A 股景气指数观察。截至 2025 年 7 月 11 日，A 股景气指数为 21.73，相 比 2023 年底上升 16.30，当前处于上升周期中。 证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 07 13 年 月 日 量化周报 市场震荡整理后有望再上一个台阶 市场震荡整理后有望再上一个台阶。本周（ 7.7-7.11），大盘继续震荡上行， 上证指数全周收涨 1.09%。在此背景下，基础化工、农林牧渔确认周线级 别上涨，机械、建材、地产确认日线级别上涨。当下，我们认为市场再次 回到 4 月 7 日低点的概率基本不存在了。由于上证指数、上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000、深证成指、创业板指仍处于日线级别上涨中， 且还有部分指数和板块没有确认日线上涨，因此我们认为市场的日线级别 上涨还要持续一段时间，但由于市场在周五收了长上影线，因此震荡整理 在所难免，震荡过后，市场有望再上一个台阶。中期来看，上证指数、上 证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、深证成指、创业板指、科创 50 纷纷确认周 线级别上涨，而且在日线上只走出了 1-3 浪结构，中期牛市刚刚开始；此 外，已有 23 个 ...

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 07 12 年 月 日 量化分析报告 择时雷达六面图：本周估值、宏观与拥挤度指标弱化 择时雷达六面图：基于多维视角的择时框架。权益市场的表现受到多维度 指标因素的共同影响，我们尝试从流动性、经济面、估值面、资金面、技 术面、拥挤度选取二十一个指标对市场进行刻画，并将其概括为"估值性 价比"、"宏观基本面"、"资金&趋势"、"拥挤度&反转"四大类，从而生成 [-1,1]之间的综合择时分数。 本周综合打分。本周市场的估值性价比、宏观基本面、拥挤度&反转分数 下降，资金&趋势分数变化不大，综合打分位于[-1,1]之间，当前的综合打 分为-0.16 分，整体为中性偏空观点。当前六面图各个维度的观点如下： 流动性。本周货币强度、信用强度发出看空信号，货币方向、信用方向 发出看多信号，当前流动性得分为 0.00 分，综合来看信号中性。 经济面。本周增长强度、通胀方向指标发出看多信号，增长方向发出看 空信号，当前经济面得分为 0.25 分，综合来看发出中性偏多信号。 估值面。本周席勒 ERP、PB 与 AIAE 指标分数下降，当前市场的估值 面得分为-0.39 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" for the stock 兴业银锡 (000426.SZ) with projected EPS growth from 0.86 in 2024 to 1.76 in 2027, and a decreasing PE ratio from 18.90 to 10.05 over the same period [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant misunderstanding regarding silver's price drivers, emphasizing that while industrial demand constitutes nearly 60% of silver's usage, its long-term price correlation is more closely aligned with gold rather than industrial factors [1][11]. - Investment demand is identified as the primary driver of silver's total demand fluctuations, with a noted decline from a peak of 10,522 tons in 2022 to an estimated 5,939 tons in 2024 due to Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. However, the report suggests that there is substantial demand elasticity in this sector, which could counterbalance the impact of rising silver prices on industrial demand [1][18]. - The report argues against the notion that declining photovoltaic (PV) demand will negatively impact silver, citing historical trends where investment demand has compensated for drops in industrial demand. The PV sector contributed 78% of silver's demand growth from 2019 to 2024, despite concerns about slowing growth [2][24][25]. - The report also discusses the silver-gold ratio, suggesting that historical patterns indicate silver often outperforms gold during economic recoveries, even in periods of stagflation. The analysis of past market conditions shows that silver prices can rise significantly, even when industrial demand is under pressure [3][37][38]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Misconceptions about Silver's Price Drivers - Silver's long-term price trends are more aligned with gold than industrial demand, which primarily affects short-term fluctuations [1][14]. - Investment demand is the dominant factor influencing silver's price, with a strong positive correlation observed [1][18]. Section 2: Photovoltaic Demand and Silver - The photovoltaic sector has been a major growth driver for silver demand, with expectations of continued demand despite potential slowdowns [2][24]. - Historical data indicates that declines in specific industrial demands, such as photography, did not hinder silver's performance in past bull markets [2][25]. Section 3: Silver-Gold Ratio and Economic Conditions - The report highlights that silver has historically outperformed gold during economic recoveries, even in stagflation scenarios [3][37]. - The potential for silver price increases remains strong, supported by historical performance during similar economic conditions [3][38].

