Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of HKD 135.84, which corresponds to a PE of 26x for 2025 [7]. Core Views - The company reported April delivery of 34,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 32% but a month-on-month decrease of 7%. The decline is attributed to the transition between old and new models, with the new MEGA Ultra version expected to boost sales [1][2]. - The upcoming launch of the L series smart refresh is anticipated to drive sales upward, with significant upgrades in technology and features [3]. - The company is positioned to enter a new product cycle with its pure electric series, supported by a robust charging infrastructure and positive market reception [4]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - April sales showed a year-on-year increase of 32%, but a month-on-month decrease of 7%, influenced by the transition of models and ongoing promotions [1][2]. - The MEGA Ultra refresh and Home version are expected to enhance sales performance due to improved product features and marketing strategies [2]. Product Development - The L series smart refresh is set to launch in May, featuring significant technological upgrades that are likely to stimulate sales [3]. - The next-generation smart driving architecture, VLA model, is expected to enhance the company's competitive edge in the market [3]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of CNY 10.33 billion, CNY 16.03 billion, and CNY 17.74 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 18.9, 12.2, and 11.0 [11][13]. - The projected revenue growth rates for the upcoming years are 15.8% for 2025, 40.4% for 2026, and 20.0% for 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a 6-month target price of 32.79 CNY per share, compared to the current price of 22.58 CNY per share [4]. Core Views - The report indicates that the company has shown a recovery in sales, with April wholesale sales reaching 100,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 6% and a month-on-month increase of 2% [2]. - The introduction of new models, such as the Tank 300 and the second-generation Haval Max, is expected to contribute positively to sales growth [2][3]. - The company is entering a new growth phase, with expectations of increased sales in the mainstream market and significant potential in the off-road vehicle segment [3]. Sales Performance - April sales included 29,000 units of new energy vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 28% and a month-on-month increase of 14%, while fuel vehicle sales were 71,000 units, showing a year-on-year decrease of 2% [2]. - The Tank brand sold 19,000 units in April, with the Tank 300 contributing significantly to this figure, achieving sales of 11,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 13% [2]. - Haval brand sales reached 57,000 units in April, a year-on-year increase of 21%, attributed to the launch of the second-generation Haval Max [2]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 140.3 billion CNY, 174.0 billion CNY, and 209.6 billion CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 13.8, 11.1, and 9.2 [8][9]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 1,732.1 billion CNY in 2023 to 3,364.9 billion CNY by 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [9][10]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the mainstream market for new vehicles is entering a growth phase, with the company’s refined product offerings and marketing strategies likely to drive sales upward [3]. - The Hi4Z technology is expected to enhance the company's competitive edge in the off-road vehicle market, potentially leading to significant profit margins [3]. - The company has a diverse product lineup and strong technological capabilities, which are anticipated to boost export potential as new models are introduced [3].

2025 年 05 月 05 日 比亚迪(002594.SZ) 4 月主品牌表现稳健，高端品牌&出海增长亮眼 事件：比亚迪发布产销公告，2025 年 4 月共销售乘用车 37.1 万辆，37.3 万台、同比+19%、环比基本持平；其中纯电销售 19.6 万台、同比+46%、环 比+18%，插混销售 17.7 万台、同比基本持平、环比-14%。 我们认为公司 4 月销量符合预期，同比增长预计主要受到新车型拉动， 环比基本持平，预计虽老款清库、促销力度较大，但仍受整体终端需求较 平淡以及智驾版尚未大范围优惠等影响。 王朝海洋网基本盘表现稳健：4 月王朝网销售 16.4 万台、同比+3%、环 比-7%，海洋网销售 18.1 万台、同比+30%、环比+5%。4 月汉 L、唐 L 正式 上市，纯电版均搭载超级 e 平台、可实现"兆瓦闪充"，插混版均首搭第五 代 DM 技术 DM-p 王者混动，且全系标配天神之眼 B 智驾系统、Dilink150 高阶智能座舱，具备较强竞争力，4 月汉 L、唐 L 分别销售 1.0 万、1.1 万 台。 高端品牌增长亮眼：4 月腾势品牌销售 1.5 万台、同比+38%、环比+22%， 主 ...

