Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the steel industry, indicating a positive outlook for selected companies within the sector [6]. Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a divergence between strong expectations and weak realities, with production data quality declining since May 2023, impacting demand assessments [2]. - China's apparent steel consumption increased by 3.6% year-on-year from January to November, but November alone saw a decline of 3.3% [2]. - The net export of steel reached 10.218 million tons from January to November, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, driven by strong manufacturing exports [3]. - Domestic policies are shifting focus towards basic economic fundamentals, with an emphasis on proactive fiscal policies and moderate monetary easing [4]. Summary by Sections Production and Consumption - In November 2025, crude steel production was 6.987 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.9%, while the average daily production was 2.329 million tons, showing a slight month-on-month increase of 0.3% [8]. - The apparent consumption of steel in China for the first eleven months of 2025 grew by 3.6% year-on-year, with a notable decline in November [2]. Exports and Imports - Steel exports for January to November 2025 totaled 10.772 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.7% [8]. - The import of iron ore in November was 11.054 million tons, up 8.5% year-on-year, while cumulative imports for the first eleven months increased by 1.4% [8]. Policy and Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the focus of domestic policies will increasingly center on structural adjustments, with an expectation of continued fiscal easing and reforms [4]. - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in undervalued companies within the steel sector, such as Huazhong Steel and Baosteel, which are expected to benefit from upcoming economic cycles [4].

证券研究报告 | 固定收益 gszqdatemark 2025 12 16 年 月 日 年度策略 固收+为势，科技为王——2026 年可转债年度策略 权益主题不断叠加政策支持，转债随股市震荡上行，2025 年内累计收益 17.35%，可转债基金产品收益和抗回撤表现均不俗。截至 11 月 21 日， 上证综指年初至今累计涨跌幅为上涨 17.54%，深证成指上涨 24.29%， 创业板指上涨 41.72%。转债市场走势与权益趋同，中证转债指数收盘在 482.94，较年初累计上涨 17.35%，双低策略失效，高价低溢价率转债领 跑。权益基金产品年化收益率为 29.37%，转债基金年化收益率为 22.63%， 涨幅小幅跑输但波动率和抗回撤表现均优于权益，其中转债产品年化波动 率为 11.13%，最大回撤仅为 7.34%。 AI 算力、机器人等产业化浪潮逐步实现，业绩兑现预期向好，支撑权益 持续高景气，这是转债估值居高不下的底层逻辑。同时，转债供需持续收 紧、固收+资金流入不断，进一步支撑转债估值。A 股销售毛利率、ROE 触底反弹，平均 ROE 从 2024 年的 20.1%大幅提升至 27.9%，增幅达 38.9% ...

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates a "weak recovery + rebalancing" for the global economy in 2026, supported by four factors: balance sheet repair, loose monetary policy, fiscal expansion, and the AI investment wave, while constrained by high interest rates, tariff impacts, and difficulty in achieving synchronization across economies [1][19]. - The report highlights that the global economic recovery is expected to be more evident in quarter-on-quarter improvements rather than year-on-year increases, reflecting a gradual upward trend but with weak momentum [2][53]. - The analysis suggests that the economic performance of developed countries is likely to gradually recover, while emerging markets will remain relatively stable, indicating a convergence in economic performance across different regions [2][53]. Group 2 - The report anticipates that the Federal Reserve will likely only implement two rate cuts in 2026, aligning with the economic fundamentals, but there is a concern regarding the potential loss of the Fed's independence due to political influences surrounding the upcoming leadership change and midterm elections [3][55]. - It is noted that the macro environment is favorable for U.S. equities due to recovery and rate cuts, but the current valuations are at levels reminiscent of the 2000 internet bubble, which may limit upside potential [4][9]. - The report emphasizes that while U.S. Treasury yields may not decline significantly due to economic fundamentals, the change in Fed leadership and potential for unexpected rate cuts could create downward pressure on yields [4][36]. Group 3 - The report discusses the expected stabilization of the U.S. dollar due to a more balanced economic performance between the U.S. and Europe, although it is unlikely to see significant strength, with the Chinese yuan projected to appreciate slightly [4][38]. - Gold is expected to continue its upward trend, but the pace may slow due to high valuations, with a focus on the potential for industrial metals like silver and copper to outperform [4][41]. - The outlook for oil prices suggests a continuation of a weak trend due to oversupply, with Brent crude oil expected to stabilize around $60 per barrel, contingent on geopolitical factors not escalating [4][44].

证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 12 16 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 11 月消费、投资大降的背后 今日概览 重磅研报 【宏观】11 月消费、投资大降的背后——20251215 【固定收益】基本面压力加大，待政策发力 ——20251215 【固定收益】地产跌幅拉大，食品价格多有回升——基本面高频数据跟 踪——20251215 作者 | 分析师 沈猛 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号：S0680522050001 | | | | | 邮箱：shenmeng@gszq.com | | | | | 行业表现前五名 | | | | | 行业 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 1 年 | | 通信 | 13.3% | 10.9% | 78.8% | | 国防军工 | 6.0% | 5.5% | 19.7% | | 非银金融 | 1.9% | 0.6% | 5.8% | | 机械设备 | 1.4% | 0.7% | 27.6% | | 有色金属 | 1.3% | 14.5% | 70.1% | | 行业表现后五名 | | | | | 行业 | 1 ...

