证券研究报告 | 行业专题研究 gszqdatemark 2025 07 07 年 月 日 建筑材料 冰箱能效新国标正式出台，真空绝热板行业放量在即 事件：2025 年 5 月 30 日家用电冰箱新国标发布，2026 年 6 月 1 日正 式实施。过往我国冰箱能效标准平均每 5 年修订一次，现行能效标准发布 于 2015 年，实行周期已有近 9 年之久，与冰箱行业发展现状、国际先进 标准脱钩明显，故本次能效标准的修订具有高度必要性。与旧国标相比， 新国标的重大更改主要可概括为三方面：1）在保持原有 5 级能效等级划 分的基础上大幅提高了相应能效要求（比如耗电量等），旧国标 1 级冰箱 基本对应到新国标 4 级；2）在规定能耗指标的同时加强了容积率相关参 数要求，传统发泡材料优势被进一步削弱（因传统材料主要通过增加发泡 层厚度、牺牲冰箱有效使用空间来应对能效要求升级）；3）新增了深冷间 室等概念，家用冰箱冷冻温度从旧国标的零下 18℃扩展至零下 30-40℃， 对更高效的保温隔热材料诉求进一步上升。 本次冰箱提标带给真空绝热板行业重大发展机遇。冰箱节能降耗措施主要 分为制冷技术、控制技术及绝热技术三类，其中改进 ...

固定收益点评 如何定价 50 年国债 近期 50 年国债表现亮眼，与 30 年国债利差持续压缩，在低票息时期，成 为越来越重要的交易品种。50 年与 30 年国债利差从 6 月 16 日的 15.6bps 下降至 7 月 4 日的 8.4bps，累计下降 7.2bps，目前 50-30 年国债利差已 经降至 2023 年以来均值以下。而且从存量来看，50 年国债当前存量已经 达到 1.3 万亿，已经是具有相当体量的投资品种。那么未来 50 年国债是 否还具有超额收益，蕴含的更多是风险还是机会？我们尝试基于对 50-30 年国债利差定价基础上，来对 50 年国债投资价值进行分析。 证券研究报告 | 固定收益点评 gszqdatemark 2025 07 07 年 月 日 首先，基本面角度对 50-30 年利差基本不具备解释力。虽然基本面对其 他期限利差有一定影响力，但进入超长端之后，无论是基本面表征指标 PMI，还是物价指标 CPI 与 PPI，与 50-30 年国债利差在近几年都不具备 显著的相关性，显示基本面对 50-30 年利差基本不具备解释力。这也显示， 50-30 年利差更多反映资产属性差别，与基本面 ...

速腾聚创（02498.HK） 从感知到执行，打造机器人技术平台 致力于成为全球领先的机器人技术平台企业。速腾聚创为智能车及机器 人提供 1）R 系列、M 系列、E 系列、EM 系列激光雷达，以及 Active Camera 和灵巧手等零部件，2）手眼协同、智能移动、相关工具链等 解决方案，以及 3）服务及其他业务。 2024 年公司激光雷达产品出货约 54.42 万台，其中用于 ADAS 和用于机 器人等用途各约 51.98 万台/2.44 万台。2024 年公司收入约 16.5 亿，同 比增长约 47% 。其中，产品/解决方案/ 服务和其他的占比分别为 93%/6%/1%。2024 年公司经调整净亏损约 3.96 亿元，同比减亏。 证券研究报告 | 首次覆盖报告 gszqdatemark 2025 07 07 年 月 日 随着智驾等级的提升、激光雷达成本的下降，我们认为激光雷达大规模量 产的时代刚刚开始。车载激光雷达端，我们预计 2030 年市场规模可超 500 亿元。机器人激光雷达端，工业场景、消费服务场景、人形机器人等出货 量大幅增长，亦有望驱动机器人激光雷达 2030 年市场规模超 100 亿元。 在 ...

