Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][7]. Core Insights - The core OTA platform's revenue growth has improved sequentially, with a focus on enhancing marketing efficiency and exploring incremental business opportunities [3][7]. - The company achieved a revenue of 4.377 billion RMB in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.22%, with core OTA revenue at 3.792 billion RMB, up 18.39% year-on-year [7]. - Adjusted net profit for Q1 2025 was 788 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 41.13%, with an adjusted net profit margin of 18.0%, up 3.6 percentage points year-on-year [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 17.341 billion RMB, 19.794 billion RMB, 22.456 billion RMB, and 25.647 billion RMB respectively, with growth rates of 49.12%, 14.15%, 13.45%, and 14.21% [6][9]. - The adjusted net profit for the same years is forecasted to be 1.974 billion RMB, 2.709 billion RMB, 3.294 billion RMB, and 3.891 billion RMB, with growth rates of 26.66%, 18.88%, 16.17%, and 14.42% respectively [6][9]. - The adjusted EBITDA for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 is expected to be 4.050 billion RMB, 4.667 billion RMB, 5.202 billion RMB, and 5.749 billion RMB, with corresponding EBITDA margins of 23.4%, 23.6%, 23.2%, and 22.4% [6][9]. Business Performance - The core OTA business's revenue growth has accelerated sequentially, with Q1 2025 showing a significant improvement compared to Q4 2024 [7]. - The company has focused on improving profit margins through refined operations, achieving a gross margin of 68.8%, a sales expense ratio of 33.2%, and a management expense ratio of 7.0% [7]. - The operating profit for the core OTA segment was 1.1 billion RMB, up 51.89% year-on-year, with an operating profit margin of 29%, an increase of 6.4 percentage points year-on-year [7].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the industry, indicating a potential return exceeding 15% relative to the CSI 300 index [3][9]. Core Insights - Tesla is positioned as a global leader in the commercialization of Robotaxi and humanoid robot industries, with the upcoming public trial of Robotaxi expected to significantly enhance the performance of the Tesla supply chain [2][3]. - The launch of Robotaxi is seen as a pivotal moment for the industry, transitioning from concept to reality, with substantial performance growth anticipated for related sectors [3]. - Key companies in the supply chain that are recommended for investment include Top Group, Zhaomin Technology, Junsheng Electronics, and Xinquan Co., which are expected to benefit from the growth of Robotaxi and humanoid robots [3]. Summary by Sections Tesla Robotaxi Launch - Elon Musk announced the tentative public trial date for Tesla's Robotaxi service as June 22, with an initial rollout of approximately 10 vehicles, scaling up to thousands over time [2][3]. - The expansion of Robotaxi services to cities like San Francisco is planned, although specific timelines have not been disclosed [3]. Management Changes - The head of Tesla's Optimus robot project has announced his departure, with the autonomous driving head taking over the project [3]. Industry Collaborations - UBTECH and Foxconn are collaborating in the humanoid robot sector, focusing on deep applications in smart manufacturing and talent development [3]. - This partnership aims to create a closed-loop ecosystem for technology research, scenario validation, talent cultivation, and industrial application [3]. Financial Projections - Financial estimates for key companies include: - Top Group: EPS forecast of 1.73 CNY for 2024, with a PE ratio of 28 [4]. - Zhaomin Technology: EPS forecast of 0.59 CNY for 2024, with a PE ratio of 79 [4]. - Junsheng Electronics: EPS forecast of 0.68 CNY for 2024, with a PE ratio of 26 [4]. - Xinquan Co.: EPS forecast of 2.00 CNY for 2024, with a PE ratio of 23 [4].