2025 年 05 月 05 日 5 月科技第二波：初现端倪 五一节前一周上证指数跌 0.49%，沪深 300 跌 0.43%，恒生指数涨 0.63%，成 长风格表现强于价值风格。期间全 A 日均交易额 11039 亿，环比上周有所下降。 同时，五一假期期间 comex 黄金下跌 2.16%，伦铜、布油分别上涨 2.64%和 0.64%，美股科技股和人民币资产大涨，费城半导体指数大涨 3.95%，中国金龙 指数上涨 3.73%，人民币汇率大幅度升值到 7.21 附近，不难看出五一假期内全 球资产呈现 risk-on 定价。 大盘指数在 4 月符合我们《这是一个"黄金坑"！》的预判，上证综指一度突破 3300 点，在接近"出坑"之后，面向 5 月我们依然认为大盘指数会转入"震荡 市"思维，对应"强预期、弱现实"定价状态，但没有明显"二次探底"风险。 1、当前一个积极的重要因素是中美关税博弈出现降温迹象，这意味着在节后 risk-on 趋势大概率会进一步扩散至 A 股市场。事实上，从 4 月下旬以来美方 率先释放缓和信号，4 月 22 日美财长贝森特表示他预计与中国的贸易战"在不 久的将来"将会"降级（de-es ...

2025 年 05 月 05 日 兴业银行(601166.SH) 资产端质量平稳、结构优化——兴业银行 2025 年一季度业绩点评 事件：兴业银行披露 2025 年一季度报告，营业收入同比下降 3.58%，拨备前利润同比下降 4.35%，归母净利润同比下降 2.22%， 营收、利润增速较 2024 年报增速均略有下行，我们点评如下： 2025 年一季度兴业银行业绩主要受生息资产规模扩张、拨备反 哺驱动，净非息收入下降是拖累业绩增长的最大因素。 量：规模平稳扩张，主动调整信贷结构 ①资产端：2025 年一季度末，兴业银行资产规模同比增长 3.65%，增 速环比提高 0.21pct；其中，贷款总额同比增长 4.83%。从增量来看， 兴业银行 2025 年一季度资产总额单季度增长 1234 亿元，金融投资 延续了 2024 年下半年的扩张趋势，单季度新增 1002 亿；贷款单季度 新增 788 亿元。从生息资产结构来看，一季度全行一般公司贷款占比 环比提升 1.02pct 到 34.27%、金融投资占比环比提升 0.5pct 到 34.63%。 对公投放逐季恢复。2024 年下半年以来一般公司贷款逐渐回暖。2025 ...

国投证券宏观定期报告 周度经济观察 ————内需维持稳定，外需压力初现 袁方1 张端怡（联系人）2魏薇（联系人）3 2025 年 5 月 5 日 内容提要 4 月 PMI 的量价和分项数据表明，美国对华关税政策升级以来出口明显降 温，总需求收缩压力有所增加，二季度经济相对一季度或将减速。 五一期间人员流动、景区游客人数和消费数据表明，居民消费活动在稳步恢 复。居民出行与以旧换新政策相关性较低，这暗示居民消费的恢复更多源于自发 的消费倾向回升，这一趋势在中期有望维持。 4 月美国新增非农就业数据大幅减速，失业率维持高位，工资增速小幅下滑， 这些数据表明美国劳动力市场在持续降温。一季度 GDP 数据与 4 月劳动力市场 数据显示特朗普政策不确定性对经济的影响已经显现，未来这一影响或将延续。 风险提示：（1）地缘政治风险 （2）政策出台超预期 本报告版权属于国投证券股份有限公司，各项声明请参见报告尾页。 1宏观团队负责人，yuanfang@essence.com.cn，S1450520080004 2联系人，zhangdy2@essence.com.cn，S1450123040002 3联系人，weiwei2@es ...

2025 年 05 月 05 日 招商银行(600036.SH) 一波三折—招商银行 2025 年一季报点评 事件：招商银行公布 2025 年一季报，营收同比增长-3.09%，拨 备前利润同比增长-4%，归母净利润同比增长-2.08%，各项业绩指 标增速较 2024 年报均略有下行，与 2024 年一季报情景较为类 似，我们点评如下： 招商银行 2025 年一季度业绩增长主要依靠规模扩张所驱动，而 净息差同比收窄、非息收入增长放缓则对利润增长形成拖累。 规模扩张速度与去年四季度大致相当。今年一季度，招商银行 生息资产（日均余额口径）同比增长 8.7%，较 2024Q4 增速基本 持平，仍处于去年初以来较快增长阶段，其中信贷增速基本平稳， 信贷扩张节奏仍偏低，而金融投资增速较 2024Q4 提升约 2 个百 分点，同业类资产增速略有放缓。从单季度新增生息资产规模（日 均余额口径）来看，今年 Q1 新增生息资产 1766 亿元，同比多增 84 亿元，其中新增信贷同比多增 62 亿元，而新增金融投资同比 多增 595 亿元。资产配置结构显示，当前有效信贷需求不足是资 产投放的核心矛盾。 进一步观察信贷结构，我们以招 ...

