证券研究报告 | 固定收益定期 gszqdatemark 2025 12 14 年 月 日 固定收益定期 哪些力量能够帮助债市企稳？ 本周债市总体小幅走强，但过程中震荡明显。 本周债市在前半周逐步修复，周 四中央经济工作会议再度提及降准降息之后，利率下行明显，但周五却再度明 显调整并基本回吐此前涨幅。全周来看，10 年国债和 30 年国债均累计下行 0.8bps，分别至 1.84%和 2.25%。而 3 年和 5 年 AAA-二永债分别下行 3.9bps 和 0.4bps 至 2.02%和 2.24%。1 年 AAA 存单累计小幅上行 0.5bps 至 1.66%。 虽然债市情绪依然偏弱，但随着债市调整，我们也需要看到一些变化，可能成 为债市的企稳的支撑力量。从供给端来看，未来一段时期供给压力或将缓和。 从今年状况来看，政府债券供给任务基本已经完成，截止 12 月 12 日，普通 国债净融资 5.04 万亿元，特别国债净融资 1.8 万亿元，新增专项债发行 4.6 万亿元，新增一般债发行 7700 亿元，即使考虑到后续增加的 5000 亿地方债 结存限额使用，全年政府债券发行任务也基本完成。下周政府债券将净偿 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 12 14 年 月 日 基础化工 左手商业航天右手消费，聚焦 3D 打印材料 3D 打印全球 219 亿美元市场，材料种类多样。3D 打印即增材制造（AM）， 被誉为引领第三次工业革命的核心技术。不同于传统制造将原料"削减" 加工成所需形状，3D 打印可一体化成型复杂结构产品，具有快捷、低成 本、高精度等优势。根据 WOHLERS，2024 年全球 3D 打印市场规模高 达 219 亿美元。材料方面，金属材料占比 22%，其中铁基材料由于成本 较低最为主流；高分子材料领域，PLA 线材以其优异的打印性能及低廉的 价格深度绑定 FDM 成为应用最广泛的材料；SLA 光固化主要采用光敏树 脂；SLS 主要搭配高分子粉材，PA12 为主流品种。 消费级 3D 打印机：中国"四小龙"腾飞，行业加速崛起。过去消费打印 机普遍存在"速度慢、易故障、难上手"的问题，目前技术升级带来打印 效率、精度提升；同时主流品牌入门级型号降价至 1000 元内，大大降低 了购买门槛，而例如 Gemini Nano Banana 等多模态 AI 大模型的出现可通 过 2D 图 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 12 14 年 月 日 食品饮料 周观点：白酒龙头信号积极，量贩龙头景气扩张 投资建议：1、白酒：坚持内需主导下顺周期白酒估值、基本面有望先后 修复，茅台、五粮液出牌优化渠道与价格，板块底部价值持续凸显，建议 配置：1）供给出清或边际改善：泸州老窖、古井贡酒、迎驾贡酒、洋河 股份、港股珍酒李渡、舍得酒业、酒鬼酒等；2）中长期龙头：贵州茅台、 五粮液、山西汾酒等。2、大众品：中央经济工作会议重点定调内需主导， 11 月 CPI 同比上涨 0.7%，由食品价格转正带动，鸣鸣很忙上市获批，卫 龙盐津重点打造魔芋，优先关注成长股、后续切换复苏： 1）高景气或高 成长逻辑：东鹏饮料、燕京啤酒、珠江啤酒、万辰集团、盐津铺子、有友 食品、新乳业、百龙创园等，港股卫龙美味等。2）政策受益或复苏改善： 百润股份、青岛啤酒、海天味业、伊利股份、重庆啤酒、安琪酵母、洽洽 食品、仙乐健康、安井食品、立高食品、好想你等，港股农夫山泉、华润 饮料、H&H 国际控股等。 白酒：茅台、普五纷纷出牌，龙头积极、静待改善。临近年底旺季将至， 在白酒需求疲软、供给持续出清、批价仍在承 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and others [3][6]. Core Views - The report highlights that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and balance sheet expansion are favorable for precious metals, with expectations of further rate cuts in 2026 [1][35]. - For industrial metals, the report notes that copper inventories are increasing in the U.S., while non-U.S. regions face supply tightness, which could lead to a short squeeze [2]. - The aluminum market is supported by positive macroeconomic policies and low inventory levels, leading to a strong price floor [2]. - Nickel prices are expected to remain low due to seasonal demand weakness [2]. - Lithium prices are experiencing fluctuations due to supply disruptions, while cobalt supply is set to increase with the resumption of exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo [2]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The Federal Reserve's recent actions are expected to boost liquidity and support precious metal prices [1][35]. - The market anticipates two rate cuts in 2026, which could influence precious metal investments positively [1][35]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: U.S. copper inventories are rising, while low inventories in non-U.S. regions raise concerns about supply [2]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market is experiencing a strong price support due to positive economic data and low inventory levels [2]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices are projected to remain low as demand enters a seasonal downturn [2]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: Prices are fluctuating due to supply disruptions, with recent increases in lithium carbonate prices [2]. - **Cobalt**: The resumption of cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to stabilize supply and maintain high price levels [2]. Key Companies to Watch - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and others for potential investment opportunities [1][2][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the optical communication sector, including Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and Tianfu Communication [5][10]. Core Insights - The optical isolator is a critical passive device in optical communication systems, relying on the combination