Inflation Data - In May 2025, the US CPI year-on-year growth was 2.4%, slightly up from 2.3% in the previous month, aligning with market expectations[5] - The core CPI remained at 2.8%, below the market expectation of 2.9%[6] - Month-on-month, the CPI increased by 0.1%, down from 0.2% in April, and below the expected 0.2%[6] Core Components - Energy prices significantly impacted the CPI, with energy inflation decreasing by 1.0% month-on-month, dragging down the CPI by 0.1 percentage points[7] - Core goods inflation showed limited upward pressure, with notable increases in specific items like furniture, auto parts, and pharmaceuticals, while clothing and new cars saw declines[9] - Core services inflation also weakened, particularly in rent and medical services, with rent decreasing by 0.1 percentage points to 0.2%[9] Federal Reserve Outlook - The report suggests that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower interest rates in the short term due to stable employment and significant inflation uncertainties[3] - Market expectations indicate potential rate cuts in September and December, with a forecasted reduction of 50 basis points[19] Tariff Impact - The report highlights a lag in the transmission of tariffs to inflation, with companies remaining cautious in price increases amid uncertain consumer and tariff outlooks[3] - The anticipated impact of tariffs on core goods may become evident as inventory levels decrease and companies adjust pricing strategies[16] Future Considerations - There is a need to monitor inflationary pressures, particularly in food prices and energy costs, which may rise in the coming months[16] - The Cleveland Fed estimates that the CPI year-on-year growth could rise to approximately 2.7% in June 2025[16]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the environmental protection industry [1][30]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the investment opportunities arising from the resolution of hidden local government debts, which is expected to improve the balance sheets of environmental companies. Since 2018, risks associated with local government hidden debts have been alleviated, with a target to completely resolve these debts by the end of 2028, involving an increase of 6 trillion yuan in local government debt limits to replace existing hidden debts [4][9][11]. Summary by Sections Weekly Investment Perspective - The report highlights the ongoing efforts to limit new local government debt while addressing existing hidden debts, focusing on the investment opportunities this creates for environmental companies. The goal is to resolve all hidden debts by the end of 2028, with a total of 6 trillion yuan in new debt limits to facilitate this process [4][8][9]. Environmental Sector Performance - The environmental sector experienced a slight increase of 0.46% in the week of June 3 to June 6, 2025. In comparison, the gas and water sectors rose by 1.95% and 0.79%, respectively. The report also lists the top five gainers and losers among environmental stocks during this period [12][13][14]. Carbon Neutrality Tracking - The report provides data on carbon market transactions, noting that the national carbon emissions trading quota (CEA) saw a transaction volume of 2.22 million tons, a 5% increase from the previous week, with an average transaction price of 67.21 yuan per ton. Local trading exchanges saw a significant drop in transaction volume, down 74% [16][21]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific companies within the environmental sector based on their potential for growth due to the ongoing debt resolution policies. Key recommendations include: - Solid Waste: China Everbright International, Sanfeng Environment, Green Power, and Hanlan Environment - Water Services: Beijing Enterprises Water Group and Guangdong Investment - Engineering Services: Delin Hai - Environmental Monitoring Equipment: Xuedilong [11][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the company [7] Core Views - The takeaway from the report is that the new product development and the competitive landscape in the food delivery sector are driving short-term demand for the tea beverage industry, with the company enhancing its R&D and supply chain capabilities to improve competitiveness [2][3] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to generate revenues of 57.04 billion, 61.84 billion, and 66.84 billion RMB for the years 2025-2027, with growth rates of 16%, 8%, and 8% respectively [11] - Adjusted net profits are projected to be 9.45 billion, 10.60 billion, and 11.61 billion RMB for the same period, with growth rates of 47%, 12%, and 10% respectively [12][14] Industry Dynamics - The tea beverage industry is experiencing high demand driven by a price war and new product cycles, with a marginal improvement in industry dynamics since the second half of 2024 [19] - The health trend is leading to a new product cycle, with consumers increasingly favoring healthier options, such as those featuring superfoods like kale [27][28] R&D and Supply Chain Enhancements - The company has strengthened its R&D capabilities, increasing the frequency of new product launches to 5-8 per month, resulting in a higher rate of successful products [37][38] - A comprehensive supply chain network has been established, ensuring timely delivery of fresh ingredients to stores, which