国泰海通晨报 2025 年 10 月 21 日 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 [Table_Summary] 1、【政策研究】："十五五"时期是我国迈向 2035 年远景目标的关键攻坚期，必须坚持以新质生 产力为核心驱动，通过科技创新和产业升级推动高质量发展，同时在复杂多变的国际环境中统筹 改革开放、安全发展与民生福祉。 2、【海外科技研究】海外科技：OpenAI 动作频频：再签 10GW 博通算力订单，布局底层硬件能 力；ChatGPT 接入沃尔玛、计划推出消费级硬件产品，持续探索更多商业模式。 [汤蔚翔 Table_Authors] (分析师) 电话：021-38676172 邮箱：tangweixiang@gtht.com 登记编号：S0880511010007 [Table_ImportantInfo] 今日重点推荐 李明亮(分析师) 021-23185835 limingliang@gtht.com S0880525040001 纪尧(分析师) 021-23185836 jiyao@gtht.com S0880525040003 孙欣欣(分析师) 021-38038562 sunxinxin@g ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for China Life Insurance [7][14]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2025, projected to grow by 50%-70% year-on-year, primarily driven by substantial improvements in investment income and insurance service performance [2][14]. - The report highlights the positive impact of the recovering equity market, which has exceeded expectations, contributing to the company's improved profitability [4][14]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2023A: 405,040 million - 2024A: 528,567 million - 2025E: 665,291 million (26% increase from 2024A) - 2026E: 657,033 million (1% decrease from 2025E) - 2027E: 728,939 million (11% increase from 2026E) [5][15] - **Net Profit (Attributable to Shareholders)**: - 2023A: 51,184 million - 2024A: 106,935 million (109% increase from 2023A) - 2025E: 181,868 million (70% increase from 2024A) - 2026E: 192,657 million (6% increase from 2025E) - 2027E: 212,462 million (10% increase from 2026E) [5][15] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023A: 1.81 - 2024A: 3.78 - 2025E: 6.43 - 2026E: 6.82 - 2027E: 7.52 [5][15] - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: - 2023A: 11% - 2024A: 21% - 2025E: 30% - 2026E: 27% - 2027E: 26% [5][15] Investment Drivers - The report emphasizes the strong growth in new business value (NBV), expected to increase by 30.7% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, benefiting from proactive sales strategies before the adjustment of the "831" interest rate [14]. - The company has significantly increased its allocation to equity investments, with core equity assets reaching 969.123 billion, a 35.7% increase from the first half of 2024, which is expected to enhance investment returns [14][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - Demand is expected to gradually bottom out, and supply-side market clearing has begun, indicating a potential recovery in the steel industry's fundamentals. If supply policies are implemented, the contraction of supply may accelerate, leading to quicker industry recovery [3][8]. - The report highlights a week-on-week increase in steel consumption and a decrease in inventory levels, suggesting a positive trend in demand recovery post-holiday [5][12]. - Profit margins for steel production have decreased, with average gross margins for rebar and hot-rolled coils declining significantly [5][42]. Summary by Sections Steel Prices and Inventory - Last week, the price of Shanghai rebar fell by 50 CNY/ton to 3210 CNY/ton, a decrease of 1.54%. Hot-rolled coil prices dropped by 120 CNY/ton to 3280 CNY/ton, a decline of 3.53% [8]. - Total inventory of major steel products decreased to 15.82 million tons, down 1.15% week-on-week [12]. Raw Materials - Iron ore spot prices decreased by 10 CNY/ton to 780 CNY/ton, while futures prices fell by 24.5 CNY/ton to 771 CNY/ton [51]. - Iron ore port inventory rose to 142.78 million tons, an increase of 1.81% [53]. Production and Profitability - The total steel production last week was 8.57 million tons, a decrease of 6.36 million tons week-on-week [36]. - The average gross margin for rebar was 111.6 CNY/ton, down 34.3 CNY/ton, while for hot-rolled coils, it was 21.6 CNY/ton, down 67.6 CNY/ton [42]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the demand for steel will stabilize, with a gradual recovery expected in the construction and manufacturing sectors, despite ongoing challenges in the real estate market [5][8]. - The steel industry is expected to benefit from policies aimed at reducing inefficient production capacity and promoting high-quality development [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [6][12]. Core Views - The main brand experienced low single-digit revenue growth in Q3, while the Saucony brand saw revenue growth exceeding 20%. The overall annual expectations remain unchanged [2][12]. - The report anticipates a healthy inventory level, projecting it to decrease to below 2 billion by the end of 2025. The dividend payout ratio is expected to be no less than 50% for the year [12]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to be 14,470 million RMB in 2025, reflecting a 6.6% increase from 2024. Net profit is expected to reach 1,373 million RMB, a 10.8% increase from the previous year [11][12]. - The company is expected to maintain a PE ratio of 10.9 in 2025, with a target price of 8.74 HKD based on a 15X PE for 2026 [12][15]. - The financial ratios indicate a projected ROE of 14.6% and a sales net profit margin of 9.49% for 2025 [13].

