Group 1: Market Trends - OPEC Secretary-General predicts strong growth in oil demand over the next 25 years[4] - World Bank lowers global GDP growth forecast from 2.7% to 2.3%[4] - Fitch downgrades outlook for global sovereign ratings to "deteriorating"[4] Group 2: Economic Data - Nasdaq index closed at 19,714.99, up 0.63%[6] - Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 42,866.87, up 0.25%[6] - S&P 500 closed at 6,038.81, up 0.55%[6] - 2-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 2.3 basis points to 4.016%[4] - 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 0.4 basis points to 4.470%[4] Group 3: Corporate Developments - OpenAI's annual recurring revenue surpasses $10 billion[4] - TSMC reported May revenue of NT$320.52 billion, a year-on-year increase of 39.6%[4] - Tencent Music plans to acquire Himalaya Holdings[4]

2025 年 6 月 10 日星期二 【实时热点】 【美国债市】 2 年期美债收益率跌 4.15 个基点报 3.993% 资料来源：BLOOMBERG、AASTOCKS、WIND、格隆汇、国元证券经纪（香港）整理 请务必阅读免责条款 证 券 研 1 【经济数据】 究 报 告 美国会预算办公室：美国可能会在 8 月中旬用尽避免债务触 及上限的措施 美联储调查：5 月消费者通胀预期全面下降，为 2024 年来 首次 日本修正后 GDP 萎缩收窄至 0.2% 中国对沙特等 4 国试行免签政策 中国 5 月 CPI 同比降 0.1%，PPI 同比降幅扩大至 3.3% 海关总署：前 5 个月货物贸易进出口同比增长 2.5% 5 月全国乘用车市场零售 196 万辆，同比增 13.9% 英国金融监管机构与英伟达达成合作，为银行 AI 实验提供 安全沙盒 亚马逊拟在宾夕法尼亚州投资 200 亿美元用于 AI 和云计算 星巴克中国将发力非咖啡饮品市场 5 年期美债收益率跌 4.39 个基点报 4.079% 10 年期美债收益率跌 3.18 个基点报 4.474% 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25, ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 6.1 per share, indicating a potential upside of 20.6% from the current price of HKD 5.06 [5][7][20]. Core Insights - The company is transitioning into a full-stack AI product and service provider, with significant growth expected from its AIGC (Artificial Intelligence Generated Content) business, which is becoming a key driver of revenue [2][9]. - The company is actively participating in the construction of digital currency systems and exploring opportunities in stablecoins and Real World Assets (RWA) tokenization, leveraging its expertise in big data, AI, blockchain, and cloud computing [4][17]. Financial Performance - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue of RMB 16.95 billion, a slight decline of 1.0% year-on-year, with a net profit of RMB 512.9 million, down 28.1% [8][20]. - The second half of 2024 is expected to show a recovery, with a significant increase in revenue from full-stack AI products and services, which is projected to reach RMB 957 million, accounting for 5.6% of total revenue [2][12]. Strategic Developments - The company is deepening its collaboration with Huawei, enhancing its KaihongOS applications and completing over 200 Huawei cloud CTSP projects, which strengthens its cloud integration and domestic substitution strategy [3][13]. - The company is also focusing on international expansion, establishing a presence in the Asia-Pacific and Middle Eastern markets, and successfully executing projects in digital governance and smart cities [14][16]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are RMB 18.22 billion (+6.1%), RMB 20.01 billion (+9.86%), and RMB 22.32 billion (+11.5%), respectively, with net profits expected to grow significantly during this period [5][20]. - The report emphasizes that the company is in a transitional phase, moving from traditional service adjustments to emerging business growth, supported by national policy initiatives [20].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 1.30 per share, indicating a potential upside of 23% from the current price of HKD 1.06 [6][12]. Core Insights - The company plans to list a solar power plant REIT, which will activate existing assets and alleviate cash flow pressure due to delayed subsidies. This move is expected to lower financial leverage and financing costs through equity financing [3][9]. - Recent electricity pricing policies are anticipated to stabilize the revenue from existing projects, while green electricity direct connection initiatives will promote local consumption of renewable energy [4][10]. - The company's financing costs are on a downward trend, with a significant shift from HKD loans to lower-interest RMB loans, expected to further decrease to 3% by 2025. The company has sufficient power station reserves for acquisition [5][11]. Financial Summary - For FY2023, the company reported revenues of RMB 2,281 million, with a projected increase to RMB 2,500 million in FY2025, reflecting a growth rate of 2.4% [7][18]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to recover from RMB 791 million in FY2024 to RMB 940 million in FY2025, marking an 18.9% increase [7][18]. - The basic earnings per share are projected to be 11.23 cents in FY2025, with a corresponding PE ratio of 8.6 at the current price [7][18].

