Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Accumulate" [5] Core Viewpoints - The duty-free industry is experiencing a positive turnaround in fundamentals, with high-frequency data for Hainan's offshore duty-free sales showing improvement in Q3 2025, and a stable outlook for Q4 2025 [1][3] - Recent policy implementations have clarified the direction for the Hainan Free Trade Port, with significant announcements made regarding the closure date and adjustments to duty-free policies [2][3] - The operational performance of duty-free businesses is expected to improve, with notable increases in shopping amounts and visitor numbers following the implementation of new policies [3] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - In Q3 2025, Hainan's offshore duty-free sales totaled 5.402 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.7%, with shopping visits at 946,800, down 23.4% year-on-year. The average transaction value increased by 27.1% to 5,705.53 yuan [1] - September 2025 saw duty-free sales of 1.733 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, with shopping visits at 280,000, down 7.3%, and an average transaction value of 6,189.29 yuan, up 22.0% [1] Policy Developments - On July 23, 2025, the State Council announced the closure date for the Hainan Free Trade Port as December 18, 2025, providing detailed policies that reflect a clear direction for the port [2] - On October 17, 2025, three departments released adjustments to the offshore duty-free policy, expanding the categories of duty-free goods and allowing more purchasing opportunities for travelers [2] Business Expectations - China Duty Free Group reported Q3 2025 revenue of 11.711 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.38%, with net profit down 28.94% to 452 million yuan. However, there were improvements in revenue growth and gross margin on a quarter-on-quarter basis [3] - Following the implementation of the new duty-free policy on November 1, 2025, shopping amounts reached 78.549 million yuan, with significant increases in both the number of purchases and visitors compared to the previous day [3]

证券研究报告 | 策略报告 gszqdatemark 2025 11 09 年 月 日 投资策略 如何使用财务数据定位库存周期？ 库存周期最初是一个宏观框架，我们以 PPI 同比与产成品库存同比的上下 行将宏观库存周期划分为"主/被动-补/去库"四个象限，并判断宏观经济 所处的"衰退-复苏-繁荣-过热"阶段。但该框架所采用的数据不够下沉， 难以指导行业层面的景气投资，基于上述问题，我们考虑以财务数据对库 存周期框架重新进行构建。 构建思路上，我们考虑先将指标框架进行拓展，然后寻找对应的财务指标。 PPI 同比反映价格变化，产成品库存同比反映库存变化，而价格与库存都 由供需特征所决定，因此我们将指标框架拓展为"价格、库存、需求、供 给"思维。财务指标的对应上，库存指标可以选取存货同比或库销比，需 求指标可以选取营业收入同比，供给指标包括反映当前供需匹配情况的固 定资产周转率、反映未来新增供给的产能扩张指标（结合资资本支、、建建 工程与固定资产同比进行构建），价格建财务体系中缺乏对应指标，只能 合资供需特征进行推测。 1.2 库存周期如何指导 A 股盈利预期？ 当前全 A 非金融库存周期延续底部企稳态势，需求方面 ...

Policy Highlights - The recent US-China summit on October 30 resulted in mutual concessions, including the suspension of a 24% reciprocal tariff and a commitment to improve bilateral relations, with a visit from Trump to China planned for April 2026[3] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" was compared to the new "15th Five-Year Plan" proposal released on October 28, highlighting new initiatives in capital markets, fiscal policy, and supply-side structural reforms[4] - The central government aims to maintain GDP growth around 5% for 2026, emphasizing the importance of domestic consumption and economic stability[4] Economic Measures - The People's Bank of China will resume open market operations for government bonds and implement supportive monetary policies, including a potential personal credit relief initiative[4] - The State Council announced an additional 200 billion yuan in special bonds to support provincial investments, part of a total of 500 billion yuan in policy financial tools[5][21] - The Ministry of Finance introduced measures to enhance duty-free shop policies to stimulate consumption, including expanding product categories and improving management[6][28] Regional Development - Guangdong's leadership is tasked with setting a high standard in the "15th Five-Year Plan," focusing on economic stability and job security[2] - The development of the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle is being prioritized, with specific targets for land use and ecological protection set for 2035[25] Industry Focus - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission established a 51 billion yuan fund to support strategic emerging industries, including AI and aerospace[9] - Local initiatives in Anhui and Guizhou are promoting consumption and industry transformation, with Guizhou shifting from selling liquor to offering lifestyle experiences[8]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Industry Mainline Model (Relative Strength Index, RSI) - **Model Construction Idea**: This model identifies leading industries by calculating their relative strength (RS) based on historical price performance. Industries with RS > 90% are considered potential leaders for the year [10] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Use 29 first-level industry indices as the investment universe [10] 2. Calculate the price change over the past 20, 40, and 60 trading days for each industry index [10] 3. Rank the price changes for each period and normalize the rankings to obtain RS_20, RS_40, and RS_60 [10] 4. Compute the average of the three rankings to derive