Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the construction materials sector, with specific buy and hold recommendations for various companies [9][12]. Core Viewpoints - The construction materials sector has shown resilience, with a 3.50% increase in the sector index from June 30 to July 4, 2025, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 2.33% [12]. - The central government's focus on stabilizing the real estate market and promoting high-quality development is expected to positively impact demand for construction materials [2][12]. - The cement industry is experiencing a supply-side reform, with increased efforts to reduce overcapacity and stabilize prices [2][3]. Summary by Sections Cement Industry Tracking - As of July 4, 2025, the national cement price index is 350.38 CNY/ton, down 1.32% week-on-week, with a total cement output of 2.76 million tons, also down 1.67% [3][17]. - The construction sector remains a key demand driver for cement, but short-term growth is constrained by weather and funding issues [17]. - The report highlights a significant year-on-year decline of 26.01% in cement output for housing construction, indicating a challenging market environment [6][17]. Glass Industry Tracking - The average price of float glass is 1201.02 CNY/ton, with a slight decrease of 0.13% from the previous week, while inventory levels have decreased slightly [33]. - Demand remains under pressure, and the report anticipates challenges in maintaining sales momentum due to high production capacity and ongoing order shortages [33][34]. Fiberglass Industry Tracking - The fiberglass market is experiencing stable pricing, with no significant changes in supply or demand noted in the short term [7]. - The report indicates that demand for wind power fiberglass is relatively strong, providing some support to the market [7]. Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials segment is benefiting from improved second-hand housing transactions and consumption stimulus policies, with a recommendation to focus on companies like Beixin Building Materials and Weixing New Materials [2][9]. Carbon Fiber Industry Tracking - The carbon fiber market is seeing a gradual recovery in downstream demand, with production costs remaining high and profit margins under pressure [8].

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 07 06 年 月 日 量化周报 市场未来有望继续上行 市场未来有望继续上行。本周（ 6.30-7.4），大盘震荡上行，上证指数全周 收涨 1.40%。在此背景下，基础化工、电力设备及新能源确认日线级别上 涨。当下，我们认为市场再次回到 4 月 7 日低点的概率基本不存在了。由 于上证指数、上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000、深证成指、创 业板指仍处于日线级别上涨中，且还有部分指数和板块没有确认日线上 涨，因此我们认为市场的日线级别上涨还要持续一段时间，市场未来有望 继续上行。中期来看，上证指数、上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、深证成 指、创业板指、科创 50 纷纷确认周线级别上涨，而且在日线上只走出了 1-3 浪结构，中期牛市刚刚开始；此外，已有 21 个行业处于周线级别上涨 中，且 7 个行业周线上涨只走了 1 浪结构，因此我们认为本轮牛市刚刚开 始，而且还是个普涨格局。中期对于投资者而言，仍然可以逆势布局。 A 股景气指数观察。截至 2025 年 7 月 4 日，A 股景气指数为 21.59，相 比 2023 年 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the lithium sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this industry [6]. Core Insights - The lithium price has shown continuous growth, rising from 59,000 CNY/ton to 64,000 CNY/ton, marking an increase of 8.1% since June 23 [10]. - Supply-side signals indicate a reduction in output from Australian mines, suggesting that the industry is in the later stages of capacity clearance [2]. - Demand remains robust, with significant growth in the lithium battery production and electric vehicle sales, supporting a favorable price transmission for lithium [3]. Supply Summary - Australian lithium mines are signaling reduced output, with production expected to remain flat at 740,000 tons in Q1 2025, down 17% from the previous quarter [2]. - The current pricing has reached a sensitive cost level for Australian producers, leading to operational adjustments and cost-cutting measures [2]. - The low lithium prices have resulted in a squeeze on capital expenditures, potentially leading to a slowdown in supply growth in the future [2]. Demand Summary - The lithium battery industry is experiencing high growth, with domestic battery production reaching 801 GWh in the first half of 2025, a 52% year-on-year increase [26]. - Electric vehicle sales in China reached 5.42 million units in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 32% increase compared to the previous year [26]. - The competitive landscape in the electric vehicle sector is prompting manufacturers to initiate a "de-involution" process to stabilize pricing and improve profitability across the supply chain [27]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that companies with low-cost resource supply and diversified non-lithium operations will have a competitive advantage in the current market [4]. - Recommended stocks include Zhongkuang Resources, Yongxing Materials, Salt Lake Co., Tianqi Lithium, and Ganfeng Lithium, which are expected to navigate the industry downturn effectively [4].

