美国 11 月 CPI 意外回落，但数据可能失真 事件：北京时间 12 月 18 日 21:30，美国公布 2025 年 11 月 CPI。 核心结论：美国 11 月 CPI 和核心 CPI 双双超预期回落，但由于政府停摆 影响了调查统计，数据可能很大程度上存在失真。CPI 公布后，美联储降 息预期略微上调，利率期货隐含的 1 月降息概率为 27%，2026 全年降息 2 次和 3 次的概率相当。继续提示：2026 年 1 月议息会议前还能看到更 多就业和通胀数据，叠加特朗普可能提名下任美联储主席，2026 年初可 能是降息预期的关键博弈窗口。 证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2025 12 19 年 月 日 宏观点评 >整体表现：美国 11 月未季调 CPI 同比 2.7%，低于预期值 3.1%和 9 月 数据 3.0%；核心 CPI 同比 2.6%，低于预期值和 9 月数据 3.0%，是过去 9 个月最低。受政府停摆影响，10 月数据因未能统计而永久缺失，10-11 月环比数据也无法计算。 >分项表现：美国 11 月 CPI 主要分项方面，食品分项同比从 9 月的 3.1% 降至 2 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights that the market perception of the company as solely a mobile CIS chip supplier is overly pessimistic, as its business structure is shifting towards non-mobile sectors, particularly automotive CIS, which is expected to surpass mobile CIS revenue in 2025 [3][4] - Automotive CIS revenue is projected to exceed 80 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 30%, indicating a strong position in the mid-to-high-end market [3] - The mobile CIS segment is expected to see a decline, with revenues dropping to approximately 80 billion yuan in 2025, accounting for less than 30% of total revenue due to the lifecycle nearing the end for certain product models [4] Group 2: Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 301.6 billion yuan, 375.7 billion yuan, and 436.7 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.2%, 24.6%, and 16.2% [5] - Projected net profits for the same years are 47.0 billion yuan, 63.3 billion yuan, and 75.0 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 41.5%, 34.6%, and 18.5% [5] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 32, 24, and 20 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, indicating that the company is undervalued as a leading domestic CIS player [5] Group 3: Industry Performance - The report notes that the communication sector has shown significant growth, with a 1-year increase of 78.3%, while the real estate sector has declined by 8.7% over the same period [1] - The coal industry is experiencing a decrease in both production and imports, with November coal production down by 0.5% year-on-year and imports down by 19.9% [8][9] - The report emphasizes the potential for recovery in the optical fiber and cable market, driven by AI demand and a stabilization in ordinary cable prices, suggesting a positive outlook for companies in this sector [6]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 gszqdatemark 2025 12 18 年 月 日 盐津铺子（002847.SZ） 激励与回购并行，目标务实分享成果 事件：盐津铺子发布 2025 年限制性股票激励计划及股份回购计划，拟以 35.18 元/股价格，授予董事、高管、核心技术人员等 157 人，共计 300 万 股股票，占公司总股本的 1.1%。考核目标锚定利润，设置两档，2026-2028 年净利润（（非归母净净利润除本本激激励计划股份付费用））目标值分别 不低于 8.5、10.0、12.5 亿元，触发值分别不低于 7.65、9.0、11.25 亿元。 同时公司拟使）自有资金以不超过 109.32 元/股价格回购260-300 万股股 份，对应 2.8-3.3 亿元资金。 激励锚定利润成长，目标务实分享成果。公司自 2019、2021、2023 年股 权激励后再发激励，延续长效激励，持续牵引公司成长。本激股权激励核 心锚定利润增长，设置两档目标，目标值 2026-2028 年净利润分别不低于 8.5、10.0、12.5 亿元，触发值 2026-2028 年净利润分别不低于 7.65、9.0、 11.25 亿元 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal mining industry, emphasizing potential investment opportunities in the U.S. energy sector driven by AI and market dynamics [5][40]. Core Insights - The report highlights a dual weakness in supply and demand for coal in November 2025, with a year-on-year decline in raw coal production of 0.5% and a projected annual increase in thermal coal production to approximately 3.88 billion tons, albeit with a narrowing growth rate of 1.4% [1][13]. - Coal imports in November 2025 decreased by 19.9% year-on-year, totaling 44.05 million tons, with an expected annual import level of around 38 million tons, reflecting a 6.4% decline [2][19]. - The report notes a 4.2% year-on-year decline in thermal power generation in November, contrasting with a 2.7% increase in overall industrial power generation [3][22]. - The U.S. coal market is anticipated to experience a historic reversal due to low inventory levels, explosive demand growth, and a rigid supply decline, with coal demand driven primarily by