Core Insights - The report highlights that in June, the top 100 real estate companies experienced a month-on-month sales increase, but the year-on-year decline has widened due to supply constraints and a high base from the previous year [6][7]. Real Estate Sector Summary - In the first half of 2025, the top 100 real estate companies achieved a total sales amount of 16,526.9 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 10.8%, which is a 3.7 percentage point decline compared to the previous month [6]. - For June alone, the top 100 companies recorded a sales amount of 3,389.8 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 22.8% but a month-on-month increase of 14.7% [7]. - The report maintains an "overweight" rating for the real estate sector, emphasizing the importance of policy-driven market dynamics and the potential for quality real estate companies to benefit from improved competitive conditions [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on real estate stocks due to several factors, including the expectation of stronger policy support compared to previous years and the sector's role as an economic indicator [8]. - Specific investment directions include quality companies in first-tier and select second-tier cities, as well as local state-owned enterprises and property management firms [8].

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 07 01 年 月 日 量化点评报告 七月配置建议：不轻易低配 A 股 资产配置：A 股配置价值相对较高。 1）A 股：高赔率-中等胜率品种。基于 ERP 和 DRP 的标准化数值等权计 算 A 股赔率，截至 6 月底 A 股赔率为 1.2 倍标准差，仍然处于较高水平； 近期降准降息以及信贷见底推动 A 股胜率回升至 0 轴附近，但增长方向仍 然为负，A 股胜率预计仍维持在中等水平。 2）债券：极低赔率-高胜率品种。当前债券赔率处于-1.5 倍标准差的极低 水平，表明长债仍存在一定估值风险；近期债券胜率指标由于货币宽松和 增长下行上行至 20%的较高水平，若信用和增长筑底回升可能压低胜率。 3）美股：极低赔率-中高胜率品种。美股 AIAE 指标当前位于 52%的极高 水平，处于历史 99.7%分位数，回撤风险仍然较高；美联储流动性指数当 前位于 20%的中高水平，表明美联储流动性较为宽松，我们将持续关注后 续信号是否发生转向，若转向美股则回到一季度低赔率-低胜率状态，配置 价值进一步降低。 风格配置：价值风格微观打分最高。价值风格微观打分最高：当 ...

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 07 01 年 月 日 量化分析报告 "薪火"量化分析系列研究（五） 如何利用 DeepSeek 辅助降低跟踪误差 研究背景：证监会于近期发布了《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》，基 金管理者未来或将更加重视基准，锚定基准创造超额收益。本篇报告结合 上述热点话题，探索 DeepSeek 能否辅助基金管理者降低产品相对于基准 的跟踪误差。具体地，本报告首先利用 DeepSeek 的联网搜索、深度思考 功能给出降低跟踪误差的方案，接着按照其给出的方案，要求 DeepSeek 设计策略落地方法及组合构建代码，展示对应方案下组合的改进效果。 方案①：核心卫星化，增加基准成份股权重 DeepSeek 给出的最容易实现降低跟踪误差的方法为核心卫星化：拿出部 分仓位直接配置基准指数，剩余仓位进行主动管理。针对核心卫星化方案， DeepSeek 给出了通过网格搜索法获得最优参数、构建组合的代码。此外， 针对基准指数成份股太多、较难完全复制的问题，DeepSeek 进一步给出 了基准指数替代组合的构建方法。 方案②：行业中性化，专注于选股打败行业指数 作者 分析师 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业深度 gszqdatemark 2025 07 02 年 月 日 电力设备 从电价逻辑探讨海外工商储需求空间–欧洲、东南亚和非洲市场 2025 年来，我们注意到海外工商储需求快速爆发。本篇报告我们拟从电 价角度探讨三个问题：1）海外工商储需求为何爆发？2）降本后工商储经 济性如何？3）怎么看海外工商储需求空间？ 工商储供需探讨：电价政策&应急备电为工商储底层需求，系统成本下降 带动需求进一步放量。需求端：1）欧洲：工业电价水平远高于美国，配 备工商储可平滑发电波动，降低企业端用电成本。2）东南亚：发电成本 （煤炭、天然气价格上涨）上升推高当地电价，高性价比离网储能预计为 主流需求。3）非洲：当地停电频发+电价高增，催化并离网切换及离网备 电需求。供给端：碳酸锂价格和光伏组件价格持续下行，2025 年 2 月工 商储系统中标价格降至 0.6 元/Wh，模块化产品形态可适配多种场景。 浅析海外电价：欧洲小型工商业主用电成本最高，东南亚电费相对水平高 于中国，非洲电价高增催化企业端工商储应急备电&降本需求。 工商储需求空间：我们测算欧洲仅小型工商储空间约 66GWh，东南亚、 非洲（矿山场景） ...