the final relative strength index: $ RS = (RS_{20} + RS_{40} + RS_{60}) / 3 $ where RS_20, RS_40, and RS_60 represent the normalized rankings of price changes over 20, 40, and 60 trading days, respectively [10] - **Model Evaluation**: The model successfully identified leading industries in 2024, such as coal, banking, and AI-related sectors, which showed strong performance during the year [10][12] 2. Model Name: Industry Rotation Model (Prosperity-Trend-Crowding Framework) - **Model Construction Idea**: This model combines three dimensions—prosperity, trend, and crowding—to recommend industry allocations. It includes two sub-strategies: "Strong Trend-Low Crowding" and "High Prosperity-Strong Trend" [7][15] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Define prosperity as the core metric, supplemented by trend and crowding dimensions [15] 2. For the "High Prosperity-Strong Trend" strategy, focus on industries with high prosperity and strong trends while avoiding highly crowded industries [15] 3. For the "Strong Trend-Low Crowding" strategy, prioritize industries with strong trends and low crowding while avoiding low-prosperity industries [15] 4. Allocate weights to industries based on the framework, e.g., November 2025 allocation: Basic Chemicals (18%), Media (16%), Agriculture (12%), Light Manufacturing (12%), Computers (12%), Home Appliances (9%), Real Estate (9%), Retail (6%), New Energy (4%), Coal (3%) [7][15] - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrated strong performance, with an annualized excess return of 13.7% and an IR of 1.5. It also showed a high monthly win rate of 67% [15][22] 3. Model Name: Left-Side Inventory Reversal Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model identifies industries in a recovery phase from distress by analyzing inventory levels and analyst expectations. It aims to capture reversal opportunities in industries with low inventory pressure and potential for restocking [29] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Focus on industries experiencing current or past distress with signs of recovery [29] 2. Identify industries with low inventory pressure and restocking potential [29] 3. Incorporate analyst long-term positive outlooks for these industries [29] - **Model Evaluation**: The model achieved an absolute return of 27.9% and an excess return of 7.5% relative to equal-weighted industry benchmarks in 2025 (up to October) [29] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Industry Mainline Model (RSI) - Annualized excess return: Not explicitly stated - IR: Not explicitly stated - Maximum drawdown: Not explicitly stated - Monthly win rate: Not explicitly stated - 2024 performance: Identified leading industries such as coal, banking, and AI, which showed strong performance during the year [10][12] 2. Industry Rotation Model (Prosperity-Trend-Crowding Framework) - Annualized excess return: 13.7% [15] - IR: 1.5 [15] - Maximum drawdown: -8.0% [15] - Monthly win rate: 67% [15] - 2023 excess return: 7.3% [15] - 2024 excess return: 5.7% [15] - 2025 excess return (up to October): 2.0% [15] 3. Left-Side Inventory Reversal Model - Annualized excess return: Not explicitly stated - IR: Not explicitly stated - Maximum drawdown: Not explicitly stated - Monthly win rate: Not explicitly stated - 2023 performance: Absolute return of 13.4%, excess return of 17.0% [29] - 2024 performance: Absolute return of 26.5%, excess return of 15.4% [29] - 2025 performance (up to October): Absolute return of 27.9%, excess return of 7.5% [29]

Group 1: Macro Policy Expectations - The report highlights three major expectations for policies in the remaining months of the year, including the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5] - It emphasizes that while the economy shows signs of slowing down, the goal of maintaining a 5% growth rate for the year remains intact, indicating that short-term policies may be more about support rather than significant changes [5] Group 2: CPI and PPI Trends - In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned positive, reaching a nine-month high, driven by increased service prices and strong core consumer goods prices [6] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a narrowing decline for three consecutive months, with a first-time positive month-on-month change this year, indicating a potential stabilization in industrial prices [6] Group 3: Export and Trade Insights - October saw a significant drop in export growth, attributed to base effects, with a two-year compound growth rate of 5.5% indicating stable growth despite the monthly decline [7] - The trade surplus remained high at $90 billion, suggesting that the overall trade balance continues to support economic growth despite weaker export performance [7] Group 4: Financial Market Analysis - The report discusses the performance of various sectors, noting that coal, oil and petrochemicals, and banking sectors showed strong performance in the past year, while sectors like beauty care and automotive faced declines [2] - It suggests a shift in investment strategies towards sectors with strong trends and low crowding, particularly in agriculture, media, and light industry [9] Group 5: Energy and Materials Sector Developments - The report indicates that green methanol is expected to become a preferred zero-carbon fuel for global shipping, with significant demand anticipated [21] - In the energy storage sector, there is a projected explosive growth in demand for lithium battery materials, driven by market reforms and international policies [22][24] Group 6: Real Estate and REITs Performance - The C-REITs market is under pressure, with a decline in new issuance sentiment and mixed performance across different REIT sectors [30] - The report suggests that despite the current challenges, there are opportunities in high-quality, low-valuation projects within the REITs market [30] Group 7: Coal Market Dynamics - Coal prices have surged over 100 yuan per ton since October, driven by strong demand and supply constraints, with expectations for continued price increases as winter heating demand rises [32] - The report anticipates that coal prices will end the year at a high point, exceeding market expectations due to ongoing supply limitations and seasonal demand increases [32]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on the Hainan sector and sub-sectors with performance elasticity during the Spring Festival, indicating a positive medium-term outlook for new consumption growth, transformation recovery, overseas expansion, and policy benefits [3] Core Insights - Following the new gold tax policy, there has been a price increase in gold jewelry at retail terminals, highlighting the importance of brand strength and product quality [1][2] - The new tax policy differentiates between investment and non-investment uses of standard gold, affecting tax deductions and pricing strategies for retailers [2] - Major brands have raised their gold prices post-policy implementation, with increases ranging from 58 to 70 CNY per gram for leading brands [2] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The retail index increased by 0.31% this week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.77 percentage points [9] - The retail sector's performance ranked 17th among all sectors during this period [9] 2. Company Dynamics - Small Commodity City has acquired land for a cultural and commercial complex for 3.2 billion CNY [16] - West China Tourism plans to issue up to 30.61 million shares to raise no more than 300 million CNY for working capital and debt repayment [16] 3. Industry Dynamics - Xiaohongshu has obtained a payment license, indicating a significant development in the digital payment landscape [22] - Starbucks has partnered with Boyu Capital to expand its retail operations in China, aiming to increase the number of stores to 20,000 [22] - JD's global sales during the Double 11 event saw a transaction volume increase of over 300% in cross-border shipping areas [23]

CPI Analysis - In October, the CPI turned positive at 0.2% year-on-year, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, marking a 9-month high[2] - The core CPI rose 1.2% year-on-year, continuing its upward trend for the sixth consecutive month, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%[2] - Food prices fell by 2.9% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, while energy prices saw a year-on-year decline of 2.4%[5] PPI Analysis - The PPI decreased by 2.1% year-on-year in October, but the decline narrowed by 0.2 percentage points for the third consecutive month, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1%[3] - Key drivers for the PPI's month-on-month increase include the "anti-involution" trend, rising prices in the non-ferrous sector, and increased demand for general consumer goods[3] - The PPI for production materials rose by 0.1% month-on-month, while the PPI for living materials remained flat[6] Future Outlook - CPI is expected to see a mild recovery in November and December, with an annual average around 0%[4] - The PPI is projected to fluctuate at low levels, with an annual average around -2.7%[4] - The performance of six major commodities (crude oil, coal, rebar, copper, lithium carbonate, and pork) will significantly influence future PPI readings[4]

- The report mentions the construction of the A-share sentiment index, which is based on market volatility and trading volume changes. The sentiment index divides the market into four quadrants, with only the "volatility up-trading volume down" quadrant showing significant negative returns, while the other quadrants show significant positive returns. This index includes bottom warning and top warning signals[37][43][46] - The A-share sentiment index currently indicates bearish signals for both bottom and top warnings. The overall sentiment signal is bearish[40][43][46] - The A-share prosperity index is constructed using the YoY growth of the net profit attributable to the parent company of the Shanghai Composite Index as the Nowcasting target. The index shows a slow upward trend, indicating the current market is in an upward cycle[32][35][36] - The report highlights the performance of style factors, including residual volatility (RESVOL), momentum (MOM), and others. Residual volatility factor showed high excess returns, while momentum factor exhibited significant negative excess returns. High-value stocks performed well, whereas size and non-linear size