证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 12 21 年 月 日 交通运输 关注元旦航旅出行预定数据与委内瑞拉油轮进展 周观点：航旅纵横大数据显示，截至 12 月 17 日，元旦假期国内、跨境航线 机票预订量同比分别增长 46%、18%；16 日，ICE 布油收 58.84 美元（盘中 最低 58.72 美元），为 5 月来首次。继续看好"扩内需"及"反内卷"下航空 板块中长期景气度，在油汇环境友好环境下航司盈利有望不断改善。基于周期 视角，在制裁趋严、OPEC+增产逐步反馈到出口的背景下，行业周期逻辑渐 明，可关注板块回调中的布局机会，重点关注招商轮船、中远海能 H/A。 行情回顾：本周交通运输板块行业指数上涨 2.04%，跑赢上证指数 2.01 个百 分点（上证指数上涨 0.03%）。从申万交通运输行业三级分类看，涨幅前三名 的板块分别为航空运输、跨境物流、公交，涨幅分别为 6.84%、3.10%、2.82%； 仅公路货运板块下跌，跌幅为-1.76%。 出行：航旅纵横大数据显示，截至 12 月 17 日，元旦假期国内、跨境航线机 票预订量同比分别增长 46%、18%。继续看好"扩内需 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 gszqdatemark 2025 12 21 年 月 日 通信 AI 走向太空：商业航天+太空算力 近期 Rocket Lab（RKLB）股价大幅上涨，我们认为，其背后反映的是资本市场对 商业航天成本曲线拐点的重新定价。在发射频次提升、单位运载成本持续下降的 背景下，围绕低轨与深空的应用场景正加速从"可行性验证"走向"工程化落地"。 我们认为：商业航天是决定太空算力能否成立的核心成本变量，太空算力是商业 航天释放价值弹性的关键应用场景。 一、为什么算力要"上天"：获取不受约束的能源 算力扩张的核心瓶颈正从芯片供给转向能源约束。超大规模 AIDC 建设带来的电力 需求呈指数级增长，未来单一训练集群功率需求或达数 GW 量级，超出现有电网 与发电体系的承载能力。美国部分核心数据中心区域电力接入排期长达数年，算 力建设节奏受到实质性限制。同时百万卡级集群下散热需求同步抬升，单位算力 用水成本提升，能源问题（电+水+土地）成为算力扩张的"硬约束"。 算力上天是能源获取路径的重构。晨昏轨道等特殊轨道可实现近乎全天候太阳能 获取，且不受土地、环保及电网接入限制，具备稳定可持续的能源供给力；同 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 12 21 年 月 日 纺织服饰 周专题：Nike FY2026Q2 业绩发布，大中华区继续推进库存去化 【本周专题】 Nike FY2026Q2 业绩发布，大中华区继续推进库存去化。Nike 披露 FY2026Q2 季报（25 年 9 月～25 年 11 月），报表层面公司营收同比增 长 1%至 124 亿美元，货币中性基础上同比持平（直营下降 9%，批发增 长 8%），由于北美地区关税加高以及大中华区库存减值等因素影响，毛 利率同比下降 3pcts 至 40.6%，净利润同比下降 32%至 8 亿美元。截至 2025 年 11 月末，公司库存同比下降 3%至 77 亿美元，目前北美、 EMEA 市场已经回归正常，大中华区、部分亚太地区以及匡威业务库存问 题仍需要解决。Nike 预计 FY2026Q3 收入下降低单位数，其中北美地区 将实现适度增长，大中华区的销售表现预计同 Q2 相似。 分地区来看，北美&EMEA 地区库存健康，大中华区短期销售承压同时 库存去化进行中。 增持（维持） 行业走势 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the liquid cooling industry, including Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and Yingweike, among others [10]. Core Insights - The liquid cooling industry is transitioning from a phase driven by expectations to one focused on performance realization, marked by the mass production of NVIDIA's GB300 and the upcoming Vera Rubin platform [1][19]. - The market is expected to see a significant shift as high-power cabinets (100kW+) become the norm, with major companies like AWS and Meta adopting liquid cooling solutions for their self-developed ASICs starting in 2026 [2][20]. - The competitive landscape is evolving from component-level competition to a focus on comprehensive system capabilities, emphasizing the importance of integrated thermal management systems [3][21]. Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on the computing power sector, particularly in optical communication and liquid cooling, highlighting companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Yingweike as key players [24][13]. Industry Trends - The liquid cooling industry is entering a second development phase characterized by confirmed orders and capacity realization, with a strong emphasis on system integration and operational capabilities [6][22]. - The competitive focus has shifted to complete thermal management systems, increasing customer reliance on solution providers [3][21]. Key Companies and Recommendations - Recommended companies include Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and Yingweike, which are positioned to benefit from the industry's growth and the shift towards liquid cooling solutions [10][24]. - The report also highlights the importance of upstream and downstream partnerships within the liquid cooling supply chain, indicating a trend towards comprehensive solutions rather than standalone components [23][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4] Core Insights - The report emphasizes that there is significant potential for high-quality development in China's real estate sector, driven by both rigid and improvement housing demands. The urbanization rate for permanent residents is projected to reach 67% by 2024, while the registered population urbanization rate is below 50%, indicating ongoing housing demand [11][12] - A new model for real estate development is being proposed, focusing on controlling supply, revitalizing existing stock, and encouraging the