证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 09 02 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 优选景气轮动，博弈产业催化 今日概览 ◼ 研究视点 【计算机】新大陆（000997.SZ）-25H1 业绩符合预期，跨境支付及数字 ID 领军持续验证——20250901 【房地产】C-REITs 周报——估值修复，首单外资消费 C-REIT 获批—— 20250901 【汽车】双林股份（300100.SZ）-2025Q2 扣非同比高增，丝杠项目落地 加速——20250901 【汽车】豪能股份（603809.SH）-整体经营向上，机器人产品进展顺利 ——20250901 ◼ 重磅研报 【策略】9 月策略观点与金股推荐：优选景气轮动，博弈产业催化—— 20250901 【海外】海外市场—优选各赛道龙头——2025 年 9 月海外金股推荐—— 20250901 【固定收益】地产销售微幅回升——基本面高频数据跟踪——20250901 【电子】存储产业升级：重视 HBM、3D DRAM、定制化存储机遇—— 20250901 【食品饮料】大众品 25H1 总结：收入修复，业绩分化——20250901 【食品饮料】零食板块 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Add" [5] Core Viewpoints - The snack sector is experiencing differentiated growth, with individual companies showing significant highlights. In H1 2025, the overall revenue of the snack sector was 25.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.2%. The sector's net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.09 billion yuan, down 40.3% year-on-year, primarily due to cost pressures and the weakening of channel dividends [1][10][12] - In Q2 2025, the snack sector's revenue reached 11.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders dropped to 250 million yuan, a decrease of 55.1% year-on-year, indicating increased profit pressure due to cost and expense pressures [2][12] - The report highlights three types of companies that are expected to perform well: those that create core blockbuster products, those that rapidly expand channels, and those that continuously innovate [2][20][22] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In H1 2025, the snack sector's overall revenue was 25.51 billion yuan, down 2.2% year-on-year. The decline is attributed to the timing of the Spring Festival affecting inventory preparation and a return to normal operating rhythms in Q2 [10][12] - The average gross margin for the snack sector in H1 2025 was 28.3%, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising costs and changes in channel structure [11][18] Q2 Performance - The snack sector's revenue in Q2 2025 was 11.09 billion yuan, up 2.2% year-on-year, indicating a return to positive growth despite seasonal challenges. However, net profit fell to 250 million yuan, down 55.1% year-on-year, reflecting significant profit pressure [2][12] - The average gross margin in Q2 2025 was 28.4%, down 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by rising costs and changes in channel structure [13][18] Growth Catalysts - The report emphasizes the importance of product innovation and channel expansion as key growth drivers. Companies that can create blockbuster products and effectively expand their channels are expected to outperform [20][21] - The report identifies specific companies with strong growth potential, including Wei Long, Yan Jin Pu Zi, and You You Food, which are leveraging product demand and channel expansion to drive growth [22] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that can successfully execute growth strategies along two main lines: product innovation and channel expansion. Key companies highlighted include Wei Long, Yan Jin Pu Zi, You You Food, and Wan Chen Group, which are expected to benefit from favorable market conditions [22]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Increase" [6] Core Views - The food and beverage industry is experiencing revenue recovery, but performance is differentiated across segments [1][2][3][4] - The restaurant supply chain shows a slight revenue improvement but faces profit pressure due to raw material costs and competitive promotions [1] - The seasoning industry benefits from cost advantages, leading to steady