证券研究报告 | 策略研究 gszqdatemark 2025 07 14 年 月 日 投资策略 国有大行强上涨趋势是否终结？ 一、策略专题：国有大行强上涨趋势是否终结？ 1.1 长期视角：宏观叙事驱动的强上涨趋势可能有多段 梳理 2016 年至今出现的行业强上涨趋势，其底层逻辑主要有两类。第一 类是宏观叙事驱动：2016~2018 年白酒、白色家电强势上涨，彼时经济复 苏提振后周期行业盈利预期，同时资金对稳定高 ROE 所反映的股东回报 也愈发青睐；2020~2021 年白酒、白色家电再次出现强上涨趋势，在经济 面临不确定性的背景下，稳定的盈利能力较为稀缺。第二类则为产业景气 驱动，包括 2019~2021 年的半导体，2020~2022 年的电池、光伏设备。 两类行业虽同为强上涨趋势，但具体表现存在差异。历史经验看，宏观叙 事的影响时间较长，对应行业可能出现多段上涨趋势，白酒、白色家电在 2016~2021 年期间均出现三轮大级别的股价上涨。产业景气驱动下的行 业强上涨趋势则具体表现为一次二波，即行业一次性走出极强的上涨趋 势，期间又分为第一波的景气启动、第二波的景气兑现，两波之间有一段 不算太长的过渡期 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company has successfully completed trial production of its innovative mixed waste plastic resource utilization project, marking a significant milestone in addressing global plastic pollution [1][2] - The proprietary CPDCC technology developed by the company allows for high yield and efficient processing of mixed waste plastics, achieving a product yield of over 92% [1][2] - The project has the potential to significantly impact the chemical industry by converting waste plastics into high-value chemical raw materials, with the possibility of replacing 100 million tons of crude oil annually in China [2] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 1.77 billion, 2.75 billion, and 4.20 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 170 million, 500 million, and 880 million yuan [3] - The company is expected to experience substantial growth, with a projected revenue growth rate of 53.7% in 2025 and 53.0% in 2027 [4] - The company's P/E ratios are projected to decrease from 278.4 in 2025 to 54.4 in 2027, indicating improving profitability [3][4]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 gszqdatemark 2025 07 14 年 月 日 2025H1 量价拆分：铜金产量双位数增长，金价同比增长 39.5%。 2025Q2 量价拆分：矿产金量价大幅提升，或为公司主要业绩增长点。 年内公司完成加纳 Akyem 金矿交割，拟收购哈国 RG 金矿项目，助力公 司完成 2028 年矿产金 100-110 吨规划目标。 2025 年 4 月 17 日，公司通过境外全资子公司完成收购纽蒙特旗下加纳 Akyem 金矿 100%权益。加纳金矿 2021-2024 年黄金产量分别为 11.9/13.1/9.2/6.4 吨。2023 年度实现销售收入 5.74 亿美元，净利润 1.28 亿美元。 2025 年 7 月 1 日，公司公告拟以全资子公司紫金黄金国际（拟分拆至香 港联合交易所上市的主体），拟以 12 亿美元对价，收购 Cantech 持有的 RG 金矿项目 100%权益，RG 金矿项目保有资源量（金价 2000 美元/盎 司）：控制+推断级别矿石量 2.41 亿吨，金平均品位 1.01 克/吨，金金属 量 242.1 吨，项目剩余服务年限 16 年（2025 年至 2 ...

REITs 二级市场表现 本周 C-REITs 二级市场呈现回调行情；其中生态环保、仓储物流板块 REITs 回调幅度较小，保障房、产业园区板块 REITs 跌幅较大。截至 7.11， 已上市 REITs 总市值约 2051.6 亿元，平均单只 REIT 市值约 30 亿元。本 周已上市 REITs 中 8 支上涨、60 支下跌，周均涨幅为-1.54%；其中嘉实 京东仓储基础设施 REIT、中金中国绿发商业资产 REIT 涨幅靠前。数据上 本周仓储物流/产业园区/保障房/交通基础设施/能源基础设施/生态环保/ 消费基础设施/水利设施 REITs 板块二级市场涨幅分别为-0.48%/- 2.09%/-2.86%/-1.09%/-0.55%/-0.41%/-2.05%/-1.28%。 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 07 14 年 月 日 房地产 C-REITs 周报——华润商业 REIT 启动二次扩募，关注龙头效益 REITs 指数表现 本周中证 REITs 全收益指数下跌 1.12%。截至 7.11，本周（7.5-7.11， 下同）中证 REITs(收盘)指数下跌 1.12%， ...

