GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES

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小商品城(600415):半年报业绩符合预期,AI及数币核心场景地位确立
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-09-01 08:50
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 77.13 billion yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.99%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 16.91 billion yuan, up 16.78% year-on-year [1]. - The trade service revenue saw a significant increase of 43.16%, contributing to a substantial rise in operating cash flow [1]. - The company is positioned as a core beneficiary of the digital RMB in cross-border transactions, with a cross-border payment amount exceeding 2.5 billion USD, reflecting a growth of over 47% [4]. Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company achieved a net cash flow from operating activities of 12.68 billion yuan, primarily due to increased cash receipts from the Yiwu Global Digital Trade Center [1]. - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are expected to reach 207.17 billion yuan, 264.87 billion yuan, and 318.70 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 41.27 billion yuan, 53.81 billion yuan, and 67.40 billion yuan [9]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.75 yuan, with a projected net profit margin of 19.9% [11]. Market Dynamics - Yiwu's total import and export value reached 4,058.3 billion yuan in H1 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 25%, with exports contributing significantly to this growth [2]. - The company has leveraged AI technology to enhance its platform, achieving over 1 billion visits, which indicates strong user engagement and market acceptance [3]. - The company is actively expanding into emerging markets, with notable growth in trade with Africa, Latin America, ASEAN, and the EU [2].
建发股份(600153):房地产销售投资增长,供应链业务稳健经营
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-09-01 08:44
证券研究报告 | 半年报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 09 01 年 月 日 建发股份(600153.SH) 房地产销售投资增长,供应链业务稳健经营 事件:公司 2025 年 8 月 29 日发布 2025 年半年度报告。 受家居商场以及房地产业务影响,上半年业绩同比下滑。公司 2025 年上 半年实现营业收入 3153 亿元,同比减少 1.2%,归母净利润 8.4 亿元,同 比减少 29.9%;扣非归母净利润 6.7 亿元,同比减少 20.4%。分业务来 看:(1)房地产业务实现营业收入 441 亿元,同比减少 13.8%;毛利率 13.3%,同比提升 0.2pct;归母净利润 0.1 亿元,同比减少 1.4 亿元。其 中建发房产和联发集团分别贡献归母净利润 5.2 亿元和-5.1 亿元,分别计 提存货跌价准备 3.8 和 2.3 亿元;(2)供应链运营业务实现营收 2678 亿 元,同比增长 1.6%;归母净利润 14.2 亿元,同比基本持平;(3)家居商 场运营业务实现营收 33.4 亿元,同比降低 21%;贡献归母净利润-5.9 亿 元,亏损主要因为商场租金增长未达预期,导致投资性房地产公 ...
九阳股份(002242):内销表现优于外销,盈利水平有待恢复
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-09-01 08:43
证券研究报告 | 半年报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 09 01 年 月 日 事件:公司发布 2025 年半年度报告。公司 2025H1 实现营业收入 39.9 亿元,同比-9.1%;实现归母净利润 1.2 亿元,同比-30.0%。 扣非归母净利润 1.9 亿元,同比-11.5%。单季度来看,2025Q2 实 现营收 19.9 亿元,同比-14.4%;归母净利润 0.2 亿元,同比-53.2%; 扣非归母净利润 0.8 亿元,同比-6.2%。 食品加工机&炊具有所增长,外销下滑较多。 调整后主营业务数据:1)分产品:25H1 食品加工机/营养煲/西式 电器分别实现营收 14.3/18.4/8.5 亿元,同比+13.6%/+4.7%/- 10.0% 。 毛 利 率 同 比 -0.4pct/-0.04pct/-0.2pct 至 33.5%/20.2%/27.0%。 2)分区域:25H1 境内/外业务分别实现营收 35.6/8.3 亿元,同比 +4.7%/-9.7%。毛利率同比+1.0pct/-3.8pct 至 31.3%/6.4%。 九阳股份(002242.SZ) 内销表现优于外销,盈利水平有待恢复 ...
