证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 11 16 年 月 日 王府井（600859.SH） 奥莱强化性价比，免税有望受益政策拉动 购百延续压力，奥莱积极组织性价比运营。1）购百：受消费格局转变、关 闭与调整部分门店等因素共同影响，公司旗下百货与购物中心业态收入同 比下滑。根据公司公告，2025Q1-3 百货实现营收 29.0 亿元/同比-11.36%， 购物中心实现营收 18.6 亿元/同比-16.56%；2）奥莱：加强高性价比经营 内容的组织和运营。2025Q1-3奥莱业务实现收入 17.3 亿元/同比+4.88%； 3）免税：海南免税业务采取了较为稳健的销售策略，2025Q1-3 免税业务 实现收入 1.8 亿元/同比-9.25%。10 月 30 日，财政部等五部门印发通知 明确，11 月 1 日完善免税店政策支持提振消费，后续免税有望受益政策 拉动。 利润有所承压。1）毛利端，2025Q3 毛利率同比-2.06pct 至 36.24%，其 中百货/购物中心分别同比-3.13pct/-7.81pct 至 30.48%/35.59%，主要受 长期摊销等固定成本相对刚性等因素影响，成 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining [3]. Core Views - Precious metals have seen a reduction in negative factors, indicating a favorable time for left-side positioning. The market anticipates a more dovish Federal Reserve leadership, which has led to a significant increase in gold and silver prices. The report suggests that the prices of these metals have stabilized, making it an opportune moment for investment [1][34]. - For industrial metals, the copper supply remains tight due to disruptions in mining, with expectations of shortages continuing until 2026. The report highlights that the current copper price is supported by this supply-demand imbalance [2]. - The lithium market is experiencing a continuous reduction in inventory, leading to price increases. The report notes that lithium carbonate prices have risen by 7.5% to 87,000 yuan per ton, indicating strong demand in the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors [2]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report indicates that the negative factors affecting precious metals are gradually dissipating, and it is now a good time for left-side positioning. The market's expectation of a more dovish Federal Reserve has contributed to a significant rise in gold and silver prices [1][34]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: The report notes a tight supply situation due to mining disruptions, with global copper inventories increasing by 14,300 tons. The report emphasizes that the supply-demand imbalance is a key support for copper prices [2]. - **Aluminum**: The report mentions that aluminum prices are expected to remain stable due to improved macroeconomic sentiment and domestic consumption policies [2]. - **Nickel**: The report highlights a decline in purchasing sentiment for nickel, leading to weaker prices. The supply of nickel salts is constrained, pushing up production costs for smelters [2]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: The report states that lithium prices have increased due to ongoing inventory depletion, with battery-grade lithium carbonate prices rising to 87,000 yuan per ton. The demand from the electric vehicle market continues to grow, supporting price increases [2]. - **Cobalt**: The report indicates that cobalt prices are expected to remain high due to a rigid supply gap, despite a decline in actual transaction volumes due to high prices [2]. Key Companies to Watch - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining for potential investment opportunities in the precious metals sector [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [5]. Core Insights - The food and beverage industry is experiencing a transformation driven by health-conscious consumer trends, product innovation, and channel expansion, with companies actively enhancing their product offerings and exploring overseas markets [1][9]. - In the liquor segment, the supply side is undergoing continuous changes to seek growth, while the demand side is gradually recovering, highlighting the absolute investment value in the industry [2][3]. - The beverage sector is focusing on product innovation and network expansion to uncover growth potential, with a strong emphasis on health upgrades and premiumization [4][7]. Summary by Relevant Sections Liquor Industry - **Water Well**: The company is optimizing its product matrix and plans to launch a new high-end product in 2025, focusing on brand collaboration and expanding its terminal network [2]. - **Jiu Gui Jiu**: The brand is implementing a strategic focus on brand depth and product line simplification, with expectations for improved sales performance [3]. - **She De Jiu Ye**: The company is maintaining its core strategy while expanding its product offerings, particularly in e-commerce, to drive growth [3]. Beverage Industry - **Kang Shi Fu**: The company is committed to innovation and quality, focusing on expanding its product range to meet diverse consumer needs [4]. - **Unified Enterprises**: The company is experiencing stable performance with a focus on product innovation and market expansion, particularly in the instant noodle and beverage segments [7]. - **Hua Run Beverage**: Short-term performance is under pressure due to competition, but long-term growth prospects remain strong due to the essential nature of its products [7]. Health and Wellness Trends - **Anqi Yeast**: The company is targeting over 10% revenue growth, with a focus on expanding its overseas market presence and maintaining cost advantages [9]. - **Xian Le Health**: The company is advancing its global strategy and product innovation to capture new consumer trends, with a focus on high-margin products [9]. - **Jian Yi Health**: The company is enhancing its probiotic offerings and expanding its product lines to meet evolving consumer demands [10]. Overall Market Trends - The food and beverage industry is witnessing a shift towards healthier products and innovative marketing strategies, with companies adapting to changing consumer preferences and exploring new growth avenues [1][4].

