar-denominated urban investment bonds has significantly compressed since mid-2024 [59]. - The spread of real estate Chinese dollar-denominated bonds has shown significant differentiation. The spread of investment-grade bonds has continued to compress, while that of non-investment-grade bonds has fluctuated at a high level [63]. - In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar has depreciated against the RMB in 2025, and the narrowing of the discount has reduced the exchange rate hedging cost, increasing the allocation value of Chinese dollar-denominated bonds [66]. - From a credit perspective, the number of defaults or extensions of local state-owned enterprises and central enterprises has decreased, and the investment strategy can focus on bonds of central and state-owned enterprises with large onshore-offshore spreads [67]. IV. Investment Opportunities in Dim Sum Bonds - The benchmark interest rate for Dim Sum bonds is offshore RMB sovereign bonds. This year, Dim Sum bonds have outperformed onshore bonds, and the spread has narrowed to about 50bp [69]. - On the supply side, due to the financing cost advantage and policy support, the issuance of Dim Sum bonds has increased in recent years, and the product structure is expected to become more diverse [71]. - On the demand side, the expansion of the "Southbound Connect" has broadened cross-border investment channels, and the strong demand of domestic institutions for overseas investment is beneficial to the secondary market performance of Dim Sum bonds. Some Dim Sum bonds still have relatively high spreads compared to onshore bonds, offering good value [71].

新兴业务增速亮眼，后续放量值得期待 公司发布 2025 年第三季度报告。2025 年前三季度公司实现营业总收入 46.30 亿元，同比增长 11.82%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润 8.00 亿元， 同比增长 12.66%；归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净利润 7.28 亿元，同比增长 9.74%。单 Q3 实现收入 14.42 亿元（同比-0.09%）， 归母净利润 1.83 亿元（同比-13.46%）。 业绩整体稳健，新兴业务增速显著，小分子基本盘稳固。公司预计全年营 业收入将实现 13%-15%增长，主要受新兴业务放量及客户交付节奏改善 驱动。前三季度经营活动产生的现金流量净额 11.44 亿元，同比增长 8.67%。新签订单保持良好增势，全年增长可期。公司在多肽、寡核苷酸、 ADC 等增量业务板块持续加大市场开拓，新签订单保持双位数增长，为后 续交付奠定支撑。从下半年待交付订单分布看，第四季度交付规模将显著 高于第三季度。 小分子基本盘稳固，多肽、ADC 等新兴业务打开增量空间。公司凭借全流 程服务能力和国际标准运营体系，持续巩固在小分子及新兴业务领域的领 先地位。随着医药行业筑底回暖，公司积 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Credit demand is generally weak, and the loan growth rate is expected to continue to slow. The bond market will maintain a volatile recovery trend, and the 10-year Treasury bond rate (old active bond) is expected to recover to the pre-adjustment level of 1.6%-1.65% by the end of the year [1][6]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Credit Situation - In October, the new credit was 22 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28 billion yuan, and the new credit scale has decreased year-on-year for four consecutive months. Except for bill financing, the new scale of medium and long-term loans for residents and enterprises decreased year-on-year to varying degrees, and short-term corporate loans were the same as the previous value [1][9]. - In terms of corporate credit, the new corporate credit in October was 35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22 billion yuan, mainly due to bill financing. The new medium and long-term corporate loans were 3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14 billion yuan; short-term corporate loans were -19 billion yuan, the same as the previous year; bill financing was 50.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.12 billion yuan [2][9]. - In terms of household loans, the new household loans in October were -36.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52.04 billion yuan in reduction. The new medium and long-term household loans were -7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18 billion yuan in reduction; short-term household loans were -28.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.56 billion yuan in reduction. Short-term loans have decreased year-on-year for four consecutive months, and real estate sales have continued to decline since mid-October, indicating weak social terminal demand [2][9]. Social Financing Situation - The growth rate of social financing further declined. In October, the new social financing was 81.