transformation of real estate companies. This includes reforms in development, financing, and sales systems to facilitate a smooth transition from old to new models [12][4] - The report highlights that the real estate sector serves as an early economic indicator, suggesting that investing in real estate stocks is akin to investing in economic trends. The focus remains on first-tier and select second-tier cities, which are expected to perform better in terms of sales [4][12] Summary by Sections Central Economic Work Conference Insights - The central government outlines the need for high-quality development in real estate, addressing both rigid and improvement demands. The report notes that many urban residents are still unsatisfied with their housing conditions, indicating a strong potential for improvement demand [11][12] Market Review - The report notes that the Shenwan Real Estate Index decreased by 0.4% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.13 percentage points, ranking 24th among 31 Shenwan primary industries. A total of 71 stocks rose, while 40 fell [13][4] New and Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the latest week, 30 cities recorded new housing transaction areas of 208.7 million square meters, a 19.9% increase month-on-month but a 42.7% decrease year-on-year. First-tier cities accounted for 54.1 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 14.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 36.9% [24][26] - For second-hand housing, 14 sample cities saw a total transaction area of 200.4 million square meters, a 2.0% increase month-on-month but a 24.8% decrease year-on-year [30] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on real estate-related stocks due to the anticipated policy support and the improving competitive landscape. Key stocks to watch include major developers and companies involved in property management and brokerage services [4][12]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 12 21 年 月 日 电力设备 东方电缆获海外 19 亿元海缆订单，宁德时代发布"船 -岸-云"一体化方案 光伏：多晶硅报价上调，电池大规模锁仓挺价。据安泰科统计，本周多晶硅 n 型复投料成交 价格区间为 4.9-5.5 万元/吨，成交均价为 5.32 万元/吨，环比持平。n 型颗粒硅成交价格区 间为 5.0-5.1 万元/吨，成交均价为 5.05 万元/吨，环比持平。本周大多数多晶硅企业均将新 单报价上调至约 6.5 万元/吨以上。硅料报价上调的核心动力在于：业内普遍预期 2026 年一 季度末终端需求有望好转，而 1-2 月份作为关键过渡期，保持产业链价格体系和库存的稳定 至关重要。此时上调报价，主要是向市场传递坚决稳价的信号，为下游硅片、电池片环节的 价格企稳提供底部支撑。据 InfoLink Consulting，本周 N 型电池片价格皆出现上涨：183N、 210RN 与 210N 均价全面上涨至每瓦 0.3 元人民币，183N、210RN 与 210N 价格区间分别为 每瓦 0.285-0.3、0.28-0.3 与 0.285-0. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the C-REITs sector [6] Core Insights - The C-REITs secondary market continues to show weakness, with the overall market experiencing a decline. The report highlights the ongoing challenges in the warehousing and logistics REIT segment [1][11] - The report suggests that the low interest rate environment in 2025 presents an opportunity for REIT market allocation, emphasizing three main investment strategies: focusing on policy themes, recognizing the value of weak-cycle assets, and monitoring the expansion of REITs alongside new issuances [3][11] Summary by Sections REITs Index Performance - The CSI REITs total return index fell by 2.85% this week, closing at 999.2 points. The CSI REITs closing index decreased by 3.06%, ending at 773.2 points. Other indices such as the CSI 300 and Hang Seng also experienced declines [1][9] - Year-to-date, the CSI REITs total return index has increased by 3.24%, while the closing index has decreased by 2.08% [2][9] C-REITs Secondary Market Performance - The secondary market for C-REITs has continued its downward trend, with a total market capitalization of approximately 212.36 billion yuan and an average market cap of about 2.7 billion yuan per REIT. Out of the listed REITs, only 2 saw an increase, while 76 experienced declines, averaging a weekly drop of 2.6% [2][11] - The performance of various REIT sectors this week includes declines in warehousing logistics (-1.62%), industrial parks (-1.92%), and transportation infrastructure (-4.65%) [11] REITs Valuation Performance - The internal rate of return (IRR) for listed REITs shows significant differentiation, with the top three being Ping An Guangzhou Guanghe REIT (10.9%), Huaxia China Communications Construction REIT (10.2%), and E Fund Guangkai Industrial Park REIT (9.2%) [3] - The price-to-net asset value (P/NAV) ratio for REITs ranges from 0.7 to 1.7, with the highest being Jiashi Wumei Consumption REIT at 1.7 and the lowest being Huaxia China Communications Construction REIT at 0.7 [3]