建筑装饰 市场持续"高切低"，坚守出海+区域景气龙头 本周核心观点：四季度以来市场持续演绎"高切低"， 10 月初至今红利指 数涨幅 8.3%，期间上证指数/沪深 300/创业板指数分别变动+2.8%/- 0.3%/-3.9%，红利板块超额收益显著。在此背景下中长期成长逻辑清晰、 低估滞涨、股息率较高的优质标的有望获资金关注。建筑板块年初以来显 著滞涨、估值仍处历史底部区间，其中部分龙头标的具备中长期成长逻辑、 三季度业绩表现亮眼，股息率具备吸引力，有望获重点增配。核心看好两 大方向：1）出海：当前新兴国家城镇化、工业化提速，叠加中国国内部分 制造业产能外移，中国建造加速出海是长期大趋势，海外工程需求有望加 速释放，具备细分领域显著竞争优势的专业工程出海龙头有望显著受益， 重点推荐钢结构出海龙头精工钢构（ 26PE 11.1X，26E 股息率 6.3%），全 球高端幕墙领军者江河集团（ 26PE 13X，26E 股息率 6.3%），全球水泥工 程龙头中材国际 26PE 7.4X，26E 股息率 5.4%）。2）区域景气：四川、 新疆、西藏等区域后续有望获政策大力支持，固投将展现持续高景气，其 中四川有望核心受 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electric power equipment industry [6] Core Insights - The report highlights significant trends in various sectors of the electric power equipment industry, including solar energy, wind energy, hydrogen, energy storage, and electric vehicles, indicating strong growth potential and investment opportunities [1][2][3][4][5] Summary by Sections 1. Solar Energy - The multi-crystalline silicon market remains stable, with strong price support from component manufacturers. The average transaction price for n-type silicon is 53,200 RMB/ton, unchanged from the previous period [1][15] - The report emphasizes three key areas for investment: supply-side reform leading to price increases, new technology-driven long-term growth opportunities, and industrialization opportunities from perovskite technology [1][16] 2. Wind Energy & Grid - Jiangsu Province is accelerating offshore wind projects, with 1.2GW of sea area usage rights announced, indicating a push towards construction by 2026 [2][17] - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in wind turbine manufacturing, submarine cables, and high-voltage technology [2][19] 3. Hydrogen - The National Pipeline Network plans to build a 290 km hydrogen pipeline, marking a significant step in green energy infrastructure development in China [3][18] - Investment opportunities are highlighted in quality equipment manufacturers and hydrogen compressor companies [3][20] 4. Energy Storage - A strategic cooperation agreement between Haibo Shichuang and CATL for 200GWh of battery supply over three years indicates strong growth in the energy storage sector [4][21] - The report suggests focusing on companies with high growth certainty in large-scale energy storage [4][30] 5. Electric Vehicles - Dongfeng Motor plans to mass-produce high-energy solid-state batteries by September 2026, which will significantly enhance vehicle range and performance [5][31] - The report identifies key players in the solid-state battery sector and suggests monitoring their developments [5][32]

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 11 15 年 月 日 量化分析报告 择时雷达六面图：本周资金面好转 择时雷达六面图：基于多维视角的择时框架。权益市场的表现受到多维度 指标因素的共同影响，我们尝试从流动性、经济面、估值面、资金面、技 术面、拥挤度选取二十一个指标对市场进行刻画，并将其概括为"估值性 价比"、"宏观基本面"、"资金&趋势"、"拥挤度&反转"四大类，从而生成 [-1,1]之间的综合择时分数。 本周综合打分。本周市场的估值性价比、趋势 &资金分数上升，宏观基本 面、拥挤度&反转分数下降，综合打分位于[-1,1]之间，当前的综合打分为 0.03 分，整体为中性观点。当前六面图各个维度的观点如下： 流动性。本周货币方向、信用方向发出看多信号，货币强度信号中性， 信用强度发出看空信号，当前流动性得分为 0.25 分，综合来看发出中性 偏多信号。 经济面。本周增长方向指标发出看多信号，通胀方向、通胀强度发出看 空信号，当前经济面综合得分为-0.25 分，综合来看发出中性偏空信号。 估值面。本周席勒 ERP、PB、AIAE 指标分数均上升，当前市场的估 值面得分为-0.47 分 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 11 16 年 月 日 医药生物 对标博泰，三生【BD 第二幕】走到哪里了？