gross margin improvement despite increased expenses due to competition [2] - The dairy industry shows revenue recovery and profit improvement, with a notable increase in net profit in Q2 [3] - The health supplement sector is characterized by brand differentiation and profit improvement, with a significant increase in online sales [4] Summary by Sections Restaurant Supply Chain - Total revenue for H1 2025 was 23.67 billion yuan, down 0.6% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.66 billion yuan, down 16.5% [1] - Q2 2025 revenue was 12.17 billion yuan, up 1.8% year-on-year, with a net profit of 0.82 billion yuan, down 22.6% [1] - Gross margin was 23.2%, down 1.8 percentage points year-on-year, and net margin was 7.0%, down 1.4 percentage points [1] Seasoning Industry - H1 2025 revenue reached 34.57 billion yuan, up 4.9% year-on-year, with a net profit of 6.32 billion yuan, up 7.4% [2] - Q2 2025 revenue was 16.50 billion yuan, up 6.0% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.77 billion yuan, up 7.7% [2] - Gross margin was 36.1%, up 2.2 percentage points year-on-year, and net margin was 18.5%, up 0.4 percentage points [2] Dairy Industry - H1 2025 revenue was 93.72 billion yuan, up 1.3% year-on-year, with a net profit of 8.29 billion yuan, down 0.3% [3] - Q2 2025 revenue reached 45.05 billion yuan, up 2.9% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.97 billion yuan, up 48.5% [3] - Gross margin improved to 32.1%, up 1.0 percentage point year-on-year, while net margin was 8.9%, down 0.1 percentage point [3] Health Supplement Industry - H1 2025 revenue was 11.67 billion yuan, down 7.6% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.62 billion yuan, down 0.6% [4] - Q2 2025 revenue was 5.97 billion yuan, down 1.7% year-on-year, with a net profit of 0.75 billion yuan, up 36.0% [4] - Gross margin was 44.6%, down 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, and net margin was 13.7%, up 1.1 percentage points [4]

证券研究报告 | 半年报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 09 01 年 月 日 2025Q2 扣非同比高增长，新能源电驱业务贡献主要增量。剔除 2024H1 的一次性补偿款影响，公司 2025Q2 实现扣非归母净利润 1.1 亿元，同/环 比+33.1%/-13.8%。分业务看，2025H1 内外饰及机电部件/轮毂轴承/新 能 源 电 驱 分 别 实 现 收 入 13.4/6.2/4.4 亿元，同比 +11.0%/+2.3%/+93.8%。盈利能力方面，公司 2025Q2 实现毛利率 19.8%，环比-1.8PCT，我们预计主要受电驱业务占比提升影响；期间费用 率合计 10.2%，环比-0.2PCT，其中销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别为 0.6%/6.0%/3.4%/0.1%PCT，分别环比-0.3/+0.1/+0.3/-0.3PCT，整体维 持稳定。 泰国工厂产能爬坡，全球化布局持续推进。截止 2025H1，公司泰国工厂： 1）已布局 3 条高端轮毂轴承生产线，实现本地化生产，全系产品已获得 美国海关的原产地认证并收到 e-Ruling 认证函，并将于今年下半年取得 IATF16949 证书。2 ...

证券研究报告 | 半年报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 09 01 年 月 日 整体经营向上，机器人产品进展顺利 事件：公司发布 2025 年半年报。2025 年 H1，公司营收 12.5 亿元，同比 +10.3%，归母净利润 1.84 亿元，同比+13.5%。其中 2025Q2 实现营收 6.3 亿元，同比+7.4%，环比+2.3%，归母净利润 0.8 亿元，同比-3%， 环比-23%。 客户需求阶段性调整，公司整体经营向上。1）汽车零部件：2025 年 H1， 我国汽车销量 1,565 万辆，同比+11%。其中，乘用车销量 1,353 万辆， 同比+13%；商用车销量 212 万辆，同比+3%；新能源汽车销量 694 万 辆，同比+40%。公司业务收入 10.6 亿元，同比+7%，低于终端销量增 速，主要系公司产品受部分客户需求阶段性调整及新项目处于产能爬坡， 释放节奏滞后。目前公司已获得麦格纳、大众、斯堪尼亚等企业定点，支 撑未来业绩增长。2）航空零部件：2025 年 H1，全球商业航天发射 110 次，占比 72%；中国 2025 年上半年商业航天发射 14 次，同比增长 40%。 公司业务 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业专题研究 gszqdatemark 2025 09 01 年 月 日 轻工制造 大行科工：折叠自行车龙头企业，品牌+技术+渠道驱动行业领先 ➢ 公司概况：中国领先自行车公司，产品矩阵不断拓展 大行科工为中国领先自行车公司。1982 年，创始人韩德玮博士创立大行 品牌，开启了现代折叠自行车的商业化历程。2001 年，DH 科技成立，成 为大行品牌在中国的主要运营实体，并推动品牌全面进入国内市场。 根据 2024 年零售统计，大行科工在中国内地折叠自行车行业占据领先地 位，市场份额分别为 26.3%（按销量）和 36.5%（按销零售额和。公司产产 的折叠自行车产品包括经典折叠车、电助力折叠车及高端限）款等，尤其 以可折叠便携的城市代步车型为核心产品。产品设计兼顾实用性、轻便性 及耐用性，为消费者提供便利、环保的出行体验，并推动绿色出行理念的 普及。大行科工建立了多元化的产品矩阵，主要包括五大品类，即城市通 勤类、时尚个性类、户外探索类、超卓竞速类及实用内涵类，每个品类都 针对特定客群 使用场景而设计。 ➢ 行业：折叠自行车细分赛道崛起，中国龙头企业引领 市场对便利性、市区移动 节省空间的需求 ...