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 59.71 billion yuan. The year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5%, 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous month. The issuance of government bonds was stable, with a new scale of 48.93 billion yuan, a month-on-month decrease of 70 billion yuan and a year-on-year decrease of 56.02 billion yuan [3][13]. - Assuming that 1 trillion yuan of next year's issuance quota is issued in the fourth quarter of this year, it is estimated that government bonds from November to December will still decrease year-on-year. By the end of the year, the social financing growth rate may drop to about 8.3% [3][13]. Money Supply Situation - In October, the year-on-year growth rate of M1 dropped from 7.2% to 6.2%, partly due to the base effect and partly related to the outflow of household deposits. The two-year compound growth rate of M1 in October was 1.85%, basically the same as the previous value. The year-on-year growth rate of M2 was 8.2%, 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous month [4][17]. Deposit and Loan Situation - In October, new deposits were 61 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1 billion yuan. The stock index broke through 4,000 points on October 29, and household and corporate deposits may have flowed to non-bank institutions. Household deposits decreased by 1.34 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 770 billion yuan in reduction; corporate deposits decreased by 1.09 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 355.3 billion yuan in reduction; non-bank deposits increased by 1.85 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 770 billion yuan [5][19]. - The overall deposit growth rate in October was 8.0% year-on-year, the same as the previous month, while the loan growth rate dropped slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 6.5%. The gap between deposit and loan growth rates widened to 1.5 percentage points, indicating a continued asset shortage [5][19]. Bond Market Situation - The broad-spectrum interest rate continued to decline, and the bond market continued to recover in a volatile manner. The year-on-year growth rates of social financing, M1, and M2 all declined in October, and household credit decreased, indicating a weak recovery in the current fundamentals. The bond market is expected to maintain a volatile recovery trend, and the interest rate is expected to decline more smoothly in the second half of the fourth quarter [6][21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the media industry [8] Core Insights - The media sector has shown significant growth in revenue and profit in the first three quarters of 2025, with total revenue reaching 460.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 33.92 billion yuan, up 40.1% [1][14] - The gaming sector has particularly excelled, with revenue growth of 28.3% year-on-year, driven by a 30.8% increase in overseas revenue [2][58] - The overall profitability of the media sector has improved, with gross profit margins and net profit margins increasing across various sub-sectors [24][37] Summary by Sections Overall Performance - The media sector's revenue for Q1-Q3 2025 was 460.34 billion yuan, with a net profit of 33.92 billion yuan, marking significant year-on-year growth [1][14] - Q3 2025 alone saw revenues of 158.79 billion yuan and net profits of 10.98 billion yuan, reflecting a 7.1% and 47.2% increase respectively [1][24] Gaming Sector - The gaming sector achieved revenue of 78.69 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, a 28.3% increase year-on-year, with net profit soaring by 94.0% to 12.65 billion yuan [2][58] - The gross profit margin for the gaming sector improved to 69.7%, and the net profit margin rose to 16.1% [2] Internet Sector - The internet sector reported revenue of 82.26 billion yuan, down 6.6% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 41.6% to 2.90 billion yuan [3] - The sector's gross profit margin was 17.5%, showing a year-on-year improvement [3] Advertising Sector - The advertising sector's revenue reached 131.80 billion yuan, up 7.7% year-on-year, with net profit increasing by 1.2% to 5.35 billion yuan [4] - The sector's operating cash flow saw a significant increase of 229.4% [4] Film and Television Production - The film sector generated revenue of 15.737 billion yuan, an 18.81% increase year-on-year, with net profit rising by 212.87% to 0.981 billion yuan [5] - The sector is expected to benefit from new policies and the growth of AI-driven content [5] Cinema Operations - The cinema sector reported revenue of 16.853 billion yuan, a 2.72% increase year-on-year, with net profit soaring by 242.91% to 1.135 billion yuan [6] - The sector's performance was bolstered by strong summer box office results [6] Publishing and Reading - The publishing sector's revenue was 101.499 billion yuan, down 7.83% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 17.53% to 8.694 billion yuan [7] - The