Group 1: Macro Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in real estate sales, with both new and second-hand home sales dropping over 30% year-on-year, indicating a weak market [4][5] - Commodity prices are experiencing mixed trends, with copper prices rising strongly, while coal prices have seen a decline [4] - The automotive sector is also facing challenges, with passenger car sales in the first week of December down 32.3% year-on-year, attributed to tightened vehicle replacement subsidy policies [4] Group 2: Financial Market Performance - The A-share market is expected to transition from valuation-driven growth to earnings-driven growth in 2026, with a suggested neutral position of 80% in investment portfolios [6] - The report indicates that the overall market sentiment remains weak, with the Shanghai Composite Index experiencing a slight decline of 0.34% over the week [9] - Various sectors are showing different performance trends, with defense and military industries seeing gains, while coal and steel sectors are confirming declines [9] Group 3: Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) - The C-REITs market is showing mixed performance, with a total market capitalization of approximately 216.81 billion yuan, and 34 REITs increasing in value while 41 decreased [33] - The report emphasizes the potential for investment opportunities in the REITs market under a low-interest-rate environment, particularly focusing on resilient assets and quality projects [33] Group 4: Coal Industry Insights - The report notes a significant increase in U.S. natural gas prices, which is expected to drive a resurgence in coal power consumption, with coal electricity generation projected to increase by 21% year-on-year in the first quarter [35][36] - Investment recommendations include companies like China Coal Energy and Yanzhou Coal Mining, which are expected to benefit from the rising coal demand [36] Group 5: Banking Sector Analysis - Shanghai Bank reported a steady performance with a total operating income of 41.14 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.0% [40] - The bank's non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 1.18%, indicating solid asset quality [41] - The report highlights the bank's focus on supporting the real economy and meeting consumer needs through targeted lending strategies [42]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 12 14 年 月 日 环保 顶层设计强力驱动，固废循环蓄势升级 政策加码循环经济，金融赋能绿色制造 1、中央经济工作会议指出要坚持 "双碳"引领，推动全面绿色转型。明确要求实施固体废物综合治理行动， 其核心目的是从无废城市建设和资源循环的源头入手，系统减少污染、提 升资源利用效率，为高质量发展提供可持续支撑。这将直接利好固废处理 行业，推荐专注固废循环的龙头企业惠城环保。2.工信部、央行联合发文 强化绿色金融对绿色工厂建设支持，引导金融机构通过绿色信贷、绿色债 券及结构性货币政策工具，加大对国家绿色工厂的资金支持，重点投向绿 色低碳技术研发与产业化、工业节能降碳技术改造升级以及零碳工厂建设 等方向。建议关注受益于碳中和的标的，惠城环保、高能环境等。 当周碳交易行情：本周（12.08-12.12）全国碳市场综合价格行情为：最高 价 60.20 元/吨，最低价 56.32 元/吨，收盘价较上周五下跌 3.38%；挂牌 协议交易成交量 318.23 万吨，成交额 1.87 亿元；大宗协议交易成交量 487.05 万吨，成交额 2.92 亿元；本周无单 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [5] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of AI in reshaping the energy sector, particularly in the coal market, indicating a potential bottom reversal and investment opportunities [1][3] - The coal price is expected to stabilize as winter demand improves, despite recent declines [16][33] - The report highlights the long-term supply constraints in the U.S. coal market, with limited new capacity and declining inventories, suggesting a historical reversal opportunity for coal prices [7][11] Summary by Sections Market Review - The CITIC Coal Index decreased by 3.80% during the week, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 3.72 percentage points [1] - The report notes that the current coal price dynamics are driven by "real demand," with a recent cold wave not significantly impacting consumption [4][8] Coal Prices - As of December 12, 2025, the price of thermal coal at North Port was 761 RMB/ton, down 39 RMB/ton week-on-week [2][33] - The report indicates that coal prices are under pressure due to high port inventories and cautious purchasing behavior from traders [16][35] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report states that coal production is normal, but some mines are temporarily reducing output due to maintenance, leading to a slight decrease in overall capacity utilization [3][16] - The report highlights that U.S. coal demand is expected to increase significantly in 2025, driven by power generation needs, with a projected 15% year-on-year growth in coal-fired electricity generation in the first half of 2025 [7][11] Investment Strategy - The report recommends several companies, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yancoal, as key investment targets due to their strong performance and market positioning [12][9] - It also suggests focusing on companies involved in smart mining technologies and those showing signs of recovery from difficulties [12][9] Key Indicators - The report provides various statistics, including that the coal inventory at the Bohai Rim ports reached 29.16 million tons, an increase of 1.54 million tons week-on-week [16][19] - The average profit per ton of coke for sample enterprises increased to 44 RMB, reflecting a recovery in profitability despite ongoing price pressures [70][72]