electricity generation [41]. Summary by Sections Production - In November 2025, the raw coal production was 430 million tons, showing a 0.5% year-on-year decline, while the daily average production was 14.23 million tons [1][13][12]. - For the first eleven months of 2025, the cumulative raw coal production reached 4.4 billion tons, reflecting a 1.4% year-on-year increase [1][13]. Imports - Coal imports in November 2025 were 44.05 million tons, down 19.9% from the previous year, with a total of 431.68 million tons imported from January to November, marking a 12.0% decline [2][19][20]. Demand - The report indicates a 4.2% year-on-year decrease in thermal power generation in November, with total industrial power generation increasing by 2.7% [3][22]. - The crude steel production in November 2025 was 6.987 million tons, down 10.88% year-on-year [3][32]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on investment opportunities in the energy sector driven by AI, recommending companies such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Yanzhou Coal Mining [40][8]. - It also highlights the potential for significant growth in U.S. coal demand due to the increasing electricity needs of data centers, predicting a compound annual growth rate of 21% from 2024 to 2030 [41].

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 gszqdatemark 2025 12 18 年 月 日 学大教育（000526.SZ） 业绩拐点初显，职业教育打造第二增长曲线 短期看，公司 Q3 业绩下滑但合同负债大幅提升，业绩拐点初显。虽然公司 2025Q3 单季度实现营业收入 6.97 亿元/同比+11.19%，归母净利润 143 万元 /同比-89.90%，利润承压预计是由于扩张带来的教师人工成本增长。但公司 前置性指标合同负债在 2025Q3 末达到了 12.04 亿元，同比增长 22.48%，增 速较 Q2 的 3.65%大幅提升，表示公司未来收入确认有较强保障。 同时，公司历史遗留负债状况显著改善。公司已于 2025 年初全额偿还了历 史遗留的巨额债务本金，公司于 2016 年向原控股股东紫光卓远借款（本金） 共计 23.5 亿元，截至公司 2024 年报发布日公司已还清该 23.5 亿元本金。从 财务指标看，公司资产负债率从 2022 年的 86.7%持续下降至 2025 年 Q3 的 77.1%。 长期来看，受益于行业竞争格局优化，公司主业个性化教育业务持续扩张。1） 个性化辅导：以"一对一"和"一对少"小班 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The report highlights a decline in both fiscal revenue and expenditure in November, with general fiscal revenue growth turning negative and both tax and non-tax revenue growth slowing down [3] - Cumulative fiscal expenditure from January to November was 83.7%, significantly below the seasonal average of 86.7% over the past three years, indicating a slower spending pace [3] - If December's expenditure growth can rise to 10%, the total fiscal revenue for the year could exceed expenditure by approximately 630 billion, potentially creating a surplus to support 2026 spending [3] Group 2: Employment and Monetary Policy - The U.S. non-farm employment data for October and November showed significant volatility, primarily due to government sector disruptions, while the private sector remained stable [4] - The unemployment rate slightly increased, indicating a moderate slowdown in overall employment, yet the resilience of the job market remains strong [4] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve remain unchanged, with a 24% probability of a rate cut in January 2026, suggesting a critical period for monetary policy decisions [4] Group 3: 3D Printing Industry Overview - The global 3D printing market is projected to reach $21.9 billion in 2024, with printers and services accounting for 74% and materials for 20% of the market [7] - The consumer-grade 3D printing market is expected to grow from $4.1 billion in 2024 to $16.9 billion by 2029, with Chinese manufacturers dominating 94% of the global market [8] - Industrial-grade 3D printing is heavily utilized in the aerospace sector, with significant revenue contributions from companies like Plutotech and Huazhu High-Tech, indicating a robust growth trajectory in commercial space endeavors [9] Group 4: Investment Opportunities in 3D Printing - The report identifies key players in the consumer-grade 3D printing market, including TuoZhu Technology and Chuangxiang Sanwei, which are expected to benefit from the industry's accelerated growth [10] - The industrial-grade 3D printing market is also highlighted, with companies like Plutotech and Huazhu High-Tech positioned to capitalize on the increasing demand for advanced manufacturing solutions [10] - The report emphasizes the potential of 3D printing technology in various sectors, including electronics and aerospace, suggesting a broad range of investment opportunities [10]