Group 1 - The report anticipates a steady recovery in demand for apparel and jewelry in H2 2025, with retail sales of clothing and textiles expected to grow by 3.3% and jewelry by 12.3% year-on-year from January to May 2025 [1][35] - The report highlights new trends in consumer demand, including diversification in product offerings, with strong growth in functional categories like outdoor and running apparel, and a rising interest in unique gold jewelry products due to high gold prices [1][35] - The investment focus is on selecting high-performing companies in the apparel sector, particularly those with strong fundamentals and growth potential [1][2] Group 2 - The report recommends leading companies in the functional apparel sector, such as Anta Sports, which is expected to maintain a healthy sales growth trend, with a projected PE ratio of 18 times for 2025 [2][6] - It also suggests focusing on premium jewelry brands like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Hong Ki, which are expected to benefit from rising gold prices, with Chow Tai Fook's operating profit projected to grow by 10% year-on-year for FY2025 [2][6] - The report notes that the apparel manufacturing landscape is improving, with leading companies like Shenzhou International and Huayi Group expected to benefit from market share gains in the medium to long term, with projected PE ratios of 11 times and 15 times for 2025, respectively [3][6] Group 3 - The report indicates that the overall inventory levels in the apparel sector are healthy, with a manageable increase in stock levels, which is expected to support steady performance in company earnings as consumer demand improves [39][45] - It highlights the strong growth in outdoor and running categories, with significant participation from younger demographics, and notes that brands like Descente and Kolon Sport are experiencing rapid growth due to their effective multi-brand strategies [46][47] - The report emphasizes the importance of channel efficiency and the integration of online and offline retail experiences, which are crucial for driving sales growth in the apparel sector [1][35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the environmental sector, including Huicheng Environmental, Gaoneng Environment, and Hongcheng Environment [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the comprehensive upgrade of river protection and governance, which is expected to benefit the water treatment industry. The central government has proposed a modern river governance framework aimed at flood prevention, water conservation, ecological restoration, and environmental management by 2035 [1][9]. - The report emphasizes the structural upgrade of the environmental industry driven by policies that enhance water resource management and ecological protection. It suggests focusing on companies with core technologies and national layouts, particularly in the solid waste management sector [1][27]. - The report notes that macroeconomic interest rates are at historical lows, making high-dividend assets and growth-oriented companies attractive. It recommends companies like Gaoneng Environment and Huicheng Environmental, which are positioned to benefit from carbon neutrality initiatives [2][29]. Summary by Sections Investment Views - The report discusses the central government's recent policy on river protection, which aims to create a comprehensive governance system by 2035, enhancing flood prevention and ecological restoration efforts [9][23]. - It also mentions the initiation of a special rectification action in government procurement to eliminate discriminatory practices, which is expected to benefit leading environmental companies [24][27]. Market Performance - The environmental sector has shown strong performance, outperforming the broader market indices. The environmental sector index increased by 1.63%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.40% [3][31]. - Specific sub-sectors within the environmental industry, such as energy conservation, have seen significant gains, while others like monitoring and air quality have faced declines [3][31]. Key Companies - Huicheng Environmental is highlighted for its strong growth potential, particularly in hazardous waste management and plastic recycling projects, with expected revenue growth from significant projects [30]. - Gaoneng Environment is noted for its comprehensive environmental service solutions and strong project pipeline, benefiting from regulatory support and increasing demand for hazardous waste treatment [30]. - Hongcheng Environment is recognized for its consistent dividend payouts and robust growth in its core business areas, making it an attractive investment option [30].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 07 07 年 月 日 传媒 百度文心大模型 4.5 系列开源，字节发布图像生成新模型 Xverse 行情概览：本周（6.30-7.4）中信一级传媒板块上涨 2.39%。本周传媒板 块在游戏板块带动下继续上涨，临近中报期重视中报预期较好公司的投资机 会。2025 年下半年传媒继续看好游戏等基本面驱动板块，同时弹性方向看好 AI 应用及 IP 变现。AI 应用聚焦新应用的映射投资及部分较成熟应用的数据跟 踪，重点关注 AI 陪伴、AI 教育及 AI 玩具方向。IP 变现聚焦有 IP 优势及全产 业链潜力的公司，潮流玩具、影视内容等方向有机会。 板块观点与关注标的：1）游戏：重点关注 ST 华通、吉比特、恺英网络、巨 人网络、神州泰岳、心动公司等，关注完美世界、冰川网络、华立科技等；2） AI：豆神教育、盛天网络、上海电影、荣信文化、盛天网络、中文在线、易点 天下、视觉中国、盛通股份、焦点科技、世纪天鸿、佳发教育等；3）资源整 合预期：中视传媒、国新文化、广西广电、华智数媒、吉视传媒、游族网络 等；4）国企：慈文传媒、皖新传媒、中文传媒、南方传媒、凯 ...