Investment Rating - The report recommends "Buy" for Shenzhou International and Huali Group, with respective 2026 PE ratios of 12x and 18x [2][30]. Core Views - The textile and apparel industry is experiencing fluctuations in revenue, with notable declines in some manufacturers' performance due to changing international trade environments and tariff policies [1][13]. - The report anticipates a recovery in orders and shipments for apparel manufacturers in 2026, driven by improved demand and healthy inventory levels [23][28]. - Key brands like Nike are expected to show gradual improvement in their operational performance, which may positively impact their suppliers [23][24]. Summary by Sections Recent Revenue Performance - In November 2025, revenue for Feng Tai Enterprises, Ruo Hong, and Yu Yuan Group decreased by 11.8%, increased by 1.5%, and decreased by 2.4% year-on-year, respectively [1][13]. - Cumulatively from January to November 2025, Feng Tai's revenue declined by 4.9%, while Ruo Hong and Yu Yuan reported increases of 3.8% and 0.9% [1][13]. Industry Outlook - The report indicates that the apparel manufacturing sector is expected to see a recovery in orders in 2026, with a focus on companies with integrated and international supply chains [28][29]. - The report highlights that the competitive landscape is improving, with leading manufacturers likely to gain market share [2][27]. Key Investment Opportunities - Recommended stocks include Shenzhou International and Huali Group, with a focus on companies that are expected to benefit from improved customer trends and operational efficiencies [2][28]. - Other companies to watch include Weixing Co., Kairun Co., and Jingyuan International, which are also positioned well for future growth [2][28]. Brand Performance - The report emphasizes the importance of brand performance, particularly for Nike in the Greater China region, which is expected to show a turnaround [28]. - Other recommended brands include Anta Sports and Li Ning, with respective 2026 PE ratios of 14x and 16x [28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][5]. Core Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the need to "stabilize real estate," indicating ongoing policy support and the necessity for further actions in 2026 [1][10]. - The report highlights the importance of internal demand, suggesting potential relaxation of housing purchase restrictions in core cities and reforms in the housing provident fund system [2][11]. - The real estate sector is viewed as an early-cycle indicator, with a focus on quality housing and the improvement of the competitive landscape favoring leading state-owned enterprises and select private firms [4][10]. Summary by Sections Central Economic Work Conference Review - The conference reiterates the commitment to stabilize the real estate market, emphasizing inventory reduction and the construction of quality housing [1][10]. - Policies will be tailored to individual cities, focusing on controlling new supply and encouraging the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing [1][10]. Market Review - The weekly performance of the Shenwan Real Estate Index showed a decline of 2.6%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.54 percentage points, ranking 28th among 31 Shenwan primary industries [2][15]. - The report notes a significant drop in new home sales, with a 45.3% year-on-year decrease in 30 cities, and a 30% decline in second-hand home sales [3][33]. New and Second-Hand Housing Transactions - New home sales in 30 cities totaled 172.2 million square meters, down 2.5% month-on-month and 45.3% year-on-year [3][28]. - Second-hand home sales in 14 cities reached 195.9 million square meters, reflecting a 2.7% month-on-month increase but a 30% year-on-year decline [33]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on real estate-related stocks, particularly in first-tier and select second-tier cities, as these areas are expected to benefit from policy changes and market recovery [4][10]. - Specific companies recommended for investment include Green Town China, China Overseas Development, and Poly Development among others [4].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 12 14 年 月 日 建筑材料 作者 分析师 沈猛 执业证书编号：S0680522050001 邮箱：shenmeng@gszq.com 分析师 陈冠宇 2025 年 12 月 8 日至 12 月 12 日建筑材料板块（SW）下跌 1.90%，其中 水泥（SW）下跌 1.21%，玻璃制造（SW）下跌 1.99%，玻纤制造（SW） 下跌 2.32%，装修建材（SW）下跌 2.27%，本周建材板块相对沪深 300 超额收益-1.01%。本期建筑材料板块（SW）资金净流入额为-8.10 亿元。 【周数据总结和观点】 本周中央经济工作会议强调，要着力稳定房地产市场，因城施策控增量、 去库存、优供给，鼓励收购存量商品房重点用于保障性住房等。深化住房 公积金制度改革，有序推动"好房子"建设。加快构建房地产发展新模式。 积极有序化解地方政府债务风险，督促各地主动化债，不得违规新增隐性 债务。优化债务重组和置换办法，多措并举化解地方政府融资平台经营性 债务风险。根据 wind 统计，2025 年 11 月地方政府债总发行量 9126.91 亿元，发行金额环比 ...