enhances product quality and operational efficiency [39] Revenue Recovery and Cost Control - The company is expected to see a revenue recovery in 2025, driven by a low base effect, accelerated new product launches, and the impact of the food delivery competition, which is estimated to boost same-store sales by approximately 8% [40] - The total number of stores is projected to stabilize and increase in the latter half of 2025, with a net addition of 1,100 stores expected [15][40]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating with a target price of 27.83 yuan, reflecting a positive outlook on the company's performance in the smart transportation sector [2][11]. Core Insights - The company has recently signed contracts for two major projects in Jiangsu and Hunan, totaling approximately 329 million yuan, indicating a significant growth phase for its smart transportation business [3]. - The smart transportation industry is experiencing high demand driven by both policy support and market needs, with government initiatives aimed at digital transformation in transportation infrastructure [11]. - The company is expected to see substantial revenue growth, with projected revenues of 1.35 billion yuan in 2025, representing a 50% year-on-year increase [5][13]. Financial Summary - Revenue is forecasted to grow from 896 million yuan in 2024 to 3.08 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 42.7% [5]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 210 million yuan in 2024 to 601 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [5]. - The company's gross margin is projected to remain stable, with slight fluctuations, indicating effective cost management and product optimization [11][13]. Market Data - The company's market capitalization is approximately 9.33 billion yuan, with a current share price of 16.07 yuan [6][11]. - The stock has shown a 52-week price range between 16.04 and 25.90 yuan, indicating volatility but also potential for growth [6]. Projected Financial Performance - The company is expected to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of 0.58 yuan in 2025, increasing to 1.04 yuan by 2027, which supports the positive investment rating [11][12]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 7.7% in 2024 to 17.7% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability and efficiency [5][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating with a target price of 27.83 yuan, reflecting a potential upside based on the company's growth prospects [2][11]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing a surge in orders due to its successful bids for major projects in Jiangsu and Hunan, totaling approximately 329 million yuan, indicating a significant growth phase in its smart transportation business [3][11]. - The smart transportation industry is driven by both policy support and market demand, with the government planning to support the digital transformation of transportation infrastructure over the next three years [11]. - The company reported a revenue of 896 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 20.75%, and a net profit of 210 million yuan, reflecting a 9.81% growth [11]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections show a strong upward trend, with expected revenues of 1,346 million yuan in 2025, 2,160 million yuan in 2026, and 3,083 million yuan in 2027, representing growth rates of 50.3%, 60.5%, and 42.7% respectively [5][12]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to reach 338 million yuan in 2025, 461 million yuan in 2026, and 601 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 61.2%, 36.3%, and 30.4% respectively [5][12]. - The company's gross margin is projected to be around 44% in 2025, slightly declining to 40% by 2027 [13]. Market Data - The company's market capitalization is approximately 9.326 billion yuan, with a current share price of 16.07 yuan [6][11]. - The stock has shown a 52-week price range between 16.04 and 25.90 yuan, indicating volatility but also potential for growth [6][11]. Order Growth - The company has secured contracts for two major projects in 2025, which are expected to significantly boost its revenue and demonstrate its competitive strength in the smart transportation sector [11].

- The report introduces a macro timing model called "Countercyclical Allocation Model" which predicts macroeconomic environments using proxy variables. For Q2 2025, the model forecasts an "Inflation" environment, with asset returns as follows: CSI 300 (-0.34%), CSI 2000 (0.75%), Nanhua Commodity (-5.60%), and ChinaBond National Debt Total Wealth Index (1.43%) [20][26][33] - A "Macro Momentum Model" is constructed for monthly timing signals, incorporating factors such as economic growth, inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, and risk sentiment. This model is used for timing stock, bond, and gold allocations. For June 2025, returns are CSI 300 (0.88%), ChinaBond National Debt Total Wealth Index (0.23%), and AU9999 gold contract (1.60%) [20][26][33] - The "Industry ETF Rotation Strategy" is based on multi-factor models including historical fundamentals, expected fundamentals, sentiment, technical price-volume factors, and macroeconomic indicators. It matches ETFs with 23 primary industry benchmarks and constructs a rotation strategy. For June 2025, the recommended