证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 07 20 年 月 日 食品饮料 周观点：业绩分化持续，饮料正当旺季 投资建议：1、白酒：6 月社零平淡，茅台重启渠道变革，行业逐步筑底企稳，建 议关注"优势龙头、红利延续、强势复苏"三条主线：1）优势龙头，头部酒企份 额持续提升：贵州茅台、五粮液、山西汾酒、古井贡酒；2）红利延续，高确定性 区域酒：今世缘（江苏格局红利）、迎驾贡酒（洞藏大单品红利）等；3）受益复 苏与风险偏好提升，弹性标的：泸州老窖、水井坊、舍得酒业、老白干酒、港股珍 酒李渡、酒鬼酒等。2、大众品：啤酒 6 月环比略承压，KKR 拟收购大窑，良品控 制权变更，中报业绩预告披露、预期调整逐步到位，重点关注优秀成长个股：1） 高景气或高成长逻辑：盐津铺子、东鹏饮料、燕京啤酒、珠江啤酒、万辰集团、三 只松鼠、百润股份、有友食品、好想你等，港股卫龙美味等。2）政策受益或复苏 改善：青岛啤酒、海天味业、新乳业、伊利股份、重庆啤酒、安琪酵母、仙乐健 康、百龙创园、安井食品、立高食品等，港股农夫山泉、华润饮料、H&H 国际控 股等。 白酒：茅台重启渠道变革，行业逐步筑底企稳。6 月社零总额同 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 07 20 年 月 日 雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程正式开工，关注西藏自治区基建 2025 年 7 月 14 日至 7 月 18 日建筑材料板块（SW）下跌 0.75%，其中 水泥（SW）下跌 1.48%，玻璃制造（SW）下跌 1.76%，玻纤制造（SW） 上涨 3.23%，装修建材（SW）下跌 1.67%，本周建材板块相对沪深 300 超额收益-1.76%。本期建筑材料板块（SW）资金净流入额为-10.92 亿元。 【周数据总结和观点】 雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程开工仪式 7 月 19 日上午在西藏自治区林芝市举 行，中共中央政治局常委、国务院总理李强出席开工仪式，并宣布工程正 式开工，雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程位于西藏自治区林芝市。工程主要采取 截弯取直、隧洞引水的开发方式，建设 5 座梯级电站，总投资约 1.2 万亿 元，有望拉动西藏自治区基建，关注苏博特。根据 wind 统计，2025 年 6 月地方政府债总发行量 11753.22 亿元，发行金额环比 2025 年 5 月增长 50.8%，同比 2024 年 6 月增长 75.0%。截至目前，2025 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 07 20 年 月 日 有色金属 "反内卷"政策驱动延续，看好金属价格上行 黄金：降息预期与长期逻辑支撑下，持续看好贵金属价格表现。美国 6 月零售销售月率录得 0.6%，为今年 3 月以来新高，高于市场预期的 0.1%；银价受到宽松预期和经济韧性的推动 底部显现支撑反弹。本周美国初请失业金人数小幅走弱，显示就业活动可能仍在放缓。周内 特朗普解雇鲍威尔传闻导致金银价格波动，市场担忧美联储独立性在鲍威尔任期后可能面临 挑战，对贵金属价格长期利好。中长期全球货币信用，公共债务，以及大国对抗的担忧并未 缓解的当下，黄金的长期走牛格局仍未逆转。建议关注：兴业银锡、盛达资源、紫金矿业、 山东黄金、赤峰黄金、银泰黄金、招金矿业等。 工业金属：（1）铜：宏观韧性与国内去库，支撑铜价高位震荡。①宏观方面：美国零售数 据超预期和国内整体宏观向好使得铜价仍维持底部有支撑的走势。②库存端：SMM 全国主 流地区铜库存较周一下降 0.43 万吨至 14.33 万吨，较上周四微降 0.04 万吨，周度库存结束 两连增重新下降，目前较去年同期的 37.51 万吨低 23.1 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 07 20 年 月 日 电子 周观点：台积电业绩超预期，AI 产业链高景气 Tokens 交易量爆发式增长+主权 AI 需求提升，推动核心芯片需求持续 增长。根据台积电 25Q2 法说会，tokens 交易量的爆发式增长表明 AI 模 型应用范围不断扩大，意味着对计算能力的需求持续攀升，从而推动核心 芯片需求增长，同时公司还观察到 AI 需求保持强劲态势，包括主权机构 对人工智能的日益增长需求。主权 AI 即每个国家应打造本国的人工智能 系统，利用本地数据、对齐国家价值观，并部署于本土基础设施之上，各 国政府纷纷入场建立本土 AI 系统，进一步强化算力芯片需求。 海外大厂持续加大 AI 投入，Capex 有望进一步上调。Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg 宣布，公司将投入数千亿美元建设新一代 AI 数据中心，这笔 巨额投资主要用于扩充 AI 算力。Google 在宾夕法尼亚州能源与创新峰会 上宣布将投资 250 亿美元建设 AI 数据中心。Coreweave 预计投资 60 亿 美元建设 AI 数据中心，扩展 AI 专属云平台。当前 ...