Core Insights - The report highlights that the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 139,000 in May, surpassing market expectations [3] - The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts later this year are discussed, with comments from Fed officials indicating a possibility of a rate reduction [3] - A Harvard report suggests that China's biotechnology sector is expected to surpass that of the U.S. [3] Economic Data - The Baltic Dry Index closed at 1633.00, up by 0.43% [4] - The Nasdaq Index closed at 19,529.95, increasing by 1.20% [4] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 42,762.87, rising by 1.05% [4] - The S&P 500 Index closed at 6,000.36, up by 1.03% [4] - The price of ICE Brent crude oil was $66.65, an increase of 2.00% [4] - The U.S. dollar index stood at 99.20, up by 0.46% [4] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23,792.54, down by 0.48% [4] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,385.36, slightly up by 0.04% [4]

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in the US import total for April, amounting to $350.99 billion, which represents a month-over-month decrease of 16.3% [4] - The US initial jobless claims for the previous week were recorded at 247,000, exceeding market expectations [4] - The European Central Bank has lowered three key interest rates by 25 basis points, aligning with market expectations [4] - Several automotive companies are considering relocating parts of their production to China [4] - China's Caixin Services PMI for May increased to 51.1, up by 0.4 percentage points from April [4] - The retail sales of passenger vehicles in China for May reached 1.93 million units, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 13% [4] - Circle, a stablecoin company, saw its stock rise by 167.2% on its IPO debut [4] - Procter & Gamble announced a layoff of 7,000 employees [4] - The wholesale price of Moutai has dropped below 2,000 yuan in some regions [4] Economic Data Summary - The Baltic Dry Index closed at 1489.00, up by 4.13% [5] - The Nasdaq Index closed at 19,298.45, down by 0.83% [5] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 42,319.74, down by 0.25% [5] - The S&P 500 closed at 5,939.30, down by 0.53% [5] - The USD/CNY exchange rate (CFETS) was 7.18, down by 0.10% [5] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23,906.97, up by 1.07% [5] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,384.10, up by 0.23% [5]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 5.66 per share, indicating a potential upside of 32% from the current price of HKD 4.30 [6][11]. Core Views - The company reported a net loss of RMB 263.01 million in Q1 2025, with multiple negative factors already released, including operational losses and significant asset impairments. Support from TBEA Group and proactive measures like accounts receivable factoring are expected to help the company navigate through this challenging period [3][8]. - The supply-demand balance for polysilicon is improving slowly, with 2025 performance likely to remain under pressure due to high inventory levels and weak demand. However, the report notes that the downside for polysilicon prices is limited at this stage [4][9]. - The company's value is considered severely underestimated when accounting for its solar and wind power station construction and operational assets. The revenue composition for 2024 shows polysilicon contributing 37.4%, while wind and solar projects contribute 35.9% and 11.3%, respectively [5][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In FY2023, the company reported revenues of RMB 30,752 million, which is expected to decline to RMB 21,213 million in FY2024, and further to RMB 20,518 million in FY2025, reflecting a decrease of 18.1% and 31.0% respectively. A return to growth is anticipated in FY2026 with revenues projected at RMB 21,898 million [7][14]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be negative in FY2024 and FY2025, with losses of RMB 3,905 million and RMB 875 million, respectively. A recovery is expected in FY2026 with a net profit of RMB 1,098 million [7][14]. Market Conditions - As of June 4, 2025, the average transaction prices for n-type and p-type polysilicon are reported at RMB 37,500 per ton and RMB 31,300 per ton, respectively. The industry is currently operating under a self-discipline framework, with production quotas limiting significant fluctuations in output [4][9]. Asset Valuation - The report emphasizes that the company's operational solar and wind power assets, totaling approximately 3.5 GW, significantly contribute to its overall value, which is not fully reflected in the current market price [5][10].