sector is undergoing digital transformation, which is expected to drive future growth [7] Valuation - The media industry's valuation stands at 29x, which is considered low compared to historical levels [48]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Minute Herding Effect Factor Cluster **Construction Idea**: Focus on the trading behavior of followers after significant actions by "trend funds" using minute-level data [13][14][18] **Construction Process**: 1. **Event Identification**: Detect actions of trend funds through anomalies in volume, price changes, volatility, and price-volume correlation [13][14] 2. **Factor Definition**: Measure herding strength by analyzing post-event price, volume, price-volume correlation, and other metrics [14][18] 3. **Data Frequency**: Use minute-level data to identify events and define factors [14][18] **Evaluation**: Effective in capturing herding behavior at the minute level [18] - **Model Name**: Tick-by-Tick Herding Effect Factor Cluster **Construction Idea**: Apply discrete factor definitions directly to tick-by-tick data to capture herding effects [1][11][20] **Construction Process**: 1. **Event Identification**: Identify liquidity shock events using tick-by-tick order and trade data, introducing the concept of "aggressiveness" for orders [21][22][25] 2. **Factor Definition**: Analyze post-event metrics such as order volume, trade volume, imbalance indicators, and price-volume correlation [30][31][61] 3. **Factor Production**: Generate approximately 20,000 factors, retaining the top 50 based on performance and low correlation [63][84] **Evaluation**: Demonstrates strong predictive power with annual ICIR values exceeding 2 [63][84] - **Model Name**: Tick-by-Tick Herding Effect Composite Factor **Construction Idea**: Combine the top 10 factors with the highest information ratio into a composite factor [67][85] **Construction Process**: 1. Select the top 10 factors based on information ratio from the tick-by-tick factor cluster [67][85] 2. Equally weight these factors to create the composite factor [67][85] **Evaluation**: Highly effective with robust performance metrics, even after neutralizing common style and industry factors [67][71][85] Model Backtesting Results - **Minute Herding Effect Composite Factor**: - Monthly IC Mean: 0.085 - Annual ICIR: 3.18 - Monthly RankIC Mean: 0.116 - Annual RankICIR: 4.10 - Annual Return: 41.59% - Annual Volatility: 12.56% - Information Ratio: 3.31 - Monthly Win Rate: 82.91% - Maximum Drawdown: 10.06% [18] - **Tick-by-Tick Herding Effect Factor Cluster**: - Annual ICIR Absolute Value: >2 for all 50 factors [63][65] - Example Factor (Factor 16): - Monthly IC Mean: 0.057 - Annual ICIR: 2.82 - Monthly RankIC Mean: 0.072 - Annual RankICIR: 3.01 - Annual Return: 25.86% - Annual Volatility: 9.11% - Information Ratio: 2.84 - Monthly Win Rate: 76.92% - Maximum Drawdown: 6.38% [64][65][66] - **Tick-by-Tick Herding Effect Composite Factor**: - Monthly IC Mean: 0.080 - Annual ICIR: 3.49 - Monthly RankIC Mean: 0.101 - Annual RankICIR: 3.74 - Annual Return: 44.26% - Annual Volatility: 10.90% - Information Ratio: 4.06 - Monthly Win Rate: 89.74% - Maximum Drawdown: 10.66% [67][85] - **Pure Tick-by-Tick Herding Effect Composite Factor** (Neutralized for Style and Industry): - Monthly IC Mean: 0.044 - Annual ICIR: 3.33 - Monthly RankIC Mean: 0.046 - Annual RankICIR: 3.03 - Annual Return: 19.53% - Annual Volatility: 6.36% - Information Ratio: 3.07 - Monthly Win Rate: 78.63% - Maximum Drawdown: 5.13% [71][85] Index Enhancement Portfolio Performance - **CSI 300 Index Enhancement Portfolio**: - Excess Annual Return: 8.89% - Tracking Error: 3.50% - Information Ratio: 2.54 - Monthly Win Rate: 77.78% - Maximum Drawdown: 2.96% [75][86] - **CSI 500 Index Enhancement Portfolio**: - Excess Annual Return: 13.46% - Tracking Error: 5.31% - Information Ratio: 2.54 - Monthly Win Rate: 79.49% - Maximum Drawdown: 5.15% [78][86] - **CSI 1000 Index Enhancement Portfolio**: - Excess Annual Return: 17.23% - Tracking Error: 4.78% - Information Ratio: 3.61 - Monthly Win Rate: 84.62% - Maximum Drawdown: 4.14% [80][86]

证券研究报告 | 固定收益点评 gszqdatemark 2025 11 13 年 月 日 固定收益点评 退名单后的城投有何变化？ "一揽子化债"周年成效显著，多地官宣隐性债务清零。2025 年以来，各 地区隐性债务"清零"的官宣进入密集期，同时，城投平台退出名单的节 奏也显著加快。据不完全统计，截至 2025 年 10 月 30 日，全国已有 70 个 地区通过官方渠道宣布实现隐性债务清零。从行政层级看，包括 11 个地 市级和 59 个区县级单位，区县级成为当前化债的主战场。 融资平台数量压降超七成，有哪些特征？城投平台存量隐性债务清退速度 明显加快。江苏省退出数量居全国首位，且以区县级、非发债平台为主体。 推测当下化债的总体路径是优先清理债务关系简单、市场影响小的平台。 根据超 7 成的融资平台实现退出的比重，推算部分省份的区县级城投的隐 性债务或已被化解大半，下一阶段"退名单"工作的主战场，或集中在层 级更高的发债主体。 从资产负债变化看城投转型方向。"退名单"本身并非新增发债的充分条 件，多数平台并未立即利用债券市场进行大规模融资扩张。但是退出名单 确实为新增流动资金贷款创造了更有利的条件，商业银行 ...