【本周观点】 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 07 20 年 月 日 纺织服饰 Q2 服装零售额稳健增长，户外/跑步细分鞋服品类延续快速增长态势 【本周专题】 2025 年 6 月社零公布，社会消费品零售总额当月值同比增长 4.8%。2025 年 6 月社会消费品零售额总额同比增长 4.8%（4 月增长 5.1%，5 月增长 6.4%，1~6 月累计增长 5%），2025 年整体的消费环境呈现复苏态势。 受益于金价的高企，1-6 月金银珠宝类零售额快速增长，但 6 月增速对比 4-5 月 增速放缓。2025 年 6 月金银珠宝类零售额同比增长 6.1%，1-6 月累计增长 11.3%， 整体增速显著优于社零整体增速，我们判断金银珠宝类零售额的优异增长表现或 系金价同比上涨带动（6 月末上交所 Au9999 收盘价较 2024 年同期上涨接近 40%）。环比来看，6 月份金银珠宝类零售额的同比增速已经较 4 月增速 （+25.3%）以及 5 月增速（+21.8%）放缓明显。我们判断或系 5-6 月期间金 价整体保持区间震荡走势，一方面同比涨势有所放缓，另一方面面对金价的震荡 态势 ...

【行情起爆点：三大引擎共振】 海外链当下与复盘：英伟达等巨头股价点燃市场信心，Capex 验证算力需求， token 正反馈支撑长期发展底层逻辑。本周国内海外算力产业链迎来爆发时 刻，截至周五收盘中际旭创市值突破 2000 亿大关，周涨幅达 24%；新易盛市 值突破 1800 亿，并实现 39%的周涨幅。我们认为，此次行情是多因素共振的 结果：（1）英伟达市值站稳四万亿美元，截至周五收盘已达到 4.2 万亿美元， 进一步提振市场信心。（2）海外四大 CSP 巨头 25 年 Capex 超 3000 亿美元， 且结构性向 AI 倾斜从需求侧印证算力硬件仍保持高景气。（3）token 激增并 提供正反馈为 AI 产业技术提供底层支撑逻辑，至此 AI 叙事逐步得到印证，市 场主线已较为明确。 【关键里程碑：四大认知拐点】 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 07 20 年 月 日 通信 海外算力复盘与展望：投资升维 AI 技术迈入爆发节奏，四大拐点重塑市场认知。回顾近期进展可以看出，AI 正逐步向多模态迈进，渗透率逐步提升，同时配套硬件设备升级同步加速中。 （1）部分 CSP 厂商在 2 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report focuses on the strategies of various US funds in response to interest rate declines and low - interest periods. US asset management institutions adapt to cycles and innovate to deal with changes. In the post - financial crisis interest rate decline period, they developed bond ETFs, increased overseas investment, and reduced management fees. In the interest rate increase period after 2021, they increased inflation - linked bond investments [3][87]. - The US has experienced two low - interest periods in the 21st century. The first was from the end of 2008 to the end of 2015, and the second was from March 2020 to March 2022. Different types of funds showed different performance and asset allocation changes during these periods [11]. Summary by Directory 1. US Low - Interest Period Review - 21st - century US low - interest periods: There were two periods when the policy rate was maintained in the 0 - 0.25% range. The first was from the end of 2008 to the end of 2015 due to the 2008 global financial crisis, and the second was from March 2020 to March 2022 because of the global public health event [11]. - 2008 - 2016 interest rate situation: After the sub - prime mortgage crisis, the Fed took measures such as conventional interest rate cuts and quantitative easing. The interest rate showed a "step - by - step decline + periodic shock" feature. The 10Y US Treasury yield dropped sharply in 2008 and then fluctuated [12][21]. - 2020 - 2022 interest rate situation: The global public health event led to a sharp economic downturn. The Fed took aggressive measures. The interest rate cycle turned earlier, and the low - interest period was shorter. The 10 - year US Treasury yield started to rise in September 2020 [25][26]. 2. Evolution of US Mutual Fund Asset Allocation 2.1 Structure Evolution of Mutual Funds - Fund types and scale relationship: US mutual funds include stock, hybrid, bond, and money market funds. Stock funds dominate, so the total scale is highly correlated with the stock market. There is a rotation relationship between bond and money market funds [31]. - 2008 - 2016 asset rotation: In 2008, the financial crisis made money market funds grow. From 2009 - 2012, funds flowed from money market funds to bond funds. After 2012, funds returned from low - risk assets to equity assets [32][37]. - 2020 - 2022 situation: Interest rate trends had no significant impact on the portfolio structure. Investors increased inflation - linked bonds to hedge inflation risks [41]. 2.2 Asset Allocation Changes of Bond Funds - Types of bond funds: Include investment - grade corporate bond funds, high - yield bond funds, global bond funds, government bond funds, etc. [42]. - Asset allocation in different periods: In the interest rate decline and early low - interest periods, low - risk bond funds increased. In the later low - interest period (2013 - 2016), bond funds increased returns through credit downgrading. They also increased overseas bond investments and the proportion of multi - allocation and alternative strategy bond funds [45][52][56]. 2.3 Asset Allocation Changes of Money Market Funds - Types of money market funds: Divided into taxable and tax - exempt. Taxable funds include government and non - government money market funds. - Low - interest period performance: In low - interest periods, the proportion of government money market funds increased, and money market funds increased returns by extending duration [60][64]. 