氢能产业园正式投产运行，积极布局可控核聚变领域 中国能建(601868) | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 韩其成(分析师) | 021-38676162 | hanqicheng@gtht.com | S0880516030004 | | 郭浩然(分析师) | 010-83939793 | guohaoran@gtht.com | S0880524020002 | | 曹有成(分析师) | 021-23185701 | caoyoucheng@gtht.com | S0880525040079 | 本报告导读： 2025Q1~3 归母净利润同减 12.4%，2025 年新签合同同增 2.9%。中能建松原氢能产 业园一期工程正式投产运行，公司积极布局可控核聚变领域。 投资要点： [维持增持。 Table_Summary] 3 季报业绩低于预期，下调预测 2025-2026 年 EPS0.21/0.22 增 3.7/7.2%，预测 2027 年 EPS 为 0.24 增 6.0%。维持目标价 2.96 元，对应 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" for HashKey Holdings [4]. Core Insights - HashKey is positioned as a leading player in the digital asset market in Hong Kong, with a comprehensive licensing framework and a focus on compliance, which is becoming increasingly critical as the digital asset landscape evolves [2][8]. - The company is expected to see significant revenue growth from 2025 to 2027, with projected revenues of HKD 7.82 billion, HKD 12.11 billion, and HKD 23.38 billion, representing year-on-year growth rates of 11%, 55%, and 90% respectively [8]. - HashKey's net profit is projected to improve significantly, moving from a loss of HKD 1.08 billion in 2025 to a profit of HKD 594 million by 2028 [8]. Summary by Sections 1. HashKey: Compliance First, Building a Full Ecosystem - HashKey was established with a "compliance first" strategy, obtaining full licenses from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission, making it a leading licensed virtual asset trading platform in Hong Kong [17][24]. - The company has developed a comprehensive ecosystem that includes trading facilitation, on-chain services, and asset management, catering to both institutional and retail clients [24][29]. 2. Focus on Institutional Trading Business, Gradual Improvement in Profitability - HashKey has shifted its focus towards institutional clients, with institutional trading volume increasing significantly, accounting for 68% of total trading volume in the first half of 2025 [30][34]. - The company has seen its trading volume grow from HKD 4.2 billion in 2022 to HKD 638.4 billion in 2024, driven by the launch of its trading platforms [30][34]. 3. Steady Progress on the Compliance Path, Attracting Institutional Participation - The tightening of global digital asset regulations has created a clear framework that enhances investor protection and promotes sustainable development in the digital asset industry [43]. - HashKey's comprehensive licensing and compliance strategy positions it as a preferred partner for institutions looking to engage in the digital asset space [8][43]. 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation Analysis - The report utilizes a price-to-sales (P/S) valuation method, comparing HashKey to peers like Coinbase and OSL, resulting in a valuation of HKD 28.1 billion and a target price of HKD 10.14 per share [8]. - HashKey's revenue is expected to grow significantly, with total revenues projected to reach HKD 3.415 billion by 2028, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [4][8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to HashKey Holdings with a target price of HKD 10.14, corresponding to a valuation of HKD 28.1 billion [4][8]. Core Insights - HashKey is positioned as a leading player in the digital asset market in Hong Kong, benefiting from comprehensive licensing and a closed-loop digital asset ecosystem. The company is expected to see significant revenue growth from 2025 to 2027, with projected revenues of HKD 7.82 billion, HKD 12.11 billion, and HKD 23.38 billion, representing year-on-year growth rates of 11%, 55%, and 90% respectively [2][8]. - The company has established a strong focus on institutional trading, with institutional revenue accounting for 85.52% of total income as of the first half of 2025, reflecting a strategic shift towards institutional clients [30][37]. - HashKey's business model is built around three main segments: trading facilitation, on-chain services, and asset management, which together create a comprehensive digital asset ecosystem [24][29]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from HKD 721 million in 2024 to HKD 3.415 billion by 2028, with a gross profit forecasted to increase from HKD 533 million to HKD 2.615 billion over the same period [4][9]. - The net profit is expected to improve significantly, moving from a loss of HKD 1.189 billion in 2024 to a profit of HKD 594 million by 2028, indicating a turnaround in profitability [4][9]. - The company’s financial ratios, including PE and PB, reflect a transition from negative values to positive as profitability improves, with a PE ratio projected to reach 34.76 by 2028 [4][10]. Business Model and Operations - HashKey operates as a centralized exchange, focusing on digital asset trading, on-chain services, and asset management, with a market share exceeding 75% in Hong Kong [24][27]. - The trading facilitation segment is the primary revenue source, supported by on-chain services and asset management, which together enhance the overall ecosystem [29][30]. - The company has made significant investments in compliance and technology to meet regulatory requirements across multiple jurisdictions, which is expected to enhance customer retention and operational efficiency [41][43].

利润增速保持强劲，资产质量连续七年优化 齐鲁银行(601665) 齐鲁银行 2025 年业绩快报点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马婷婷(分析师) | 021-23185608 | matingting@gtht.com | S0880525100001 | | 陈惠琴(分析师) | 021-38676666 | chenhuiqin@gtht.com | S0880525100003 | 本报告导读： 齐鲁银行业务规模保持较快增长，同时主动加强负债成本管控，净息差同比改善， 资产质量持续向好，打开信用成本下行空间，利润增速快于同业。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 11,952 | 12,496 | 13,125 | 14,259 | 15,809 | | (+/-)% | 8.0% | 4. ...