C-REITs周报:估值修复,首单外资消费C-REIT获批-20250901
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-09-01 08:43
本年中证 REITs 全收益指数涨幅为 10.90%。截至 8.29,本年中证 REITs (收盘)指数涨幅为 7.26%,中证 REITs 全收益指数涨幅为 10.90%。本 年沪深 300/恒生/中债十年期国债/房地产(申万)/恒生地产建筑业/高速 公路((申万)指数分别上涨14.28%/上涨25.01%/下跌1.11%/上涨3.34%/ 上涨 17.71%/下跌 10.23%。其中恒生指数本年涨幅最高,REITs 全收益 指数排行第 4。 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 09 01 年 月 日 房地产 C-REITs 周报——估值修复,首单外资消费 C-REIT 获批 REITs 指数表现 本周中证 REITs 全收益指数上涨 1.06%。截至 8.29,本周(8.22-8.29, 下同)中证 REITs(收盘)指数上涨 1.06%,收于 846.9 点;中证 REITs 全收益指数上涨 1.06%,收于 1073.3 点。本周沪深 300/恒生/中债十年 期国债/房地产((申万)/恒生地产建筑业/高速公路((申万)指数分别上涨 2.71%/下跌 1.03%/下跌 0.3 ...
阿里巴巴-W(09988):即时零售打造协同,阿里云望持续提速
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-09-01 07:05
证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 08 31 年 月 日 阿里巴巴-W(09988.HK) 即时零售打造协同,阿里云望持续提速 阿里巴巴发布 2025 年 6 月季度业绩。阿里巴巴 FY2026Q1 财季(截至 2025 年 6 月季度)录得总收入 2476.52 亿元,同比增长 2%。本季 non- GAAP 归母净利润约 353 亿元,同比减少 12%。 按业务条线看:1)中国电商录得 1401 亿元收入,同比增长 10%;经调 整 EBITA 约 384 亿元,同比下降 21%。其中,即时零售收入 148 亿元, 同比增长 12%,主要来自"淘宝闪购"订单增长。电商收入 1186 亿元, 同比增长 9%,主要来自 take rate 提升、物流收入增长。2)国际商业录 得 347 亿元收入,同比增长 19%;经调整 EBITA 亏损约 0.6 亿元,同比 收窄 98%。3)阿里云录得 334 亿元收入,同比增长 26%;经调整 EBITA 约 30 亿元,同比增长 26%。4)所有其他业务录得 586 亿元收入,同比 下降 28%;经调整 EBITA 亏损 14 亿元,同比 ...
基本面高频数据跟踪:地产销售微幅回升
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-09-01 05:47
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The updated time of the current fundamental high - frequency data is from August 22, 2025, to August 29, 2025. The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 127.4 points, with a week - on - week increase of 5.5 points, and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds expands, with a signal factor of 5.0% [1][9]. - In terms of production, the industrial production high - frequency index is 126.6, with a week - on - week increase of 5.2 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands [1][9]. - In terms of total demand, the high - frequency index of commercial housing sales is 43.0, with a week - on - week decrease of 6.4 points, and the year - on - year decline rate remains unchanged; the high - frequency index of infrastructure investment is 120.7, with a week - on - week increase of 5.8 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands; the high - frequency index of exports is 143.7, with a week - on - week increase of 2.5 points, and the year - on - year growth rate narrows; the high - frequency index of consumption is 120.0, with a week - on - week increase of 3.0 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands [1][9]. - In terms of prices, the month - on - month forecast of CPI is 0.1%, and that of PPI is 0.2%, both remaining unchanged from the previous values [2][9]. - The high - frequency inventory index is 161.6, with a week - on - week increase of 8.9 points, and the year - on - year growth rate narrows; the high - frequency transportation index is 130.2, with a week - on - week increase of 9.4 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands; the high - frequency financing index is 235.6, with a week - on - week increase of 29.9 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands [2][10]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index Remains Stable - Based on the statistical system, a high - frequency data system covering the overall situation, production, demand, prices, and financing is constructed, and the Guosheng fixed - income fundamental high - frequency index and sub - indices are built [8]. - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 127.4 points, with a week - on - week increase of 5.5 points, and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged [1][9]. Production: PTA Operating Rate Drops Significantly - The electric furnace operating rate is 