Employment Data - In November, the U.S. added 64,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expected 50,000[2] - October saw a decrease of 105,000 non-farm jobs, with August and September data revised down by 33,000[2] - The unemployment rate in November rose to 4.6%, above the expected 4.5% and the previous month's 4.4%, marking the highest level since October 2021[2] Labor Market Insights - The labor force participation rate in November was 62.5%, slightly above the expected and previous month's 62.4%[2] - Average weekly hours remained stable at 34.3 hours in November, compared to 34.2 hours in October[2] - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.1% month-on-month in November, below the expected 0.3% and down from 0.4% in October, averaging around 0.3% over the two months[2] Sector Performance - Government employment saw significant volatility, with a drop of 157,000 jobs in October, narrowing to a decrease of 5,000 in November[3] - Private sector job additions were relatively stable, with 53,000 in October and 68,000 in November, indicating resilience in the labor market despite government disruptions[3] Market Reactions - Following the employment data release, major asset prices showed narrow fluctuations, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones down by 0.2% and 0.6% respectively, while the Nasdaq rose by 0.2%[4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 3.5 basis points to 4.14%, and the dollar index decreased by 0.1% to 98.2[4] Interest Rate Outlook - The implied probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January remains around 24%, with expectations for two rate cuts throughout 2026[4] - The upcoming January meeting will be crucial, with additional employment and inflation data expected before the decision[5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [4] Core Insights - 3D printing is recognized as a revolutionary technology in high-end manufacturing, with a global market projected to reach $21.9 billion in 2024, where printers and services account for 74% and materials for 20% [1][18] - The consumer-grade 3D printing market is rapidly growing, with an expected market size of $4.1 billion in 2024, increasing to $16.9 billion by 2029 [2] - The industrial-grade 3D printing sector is primarily driven by the aerospace industry, with significant revenue contributions from companies like Platinum and Huazhu [2][3] Summary by Sections 1. 3D Printing: Unlocking High-End Manufacturing - 3D printing, also known as additive manufacturing (AM), is a disruptive technology that contrasts with traditional subtractive manufacturing methods [9] - The global 3D printing market is expected to reach $21.9 billion in 2024, with a forecasted growth to over $114.5 billion by 2034 [18] - The market is dominated by printer sales and services, which make up approximately 74% of the total market [18] 2. Consumer-Grade 3D Printers: China's "Four Little Dragons" Soar - The consumer-grade 3D printing market is entering a phase of accelerated penetration, with significant contributions from Chinese manufacturers [2] - In 2024, the global shipment of consumer-grade 3D printers is estimated to be around 4.1 million units, with Chinese companies holding a 94% market share [2] - The report highlights the technological advancements that have improved efficiency and reduced costs in consumer-grade printers [2] 3. Commercial Aerospace: The Mainline of Industrial 3D Printing - The aerospace sector is identified as the core downstream market for industrial-grade 3D printers, with significant revenue shares from companies like Platinum and Huazhu [2] - The commercial aerospace market in China is projected to reach ¥2.3 trillion in 2024, with expectations of further growth [2] - 3D printing is increasingly used in the manufacturing of rocket engines, significantly reducing costs and production times [2] 4. Technology & New Consumption: 3D Printing Technology Has Great Potential - 3D printing is gradually replacing traditional CNC machining in the 3C field, offering higher precision and lower material waste [3] - The technology is also being applied in the production of liquid cooling plates, enhancing thermal performance in various applications [3] - The report identifies key players in the consumer-grade and industrial-grade 3D printing markets, highlighting their roles and market positions [3]

Group 1: Macro Overview - The main theme for the 2026 overseas market is "weak recovery + rebalancing," driven by factors such as "balance sheet repair + loose monetary policy + fiscal stimulus + AI investment wave," with a gradual economic recovery expected, albeit with weak momentum due to high interest rates and tariff impacts [2] - Different countries and industries are expected to transition from divergence to convergence, with economic, policy, and asset prices influenced by multiple factors reaching a balance point [2] Group 2: Fixed Income Strategy - The report emphasizes that the industrial wave of AI computing power and robotics is gradually being realized, supporting a high level of performance in equity markets, which underpins the high valuation of convertible bonds [3] - The supply-demand dynamics for convertible bonds are tightening, with continuous inflows into fixed income, further supporting their valuation; "pan-technology" is identified as a strategic allocation focus for equities and convertible bonds [3] - Recommended convertible bond targets include Guowei Convertible Bond, Xinfeng Convertible Bond, Weier Convertible Bond, Lianang Convertible Bond, Yiwai Convertible Bond, and Jianfan Convertible Bond [3] Group 3: Real Estate Sector - From January to November, the cumulative sales amount of new homes decreased by 11.1% year-on-year, with a total sales amount of 751.3 billion yuan, and the sales area decreased by 7.8% [6] - The report indicates that the new housing market is expected to remain under pressure in 2026, with a low performance due to the lack of significant policy changes [7] - The report suggests maintaining an "overweight" rating on real estate-related stocks, highlighting the importance of policy-driven dynamics and the potential benefits for quality real estate companies in a changing competitive landscape [7] Group 4: Steel Industry Insights - The quality of steel production statistics has declined since May, affecting the assessment of steel demand due to discrepancies between reported and actual production data [10] - The report notes that the weak reality continues to unfold against strong expectations in the steel sector, indicating challenges in demand and production regulation [10] Group 5: Company-Specific Analysis - Sutonju Chuang reported a Q3 2025 shipment of 186,000 laser radars, a year-on-year increase of 34%, with significant growth in the robotics sector [11] - The company's revenue for Q3 2025 reached 410 million yuan, a slight decrease of 0.2% year-on-year, with a gross margin of approximately 23.9% [11] - The report maintains a "buy" rating for Sutonju Chuang, projecting total revenues of 2.3 billion, 3.5 billion, and 4.4 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with a target market value of approximately 21.14 billion yuan [14]

证券研究报告 | 策略报告 gszqdatemark 2025 12 16 年 月 日 投资策略 中央经济工作会议点评 一、策略专题：中央经济工作会议点评 2025 年 12 月 10 日至 11 日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。 （1）如何理解五个新"必须"？ 2024 年中央经济工作会议以五个"必须"总结了对经济工作的规律性认 知，而今年的会议认为，通过实践，我们对做好新形势下经济工作又有了 新的认识和体会，并提出了五个新"必须"。我们认为，五个新"必须"可 能是我们认知 2026 年经济工作与政策取向的重要指引。 一是"必须充分挖掘经济潜能"，指向我国具备超大规模市场和强大生产 能力的优势，应充分利用上述优势在扩内需等领域培育更多新的经济增长 点； 二是"必须坚持政策支持和改革创新并举"，这与政策取向中"加大逆周 期和跨周期调节力度"等措辞相呼应，表明在提供短期政策支持时还应同 时具备长远的政策视野，增量更要提质； 三是"必须做到既'放得活'又'管得好'"，二十届三中全会关于全面深 化改革的《决定》曾提出"既'放得活'又'管得住'"，本次会议将管得 "住"改为管得"好"，表明了对全面深化改革、整治"内卷 ...