证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 07 07 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 未来四周很关键 今日概览 ◼ 重磅研报 【宏观】政策半月观—未来四周很关键——20250706 【宏观】美国 6 月非农与 ADP 就业为何大幅背离？——20250704 【策略】中报业绩线索的交易思路（二）——20250706 【金融工程】市场未来有望继续上行——20250706 【金融工程】择时雷达六面图：增长指标超预期，宏观分数上行—— 20250705 【固定收益】压缩利差还是突破关键点位？——20250706 【固定收益】资金更为宽松，杠杆再度回升——流动性和机构行为跟踪 ——20250705 【固定收益】超长信用债还有空间吗？——20250704 【银行】本周聚焦—5 月重点省市信贷投放情况如何？——20250706 【商贸零售】苏美达（600710.SH）-双链驱动，开启外贸新篇章—— 20250706 【建筑装饰】中国能建（601868.SH）-能源及算力基础设施龙头，求新 求变蓄势向上——20250704 【电力】高温炙烤创纪录，电力配置正当时——20250706 【通信】光模块的壁垒在哪里？— ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 07 06 年 月 日 医药生物 【周专题&周观点】【总第 404 期】从海外映射寻找下半年创新药 新赛道 一、当周（6.30-7.04）回顾与周专题： 当周（6.30-7.04）申万医药指数环比+3.64%，跑赢创业板指数，跑赢沪深 300 指数。我们 复盘了 PD-1 Plus 核心标的股价走势，以及海外创新管线最新数据。 二、近期复盘： 1、当周表现：本周市场整体震荡向上，钢铁、建材、银行领涨，医药表现也不错。医药结 构上，创新药和脑机接口表现比较好，创新药中以 PD1 plus 和颠覆式技术平台和颠覆式大 单品中小市值表现较好。部分中报优质公司表现也不错。 2、原因分析：本周市场以反内卷逻辑为主线表现。从医药板块来看，7 月初创新药上涨，或 被认为缘于科技资金回归，但我们认为底层逻辑（前面几周周报反复强调）是创新药行业产 业趋势在众多行业中比较优势突出，终归会迎来市场共识，调整后会继续表现。在创新药反 攻过程中，PD1 plus 成了反攻主力军，为什么会这样？因为这轮创新药导火索 BD 的重大 deal 发源地就在 PD1 plus，当然 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 07 06 年 月 日 基础化工 周观点："反内卷"有望带来细分板块景气修复 石化：伊以停火，油价回落。在伊以冲突加剧时，原本在 60-70 美元/桶区 间徘徊的布伦特原油价格一度冲高，最高时达到 78.85 美元/桶。随着以伊 局势的缓解，油价重回 60-70 美元/桶区间，截止 7 月 4 日，布伦特原油 收于 68.30 美元/桶，与本次冲突爆发前价格相比（6 月 12 日为 69.36 美 元/桶），地缘溢价已基本回吐。 原油重回基本面定价。根据最新预测，IEA、OPEC、EIA 在 6 月报中分别 预计 2025 年全球原油需求增量为 72、130、79 万桶/天，而全球供给增量 分别为 180、90、155 万桶/天，即在 IEA、EIA 的统计口径中，最新的原 油供求敞口分别达到+108、+76 万桶/天。而在基本面偏弱的背景下， OPEC+增产幅度仍屡超预期，继 5 月 41.1 万桶/天的超预期增产后（（比原 计划高出 27.3 万桶/天），5 月 31 日，OPEC 再度宣布将在 7 月实施 41.1 万桶/天的增产计划，增产 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the textile and apparel sector, including Anta Sports, Bosideng, and Xtep International, among others [10]. Core Insights - The overall performance of the sportswear sector is stable, with a forecasted slowdown in revenue growth for Q2 2025 compared to Q1 2025 due to fluctuations in the consumer environment [1][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and quality, anticipating performance recovery and valuation increases in 2025 [4]. - The jewelry sector is experiencing significant disparities in performance among companies, influenced by high gold prices and varying consumer demand for gold jewelry [3][29]. Summary by Sections Sportswear Sector - The sportswear companies are expected to maintain a healthy inventory turnover ratio of around 5 as of the end of Q2 2025, despite a forecasted revenue growth slowdown [1][15]. - Anta Sports is projected to achieve over 10% revenue growth in H1 2025, while Li Ning's revenue is expected to remain flat with a 20% decline in net profit [1][18]. - Xtep International is anticipated to see a 5% revenue growth and a 10% increase in net profit for H1 2025 [1][19]. - 361 Degrees is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 10% to 15% and a similar increase in net profit for H1 2025 [1][19]. A-Share Brand Apparel - The A-share brand apparel sector is experiencing stable terminal retail performance, but individual company performance is diverging [2][20]. - Companies like Hailan Home are expected to see a revenue growth of 0% to 5% in Q2 2025, while Steady Medical is projected to grow by 15% to 25% [2][24]. - The report indicates that companies with healthy terminal performance and effective cost management may see year-on-year growth, while those struggling with revenue scale may face pressure [2][20]. Jewelry Sector - The jewelry sector is benefiting from rising gold prices, with retail sales of gold and silver jewelry expected to grow by 12.3% year-on-year in 2025 [3][29]. - Companies like Chow Tai Fook and Chao Hong Ji are highlighted for their strong product differentiation and market competitiveness, with Chow Tai Fook expected to see a 10% increase in operating profit year-on-year [7][29]. - However, companies like Lao Feng Xiang and Zhou Da Sheng are projected to experience revenue declines of 20% to 10% and 15% to 5%, respectively, due to fluctuating consumer demand [3][29]. Apparel Manufacturing - The apparel manufacturing sector is expected to see stable output in finished garments, while upstream textile manufacturing orders are affected by pessimistic expectations [3][6]. - Shenzhou International is projected to achieve a revenue growth of 10% to 15% in H1 2025, while Wei Xing Co. is expected to see a decline in both revenue and net profit by 10% to 15% [3][6]. - The report suggests that leading companies with integrated and international supply chains are likely to outperform the industry in the medium to long term [3][6].