Key Points - The report highlights a significant increase in the US ADP employment numbers for May, which rose by 37,000, falling short of expectations [4] - The Federal Reserve's "Beige Book" indicates a pessimistic outlook on the economic prospects [4] - The Canadian central bank has maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2.75% for the second consecutive time, aligning with market expectations [4] - Japan's newborn population is projected to fall below 700,000 for the first time in 2024 [4] - The European Central Bank has officially approved Bulgaria's entry into the Eurozone [4] - China is considering ordering hundreds of Airbus aircraft [4] - The first domestically produced nine-valent HPV vaccine has been approved for market [4] - Tesla's sales in Europe continued to plummet in May [4] - The 2-year US Treasury yield decreased by 8.25 basis points to 3.862% [4] - The 5-year US Treasury yield fell by 9.75 basis points to 3.923% [4] - The 10-year US Treasury yield dropped by 9.85 basis points to 4.355% [4] Economic Data - The Baltic Dry Index closed at 1430.00, up by 0.56% [5] - The Nasdaq Index closed at 19,460.49, increasing by 0.32% [5] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 42,427.74, down by 0.22% [5] - The ICE Brent crude oil price was at 64.91, down by 1.10% [5] - The London gold spot price closed at 3,371.89, up by 0.57% [5] - The US dollar index was at 98.81, decreasing by 0.47% [5] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23,654.03, up by 0.60% [5] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,376.20, increasing by 0.42% [5] - The Shenzhen Composite Index closed at 1,999.61, up by 0.92% [5] - The CSI 300 Index closed at 3,868.74, increasing by 0.43% [5] - The ChiNext Index closed at 2,024.93, up by 1.11% [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 21.89 per share, indicating a potential upside of 55% from the current price of HKD 14.12 [4][7][16]. Core Insights - The company is advancing its CD47xCD20 bispecific antibody, IMM0306, which shows promising results in clinical trials for autoimmune diseases, particularly systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) [8][4]. - The IMM2510, a PD-L1xVEGF bispecific antibody, has demonstrated an objective response rate (ORR) of 23% in previously treated non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients, with expectations for further data release in late 2025 [10][11]. - The safety and efficacy of the CD47 fusion protein, IMM01, are highlighted, showing an ORR of 69.7% in relapsed/refractory classical Hodgkin lymphoma when combined with PD-1 antibodies [13][14]. Summary by Sections Clinical Development - IMM0306 is currently in Phase Ib trials for autoimmune diseases, with 10 patients enrolled in SLE trials and positive response rates expected to be reported in June [8]. - The company is the first globally to enter clinical trials with a CD47xCD20 bispecific antibody, which has shown an ORR of 88.2% and a complete response (CR) of 52.9% when used with lenalidomide for refractory follicular lymphoma [8]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at RMB 2.01 billion, RMB 1.22 billion, and RMB 3.12 billion, respectively, with net losses expected to decrease over the same period [4][16]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 18912% in 2024 and 171.1% in 2025 [5][18]. Market Position - The company is positioned as a leader in the development of CD47 fusion proteins, with a competitive landscape that includes only a few other players in the CD47 target research [16]. - The report notes a growing interest in bispecific antibodies within the autoimmune sector, with significant business development (BD) opportunities anticipated due to the scarcity of innovative biological drugs in this field [8][16].

Economic Data - The U.S. government announced an increase in import tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50%, while maintaining a 25% tariff on the UK[4] - The April JOLTs job openings in the U.S. reached 7.391 million, exceeding the expected 7 million[4] - The Eurozone's May CPI preliminary year-on-year increase was 1.9%, lower than market expectations[4] - China's May Caixin Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.3, marking the first drop below the critical point since October 2024[4] - The total national social logistics volume in China grew by 5.6% year-on-year in the first four months[4] Market Performance - The Nasdaq index closed at 19,398.96, up by 0.81%[5] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 42,519.64, up by 0.51%[5] - The S&P 500 index closed at 5,970.37, up by 0.58%[5] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23,512.49, up by 1.53%[5] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 1.38 basis points to 4.454%[4]