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for several construction companies, highlighting their potential for high returns based on expected dividend yields and low valuations [9][32]. Core Insights - The current policy environment is driving an increase in insurance capital allocation to the stock market, with a notable acceleration in Q3 this year. Insurance capital is favoring construction stocks with high ROE, high dividend yields, and low valuations, particularly focusing on companies like China Electric Power Construction, China State Construction, and Sichuan Road and Bridge [1][2][14]. - It is estimated that the construction sector will receive an additional allocation of 28.6 billion yuan by 2026, representing 3.5% of the free float market value. Key A-share stocks recommended include Sichuan Road and Bridge (6.3% yield), Jianghe Group (6.5%), and others, while H-share stocks include China State Construction International (7.2%) and China Communications Construction (6.0%) [1][8][32]. Summary by Sections Insurance Capital Trends - As of Q3 2025, the total balance of insurance capital in China reached 37.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%. The allocation to stocks and funds was 3.6 trillion and 2.0 trillion yuan, respectively, accounting for 15.5% of total investments, with a significant increase noted in Q3 [2][22]. - The top three construction stocks held by insurance capital are China Electric Power Construction, China State Construction, and Sichuan Road and Bridge, which together account for 75% of the insurance capital's construction sector holdings [2][22]. Expected Capital Allocation - The projected allocation of insurance capital to the construction sector is estimated at 50.8 billion yuan in 2025 and 79.4 billion yuan in 2026, with an incremental increase of 28.6 billion yuan in 2026 [3][28]. - The overall allocation ratio for the construction sector is expected to rise from 1.31% in 2025 to 1.60% in 2026, driven by the sector's attractive dividend yield compared to other sectors [3][28]. Recommended Stocks - Key A-share stocks with expected dividend yields over 5% include Sichuan Road and Bridge (6.3%), Jianghe Group (6.5%), and others. H-share stocks include China State Construction International (7.2%) and China Communications Construction (6.0%) [1][29][32]. - The report also highlights semiconductor cleanroom leaders such as Yaxiang Integration and Shenghui Integration, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing AI investment wave [1][8][32].

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 gszqdatemark 2025 12 21 年 月 日 中国神华（601088.SH） 千亿资产收购方案落地，黑金航母扩容再启航 公司发布《发行股份及支付现金购买资产并募集配套资金暨关联交易报告书》 公告。中国神华拟通过发行 A 股股份及支付现金的方式购买国家能源集团持 有的国源电力 100%股权、新疆能源 100%股权、化工公司 100%股权、乌海 能源 100%股权、平庄煤业 100%股权、神延煤炭 41%股权、晋神能源 49% 股权、包头矿业 100%股权、航运公司 100%股权、煤炭运销公司 100%股权、 港口公司 100%股权，并以支付现金的方式购买西部能源持有的内蒙建投 100%股权。 ➢ 交易对价：最终交易价款 1335.98 亿元，其中现金对价 935.2 亿元， 发行股份对价 400.8 亿元，发行股份的价格为 29.4 元/股； 业务体量显著提升。通过本次交易， 中国神华煤炭保有资源量将提升至 684.9 亿吨，增长率达；煤炭可采储量将提升至 64.72% 345 亿吨，增长率达 97.71%； 煤炭产量将提升至 5.12 亿吨，增长率达 56.57%；发 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业策略 gszqdatemark 2025 12 19 年 月 日 钢铁 人间正道是沧桑—2026 年度策略 引子：宏观研究体系是投资体系中最重要的环节，我们所有经历的一切都 是在宏观经济这个大背景框架下运行的齿轮。只不过很多周期很长以至于 我们不易察觉，有些距离感以后才能看清楚一些事情的轮廓。当今年一连 串事件冲击后，事实证明其实以前很多担忧都是过虑了。社会认知开始反 思，过去两三年一度流行的"中国经济的日本叙事"论调随之破产。经过 工业化成熟后的转型蜕变，崭新的中国故事也将绽放光芒。新的叙事核心 将是这片热土上创新不断，工业制造这个基座大模型全球唯一，这不仅能 源源不断催生新的投资机会，更有能力在产业的新陈代谢中保持活力。一 切都是时代的过客，绝大部分股票都会服从于时代背景下的资产价格周期 之中，不要奢望某些公司能挣脱烙印，在真正的投资中，能脱离市场真正 走出独立行情的企业是极小概率的事情。如今当大的时代叙事被扭转后， 资本市场新的发展阶段我们需要做的就是如何让具体的投资策略落地； 回归"初心"：股票估值就像钟摆一样，一次次从低估走向高估，又从高 估走向低估。成熟的交易体系首先就是要建 ...