2.4 ETF Structure Changes - ETF composition: Composed of stock, hybrid, bond, and commodity ETFs, with stock ETFs dominant. - Low - interest period performance: In the first low - interest period, the proportion of bond and commodity ETFs increased. Active - management ETFs emerged, and increasing overseas assets became a strategy to increase returns [72][74][75]. 3. Fee Optimization and Operational Innovation of US Mutual Funds - Fee structure: Consists of one - time fees (front - end and back - end sales fees) and continuous fees (management fees, 12b - 1 fees, etc.). - Fee reduction trend: Over the past 20 years, management fees have decreased. Index funds' proportion increased due to their fee advantages. Low - interest rates promoted fee reduction through multiple paths [77]. - Fee - related innovation: Low - interest rates promoted the popularity of no - load shares and zero - commission platforms, and the independence of consulting fees, which reduced the overall industry fee level [84]. 4. Implications of US Fund Asset Allocation in Low - Interest Periods - Interest rate decline strategy: Increase low - risk government and investment - grade bonds during rapid interest rate declines and use credit downgrading after a long - term low - interest period [87]. - Overseas investment: Increase overseas bond investments to balance risks and increase returns [88]. - Fee strategy: With the trend of fee reduction, the proportion of index funds continues to expand [88]. - Financial innovation: Use financial innovation such as multi - allocation and alternative strategies to resist cycle fluctuations and buy inflation - protection bonds to hedge inflation risks [89].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [4][6]. Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned as a leading cultural tourism service provider, focusing on destination investment and operation, with a robust expansion of its business footprint [1][4]. - The tourism industry is experiencing a recovery driven by policy support, with significant growth in both domestic and inbound tourism expected [2][29]. - The company has established three major international tourism destination systems, achieving breakthroughs in light asset operations [3][4]. Company Overview - The company, Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism, was listed in 2017 and has since acquired several high-quality scenic assets, forming a comprehensive tourism service model that includes destination resorts, travel services, cultural consumption, and digital technology [1][14]. - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue of 860 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.6%, with a net profit of 147 million yuan, reflecting a slight decline of 3.1% [1][4]. Industry Insights - Domestic tourism is expected to see 5.62 billion visitors in 2024, a 14.9% increase year-on-year, with tourism revenue reaching 5.8 trillion yuan, up 17.0% [2][29]. - Inbound tourism is projected to recover significantly, with 132 million visitors anticipated in 2024, marking a 60.9% increase from the previous year [2][38]. - The report highlights the ongoing policy initiatives aimed at bolstering the tourism sector, which is recognized as a strategic pillar of the national economy [29][41]. Business Development - The company has successfully integrated various scenic assets through acquisitions, enhancing its operational capabilities and expanding its market presence [3][4]. - The establishment of three major tourism areas—Daxiangxi, Dahuangshan, and Dananling—demonstrates the company's strategic focus on high-potential regions [3][4]. - The company has developed a comprehensive operational model that includes light asset management for eight scenic spots, providing full-chain operational services [1][3]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 1.36 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 383 million yuan, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [4][5]. - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 21.3x, 17.6x, and 15.6x respectively, indicating potential for valuation improvement [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leader in concrete additives, with a recovery in performance from its bottom [1][14]. - Infrastructure demand is providing a crucial support, while supply is accelerating its exit from the market [1][50]. - The company has a strong technical foundation and is involved