证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 12 28 年 月 日 有色金属 反内卷与逼仓情绪升温，铜价创历史新高 贵金属：长期宽松预期不变，金银再创新高。周内美国 2025 年三季度实际 GDP 环比折年率 初值 4.3%，大幅高于预期值 3.3%和前值 3.8%；实际 GDP 同比 2.3%，高于前值 2.1%和 2000 年至今的均值 2.2%。三季度 PCE 通胀、核心 PCE 通胀环比折年率分别为 2.8%、2.9%， 高于前值 2.1%、2.6%。若将净出口、存货变化、政府支出剔除，则三季度美国实际 GDP 环 比折年率为 2.6%，略高于二季度的 2.5%和 2022 年以来的均值 2.3%。与 GDP 增长形成反 差的在就业市场，11 月 ADP 就业人数仅-3.2 万人，季调后非农就业 6.4 万人，两项数据均 显示美国就业市场仍处于疲软状态，我们认为美联储仍有降息的必要性，流动性宽松预期仍 然利好金银价格上涨。此外，白银现货租赁利率在今年 10 月一度超过 35%，近期仍维持在 6%左右的高位，远高于正常融资成本，也反映出实物白银出借意愿极低，现货市场供应紧 张，本周白 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 12 28 年 月 日 煤炭开采 现货、长协再次全面倒挂，底部临近，盼政策 行情回顾（2025.12.22~2025.12.26）： 中信煤炭指数 3619.74 点，下降 0.89%，跑输沪深 300 指数 2.84pct，位列中信 板块涨跌幅榜第 28 位。 本轮煤价自 11 月中旬下跌至今，累计跌幅 144 元/吨（831 元/吨→687 元/ 吨），其背后核心原因在于火电发电量严重不及预期（据国家统计局报道，11 月 我国规上火电发电量同比下降 4.2%），一方面因今年冷冬预期未能兑现；一方 面因风光出力较好，对火电造成明显挤压。此外，进入采暖季后，相关部门重提 能源保供，11 月我国原煤日均产量 1423 万吨，创年内新高（符合预期，22 年 ~24 年期间，每年 11 月均是全年产量高点）。 当前，煤价若需止跌回升，需具备下述任意条件之一： 重点领域分析： 增持（维持） 行业走势 -20% -12% -4% 4% 12% 20% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 2025-12 煤炭开采 沪深300 作者 分析师 张津铭 ...

证券研究报告 | 固定收益定期 gszqdatemark 2025 12 28 年 月 日 分析师 杨业伟 首先，从直接的外资配债行为来看，主要对存单产生负面影响，但冲击已经到 后半程，预计明年 1 季度后冲击将逐步退出。由于中外利率持续倒挂以及远 期汇率影响，外资对国债和政金债的配置与利率相关性在近年显著下降。而且 在近期汇率升值过程中，外资也并未增加政府债券配置。外资对国债和政金债 的持有规模从今年 4 月的 2.92 万亿下降至 11 月的 2.75 万亿，显示升值并未 吸引外资流入增配利率债。相对来说，外资对国内债券配置变化近年更多体现 为存单。此前汇率存在贬值压力时期，外汇市场远期升水较高，即期市场外资 流入，并增配存单以获取外部市场的收益。但近期随着人民币汇率升值，汇率 远期升水下降，升水率从 2024 年中 4%左右下降至目前 1.6%左右，外资持 有存单和远期汇率锁定的收益低于外部例如 1 年美债收益率，导致外资持续 流出。外资持有存单规模从今年 4 月的 1.30 万亿下降至 11 月的 0.69 万亿。 因而汇率升值从外资配置需求来看，主要降低存单配置力量。但考虑到目前外 资持有存单规模已 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the commercial aerospace sector [1]. Core Insights - The commercial aerospace sector is expected to experience significant growth driven by a combination of fundamental improvements and policy support, with a notable emphasis on becoming a "space power" as highlighted in the recent Fourth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee [2][15]. - The report outlines a multi-faceted catalyst for growth, including accelerated satellite launch schedules, technological breakthroughs in reusable rockets, and a series of supportive policies from the government aimed at enhancing the commercial aerospace landscape [2][15]. Summary by Sections Policy Developments - The Fourth Plenary Session on October 23, 2025, emphasized the importance of building a manufacturing and aerospace power, leading to the establishment of a dedicated Commercial Aerospace Office to streamline regulatory processes [2][15]. - A series of policies have been introduced to promote high-quality development in commercial aerospace, including a plan to integrate commercial aerospace into the national development framework by 2027 [2][15]. Industry Developments - The report notes that over 50,000 low-orbit satellites have been proposed, with major projects like the China Star Network and the Shanghai Yanjin Thousand Sail Constellation leading the way [3][17]. - The expected launch rate is projected to increase significantly, with an average of approximately 2,776 satellites to be launched annually from 2026 to 2035 [3][17]. Financing Support - Recent policies have focused on facilitating private investment in commercial aerospace, with measures to support IPOs for companies in this sector, including Blue Arrow Aerospace and Star River Power [4][20]. - Local governments are also providing substantial subsidies to enhance the financing environment for satellite manufacturing and launch services [4][20]. Key Investment Targets 1. **Shanghai Port Bay**: A leader in satellite energy systems, with significant growth potential in perovskite solar cells, which are expected to see increased adoption due to cost advantages [5][21]. 