ETFs are: CSI Securities ETF (512880.SH), CSI Semiconductor ETF (512480.SH), CSI Banking ETF (512800.SH), and CSI Consumer ETF (159928.SZ), each with a 25% weight. Weekly and monthly returns are 1.66% with an excess return of 0.05% over Wind All A Index [21][23][24] - The "Absolute Return Strategy" includes several configurations: - Macro Timing-based "Stock-Bond 20/80 Rebalancing Strategy" with weekly return 0.34%, YTD return -0.52%, annualized volatility 3.03%, max drawdown 1.78%, and Sharpe ratio -0.40 [25][26][27] - Macro Timing-based "Stock-Bond Risk Parity Strategy" with weekly return 0.25%, YTD return 0.14%, annualized volatility 1.81%, max drawdown 1.50%, and Sharpe ratio 0.18 [25][26][27] - Macro Timing-based "Stock-Bond-Gold Risk Parity Strategy" with weekly return 0.37%, YTD return 0.91%, annualized volatility 2.27%, max drawdown 1.49%, and Sharpe ratio 0.95 [25][26][28] - Macro Timing + Industry ETF Rotation-based "Stock-Bond 20/80 Rebalancing Strategy" with weekly return 0.45%, YTD return -0.30%, annualized volatility 3.38%, max drawdown 1.64%, and Sharpe ratio -0.21 [25][26][31] - Macro Timing + Industry ETF Rotation-based "Stock-Bond Risk Parity Strategy" with weekly return 0.29%, YTD return 0.27%, annualized volatility 1.87%, max drawdown 1.45%, and Sharpe ratio 0.33 [25][26][31] - The "Quantitative Fixed Income Plus Strategy" includes stock-side factors such as PB profitability, high dividend yield, small-cap value, and small-cap growth. Performance metrics are as follows: - Non-timing 10/90 monthly rebalancing: PB profitability (YTD 1.43%), high dividend yield (YTD 0.95%), small-cap value (YTD 3.15%), small-cap growth (YTD 2.89%) [33][35][36] - Non-timing 20/80 monthly rebalancing: PB profitability (YTD 2.22%), high dividend yield (YTD 1.26%), small-cap value (YTD 5.71%), small-cap growth (YTD 5.16%) [33][35][36] - Macro Timing 20/80 monthly rebalancing: PB profitability (YTD 2.12%), high dividend yield (YTD 1.49%), small-cap value (YTD 3.40%), small-cap growth (YTD 3.31%) [33][35][38] - Countercyclical 20/80 quarterly rebalancing: PB profitability + small-cap value (YTD 2.22%), PB profitability + small-cap growth (YTD 2.22%) [33][35][38]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Apple Inc. (AAPL.O) [1][5][7] Core Insights - The opening of foundational models to developers allows third-party developers to integrate built-in LLMs into their apps, further enhancing Apple's ecosystem advantage [5][7] - Apple Intelligence updates include real-time translation and visual intelligence features, while Siri still requires further refinement [5][7] - The introduction of a new "liquid glass" operating system design represents a significant aesthetic innovation for Apple, enhancing user focus on core content [5][7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY2025E, FY2026E, and FY2027E are $409.5 billion, $434.8 billion, and $460.4 billion respectively, with GAAP net profit estimates of $110.1 billion, $117.1 billion, and $124.8 billion [4][5][7] - The projected PE ratio for FY2025 is 37x, reflecting a premium valuation due to Apple's strengths in data, ecosystem, and self-developed hardware and software integration [5][7] - The current market capitalization is approximately $3,008.82 billion, with a current stock price of $201.45 [2][4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for Amer Sports [1] Core Views - The company is positioned in the high-end multi-brand outdoor sports segment, with strong growth potential driven by its core brands and strategic expansion in the Greater China region [3][6] - The company has streamlined its brand matrix post-acquisition, focusing on high-potential brands like Arc'teryx, Salomon, and Wilson, which are expected to drive significant revenue growth [10][12] Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from $3.55 billion in 2022 to $8.23 billion by 2027, with a CAGR of 17.4% [5] - Net profit is expected to turn positive in 2024, reaching $730 million by 2027, with a significant increase of 515.9% in 2025 [5] - The company’s PE ratio is projected to decrease from 293.59 in 2024 to 29.96 by 2027, indicating improving profitability [5] Market Expansion and Brand Performance - The company has seen a revenue increase of 542% in the Greater China region from 2020 to 2024, with a revenue share increase of 17 percentage points to 25% [6][31] - Arc'teryx is expected to double its revenue, driven by strong DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) strategies and store expansion [42] - Salomon and Wilson are also expected to see significant growth, with Salomon's revenue projected to reach $1.44 billion in 2024 [45][64] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on enhancing its DTC sales, which have grown significantly, with a 43.8% annual increase from 2019 to 2024 [31] - The management team has been restructured to include experienced leaders from various high-profile brands, enhancing operational efficiency and brand strategy [26][27] Competitive Landscape - The outdoor sports market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 7.1% in the Asia-Pacific region, with China projected to become the largest market for outdoor footwear and apparel by 2030 [6][18] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on this growth due to its strong local shareholder backing and brand recognition [6][10]