证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 07 14 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 市场震荡整理后有望再上一个台阶 今日概览 ◼ 重磅研报 【宏观】高频半月观—地产销售再弱，"反内卷"催化商品价格—— 20250713 【金融工程】市场震荡整理后有望再上一个台阶——20250713 【金融工程】择时雷达六面图：本周估值、宏观与拥挤度指标弱化—— 20250712 【固定收益】再论股债跷跷板——20250713 【固定收益】票据利率创年内新低——流动性和机构行为跟踪—— 20250712 【银行】本周聚焦—上半年有多少 ETF 资金流入银行板块？—— 20250713 ◼ 研究视点 【电力设备】光伏涨价继续，我国首款四座氢燃料电池飞机 RX4M 首飞 成功——20250713 【煤炭】高温炙烤，火力全开，价跳涨、时已至——20250713 【基础化工】关注 AI for Science 赋能化学研发——20250713 【纺织服饰】周专题：服饰制造公司 6 月营收公布，环比 5 月改善—— 20250713 【传媒】Grok 4 正式发布，豆神教育推出 AI class——20250713 【能源 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 07 13 年 月 日 房地产开发 2025W28：7 月首周新房成交明显下降，上半年土地市场分化演绎 新房：本周新房成交环比明显下降，主要是 7 月是传统上地产淡季，并且 上周数据涵盖 6 月末，因此环比基数也比较高。但本周季节性偏弱、量能 位于今年以来低点，也反映了现阶段新房市场较低迷的环境，仍有待政策 端进一步加码。本周 30 个城市新房成交面积为 131.0 万平方米，环比下 降 54.8%，同比下降 20.2%，其中样本一线城市的新房成交面积为 32.8 万方，环比-60.2%，同比-37.5%；样本二线城市为 61.4 万方，环比-57.0%， 同比-20.3%；样本三线城市为 36.9 万方，环比-43.3%，同比+6.1%。从 今年累计 28 周新房成交面积同比看，样本 30 城共计 5517.6 万方，同比 +0.9%；一线城市为 1444.6 万方，同比+8.8%；二线城市为 2637.3 万 方，同比-3.9%；三线城市为 1435.6 万方，同比+2.8%。 二手房：本周 14 个样本城市二手房成交面积合计 188.2 万 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for major construction enterprises, indicating a significant demand for rebound in the construction sector compared to the banking sector [8][31]. Core Insights - The domestic construction industry has evolved into a model with financial attributes similar to banks, where construction companies provide financing to clients, thus resembling "shadow banks" [1][14]. - The construction sector has lagged behind the banking sector in terms of stock performance, with a 76.1% increase in the banking sector since December 20, 2023, compared to only 13.5% in the construction sector, indicating a clear need for catch-up [2][15]. - The dividend yield of leading construction state-owned enterprises (SOEs) is attractive, with several companies offering yields above 3% in A-shares and over 5% in H-shares, making them appealing for long-term investors [3][22]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Industry Overview - The construction industry operates with a business model that has financial characteristics, requiring companies to provide upfront financing to secure projects, which has led to a high-leverage, asset-heavy structure [1][14]. - Major assets of construction firms include cash and receivables, which are akin to financial assets, while liabilities are primarily operational debts, similar to bank deposits [1][14]. Section 2: Market Performance - The construction sector's performance has been hindered by concerns over slow repayments from government and real estate developers, but these pessimistic expectations are now largely priced in, suggesting a potential for valuation recovery [2][15]. - The report highlights that the construction sector's valuation has been stabilizing, indicating a potential for upward movement as market conditions improve [2][15]. Section 3: Dividend Appeal - A-shares of leading construction SOEs show a competitive dividend yield, with companies like China Railway, China Railway Construction, and China Communications Construction yielding over 3% [3][22]. - In H-shares, the average dividend yield for construction SOEs matches that of leading banks, reflecting strong investment attractiveness [3][22]. Section 4: Policy Impact - Upcoming policies are expected to accelerate infrastructure project implementation, which, combined with a low base effect, may lead to improved revenue and performance for construction SOEs in the latter half of the year [4][26]. - The report anticipates that fiscal policies will be enhanced, with an increase in the issuance of special bonds and other financing tools to support infrastructure development [4][26]. Section 5: Competitive Landscape - The construction industry is witnessing a push against "involution" or excessive competition, with major players advocating for a focus on sustainable growth and innovation rather than aggressive expansion [7][30]. - This initiative aims to improve project profitability and stabilize the competitive environment within the industry [7][30]. Section 6: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in undervalued construction SOEs, highlighting companies such as China Energy Engineering, China State Construction, and China Communications Construction as key targets for investment [8][31]. - The expected recovery in earnings and the attractive dividend yields position these companies favorably for long-term investment [8][31].