2. **Dongzhu Ecology**: Engaged in acquiring a majority stake in Kai Rui Xing Tong to enter the satellite communication sector, with strong growth in revenue and profitability anticipated post-acquisition [9][22]. 3. **Other Notable Companies**: Companies such as Jintanlang, Zhongheng Design, and others are also highlighted for their involvement in various aspects of the commercial aerospace industry, including satellite energy, communication, and launch facilities [9][30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4] Core Views - The report emphasizes that policy adjustments are being driven by fundamental pressures, suggesting that the current policy intensity may exceed that of 2008 and 2014, indicating ongoing developments in the sector [4] - Real estate is viewed as an early-cycle indicator, serving as a barometer for economic trends, thus making it a strategic investment choice [4] - The competitive landscape in the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private companies performing well in land acquisition and sales [4] - The report continues to favor investment in first-tier cities and select second- and third-tier cities, which have shown better performance during sales rebounds [4] - Supply-side policies, including land storage and management of idle land, are highlighted as critical areas to monitor, with expectations that first- and second-tier cities will benefit more from these changes [4] Summary by Sections New Housing Transactions - In the week, new housing transaction area across 30 cities was 241.0 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 15.5% but a year-on-year decrease of 41.5% [2][25] - First-tier cities recorded a new housing transaction area of 53.9 million square meters, down 0.4% month-on-month and down 41.3% year-on-year [2][25] - Second-tier cities saw a transaction area of 146.8 million square meters, up 21.7% month-on-month but down 40.6% year-on-year [2][25] - Third-tier cities had a transaction area of 40.4 million square meters, up 18.7% month-on-month but down 45.1% year-on-year [2][25] Secondary Housing Transactions - The total area of secondary housing transactions in 14 sample cities was 208.0 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 3.8% but a year-on-year decrease of 22.9% [32] - First-tier cities accounted for 89.3 million square meters, up 2.2% month-on-month [32] - Second-tier cities had 83.7 million square meters, down 1.8% month-on-month [32] - Third-tier cities recorded 35.0 million square meters, up 25.9% month-on-month [32] Credit Bonds - During the week (December 22-28), six credit bonds were issued by real estate companies, totaling 4.732 billion yuan, an increase of 0.402 billion yuan from the previous week [3][40] - The total repayment amount was 6.517 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.964 billion yuan, resulting in a net financing amount of -1.785 billion yuan, which is an increase of 1.366 billion yuan from the previous week [3][40]

证券研究报告 | 行业深度 gszqdatemark 2025 12 28 年 月 日 电子 高速率光芯片前景广阔，看好光芯片景气周期 光芯片是光模块的核心，高速率光芯片前景广阔。激光器芯片和探测器芯 片合称为光芯片，光芯片是光器件中的核心元器件，主要用于光电信号转 换和处理，是光模块的核心组成部分，激光器芯片按出光结构可进一步分 为面发射芯片和边发射芯片，面发射芯片包括 VCSEL 芯片，边发射芯片包 括 FP、DFB 和 EML 芯片；探测器芯片主要有 PIN、APD、SPAD、SiPM。 其中，EML 技术门槛较高，AI 需求致高端 EML 产能紧缺，供应排至 2027 年后，2024 年全球 EML 激光芯片市场规模达 37.1 亿元，预计 2030 年将 增长至 74.12 亿元，年复合增长率 12.23%，目前 EML 芯片由少数国际巨 头主导，主要的供应商包括 Lumentum、Coherent（Finisar 菲尼萨）、 Mitsubishi（三菱）、Sumitomo（住友）、Broadcom（博通）等。 硅光模块具有高集成、低功耗、低成本、适合高速短距传输的特点，推动 CW 激光器需求提升。 ...