in major engineering projects, which enhances its reputation and customer base [2][14]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of concrete additives, with production bases in multiple provinces [1][14]. - It has participated in significant projects such as the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge and the Three Gorges Project, establishing a solid reputation [14]. Industry Analysis - The real estate sector is experiencing a downturn, leading to a 10.1% year-on-year decline in concrete production in 2024 [1][41]. - Infrastructure investment remains resilient, with a reported 8.9% year-on-year growth in the first half of 2025, partially offsetting the decline in real estate demand [45][48]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenues of 35.6 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.75% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.0 billion yuan, down 40.2% [20]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed a recovery with revenues of 6.8 billion yuan, up 17.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.2 billion yuan, up 15.4% [21]. Profitability and Cash Flow - The company is expected to see improvements in profit margins due to operational optimizations and scale effects, with projected revenues of 38.0 billion yuan in 2025 [3][4]. - The cash flow from operating activities is expected to significantly improve, with a net cash flow of 5.8 billion yuan in 2024, up 57.0% year-on-year [2]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates revenue growth of 24.4% over the next three years, with net profits projected to increase to 2.46 billion yuan by 2027 [3][4]. - The demand for functional materials is expected to grow, with a projected revenue increase of 29.5% in 2024 [2].

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment rating for the health supplement industry, particularly highlighting the growth potential of the HMB segment and the overall market expansion [4][28]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the global dietary supplement industry is experiencing continuous expansion, with the market size expected to approach $200 billion by 2025, driven by increasing health awareness among consumers [28]. - The company, as the largest global supplier of HMB, is well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand for muscle health products, with a projected revenue increase of 22.8% in 2024 [49][60]. - The report also notes the company's strong partnerships with major clients like Abbott, which significantly contribute to its revenue, particularly in the HMB segment [55][111]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 1.0 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.3% [3][7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 174.4 million yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.7% from 2021 to 2024 [7][21]. - The gross margin improved to 43.5% in 2024, while the net margin slightly decreased to 17.5% due to a minor increase in expenses [21][22]. Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the revenue from nutritional raw materials and formulations was 6.5 billion yuan and 3.5 billion yuan, respectively, accounting for 64.6% and 35.1% of total revenue [12][96]. - The HMB segment generated 2.93 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, representing 45.3% of the nutritional raw materials revenue [49][85]. - The company’s international sales are significant, with the U.S. accounting for 30.6% of revenue, indicating a strong presence in overseas markets [15]. Market Trends - The global sports nutrition market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 4.5% from 2020 to 2026, with HMB being a key ingredient driving this growth [33][35]. - The joint health supplement market, including glucosamine and chondroitin sulfate, is expected to maintain a steady growth rate of 5.8% from 2020 to 2027, supported by an aging population [39][41]. - The report highlights the increasing penetration of contract manufacturing in the health supplement industry, with a market size exceeding 100 billion yuan [45]. Production Capacity and Utilization - The company’s production capacity for HMB, glucosamine, and chondroitin sulfate is expected to exceed 90% utilization in 2024, indicating strong demand [117]. - The company plans to invest 210 million yuan to expand its production capacity for HMB and other nutritional raw materials, which will enhance its ability to meet growing market demands [117][120].