【周专题&周观点】 【总第 422 期】 一、11.10-11.14 回顾与周专题： 本周（ 11.10-11.14）申万医药指数环比+3.29%。我们对标科伦博泰生物历史股价走势，来判断三 生制药大品种 BD 投资阶段。 二、近期复盘： 1、当周表现：本周市场围绕 4000 点持续震荡，风格上高低切，科技回调，消费上涨，医药表现不 错，创新药和流感条线表现较好，港股创新药涨幅较大，A 股辨识度创新药表现也不错，小核酸供 应链逐步成为新的热点。 2、原因分析：本周市场整体高低切，消费医药都是受益于市场风格，医药尤其是创新药更具产业 逻辑优势。流感表现较好，原因上周周报讨论过，这周得到了加强。创新药在市场风格加持下，我 们认为部分全市场基金实现了仓位再平衡，直接导致港股创新药大票和 A 股辨识度创新药龙头的 上涨，当然在这里面也演绎了阿尔法的逻辑，我们说两个：第一，辉瑞持续给三生开全球临床实 验，把 707 作为核心品种持续加持，让市场加深了对 BD 第二幕理解，也实现了三 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the current policy environment is being driven by fundamental pressures, suggesting that the policy response may exceed the levels seen in 2008 and 2014 [4]. - Real estate is identified as an early-cycle indicator, serving as a barometer for economic trends, making it a strategic investment focus [4]. - The competitive landscape within the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private firms expected to benefit more in the future [4]. - The report continues to support investment in first-tier cities and two-thirds of second-tier cities, indicating that this combination has historically performed better during sales rebounds [4]. - Supply-side policies, including land storage and management of idle land, are highlighted as critical areas to monitor, with first and second-tier cities likely to benefit more from these changes [4]. Summary by Sections New Housing Market - In the week, new housing transaction area in 30 cities was 1.59 million square meters, showing a week-on-week increase of 17.4% but a year-on-year decrease of 34.6% [2]. - The new housing transaction area for first-tier cities was 432,000 square meters, up 12.6% week-on-week but down 42.5% year-on-year [2]. - Second-tier cities recorded a transaction area of 881,000 square meters, up 24.7% week-on-week and down 23.4% year-on-year [2]. - Third-tier cities had a transaction area of 276,000 square meters, up 4.9% week-on-week but down 47.7% year-on-year [2]. Second-Hand Housing Market - The total transaction area for second-hand housing in 14 sample cities was 2.003 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week growth of 4.7% but a year-on-year decline of 17.0% [2]. - First-tier cities accounted for 856,000 square meters in second-hand transactions, up 8.7% week-on-week [2]. - Second-tier cities had a transaction area of 873,000 square meters, up 1.4% week-on-week [2]. - Third-tier cities recorded 273,000 square meters, up 3.7% week-on-week [2]. Credit Bonds - In the week of November 10-16, four credit bonds were issued by real estate companies, a decrease of eight from the previous week, with a total issuance of 3.62 billion yuan, down 6.63 billion yuan [3]. - The total repayment amount was 10.829 billion yuan, an increase of 4.359 billion yuan, resulting in a net financing amount of -7.209 billion yuan, down 10.989 billion yuan [3]. Market Performance - The report notes that the Shenwan Real Estate Index had a cumulative change of 2.7%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 3.78 percentage points, ranking 7th among 31 Shenwan primary industries [14]. - A total of 84 stocks in the real estate sector rose, while 30 stocks fell, with the top five gainers being Qianjing Garden, China Wuyi, Huaxia Happiness, Guancheng Datong, and Rongsheng Development, with gains of 61.0%, 30.0%, 26.3%, 21.6%, and 18.2% respectively [14].