证券研究报告|行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 12 28 年 月 日 通信 回归业绩主线 随着年末临近，预告将近，建议回归业绩主线。根据交易所规则，若 年度净利润同比变动幅度超过 50%，公司需在次年 1 月 31 日前发布 业绩预告，这为投资者提供了一个业绩观察窗口。市场对通信行业的 业绩普遍预期不低，四季度正是承前启后的关键时期，1 月份的预告 将给出业绩区间，奠定增速基调，对明年上半年的业绩起了指引作用。 【业绩预告规则详解，关键的观察窗口】 业绩预告是上市公司对当期财务业绩的初步估算，旨在提前向市场提 示重大业绩变动，是投资决策的重要前瞻性指标。 强制披露的核心情形：根据沪深交易所上市规则，无论主板、创业板 还是科创板，在年度报告方面，若预计出现以下情形之一，公司必须 进行业绩预告： 统一的披露时限：对于上述情形的年度业绩预告，披露截止日期为会 计年度结束之日起一个月内，即次年的 1 月 31 日之前。因此，每年 1 月是业绩预告的密集发布期，也是验证市场对上市公司年度业绩预期 的关键时期。 【业绩预判方法论：两种基于三季报的估算路径】 在年度报告和正式业绩预告发布前，投资者可基于已披露 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 12 28 年 月 日 基础化工 商业航天乘风起，关注 3D 打印及上游材料 事件：商业火箭企业科创板第五套上市标准发布，全球商业航天有望迎来 "上市潮"。12 月 26 日晚间，上交所正式发布《上海证券交易所发行上 市审核规则适用指引第 9 号——商业火箭企业适用科创板第五套上市标 准》，更好支持尚未形成一定收入规模的优质商业火箭企业适用第五套上 市标准，加快推进商业航天创新发展、主动服务航天强国战略。美国方面， 根据《华尔街日报》和彭博社报道，SpaceX 目标在 2026 年中后期完成 IPO，计划募资规模远超 300 亿美元，目标估值高达 1.5 万亿美元。若实 现，将一举超越 2019 年沙特阿美创下的 290 亿美元纪录，成为世界历史 上最大规模的 IPO。国内方面，根据《《科创板日报》统计，目前已有至少 10 家商业航天企业开启 IPO 进程，5 家主营业务为运载火箭，分别为蓝箭 航天、星际荣耀、中科宇航、星河动力、天兵科技。 商业航天万亿市场，迎来全球共振。商业航天是推动航天产业发展、建设 航天强国的重要力量，目前已进入全球共振阶 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the textile and apparel sector, including Anta Sports, Li Ning, and Shenzhou International, with corresponding PE ratios for FY2026 of 14, 18, and 11 respectively [4][9][21]. Core Insights - Lululemon's FY2025 Q3 revenue increased by 7% year-on-year to $2.6 billion, with a notable 33% growth in international business, particularly in mainland China, which saw a 46% increase [1][12]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of the sports footwear and apparel sector amidst a volatile consumption environment, predicting long-term growth potential [3][19]. - The report highlights the expectation of improved orders in the apparel manufacturing sector for 2026, driven by healthy inventory levels and anticipated replenishment from downstream [19][20]. Summary by Sections Lululemon's Performance - Lululemon's Q3 revenue reached $2.6 billion, with a 7% year-on-year growth, while gross profit increased by 2% to $1.4 billion, although gross margin decreased by 2.9 percentage points to 55.6% due to higher tariffs and promotional discounts [1][12]. - The company expects FY2025 revenue growth of 4%, with a potential increase of 5% to 6% when adjusted for a comparable 52-week basis [1][12]. Regional Performance - In the Americas, Q3 revenue declined by 2%, with the U.S. down 3% and Canada down 1%, while the international segment grew by 33%, driven by a 46% increase in mainland China [2][16]. - The outlook for FY2025 suggests a stable performance in the Americas, with expected revenue changes between a decline of 1% to flat [2][16]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends high-quality stocks in the sports footwear and apparel sector, including Anta Sports and Li Ning, while also suggesting attention to companies like Nike's Greater China retailer, Tmall, which has a PE of 14 for FY2026 [3][19]. - In the apparel manufacturing sector, Shenzhou International and Huayi Group are highlighted as attractive investments due to their competitive valuations and positive customer trends [19][20]. Market Trends - The textile and apparel sector is expected to outperform the broader market, with a focus on companies that demonstrate strong inventory management and growth potential [3][19]. - The report notes that the textile and apparel sector has underperformed compared to the broader market indices, indicating potential for recovery [23].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 12 28 年 月 日 交通运输 国际航线旅客周转亮眼，海外电商双十二 GMV 激增 周观点：2025 年 10 月、11 月，国际航线旅客周转量同比 2019 年同期分别 增长 12.9%、14.3%，增速加快。航班管家数据显示，截至 12 月 22 日，2026 年元旦假期经济舱平均票价（不含税）597 元，同比 2024 年下降 1.1%、同 比 2025 年增长 6.7%。继续看好"扩内需"及"反内卷"下航空板块中长期 景气度。TikTok Shop 东南亚"12.12"大促 GMV 同比飙升 2.7 倍。海外电商 GMV 的爆发式增长带动快递业务量迅猛增长，相关标的为极兔速递。 行情回顾：本周交通运输板块行业指数上涨 1.37%，跑输上证指数 0.51 个百 分点（上证指数上涨 1.88%）。从申万交通运输行业三级分类看，涨幅前三名 的板块分别为航运、公交、物流，涨幅分别为 4.70%、4.65%、1.96%；仅航 空运输、铁路运输板块下跌，跌幅分别为-0.75%、-0.73%。 出行：2025 年 1-11 月，民航旅客周转量 12, ...