of polarizers and Faraday plates. There is a significant technological dependency and supply gap in the upstream manufacturing of these core components, particularly in high-end Faraday magnetic optical materials, which has become a bottleneck for industry development [1][19]. - The report highlights the low domestic production rate of core materials for polarizers, which are monopolized by Japanese and Korean suppliers, indicating a need for increased localization [3][21]. - The global shortage of Faraday plates is a critical issue, as their complex material growth and precision processing are dominated by a few companies in the US and Japan, leading to supply constraints that hinder the expansion of isolators and high-speed optical modules [4][22][23]. Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on the upstream gaps in isolators, particularly polarizers and Faraday plates, and recommends companies like Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and Tianfu Communication for investment [8][24]. Market Review - The communication sector has seen an increase, with optical communication performing particularly well, as indicated by various indices showing significant growth [15][18]. Supply Chain Dynamics - In 2024, China's production capacity for polarizers is expected to account for approximately 73% of the global market, yet the localization rate of core materials remains below 10%, posing challenges to supply chain stability [6][7][24]. Key Companies to Watch - The report identifies several key companies to monitor within the optical communication and related sectors, including Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Tianfu Communication, and others involved in the supply chain [8][9][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4] Core Insights - The report indicates that high natural gas prices in the U.S. are driving a resurgence in coal consumption, with utilities opting to increase coal-fired power generation to control costs [2][3] - The performance of coal-fired power generation in the U.S. has seen a year-on-year increase of 21% in Q1 2025, while gas-fired generation has decreased by approximately 3% [3] Summary by Sections Coal Mining - As of December 12, 2025, coal prices have seen slight adjustments, with Newcastle coal priced at $107.75 per ton, down by $1.75 from the previous week, and ARA coal at $95.55 per ton, down by $1.20 [3][33] - The report highlights a significant increase in coal consumption in the U.S. due to the cost control measures by utilities, leading to a shift back to coal from gas [2][3] Key Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including China Coal Energy (H+A), Yanzhou Coal Mining (H+A), China Shenhua Energy (H+A), and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [3][6] - It also highlights companies with potential growth such as Huayang Co., Gansu Energy Chemical, and Jiangxi Tungsten Industry, which have recently undergone significant changes [3][6] Market Trends - The report notes that coal-fired power generation's carbon emissions are approximately 75% higher than those from gas-fired generation, indicating a potential increase in overall carbon emissions as coal's share in power generation rises [3] - The report anticipates further increases in natural gas prices, which could continue to influence coal consumption patterns [3][5]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 12 14 年 月 日 交通运输 快递、民航"反内卷"整治持续，VLCC 受制裁名单再扩大 周观点：中央经济工作会议 12 月 10 日至 11 日在北京举行，会议明确"制 定全国统一大市场建设条例，深入整治'内卷式'竞争"。继续看好快递、 航空在"反内卷"整治下的投资机会。快递反内卷线：快递行业份额逐步 向头部快递集中，反内卷政策下恶性价格战得到有效遏制，头部快递份额、 利润同步提升，有望迎来双击。快递出海线：快递出海，天地广阔，海外 电商 GMV 爆发式增长，带动快递业务量迅猛增长，相关标的为极兔速递。 看好"反内卷"整治下航空板块中长期景气度：运力供给维持低增速、需 求持续恢复，供需缺口缩小叠加油价中枢下移及"反内卷"政策继续推进， 静待票价持续修复、航司盈利不断改善。 行情回顾：本周交通运输板块行业指数下跌 1.55%，跑输上证指数 1.21 个百分点（上证指数下跌 0.34%）。从申万交通运输行业三级分类看，仅 公路货运板块上涨，涨幅为 4.76%；跌幅前三名分别为公交、高速公路、 铁路运输板块，对应跌幅分别为-4.97%、-2.49% ...