Core Insights - The report indicates that high-frequency factors continued to retract, while multi-granularity factors showed some rebound. The AI-enhanced portfolios have sustained a rebound, with the strictly constrained 1000 enhanced portfolio achieving a record high in excess returns [2][5]. Summary by Sections 1. High-Frequency Factors, Deep Learning Factors, and AI Enhanced Portfolio Performance Summary - The report summarizes the historical and 2025 performance of high-frequency stock selection factors, including multi-factor returns and excess returns for October and year-to-date [8]. - The high-frequency skew factor had a multi-directional return of -0.54% for the last week, -2.03% for October, and 20.66% year-to-date [10]. - The deep learning high-frequency factor (improved GRU(50,2)+NN(10)) reported a multi-directional return of 0.62% for the last week, 0.38% for October, and 43.14% year-to-date [12]. 2. Weekly Rebalancing of AI Index Enhanced Portfolios - The weekly rebalancing of the CSI 500 AI enhanced wide constraint portfolio achieved excess returns of 3.51%, 4.71%, and 4.65% for the last week, October, and year-to-date respectively [13]. - The weekly rebalancing of the CSI 1000 AI enhanced strict constraint portfolio achieved excess returns of 2.21%, 3.99%, and 17.63% for the last week, October, and year-to-date respectively [13]. 3. Performance of Specific Factors - The opening buy intention strength factor had a multi-directional return of -0.98% for the last week, -2.72% for October, and 23.09% year-to-date [10]. - The average single outflow amount factor reported a multi-directional return of -0.90% for the last week, -1.90% for October, and -2.44% year-to-date [10]. - The deep learning factor (multi-granularity model - 5-day label) achieved a multi-directional return of 2.04% for the last week, 2.53% for October, and 55.62% year-to-date [12].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the humanoid robot industry [1]. Core Insights - The humanoid robot industry is witnessing rapid commercialization, with leading domestic companies launching new products and securing significant orders. The focus should be on event-driven fluctuations in industry sentiment in the short term, while long-term attention should be on high-quality companies with a clear position in the supply chain [5][6]. - The launch of the ZhiYuan Robot's G2 model marks a significant step in the application of interactive embodied intelligence technology in the automotive parts manufacturing sector, enhancing the industry's smart upgrade [5][6]. - The first batch of G2 robots will be deployed in the production line of Junsheng Electronics, aiming to improve production efficiency and reduce operational errors through human-machine collaboration [5][6]. Summary by Sections Recent Developments - ZhiYuan Robot and Junpu Intelligent held a launch event for the G2 robot, which is set to transform automotive manufacturing with its interactive capabilities [3][5]. - UBTECH secured a major contract worth 126 million yuan for the Walker humanoid robot, bringing its total orders for the year to over 630 million yuan, leading the global commercialization of humanoid robots [5][6]. Company Performance Forecast and Financial Valuation - The report includes performance forecasts and financial valuations for several companies in the humanoid robot sector, all rated as "Accumulate": - Meihu Co., Ltd. (603319.SH): EPS forecast for 2025E is 0.75 yuan, with a PE ratio of 48 [6]. - Ningbo Huaxiang (002048.SZ): EPS forecast for 2025E is 0.55 yuan, with a PE ratio of 57 [6]. - Top Group (601689.SH): EPS forecast for 2025E is 1.88 yuan, with a PE ratio of 35 [6]. - Zhaomin Technology (301000.SZ): EPS forecast for 2025E is 0.78 yuan, with a PE ratio of 56 [6]. - Junsheng Electronics (600699.SH): EPS forecast for 2025E is 1.12 yuan, with a PE ratio of 26 [6]. - Xinquan Co., Ltd. (603179.SH): EPS forecast for 2025E is 2.37 yuan, with a PE ratio of 28 [6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" to the company with a target price of 47.95 CNY [5][11][20] Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in overlay welding technology, actively expanding into the AI and oil and gas infrastructure sectors, with expectations of entering a high growth phase over the next 3-5 years [2][11][19] - The company has a strong financial outlook, with projected revenues increasing significantly from 5.51 billion CNY in 2025 to 16.78 billion CNY by 2027, alongside a substantial rise in net profit [18][19] Summary by Sections 1. Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of 0.60, 1.37, and 2.27 CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a robust growth trajectory [11][18] - The revenue from waste incineration and other businesses is projected to account for 68.5% and 31.5% of total revenue in 2024 [15] 2. Company Overview - Established in 2007, the company has developed advanced overlay welding technology and has a strong foothold in the waste incineration market, with a market penetration rate of 40% in domestic waste incineration boiler markets by 2021 [23][30] - The company has successfully expanded its product offerings to include high-end structural components and pressure vessels, catering to various industries including energy and chemicals [26][30] 3. Financial Performance - The company’s total revenue is forecasted to fluctuate from 6.04 billion CNY in 2023 to 4.60 billion CNY in 2024, before rebounding to 5.51 billion CNY in 2025 [17][18] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve gradually, reaching 31.36% by 2027 [18] 4. Market Opportunities - The company is strategically positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for gas turbine heat recovery systems and oil and gas composite pipes, with significant market potential projected in these areas [11][19][20] - The global market for bimetallic composite pipes is expected to grow significantly, driven by the oil and gas sector, which is anticipated to account for approximately 73% of the market by 2030 [11][19] 5. Competitive Landscape - The company faces competition primarily from established players in the oil and gas composite pipe market, but its unique technology and strategic partnerships may provide a competitive edge [11][19][20] - The report highlights the importance of the company's partnerships and joint ventures in expanding its market reach and technological capabilities [35][36]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company [5]. Core Insights - The company is a leading domestic innovative pharmaceutical enterprise focusing on ADC combined with IO, with expectations for rapid growth following the approval of MRG003 [2]. - The product pipeline includes plans for international business development, indicating a positive long-term outlook for the company [2]. Financial Summary - Projected total revenue for 2024A is 368 million RMB, with a growth rate of 63%. By 2027E, revenue is expected to reach 1,665 million RMB, with a growth rate of 38% [4]. - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of -411 million RMB in 2024A, improving to -29 million RMB by 2027E [4]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to improve from -10.04 in 2024A to -389.49 in 2027E, while the price-to-book (PB) ratio is projected to increase from 5.87 to 18.86 over the same period [4]. Company Overview - The company was established in January 2018 and focuses on innovative treatments for cancer, particularly targeted therapies and immunotherapies [13]. - The company has built a robust product pipeline through acquisitions and partnerships, including PD-1 antibodies and ADC drugs [13][15]. - The management team is experienced, with a high concentration of ownership, ensuring stability and strategic direction [15][19]. Market Potential - The global and Chinese cancer immunotherapy market is expected to grow significantly, with a projected CAGR of 16.3% and 25.1% respectively from 2025 to 2030 [30]. - The PD-1 therapy market in China is anticipated to reach 582 billion RMB by 2030, with a CAGR of 30.5% from 2020 to 2025 [33]. Product Pipeline and Development - The company has multiple tumor product pipelines covering immunotherapy, ADC targeted therapy, and oncolytic virus drugs [20]. - MRG003 is currently under NDA review for treating R/M NPC, with potential for significant market impact [22]. - The company is also exploring combination therapies with PD-1 antibodies, which may enhance treatment efficacy [20]. Sales Growth - The company's first commercial product, the PD-1 antibody, has seen rapid sales growth, achieving 300 million RMB in revenue in 2024, three times the revenue of 2023 [23][36]. - The company has expanded its sales network across 118 cities in China, enhancing its market presence [36].