证券研究报告 | 固定收益定期 gszqdatemark 2025 07 06 年 月 日 固定收益定期 压缩利差还是突破关键点位？ 本周债市继续走强，但短端和信用利差压缩更为明显。跨季之后，虽然央行大 幅回笼资金，但资金依然如期宽松。R001和R007分别下降至1.36%和1.49%， DR001 甚至降至 1.31%。宽松的资金推动短端利率继续下行，1 年 AAA 存单 本周累计下行 4.0bps 至 1.61%，3 年和 5 年 AAA-二级资本债分别下行 8.6bps 和 6.4bps。但长端利率关键期限变化有限，10 年国债和 30 年国债本周累计 变化只有-0.3bps 和 0.2bps，基本上保持持平状态。 在关键期限利率下降至关键位置附近之后，市场走势表现为更多压缩各种利 差。目前 1.64%的 10 年国债利率和 1.85%的 30 年国债利率离 1.6%和 1.8% 的关键整数位和前低相去不远，市场在这个位置对活跃券表现谨慎。而更多的 是压缩各种利差：首先，压缩利率债关键期限和非关键期限利差，例如 50 年 与 30 年国债利差从 6 月 16 日的 15.6bps 下降至目前的 8.4b ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 07 06 年 月 日 电力 高温炙烤创纪录，电力配置正当时 本周行情回顾：本周（6.30-7.4）上证指数报收 3472.32 点，上涨 1.40%，沪 深 300 指数报收 3982.20 点，上涨 1.54%。中信电力及公用事业指数报收 2988.40 点，上涨 1.69%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.15pct，位列 30 个中信一级 板块涨跌幅榜第 9 位。 个股方面，电力及公用事业板块上市公司超半数上涨。 本周行业观点： 投资建议：高温席卷全国，迎峰度夏电力负荷攀升，本周创历史新高，迎峰度 夏叠加业绩期催化，建议重视电力板块配置。建议关注季度业绩具备弹性的火 电板块：华能国际、建投能源、华电国际、申能股份、宝新能源；以及火电灵 活性改造龙头：青达环保。推荐关注存量项目占比较高&短期收益确定性更优、 以及中长期更具降本增效优势绿电运营商。推荐布局低估绿电板块，推荐优先 关注低估港股绿电以及风电运营商，建议关注新天绿色能源（H）、中闽能源、 福能股份。把握水核防御，关注随着汛期与雨季到来后来水弹性改善标的，建 议关注长江电力、国投电力、川 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 07 06 年 月 日 通信 光模块的壁垒在哪里？——架构、迭代与格局 【光的迭代：升级节奏加快，硅光渗透成为明确方向】 技术更新速度加快，硅光渗透率提升。目前来看，800G 和 1.6T 的迭代 周期已从传统的 3-4 年缩到 2 年甚至以下。光模块厂商的技术红利仍 在，CW 硅光光源产品逐步放量，光模块上游光器件如 CW、EML 光源 等持续供不应求，光模块厂商仍在持续扩产。从技术侧看，海外巨头开 始推广并使用硅光方案，如英伟达推出的 Quantum 和 Spectrum 系列 硅光交换机系统以及博通推出支持 CPO 的交换机芯片 Tomahawk 6； 国内光模块厂商同样加速技术迭代，如新易盛已推出的基于单波 200G 光器件的 800G、1.6T 光模块产品，产品组合涵盖 VCSEL/EML 激光、 硅光、薄膜磷酸锂等技术解决方案。 我们认为，光通信技术迭代并非简单升级，而是通过材料创新（如硅光 技术的导入）、工艺革命（如封装方案的持续创新）和性能重构（如光 模块速率持续升级），将光通信从"传输管道"进化成为"算力神经"， 未来大型计算集 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 07 06 年 月 日 电力设备 反内卷促光伏供给侧改革，荣耀推出行业最高负极硅含量旗舰新机 光伏：破除"内卷式"竞争，关注光伏供给侧改革机会。6 月 29 日，人民日报推出 金社平文章《在破除"内卷式"竞争中实现高质量发展》指出，"要深化要素市场 化配置改革，主动破除地方保护、市场分割和'内卷式'竞争。"7 月 1 日，中央 财经委员会第六次会议表示要依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产 品品质，推动落后产能有序退出。7 月 3 日，工信部党组书记、部长李乐成主持召 开第十五次制造业企业座谈会，聚焦加快推动光伏产业高质量发展，听取光伏行 业企业及行业协会情况介绍和意见建议，并表示要巩固提升优势，治理光伏行业 低价无序竞争，加快塑造我国下一代光伏产品的竞争优势。光伏行业积极响应供 给侧改革，根据索比光伏网报道，光伏玻璃厂计划 7 月开始集体减产 30%以响应 "反内卷"号召，预计后续多晶硅料价格也有望反弹上行。核心关注两大方向：1） 供给侧偏刚性、后续需求复苏后价格弹性更大的硅料、玻璃和石英砂，核心关注协 鑫科技、通威股份、大全能源、石英 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (Maintain)" [5] Core Views - The report suggests that under the "anti-involution" policy, steel prices are expected to stabilize and recover, which will benefit Honglu Steel Structure as a leading player in steel structure processing. The government has emphasized the need for supply-side structural reforms, and recent policies aim to eliminate low-price competition and promote product quality [1][14]. - Historical data indicates a strong positive correlation between steel prices and the profitability and stock price of Honglu Steel Structure. The company's gross margin tends to decline faster than procurement costs during periods of falling steel prices, while it improves more rapidly during price increases [2][19]. - The report estimates that for every 1% fluctuation in annual steel prices, the net profit per ton for Honglu Steel Structure changes by approximately 5 yuan. A 10% increase in steel prices could lead to a 46% growth in the company's net profit for 2024 [3][24]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Honglu Steel Structure is positioned to benefit from the anticipated stabilization and recovery of steel prices due to supply-side reforms and the "anti-involution" policy [1][14]. Financial Performance - The company’s inventory of steel materials is valued at 4.7 billion yuan as of the end of 2024, which could be revalued positively if steel prices rise [1][19]. - The report forecasts the company's net profit for 2025-2027 to be 8.7 billion, 10.4 billion, and 12.5 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 13%, 20%, and 20% [9][28]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the steel industry has been facing supply-demand imbalances, with crude steel production remaining around 1 billion tons since 2021, while apparent consumption has been declining [1][14]. - The government has prioritized the reduction of crude steel production and the restructuring of the steel industry as part of traditional industry upgrades [1][14]. Operational Efficiency - The company has invested in nearly 2,000 welding robots by the end of 2024, with plans to expand this to 6,000 robots, potentially saving 400 million yuan annually [4][27]. - The deployment of welding robots is expected to enhance production efficiency and reduce costs significantly, contributing to the company's profitability [4][27]. Valuation - The current market valuation corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 5.1 times based on projected net profit of 2.4 billion yuan for 2024, indicating that the stock is undervalued [9][28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the trend towards health-conscious consumption, product innovation, and channel iteration as key drivers in the food and beverage industry [1]. - In the liquor segment, the report highlights the ongoing adjustments in management teams and anticipates a new cycle for the industry, suggesting that the sector is entering a phase of stabilization after a deep adjustment period [2]. - The beer and beverage sector is witnessing a diversification of products, with new offerings such as sugar-free drinks and unique flavors, which are expected to drive growth [3]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - The report identifies three main investment themes: 1. Leading brands with increasing market share, such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye 2. High-certainty regional brands benefiting from local market advantages 3. Elastic stocks that may benefit from recovery and increased risk appetite [1][2]. Beer and Beverage Sector - The report notes the upcoming launch of new beer products and the continued popularity of craft beers, suggesting that companies like Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer are well-positioned for growth [3]. - In the beverage segment, the introduction of a new sugar-free drink by Dongpeng is highlighted, aligning with the health trend and expected to attract consumers [3]. Food Sector - The approval of D-allohexose as a new food ingredient is expected to accelerate growth in the sugar substitute market, with companies like Bailong Chuangyuan being potential beneficiaries [6]. - The report also mentions the entry of Meituan's discount supermarket "Happy Monkey," which is anticipated to enhance competition in the discount retail space [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that the "anti-involution" policy is guiding a short-term strength in energy metals, while gold is under pressure due to rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar [1]. - The report suggests that despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact due to central bank purchases and fiscal concerns [1]. - Industrial metals are experiencing mixed trends, with copper facing supply disruptions and aluminum entering a potential inventory accumulation phase [1]. Summary by Sections Weekly Data Tracking - The non-ferrous metals sector showed mixed performance this week, with varying price movements across different metals [10]. - The report notes that the overall non-ferrous metals index increased by 1.0%, with energy metals up by 1.0% and industrial metals up by 1.5% [16]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Global copper inventory increased slightly to 518,000 tons, with supply disruptions from MMG and Hudbay Minerals affecting logistics [1]. The copper price has seen fluctuations due to macroeconomic factors and demand-side pressures [1]. - **Aluminum**: The report indicates a potential inventory accumulation cycle, with production recovering in some regions while demand remains subdued [1]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: The report notes a continued strength in lithium prices, driven by supply constraints and robust demand from electric vehicle sales [1]. The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose to 64,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a 1.5% increase [26]. - **Metal Silicon**: The report discusses a short-term upward trend in silicon prices due to production cuts and recovery expectations in polysilicon plants [1]. Key Stocks - The report recommends several stocks for investment, including Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Luoyang Molybdenum, all rated as "Buy" [5]. Company Announcements - Zijin Mining announced an asset acquisition of the RG gold mine project, with a valuation of 1.2 billion yuan [34]. - Ganfeng Lithium completed the acquisition of Mali Lithium, enhancing its lithium resource integration strategy [34]. Price and Inventory Changes - The report provides detailed price movements for various metals, indicating that gold prices increased by 4.2% over the week, while copper prices saw a slight decline [21][23]. Market Trends - The report emphasizes the ongoing supply-demand dynamics in the non-ferrous metals market, with particular attention to the impact of macroeconomic indicators on metal prices [1].