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 gszqdatemark 2025 07 02 年 月 日 房地产 6 月百强房企月度销售报告：6 月年中冲刺，百强房企销售额环比增长但同比降幅扩大 6 月为房企半年度业绩冲刺节点，百强房企销售金额环比增长，但受供应约束以 及上年高基数影响，同比仍呈现下降趋势且降幅扩大。从累计情况看，1-6 月 TOP100 房企实现操盘口径销售金额 16526.9 亿元，同比降低 10.8%，较上月累 计同比降低 3.7pct；权益口径销售金额为 13013.6 亿元，同比降低 11.5%，较上 月累计同比降低 4.9pct。从 6 月单月情况看，TOP100 房企实现单月操盘口径销售 金额 3389.8 亿元，同比降低 22.8%，环比增长 14.7%；权益口径销售金额 2667.2 亿元，同比降低 26.4%，环比增长 15.1%。 上半年不同梯队房企销售额同比均下跌，其中 TOP21-30 和 TOP31-50 房企跌 幅较小。从 2025 年 1-6 月操盘口径销售金额来看，跌幅最小的是 TOP21-30 房 企，同比下降 1.0%；TOP31-50 房企排名第 2，同比下降 3.0%。 ...

Group 1: Market Overview and Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of actively participating in market breakthroughs and focusing on performance pricing cues, particularly in sectors like consumer goods, precious metals, and engineering machinery [2] - In June, despite increased geopolitical tensions, risk appetite improved overall, leading to a recovery in equity assets, with major indices in A-shares experiencing upward breakthroughs [2] - The report suggests increasing trading positions to capitalize on strong breakout directions while prioritizing performance certainty in investment allocations [2] Group 2: Financial Engineering and Investment Value - The report discusses the use of DeepSeek to assist fund managers in reducing tracking errors relative to benchmarks, highlighting its capabilities in strategy implementation and code generation [3][4] - The analysis of the 华夏中证生物科技主题 ETF indicates that the demand for innovative drugs is driven by structural upgrades and policy support, with a significant increase in the number of innovative drugs included in the national medical insurance directory [6][7] - The 中证生物科技主题指数 reflects the overall performance of biotechnology stocks, with a focus on sectors like biopharmaceuticals and medical devices, indicating a high concentration of leading companies [8] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - The report on 容知日新 (688768.SH) highlights its strong gross margin above 60% and net margin near 20%, driven by predictive maintenance solutions that align with industry trends [12] - Revenue projections for 容知日新 are set at 7.91 billion, 10.23 billion, and 12.88 billion CNY for 2025-2027, with corresponding net profits of 1.44 billion, 1.94 billion, and 2.56 billion CNY, indicating robust growth potential [12] - The report on the domestic optical module market suggests that companies like 华工科技 and 中际旭创 are well-positioned to benefit from high demand and supply shortages in the optical communication sector [16] Group 4: Emerging Trends and Innovations - The report notes that the pain relief market is evolving with a shift towards non-opioid medications, driven by innovations in pain management mechanisms [16] - The entry of Robinhood into the tokenized U.S. stock market is expected to accelerate the development of this sector, potentially leading to significant regulatory advancements [14][15] - The analysis of the biotechnology sector indicates a strong long-term growth outlook due to aging demographics and increasing healthcare spending, with innovative drugs gaining traction in the market [7][8]