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Pacific Insurance (2328) [6][10]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a net profit increase of 40%-60% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by improvements in underwriting profit and investment income [2][10]. - The target price has been raised to HKD 22.82, corresponding to a 2025 P/B ratio of 1.6 times [10]. Financial Summary - Insurance service revenue is projected to grow from RMB 457,203 million in 2023 to RMB 559,006 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 5% [5]. - Net profit is expected to increase significantly from RMB 24,585 million in 2023 to RMB 56,609 million in 2027, with a notable growth rate of 47.9% in 2025 [5]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is forecasted to decrease from 15.44 in 2023 to 6.71 in 2027, indicating a potential undervaluation of the stock [5]. Key Drivers - The recovery of the equity market and significant improvement in expense ratios are identified as catalysts for the company's performance [4][10]. - The company has effectively reduced claims and controlled costs, with expectations of a combined ratio (COR) of 96% for auto insurance and 99% for non-auto insurance in 2025 [10]. Investment Strategy - The company is optimizing its asset allocation, increasing its exposure to high-quality equity assets, which is expected to enhance total investment income significantly [10].

Domestic Macro - On October 11, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on "High-Quality Completion of the 14th Five-Year Plan" [5] - On October 12, the Ministry of Commerce stated that China's rare earth export controls do not constitute a ban on exports, and applications that meet the requirements will be permitted [5][6] - On October 14, Premier Li Qiang hosted a meeting with economic experts and entrepreneurs, emphasizing the need to enhance counter-cyclical adjustments [5][6] - On October 15, the central bank announced a 600 billion yuan six-month reverse repurchase operation, with a cumulative net injection of 400 billion yuan for the month [5][6] - On October 16, China expressed an open attitude regarding the possibility of new Sino-U.S. trade talks [5][6] Industry Policy - On October 10, the Ministry of Natural Resources released the "Guidelines for Revitalizing and Optimizing Urban Stock Space," indicating that revitalizing existing space will be a key task in future land use planning [6][18] - On October 10, the Financial Regulatory Authority issued a document to strengthen regulation of non-auto insurance businesses, focusing on issues such as irregular operations and irrational competition [6][18] - On October 11, the central bank solicited opinions on the "Management Measures for Identifying Beneficial Owners of Financial Institution Clients" [6][18] - On October 12, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and six other departments issued a plan to promote service-oriented manufacturing innovation [6][18] - On October 15, six departments, including the National Development and Reform Commission, issued a "Three-Year Doubling" action plan for electric vehicle charging facilities [6][18] Local Policy - On October 10, Shanghai adjusted the rules for the 2025 automobile trade-in subsidy program [7][21] - On October 11, the Shanghai Municipal Government released measures to accelerate the cultivation of future industries, focusing on six key areas [7][21] - On October 12, the Hainan Provincial Government announced that the "Hainan Free Trade Port Tourism Regulations" will take effect on December 1, 2025, gradually relaxing restrictions on foreign investment in tourism [7][21] - On October 15, the second batch of Shanghai Free Trade Zone innovation zone construction plans was released [7][21] Overseas Dynamics - On October 10, China announced countermeasures against U.S. restrictions on the shipbuilding industry, starting to charge special port fees for U.S. vessels from October 14 [8] - On October 11, the global cryptocurrency market experienced a "black swan" event, with over 19 billion USD in liquidations in a single day [8] - On October 12, Chinese semiconductor assets worth 14.7 billion USD were frozen by the Dutch government [8] - On October 15, China filed a complaint with the WTO against India's electric vehicle and battery subsidy measures [8]