62.8%, remaining unchanged from the previous value; the polyester operating rate is 86.7%, up from 86.5%; the semi - tire operating rate is 72.8%, down from 73.1%; the full - tire operating rate is 63.8%, down from 64.8%; the PTA operating rate is 70.9%, down from 76.2%; the PX operating rate is 84.6%, remaining unchanged from the previous value; the coal dispatch at Qinhuangdao Port is 48.4 tons, up from 47.7 tons [11][16]. Real Estate Sales: Commercial Housing Transaction Area Increases - The commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities is 245,000 square meters, up from 212,000 square meters; the land premium rate for transactions in 100 large - and medium - sized cities is 1.6%, down from 10.3% [30]. Infrastructure Investment: Petroleum Asphalt Operating Rate Decreases - The operating rate of petroleum devices is 29.3%, down from 30.7% [39]. Exports: Export Container Freight Index Continues to Decline - The CCFI index is 1156 points, down from 1175 points; the RJ/CRB index is 301.0 points, up from 296.9 points [46]. Consumption: Daily Average Box Office of Movies Decreases - The daily average box office of movies is 152.4 million yuan, down from 176.7 million yuan [61]. CPI: Agricultural Product Prices Remain Stable - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.0 yuan per kilogram, down from 20.1 yuan; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 4.9 yuan per kilogram, up from 4.8 yuan; the average wholesale price of 7 key - monitored fruits is 6.9 yuan per kilogram, remaining unchanged from the previous value; the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.6 yuan per kilogram, up from 17.5 yuan [68]. PPI: Copper and Aluminum Prices Rise - The closing price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port (produced in Shanxi) is 695 yuan per ton, down from 703 yuan; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil is 68 US dollars per barrel, up from 67 US dollars; the spot settlement price of LME copper is 9725 US dollars per ton, up from 9616 US dollars; the spot settlement price of LME aluminum is 2616 US dollars per ton, up from 2577 US dollars [72]. Transportation: Passenger Volume Drops Slightly - The passenger volume of the subway in first - tier cities is 39.37 million person - times, down from 40.09 million person - times; the highway logistics freight rate index is 1050 points, remaining unchanged from the previous value; the number of domestic flights is 14,473, down from 14,834 [83]. Inventory: Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Increases - The electrolytic aluminum inventory is 153,000 tons, up from 138,000 tons; the soda ash inventory is 1.878 million tons, down from 1.904 million tons [91]. Financing: Net Financing of Local Government Bonds Continues to Rise - The net financing of local government bonds is 243.5 billion yuan, up from 208.8 billion yuan; the net financing of credit bonds is - 30.4 billion yuan, up from - 48.4 billion yuan; the 6M national - share bank acceptance bill rediscount rate is 0.7%, up from 0.6%; the average value of the bill rate - certificate of deposit rate is - 0.9%, up from - 1.03% [102].
三花智控(002050):业绩超预期,卡位机器人开启成长曲线
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-09-01 02:13
证券研究报告 | 半年报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 09 01 年 月 日 Q2 家电行业需求增长,助力业绩超预期。从下游来看,1)汽车:2025H1, 国内新能源车销量达 694 万台,同比超 40%;特斯拉全球交付 72 万辆, 同比-13%。受益于汽车对热管理需求提升,公司 H1 业务收入 58.7 亿元, 占比 36%,同比+9%;2)家电:2025H1,中国空调累计产量 16329.6 万 台,同比增长 5.5%。受益于补贴政策拉动家电行业需求,公司 H1 业务收 入 103.9 亿元,占比 64%,同比+25%。 精细化管理下,盈利能力稳健。2025H1,公司销售毛利率 28.1%,同比 +0.7pct,销售净利率 13.2%,同比+2.0pct,其中 2025Q2,公司销售毛 利率 29.3%,同比+1.4pct,环比+2.4pct,销售净利率 14.1%,同比 +2.0pct,环比+2.1pct,预计主要系公司通过优化产品销售结构,积极推 进降本增效,优化全球产能布局,从而使得总体毛利率维持在较高水平。 分业务看,公司 H1 制冷空调零部件毛利率 28%,同比+0.7pct,汽车 ...
