Group 1: Macro Insights - The economic situation in October showed a significant downturn, with external demand affected by base disturbances and a drop in export prices, leading to a substantial decline in export growth [4] - Domestic demand weakened due to a slowdown in real estate and infrastructure investment, alongside a decrease in consumer spending, indicating a dual weakness in production and demand [15] - The overall economic environment suggests a need for policy intervention to stabilize growth, with expectations for a GDP target of around 5% for 2026 [4][15] Group 2: Fixed Income Market - The "Southbound Bond Connect" is expanding, allowing more non-bank institutions to participate in the bond market, which is expected to enhance investment opportunities in Hong Kong's bond market [16] - The bond market remains volatile, with limited changes in interest rates across various maturities, reflecting a cautious approach from institutional investors amid a weak economic backdrop [9][13] - The overall credit demand is weak, with new loans decreasing, indicating a continued trend of reduced financing activity [17] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Tencent Holdings reported a revenue of 192.9 billion yuan for Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15.4%, driven by strong growth in its gaming and advertising segments [20] - Electric Power Investment's acquisition of 100% equity in Baiyin Hua Coal Power is expected to enhance its profitability, with projected annual net profit increasing significantly post-acquisition [23][24] - Wangfujing's Q3 2025 revenue was 2.35 billion yuan, a decline of 4.73% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing challenges in the retail sector [27] Group 4: Industry Trends - The coal industry is experiencing a consolidation phase, with Electric Power Investment expanding its integrated coal-electricity-aluminum business model through strategic acquisitions [23] - The advertising revenue for Tencent is expected to benefit from AI-driven enhancements, contributing significantly to its overall revenue growth [21] - The pharmaceutical sector shows promising growth in emerging business areas, with expectations for continued revenue increases in the coming years [28]

========= Content: --------- <doc id='1'>量化周报 科创 50 即将确认日线下跌，风格切换正在进行 科创 50 即将确认日线下跌，风格切换正在进行。本周（11.10-11.14）， 大盘横盘震荡，上证指数全周收跌 0.18%。在此背景下，汽车确认日线级 别下跌，农林牧渔、消费者服务迎来日线级别上涨。市场的本轮上涨自 4 月 7 日以来，日线级别反弹已经持续了 7 个多月，反弹幅度也基本在 30% 左右，各大指数和板块的上涨基本都轮动了一遍，超 2/3 的行业日线级别 上涨处于超涨状态，几乎所有的规模指数及一半以上的行业更是走出了复 杂的 9-17 浪的上涨结构，而食品饮料、医药、商贸零售、汽车也已经形成 了日线级别下跌，军工、传媒也有较大概率将确认日线级别下跌。因此我 们认为本轮日线级别上涨大概率已临近尾声。此外，创业板、科创 50 自 6 月份以来的上涨短期内已基本见到顶部，科创 50 即将迎来日线级别下 跌，未来科技板块大概率会是震荡调整的态势，风格切换正在进行。中期 来看，上证指数、上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、深证成指、创业板指、 科创 50 纷纷确认周线级别上涨，而且在日线上只走出了 3 浪结构，中期 牛市刚刚开始；此外，已有 27 个行业处于周线级别上涨中，且 19 个行业 周线上涨走了 1-3 浪结构，因此我们认为本轮牛市是个普涨格局。中期对 于投资者而言，仍然可以逆势布局。</doc> <doc id='2'>A 股景气指数观察。截至 2025 年 11 月 14 日，A 股景气指数为 20.94， 相比 2023 年底上升 15.51，当前处于上升周期中。 A 股情绪指数观察。当前 A 股情绪见底指数信号：空，A 股情绪见顶指数 信号：空，综合信号为：空。 指数增强组合本周表现尚可。中证 500 增强组合跑赢基准 0.66%，沪深 300 增强组合跑输基准 0.58%。 风格上，当前残差波动率因子占优。从纯因子收益来看，本周保险、医药、 有色金属等行业因子相对市场市值加权组合跑出较高超额收益，计算机、 汽车等行业因子回撤较多；风格因子中，残差波动率因子超额收益较高， 市值呈较为显著的负向超额收益。从近期因子表现来看，高杠杆股表现优 异，市值、成长等因子表现不佳。 风险提示：量化周报观点全部基于历史统计与量化模型，存在历史规律与 量化模型失效的风险。</doc> <doc id='3'>作者 分析师 刘富兵 执业证书编号：S0680518030007 邮箱：liufubing@gszq.com 分析师 沈芷琦 执业证书编号：S0680521120005 邮箱：shenzhiqi@gszq.com 分析师 张国安 执业证书编号：S0680524060003 邮箱：zhangguoan@gszq.com 分析师 赵博文 执业证书编号：S0680524070004 邮箱：zhaobowen@gszq.com 分析师 汪宜生 执业证书编号：S0680525070003 邮箱：wangyisheng@gszq.com 研究助理 阮俊烨 执业证书编号：S0680124070019 邮箱：ruanjunye@gszq.com 相关研究 1、《量化分析报告：择时雷达六面图：本周基本面改善， 拥挤度下降》 2025-11-08 2、《量化分析报告：六周期框架下的多资产 ETF 配置》 2025-11-05 3、《量化点评报告：十一月配置建议：关注小盘+价值 的均衡配置》 2025-11-03</doc> <doc id='4'> | 1. 市场走势分析 4 | | | --- | --- | | 1.1 科创 即将迎来日线下跌，风格切换正在进行 50 4 | | | 1.2 创业板短期或已基本见顶 5 | | | 2. 市场行业分析 6 | | | 2.1 中期看多煤炭、房地产、石油石化、消费者服务 6 | | | 2.2 汽车确认日线下跌，农林牧渔、消费者服务迎来日线上涨 7 | | | 3. 市场景气与情绪观察 8 | | | 3.1 A 8 | 股景气指数观察 | | 3.2 A 股情绪指数观察 9 | | | 4. 情绪指标择时和主题投资机会 11 | | | 4.1 半导体概念股机会 11 | | | 4.2 中证 500 增强组合 11 | | | 4.3 沪深 300 增强组合 14 | | | 5. 