正邦科技（002157.SZ） 生猪销量目标完成过半，饲料与兽药收入大幅增加 公司公告 2025 年半年度报告。2025 年上半年公司实现收入 68.38 亿元， 同比增长 112.17%；归母净利润 2.02 亿元，同比增长 258.18%；扣非归 母净利润 0.6 亿元，同比增长 122.14%。2025 年第二季度公司实现收入 38.36 亿元，同比增长 115.36%；归母净利润 0.31 亿元，同比增长 139.46%；扣非归母净利润 0.33 亿元，同比减少 29.26%。 生猪销量大幅提升，年度目标完成过半。上半年公司生猪养殖业务贡献显 著，实现收入 40.77 亿元，同比增长 134.59%。上半年公司销售生猪 357.66 万头，同比增长 125.05%，其中仔猪 200.6 万头，同比增长 128.2%；商 品猪 157.06 万头，同比增长 121.16%。公司 2025 年生猪销量预计超过 700 万头，上半年已完成过半。随着公司与双胞胎集团协同效应进一步发 挥，看好公司中长期生猪业务盈利势能恢复。 双胞胎持续赋能，饲料与兽药收入同比大幅增长。上半年公司饲料实现收 入 26.63 亿元 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company's performance in H1 2025 met expectations, with revenue of 12.9 billion and a year-on-year increase of 6%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 11% to 1.3 billion [1] - The company is expanding its global market presence and product categories, with ongoing projects in Mexico and plans for a factory in Poland, enhancing its ability to meet local demand [2] - The company is focusing on core technologies, particularly in robotics and liquid cooling, with significant growth potential in these areas [3] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 project net profits of 3.3 billion, 4.1 billion, and 5.0 billion respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 33, 27, and 22 [3] Financial Summary - For 2025, the company expects revenue to reach 33.25 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 25% [4] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 3.3 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 10.1% [4] - The latest diluted EPS is expected to be 1.90 for 2025, with a net asset return rate of 13.4% [4] - The company’s total assets are projected to be 43.45 billion by 2025, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 43.2% [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 77.13 billion yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.99%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 16.91 billion yuan, up 16.78% year-on-year [1]. - The trade service revenue saw a significant increase of 43.16%, contributing to a substantial rise in operating cash flow [1]. - The company is positioned as a core beneficiary of the digital RMB in cross-border transactions, with a cross-border payment amount exceeding 2.5 billion USD, reflecting a growth of over 47% [4]. Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company achieved a net cash flow from operating activities of 12.68 billion yuan, primarily due to increased cash receipts from the Yiwu Global Digital Trade Center [1]. - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are expected to reach 207.17 billion yuan, 264.87 billion yuan, and 318.70 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 41.27 billion yuan, 53.81 billion yuan, and 67.40 billion yuan [9]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.75 yuan, with a projected net profit margin of 19.9% [11]. Market Dynamics - Yiwu's total import and export value reached 4,058.3 billion yuan in H1 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 25%, with exports contributing significantly to this growth [2]. - The company has leveraged AI technology to enhance its platform, achieving over 1 billion visits, which indicates strong user engagement and market acceptance [3]. - The company is actively expanding into emerging markets, with notable growth in trade with Africa, Latin America, ASEAN, and the EU [2].

证券研究报告 | 半年报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 09 01 年 月 日 建发股份（600153.SH） 房地产销售投资增长，供应链业务稳健经营 事件：公司 2025 年 8 月 29 日发布 2025 年半年度报告。 受家居商场以及房地产业务影响，上半年业绩同比下滑。公司 2025 年上 半年实现营业收入 3153 亿元，同比减少 1.2%，归母净利润 8.4 亿元，同 比减少 29.9%；扣非归母净利润 6.7 亿元，同比减少 20.4%。分业务来 看：（1）房地产业务实现营业收入 441 亿元，同比减少 13.8%；毛利率 13.3%，同比提升 0.2pct；归母净利润 0.1 亿元，同比减少 1.4 亿元。其 中建发房产和联发集团分别贡献归母净利润 5.2 亿元和-5.1 亿元，分别计 提存货跌价准备 3.8 和 2.3 亿元；（2）供应链运营业务实现营收 2678 亿 元，同比增长 1.6%；归母净利润 14.2 亿元，同比基本持平；（3）家居商 场运营业务实现营收 33.4 亿元，同比降低 21%；贡献归母净利润-5.9 亿 元，亏损主要因为商场租金增长未达预期，导致投资性房地产公 ...