新泉股份(603179):积极拓展新客户,稳步推进全球化布局
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-09-01 02:11
新泉股份(603179.SH) 积极拓展新客户,稳步推进全球化布局 事件:公司发布 2025 年半年报。2025 年 H1,公司收入 75 亿元,同比 +21%;归母净利润 4.2 亿元,同比+3%;2025 年 Q2,公司收入 39 亿 元,同比+26%,环比+12%;归母净利润 2.1 亿元,同比+1%,环比-2%。 证券研究报告 | 半年报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 09 01 年 月 日 积极拓展新客户,稳步推进全球化布局。下游需求方面,Q2 特斯拉全球 交付 38 万辆,环比+14%,同时国内新能源车销量 295 万辆,环比+26%, 其中吉利销量 99 万辆,环比+4%,奇瑞集团销售 64 万辆,环比+3%。 受益于海外市场开拓+多元化客户结构,公司 2025Q2 收实现 39 亿元,同 比+26%,环比+12%;归母净利润为 2.1 亿元,同比+1%,环比-2%。 2025H1,公司仪表板总成销量为 344 万件,同比+8%,对应营业收入 44 亿元,同比+7%,新增座椅销量 4.8 万件,对应营业收入 0.4 亿元。 瑞琪并表等因素,短暂干扰公司盈利能力。2025Q2,公司销售毛 ...
量化周报:市场波动开始加大-20250901
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-09-01 01:21
证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 08 31 年 月 日 量化周报 市场波动开始加大 市场波动开始加大。本周(8.25-8.29),大盘震荡上行,上证指数全周收 涨 0.84%。在此背景下,双创板块继续大涨。市场的本轮上涨自 4 月 7 日 以来,日线级别反弹已经持续了 4 个多月,反弹幅度也基本在 20%以上, 各大指数和板块的上涨基本都轮动了一遍,上证指数、上证 50、非银、有 色、农林牧渔、消费者服务、商贸零售、纺织服装、计算机、建筑、交运 等板块更是走出了复杂的上涨结构,而银行也已经率先形成了日线级别下 跌,因此我们认为本轮日线级别上涨大概率已临近尾声。短期,市场的波 动开始加大,投资者后续可积极关注市场未来是否出现放量滞涨及放量大 跌迹象。中期来看,上证指数、上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、深证成指、 创业板指、科创 50 纷纷确认周线级别上涨,而且在日线上只走出了 3 浪 结构,中期牛市刚刚开始;此外,已有 25 个行业处于周线级别上涨中, 且 17 个行业周线上涨走了 1-3 浪结构,因此我们认为本轮牛市是个普涨 分析师 梁思涵 A 股景气指数观察。截至 2 ...
8月PMI低位小升的背后
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-09-01 00:40
证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 09 01 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 8 月 PMI 低位小升的背后 今日概览 ◼ 重磅研报 【宏观】政策半月观—市场迎来关键窗口——20250831 【宏观】8 月 PMI 低位小升的背后——20250831 【金融工程】市场波动开始加大——20250831 【金融工程】择时雷达六面图:本周外资指标弱化——20250830 【固定收益】相对性价比在行情中改变——20250831 【固定收益】资金继续宽松,杠杆小幅回升——流动性和机构行为跟踪 ——20250830 【固定收益】低利率反转后的压力与应对——低利率时代资管机构之美 国银行保险篇——20250829 【家用电器】乐摩吧:共享按摩服务提供商,市场份额领先——20250831 【食品饮料】用出清换改善——白酒行业 2025H1 中报总结—— 20250831 【银行】本周聚焦—上市银行 2025 年中报:营收及利润增速双双转正— —20250831 【建筑装饰】Q2 营收业绩降幅收窄,现金流边际改善——20250831 【能源】预期寻底,新机当立——20250829 【计算机】有方科技(688 ...