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 11 16 年 月 日 电子 鸿海精密：算力需求强劲，AI 机柜持续放量。鸿海精密 25Q3 营收达到 2.06 万亿新台币，环比增长 15%，同比增长 11%；盈利能力持续提升， 归母净利润达 576.73 亿新台币，环比大增 30%，同比增长 17%；毛利率 为 6.35%，环比上升 2bps，同比上升 16bps；净利率 2.80%，环比上升 33bps，同比上升 14bps。受益于 AI 算力需求强劲及新一代 AI 机柜量产， 25Q3 AI 机柜出货季增 300%，AI 服务器营收提前突破新台币 1 兆元，指 引 25Q4 AI 机柜出货目标环比高双位数增长。2026 年，美国前五大 CSP 厂商资本支出预估近 6000 亿美元，AI 服务器出货态势将延续，公司与北 美主要 CSP 客户保持稳定合作，2026 年 AI 服务器市占率目标将超当前 4 成。 周观点：相关标的见尾页。 风险提示：下游需求不及预期、研发进展不及预期、地缘政治风险。 AI 算力强需求驱动，存储原厂再涨价 中芯国际：产能供不应求，预计年收入首超 90 亿美元。中芯 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the computer industry [4] Core Insights - The report identifies three categories of AI applications worth mid-term investment: Custom Agent Platforms, High Barrier Vertical Applications, and AI Infrastructure [10][12][26] - OpenAI's recent developments, including the Apps SDK and AgentKit, signify a shift towards creating an AI application ecosystem, allowing developers to build interactive applications within ChatGPT [12][13] - Major companies like Tencent and Alibaba are also developing their own AI ecosystems, with Tencent planning to integrate AI capabilities into WeChat and Alibaba revamping its mobile AI application to compete with ChatGPT [14][17] Summary by Categories Custom Agent Platforms - OpenAI's Apps SDK enables developers to create interactive applications within ChatGPT, enhancing user experience and functionality [12][13] - The introduction of AgentKit allows for easy development of AI agents without extensive coding knowledge, showcasing its efficiency through a live demonstration [13] - Partnerships with various sectors, including education and real estate, highlight the broad applicability of these AI applications [12][14] High Barrier Vertical Applications - The report emphasizes that strong industry know-how, proprietary data, complex workflows, and regulatory compliance create significant barriers to entry for competitors [18][19][20][22] - Companies with deep industry expertise and unique data sources are positioned to leverage large models as tools to enhance their existing advantages rather than being threatened by them [18][19] - Examples include Palantir, which has established a strong foothold in the defense sector through its AI platform [22][23] AI Infrastructure - Infrastructure providers are positioned to gain stable returns by serving all companies involved in the AI arms race, with Snowflake and CrowdStrike highlighted as key players [26][29] - Snowflake's cloud data platform supports scalable AI deployments, while its Cortex suite allows users to run advanced AI models without data migration [28] - CrowdStrike's Falcon platform aims to secure AI operations by protecting against various cyber threats, collaborating with major tech companies to enhance AI security [29][30] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the computing sector, particularly those involved in AI infrastructure and agent development, including notable firms like Cambricon, Alibaba, Tencent, and Salesforce [7][34]