本报告导读： 同店维持正增，肯德基 TA 企稳。 投资要点： | 财务摘要(百万美元) | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 11,303 | 11,797 | 12,666 | 13,412 | 14,137 | | (+/-)% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.4% | | 毛利润 | 2,331 | 2,561 | 3,085 | 3,424 | 3,786 | | 净利润（归母） | 911 | 929 | 1,005 | 1,062 | 1,143 | | (+/-)% | 10.2% | 2.0% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 7.6% | | PE | | 19.02 | 17.51 | 15.89 | 14.32 | | PB | | 3.16 | 3.29 | 2.94 | 2.64 | | 资料来源：Wind，国泰海通证券研究 | | | | | | 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.05 同店销 ...

股 票 研 究 市场化改革及财富管理引领，ROE 向上拐点 兴业证券(601377) 兴业证券更新报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘欣琦(分析师) | 021-38676647 | liuxinqi@gtht.com | S0880515050001 | | 吴浩东(分析师) | 010-83939780 | wuhaodong@gtht.com | S0880524070001 | 本报告导读： 公司当前推进市场化改革，有望进一步发挥财富管理优势，ROE迎来向上拐点，维 持"增持"评级。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 10,627 | 12,354 | 12,207 | 13,994 | 15,255 | | (+/-)% | -0.3% | 16.2% | -1.2% | 14.6% | ...

市场化改革及财富管理引领，ROE 向上拐点 兴业证券(601377) 兴业证券更新报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘欣琦(分析师) | 021-38676647 | liuxinqi@gtht.com | S0880515050001 | | 吴浩东(分析师) | 010-83939780 | wuhaodong@gtht.com | S0880524070001 | 本报告导读： 公司当前推进市场化改革，有望进一步发挥财富管理优势，ROE迎来向上拐点，维 持"增持"评级。 投资要点： 股 票 研 究 | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 10,627 | 12,354 | 12,207 | 13,994 | 15,255 | | (+/-)% | -0.3% | 16.2% | -1.2% | 14.6% | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yum China (9987) is maintained as "Buy" [1] Core Insights - Same-store sales continue to show positive growth, with KFC's transaction average stabilizing [2] - The report forecasts a steady increase in revenue and net profit over the next few years, with a target price set at 500.00 HKD based on a 22x PE for 2026 [10] - The company is experiencing an increase in delivery sales, which now account for 53% of total sales, up from 51% in the previous quarter [10] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 11,303 million USD in 2024 to 14,137 million USD in 2028, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 5.4% [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 911 million USD in 2024 to 1,143 million USD in 2028, with a notable increase of 10.2% in 2024 [4] - The company’s PE ratio is projected to decrease from 19.02 in 2025 to 14.32 in 2028, indicating improving valuation metrics [4] Operational Performance - In Q4 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.823 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 9% [10] - Operating profit for Q4 2025 was 187 million USD, up 25% year-on-year, with an operating margin of 6.6% [10] - The total number of stores reached 18,101 by the end of 2025, marking a 10% year-on-year increase [10] Profitability Metrics - The restaurant profit margin improved to 13.0% in Q4 2025, up 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, driven by reduced costs in food, packaging, and rent [10] - KFC's restaurant profit margin was 14.0%, while Pizza Hut's was 9.9%, both showing improvements compared to the previous year [10]

债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.05 如何择时股债对冲效率 [Table_Authors] 唐元懋(分析师) 寻找跨资产定价的共振系数 本报告导读： 对冲效率看联动强度，联动强度看风险溢价。股息率是适合跟踪的风险溢价信号， 关键看股息率的边际变动。 投资要点： | | 0755-23976753 | | --- | --- | | | tangyuanmao@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524040002 | | | 孙飞帆(研究助理) | | | 021-23185647 | | | sunfeifan@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880125042242 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 "做陡曲线"还是"宏观对冲"，基金参与国债期 货的两面 2026.02.01 如何理解 ONRRP 类工具与双向隔夜回购 2026.01.30 承接"存款搬家"，理财投了什么，收益如何 2026.01.30 债券 ETF 规模跃升之后：业绩归因、策略优化与 未来挑战 2026.01.29 强者恒强，关注业绩筑底走向 2026.01.27 证 券 研 究 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the fiber optic cable industry [1]. Core Insights - The fiber optic industry is experiencing a significant price increase trend, driven by a surge in demand due to computational power competition and the growth of special and multimode fibers. The export performance of fiber optic cables is strong, confirming the industry's upward pricing trend [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Fiber Optic Industry Cycle and Price Trends - After being under pressure in the first half of last year, the price of fiber optic cables has been gradually recovering, particularly with increased demand for G657A2 overseas, leading to a reduction in G652D supply and longer delivery times. The price of G652D fiber has seen significant increases, with expectations for continued price hikes as major telecom operators prepare for procurement [8][9]. 2. Factors Driving Price Increases - The demand for fiber optic cables is continuously growing, with G652D fiber experiencing a structural shortage. Prices have risen significantly, with the latest market quotes reaching 30-40 yuan per core kilometer, reflecting a more than 50% increase over the previous year [16][22]. - The competition for computational power is a core driver of fiber demand, with data centers requiring significantly more fiber than traditional setups. The global demand for fiber optic cables is expected to increase by 75.9% in 2025, particularly for high-end products like G.654.E and OM5 multimode fibers [20][22]. - The supply side is constrained, with a slow growth in global fiber preform capacity and a shift towards high-demand AI and specialty fibers, leading to a more orderly supply of traditional products [30]. 3. Export Performance and Growth Opportunities - The export of fiber optic cables has become a crucial growth point for companies in the industry, with significant increases in overseas demand. In 2025, the total export volume of fiber optic products reached 454,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.1%, with export value rising by 44.1% [12][10]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading domestic fiber optic manufacturers such as Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable Joint Stock Limited Company, Hengtong Optic-Electric Co., Ltd., and Zhongtian Technology Co., Ltd., which are expected to benefit from the price increase trend and growing demand [51].