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 gszqdatemark 2025 07 01 年 月 日 通信 国产光模块迎来业绩收获期 事件：5 月 21 日工信部印发《算力互联互通行动计划》，要求到 2028 年，基本实现全国公共算力标准化互联，逐步形成具备智能感知、实时发 现、随需获取的算力互联网，为国内算力产业注入强劲动力。 华工科技：产能持续扩张，AI 驱动光模块需求激增。 光模块持续放量，全产业链有望受益。除华工科技以外，其他光通信企业 同样有望受益于光通信高景气度，龙头及稀缺企业有望率先受益。如中际 旭创、新易盛等有望凭借其技术与客户优势进一步巩固市场地位；光模块 上游光器件厂商由于其稀缺性特点也将迎来较大成长空间，如 EML、CW 光源等面临供给短缺问题，国内少数具有技术先发优势的供应商如仕佳光 子、光迅科技、源杰科技等有望通过其技术壁垒具备显著竞争优势。 风险提示：下游需求不及预期，市场竞争风险，地缘政治风险。 增持（维持） 行业走势 -20% -8% 4% 16% 28% 40% 2024-07 2024-10 2025-02 2025-06 通信 沪深300 作者 分析师 宋嘉吉 执业证书编号：S0680 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry [4]. Core Insights - The pain management market is expected to grow significantly, with a projected increase from USD 79.4 billion in 2021 to USD 120.7 billion by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.39% [1]. - There is a shift towards diversified pain relief mechanisms to mitigate addiction risks associated with opioid medications, with non-opioid drugs expected to gain market share [1][6]. - The KOR agonist class represents a promising new direction for postoperative pain management, showing significant efficacy without central side effects [2][6]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The chronic disease prevalence and aging population in China are driving the demand for pain management solutions, despite regulatory challenges and market structure issues [1]. - Current mainstream pain medications include opioids and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), both of which have limitations due to side effects and addiction risks [1]. Innovative Solutions - KOR agonists, such as Vertex's Journavx, have been approved for acute pain treatment, targeting peripheral nervous systems to avoid central side effects [2]. - The P2X receptor class is emerging as a new target for non-opioid pain relief, suitable for chronic pain and cancer pain management [3]. Clinical Developments - The STC007 injection by Sunshine Nuohuo has shown promising results in clinical trials for postoperative pain, demonstrating efficacy comparable to traditional treatments with fewer side effects [5][7]. - The report highlights the potential for STC007 to fill a gap in the market for KOR agonists in postoperative pain management, emphasizing its rapid onset and strong analgesic effects [6][7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests continued attention to companies at the forefront of pain management innovations, such as Sunshine Nuohuo, Hengrui Medicine, Haizhu Pharmaceutical, and Renfu Pharmaceutical, as the market for pain relief solutions expands [6].

证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 07 01 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 积极参与突破，重视业绩定价 今日概览 重磅研报 【宏观】6 月 PMI 延续反弹的背后——20250630 【策略】7 月策略观点与金股推荐：积极参与突破，重视业绩定价—— 20250630 【海外】关注相关政策和旺季催化——2025 年 7 月海外金股推荐—— 20250630 【策略】中报业绩线索的交易思路——20250630 【固定收益】乘用车零售批发回升——基本面高频数据跟踪—— 20250630 【固定收益】踏着熟悉的节奏——2025 年债市中期策略——20250630 【轻工制造】新型烟草大势所趋，龙头全面发力 HNB，我国企业有望受 益几何？——20250630 【电子】硬蛋创新（00400.HK）-稀缺 AI 算力芯片供应商，硬件+软件 平台化布局——20250630 研究视点 【计算机】重要虚拟资产牌照获批，金融创新加速落地——20250630 【环保】绿色低碳建设加速推进，碳足迹管理迎新机遇——20250630 作者 | 分析师 顾晟 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | - ...

证券研究报告 | 策略报告 gszqdatemark 2025 06 30 年 月 日 关注相关政策和旺季催化——2025 年 7 月海外金股推荐 近期重点事件： 关注 7 月关税政策、政治局会议、国常会等。央视新闻指出，7 月 9 日是美国政府暂 停征收所谓"对等关税"90 天的截止期限。而白宫的最近表态显示，特朗普政府可能 推迟这个截止期。国内政策方面，按惯例年中政治局会议一般于 7 月底召开，重点关注 对经济形势和下半年政策的定调。 6 月 24 日，国新办举行发布会，会上提及阅兵相关内容。阅兵领导小组办公室副主 任、军委联合参谋部作战局少将副局长吴泽棵表示，这次参阅的所有装备均为国产现役 主战装备，我们在展示新一代传统武器装备的基础上，也安排部分无人智能、水下作 战、网电攻防、高超声速等新型作战力量参阅，体现我军适应科技发展和战争形态演 变、打赢未来战争的强大能力。 特斯拉 Robotaxi 开始运营，小米 Yu7 需求火爆，继续关注国内整车厂新车及智驾模 型迭代情况。当地时间 6 月 22 日，特斯拉的 Robotaxi（无人驾驶出租车）正式在美国 得州奥斯汀开始运营。上线首日共有 35 辆车，车费 ...