factors underperformed[61][62][69] - The report uses the BARRA factor model to construct ten style factors for the A-share market, including size (SIZE), beta (BETA), momentum (MOM), residual volatility (RESVOL), non-linear size (NLSIZE), valuation (BTOP), liquidity (LIQUIDITY), earnings yield (EARNINGS_YIELD), growth (GROWTH), and leverage (LVRG)[61][62][64] - The report evaluates the performance of enhanced index portfolios. The CSI 500 enhanced portfolio achieved a weekly return of 0.40%, outperforming the benchmark by 0.45%. Since 2020, the portfolio has generated an excess return of 52.65% relative to the CSI 500 index, with a maximum drawdown of -5.73%[48][51][53] - The CSI 500 enhanced portfolio's holdings include stocks such as Hongfa Shares (600885.SH) with a weight of 3.47%, Gujin Securities (600109.SH) with a weight of 2.74%, and others[53][55][56] - The CSI 300 enhanced portfolio achieved a weekly return of 0.84%, outperforming the benchmark by 0.02%. Since 2020, the portfolio has generated an excess return of 39.36% relative to the CSI 300 index, with a maximum drawdown of -5.86%[56][57][60] - The CSI 300 enhanced portfolio's holdings include stocks such as Yunnan Baiyao (000538.SZ) with a weight of 6.04%, Fangzheng Securities (601901.SH) with a weight of 5.73%, and others[60][56][57]

Group 1: Inflation Trends - In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) shifted from a decrease of 0.3% to an increase of 0.2%, marking the highest value since February of this year, with a seasonal level higher than the previous two years [1][8] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a narrowing decline of 0.2 percentage points to -2.1%, marking the third consecutive month of narrowing [1][8] - Gold prices significantly impacted both CPI and PPI, with domestic gold futures prices increasing by 52.8% year-on-year, a substantial rise of 9.5 percentage points compared to September [2][12] Group 2: Food Prices and Core CPI - Food prices decreased by 2.9%, with the decline narrowing by 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, affecting CPI by approximately 0.54 percentage points [2][16] - Core CPI rose by 1.2%, the highest since March 2024, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [2][9] - The increase in core CPI was primarily driven by gold prices, with other goods and services related to gold also showing a significant year-on-year increase of 12.8% [2][12] Group 3: PPI and Industry Performance - The PPI for October showed a year-on-year decline of 2.1%, with notable performance in the non-ferrous industry, where prices increased by 5.3% and 2.4% for mining and metal processing, respectively [3][21] - The narrowing decline in PPI was attributed to ongoing capacity management and increased demand for coal mining and washing, with a reduction in the decline of 1.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [3][21] - Life goods PPI decreased by 1.4%, with the decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [3][21] Group 4: Market Outlook and Strategy - The rise in prices is influenced by multiple factors, including the increase in gold prices and weather-related impacts on vegetable prices, leading to an unexpected overall price increase [4][23] - The bond market is entering a recovery phase, with a recommendation for a barbell strategy to manage risks while benefiting from potential interest rate declines [4][25] - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to recover to a range of 1.6%-1.65% by the end of the year [4][25]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Increase" [4] Core Viewpoints - Indonesia's coal export volume is expected to decrease by 20-30 million tons in 2025 compared to 2024 [2] - The report highlights the performance resilience of companies such as Yancoal Energy, Jinko Coal, and focuses on Keda Automation, which specializes in smart mining [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of performance in stock valuation, recommending companies like Shaanxi Coal, Electric Power Energy, and Huai Bei Mining [3] Summary by Sections Coal Mining - Indonesia's coal export volume for 2024 reached 566 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.57%, marking a historical high [3] - As of September 2025, Indonesia's coal production decreased by 7.47% year-on-year to 584 million tons, with coal exports down by 7.3% to 380 million tons [3] Price Trends - As of November 7, 2025, coal prices at various ports showed the following changes: - European ARA port coal price (6000K) at $99.15 per ton, up by $3.4 per ton (+3.55%) - Newcastle port coal price (6000K) at $113.7 per ton, up by $1 per ton (+0.89%) - IPE South African Richards Bay coal futures price at $86.9 per ton, up by $5.15 per ton (+4.57%) [30][32] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include: - China Coal Energy (Buy) with EPS estimates of 1.46 for 2024A and a PE ratio of 9.40 - China Shenhua (Buy) with EPS estimates of 2.95 for 2024A and a PE ratio of 14.40 - Jinko Coal (Buy) with EPS estimates of 1.68 for 2024A and a PE ratio of 9.00 - Electric Power Energy (Buy) with EPS estimates of 2.38 for 2024A and a PE ratio of 8.70 - Yancoal Energy (Buy) with EPS estimates of 1.44 for 2024A and a PE ratio of 10.20 [6]