2025 年 05 月 05 日 医药 25Q1 医药板块分化明显，创新引领中 长期增长 医药行业整体业绩： （1）业绩方面：根据我们系统性优化过的国投证券医药板块分类， 2024 年度，医药板块整体营收同比下滑 1.73%，归母净利润同比 下滑 14.06%，扣非净利润同比下滑 14.86%；25Q1 单季度来看， 医药板块整体营收同比下滑 4.34%，归母净利润同比下滑 8.87%， 扣非净利润同比下滑 10.86%。 （2）估值方面：2024 年 9 月底以来，医药板块估值出现了一轮 较为显著的上行，目前 PE 中枢维持在 30 倍附近窄幅波动，虽然 较前期低点已实现显著修复，但整体仍处于历史偏低水平。 （3）基金持仓方面：2025Q1，全部公募基金对医药板块的持仓比 例为 9.05%，环比上升 0.47pct；剔除医药主题基金后的持仓比例 为 3.63%，环比上升 0.05pct；同期医药股在 A 股总市值中占比为 6.25%，环比上升 0.18pct；2025Q1 全部基金超配 2.80pct，非药 基金低配 2.62pct。 化学制剂： 2024 年化学制剂板块整体营收同比增长 1.97%，归 母 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Chengdu Bank is "Accumulate-A" with a 6-month target price of 18.87 CNY, compared to the current stock price of 16.98 CNY [4]. Core Views - Chengdu Bank has demonstrated robust growth in both revenue and profit, with a revenue growth rate of 5.89% for 2024 and a net profit growth rate of 10.17% for the same year. For Q1 2025, the revenue increased by 3.17% year-on-year, and net profit grew by 5.64% [1][9]. - The bank's performance is primarily driven by the expansion of interest-earning assets, although net interest margin compression has been a significant drag on growth [1][8]. - The bank's asset quality remains strong, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.66% and a provision coverage ratio of 456% as of Q1 2025 [9][21]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Chengdu Bank's total assets grew by 14.56% year-on-year to reach a total of 285 billion CNY by the end of 2024, with a significant increase in loans by 18.76% [1][2]. - For Q1 2025, total assets increased by 13.25% year-on-year, with loans contributing significantly to this growth [1][2]. Loan Growth - Corporate loans showed steady growth, with balances increasing by 20.31% year-on-year by the end of 2024 and 17.69% by the end of Q1 2025 [2]. - Retail loans also performed well, with a year-on-year growth of 12.46% by the end of 2024 and 13.37% by the end of Q1 2025 [3]. Deposit Growth - Total deposits increased by 13.20% year-on-year by the end of 2024 and 15.40% by the end of Q1 2025, with retail deposits showing a significant rise [3][7]. Non-Interest Income - Non-interest income grew by 24.11% year-on-year in Q4 2024, primarily driven by investment income, while fee income saw a decline [9][21]. Asset Quality - The bank maintained a low non-performing loan ratio of 0.66% and a strong provision coverage ratio, indicating solid risk management [9][21]. Future Outlook - Chengdu Bank is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 8.17% and a profit growth of 9.25% in 2025, supported by its strong asset quality and robust loan growth strategy [9][10].

2025 年 05 月 05 日 邮储银行(601658.SH) 规模扩张平稳，负债成本占优——邮储银行 2025 年一季报点评 事件：邮储银行披露 2025 年一季度报告，2025 年一季度营收 同比下降 0.07%；拨备前利润同比增长 6.20%；归母净利润同比下 降 2.62%，我们点评如下： 从驱动因素来看，生息资产规模扩张和成本压降是业绩增长的 主要支撑，净息差收窄、拨备计提力度加大则拖累了业绩增长。 量：规模稳健扩张，对公信贷增速居于大行首位 ①资产端：2025 年一季度末，邮储银行总资产同比增长 8.31%，增速 保持平稳。其中贷款总额同比增长 9.78%，金融投资同比增长 9.45%， 同比增速高于总资产增速。从增量来看，全行资产总额单季度新增 6045 亿元，信贷总额单季度新增 4430 亿元，是最主要的增量来源。 一季度末，贷款净额占生息资产的比例环比提升 0.76pct 至 53.32%。 与此同时，邮储银行同业资产占总资产的比例环比升高 0.36pct 至 5.35%。后续随注资落地，邮储银行规模扩张基础将更加坚实。 对公贷款高速增长。2025 年一季度末，邮储银行一般公司贷款同比 增 ...