Group 1: Macro Insights - The report indicates a continuation of the previous monetary policy stance, emphasizing "implementing a moderately loose monetary policy" and "strengthening the consistency of macro policy orientation" [3] - New changes include a focus on "doing a good job in counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments" and enhancing the central bank's system to build a robust monetary policy framework [3] - The report discusses the relationship between financial total indicators and the evolution of monetary and base money, highlighting the importance of maintaining reasonable interest rate relationships [4] Group 2: Industry Performance - The report highlights the performance of various industries, with the top performers in the last year being the comprehensive sector at 50.6%, followed by banking at 19.2% and electric equipment at 31.8% [1] - Conversely, the defense and military industry showed a decline of -5.6% over the last month, while the automotive sector experienced a -2.9% change [1] Group 3: Company Focus - Suotong Development - Suotong Development is identified as the world's largest commercial prebaked anode supplier, with significant cost advantages, achieving a cost reduction of 816 RMB/ton compared to peers in the first half of 2025 [6] - The company is focusing on lithium resources and has successfully industrialized lithium extraction technology from aluminum industrial waste, positioning itself for growth in the lithium battery sector [6] - The report notes that the domestic prebaked anode production growth is slowing due to capacity constraints in electrolytic aluminum, prompting the company to accelerate its overseas expansion [6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for investment [6]. Core Insights - The company is the world's largest commercial prebaked anode supplier, with a dual-driven strategy of "prebaked anode + negative electrode" [1][14]. - The company has achieved significant cost reductions in prebaked anodes, with a cost of 3,573 RMB per ton in the first half of 2025, which is 816 RMB lower than the industry average [2]. - The company is focusing on lithium resources and has successfully implemented lithium extraction technology from aluminum industrial solid waste, establishing a comprehensive material system for solid-state batteries [2][3]. - The overseas market for prebaked anodes is expected to expand, with projected new aluminum electrolysis capacity of 1,272 million tons from 2025 to 2027, leading to increased demand for prebaked anodes [3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has developed a high-end carbon material product supply and service system, focusing on green energy supply integrated with wind, solar, and hydrogen [1][14]. - As of July 2025, the company has a prebaked anode production capacity of 3.46 million tons, with plans to reach approximately 5 million tons by the end of 2025 [1][14]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 15,311 million RMB in 2023 to 20,893 million RMB in 2027, with a CAGR of 23.8% [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase significantly from -723 million RMB in 2023 to 1,596 million RMB in 2027 [5]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from -1.45 RMB in 2023 to 3.21 RMB in 2027 [5]. Market Dynamics - The demand for prebaked anodes is expected to grow steadily due to the increasing production of electrolytic aluminum, with a projected increase in demand of 572 million tons from overseas markets [3][21]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the rising concentration in the prebaked anode industry, as leading companies enjoy enhanced advantages [3][21]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively expanding its lithium battery material segment, with a focus on solid-state battery materials and advanced negative electrodes [2][3]. - The company has established a demonstration line capable of processing 1,000 tons of aluminum solid waste annually for lithium extraction [2].