市场风格分析 15 | | | 5.1 风格因子表现 15 | | | 5.2 市场主要指数收益风格归因 17 | | | 风险提示 18 | | | 附录： 19 | | | 指数分析及投资建议 19 | | | 行业分析及投资建议 19 | |</doc> <doc id='5'> | 图表 | 1： | 上证综指走势结构图 | | 4 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 图表 | 2： | 上证 50 | 走势结构图 | 4 | | 图表 | 3： | 沪深 300 | 走势结构图 | 5 | | 图表 | 4： | 中证 500 | 走势结构图 | 5 | | 图表 | 5： | 中证 1000 | 走势结构图 | 5 | | 图表 | 6： | 深证成指走势结构图 | | 5 | | 图表 | 7： | 创业板指走势结构图 | | 6 | | 图表 | 8： | | 消费者服务中期走势结构图 | 6 | | 图表 | 9： | 煤炭中期走势结构图 | | 6 | | 图表 | 10： | | 石油石化中期走势结构图 | 7 | | 图表 | 11： | | 房地产中期走势结构图 | 7 | | 图表 | 12： | | 当前下行周期与历史平均趋势（横坐标： 持续天数） | 8 | | 图表 | 13： | A 股景气度指数 | | 9 | | 图表 | 14： | | 波动-成交情绪时钟收益统计（沪深 300） | 9 | | 图表 | 15： | A | 股情绪指数（见底预警指数） 10 | | | 图表 | 16： | A | 股情绪指数（见顶预警指数） 10 | | | 图表 | 17： | A | 股情绪指数系统择时表现 11 | | | 图表 | 18： | 半导体概念股 | 11 | | | 图表 | 19： | 中证 500 | 增强组合表现 12 | | | 图表 | 20： | 中证 500 | 增强组合持仓明细 12 | | | 图表 | 21： | 沪深 300 | 增强组合表现 14 | | | 图表 | 22： | 沪深 300 | 增强组合持仓明细 14 | | | 图表 | 23： | | 近一周十大类风格因子暴露相关性 16 | | | 图表 | 24： | | 近一周十大类风格纯因子收益率 16 | | | 图表 | 25： | | 近一周行业纯因子收益率 16 | | | 图

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The bond market will continue to recover in a volatile manner, and the recovery may be smoother in the latter part of the fourth quarter. The 10-year Treasury bond yield (old active bond) is expected to recover to the pre-adjustment level of 1.6%-1.65% by the end of the year [3][18]. - Financial "anti-involution" will affect asset supply and demand and interest rates in the future. It may lead to a slowdown in loan growth and a continuous decline in deposit rates, which will ease the pressure on banks' net interest margins [1][7]. - The decline in deposit rates will widen the space for interest rate cuts and increase the necessity for them. If banks shrink their balance sheets, the asset shortage may intensify [2][14]. Summary by Relevant Content Bond Market Trends - This week, the bond market remained volatile, with limited changes in interest rates across various tenors. The 10-year and 30-year Treasury bond yields changed slightly by 0bps and -1.0bps to 1.81% and 2.15% respectively, while the 3-year and 5-year secondary capital bond yields decreased by 2.8bps and 2.7bps to 1.91% and 2.15% respectively [1][6]. - The bond market's volatility is due to the weakening fundamentals and loose funds supporting the bond market's strength, while the cautious behavior of banks and other institutional investors restricts the market's decline in the short term. As the end of the year approaches, banks' demand for bond allocation is expected to recover, driving interest rates down [1][6]. Impact of Financial "Anti-involution" - Bank "involution" competition is manifested in the rapid decline in loan interest rates and the slow decline in deposit interest rates, which compresses banks' net interest margins. Financial "anti-involution" aims to slow down the decline in loan interest rates and accelerate the decline in deposit interest rates [7]. - On the loan side, "anti-involution" may lead to a further decline in loan volume if the decline in loan interest rates is slowed or stopped. There is a possibility of a continuous slowdown in loan growth in the coming months [1][9]. - On the deposit side, deposit interest rates are expected to continue to decline in the future, which will ease the pressure on banks' net interest margins. It is estimated that the average deposit cost of listed banks will continue to decline by 13bps from mid-this year to mid-next year [1][11]. Impact on Interest Rate Policy - The decline in deposit rates will widen the space for the central bank to cut interest rates and increase the necessity for it. The probability of OMO and LPR cuts will increase [2][14]. Impact on Asset Shortage - If banks shrink their balance sheets in an "anti-involution" environment, it may lead to a simultaneous contraction of corporate financing and corporate deposits, increasing the pressure on the asset shortage [2][14]. Investment Strategy - A barbell strategy is recommended, which can control risks through duration and potentially benefit from the overall decline in interest rates and the narrowing of spreads [3][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company has announced the acquisition of 100% equity in Baiyinhu Coal Power, furthering its integrated "coal-electricity-aluminum" strategy [1]. - Post-transaction, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from 2.787 billion yuan to 3.549 billion yuan by June 30, 2025, with the debt-to-asset ratio rising from 27.26% to 41.61% [2]. - The target asset's net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2022-2025 is expected to be 150 million yuan, 490 million yuan, 1.45 billion yuan, and 1.4 billion yuan respectively [3]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 5.9 billion yuan, 6.0 billion yuan, and 6.4 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11.0X, 10.6X, and 10.0X [4]. - The financial indicators for 2023A to 2027E show a steady increase in revenue and net profit, with revenue projected to grow from 26.846 billion yuan in 2023 to 32.480 billion yuan in 2027 [11]. - The net profit margin is expected to improve from 17.0% in 2023 to 19.7% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [12]. Transaction Details - The acquisition involves a total transaction price of 11.149 billion yuan, with cash consideration of 1.56 billion yuan and share consideration of 9.588 billion yuan [10]. - The transaction is expected to add approximately 1.867 billion yuan to the annualized net profit of the listed company, with a transaction P/E of about 6.0X [10]. - The acquisition will increase the company's total coal production capacity to 63 million tons per year [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Increase" for the C-REITs sector [6] Core Views - The C-REITs market is expected to present allocation opportunities in a low interest rate environment by 2025, with three main investment strategies suggested: focusing on policy themes and quality undervalued projects, recognizing the market's acknowledgment of weak cyclical assets, and monitoring the expansion of REITs alongside new issuances [5] Summary by Sections REITs Index Performance - The CSI REITs total return index increased by 0.86% this week, closing at 1050.5 points, while the CSI REITs closing index rose by 0.82% to 818.2 points [11][12] - Year-to-date, the CSI REITs total return index has risen by 8.53% [2] REITs Secondary Market Performance - The C-REITs secondary market showed signs of recovery this week, with a total market capitalization of approximately 222.47 billion yuan and an average market cap of about 2.9 billion yuan per REIT [13] - Among the listed REITs, 56 increased in value while 20 decreased, with an average weekly increase of 0.84% [13] REITs Valuation Performance - The internal rate of return (IRR) for listed REITs continues to show differentiation, with the top three being Huaxia China Communications REIT (9.6%), Ping An Guangzhou Guanghe REIT (9.3%), and E Fund Guangkai Industrial Park REIT (8.5%) [4] - Price-to-NAV ratios range from 0.7 to 1.8, with the highest being 1.8 for both Harvest Wumei Consumption REIT and E Fund Huawai Agricultural Market REIT [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on projects with recovery potential under policy themes, recognizing the market's acceptance of weak cyclical assets, and paying attention to original rights holders with ample asset reserves for future expansions [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [4] Core Views - The adjustment in coal prices is a normal digestion of previous rapid increases, with the core logic of rising coal prices (supply constraints) remaining unchanged [1][2] - In the context of limited supply, the initiation of demand (whether speculative or real) will lead to rising coal prices, with expectations for coal prices to peak at the end of the year, potentially exceeding market expectations [2] - The continuous rise in coal prices suggests that stock prices should not be a concern, and a more proactive approach is recommended, focusing on leading companies with absolute valuation advantages [2] Summary by Sections Market Review - The CITIC Coal Index was at 3991.33 points, down 0.78%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.3 percentage points, ranking 22nd among CITIC sectors [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - In October, China's raw coal production fell by 2.3% year-on-year, with a further decline in the rate compared to September [2] - The coal import volume in October decreased month-on-month, reaching a near three-month low, with international coal supply, especially from Indonesia, facing bottlenecks [2] - The upcoming cold wave is expected to increase daily coal consumption at power plants, potentially driving coal prices higher [2][7] Price Trends - As of November 14, the price of thermal coal at North Port was reported at 831 CNY/ton, an increase of 22 CNY/ton week-on-week, marking a new high for the year [6][39] - The report indicates that coal prices are likely to continue rising due to supply constraints, with demand determining the slope and final height of price increases [2][39] Key Investment Targets - The report recommends several stocks with "Buy" ratings, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Xinji Energy, among others, highlighting their strong performance and favorable valuations [11][12]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 11 16 年 月 日 纺织服饰 部分服饰制造公司 10 月营收公布 【本周专题】部分服饰制造公司 10 月营收公布 近期部分服饰制造公司公布 2025 年 10 月营收表现。2025 年 10 月丰泰企业/裕 元集团（制造业务）/儒鸿收入同比分别-2.3%/-7.7%/-6.9%（（2025 年 1~10 月累 计同比分别-4.1%/+1.2%/+4.1%），10 月单月数据环比波动。当前国际贸易环境 变化或对行业竞争格局带来影响，我们提醒后续持续关注服饰制造商订单趋势。 从全球市场的出口情况来看：东南亚国家服饰出口表现持续好于中国。1）中国： 2025 年 1~10 月服装及衣着附件出口金额为 1262 亿美元，同比-3.8%；纺织纱线 织物及其制品出口金额为 1177 亿美元，同比+0.9%。2）越南：2025 年 1~10 月 纺织品出口金额 329.3 亿美元，同比+7.7%（（2024 全年累计为同比+11.5%）；鞋 类出口金额 198.3 亿美元，同比+6.7%（2024 年全年累计为同比+12.3%）。 我们判断海外下游品牌商运 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the retail sector [5]. Core Insights - The 2025 "Double Eleven" shopping festival saw a total e-commerce sales of 1,695 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.2% [1]. - JD.com experienced the fastest growth among platforms, with a year-on-year increase of 15%, while Taobao/Tmall grew by 8% [1]. - Instant retail sales reached 67 billion yuan, marking a significant year-on-year growth of 138.4%, while community group buying saw a decline of 35.3% [2]. - AI technology has been deeply integrated across the retail chain, enhancing efficiency for both consumers and merchants [2]. - Consumer preferences during the festival leaned towards essential goods and quality products, with home appliances and digital devices being the top categories [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The retail index increased by 4.06% during the week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 4.23 percentage points [10]. - The overall e-commerce sales during the "Double Eleven" period reached 16,191 billion yuan, with a growth of 12.3% [2]. 2. Consumer Behavior - The top-selling categories during the "Double Eleven" included home appliances (16.5%), mobile devices (14.6%), and clothing (14.0%) [3]. - The report highlights a shift towards quality and necessity in consumer purchasing decisions [3]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the Hainan sector and sub-sectors with performance elasticity during the Spring Festival, including duty-free shopping and cross-border e-commerce [4]. - Specific companies recommended for investment include China Duty Free Group, Yonghui Supermarket, and Meituan [4]. 4. Industry Dynamics - The report notes that AI applications have transformed consumer interactions, with platforms like JD.com and Douyin leveraging AI for product recommendations [2][20]. - The "Double Eleven" event showcased significant growth in various brands, with many achieving record sales [20].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [4] Core Insights - The release of the 1360 document clarifies the development goals for renewable energy, focusing on the consumption and regulation of renewable energy. It emphasizes the importance of high-quality green electricity operators with advantageous resource locations, high project development efficiency, and low financing costs, particularly highlighting the relative advantages of offshore wind energy. Additionally, it recommends attention to flexible regulation resources such as thermal power, energy storage, and virtual power plants [3][7][12] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report reviews the market performance from November 10 to November 14, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,990.49 points, down 