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 12 14 年 月 日 量化周报 市场的震荡调整态势不改 市场的震荡调整态势不改。本周（ 12.8-12.12），大盘震荡下行，上证指数 全周收跌 0.34%。在此背景下，煤炭、钢铁、农林牧渔确认日线级别下跌， 军工迎来日线级别上涨。市场的本轮上涨自 4 月 7 日以来，日线级别反弹 已经持续了 7 个多月，反弹幅度也基本在 30%左右，各大指数和板块的 上涨基本都轮动了一遍，超半数的行业日线级别上涨处于超涨状态，几乎 所有的规模指数及一半以上的行业更是走出了复杂的 9-17浪的上涨结构， 科创 50、中小 100 更是在所有宽基里面率先形成了日线级别下跌，地产、 食品饮料、医药、商贸零售、汽车、电子、计算机、非银、机械、煤炭、 钢铁、农林牧渔也相继形成了日线级别下跌，中证 500、中证 1000、创业 板指、沪深 300、传媒、建筑、建材也有较大概率将确认日线级别下跌。 因此我们认为本轮日线级别上涨大概率已经结束。未来市场大概率会是震 荡调整的态势，当下的反弹大概率只是一波 30 分钟级别反弹，不改市场 的震荡调整态势。中期来看，上证指数、上证 ...

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 12 13 年 月 日 量化分析报告 择时雷达六面图：本周技术面好转，拥挤度弱化，综合打分不变 择时雷达六面图：基于多维视角的择时框架。权益市场的表现受到多维度 指标因素的共同影响，我们尝试从流动性、经济面、估值面、资金面、技 术面、拥挤度选取二十一个指标对市场进行刻画，并将其概括为"估值性 价比"、"宏观基本面"、"资金&趋势"、"拥挤度&反转"四大类，从而生成 [-1,1]之间的综合择时分数。 本周综合打分。本周市场的估值性价比分数略微上升，宏观基本面、拥挤 度&反转分数、趋势&资金分数维持不变，综合打分位于[-1,1]之间，当前 的综合打分为 0.08 分，与上周持平（上周综合分数为 0.08 分），维持中 性观点。当前六面图各个维度的观点如下： 分析师 沈芷琦 执业证书编号：S0680521120005 邮箱：shenzhiqi@gszq.com 分析师 刘富兵 执业证书编号：S0680518030007 邮箱：liufubing@gszq.com 研究助理 诸格慧明 执业证书编号：S0680125100009 邮箱：zhugehuimi ...

证券研究报告 | 固定收益 gszqdatemark 2025 12 13 年 月 日 固定收益点评 融资依然存在放缓压力 11 月贷款增速继续放缓，居民贷款连续负增长，票据冲量特征明显。11 月新增信贷 3900 亿元，同比少增 1900 亿元，新增信贷规模已连续 5 个 月同比少增。从分项来看，信贷增长依然依赖于票据冲量，居民贷款及企 业中长期贷款新增规模同比均延续少增态势。11 月企业信贷当月新增 6100 亿元，同比增加 3600 亿元，主要得益于短期贷款的增加。其中企业 中长期贷款当月新增 1700 亿元，同比少增 400 亿元；而票据融资当月新 增 3342 亿元，同比多增 2119 亿元。居民贷款方面，11 月居民贷款新增 -2063 亿元，同比多减 4763 亿元。其中居民中长期贷款当月新增 100 亿 元，同比少增 2900 亿元；居民短贷当月新增-2158 亿元，同比多减 1788 亿元。居民贷款已连续两个月新增为负，且同比连续 5 个月同比少增，这 与地产销售放缓一致。 社融同比小幅多增，增速保持平稳。11 月新增社融 2.49 万亿元，同比多 增 1597 亿元，社融存量同比增长 8. ...