0.18%, and the CSI 300 Index at 4,628.14 points, down 1.08%. The CITIC Power and Utilities Index closed at 3,225.64 points, down 0.57%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.51 percentage points [1][56] New Policies and Guidelines - The National Energy Administration issued two guiding opinions on November 7 and November 12, focusing on the integration of coal and renewable energy and promoting the integrated development of renewable energy. These guidelines aim to enhance market mechanisms and price systems to accommodate the volatility of renewable energy output, stabilize long-term consumption space, and encourage the development of green certificate markets [3][12][13] Market Dynamics - The report notes that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the installed capacity of renewable energy in China has historically surpassed that of thermal power, marking a significant change in the energy structure. By 2030, the goal is to achieve reasonable consumption of 200 million kilowatts of renewable energy annually [3][13] Key Investment Opportunities - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong positions in green electricity, particularly those involved in offshore wind energy. It also suggests looking into flexible thermal power resources and energy storage solutions. Specific companies highlighted include Huaneng International, Huadian International, and Longyuan Power [7][8][12] Carbon Market Insights - The national carbon market saw a price increase of 4.12% over the week, with a trading volume of 16.775 million tons and a total transaction value of 1.008 billion yuan. The closing price on the last trading day was 60.17 yuan per ton [52][55] Company Performance - The report includes a table of key stocks with ratings, such as Zhejiang Energy Power and Huadian Power, all rated as "Buy" with projected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the coming years [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the optical module industry, including Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng [10]. Core Viewpoints - The optical module industry is experiencing a "volume increase and price increase" trend, driven by high global computing power demand, particularly for 1.6T optical modules, which have seen significant price increases [1][19]. - The retail price of 1.6T optical modules has risen from approximately $1200 at launch to over $2000, indicating a strong supply-demand imbalance [2][20]. - The price decline of 800G and lower-speed optical modules has slowed, with some products stabilizing or even increasing in price due to sustained demand and improved production capabilities [3][24]. Summary by Sections Demand Drivers - The demand for 1.6T optical modules has been continuously revised upward by major overseas clients, leading to a tight supply-demand relationship and significant price increases [2][20]. - The limited number of manufacturers capable of mass-producing 1.6T optical modules, primarily top companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng, contributes to the supply constraints [2][23]. Price Trends - The price decline for 800G and lower-speed optical modules has slowed, with the market experiencing a unique situation where demand growth outpaces historical price declines [3][25]. - The transition of 800G optical modules from development to accelerated mass production is stabilizing prices, with suppliers focusing on cost control and production capacity [3][25]. Capital Expenditure and Industry Expansion - Major cloud service providers are increasing their capital expenditures, with Google raising its 2025 capex guidance from $85 billion to $91-93 billion, indicating strong ongoing demand for computing power [4][29]. - Optical module manufacturers are actively expanding production capacity to meet the growing demand, with improvements expected in the supply of core optical chips and components [4][29]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on key players in the computing power supply chain, particularly in the optical module sector, including Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng, as well as related companies in optical devices and cooling solutions [8][13].